The Commercial Real Estate Problem Just Got Worse.
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- čas přidán 14. 06. 2024
- The U.S. commercial real estate crisis isn't over. Regional banks are under stress and investors are running away. Right now, it looks like the situation might be getting worse before it gets better. In this video, we look at the current state of affairs, including thoughts from Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, Steve Eisman, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, and examine the Fed's plan to stop the crisis from worsening in the future.
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 Commercial Real Estate Isn't Looking Good
1:27 The Commercial Real Estate Problem Explained
6:00 U.S. Banking System is Stressed
8:19 Jamie Dimon Explains the Problem
10:40 Jerome Powell Explains the Fed's Approach
My Podcast: / theyounginvestorspodcast
Brandon van der Kolk is authorised to provide general financial product advice in Australia and is an Authorised Representative (Number 1305795) of Guideway Financial Services Pty Ltd, AFSL Number 420367. Any advice is general & does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives so consider whether it's appropriate for you. Read Brandon's Financial Services Guide available from guideway.com.au/NewMoney.pdf. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
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What are you guys thinking about commercial real estate? Do you believe the Fed when they say they've got it under control?
do i believe the Fed.... ROFL
nope, i dont trust FED they filled greedy. just like china property estate is collapse. now US real estate will be suffer.
They have to say that. But they dont truly know
Honestly just convert them to residential building , over inflated prices and price of goods keep shooting up while savings and credit cards being used up. Business are definitely going to feel it and might as well get rents for residential then nothing
The whole talk about "reverse" market crash (real estate and stock market) basically argues that we are nowhere near done with inflation and that we might actually experience "hyperinflation" in the near future combined with accelerating poverty levels across the nation or going thru a historical economic depression...those are the extreme conditions that have produced the reverse market crashes in most examples I've seen. I personally don't see anything that extreme coming, but who knows.
I recommend investing in shares to balance out your real estate assets. Even the toughest recessions can give wonderful purchasing opportunities if you are prudent. Furthermore, volatility can create wonderful short-term buy and sell opportunities. Although this is not financial advise, you should buy right now because money isn't king right now!
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Strategists have been aiding folks in recording gains over 250k just in a matter of months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you have someone who knows where to look like i do.
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With the challenges facing commercial real estate lately. With the shift to remote work and the economic downturn, many businesses are struggling to maintain their office spaces.
It's not just offices either; retail spaces and hospitality properties are also facing difficulties. The pandemic has changed consumer behavior, leading to less foot traffic and lower demand for these types of properties.
I read an article recently that mentioned how landlords are facing increasing vacancies and downward pressure on rental prices. It's definitely a tough situation for those invested in commercial real estate.
With all these challenges, it might be a good idea to seek guidance from a financial advisory firm.
But haven't found a good one now
FOLMAR ADVISORY is a very reputable firm
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The big banks are salivating at the thought of buying these smaller banks after they default. The last few years make it seem like this outcome was by design.
you make it sound like big banks caused covid lol
it was. in march 2020 they eliminated the reserve ratio. virtual reserve banking.
Bingo!
This makes so much sense.
I have $110M of industrial real estate in a fund I'm the chair / largest shareholder of. I'm glad we got an ISDA and bought an interest rate swap when we did to lower our interest rate exposure. Rates going from 2.3% up to 8% really had a big dent in cash flow. Fortunately industrial property, where tenants make real things, is much less exposed to vacancy and everyone needs to be there in person. We have seen some tenancy issues with less solid tenants, but we've been able to navigate that well. There was no financial support offered to commercial real estate investors during the pandemic at all, so when tenants were forced by law out of their premises the owners just had to take the costs while still paying the debt, something industrial real estate was also less exposed to compared to office / retail. There is probably another hard 12 months ahead before we start to see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't an oncoming train. We were still able to pay our investors dividends during the entire time, although at lower levels than before.
They thought they had 2008 under control too
"Just a gully"
“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”
Most major cities are having an affordable housing crisis at the moment. There is at the same time this empty office space crisis where companies as big as Brookfield are handing back the keys to their buildings because they can't afford to keep them. This might be a major ignorance on the nuances behind it all, but the way I see it, I just have to ask myself; How is it that politicians can look at this and not see a simple solution? Give two options to these office space owning companies: 1.) Re-invest to repurpose your property for more housing. OR 2.) We (a combination of city/state/federal government working with the banks) will negotiate pricing to buy these buildings and outfit them for affordable housing. There is enough budget within those three levels of government, city/state/and federal, in order to work together and help alleviate the banking sector by buying these buildings and also help reduce the level of people struggling to find affordable housing.
The Federal government is drowning in debts...
Not enough plumbing ect in office buildings for them to be repurposed in the style people are accustomed.
@@GEB-yy3ud Not true, the plumbing systems can cater for way more shit with a densely populated office building. Rerouting pipes and electrical isn’t difficult either. There are mezzanine ceilings to cater for the extra pipe work. Or you could have a floating floor..
It cost a lot to restructure an office building to residential. For example residential units require a window to the outside and a lot office buildings are cavernous with windows only on the perimeter of the building. To convert to residential you would have to reconstruct the building to have windows in the interior. Which is quite expensive to do.
@@AndrewEG we can agree to disagree.
When talking about CRE, you are talking about so many different aspects: Offices, storage, retail, shopping malls.
If we are taking offices, it’s problematic. The rest is still holding for people who adapt to the market and repurpose their assets.
The bubble didn't pop in 2009, now it's poppin
Thanks
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Good video, good graphics, succinct, I’m stealing it for my Econ class. 😉
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Impressive can you share more info?
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Multifamily is just as much a threat as office. Way too many are only focusing on office. A huge portion of MF loans were 3-5 yr bridge loans originated between 2018 and 2022. These are all coming due and many of them are not worth their debt.
Empty boxes aren't worth anything. Stuff you can rent has value.
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Contemplate shifting your investments from real estate to other dependable options such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or precious metals. Severe recessions present potential buying opportunities in the market, but it's essential to approach them cautiously due to the volatility that can provide short-term trading possibilities. While not offering financial advice, it could be prudent to consider investing, given that holding onto cash may not be ideal during this period.
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Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
Pickle ball courts!
We gotta stop conflating commerical real estate with office space. CRE fundamentals are actually quite strong
Name one strong fundamental
@@dinosoup retail and industrial vacancy levels are at all time lows, industrial product seeing the fastest increase in rental rates ever, manufacturing and logistics supply chain structures moving state side, extreme lack of housing supply (good for multi-family), EXTREME amounts of capital on the sidelines now coming into the market to purchase assets (this wasn’t the case in 08/09), many refinances on products that aren’t office or bridge loan debt are having no issues in executing the refi, I can keep going and going.
@@dinosoup did that address your question?
@@connorduffy8620 And none of that matters if the debt is coming due in the next 6-18 months. Cap rates are higher than when properties were acquired and rising.
@@connorduffy8620it’s only a matter of time. Retail is weakening in a big way.
GOOD... we have had a decade of acquisitions, near monopolies and talent hoarding, and as greed turned products into crap, the cycle is finally turning over... senior talent on the market, opportunity to provide a better service / product than billion dollar companies without overhead, and commercial real estate prices falling. We're probably not at the bottom yet, but we might get there in 2024-2025. As someone trying to pivot a senior level career into a startup, this is all good news medium / long term.
I’m in Austin as a commercial real estate agent and it’s pretty horrendous if you’re in a boutique brokerage trying to make it in the industry. Leasing activity is strong, but sales have been on the decline since 2022. Even our class A office space market is doing poorly. You can see it in our new high rise, 6G on Guadalupe. Facebook has half of this building up for sublease. Hard hats for residents happened, nothing. Residents moved in, still nothing. No concessions for new tenants. I think it’ll get worse
thank you for sharing
But aren't companies making more money as they dont have to deal with all the costs related to people going to an office?
The tears of commercial real estate owners nourish me, them, and their banks.
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I've actually been looking into mentors lately, the news I've been seeing in the market hasn't been so encouraging
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Thanks😊
Interesting to see how the troubles in commercial real estate aren't just a big bank problem; medium and small banks are feeling the pressure too. High-level warnings from big names like Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and Warren Buffett about possible bank failures show this is serious. Regional banks are especially at risk because they've lent a lot to the commercial real estate sector, which is now struggling due to high interest rates. This means property owners are earning less and paying more on loans, a tough spot to be in. With loans worth hundreds of billions due to be paid back by 2026, this could really shake up local banks. great video!
Enlightening. Thanks for sharing.
I can only agree with no cuts. We'll see how strong the economy is really doing with persistent inflation or even a second wave.
Sitting on a pile of cash waiting to scoop some deals! Go Powell go!
Do people think this will bring down stock price of Realty Income?
This is exactly like the Big Short, where interest rates on adjustable mortgages went up...when the loans came up for renewed rate increases, people couldn't make their new higher payments.
Excellent vid, just I take issue with one small point. You say employers saw the savings from reducing office space during COVID, and that they were the driving force. I don't have any sources except numerous anecdotal evidence, but the driver was employees preferred the WFH/hybrid model. They chose it and when corporations started mandating return to office, employees voted with their feet and changed company. It was this inability to retain and recruit staff that caused Big Tech etc to change their WFH policies.
One day this will be taught in textbooks as one of the most significant changes after COVID.
So you have an undersupply of housing and an oversupply of offices ..any ideas?
Live at work, marry at work etc etc.
By Powell saying commercial real estate debt maturity will be a problem for “several years” he is telling us that interest rates are not coming down. Oops.
Not really. Almost the contrary, I believe.
Great essay, very informative. I got a feeling we have a lot more to get through before its "over"
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This is odd... this sounds like a good thing. Banks are giving out stupid loan agreements (no requirement to pay principle??), and companies were greedy enough to take these agreements while not budgeting to paying off the property THAT THEY BOUGHT. This sounds like a win-win. PLEASE don't bail these idiots out. Let any banks who gave out these idiotic loans go under, and let any company that was greedy enough to not account for actually paying for the building that they bought suffer the concequences. Until it hurts their wallets, they'll never learn.
And sure, I don't want to see big banks buy out defaulting small banks either.. but a lesson has to be learned at some point in all this...
Jamie Diamond will never say commercial RE is a systemic risk. In reality it could certainly be a black swan with a domino effect in the economy if banks close the credit line.
Are we experiencing this here in Australia as well?
Yes with 15-30% write downs on office building valued in Sydney but banks here are diversified
*How will the big 5 Canadian Bank perform in this scenario*
There's trouble brewing in real estate around the world. each country and city is a little different, but it is in fact contagion. I think some people are thinking that this will cause lower housing costs because some large multifamily apartment buildings are also under stress, but when I look at it, I think it's the opposite. The cost of living will increase, simply because there is no free lunch. Right now too many cities are thinking they can manage this crisis, even while they are passing policies that are making their cities un-investible from a real estate perspective. There's not enough people looking under the hood and looking at the machine. Everyone is believing their preconceived notions.
What’s the edge here? Looking for the teleological perspective. Thanks!
Who would have thought that free currency would pump up some bubbles?
I think you should really say office space within commercial real estate. Industrial and multi family are generally doing very well!
Multi-family is getting obliterated! People who bought at the height of the pandemic boom and their loans are rolling over as rents are plummetting.
@@datruth4766- Not in all markets.
Yup. And the stock market just keeps going up. Any bad news seems to be great news for stocks.
That's kinda just how stocks work, with high risk, comes great rewards, until it doesnt.
The longer we go without a significant crash, the faster the stocks will rise.
All this was a huge asset bubble. Prices have to stop going up or we won’t have money
Hi Brandon, so cool to see the last bit with the tequila present and well deserved. You make great content and keep it up. Ps your last name 'van der kolk' is probably Dutch ey?
Cheers from Holland 🇵🇾
Great vid. Thank you. In my pov this is the only way rates will fall.
FT had an article the other day saying the largest bank in the US has more commercial debt at risk of default then assets. So regional is not the only issue - the largest US bank is JP Morgan...is this why Jamie DImon sold out last month...
Very good summary as always . Makes sense .
Just seems that soon there will only be a few banks left in the us. Only the big banks can survive and buy out these worse performing smaller bank.
funny how J. Powell always uses the word tools which just means Deception!!
Would Jerome say that "this will tear down the whole financial system", if it would?
It's also worth going a few steps deeper - once banks possess this real estate, they put it up for auction. In the current market, banks are more than likely to recover any losses as there is still a significant appetite for commercial RE, especially at a discount.
Last year i was doing stock analysis on banks and found a Canadian bank with a p/e ratio of 1300. These guys are levered to the tits.
Love your show!
No worries. Smaller banks will go under, big banks will get bigger and average person will eat loses through inflation.
Don't worry, we definetly aren't in a recession right now.
You're wrong about that.
When a crash happens, inflation flips on its head and the value of cash skyrockets.
Inflation will reverse once the banks go under.
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Thank you for breaking this down. 😮
Jamie Dimon says that everything will be fine if there's not a recession. News flash, we're in a recession, wall street just hasn't realized it yet
The only reason we've had job growth in the past year or so is due to part time job growth. The U.S. has lost full time jobs but part time job growth is so large that it's covering it up.
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My whole networth on the line betting against Real Estate this year
That’s a bad bet brother…commerical real estate is good shape besides office and maybe some bad multi-family bridge debt deals
Wow, that's a ballsy bet!
I'm heavy into vici, but vici has some inflation proof contracts. And price control.
interesting play with inflation where it is.
I've been buying Brookfield and other REIT's. I see this as a decade opportunity.
Not a big issue
personally,I think people should venture Into trading since the economic meltdown, having one stream of income is not really a good idea.
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Most time having knowledge or insight about a particular activity can as well be a pleasing exercise.
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A lot of people don't understand that all these people defaulting and going bust that's just how the system works - an error of both the lender and the borrower
Nice video
I dont see a systemic problem, but I wish this analysis had connected with Michael Bury's bet on regional banks
I have no idea how this stuff works, bur it seems to me like a a great opportunity to sell their commercial office property off to the government at a discounted rate and to convert these spaces into retail property, housing or community space, artist studios etc. Minimise loss for the banks
There’s nothing slow moving when this real estate crisis hits. It will hit fast and furious.
If the 10 year can claw its way to 5.5%- 6% then watch out.. that will put mortgage rates in the 8+% range.. those high rates could and should push prices down. You will now have two powerful forces both encouraging investor selling.. their equity is declining as real estate prices go down and they have a great alternative investment paying 6%. You could see a tidal wave of new listings from investors which will only push housing prices down more, encouraging even more investor selling. RE can finally get out of this positive feedback look and into a negative feedback loop.
I certainly hope so. We're looking to expand our portfolio but good investment properties are still selling over list price in our area.
@@jonathantaylor6926 The issue is that there's currently $6T in cash sitting on the sidelines earning a safe 5%. If property values start dropping, the Fed will lower interest rates and that cash will start flowing back into real estate.
That will probably short circuit the negative feedback loop and reverse the decline well before reaching affordability for the average buyer.
the fact that hospitals are included in this CRE catagory of investments is just sooo american
Hopefully this is BAD but not that bad (which it sounds like it is). As long as it doesn't damage a large bank that has some crazy exposure to office space real estate that isnt being mentioned I think we are good. We don't want a complete market meltdown but we do want a little bit of a market DIP from this minature crisis so it creates some buying opportunities before the next market bull run. Lets go !
Its not all.CRE...just mostly office space vacancies
I’d say it’s more than likely buyers of this distressed commercial real estate will come out on top in the long run. Buy low sell high. Just gotta ignore the doom and gloom of the short term media
No one wants to go to your office buildings and do work. Not even the owners of the buildings.
Their confidence is eerie
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Of course there is a big risk, CBD's and the business that use to support the office workers are going out of business. The offices spaces will continue to decline in value unless repurposed. The scary thing here as that JP said it'll be a slow burn lasting 7years so I'd assume interest rate will remain elevated for some time. We are in the midst of the bang, there will soon be the bust!
This business model seems wildly broken. Residential mortgages have to pay principal and interest but commercial can just pay interest and kick the can down the road. Seems like this can lead to bad behavioral and being over leveraged. Why isn’t this allowed for residential owners? Why is it allowed for commercial properties? This feels very off to em.
The stock market is doing great😂
Trust jannet yellen 🤣🤣
You can see the honesty in Powells face when he speaks.
Wouldn’t it make more sense for a small regional bank let a CRE loan roll over at a lower interest rate (even at the cost of losing some money) for a few years even at the cost of lower or no profitability rather than take the losses at once and go under?
Of course there's no crisis 😂😂😂
There is over a trillion in commercial real-estate that is going to default in the next year or so.
Over a hundred smaller regional banks are at risk
“wearhouse”? Really?
Fire your video editor and graphics person.
Will the banks get handed the real estate properties…
Transform offices real estate into residential
You watch the media and governments try to force people back into the office.
At the end of this video, you said things seem the same as six months ago. You also explained throughout this video why the problem is not as big as people think.
Isn't that contradicting the title of this video? Did you become one of those CZcamsrs who put stupid titles to get more views?
wait for biden to say, "we should not let a good disaster go to waste" and watch to see who makes money off of this...
time to pull out my money
This warning is so vague that it didn’t need to become a video.
Housing realty is strong but the commercial are the one going in the drain. We have seen it during and after covid.
*****🔥******* well hello ! "Medium and small Banks" are also important and when they start going under that's going to affect the psyche of people and then that could even make the recession worse but of course they won't say that
First!
Nailed it David!
Sure it could be possible crisis if they put up alot of real estate for sale at the same time. So the real estate value goes down and the banks wont get all their money back
He says if we aren’t in a recession like we aren’t already in one
they Will All ways say ,they will Handle it !
Dont these blackstones and blackrocks invest im the same banks theyre not paying back?
It doesnt make sense why tegional banks are in trouble. Is this to say Blackrocks and Blackstones are borrowing from regional banks?
Kick the can down the road then file bankruptcy no problem 😢
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