Wow! Very thorough. I honestly wouldn't have picked Northern Kentucky as the favorite, but we'll see. The Cincy airport is actually in KY and is closer to NKU than some Cincinnati schools.
Very detailed. Thank you. I'd love to see you tackle possible WAC expansion candidates. I know that a lot of people think the WAC is dead, but that's been declared before and it's (currently) still here.
Much praise for the amazing amount of detail you put into this!! It is very impressive to look into all the little details on what factors into adding and not adding a school to a conference! I'll add my two cents to the expansion question: I fully agree as the best option is Northern Kentucky. Opens the Valley to the Cincy market, they have a strong basketball brand, and a financial profile that would fit in with other Valley schools, plus travel isn't as bad as I previously thought. Wright State and UW Milwaukee are decent choices too, but I understand and see how their barriers of entry would hinder them. One thing that should be taken into account is the MVFC question. With MO State leaving both the Valley proper and the football conference, that would leave both at 11 programs. Not to mention the ever-present chance of North Dakota State and South Dakota State going FBS. That is where I think St. Thomas will come into play. All their Olympic sports are in the Summit, just like the Dakota schools, and I don't see the Tommies leaving that league at the moment. However, football does compete in non-scholarship football in the Pioneer League, which shares offices with the MVC and MVFC and is led by the same commissioner as the MVFC. And given their commitment to football, its' financial backing and football's competitiveness, a jump to scholarship football will definitely be a much easier proposition for them than most other programs. So TL;DR: Northern Kentucky to the MVC, St. Thomas to the MVFC
Only 30 seconds in and I know this will be your best video so far. I’ll update with my thoughts… thanks for the effort! Thoughts: As far as I’m aware, the MVC tv deal actually expired after last season and I have not seen any online mention of an extension/new deal. The MVFC signed a new deal with ESPN which includes some linear TV broadcasts. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a new deal for the MVC that is similar to today’s but without the RSN component due to the shaky financial ground those are on right now. NKU is my pick as well. I understand the demographic arguments for UTA but to me, the odds of them being an out-of-the-way bottom-feeder are too high to be a good candidate.
I feel like the only way they add UT Arlington is if they add another TX school to make travel worth it. 2 for 1. So adding someone like Abilene Christian or Tarleton. Oral Roberts could also work.
This is by far your best analysis video. five stars. I think however it's UTA's to lose. The need for out of state students is critical for MVC schools to survive and DFW is as good as it gets (plus wealthy alumni living there). It comes down to whether the school is willing to invest in and truly promote MBB on a sustained basis. That failure knocked them out last time around. St. Thomas is intriguing. They also need to invest in MBB, and like UTA they have the resources, so again a matter of will. Minnesota HS students are probably more open to MVC schools than those from Texas. UNK has everything now, but they are the weakest of the three in terms of helping the looming enrollment cliff that has to be top priority. This is the only reason I doubt them as the choice. They may take UTA despite weak commitment. One area that kept showing up besides Dallas, St, Louis and Denver in terms of alumni was Atlanta. The one school near there is West Georgia who just moved up to the ASUN. Not sure they are worth considering (FB first), and probably nobody gave them a thought. But for alumni engagement and student recruiting perhaps you should give them a look.
Absolutely awesome! Did the Valley send you a check? You’ve essentially done their work for them?! Very detailed. If it’s 12, it’s NKU. If the Valley goes to 14, then NKU, UTA and St. Thomas. Again, great job! Thanks!
I'm curious if St. Louis University would leave the Atlantic 10, now that U. Mass has left, to return to the Missouri Valley. Also if St. Thomas can go D3 to D1, can Wash U. (Washington University in St. Louis) be invited to D1. The Bears were in the Missouri Valley decades ago, and recently purchased the campus of Fontbonne University next door. The HQ of the MVC is in St. Louis, the MVFC & Pioneer league share the location and staff.
Wash U and alot of the UAA privates schools could move to literally any D1 conference they want outside of the power 4 and Ivt league. They just won't move seperatly as they want to be in a conference with like minded schools
Saint Louis is 100% focused on a Big East invite. They're a jesuit school that is a cultural fit/travel partner with Marquette, DePaul, and Creighton, in addition to being longtime rivals with the first two during their C-USA days. They would never "step down" to the MVC while they're trying to get promoted up
The tourney expanding makes sense to me but also you'll gef more at larges if/when the PAC and WAC dissolve. Besides, it's only really gonna help the power leagues in my opinion. The one bid leagues will stay one bid leagues. The MVC and MWC will probably also get multiple bids but that's about it.
I get basketball is the main motivation but baseball plays a huge role too. the MVC is a very proud baseball conference. ORU I think would be great they’re a constant baseball and basketball program and their school is invested in those sports
The weird thing is all these Wisconsin schools have high enrollments compared to their athletic peers. Whitewater, LaCrosse, and Oshkosh have over 10k in enrollment and play D3. They will seriously argue that they can't play at a higher level due to enrollment. They have more students then UNI in some cases.
They are all in the UW system. UW-M will never allow any school with football to be D1. Same thing happened in Nebraska with UN-0 when they moved D1. UN-L made sure they killed football and wrestling as part of the move.
Alot to unpack here. But i love it. So here are just some thought beginning with my top 3 picks: 1) Milwaukee- I know they run into attendance issues but the program has been down. Bart Lundy has been a very good hire whose helped turn the program around. 2) Northern KY- This will probably be their choice. They fit all the criteria the league is looking for. Open up a brand new market. Id still lean towards Milwaukee becaude they've had a track record of success in the NCAA tourney. They have more of a presence in their city than Northern KY has in Cincy also. 3) St. Thomas- i know they would need to upgrade their facilities. But they have the resources, donors to do it. I get the allure of adding TX but the Twin Cities still is a good addition. Certainly N. Iowa would be in favor as they seem to always have at least 1 player from the state on their roster. Other random thoughts: We have to take into account if Illinois St will move up to say the MAC. So 2 spots could open up. The Valley could expand to 14 by adding 4 schools out of the south i.e. UTA, Oral, Little Rock, etc I think Omaha, Denver wont get in due to them being hockey schools. If Denver wasnt a hockey school first theyd already be in the WCC since back in 2013 if not when BYU left. Arlington i think only gets chosen of they can somehow add another TX school. Make the travel worth it for non-revenue sports, i.e. Abilene Christian, Tarleton, Oral Roberts. Kansas City is very tempting but they too need to upgrade their facilities. But unlike St Thomas wont or dont have the resources, donors to get it done. If they did they would be the co-favorite. South Dakota St is probably better off staying where they're at.
The Biggest issue I see with UW-Milqalkee is the land their basketball arena is on is right next door to Marquette and the Fiserv forum. YOu run into the situation where a Marquette game and a UW-Milwaukee game is scheduled at the same time and "Who wants to go to a Panther Game"
There were previous mumors that W&M would look to the SoCon if Delaware (now gone) and Villanova left. And if that happens would Campbell and Elon soon follow? At that point Albany, UNH, URI, Stony Brook, Bryant, Monmouth, and Maine could add Sacred Heart and Robert Morris or Merrimack to form their own football conference since the southern schools of interest were gone. That would leave Towson, NC A&T, and Hampton to look back to the Big South.
I think it will revert back to 1-A and 1-AA and more since it’s all division 1 but they are clearly defining some as lesser than others. With the G5 all but cutoff in writing, I would expect something like this to make a comeback soon
The Pac12 AQ will be open for the next two years! Then depending on what happens with the Pac12 and MWC, there will be one AQ that goes away! Unless the bottom feeders of the MWC are left behind and they start rebuilding their conference
All this moving around with talks of a G5 national champion makes me think we are going back to 1-A, 1-AA, and a third 1-AAA since all of it will be division one but it’s clearly not all the same.
MVC will always be one of my favorite basketball and football conference behind the Big East
Wow! Very thorough. I honestly wouldn't have picked Northern Kentucky as the favorite, but we'll see. The Cincy airport is actually in KY and is closer to NKU than some Cincinnati schools.
Very detailed. Thank you. I'd love to see you tackle possible WAC expansion candidates. I know that a lot of people think the WAC is dead, but that's been declared before and it's (currently) still here.
Much praise for the amazing amount of detail you put into this!! It is very impressive to look into all the little details on what factors into adding and not adding a school to a conference!
I'll add my two cents to the expansion question: I fully agree as the best option is Northern Kentucky. Opens the Valley to the Cincy market, they have a strong basketball brand, and a financial profile that would fit in with other Valley schools, plus travel isn't as bad as I previously thought. Wright State and UW Milwaukee are decent choices too, but I understand and see how their barriers of entry would hinder them.
One thing that should be taken into account is the MVFC question. With MO State leaving both the Valley proper and the football conference, that would leave both at 11 programs. Not to mention the ever-present chance of North Dakota State and South Dakota State going FBS. That is where I think St. Thomas will come into play. All their Olympic sports are in the Summit, just like the Dakota schools, and I don't see the Tommies leaving that league at the moment. However, football does compete in non-scholarship football in the Pioneer League, which shares offices with the MVC and MVFC and is led by the same commissioner as the MVFC. And given their commitment to football, its' financial backing and football's competitiveness, a jump to scholarship football will definitely be a much easier proposition for them than most other programs.
So TL;DR: Northern Kentucky to the MVC, St. Thomas to the MVFC
Only 30 seconds in and I know this will be your best video so far. I’ll update with my thoughts… thanks for the effort!
Thoughts: As far as I’m aware, the MVC tv deal actually expired after last season and I have not seen any online mention of an extension/new deal. The MVFC signed a new deal with ESPN which includes some linear TV broadcasts. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a new deal for the MVC that is similar to today’s but without the RSN component due to the shaky financial ground those are on right now.
NKU is my pick as well. I understand the demographic arguments for UTA but to me, the odds of them being an out-of-the-way bottom-feeder are too high to be a good candidate.
NKU, EKU, and Denver are my top picks.
I feel like the only way they add UT Arlington is if they add another TX school to make travel worth it. 2 for 1. So adding someone like Abilene Christian or Tarleton. Oral Roberts could also work.
Great work, as always. Big thanks!! Personally, I would like to see the MVC add 3 schools....UTA, ORU and Little Rock. That's my two cents.
As a UTA alum, I would love to see the Mavericks in the MVC. UTA is a sleeping giant in basketball and this might be the move that wakes us up
Thank you for the upload. At least you have another potential video to do. If Stephen F Austin goes back to the Southland Wednesday
*F Austin
Stone Cold Stephen F Austin.
Dude, they should just change their mascot to the rattlesnake.
This is by far your best analysis video. five stars.
I think however it's UTA's to lose. The need for out of state students is critical for MVC schools to survive and DFW is as good as it gets (plus wealthy alumni living there). It comes down to whether the school is willing to invest in and truly promote MBB on a sustained basis. That failure knocked them out last time around.
St. Thomas is intriguing. They also need to invest in MBB, and like UTA they have the resources, so again a matter of will. Minnesota HS students are probably more open to MVC schools than those from Texas.
UNK has everything now, but they are the weakest of the three in terms of helping the looming enrollment cliff that has to be top priority. This is the only reason I doubt them as the choice. They may take UTA despite weak commitment.
One area that kept showing up besides Dallas, St, Louis and Denver in terms of alumni was Atlanta. The one school near there is West Georgia who just moved up to the ASUN. Not sure they are worth considering (FB first), and probably nobody gave them a thought. But for alumni engagement and student recruiting perhaps you should give them a look.
Sadly many amazing universities will be lucky to be open in 10 years. They are just getting CRUSHED financially.
Certainly not an overstatement considering this has been an inevitable bubble about to burst for atleast 2 decades now.
Absolutely awesome! Did the Valley send you a check? You’ve essentially done their work for them?! Very detailed. If it’s 12, it’s NKU. If the Valley goes to 14, then NKU, UTA and St. Thomas. Again, great job! Thanks!
Been waiting for this one!
This is very well thought out. Great job and great video!
I'm curious if St. Louis University would leave the Atlantic 10, now that U. Mass has left, to return to the Missouri Valley. Also if St. Thomas can go D3 to D1, can Wash U. (Washington University in St. Louis) be invited to D1. The Bears were in the Missouri Valley decades ago, and recently purchased the campus of Fontbonne University next door. The HQ of the MVC is in St. Louis, the MVFC & Pioneer league share the location and staff.
Wash U and alot of the UAA privates schools could move to literally any D1 conference they want outside of the power 4 and Ivt league. They just won't move seperatly as they want to be in a conference with like minded schools
Saint Louis is 100% focused on a Big East invite. They're a jesuit school that is a cultural fit/travel partner with Marquette, DePaul, and Creighton, in addition to being longtime rivals with the first two during their C-USA days. They would never "step down" to the MVC while they're trying to get promoted up
The tourney expanding makes sense to me but also you'll gef more at larges if/when the PAC and WAC dissolve. Besides, it's only really gonna help the power leagues in my opinion. The one bid leagues will stay one bid leagues. The MVC and MWC will probably also get multiple bids but that's about it.
I get basketball is the main motivation but baseball plays a huge role too. the MVC is a very proud baseball conference. ORU I think would be great they’re a constant baseball and basketball program and their school is invested in those sports
Can you make a video of your predictions on the future of the CAA
The weird thing is all these Wisconsin schools have high enrollments compared to their athletic peers. Whitewater, LaCrosse, and Oshkosh have over 10k in enrollment and play D3. They will seriously argue that they can't play at a higher level due to enrollment. They have more students then UNI in some cases.
With that being said, they definitely would be schools to look at.
They are all in the UW system. UW-M will never allow any school with football to be D1. Same thing happened in Nebraska with UN-0 when they moved D1. UN-L made sure they killed football and wrestling as part of the move.
My top two candidates remain the same as last time expansion occurred in the MVC:
Bellarmine
Northern Kentucky
Alot to unpack here. But i love it. So here are just some thought beginning with my top 3 picks:
1) Milwaukee- I know they run into attendance issues but the program has been down. Bart Lundy has been a very good hire whose helped turn the program around.
2) Northern KY- This will probably be their choice. They fit all the criteria the league is looking for. Open up a brand new market. Id still lean towards Milwaukee becaude they've had a track record of success in the NCAA tourney. They have more of a presence in their city than Northern KY has in Cincy also.
3) St. Thomas- i know they would need to upgrade their facilities. But they have the resources, donors to do it. I get the allure of adding TX but the Twin Cities still is a good addition. Certainly N. Iowa would be in favor as they seem to always have at least 1 player from the state on their roster.
Other random thoughts:
We have to take into account if Illinois St will move up to say the MAC. So 2 spots could open up. The Valley could expand to 14 by adding 4 schools out of the south i.e. UTA, Oral, Little Rock, etc
I think Omaha, Denver wont get in due to them being hockey schools. If Denver wasnt a hockey school first theyd already be in the WCC since back in 2013 if not when BYU left.
Arlington i think only gets chosen of they can somehow add another TX school. Make the travel worth it for non-revenue sports, i.e. Abilene Christian, Tarleton, Oral Roberts.
Kansas City is very tempting but they too need to upgrade their facilities. But unlike St Thomas wont or dont have the resources, donors to get it done. If they did they would be the co-favorite.
South Dakota St is probably better off staying where they're at.
The Biggest issue I see with UW-Milqalkee is the land their basketball arena is on is right next door to Marquette and the Fiserv forum. YOu run into the situation where a Marquette game and a UW-Milwaukee game is scheduled at the same time and "Who wants to go to a Panther Game"
Do you think the socon my try to expand? And great content as usual good sir
Now the CAA just lost Richmond. I wonder if William & Mary and Villanova football will follow them to the Patriot League.
There were previous mumors that W&M would look to the SoCon if Delaware (now gone) and Villanova left. And if that happens would Campbell and Elon soon follow?
At that point Albany, UNH, URI, Stony Brook, Bryant, Monmouth, and Maine could add Sacred Heart and Robert Morris or Merrimack to form their own football conference since the southern schools of interest were gone.
That would leave Towson, NC A&T, and Hampton to look back to the Big South.
Also have to wonder about the future of the FCS between CAA football losing Richmond and MVFC losing Mo St..so much turmoil
I think it will revert back to 1-A and 1-AA and more since it’s all division 1 but they are clearly defining some as lesser than others.
With the G5 all but cutoff in writing, I would expect something like this to make a comeback soon
@@nashmonti120There's a opportunity for the top revenue schools from FCS would join the G5 as the floor/barrier to entry may be lowered
1 whole hour??? im eating good tonight
Why you no like in depth storytelling..? This is not a tikkytokker app, hahahaha… 😅
Great video! Do you work with a D1 athletic department?
WAC expansion or dissolution video next!
Wow, this is incredible. Rip to the wac next sadly.
Seems as the WAC-ASUM mismanaged their position and will likely be picked apart by teams going to FBS or to other more competent FCS conferences
The Pac12 AQ will be open for the next two years! Then depending on what happens with the Pac12 and MWC, there will be one AQ that goes away! Unless the bottom feeders of the MWC are left behind and they start rebuilding their conference
Technically yes, but OSU and WSU are competing in the WCC over the next two seasons. The Pac-12 bid will essentially be inactive
Add NDSU. Already MVFC member, upset Oklahoma in NCAA tournament, and CBS is a MUCH better network than what the Summit has with CBSSN.
The valley needs to get off espn and on fox sports. Would be much better for rankings.
Kick out Valpo and go back to 10, problem solved
All this moving around with talks of a G5 national champion makes me think we are going back to 1-A, 1-AA, and a third 1-AAA since all of it will be division one but it’s clearly not all the same.
With possible movements of the remaining large AD schools in the current 1-AA/FCS schools to "move up" to the new G5 division.