Winning Day! I MLB Best Bets, Picks, & Predictions for Today, May 14th! I Dinger Tuesday!
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- čas přidán 7. 06. 2024
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Timecodes:
0:00 - Intro
2:31 - Yesterday's Recap
3:42 - Good Hitter Matchups
5:04 - Good Pitcher K Matchups
5:52 - Pitcher Report
9:13 - Best Bet
12:17 - Leans
14:10 - Bets Recap - Sport
🚨 3 Added Plays (Possibly 1 More Coming Still)
⚾Bet #2: Los Angeles Angels Team Total Under 1.5 Runs F5 Innings (-130 on DK) *1 UNIT.... This is an Under Team Total in the First 5 Innings. I am surprised we are getting playable odds here honestly. You could take a bit more of a chance and go with Sonny Gray Under 1.5 ER's Allowed at +130 if you want. I expect Gray to go 6+ Innings in this game, so taking the TT Under in the F5 Innings gets rid of any innings Gray throws after the 5th. Anyways, the Angels have been pretty bad since Trout left the lineup. They have the 5th LOWEST OBP, 3rd LOWEST Walk Rate, 22nd Best WRC+ vs RHP. 5 of the last 7 RHP's have given up 1 or less ER's vs the Angels, and Sonny Gray is 1 of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Gray has 6 starts this season and 2 of them were against the good Brewers offense where he gave up 2 runs and 6 runs. Other than that, he has given up 3 ER's in 24 Innings Pitched! Obviously, the difference here is that I am taking an Under on Runs scored, so it doesn't matter if they are earned or not... I need the Angels to have 1 or less ER's. Let's hope the Cards defense doesn't make a bunch of mistakes in this one. Give me the Angels TT Under 1.5 Runs for the F5 for the struggling Angels.
⚾Bet #3: Reece Olson (Tigers) Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105 on ESPN Bet & Bet MGM) *1 UNIT.... I love this play here. I have faded the Marlins many times this season with Pitcher OUts for many reasons (Reminder: Max Fried threw a complete game in 1 of those wins). The Marlins have seen the 5th Fewest Pitches, have the Highest Chase Rate, and have the 5th Highest 1st Pitch Swing Rate, They are a dream to face when you want quick outs. On the other side, Reeces Pieces has been really solid this season and it has been against tough competition as well. He has faced the Guardians, Royals, Twins, & Yankees in his last 4 matchups. He went 6 Inn & 7 Inn in 2 of those starts and 5 in the other 2. In his only 2 Home Starts this season, he has gone over this line in both of them. Those were against the Rangers and Royals! Olson has been ELITE at inducing ground balls, so this could be a match made in heaven for keeping the pitch count down. He is in the 97th Percentile of inducing Ground Balls and has yet to give up a HR in his 39.1 Innings!! I think he has a chance to go more than 6 Innings in this matchup if he is on his game, but I just need the 6 Innings for the 3rd Straight time at home in a great matchup!
⚾️ Bet #4: William Contreras & Bobby Witt Jr 1+ Hit Each (-109 on FD) *1 UNIT... We are running it back with Contreras. He just had 3 hits and now has 1+ Hit in 14 of last 15 games. Witt is 5 for 9 vs Gilbert as I showed on the good Hitter Matchups. He is hitting .304 on the season. I like both of them to get a hit tonight.
I tailed you on the Olson outs prop, so if it doesn't hit, you know why. 😂😂
@@ericsmith7502 Haha good to know! Good 13 putch 1st inning for him. Let's hope he keeps it rollin! 🔥
@@JustABetOutsideCashed that no sweat. 💰💰 He's through 7 and still lookin good. Appreciate your insight on that man. 💪💪
@@ericsmith7502 You got it! 👍 I love those easy wins. Marlins are a great team to fade. They swing at everything and barely do much with it! Let's keep it rollin!
Gotta respect my guy Ozuna, he's 5 for 15 vs Taillon and not on your list, he's gonna smash one easy today +330 FD
He’s on the list
@@EricJohnson-mp7db You are correct
I’ll put ozuna bases
Love my boy Ozuna! Good luck!
Kyle Tucker, Astros, HR +310 DraftKings 🤟🏽 GL everybody🍀
Thanks Steve for your energy and transparency! 💛
You got it, thank you! Appreciate ya. 🤙 Good luck!!
Jake Cronenworth +630 FanDuel
100% correct on the WW2 fact about US grenades being relatively the size and weight of baseballs.
Army vet, I threw a shit tonne of grenades during my service and I have also played a lot of baseball since childhood so I guess it all worked out for me in the end.
Still alive and kickin'!
Speaking of baseball, that Padres loss today was one of the most woeful and disgusting things i've seen in ages.
Game was on a plate for San Diego multiple times and not only did they diarrhoea the bed they pee'd into the toaster whilst it was still on.
Absolutely pathetic, the wages to play success of that team just doesn't add up.
Padres faded from now on.
Good on the Colorado Rockies for getting the win, they were more hungry for it at the end of the day.
Thanks for all your work and knowledge shared good sir, best of luck to you in all your future wagers :).
Funny I was waiting on the Padres to win my parlay…. And of coarse I woke up disappointed 😢
Thanks for the comment my man and for your service! Good to know that it was correct. It definitely seemed to work out for a lot of veterans back in the day. Yea that Padres loss was brutal. I have a feeling they crush the Rockies today after that game last night.
You are welcome, happy to help! Thanks for your support! Good luck today!
@@mikecrone condolences brother, I feel your pain.
Carlos Santana +680 FD
Have you heard about the new game called quiet tennis? It's like regular tennis without the racket.
Haha yep I like that one, but I may have used it already during the NBA season.... or at least I thought about it. Lol
Josh Naylor +420 FD
Bryan De La Cruz +500 DraftKings
Alec Bohm +750 Fan Duel
Freddie Freeman +700 DK
#dinger Carlos Santana (Twins) HR +680 @ FD
Travis Jankowski (TX) +1100 DK
Mike Tauchman(Cubs), FD, +1100
Parlayed your hit lay with COS hit lay and boosted for +306 on FD. Appreciate the research
Sweet! Happy to be a part of a winner!
Jared Kelenic ATL HR +750 on Fan Duel
Kyle Tucker +400 FD
Machado +440 FanDuel
ROCKIES DIDNT GET EVEN ONE STRIKE OUT VS THE padres pitcher Vasquez last night. When his over/under was 5.5 ROCKIES just saw Cease and have improved IMMENSELY since the home stand. I TRULYYYY doubt Cease gets them for 9k's after their 5 game win streak! Rox will lose but man 9k's are too many in my mind. I have been a die hard Rockies fan and watch EVERY GAME. Im willling to go out on a limb and say 8 is the highest they will get vs Cease tonight....even if he is on his game! Lets watch and see!
Thanks for the comment. 8.5 is a lot for sure. I can see between 8-10. Its wild how.much the Rockies have been steiking out on the road the last few weeks. Over 31% is crazy high. We will see what gives. It will probably be clpse
I enjoy your picks
Thanks, happy to hear it... and I appreciate the support!
Will Benson +450 FanDuel
Willi Castro Twins +580 on Fliff
Fedde won the equivalent of the Cy Young in the KBO last year. He’s pretty good.
Yep, I knew he pitched really well where he went. I just forgot which league when I was talking about it. He was not good before he went there.
Love you bro, but where on this planet do you get texas over 4.5 for +100??
That was on DK last night around 10pm my time when I recorded the video. Lines can move quite a bit over night. I see odds, then release them right to Discord and record my video right after. It can sometimes change in the process of recording/editing. Unfortunately, I cant do much about that. Sometimes I get value and sometimes I get the opposite.
+2019 Parlay
Alonso(nym)+2bases, Atl braves ML& Sale(Atl) 6+ strikeouts, Stott(Phi)1+hit, Santana(Min) 1+hit, Bichette(Tor) Record a single, and Padres ML
GL
its cooked
Riley Greene +830 fanduel
Willie Calhoun + 750 Bet 365 at time of posting
A Gimenez +630 FD
I’ve got 2 Josh Naylor +420 Fanduel and Gunnar Henderson +440 Fanduel
You only get 1. Which one is your choice?
Ryan Mountcastle DK +700
Estevan Florial +600 HardRock
Josh Lowe +630 FanDuel
Connor Wong +600 DK
Jake Mccarthy bet 365 +1000
Luis Arraez x18.00 on FD
Riley green HR
+650 draft kings
Kyle tucker 390+ FanDuel
Gleyber Torres +700 ESPNBet
Riley Greene + 830 FD
Max Schuemann +1100 FD
Nolan Gorman +470 FD
Anthony Volpe 600 on dk
Mookie Betts +600 FanDuel
Brandon Marsh +600 DK
I agree w/ the Lively opinion but the Rangers bats are ice cold right now.
Yep, it's definitely not a "Last 5" type of bet. This is me predicting that they finally get it turned around today. We will see
Hey Steven, I watch all of your videos,both baseball and basketball, I really appreciate the effort you put in, as it is very helpful. One small suggestion, maybe on days where we get daytime baseball, do that video first?…I know basketball season is almost over, but maybe it helps next season. Just a suggestion, thanks again.
Hey, thanks for the support and suggestion. The problem I have with that is that baseball props come out later when NBA playoff props have been ready since the game prior. There isn't much to choose from for Pitcher Props etc until all MLB games are done... and even then, there is a wait. The hardest/longest part of our nights is waiting for me to research bets and waiting for props to come out. It causes us to lose a ton of sleep since that part can take a long time. It's easier to just get an NBA video out with my couple bets since I know those sooner... instead of wasting time waiting for MLB Props to finally come out. Hopefully that made sense, but I always love suggestions, so I appreciate it! I will keep it in mind if I get a day where props are out sooner....With kids, my videos sometimes get pushed back more too with dinner/bed times etc. Good luck today my man!
@@JustABetOutside makes perfect sense! Keep up the great work, please and thank you.👊🏾
@@chaunjohnson5439 Thanks man. Let's get some winners tonight! 🔥
Edmundo Sosa Phillies +750 PointsBet
Alonso +500 FD
Bo bichette +900 FanDuel
Pete Alonso +550(MGM)
Will Smith LAD +750 on DK at 4:00am
Alex Verdugo +700 DK
Jabo
Connor Joe +515 Fliff
@stephen, I guess the Rangers are due but they’ve been ass the last 5 games scoring 4,2,3,1,0…yikes!
I agree! It has been really ugly. This is definitely a bet that requires a risk. They are too good to stay down forever. Hopefully I bet the right game for that to happen.
@@JustABetOutside 🤞
Are the other picks not up yet? Seems I can never see the “pin comment” picks. Thanks for all the time and effort you put into making these videos. It’s so appreciated.
Hey man, they have been up for a while. It should be the Top comment under this video. They are also in Discord (Free), and are about to be on x. Good luck today!
Thanks I found them. I guess they weren’t up yet when I looked. Good looks on that Reese Olson prop. I tailed that and the Angels under 1.5 first 5. I had already played a very similar hit parlay so I let that one go. Good stuff. I just started following the show a little over a week ago and without a doubt find it to be one of my favorites already.
Thanks man, I appreciate that comment! I'm happy you found the channel and that you like the videos! Good luck the rest of the week. @@briangrebenz1755
Negative regression is just regression and positive regression is just progression 😂. This happens on all baseball betting videos I watch so maybe it’s a baseball thing but I guess it’s bothering me if I’m commenting 🤭
towards, or away from a mean
Regression is not only a negative term. It refers to regression to the mean, which can move it a negative or positive way. I think that both terms could be used, but I have always used Positive Regression.... meaning I expect that player or team to improve in a positive manner back to that player or team's mean (Average). I could be wrong, but that's just how I see it. In statistics, I don't believe there is such thing as progression. It's regression to the mean 1 way or the other. I dont blame people for saying Progression either though.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) +750 FD
Give me mark canha of detroit for dinger tues +560
No Naylor +475 Hard Rock
Bo Naylor or Josh Naylor?
Jose Ramirez +450 (MGM) Good luck everyone!
Seiya Suzuki (+600) DK