Does Losing Lead to Winning? An Analysis of the Winning Paradox in Sports
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- čas přidán 24. 05. 2024
- A comeback happens seemingly every game…but do teams actually play better when their losing…? And worse when they’re ahead?
In this video, we analyze the elasticity of comebacks (specifically in the NBA) and the studies done around potential causation. The NBA has long been a league where it is known that a 10-20 point lead can evaporate within one quarter…but how much of this is an actual trend, and how much of this is just narratives that float to the top of 30 teams playing a lot of games?
The Midrange Theory Book: rb.gy/346w2j
00:00 The Comeback…
00:50 Strange Night in Salt Lake
02:18 Analysis - The RubberBand Effect
05:18 Risk-Averse vs. Risk-Neutral
07:56 Reversion? Not quite…
09:30 Defense…Motivation…Ghosts
11:30 Does Losing Lead to Winning (basketball)?
13:35 Misunderstanding Risk…
#nba #nbaanalysis #sports #nfl
I'm glad the algorithm gods lead me to this channel
You’re not wrong
I agree. Had to cancel hella thrash subs for a deece suggestion.
Me too!
Real stuff
Absolutely thinking the exact same thing
In Sun Tzu's Art of War he said "Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."
Meaning to never fully corner an enemy because a fleeing enemy is easier to kill than an enemy that is cornered fighting to the death. It's interesting how this still applies even in sports. Teams that are down (cornered) play better because they are "fighting to the death".
Sun Tze is not implying 'to kill' the enemy but to let them 'escape' so we win the War as well as the Battle.
@@joso7228I think both of your interpretations are correct
Miyamoto Mushashi says hi.
Lol not the pistons
pistons be like:
Paul George explained in his podcast. The teams that's winning doesn't make adjustments. The teams that's losing try harder and makes adjustments.
I don't think this is that much of a mystery. Seems obvious to me. Complacency versus desperation.
Joe mazzulla has been doing it lately, making adjustments from up ahead. He’s definitely a bit psycho but maybe that’s what it takes these days
I think its hard because people dont want to reduce it to caveman announcer jargon like "they just wanted it more" but when two teams are near the same level talent wise as most pro teams tend to be it can matter. @@ParaditeRs
@@ramzeezthamightygodand man, do we Celtics fans love Bazooka Joe
@@hirshja we either love him or hate him.. but either way stick to your beliefs and don’t flip flop lollll.
People get on his case for his timeouts but I don’t see other coaches around the league when their team leading by 15 calls a timeout the moment he sees stupid basketball being played… and they get back in the game to explode
I believe this is the only channel that focuses solely on sports philosophy and marrying statistics and psychology. Please keep doing what you’re doing, it is appreciated.
This. On the way to being one of the best channels on the platform. Big fan already.
Go listen to the Thinking Basketball podcast.
Ben Taylor is a cognitive scientist by trade and he's a data analyst so you get a similar blend of psychology, philosophy, analytics and film study.
The CZcams videos are more straightforward, based on film study, but the podcast and book deal a lot with philosophical questions and challenge a lot of our assumptions about the game.
It's not the only one but yeah they are rare
I think something worth mentioning is that the average person is risk-averse. And in a world where this is the tendency, it is to your advantage being a risk-taker. Also, the feeling of making a comeback is a sort of high and losing a lead makes you feel like you are an impostor. When there is this vast difference in emotions, while hard to measure, makes teams look like someone else is playing on the field or court.
Yes. All this leads right into Prospect Theory…but in a strange way, we tend to be overconfident in many other realms (Dunning-Krueger). That relationship has always confused the living hell out of me - we are afraid of loss in many ways…yet overly confident and unafraid in shit we don’t understand…
@@michaelmackelvie Then the ideal situation is to be unaware of how difficult and strenuous an undertaking will be while diving headfirst into it with full confidence. Otherwise we either never try or go in so tentatively that we sabotage our own chances of success. I think it explains why so many of the most successful people in the world are not particularly self-aware or self-conscious.
@@michaelmackelvieI think risk aversion in athletes is an example of an expert fearing a realistic outcome. People who are on the ignorant side of the dunning Krueger effect don’t know the outcome that they have to be afraid of. They are unaware of the risk. That’s why confidence drops off so fast.
For whatever reason, we're not afraid enough of what we don't know, and too afraid of what we do know.
@@michaelmackelvielike how doctors and professors feel they still have a lot to learn about their subject while keyboard warriors believe they can lecture them on the same thing.
So it's a fact that teams who are ahead sacrifice points for less variance.
There's essentially 2 possibile conclusions:
1. This sacrifice is premature and hurts a teams chance of winning
2. It is a smart sacrifice and increases a team's chance of winning at the cost of points
exactly. the youtuber should have addressed the 2. you said
Suppose a team is in the lead by 10 with only 1 minute on the clock, the winning team should chose to decease pace of the game (less efficient offense on average, but also decrease variance by decreasing the amount of possessions).
When your team is winning by 10, you should be making plays that are -2 on average but with + or - 5 in variation... over making plays that are +2 on average but with + or - 15 in variation.
Yes. Recommend watching the AlphaGo documentary on AI rescinding points differential as a proxy for winning the game.
@@bohanxu6125he did address that exactly he said he wasn’t talking ab end of game scenarios
i think it might be somewhere right between those two
sacrificing points is idiotic...but its great for ratings
dont ever forget this is a bisness......which profits more the more people stay tuned in...blowouts kill rating and profits
“Even at the highest level, risk averse is an oxymoron”
Excellent video
Incorrect. The AlphaGo documentary proved that points differential isn’t an accurate proxy for percentage chance of winning the game
@@MDH16477 Where is that?
It sounds nice but just confuses two meanings of the word 'risk'.
I don't agree with that part. Freezing or not doing anything is not being risk averse. It is a completely different thing. Risk averse is not oxymoron. He meant to say removing risk is oxymoron. Risk averseness is not about that. I am a risk manager at a bank, not doing any trade is not the definition of risk averseness.
@@MDH16477 It doesn't work that way in Go because the point system for games like Go is somewhat arbitrary due to the nature of the game. In games where the point system determines the game's winner, point differential being an accurate proxy for percentage chance of winning the game is *almost* universally true--it doesn't explain ALL of the variance but it explains most of it.
So many factors:
One not mentioned: officiating, allowing more aggressive play by losing team, "not piling on," tendency to avoid calling "insignificant" fouls
Others mentioned or alluded to:
*Risk adverse (suboptimal) strategy by the winning team
*Regression to the mean by both teams
*Increased effort by losing team
*Less effort) by winning team
*Major Strategy changes ("adjustments" "desperation") by the losing team
*Playing looser - losing team
*Playing tighter - winning team
Very interesting topic
regression to the mean doesn't mean a comeback. It seems to be a popular misunderstanding of statistics, it's the gambler's fallacy to think so.
@@MrRumcajs1000in many (most?) cases where there is a much bigger point differential than expected, it is because one team is outshooting their average while the other team is under performing their average. In that super common example, regression to the mean is exactly the correct term.
@@CleverAccountName303 I said regression to the mean doesn't explain a comeback. It would only explain that the lead stops growing disproportionally. You're not addressing this
@@MrRumcajs1000 I never Said the word comeback. The phenomenon (early success leads to later underperformance and vice versa for the other team) also happens when the better team is down early, in which case both teams playing average for the rest of the game would get you your comeback.
@@CleverAccountName303 the whole video talks about the effect of losing on performance and is based on data adjusted for the point spread. Regression to the mean is also specifically shown around 2:45 as an example of what this rubberband effect is not (it's more than that).
Regression to the mean is not a factor of this effect. Yes, the losing team can catch up as an effect of this. It can also fall back more. It doesn't make or explain teams performing better on average when they're losing.
This is the most brilliant sports channel in all of media - not just CZcams. I’m blown away by the insight and quality, and I’m clearly not alone.
Thanks Ryan! We put a lot of work into it…comments like this provide a little more fuel during those late nights…
@@michaelmackelvie what i know is creating a gmail account that comes with a youtube account doesnt make you a youtuber, if you really put alot of work on your craft, it will show... nothing really shows here, just click bait. do us a favor and delete the gmail account (you get what i mean) and save us a huge favor so you wont show up on our suggested videos. think of it as decluttering youtube and the internet. thanks!
@@jkfan2011 LMAO Hard disagree. Michael puts out quality essays. He's managed to make sport psychology interesting to me in a way that no one else has. The lessons and analysis he shares have me naturally expanding these ideas into other areas of life, something I used to consider absurd.
You can tell just by the level of the comments. Been scrolling a bit and haven't seen a single fight or insult yet. Looks like a safe space to talk 😂
@@jkfan2011lol do you have a personal problem with this dude or you're just mentally challenged?
There is this saying: "Two goals is the worse lead in hockey". The amount of two-goal comback, 3-1 -> 4-3, is pretty staggering
more time for comeback?! probably doesn't explain all the difference, but certainly a good amount.
A similar thing happens in NFL with 10 point leads. The team that's ahead plays it safe on offense & punts. Other team scores. Its a 3pts game, leading team still worried about time, makes soft decisions, punts. Other team scores. Wins.
Nailed it right on the head. There are so many dualities between life and basketball. I've often had the belief that its much harder to get to stellar from average than it is to get from awful to stellar because the drive just isnt as prevalent. In other words, if the suck doesnt suck enough, there's not enough motivation to change. It seems this video kind of reinforces that. Phenomenal video yet again, please keep this up.
Psychology is nuts and we’re irrational creatures. So fascinating
This was excellent! I have been loving your basketball content.
Basketball has so much room to apply statistics, and so many seemingly unanswerable questions.
Keep up the great work.
Thank you!
until Vegas corrected for it, the best bet you could make was that a Heavily Favored Team playing on the road would not cover the spread.
Exactly for the reasons you list here.
The home team's tenacity goes up and their focus rises, not just as a function of competitiveness, but also to not disgrace themselves in front of their own fans. It is also likely they know the spread and want to bust it - a small victory in itself
The production quality of your videos is incredible. Your attention to detail is top notch and I’m glad I found your channel!
"The balance of thinking and doing". You combined an entertaining basketball video with some inspiration for the viewer which is really cool. Thanks for the vid!
This is the best sports content channel out there right now. And I mean even better than the ones that are televised, sponsored, and heavily promoted. Your channel deserves so much more attention. Please keep up the good work!
Dude, I just wanted to tell you that your content is absolutely incredible. Keep going man, you just earned a loyal subscriber!!!!!!
One of the highest quality and insightful channels out there!
These videos are so good - I love how they answer some really interesting questions about sport as well as providing a broader lesson about life
Back at it with another awesome video. Keep up the great work Michael!
The quality and work put into this video is staggering and evident. You deserve more attention and I’m sure you will get it soon.
Man this was an outstanding video. Great work! Will certainly subscribe
Wow, I am so glad that algorthrim led me to your channel. Your content is amazing! Can't wait to see how big of an audience you grow in the future. Keep up the good work.
If I could go and redo school, I would wanna do an extensive study on the psychology of defensive effort across team sports. That locked in effort. It's no comtroversy to say thay offensive skill is both valued higher and seen as the more challenging to both acquire and maintain, but there's something about defense that brings out the rawest form of every athlete. The pure DESPERATION that you see players and teams feel and use as extra energy is endlessly fascinating to me and I wish I'd noticed it as a kid.
What’s stopping you from learning in your own time i.e books/study’s?
especially in soccer
Your channel is actually amazing, some of the most insightful pieces on sports I've seen, and especially interesting since it tends to look at issues more globally rather than very specific. Keep up the good work and I'm sure at some point you can reach a million subscribers!
Thank you!
Another great video. The production and content quality are 10/10, and the way you are able to weave in anecdotes from your own experience give the videos a more personal feel and really add to the entertainment value.
Thank you! The writing takes time, but it’s my favorite part…
Agreed with this comment, this video felt great@@michaelmackelvie
Strategy happens in turns. You adjust to the opponent and then the opponent adjusts to you.
If you get used to winning a certain way, it will always become harder to win that way over time as opponents learn your strategy and adjust.
incredibly well done. shooting, editing, sound design, writing, storytelling. it all had me hooked.
Very high quality of production. Subscibed. Lookinh forward to more.
No idea how I came across this video, but what a video. Very well made and you have my Sub, look forward to delving through your past videos!
A banger as always
Another one
would love to see a video on how momentum affects the way a team plays and i believe this can best be analyzed in college sports. Videos are incredible though keep up the great work!
The content, editing, pacing. I enjoyed this video so much. I subscribed so fast !!
Thank you!
So happy the algorithm has brought me to this channel, it´s so interesting
WE NEED MORE. Please make more videos, more often 😅 highest quality content and most interesting subject matter of any channel on CZcams. (Obviously I know that your content can’t just be pumped out by the day, it takes time to prepare and explain such unique and interesting concepts.) But man. This is good. Thanks for awesome videos
One aspect that deserves study. What created the early point differential in the first place.. for example if a hit 100 % of their 3 point shots early.. and created a double digit lead, it's very unlikely they can continue hitting 100% .. and the lead shrink as they 'come back to earth'
So it may not be the team with the lead changed play calling .. but the odds catches up with them.
This video gave me chills from start to finish, ain't no damn way I'm not subscribing to this channel
Great video! Great analysis. Instinctively, on paper, it feels like leads and comebacks can just be chalked up to multiple regressions to the mean - but, of course, there’s a lot more psychology in high pressure sports situations
I'm glad that I saw this video.
The way you explained everything is amazing.
Felt like I needed to know this.
Just found your channel from the algorithm recommending this vid, was an awesome video to watch as a big basketball fan
Thanks man! Much appreciated
this video is under looked. theres alot of advanced information in this, thanks alot !
Really solid content here. Glad this was recommended! This is what CZcams is about
Thanks man! Much appreciated...
The depth of analysis, production quality, and subtle comedy...... This is better than ESPN 30 For 30. Keep up the good work, you deserve huge views Mike!
great video, many thanks, I like the style of the series... and hope to see something on analyzing defensive prowess at some point despite what you call its "ghost-chasing" nature :-)
this channel is amazing, been binging your videos all day
Thank you Nicholas!
your quality and level of thinking is great man! keep at it
Thank you! Much appreciated
What a great video. All around, really really good.
Again another amazing video! Especially the conclusion was incredibly!!! Also really love your deep, soft voice haha
Been loving the last few videos! Subscribed
Very quickly becoming my favorite channel, thanks for all the effort you put into these ❤
Just saw the Grizzlies going from down 20 to after ja coming back after the 25 game suspension hitting a buzzer beater on the Pelicans and after that the warriors won in OT down 14 after curry hit a dagger 3 on Boston what a textbook style comback
Quickly becoming a favorite channel!
I wanna see someone breakdown the true dollar value of a player
This channel man, wow, wow, wow, I love sports, mostly a football (soccer guy) but I watch the NBA and American Football and F1 and Track and Field (I am 🇯🇲).
Keep up the good work, I like the deeper level from which you analyze things.
idk if you will read this, but I absolutely love your videos and its style. keep doing what u r doing and I wish all the good to you my man.
Unbelievably great youtube channel and vid. Cant wait for the day you'll inevitably hit 1M subs
Thanks man! Much appreciated
Reminds me of the words of Marcelo Bielsa, (watch?v=IiyvmXsBhC4) who cut through the noise of this exact debate in soccer more clearly than anyone had before:
"it's an error to think that in order to maintain a lead you should do the opposite of what you did to obtain it".
Bielsa was asked why his Leeds team, when winning 4-1, chose not to defend closer to their own goal and put men behind the ball (the standard form of 'risk averse play' in soccer). Bielsa instead chose to maintain his standard ultra attacking approach and defended his stance thus. When this press conference went viral the entirety of football twitter lost its mind saying, essentially, 'it sounds so obvious when you put it like that!'. Or as a French soccer coach I know put it, playing with more defenders doesn't mean you defend better, it means you defend more.
This is exactly why sports (and perhaps war) is the truest exhibition of the human spirit. It is not a monochromatic battlefield in which opposing sides behave rationally, like bespoke computer systems with predictable movements and patterns. Rather, it is a dizzying display of highs and lows, of championing from the darkest depths and falling from unchallengeable heights. Sports capture the unthinkable; they are perhaps the most potent concentration of our animalistic, wild propensity to defy odds and desires in the name of ego.
Amazing Channel! I just wish you uploaded more content, terrific work!
fantastic vid, wish content like this had a passageway into the algorithm, its as good as it gets on yt.
Incredibly well illustrated points. I've been trying to articulate this phenomenon for years. I havent crunched the numbers acutely, but the prevent defence in the NFL has done more harm than good IMO. Far too many times there are teams that go 75 yards in 45 seconds, 15 yards at a time due to such loose defensive play calling.
Underrated channel. Keep growing in the sports niche man. These videos are awesome.
This effect is intentionally built into videogames to make games more exciting by artificially balancing competition. Midway (the makers of NBA Jam) were notorious for it and Mario Kart famously distributes power-up items in a way to help losing players make a comeback.
There is also the comeback mechanic "rage art" in Tekken 7 that let's players use something comparable to an "ultimate attack" when they are close to dying.
I think referees play a role in this phenomenon as well. When one team is behind, it can be easy to subconsciously give marginal calls to them to make the game more competitive.
Agreed so much here as an official
Great production value, but I couldn’t help but feel like it was mostly fluff to an extent. Compelling intro and premise, but it stayed in second gear for most of the video. That said, I’m subscribing and glad to find this channel. Lots of potential. Hope to see more!
Always back with a banger
Great video. I wish someone did an explanation of the effect for football. As I would guess it has a slightly different form in a low-scoring game. Basically high posession time is the desired tactic of most coaches, both in the pros and below. And with every goal counting as one goal you can‘t easily choose between efficient offense and inefficient offense.
Football is more obvious. Teams clearly try to manage a lead by running more and teams that need a score become more aggressive and better. They play prevent defenses.
Bsolz got me to watch you I hope you get big bro amazing analysis
I love these unique basketball videos! Well done.
I think it makes sense to discuss this principle in a concrete context like basketball/the nba. But whatever the answer is as to why this happens, it can’t be a basketball specific reason because we can observe this phenomenon across so many other domains. I like the idea that winning teams tend to trade in points for lower variance, that seems like a hypothesis that should be testable with the right data.
The video was interesting, thanks for making it!
Another great video Mike, keep it coming! In basketball and in life, gotta take some calculated risks to see any improvement or growth or success!
Great video! Really enjoyed this so thanks!
you’ve been killing it with the sports content.
Good video, audio gets a little too ASMR-y sometimes, but that’s easily sorted. Looking forward to your future uploads, man
I love the video! I’ve seen your channel for a while and loved all your content. I do got a question for you tho. Why does perception of equal players differ? Like why do people think Derek Carr is so much better than Ridder or why do people think curry is so much better than shai? No pressure to answer. Just curious.
Phenomenal video. Subscribed!
This video is insane🤯 keep it up, new favorite video creator
Risk of paralysis. Needed to hear that. Thank you
This is one of the greatest videos I've ever seen.
Thank you!
Love the content, you're easily one of the best right now
Your videos are fantastic, really enjoy them.
Your videos just keep getting better! Keep it up!
This channel is super good 👍🏼💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼 1st time I’ve come across it.
The best team and player who is the best in the clutch and comebacks is hands down - THE NUGGETS. And it is really not even close. There’s a reason why they comebacks down 3-1 twice, so many 20 point comeback wins. They just play better in the clutch, its crazy
You are my favorite new youtuber. What was your background before you started making videos?
I’ve discussed this with so many people and nobody ever noticed that “comebacks” almost always feel inevitable
I can’t lie, you are one of my favorite new channels right now. You gave such insights and a fresh kind of content into the NBA youtube scene. Keep going and take care bro
Thank you! Much appreciated…
Phenomal video, subscribed!
Love the application of Prospect theory in sports!
Great vid bro, only bad outcome is it helps me to rationalize betting on losing team 😭
glad I found this channel, thanks BSOLZ
Such an elite quality video. Definitely one of the best basketball CZcamsrs on the platform already.
Thank you!
Fascinating video and a fascinating channel!
Winning teams tend to go into "lead managment" mode until its too late and the losing team has built up some momentum and therefore confidence. Im a rockets fan and back when harden was on the team i saw it happen all the time, we would come out hot a build a decently comfortable lead, the offense would take their foot off the gas and try to use up more clock per possession, and all the while the other teams would keep grinding and putting together efficient possessions and the lead would dwindle. Then once the lead actually changes hands the team that had the lead has already started playing with desperation to cling to the lead they earned.
Look forward to seeing this channels sub count sky rocket, love the effort put in to these videos
It is a very simple and natural psychological pattern.
When you are winning with ease, you relax and don't push as hard, simply bc your brain tells you, you don't need to. ( The Tortoise and the Hare ) It is a correct assumption.
Nevertheless your opponent has pride and nothing to lose. A very powerful combination in the chemistry of life. So the whole team starts to play extra hard to at least show some self respect. Losing is OK, being demolished isn't.
But then what happens? The deficit that was 30 points goes down to 20
The team ahead feels like:"Sure they are making an effort not to look bad, but we took our foot off of the accelerator and that is why they cut 10 points from the lead".
And therefore keep relaxed on the certainty they are the superior team and have it under control.
the trailing side at this point, gathers momentum and starts believing they are not that bad and start hitting a groove and a team cohesion that just makes them stronger
When the lead gets cut to 10 points, the winning team starts to panic, leading to disarray and finger pointing, while the losing side is full steam blasting and now truly believe they can come back.
The team ahead sees that and thinks, oh f**k, what have we done.
The trailing side sees that and thinks, oh yeah baby, fear us, we are coming to get you!
That creates a downward spiral for the team ahead while creates a upwards spiral to the team behind.
If you don't have a superstar with a ton of wisdom that knows how to disrupt this with cool, calm and collected plays to curb their enthusiasm, then the come back is a matter of the clock has enough minutes.
Would love to see an analysis of NFL games along similar lines. "Prevent D prevents nothing," as is often said. And yes, would love to see an analysis of the "hot hand" - does a previous made shot positively affect the chance of the next shot going in, and vice versa. My gut says yes and it's due to something with muscle memory, sort of the opposite of the "yips." There is an awesome article about the yips that may dovetail and partially explain this rubber band effect, if you haven't read it (think choking when ahead versus performing under less pressure when behind); it's called "The long, steep hill to overcoming the yips" by Travis Sawchik. Although I don't follow baseball, it's a goldmine for statistical analysis. Thanks as always for the great content.
Adding to the anomalies in this multi-faceted phenomenon, I believe is the role of “pressure” in evoking a sense of urgency.
When I was in college, I would try so hard to get papers done early. However, no matter how hard I tried, the bulk of my writing seemed to occur as the timeline was approaching. I couldn’t “reproduce” a sense of urgency until it happened.
Another thing that is clearly going on, and I’m going to assume you bring this up as I’m currently only half way through the video, is that teams that are behind are actively trying to score as quickly as possible. Which leads to shots off of momentum and flow and shots that are less thought out.
I’ve noticed in my personal experience with basketball, that I have an involuntary shot and a voluntary shot. Think of it like breathing-sometimes, you are breathing involuntarily without thinking about it-and other times, you are consciously thinking about breathing.
When I am consciously thinking about my shot, there is less of an involuntary muscle memory.
In high pressure games, it can be easier to stop thinking and have your shot become involuntary.
This channel deserves more attention
your channel is a gem and im so happy I'm here during its explosion
its interesting seeing the metagame of youtube. How Michael started thinking about a small niche he wanted to talk about, he had found his voice, but had he found his audience? Love that your first video was very succesful and from then on there he was not able to replicate that. I dont know how or why, he went for the good production, kind of clickbaty title that he obviously does not like (but works), in a different but related topic, sports narrative driven by data. (people dont like doing statistics, studiyng statistics, but love talking them, so keep it up).
He was not convinced but las 2 videos have been about basketball and have been succesful. This, in my opinion, goes to show (1 datapoint yay). That comming into a mature market is all about quality. A good product in a big but mature market will do better than a good product in a niche market. And people choosing college wont be comming to youtube for information, but people comming for sports entretainment will.
Dont get me wrong, im incredibly biased as i like this topic more than former topics. Quick question, is this your first YT channel, because it seems incredibly polished.