I have been reading and listening to Peter Zeihan for a long time, and he never ceases to encourage my optomism. I'm especially glad to hear him say that because of the success of fracking, we no longer have reason to involve our country with Israel, Iran, and the Middle East, and that we can turn our attention to our relationship with Turkey. The mention of a treaty between Arabia and Israel was also encouraging. These two shifts in the political tectonic plates finally open up a new future for us at last.
You’ll be getting a shift in the tectonic plates alright! It might also get a little hotter as the water runs out. No need to worry though. Peter knows all!
You realize, of course, that this is not Peter's CZcams channel. It's just from some guy who recorded Peter at some random event this guy went to. Peter had nothing to do with how shitty the recording turned out. It's a bootleg.
@@gregkendall3559 you realize of course that why would i direct my criticism at peter if this isnt his channel? how would he even hear it? you assume too much also this isnt a bootleg; its the camerman for the event.
This guy is good. Please have a conversation between Peter Z and Nails Fergusan. The dynamic between History having a face off with Geography is compelling. Thank you
"The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning" on audio pretty damn good. It's on my phone permanently. Zeihan does all the audio himself. So good! There's easter eggs in there too. So pay close attention.
@@gmw3083 Nope. Zeihan is attempting to describe the physical realities of the technologies and logistical relationships that exist today. He's basically talking engineering. He's not focused on speculating about the internal workings of "group minds." A prognosticator who lectures about what someone else actually thinks is lying to you. The human mind's like a twitching nerve in a vat. None of us know what TF they're going to do.
Yeah, carriers can't go 80mph. Unless they have planing hull then over "hull speed" the faster the more the ship is sucked down. So maybe 40. Plus fast props make air bubbles so after 40 the props can't push harder. If carriers ever went fast some seaman would tweet about it ... Some Russian torpedos go 70mph use air bubbles up front and rocket behind. The japs had a fast torpedo in 1940 I forget how..
I think he made a mistake which is normal! It is really easy to find the mistakes, because he provides the logic and the data unlike so many others. The nimitz super carrier travels at 30 knots. The Gerald Ford super carrier travels at 30+ knots. It has 250% more electrical capacity. So Peter Zeihan took the 30 knots and multiplied it with 2.5 resulting in 75 knots. And that's what he said, right? The drone travels with 90 knots. It is a common mistake. He assumed the relationship between velocity and power is proportional. But the drag increases quadratically, not linearly! So there is no way, it will be able to travel with 75 knots. It is more like 45 knots on maximum power. This is just a rough estimate. I didn't calculate it. So don't quote me!
Even if that's the case, he claimed a supercarrier can do 90 knots, not 75. And it's not the case, because they are using the same two A1B reactors. What is changing is that 100% of the power is going to generate electrical power rather than shaft mechanical power. Only an idiot would think they are using this extra power to swim away from drones when they can just shoot them down with lasers _if you got around 30kw per laser_ (and a few Phalanx CIWS just to be safe).
Overlooking the Ohio River and the opportunity to discuss the Jones Act was missed. I grew up a couple hours North of Marietta, and from what I hear from back home, they could use the economic stimulus that cheaper logistics would bring.
Policy that changes with the times is good. As a critical thinker, I would question outright repeal on the basis of national security and environmental grounds. 2 cents...
Zeihan talks about the jones act frequently enough if you follow his speeches. It is typically a big discussion point for him when discussing the domestic economic picture.
I dont want to trust foreign ships with 100s of foreignors in inland areas for months. In Baltimore 1 ship crashed and closed a harbor for year. Zeihan is sometimes wrong (he predicted Russian oil catastrophe and world famine in year 1). If ships are soooo wonderfully better than rail and truck then having to use Americans shouldn't be such a negative. Transport is under 20% of cost of all goods so not a big factor. Having crews from Greece or Tunisia or Thailand working inside US is sorta weird, noncitizens shouldn't work here, and no offense but I dont trust them. US has cheapest rail in world and cheapest trucking, no need for allowing huge ships to be crewed by foreignors. .. . . . US has learned that shipping predictions are usually sky high, we built Tenn Tomm canal from Paducah to Mobile thru Alabama and none used it except few coal barges. Minnesota is closing locks since few use Mississippi river. Inland waterways always are dream of those who hate rail but never materializes, even Twain admitted rivers have droughts so trains are better to rely on. Hmmmm. It only takes 1 bomb to break a lock or dam for year taking out Illinois waterway, upper Mississippi, Columbia, Great Lakes to Atlantic, so relying on shipping more seems dumb. But just interlinking coast is ok idea, till ships start hitting bridges......
A fun visualisation, with a carrier being pursued by a swarm of drones with it going flat out ! I am sure that the Navy has a modern version of the old German 88mm Flak gun that could deal with them as a group and with no risk to the carrier !
Thoughtful and provocative, as usual. One issue though: The audio is terrible (both from Zeihan and the audience). It would be great if this could be fixed in the future. Thanks.
Really nice talk, very interesting. Love hearing something more than a retread of his books which most of the content on YT is about. Though, one point I really need to correct him on as it almost made me fall of my chair when he said it. No Carrier currently deployed or dare I say even sitting on the most top secret drawing board can reach anywhere near 90 knots. The USS Gerald R Ford has official numbers of 30+ knots which would be amazing if it actually did 40. 90 is bonkers and I'm very much sure Peter just misspoke. I mean, it would be amazingly cool but being absolutely no expert on the subject I still doubt propellers designed for cruising effieciently at around 22 knots fitted to a gigantic machine thats supposed to serve for around 50 years can also somehow manage anywhere even near 50 knots without destroying themselves and the whole driveshaft.
Peter is almost always dead on but he has a way of triggering people who have strong feelings about an issue but cannot argue with Peter's long list of facts and research. I have seen this so many times that these people always resort to name calling and coming up with conspiracy theories about Peter. What they don't see is the incredible sources of info Peter has and his tendency to allow the information to shape his conclusions. He is not a political hack but a man who wants to bore down on facts versus opinions.
13:15 so say the lines do need to be drilled again, is the equipment to do so ready to go. I’m just assuming the length of time was in the need for specialty equipment?
That specialty equipment, and specialty trained personnel, came from top-tier Western sources. BP, Suncor, Haliburton, and others. They've pulled out, and are never coming back - even if the war ended tomorrow.
@@stevehatcher7700 I’m still skeptical if we can sustain ourselves with fracking then they can probably preform some sort of the same there? And the manufacturing of steel pipeline would probably have been done in house, now boring the well, I’m sensing that they have a huge amount of Chinese money to spend and the dependency of china of Russian oil would probably bring about cooperation wow I just said that In my head with extra w’s, but yeah there’s a will and a way along with a billon person incentive, then there is the Frenchman angle Russia seems to be bedfellows with the liquid natural gas so crude oil might just be the next natural step. Geopolitics is more complex if you really think of all of the potential players
@user-zu9ug8hp3d fracking is highly technical. Russia does not have the people with those skills, or the ability to develop the people with those skills, considering their demographic problems. Without serious outside help, they're dead in the water. China might be a wildcard here. But with their own demographic and economic problems coming down the pipe over the next decade, may not be the ones to get Russian oil back up and running.
@@stevehatcher7700 what about France they already are highly invested in Russian LNG, after this war ends I’m betting both countries are up to bat, and yes technically advanced,but with the five claw spy initiative I’m betting china already has the capability. Basically if a first world country needs a resource they will find a way.
Hamas made the attack they did to force an over-reaction by Israel, which under Netanyahu was a sure thing, to make the world rethink their alliances with Israel. Well, the unintended consequences are that the world does indeed pull back it's support of Israel, but that lets Israel do as it pleases to resolve the two state solution... for good.
90 knots??! A Nimitz or Ford aircraft carrier can potentially go 90 knots? I have never hear anything over 40 knots. Does anyone have any info to back that up?
Very good talk. Interesting for sure. However. Any one saying that every thing someone say is wrong and u should not listen to them means that at least u should hear their side. Otherwise they would be ok with hearing them out. Not open minded at all there
Cool talk but audio quality has more left to be desired. I suggest consulting with audio tech specialist to get a better functional sound recording setup there. Difficult at times to make out the audience questions.
I don't know what current carriers do, but my grandfather was on the sea trials of the Enterprise. They did a speed run and it took almost twice as long as the speed run took for the escorts to catch up. Now the Enterprise was something special. They didn't know how many reactors to put in because they'd never done it before. So they decided eight was a good number. Modern carrier use two plus they can sprint with oil. I do not know what the new super Carriers use. Four generations of my family have worked at Newport News ship. I am the only one that did not make it a career. I do know the new electronic launch systems need a lot more electricity. So I would not be surprised that they snuck it back up to four reactors.
His number is probably based on possible reactor steam generation capability, but that isn't the right information. The steam turbines and cavitation of the propellers are likely the limiting factors. CVN78 has four props that look like fairly normal containership propellers. If each prop could get a vessel the size of an aircraft carrier up to 20 knots, the likely top speed that four propellers support is likely around double that.
@@ianmcmahon8589 I heard an Admiral say something vague and interesting recently when talking about the Littoral combat ships, they were the second fastest surface ships in the Navy.... Given he excluded subs in that statement then... connect the dots.
Yeah, I'm not buying that. Maybe 60 knots on a newer one. Even if the reactor can, there's a whole lot of the rest of the ship that would have a problem with that. And if it can, this info is highly classified.
Gaza death toll at 2% is "mind bogglig"? Compared to what? WWII at 600 million? I don't know what percentage of the belligerents' populations that makes, but I would call that "mind boggling" at least in sheer numbers if not percentages.
The source from those figures are the Palestinian Health Authority and its been proven that their figures are statistically impossible, in any set of combat statistics you see peaks and deep valleys in casualties, but in Gaza you see figures continually rising by 15% steadily, every day, the numbers are a statistical impossibility and completely fabricated
Yeah, 90kts is ridiculous.. That kind of speed is hydroplane territory. Speed has mostly to do with the shape of the vessel, and how it flows through water. A ship capable of that Speed wouldn't carry much.
The claim that a super carrier could steam at 90 knots by "opening up" its nuclear power plant to full capacity is ridiculous for a whole host of reasons. It makes me skeptical of many other spectacular assertions that Peter makes in areas where I have less expertise.
Those 100kt drones are in the wind - if the carrier flees into the wind and it's blowing at least 10 knots, the drones are going to never catch up, and will run out of fuel. Even in 0 wind, with a 10kt advantage, how many hours of fuel do they have? The carrier has years of fuel for propulsion of the vessel. If they are detected and the ship starts fleeing when they are 40kts away, do they have 4 hours of fuel remaining? I doubt it. They would also need 400nmi of open seas into which to flee. However, I also doubt the claimed top speed of 90kts. These are large displacement hulls - I'd have to do some math, but I doubt that the total output of the two reactors with say 80% efficiency applied to thrust, would be enough to get them to that speed. I suppose they could have some bubble injection system to create something like super cavitation to reduce water friction -- or some other exotic tech to achieve the same - that would change the math completely, but in the absence of such a system, I doubt much past 50kts is realistic.
None of the articles I could find about replicator talked about manufacturing drones on the ship, it's just a ship carrying a lot of cheap ("attritable") reusable combat drones. Making them on board sounds like an early idea that'll never happen, or a PZ bit error. Also a 90kt aircraft carrier, do you remember Macross? I doubt USN carriers are designed to go that fast even if the reactors can output the raw power. It would be cool, maybe outfit it with drop down hydrofoil water wings, so it can get to Taiwan or the ME in a day or two... Preferably with its carrier group so it's not naked in the theater. Carriers don't like to get naked in public.
Birth rate has been well below replacement rate in much of the world for decades. That’s been known. What Peter brings to this issue is a perspective on consequences. At some point, those consequences become non-linear. China will probably be next, but Russia, South Korea, and Germany are also approaching that cliff. Japan has already passed that. Each country will be a different story; some will end worse than others. It’s not always doom and gloom. Japan had three lost decades, but is beginning some level of recovery. They have trade agreements with the USA and others. They have the second largest blue-water navy in the world. Japan (and now Germany) have outsourced production to the countries where they sell, which gets around lack of skilled labor (demographics) and other resources. I see this in action: I live in the USA, and drive a Japanese car (built in America). I work for a Japanese multinational, building software for the American market. I play a Japanese piano, but it was built in Maylasia. China cannot take that path. They’ve burned their bridges, diplomatically, economically, and commercially. It’s going to go very badly for them, and for many other countries.
@@Stoddardian I didn't mention Africa, or South America. The discussion was about highly industrialized countries facing demographic collapse. Many countries are likely to face famine because food shipments will drop, and agricultural supplies such as fertilizer and equipment will be hard to come by (and very expensive). It has the possibility to be a catastrophe for many parts of the world.
@@Stoddardian It will surely be big a big human catastrophe, but not the greatest. In the Book of Revelation, some passages goes over the four horsemen of the apocalypse and some special plagues sent by Yah. Overall, 1/3 of mankind gets wrecked by the sword. Another 1/3 by famine. And yet another by 1/3 by pestilence. When I say wrecked, I mean 'death.' Nooqs are the new sword. And we got thousands of nooqs. Deglobalization could accelerate the famine process. But pestilence? Not sure how that's gonna happen. We had Sars in 2020. But that wasn't lethal. I'm talking something demonic. Like the Black Plagu--
15:33 he's talking about privacy laws. It's been the solution for a while now when it comes to preventing mass "crime." Adjust some of the laws to allow federal agencies enforcement of intercepted communications. If you want to know why Nicholas Cruz didn't get caught ahead of time, that's why. Let them challenge citizens who make public threats and also private ones. We are already working on anti drone systems. Will get better over time.
Peter's military analyses have never been that good on details- he gets the broad strokes strategy and logistics side of things; but his knowledge of platforms, weapons systems etc. is pretty short. Though having said that; there have been persistent "rumors" since the 80's that the nuclear powered Carriers can go much faster than anybody thinks... All the Navy will admit to is 30+ knots, but I've seen estimates based their reactor power as high as 50 knots. Maybe Peter knows something I/we don't- maybe he just made a mistake citing a figure off the top of his head.
Thanks Peter! As an Armenian American I would like to know what is Turkey/Russia/Azerbaijan alliance and why you never mentioned about this dangerous situation!? This might be a bigger danger down the road for America and Europe!
In 2015 I crowdfunded a documentary to be made about a family of four that was going to live for a year without using anything made in China. Seven months later. My money was sent back with the message that they discovered that it simply was not possible to do so. Let that sink in 😮
I think one thing Peter overlooks is chaos dynamics. China •Might• alter as we currently know it, but we don't know what might rise from it. We don't know, no one knows, what a Post Xi China may look like. We don't know what will happen to all of its military assests. We don't know how AI systems controls will play out in making up for demographic declines in warfare. China is something we should be absolutely concerned with 10 years from now, even if they have a mass economic collapse- there is always the potential for something new to rise. Even as a model- when the Soviet Union collapsed, The Russian Federation eventually replaced it. And we are now left with many of the same prior issues, including geographical security. It is unwise to simply shove the problem under the rug, because they have not collapsed Yet and they get a say in what happens.
Or, in the event of chaos dynamics, China could just start launching the nooqs tomorrow. They are already going to go down. So, we don't really know what can happen. Don't forget 2020. The whole entire world flipped upside down in the span of a second. Good grief that was insane.
Great video but I have one bone to pick. America supporting Israel has the major effect of preventing any one of the Arabs from reforming something similar to the Ottoman empire. That would either force Europe to become nationalists again or they will conquer the middle east and become energy Independent imperialists. They need that energy and won't let two empires bully them for long over oil. The fact that America supports but doesn't occupy is why things are stable and not much worse. We can't choke anyone without consequences. I can't believe Peter's amazing foresight missed that!
Europe r wimps, will not invade anyone for oil. Mideast with oil in 1930 made world better off even if have to pay jerk sheiks. Only goal since then is keep sheik distrusting sheik to avoid OPEC price rise like 1967 and 1977, and we ve mostly suceeded. Iran/Iraq/Syria are nice balance to Gulf, perfect lack of trust Sunni vs Shia, little chance of OPEC embargo. Oil runs out in 2130 and nuclear should be common by then. Arabs speak 20 dialects, and now middle class 10% are skipping Arabic and going with English, so this is NOT a block that can easily unify. Can Thai, Cambodia, Burma unify into a Buddhist major power? Luckily the top sheik the descendant of Muhammed and king of Morocco speaks a truly silly dialect and wears silly Moroccoan clothes so truly no 1 ruler is able to lead.
I have been reading and listening to Peter Zeihan for a long time, and he never ceases to encourage my optomism. I'm especially glad to hear him say that because of the success of fracking, we no longer have reason to involve our country with Israel, Iran, and the Middle East, and that we can turn our attention to our relationship with Turkey. The mention of a treaty between Arabia and Israel was also encouraging. These two shifts in the political tectonic plates finally open up a new future for us at last.
You’ll be getting a shift in the tectonic plates alright!
It might also get a little hotter as the water runs out.
No need to worry though. Peter knows all!
Listen at 1.25 speed
If you wanted "no holds barred" Zeihan, here you go.
good to hear peter add some updates to the topics covered, but one thing: you need to fire your audio technician, the audio is atrocious.
You realize, of course, that this is not Peter's CZcams channel. It's just from some guy who recorded Peter at some random event this guy went to. Peter had nothing to do with how shitty the recording turned out. It's a bootleg.
Nearly 20 years on the web and you still haven’t mastered CZcams?
The audio is fine with my audio ear buds.
@@gregkendall3559 you realize of course that why would i direct my criticism at peter if this isnt his channel? how would he even hear it? you assume too much
also this isnt a bootleg; its the camerman for the event.
@@texasoilfieldse
This guy is good. Please have a conversation between Peter Z and Nails Fergusan. The dynamic between History having a face off with Geography is compelling. Thank you
Niels Ferguson is a self important buffoon
What? Geography is intrinsically history. What the heck kind of comment is that?
@@juliandunn8412I think you’ll find it’s the reverse.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@davidmacdonald1695 Oh, you'd
disagree?
The audiobooks where Peter narrates are *chef's kiss
Thank you for posting
Thanks for the upload bro!
Thanks for the new footage. Always a learning experience
Incredible insight. Thank you
Thanks
Thank you for sharing. I found the discussion thought provoking and informative
"The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning" on audio pretty damn good. It's on my phone permanently.
Zeihan does all the audio himself. So good! There's easter eggs in there too. So pay close attention.
Might pick that up today thanks legend
If you only want the western narrative PZ is your man
It's too bad the sound-quality on this video is so poor, b/c a lot of interesting topics.
insane that in this day and age this could happen....maybe they should have had a 13 yo Tic-Tocker to do the sound..lol
@@thepogue hes sitting in front of a chaulkboard what did you expect?
Shameful
yeah what even was that first guy's question about russia? i could even hear
And yet you watched the video and commented. Soft soft bois
I really enjoyed the Q&A from the students.
Amazing insights
Good thing we can hear the questions being asked
It's good enough that we can hear Peter's answers.
Thanks for your information!
STRATFOR was my source and you compliment my knowledge!
Zeihan used to work for STRATFOR.
@@jerryrichardson2799 I said the same thing! 😂
His information is according to the the STRATFOR report! So I don’t need to pay early for subscription!
Awesome
The sound quality is really bad. Is it going through a 1440 baud modem on an AOL dail-up???
I was gonna say "recorded at 100ft with a hydrophone" but same difference.
Key takeaway. Zeihan is a narrative pusher. Blaming Carlson for making stuff up. Look in the mirror PZ
@@gmw3083Dear Comrade Thank you for your contribution.
@@testymann5045 Thanks for being an Ameritard
@@gmw3083 Nope. Zeihan is attempting to describe the physical realities of the technologies and logistical relationships that exist today. He's basically talking engineering. He's not focused on speculating about the internal workings of "group minds."
A prognosticator who lectures about what someone else actually thinks is lying to you. The human mind's like a twitching nerve in a vat.
None of us know what TF they're going to do.
That was so good.
Always learning from him.
Brilliant audio
daily dose of Peter zeihan
37:18 is wild. 90 knots is 167 km/h, 103 mp/h or 46.3 m/s. A supercarrier is like a floating city.
I'm going to press doubt on that.
A lot of what he says sounds like BS.
Yeah, carriers can't go 80mph. Unless they have planing hull then over "hull speed" the faster the more the ship is sucked down. So maybe 40. Plus fast props make air bubbles so after 40 the props can't push harder. If carriers ever went fast some seaman would tweet about it ... Some Russian torpedos go 70mph use air bubbles up front and rocket behind. The japs had a fast torpedo in 1940 I forget how..
@@Stoddardian Maybe he's like an AI and hallucinates sometimes.
I think he made a mistake which is normal! It is really easy to find the mistakes, because he provides the logic and the data unlike so many others.
The nimitz super carrier travels at 30 knots. The Gerald Ford super carrier travels at 30+ knots. It has 250% more electrical capacity. So Peter Zeihan took the 30 knots and multiplied it with 2.5 resulting in 75 knots. And that's what he said, right? The drone travels with 90 knots.
It is a common mistake. He assumed the relationship between velocity and power is proportional. But the drag increases quadratically, not linearly! So there is no way, it will be able to travel with 75 knots. It is more like 45 knots on maximum power.
This is just a rough estimate. I didn't calculate it. So don't quote me!
Even if that's the case, he claimed a supercarrier can do 90 knots, not 75.
And it's not the case, because they are using the same two A1B reactors. What is changing is that 100% of the power is going to generate electrical power rather than shaft mechanical power. Only an idiot would think they are using this extra power to swim away from drones when they can just shoot them down with lasers _if you got around 30kw per laser_ (and a few Phalanx CIWS just to be safe).
Based on the audio quality I'm guessing Marietta College appently doesn't have a commications program
Overlooking the Ohio River and the opportunity to discuss the Jones Act was missed. I grew up a couple hours North of Marietta, and from what I hear from back home, they could use the economic stimulus that cheaper logistics would bring.
Policy that changes with the times is good. As a critical thinker, I would question outright repeal on the basis of national security and environmental grounds. 2 cents...
Zeihan talks about the jones act frequently enough if you follow his speeches. It is typically a big discussion point for him when discussing the domestic economic picture.
I dont want to trust foreign ships with 100s of foreignors in inland areas for months. In Baltimore 1 ship crashed and closed a harbor for year. Zeihan is sometimes wrong (he predicted Russian oil catastrophe and world famine in year 1). If ships are soooo wonderfully better than rail and truck then having to use Americans shouldn't be such a negative. Transport is under 20% of cost of all goods so not a big factor. Having crews from Greece or Tunisia or Thailand working inside US is sorta weird, noncitizens shouldn't work here, and no offense but I dont trust them. US has cheapest rail in world and cheapest trucking, no need for allowing huge ships to be crewed by foreignors. .. . . . US has learned that shipping predictions are usually sky high, we built Tenn Tomm canal from Paducah to Mobile thru Alabama and none used it except few coal barges. Minnesota is closing locks since few use Mississippi river. Inland waterways always are dream of those who hate rail but never materializes, even Twain admitted rivers have droughts so trains are better to rely on. Hmmmm. It only takes 1 bomb to break a lock or dam for year taking out Illinois waterway, upper Mississippi, Columbia, Great Lakes to Atlantic, so relying on shipping more seems dumb. But just interlinking coast is ok idea, till ships start hitting bridges......
I was just there and prices are rivaling Seattle area prices. It never used to be that way...
For those who are having issues listening, listening experience is improved by changing your audio to Mono
Great talk, I wish the audio was better. Looks like a last minute venue shift.
It's ashame about the audio. Thank you for the information. Peter is great.
He remembers how the dust got there … brilliant
A fun visualisation, with a carrier being pursued by a swarm of drones with it going flat out ! I am sure that the Navy has a modern version of the old German 88mm Flak gun that could deal with them as a group and with no risk to the carrier !
Why the waterfall filter on the question mic?
Wow, he was 5 minutes from where I live!
Thoughtful and provocative, as usual. One issue though: The audio is terrible (both from Zeihan and the audience). It would be great if this could be fixed in the future. Thanks.
Really nice talk, very interesting. Love hearing something more than a retread of his books which most of the content on YT is about. Though, one point I really need to correct him on as it almost made me fall of my chair when he said it.
No Carrier currently deployed or dare I say even sitting on the most top secret drawing board can reach anywhere near 90 knots. The USS Gerald R Ford has official numbers of 30+ knots which would be amazing if it actually did 40. 90 is bonkers and I'm very much sure Peter just misspoke.
I mean, it would be amazingly cool but being absolutely no expert on the subject I still doubt propellers designed for cruising effieciently at around 22 knots fitted to a gigantic machine thats supposed to serve for around 50 years can also somehow manage anywhere even near 50 knots without destroying themselves and the whole driveshaft.
What's up Nathan how you been man? Uploadin' a little PZ? That's cool.
I'm not ever going to be able to see another PZ thumbnail or video title without thinking "Peter '90-knot Carriers' Zeihan".
Agreed, I like Peter but where did that come from?
Audio quality is not as bad as a lot of people are suggesting
Peter is almost always dead on but he has a way of triggering people who have strong feelings about an issue but cannot argue with
Peter's long list of facts and research. I have seen this so many times that these people always resort to name calling and coming
up with conspiracy theories about Peter. What they don't see is the incredible sources of info Peter has and his tendency to allow
the information to shape his conclusions. He is not a political hack but a man who wants to bore down on facts versus opinions.
It was a Goldman Sachs analyst who invented the acronym BRICS, not Merrill Lynch.
13:15 so say the lines do need to be drilled again, is the equipment to do so ready to go. I’m just assuming the length of time was in the need for specialty equipment?
That specialty equipment, and specialty trained personnel, came from top-tier Western sources. BP, Suncor, Haliburton, and others. They've pulled out, and are never coming back - even if the war ended tomorrow.
@@stevehatcher7700 I’m still skeptical if we can sustain ourselves with fracking then they can probably preform some sort of the same there? And the manufacturing of steel pipeline would probably have been done in house, now boring the well, I’m sensing that they have a huge amount of Chinese money to spend and the dependency of china of Russian oil would probably bring about cooperation wow I just said that In my head with extra w’s, but yeah there’s a will and a way along with a billon person incentive, then there is the Frenchman angle Russia seems to be bedfellows with the liquid natural gas so crude oil might just be the next natural step. Geopolitics is more complex if you really think of all of the potential players
@user-zu9ug8hp3d fracking is highly technical. Russia does not have the people with those skills, or the ability to develop the people with those skills, considering their demographic problems. Without serious outside help, they're dead in the water.
China might be a wildcard here. But with their own demographic and economic problems coming down the pipe over the next decade, may not be the ones to get Russian oil back up and running.
@@stevehatcher7700 what about France they already are highly invested in Russian LNG, after this war ends I’m betting both countries are up to bat, and yes technically advanced,but with the five claw spy initiative I’m betting china already has the capability. Basically if a first world country needs a resource they will find a way.
❤ those socks 🧦 🧦
The sox go with the man bun.
I blame the wacky baccy
I agree with you on Israel......
Hamas made the attack they did to force an over-reaction by Israel, which under Netanyahu was a sure thing, to make the world rethink their alliances with Israel. Well, the unintended consequences are that the world does indeed pull back it's support of Israel, but that lets Israel do as it pleases to resolve the two state solution... for good.
90 knots??! A Nimitz or Ford aircraft carrier can potentially go 90 knots? I have never hear anything over 40 knots. Does anyone have any info to back that up?
This is their true level of understanding and competency.
@@Lombardo.diVino.-sd2iv ???
Did they bury the sound gear in used cooking oil?
one could only hope!
fresh oil would cook that audio just as well as used oil.
@ the beginning of the video: Just look at the way they sit on those chairs. What some distinguished gentlemans.
Very good talk. Interesting for sure. However. Any one saying that every thing someone say is wrong and u should not listen to them means that at least u should hear their side. Otherwise they would be ok with hearing them out. Not open minded at all there
The audio is kinda horrible, I have to be super focused just to listen especially the questions.
if only sound could have been a little clearer.🙏
Audio was atrocious but as always Peter is brilliant and interesting
Great discussion but it’s very hard to understand the questions because of poor microphone quality
Whoever can put up with annoyance of that thing on your head should definitely keep it… it’s an achievement in zen indeed.
Good info what a rookie broadcast.
POOR quality audio :-(
Wow - fresh Z man stuff
Thank you Nathan
🦄
Cool talk but audio quality has more left to be desired. I suggest consulting with audio tech specialist to get a better functional sound recording setup there. Difficult at times to make out the audience questions.
I made it one minute in and gave up on the sound
It's interesting if gossip is your thing, but he makes a lot of wild claims without any evidence.
some subtitles would be great!
I love this Guy but poor poor audio
i question the super carrier stat 90knots is like 103mph. sounds like BS. imagine a carrier getting up on plane
I don't know what current carriers do, but my grandfather was on the sea trials of the Enterprise. They did a speed run and it took almost twice as long as the speed run took for the escorts to catch up.
Now the Enterprise was something special. They didn't know how many reactors to put in because they'd never done it before. So they decided eight was a good number. Modern carrier use two plus they can sprint with oil.
I do not know what the new super Carriers use. Four generations of my family have worked at Newport News ship. I am the only one that did not make it a career.
I do know the new electronic launch systems need a lot more electricity. So I would not be surprised that they snuck it back up to four reactors.
His number is probably based on possible reactor steam generation capability, but that isn't the right information. The steam turbines and cavitation of the propellers are likely the limiting factors.
CVN78 has four props that look like fairly normal containership propellers. If each prop could get a vessel the size of an aircraft carrier up to 20 knots, the likely top speed that four propellers support is likely around double that.
@@ianmcmahon8589 I heard an Admiral say something vague and interesting recently when talking about the Littoral combat ships, they were the second fastest surface ships in the Navy.... Given he excluded subs in that statement then... connect the dots.
Yeah, I'm not buying that. Maybe 60 knots on a newer one. Even if the reactor can, there's a whole lot of the rest of the ship that would have a problem with that. And if it can, this info is highly classified.
Facts aren't important in PZs whirled
Drone races plus Australian waked cardboard drones with a couple kilograms of cargo.
March 22, 2024
The sound is clipped at the top plus other stuff ,I can't identify .
Gaza death toll at 2% is "mind bogglig"? Compared to what? WWII at 600 million? I don't know what percentage of the belligerents' populations that makes, but I would call that "mind boggling" at least in sheer numbers if not percentages.
His News source is AlJezeera
The source from those figures are the Palestinian Health Authority and its been proven that their figures are statistically impossible, in any set of combat statistics you see peaks and deep valleys in casualties, but in Gaza you see figures continually rising by 15% steadily, every day, the numbers are a statistical impossibility and completely fabricated
The MIC has found a new Iraq.
It is mostly opinions and quite a few debatable ones at that. Few battle ships if any can go over 33 knots. Tiny ones could go at 45 knots max
Yeah, 90kts is ridiculous.. That kind of speed is hydroplane territory. Speed has mostly to do with the shape of the vessel, and how it flows through water. A ship capable of that Speed wouldn't carry much.
@@NoName-kq9kl he misspoke probably
El Jazeera is a reliable news source? 😂
The claim that a super carrier could steam at 90 knots by "opening up" its nuclear power plant to full capacity is ridiculous for a whole host of reasons. It makes me skeptical of many other spectacular assertions that Peter makes in areas where I have less expertise.
Boy does this guy love himself 😂
Crazy to think the NSA are top-dawgs for hacking. I work there and I didn't even know that.
Those 100kt drones are in the wind - if the carrier flees into the wind and it's blowing at least 10 knots, the drones are going to never catch up, and will run out of fuel. Even in 0 wind, with a 10kt advantage, how many hours of fuel do they have? The carrier has years of fuel for propulsion of the vessel. If they are detected and the ship starts fleeing when they are 40kts away, do they have 4 hours of fuel remaining? I doubt it. They would also need 400nmi of open seas into which to flee. However, I also doubt the claimed top speed of 90kts. These are large displacement hulls - I'd have to do some math, but I doubt that the total output of the two reactors with say 80% efficiency applied to thrust, would be enough to get them to that speed. I suppose they could have some bubble injection system to create something like super cavitation to reduce water friction -- or some other exotic tech to achieve the same - that would change the math completely, but in the absence of such a system, I doubt much past 50kts is realistic.
Nuclear carriers. They dont run out of fuel...well maybe in 10000 yrs.
None of the articles I could find about replicator talked about manufacturing drones on the ship, it's just a ship carrying a lot of cheap ("attritable") reusable combat drones. Making them on board sounds like an early idea that'll never happen, or a PZ bit error. Also a 90kt aircraft carrier, do you remember Macross? I doubt USN carriers are designed to go that fast even if the reactors can output the raw power. It would be cool, maybe outfit it with drop down hydrofoil water wings, so it can get to Taiwan or the ME in a day or two... Preferably with its carrier group so it's not naked in the theater. Carriers don't like to get naked in public.
While his theories are based in logic.. never underestimate your enemy.. not for one second
I thought the best hackers in the world were the ones you dont hear about...lol
2:48 respectfully, related to Islam in someway yes, but Chechen's are not Turkic.It is difficult to impart value when so many small details are off.
If what he says about global demography is true we're on the verge of the greatest dysgenic catastrophe in human history.
Birth rate has been well below replacement rate in much of the world for decades. That’s been known. What Peter brings to this issue is a perspective on consequences. At some point, those consequences become non-linear. China will probably be next, but Russia, South Korea, and Germany are also approaching that cliff. Japan has already passed that. Each country will be a different story; some will end worse than others.
It’s not always doom and gloom. Japan had three lost decades, but is beginning some level of recovery. They have trade agreements with the USA and others. They have the second largest blue-water navy in the world. Japan (and now Germany) have outsourced production to the countries where they sell, which gets around lack of skilled labor (demographics) and other resources. I see this in action: I live in the USA, and drive a Japanese car (built in America). I work for a Japanese multinational, building software for the American market. I play a Japanese piano, but it was built in Maylasia.
China cannot take that path. They’ve burned their bridges, diplomatically, economically, and commercially. It’s going to go very badly for them, and for many other countries.
@@dianewilson7415 You're leaving out the African population explosion.
@@Stoddardian I didn't mention Africa, or South America. The discussion was about highly industrialized countries facing demographic collapse. Many countries are likely to face famine because food shipments will drop, and agricultural supplies such as fertilizer and equipment will be hard to come by (and very expensive). It has the possibility to be a catastrophe for many parts of the world.
@@Stoddardian It will surely be big a big human catastrophe, but not the greatest. In the Book of Revelation, some passages goes over the four horsemen of the apocalypse and some special plagues sent by Yah. Overall, 1/3 of mankind gets wrecked by the sword. Another 1/3 by famine. And yet another by 1/3 by pestilence.
When I say wrecked, I mean 'death.'
Nooqs are the new sword. And we got thousands of nooqs. Deglobalization could accelerate the famine process.
But pestilence? Not sure how that's gonna happen. We had Sars in 2020. But that wasn't lethal.
I'm talking something demonic. Like the Black Plagu--
Boy, had no idea that Peter is infected with group think
15:33 he's talking about privacy laws. It's been the solution for a while now when it comes to preventing mass "crime." Adjust some of the laws to allow federal agencies enforcement of intercepted communications. If you want to know why Nicholas Cruz didn't get caught ahead of time, that's why. Let them challenge citizens who make public threats and also private ones.
We are already working on anti drone systems. Will get better over time.
Did Peter say super carriers can go at 90 knots?
They can go about half of that. I’m not sure where he’s getting this from.
@@crobinson93 I have been a staunch follower of Peter. After this statement though, I need to listen with more skeptcism.
He probably meant 90 kph which would be 48.6 knots.
he did. and it's nonsense. served on three of 'em.
Peter's military analyses have never been that good on details- he gets the broad strokes strategy and logistics side of things; but his knowledge of platforms, weapons systems etc. is pretty short. Though having said that; there have been persistent "rumors" since the 80's that the nuclear powered Carriers can go much faster than anybody thinks... All the Navy will admit to is 30+ knots, but I've seen estimates based their reactor power as high as 50 knots. Maybe Peter knows something I/we don't- maybe he just made a mistake citing a figure off the top of his head.
You sure he can remember
Zeihan has the other T.D.S. (Tucker Derangement Syndrome)
Tucker is a clown.
Zeihan says Tucker was fired from every job. Yes, After 14 years🤣🤣🤣🤣And now has a larger audience. Zeihan's obsession with Tucker is suspicious.
Thanks Peter! As an Armenian American I would like to know what is Turkey/Russia/Azerbaijan alliance and why you never mentioned about this dangerous situation!? This might be a bigger danger down the road for America and Europe!
Aw. He was in atlanta?
ow. ohio
Absolute disrespect to record this QA in this audio quality.
Middle east just needs an intervention...this whole time.
Cannot understand the questions so the answers are also hard to understand
Shame this was recorded in 1992
The ISIS-K analysis defies what was demonstrated on the day by the attackers.
You need to do a better sound check l could not understand one question...if it's my hearing l apologise
In 2015 I crowdfunded a documentary to be made about a family of four that was going to live for a year without using anything made in China.
Seven months later. My money was sent back with the message that they discovered that it simply was not possible to do so.
Let that sink in 😮
I think one thing Peter overlooks is chaos dynamics.
China •Might• alter as we currently know it, but we don't know what might rise from it. We don't know, no one knows, what a Post Xi China may look like. We don't know what will happen to all of its military assests. We don't know how AI systems controls will play out in making up for demographic declines in warfare.
China is something we should be absolutely concerned with 10 years from now, even if they have a mass economic collapse- there is always the potential for something new to rise. Even as a model- when the Soviet Union collapsed, The Russian Federation eventually replaced it. And we are now left with many of the same prior issues, including geographical security.
It is unwise to simply shove the problem under the rug, because they have not collapsed Yet and they get a say in what happens.
Or, in the event of chaos dynamics, China could just start launching the nooqs tomorrow. They are already going to go down. So, we don't really know what can happen. Don't forget 2020. The whole entire world flipped upside down in the span of a second. Good grief that was insane.
Z is BURNT OUT
"They's started hacking the Houthis who don't have electricity."
How's that work?
Great video but I have one bone to pick. America supporting Israel has the major effect of preventing any one of the Arabs from reforming something similar to the Ottoman empire. That would either force Europe to become nationalists again or they will conquer the middle east and become energy Independent imperialists. They need that energy and won't let two empires bully them for long over oil. The fact that America supports but doesn't occupy is why things are stable and not much worse. We can't choke anyone without consequences. I can't believe Peter's amazing foresight missed that!
Europe r wimps, will not invade anyone for oil. Mideast with oil in 1930 made world better off even if have to pay jerk sheiks. Only goal since then is keep sheik distrusting sheik to avoid OPEC price rise like 1967 and 1977, and we ve mostly suceeded. Iran/Iraq/Syria are nice balance to Gulf, perfect lack of trust Sunni vs Shia, little chance of OPEC embargo. Oil runs out in 2130 and nuclear should be common by then. Arabs speak 20 dialects, and now middle class 10% are skipping Arabic and going with English, so this is NOT a block that can easily unify. Can Thai, Cambodia, Burma unify into a Buddhist major power? Luckily the top sheik the descendant of Muhammed and king of Morocco speaks a truly silly dialect and wears silly Moroccoan clothes so truly no 1 ruler is able to lead.
Microphones are hard
49:25 Correction - Joe Biden use to remember.
GDay - Yes the audio is really bad...
Followed peter for over 10 years. To bad he has become a never Trumper this past year.