The U.S. Economy Just Hit a Major “Inflection Point” (Ray Dalio Interview)
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- čas přidán 13. 06. 2024
- Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater Associates) is warning of a huge inflection point occurring in the U.S. economy. With the debt snowball continuing to spiral under the force of high interest rates, can the U.S. reverse the trend, or with this turn into a full scale economic crisis?
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 The Economic Inflection Point
1:30 How Investors View Bond Yields
3:17 The Current U.S. Deficit Crisis
4:00 Why Nobody Wants U.S. Bonds
5:35 Satisfying the Creditor
6:18 Squeezing the People
6:55 The Big Debt Rollover
8:00 The Debt Snowball
10:00 Can the U.S. Fix the Underlying Problem?
Brandon van der Kolk is authorised to provide general financial product advice in Australia and is an Authorised Representative (Number 1305795) of Guideway Financial Services Pty Ltd, AFSL Number 420367. Any advice is general & does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives so consider whether it's appropriate for you. Read Brandon's Financial Services Guide available from guideway.com.au/NewMoney.pdf. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
Contact email: hello@newmoney.contact
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Thank you guys so much for your overwhelming support of New Money Education. It really does mean the world to me and the team. We're fighting a massive uphill battle of correcting the negative stigma of crappy stock market courses, but we're very excited to release these products, and the early feedback has been so amazing to hear. It literally took a team of 5 full-time employees around 9 months to finish these courses, so we're just a little bit relieved haha! If you're interested in checking them out, they can be found here. newmoney.education/
Anyway, thanks always for the support everyone. You enable us to do what we do here on CZcams, and I don't take that for granted. I appreciate you guys!
Cheers,
Brandon.
Thanks for your videos, would it be possible to mention Date of interview?😊
Cant you do anything about the overwhelming amount of bots in the comment section?
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Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service/
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
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I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $450k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Carol Pasol Lewis is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
You can put in stocks...but don't put everything in stocks...diversify in gold, stocks, funds, debt funds etc.,
Depending on your risk...you can change the percentage of all these different assets...
Don't try to time the market...you cqn never win...
The S&P 500 moved 8.9% higher in November, achieving one of its best monthly performances in history.. which is an indicator for profits to continue to improve. I just want my money to keep outgrowing the inflation rate. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...
Off course, but Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
Could you kindly leave your investment advlsor's contact information here? I absolutely must have one.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Ray Dalio predicts economic crisis every 23 minutes.
And he’s certain to be right, eventually.
Eye of the storm mate
Totally, I don't listen to his predictions any longer. There are other experts who are more specific with their forecasts, timing and track record
Let’s see now I can believe a multibillionaire who got rich speculating or some libtard on the internet.
Michael Jordan's number; Le Born James' number; David Beckham's number.
Munger and Buffett have both achieved an incredible feat with Berkshire. They've turned thousands to billions, and have made a lot of people wealthy in the process. I really saw the potential of the stock market by reading Berkshire's annual letters. I recently sold my $674k apartment in the Bel Air area and I'm hoping to throw it into the stock market. I just don't want to lose everything.
Most individuals are either impatient or do not grasp the significance of compound interest. Nonetheless, I believe that the wisest course of action for the typical person would be to invest in the S&P 500 and wait-a strategy that is dependable even though it takes several years. Alternatively, you may merely hire a qualified analyst to create riches more quickly. The majority of people underestimate the latter's strength.
You and I both agree. I lost a lot of money when I first started investing on my own. Following the 2020 crash, I managed to extract around $200k. With the help of an analyst, I invested the funds and made about $673,0 in profit in just seven months.
The concept of investing through an expert genuinely appeals to me. Sounds like the best course of action available in the market at the moment. Please, could you let me know who you collaborate with?
I personally deal with "Emily Lois Parker," who helps with insurance, investing, retirement planning, tax benefits, and creating a volatility buffer for investment risk. a lot of similar items. Just search for her entire name online. Finding her shouldn't be that difficult because she is highly recognized.
Many thanks. I've already sent an email after looking her over. I am hoping for a prompt response from her. It's something I've been considering doing for a while, but I've already put it off long enough.
Its one thing to watch the market; its another to see Amazons AMS79X cause a seismic ripple through it. Feels like were part of something thatll be written in the history books of finance.
In conclusion we’re screwed.
This is far worse than the “deficit” would lead you to believe. Any amount of tax increases or budget cuts big enough even to make a dent in the numbers the government admits to would cause an economic collapse all by themselves. The only option is to keep printing & borrowing more & more until the wheels come off.
Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 266% while USA only 128%. I remember economists pointing out Japan in the 1990's saying any day now that "inflection point"... Well 30 years later here we are. Hop on a plane & visit Japan, they're chugging along just fine. A sovereign nation's debt is not the same as a household or a business. This just fearmongering no different to the world ending in 2000 & 2012. Every time it's a fearmongering hoax.
Watching Amazons AMS79Xs trajectory is like witnessing the first steps of a child prodigy, each stride surer, stronger, and more assertive than the last, a prelude to the marathons it will one day run.
You are a shill account.
Bot comment lmfao
Lot of changes in this industry with AMS79X leading the assets. Amazon made this one the AMS79X and obviously that is great for everyone to hear that even brands like them are stepping into this
Your editing is top notch! Congrats 😊
That was a brilliant explanation. Thank you so much!
Both institutions and individuals are basically destined to be fully into AMS79X because the biggest of them all, a giant tech giant, made it and the reality is now stronger than ever. It wont ever be as cheap too
You are a shill account.
We're always at an inflection point... Not saying the great financial minds are wrong, but it's exhausting keeping up with all the doomsday warnings
They all crave the spotlight. Usually just talking heads. The Fed. is advised by 600 Ph.D. economists and CBO by more still. Should we all be concerned? Yes. Terrified? No. But many of our problems can be laid at the feet of the poor quality of the people elected by voters to state houses and to Congress. All tax and budgetary legislation arises in the House. Electing ignorant hacks is a real problem.
It sells better
just ignore it then
do you think the US in general is on a positive trajectory?
@@mdstmouse7 absolutely not
Thanks kevin, always enjoy your "time is running out" pressure.
Love your videos!!!!!❤❤❤
How do you translate this information and point of view into formulating an investment strategy?
Great video. Helps people like me who is learning how things figure out how the system works
US could decrease the military budget for the sake of financial stability and peace in world. Everybody would benefit.
That would be last on the list
@@braddempsy9845 you are one of those that think that you bring peace and prosperity to all? Blessed are the countries that are unimportant to you.
US could cut its military budget by at least half.
@@Michael_NVIm pretty sure he means that the US wont do that, not his personal choice 🤷🏻♂️
At present this is not an option as a victory of Putin would make the world even more dangerous. But rewinding the tax cuts for the very rich would help a lot to reduce the deficit. But money steers us politics too much.
Anyone know the link to the original share course, I have misplaced it.
Welcome to Zimbabwe.
Dalio's theory is that the T bond rates need to be higher so that investors actually buy them. The fact is, regardless if they are 4% or 1% the demand stays the same. The main buyers of bonds are countries that receive USD from their exports. This USD is then remitted in exhange for US gov bonds regardless of the rate... the demand for T bonds is not a product of the their coupon rate. It has to do with international trade in the USD.
So, the mad US gov debt ponzi scheme will continue unabated from 30 trillion to 300 trillion and beyond as the bankers and international financiers get richer at the expense of quality of life for the rest.
High inflation and low T bond rates is leading many countries to shrink their USD exposure and do bilateral trades in their native currencies.
Our budget deficit is half our total world imports already. Your theory while partially true misses the key detail that not 100% of USD return via treasuries, and nothing forces them too.
The demand is not constant, and the last big bond auction revealed the lack of demand. The banks were forced to buy. The fed is the buyer of last resort and they aint buying right now.
You are correct. Germany had negative rate bonds for over a decade with no issues.
@@TheLazyVideoNo it’s not. The US dollar is more used in international trade than ever before. And Inflation in the US and around is back down to normal levels at around 3% inflation. Which is arguably better to sustain than 2% inflation
Brilliant Job done Brandon
Loved this
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In my opinion, the pandemic has underscored the significance of diversifying income sources. Merely having a job doesn't guarantee security; the true assurance lies in cultivating various investments.
Informative video.
Would you suggest waiting to buy ETFS right now or continue buying?
This should be required training for all US lawmakers (who are the ones who appropriate spending).
Everyone needs more than their salary to be financial stable. The best thing to do with your money is to invest it rightly, because money left for saving always end up used with no returns.
Wow buddy, that's more than a mouthful of profits you're making. How do you achieve this feat consistently? You must be a genius in trading.
Sarah O'Neill her trading strategies are top notch coupled with the little commission she charges on her trade.
really are you giving her your money or your coin?
My coin stays right in my trading account, my account just mirrors her trades in real-time.that's the idea behind copy trading.
Have never made 20% of my $15,000 worth of bitcoin once ever since I started hold from August.
Ray Dalio is a genius, great video
I guess the simplest thiNG for the govt is to increase the tax for gold and other commodities until it is higher than the proposed tax on bonds.
Great video
I wasn’t able to get the 397 price this weekend any chance you can help!?
Observing the market with Amazons AMS79X in play is like watching the ebb and flow of the tides, governed by a moon thats suddenly closer, suddenly exerting a pull thats both irresistible and inscrutable.
You are a shill account.
Id love to see politicians cut spending but it will never happen. Working in government often we intentionally blow our budget because, "if you don't use it you lose it" the burocracy kills us but at the same time its a corrupt system.
Cheers from Canada
Greetings.
After taxes charged on that bond interest situation is even worse. If inflation is 3% and I pay 50% taxes, bond interest should be 6% just to save my money, forget about profit. And real inflation is much higher than official numbers.
This would be 100% better if it was just Ray Dalio talking.
Trump era tax cuts: 10-year shortfall at $0.7T - $1.1T! gg
Berkshire Hathaway has $100 Billion in T-Bills. For 2023 this produces $5 Billion income. This covers their $4 Billion debt. The remaining $1 Billion income taxed at 50% ($500 million) goes to the Federal Government. (I am making an assumption here obviously.) My point is that nothing is cut and dried. Dalio and that other guy need to get their clocks fixed.
You are correct. Germany had negative rate bonds for over a decade with no issues.
Not quite understanding this. Does the FED have to pay higher rate of Int on all that debt BUT they lower rates for the economy when it crashes? how can there be 2 rates??
He didn't tweet that.
Can you make a video about the fundamentals of $GME? I think its really undervalued at a market cap of 3.9B$ they have 1B$ in Cash no debt at all and around 1B$ of Assets. Looking forward to your opinion!
So are we saying that taxes need to go up?
I feel like Im in an alternate reality where Amazons AMS79X has flipped the script, turned the page, and started writing a whole new chapter in the annals of trade and commerce.
@@B-kl8vjIf it's spammed everywhere, then it's scambots
Stupid Bots
they're bots trying to pump the stock @@B-kl8vj
If there is reducong long-term demand for US debt which justifies a higher yield to place this debt, but at the same time higher yields are not sustainable given weak income creation (low GDP growth), why couldn't we just simply see another round of the Fed stepping up to buy the excess supply, with some sort of yield curve control as we are seeing in Japan (although for different reasons)?
The US economy is growing very fast. It’s the fastest growing developed economy in the world. In 2023 the IMF says China’s economy has declined to $17.7 Trillion while the US economy has increased to $26.95 Trillion
Anyone got a track name for the music around 0:30 ??
From memory both songs are by an artist called Dreem, I think the first song is called Spectre!
czcams.com/video/45SpUktdeVA/video.htmlsi=v2qANH6N2-2Wlnwh
I just hope that long term US Debt crisis doesn't end up destroying global economy for decades. US dollar and its sovereign guarantee is definitely under serious threat. The higher the interest rates the worse it is for the businesses. Overall this is a serious catch 22 situation.
Becoming exactly like Argentina
I know that you are not political. But can you talk about Argentina situation? Especially them possibly moving to the American dollar?
He didn't speak about other income sources the US government has. Just mentioned bonds and taxes....
It’s hard to argue the logic. It would be interesting to see some maths behind this “inflection” point.
math
Balanced budget? lol yeah right
So now, there is too much debt
Sure increasing the tax is a solution only when the rich and corporations aren't forced to pay them
That news reporter needs it lol
The other way out is to increase productivity that leads to higher GDP growth, which will make higher debt more manageable. There’s only one country that can achieve this the best.
China
تمنياتي بالتوفيق والنجاح الدائم
Any minute now. Any day now.
For the past 12 years or so.
This has to be by design, these are smart people
How are people even losing money on bonds? Why would you sell?????
Prime Rate below 5% was never meant to be more than temporary measures. It is unsustainable.
If rates are too low, then you cannot lower it temporarily when you need to give a quick boost.
Half our economic problems lately are because of Fed rates being unsustainably low for too many years.
10 years of money printing and zero interest rates.
Nuanced point - when Ray says "raise taxes", he means "raise revenues".
It may be a good video idea to cover how tax rates and revenues are not the same thing, and how they can have an inverse relationship.
Yes, it was a significant over-simplification.
Didn't I hear this thirty years ago.
It is always good to have a financial plan. I work with a professional planner and fixed-income strategist in NY. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won't simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
Very true, people downplay planners role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license-fiduciary advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, I liquidated 200k of 325k from my 401k it has yield nearly 1M after subsequent investments so far.
To combat the negative effect of inflation, it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, since this can help protect your portfolio against inflation. I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $550k during recessions
I appreciate giving an investment coach the power of decision-making. Given their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risk for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it is practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $745k working with an investment coach for more than two years.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
Find Camille Anne Hector online, then get in touch with her. She’s well renowned for her work as a consequence of a recent Bloomberg piece. She has a homepage devoted to consultations, so you'll need to ask her about her rates.
Interesting, Very Educative Convo, I'm a newbie to this financial world and i would love to know more, if you don't mind me asking Who is this person? Is she worth recommending?
Yes Of Course, My mentor Camille Anne Hector has extensive training and knowledge in the financial industry. She is regarded as an authority in the field and has an in-depth understanding of portfolio diversification. I advise doing more study on his credentials. she is a great resource for anyone looking to understand the financial market because of her extensive experience.
I guess the bit I’m struggling to understand is: debt payment as a % to GDP. Isn’t the payment of this debt still very small relative to GDP? So if one year the American economy grew by 10%, the extra growth should cover the interest payments and more?
I might be wrong here
Very wrong
The premise that U.S. debt to GDP ratio is low is wrong. U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio as of 3Q 2023 is approximately 130%, which puts it 10th highest in the world debt-to-GDP ratio ranking. Considering that most of the countries in the top 10 ranking have very extreme political/socioeconomic circumstances (e.g. Greece that defaulted in 2015, Venezuela with hyperinflation, Sudan and Lebanon suffering from the aftermath of multiple wars, etc.), U.S. is placed exceptionally high on the list. The premise of your argument itself is wrong and so your following argument is naturally wrong as well.
@@since2uh any financial association with those countries is worrying.
@@since2US debt to GDP is ratio is 125%. Our 2023 GDP is $27 Trillion and government debt is $33.8 Trillion. Which is a good place for it to be. Most developed countries have around 100% debt to GDP ratio. There’s no country more capable of pays its debts than the USA and there’s no chance America will ever default on its debt unless it’s due to politics. Trying to equate the US to Greece, Lebanon, Venezuela etc is hilarious. America will never be in their situation and we are not in any danger of hyperinflation or economic collapse. Inflation in the US is very low and economic growth is great, the US is the fastest growing developed economy
US total debt to GDP ratio of about 270% is still lower than China or Japan who both have total debt to GDP ratios of 300%
This will be the ultimate stress test of the Union.
If only those in charge could just stop spending more than we take in. It's probably already too late.
They"ll have to raise taxes. The rich who are talking about this because they understand it are avoiding mentioning raising taxes because they know they will be the ones paying it. The middle class is already overburdened.
US has been running a deficit since 1980s. We have deflation more than inflation during that time, so there must be other factors. One thing that could make difference is that boomers are retiring, so savings will be reduced. Also china and others have bought US debt , so dollar would not depreciate against their currency, to maintain trade deficit. In any case, many other factors affect inflation that dalio doesnt seem to look at.
Dave Ramzey for gov't.
Do? Nothing. Steady as she goes, full steam ahead. Inflexion? Bah!
Hasn't he been saying the sky is falling for literally years?
Great channel btw
Sorry you missed one important aspect. THE FED CAN FINANCE THE GOVERNMENT AT 0 INTEREST. This is true because every bit of profit Fed receives from interest payment from Govt or anyone else is funnelled back into the government. So essentially the government can borrow at 0 interest as long as Fed buys the Treasury
A country known for over spending has to smarten up. It's like that friend you don't talk to anymore that takes vacations by running everything on their credit card. Or that cousin that bought an ordinary car but "needed" to get the GT package because it has way better performance and makes fun sounds perfect for going to work and going to get groceries (also bought with credit with an awful rate)
Lower government spending is the only logical conclusion
We will all die!
So, from an average Joe's perpective, are bonds a good thing to buy or not?
stocks. always stocks. fk bonds.
Thats like asking your bank and government yo pay their fair share and be fiscally responsibile, which as we all know is impossible.
All these fund managers who have been talking about a recession since many years might actually be having huge short positions and in order to increase their chance of winning, they often give tall sensational claims in the media creating some panic. Never fully believe and depend on anyone, do your own research and make wise investments and trades always. 😎😎😎
Right on brother
@@EpicGamer-ux1tu welcome bro.
Virtually all of them underperform the broad market over time. Talking heads abound and no one should ever invest their money based on their comments.
You can't borrow your way out of debt.
The rich will need to pay their share to help reduce that annual deficit (major tax cuts in America helped add a full quarter to the national debt during trump’s tenure) and gov will need to restructure how it spends money.
Rich will take there money elsewhere
@@braddempsy9845 they had the money in the us before trumps tax cuts. And there are possibilities of international taxation.
@@sebschl7546 the rich are rich because they know how to hide there money from governments. The governments are also reluctant to tax the rich because they are the people who create the jobs which in turn pays the government in taxes. Capitalism at its best. They will tax the poor as much as they can and then look at cutting costs.
Ray is a maniac and very good at marketing…..himself
It's fair to be sceptical of Ray Dalio but the fundamental economics are right. The USA needs to balance it's budget if it wants to continue being the world's reserve currency. But with the current political climate, that's never going to happen.
I respected you well, but putting courses for education for $ puts you right into modern day fake guru categories. 😢
universities charge money for courses. Does that mean they are teaching fake content?
@whereisthevolume3648 this is exactly the negative stigma we're trying to combat. Please, please, please don't knock it til you try it. If you take the course and hate it, I encourage you to plaster your reviews all over social media. Just see the quality of what we're offering before you make a judgement!
Another option besides taxes and lower spending is to nationalise or start profitable buisnesses
Yeah yeah…. Sit down old man
He’s absolutely correct and Congress and the President need to compromise by cutting spending, ending programs and raising taxes.
Germany had negative rate bonds for over a decade with no issues. People mistakenly think bonds are for retail/ corporate investors. It is for countries/ central banks to mitigate import export risks.
Very easy to fix it, reduce budget deficit. That is it😂😂😅😅
Every bank in the US is insolvent right now. All it takes is one domino.
Everything depends on your budgeting . 1000$ in AMS79X is 4000 AMS79X and a significant gain we do not even know where the ATH will be. after all stages are finalized I estimate 500% gain is nothing to be crazy about how unrealistic that would be. I mean
The American Empire 🇺🇸🦅 crumbles.
Just return back to basics
This is a game. Its been a game for thousands of years lol.
Why are there hedge funds in the US shorting the US bonds then? Is this because they believe the repayment is less then the interest? thoughts?
My summary: the party is over, no more drinks, time to pay the bill, and no time for a hangover because you better show up at work at 8am.
i miss when you weren't a FUD channel