Russian Oil Price Cap Failing! | Russia is Losing in the Black Sea but Winning on the High Seas?
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- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
- Price Cap...What Price Cap
What's Going on With Shipping?
April 30, 2024
In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses Russia's ability to evade the Oil Price Cap by avoid traditional Insurance Clubs, new ship registries and new operating companies.
#oil #russia #pricecap
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Email: mercoglianosal@gmail.com
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A military-enforced blockade of tankers could be viewed as a direct act of war. That's probably why everyone are tiptowing around this. Can you say Escalate?
Ukraine has 2 ex RN minesweepers with 30mm based in the UK at the moment
Especially weird considering Sal did recognize it's internationally legal because the flags are not G7 and thus not beholden to said rules. They're not breaking the rules-based-order... or is that suppose to be something else? ;P
Why break an 80 year losing streak now?
U.S.A.! U.S.A.!
Escalate.
Russia's anti-ship capabilities are very limited, so they will fail to respond in kind to blockade US shipping. That leaves their nukes. Russian nukes are likely poorly maintained and I think it's safe to assume at least half won't work and of the rest, at least 3/4th will be shot down by US air defense. So despite them having bigger numbers of nukes on paper, we'll win in the end.
A blockade is an belligerent act under international law, so that will pose risk of war
It not just a risk - I can guarantee it. It will definitely not be a free or risk-free blockade. Prepare your cover!
And if a Russkie vessel tries to break through the blockade?......
Destroying Russia’s oil depots, doesn’t exactly help keep the price down, does it?
Putting a cap on Russia’s oil, is like removing an import tariff. How is that supposed to hurt Russia’s economy? Everyone will want to buy Russia’s oil more and that demand pushes the price up.
This is like saying, we’re going to damage Russia’s economy, by giving them lots of gold.
Genocide is thought to be fround on as well.... This one is right out in the open so people are alarmed at it. Needless to say Yemen is doing something about it.. Think of it as a demostration.
But Turkey already does this.
Taking action as you suggest would cause a massive spike in the cost of fuel, driving the world into a severe recession. The debt bomb would blow up and there would be riots across the world.
Thanks for accurate news we cannot get from anybody else.
Also thanks for the severe warmongering part!
@@elbuggo No doubt about that! But what else are Americans going to do? Cooperate internationally? HAHAHAHAAHAHH!!!
Yes yes, but what does "alloha" mean? 👍🏻🇬🇧
A military blockade is a significant action and in the past has been considered an act of war.
so currently Israel/Egypt, Saudi Arabia/UAE/Bahrain/Egypt, and Russia are all committing acts of war with their blockades. what consequences have they faced?
@@beepboop204 russia doesnt even block UKR grain..montreux convention is a valid treaty, look at who signed it! :)
@@simonschneider5913 what does the Montreux Convention have to do with Russia targeting civilian infrastructure like ports? and mining Ukrainian waters?
the ignorance and spread of misinformation by Russian Apologists is rather comical
@@beepboop204 so, what does NATO do in a war? like lybia, syria, iraq, afghanistan? we brought that on the world ourselves. did you forget?
and yes, the biggest offender will remain unnamed, you know why.
@@simonschneider5913 i thought Ukraine was a "special military operation" without a declaration of war? or did you forget lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooo
As someone that served in the marine Corp for 10 years I think the last time the US military didn’t pull a punch was almost 50 years ago. Powerful military that repeatedly handicaps itself.
I'm just a lowly squid but I'm pretty sure it's Marine Corps
Rumor has it we don't have the nucl arsenal necessary to engage R directly.
@@censorshipagainstthemiddle6198pls stop that nonsense argument, nuclear weapons are a guarantee "you can't invade us" period, just that and precisely that, there's not such thing like a "winner" in a nuclear war, it's mutual destruction... that's why Mr.Scott is a brainless freaking lunatic and must be thrown off from any public duty right now, he is pushing politically for the sui.cide.
Burden of the being the good guys.
We spend billions on hyper accurate kinetic kill missiles to almost eliminate collateral damage.
Our enemies use chemical weapons and dumb bombs.
When was the last war the US won?
Sanctions (Economic) and Blockades (War) are two different things. A Blockade of Russian or any country's ships is an Act of War. The generals already know that hurting Russia's economics hurts their war fighting ability and don't need an economist to tell them that. Now if our political leaders want to be more aggressive and Blockade ships, fine but then we are essentially declaring war on Russia. Nothing new in the law, just refer to 1856 Paris Declaration and 1909 London Declaration Concerning the Laws of Naval War.
Oh good, that means Russia doesn't already see itself in a war with the West. Stand down everyone. It's all good. Besides, no way the West could contend with the navies of Swaziland and Gabon at the same time. It would be a disaster of epic proportions.
The actions of sanctioning Russia’s oil & gas, actually helps Russia’s economy. Destroying Russia’s oil depots, doesn’t exactly help keep the price down, does it?
Putting a cap on Russia’s oil, is like removing an import tariff. How is that supposed to hurt Russia’s economy? Everyone will want to buy Russia’s oil more and that demand pushes the price up.
This is like saying, we’re going to damage Russia’s economy, by giving them lots of gold.
It’s all lies.
Destroying Russia’s oil depots, doesn’t exactly help keep the price down, does it?
Putting a cap on Russia’s oil, is like removing an import tariff. How is that supposed to hurt Russia’s economy? Everyone will want to buy Russia’s oil more and that demand pushes the price up.
This is like saying, we’re going to damage Russia’s economy, by giving them lots of gold.
I agree an unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen aways. Nato an Russia playing tit for tat awhile now.
@@LackofFaithifywhen talking about a blockade it's not going to be on the ports of the countries the ships are flagged in. It's either the loading point or the destination. So the blockade would be against Russia, China, or India. A blockade is highly unlikely tho not only because of the Military escalation, but also the supply shock it would cause and the massive increase in crude oil prices are politically untenable.
I went to Ft McHenry last week and visited the monument and the museum, and took pics of the Dali. Thank you for all your updates.
You are so welcome!
Thanks for the updates as always Sal, your non biased reporting sense and keeping it level across the board is always appreciated, neither big noting or blowing out of proportion what is actually on the table, and, keeping it as factual as is possible.
I agree, within reason, to many of the comments already posted that blockades of shipping carrying oil from Russian ports would be a surefire way to leading to ramifications NO ONE would like to see happen (pretty much an act of war), and that as you've mentioned, the sanctions and OPC have generally failed in their actions to slow the Russian (Putin) juggernaut and his actions within the Ukraine...I don't think there is much that would unfortunately, so such is the world in which we live nowadays.
Keep up the great work as always, it's much appreciated. Loved the collab with Ward Carroll as well, always great seeing two of the betterer channels on YT getting together to discuss what's happening....should be more of it 🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂
Youll never find a dark fleet in a black sea
😂
It is interesting the the US administration is willing to support one dictator over another, I am not a fan of Putin but he at least is well versed in the art of diplomacy. Whereas, his actor boy counterpart is just a puppet of the Biden administration.
It is like looking for Donbass in a map of Ukraine!
"You're not allowed in this club". - "OK" :P
eggs actleee. so therefore they have made their own parallel clubs now known as this dark fleet or grey fleet or whatever. And they could care less about socalled price caps. And yah it’s a bit unfortunate that the price cap bluff got called and that the ruskies won on calling the bluff. Because they are proving that nobody cares to enforce against the counterbluff or, whatever the dark fleet is doing.
Thanks for the update Sal
So if one of these vessels has an accident in a port and spills a huge amount of crude, no one will clean it up.
Wow. And scary.
Ghost fleet Sal ghost fleet.
Blockading as I understand is an act of war. Are we ready for that step?
they are under foreign flags. i dont think Gabon will declare war on the US over this xD
@@iliaalekov2949 Sure, the Houthi's have nothing to worry about if they only sink Liberian-registered ships, right? What's Liberia going to do?
@@gandydancer9710 what did the americans do? spent some muney, lost a few marines(tragicaly) and left..
what can russia do? drop "the" bomb? this bluff is geting old
so currently Israel/Egypt, Saudi Arabia/UAE/Bahrain/Egypt, and Russia are all committing acts of war with their blockades. what consequences have they faced?
@@beepboop204 Except for Israel and Egypt, I am not familiar with any blockades being imposed by the other countries you listed. Since you have posted the same comment before, maybe you could explain what it refers to.
Isn't a naval blockade an act of war?
shhh you're not supposed to mention the obvious. War is peace and peace is war
Invading a neighbor is an act of war
I doubt Russia would declare war based on that. They'd be suicidal to do so.
"act of war" is a greatly overused term and greatly oversimplifies things. not all "acts of war" are the same.
@@zachansen8293 Casus belli is casus belli, according to the "rule based order".
That line of questioning towards the admiral (or general? I forgot) was really unfair. He should have answered with something along the lines of "no, we don't have the authority to enforce the sanctions and price cap with military action, since the Congress hasn't granted us such authority." Civil supremacy means the military can't act if the civilian government and legislature above it aren't prepared to take the risks.
General should have answer: "Mr. Scott you know your questions are not directed to me, clearly I'm not the one who decides all this so stop using my time to run your show for others...just say straight what you want to say, no more silly questions" and twist the mic towards him.
He's letting the little politician have his moment of puffery, knowing it will soon pass.
wasn't unfair at all. Ssott put some correct heat on Gen. Brown. It wasn't unfair. JCS is essentially poltical and the US has polices that have caused a rise in oil orices that have obliterates any effect of sanctions. It is current administration policies that have on balance given Putin more profit form oil than he has lost from all the sanctions
@@AtomicBuffalo He is asking a very sober question. Why do you think Sal is in effect asking the same question?
@@CantonBn A naval blockade is escalation to direct war with Russia. That ain't sober, that's reckless. But better to let it slide than call more attention to it.
How to shoot your own foot. Legality is in the eye of the beholder. The "rule based order" is not legality..
Yeah, we’re not getting to WWIII fast enough; let’s get some economists to drive the military strategy.
AGAIN I MUST ASK
so currently Israel/Egypt, Saudi Arabia/UAE/Bahrain/Egypt, and Russia are all committing acts of war with their blockades. what consequences have they faced?
This is by far my favorite channel, thank you for the great info and insight and served with a smiling face and humor.
Wow, thank you!
@@wgowshippingEnjoy your work. However do really hope you understand that a maritime blockade is a unilateral & defacto decleration of WAR under jus cogens. 😊
@@kevinyaucheekin1319I am not advocating for that. I merely highlighted that the US military is not looking at or preparing to enforce sanctions against the Dark Fleet. This may be a course of action they could examine if the conflict escalates further.
Sal continue your great work
Mr. Scott: “Do you have the necessary authority to take action against the shadow fleet of vessels illegally transporting Russian oil and funding Vladimir Putin’s war?” General Brown’s response should have been: “No, Congress hasn’t given me and my subordinates the authority.”
Maybe he was given the authority to do this and he was smart enough to say F%$# that shit!
@@Penpalinflorida that is possible but there is no evidence that Congress, who has the authority did. If he did say “F%$# that shit” to Congress he would have been removed and not testifying.
@@echosixbravo8128 That is also possible. But, I hearken back to Donald Trump ordering the withdrawal of troops from Syria and Afghanistan and the military ignoring the order. They admitted this later on and also admitting lying to him about troop concentrations in Syria. Seems to me if they can ignore an order that will save the lives of its soldiers, they sure can ignore an order that will certainly get a lot of them killed and make the US look weak.
You‘re calling for the US/EU to commit an act of war against Russia, a blockade or closure of shipping lanes is an act of war. Under international law the only body that can institute sanctions enforceable with force is the UN Security Counsel. You need to ask yourself is this worth risking a war. Also what counter actions may happen and being prepared to cope with them. For example many countries are withdrawing their funds from US banks due to the possible seizure or Russian assets passed by Congress. What impact will this have on our banking system? What if OPEC which is totally against the price cap decides to act against these enforcement actions? With our reserves at record lows are we prepared?
ummm.... NOPE.
UN Security *Council*
"Counsel" = advice
We are already at war. It’s been about 2 years now.
Look they sold uranium to Putin at the same time they claimed he's interfering with elections. Think about that. They're liars.
@@manifold1476
Council = "an executive body whose members are equal in power and authority"
Well done as usual Sal.
This politician is playing gotcha, asking questions that are outside of the General's scope.
A blockade would be an act of war.
As Congress declares war in the US, maybe the question should be about the Congressman's position on declaring war on Russia.
Current policy is to avoid escalating Russia's war on Ukraine.
The black fleet exists not because russia has oil to sell but because people will buy their oil.
To reduce Russia's oil sales we need to reduce demand.
The politician is speaking for the military industrial complex. They make congressmen millionaires at the taxpayer expense.
Yeah, the questions sounded really unfair to me. I think the general should have responded with something along the lines of "no, we don't have the authority to enforce the sanctions and price cap with military action, since the Congress hasn't granted us such authority."
Open our taps, allow oil production at previous levels under cut Russian oil prices, reduces demand for their products, blockading is an escalation that Russia is looking for, send Greta packing and lets get back yo work
Russia's war on Ukraine? Nah, t'other way round. Zelensky declared war on Russia first.
@@scallopohare9431 lol
The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers...
Funny how dark fleet referred to ships carrying oil for countries sanctioned by the US. Soon it will refer to ships that try to go through Bab al-Mandab without getting noticed or targeted by turning off their AIS.
I provided the Lloyd's definition for the Gray Fleet.
@@wgowshipping Why do you think that terminology is appropriate? Do you think it is illegal to simply not operate in anyway in the West so you are not subject to their laws.
Thank you Professor Mercogliano for another great lesson on the current world.
Thank you for the update
it reminds me of star wars. the rebellion against the empire. on a serious note, I feel for the families of the people on the first aircraft carrier that approaches russian land
They won't get too far out of port, never mind approaching Russia. The Zircons will fly from Russian subs and frigates and they will be sunk. The new version of Zircon is said to have a 1000 mile range, well outside of the carrier battle group security fence. At least the rescue efforts will be easier due to being close to the US mainland.
Almost the entire world is HAPPY that the price cap has failed.
Most of Europe isn't though. Seeing a future where Ru is a force of consequence is going to be expensive too, for Europe and the US. Even worse if they are successful in breaking up NATO. :/
@@JarlerusSo far, they mostly seem to be successful at expanding NATO.
@CptJistuce sure.. But their long term plans are to break it up. There are some good analysis' out there on how they will most likely challenge NATO by their very elaborate and extensive knowledge of hymybrid warfare. Don't be complacent. Remember what they've done to Georgia and Ukraine over the years.
Oh, so you think China is happy about paying more for oil? Japan? S. Korea? India? Etc.?
@@SpringIsBACK I am betting that he does, and also betting it is because he is very pro-Russia.
There seem to be only two stances anyone wants to take, and they are "it is Ukraine and Russia's problem, everyone else should ignore it" or "We should mobilize NATO and send in ALL THE TROOPS"
Between the two, I am shocked at how many people want to appease Stalin Jr.
Thank you for your work on keeping us informed on these matters!!
Thank you for sharing this information. I didn’t know this. 👍🏻
No matter what they say, the US and NAT/EU states continue to buy Russian oil/gas products. If they ever managed to enforce complete sanctions on Russian products, the world-wide price would shoot up.
Well of course they are seeing as it’s cheaper.
Destroying Russia’s oil depots, doesn’t exactly help keep the price down, does it?
Putting a cap on Russia’s oil, is like removing an import tariff. How is that supposed to hurt Russia’s economy? Everyone will want to buy Russia’s oil more and that demand pushes the price up.
This is like saying, we’re going to damage Russia’s economy, by giving them lots of gold.
It’s all lies.
Destroying Russia’s oil depots, doesn’t exactly help keep the price down, does it?
Putting a cap on Russia’s oil, is like removing an import tariff. How is that supposed to hurt Russia’s economy? Everyone will want to buy Russia’s oil more and that demand pushes the price up.
This is like saying, we’re going to damage Russia’s economy, by giving them lots of gold.
Since when did the G7 become the overlords of the entire world? Since when do we all have to go to war because the world's self appointed overlords failed to successfully apply one of their policies? How do you expect countries like India, China and almost all of Africa that have memories of brutal colonization to accept a new era of colonial order and follow the orders of seven particular countries? What is the legal, moral, political and and even financial basis of that?
Cheers for the Jake Broe style thumbnail and post title!
I dig it, and you're basically correct as far as I can tell. Keep up the good work/vids/etc!
The problem which might arise, if the U.S established a naval blockade of Vladivostok, would be a direct confrontation between the U.S. Navy and the Russian Navy.
That is a step which has the potential to become a shooting war between two great
powers. Not something to take lightly.
Vladivostok is the Pacific fleet home base of the Russian Navy.
That’s funny, i never realized we were at war with Russia. Some real bellicose language in this one. Interesting.
It failed because it's stupid. For sanctions to work you need as many countries on board with it as possible.
There's nearly 200 countries in the world. The idea that everyone would willing make their own citizens suffer for some irrelevant war in eastern europe is moronic.
Notice how the people who implement the idiocy never face repercussions?
@@benjamindover4337 Notice how some people believe that the reformation of the USSR is irrelevant?
@@UncleKennysPlace did you forget to take your meds today?
Sal ..nice fellow .. Has forgot , this is not a New York Court room , where you split issues with paper and make any issue sound reasonable ... i am cutting all your supplies ..50-% Red sea .. Panama , New terrorist group out of Egypt [ one job sink ships Suez ] WORSE .. ALL EU ports , ALL !! EU under ground NAT gas tanks blown in Ukraine blown no food , no gas [ Odessa is a master piece ] .. sooooooooooooooooooo Losing in the Black Sea ? hummmmmm interesting
@@UncleKennysPlace 31 years too late for that comment
A superb report. Thanks.
Sam, I wanted reach out to you. I enjoy your channel as an old navy brat. I grew up on 32nd street at a NSSD in the the 60's. my dad was a chief snipe and endured Ww2, Kore and Viet Nam. The Navy tasked him to be Chief Engineer on a CVA. He said, 'He'll no" and resigned his commision..
Sorry about the typos.
The Cup is full and the world needs the Black Gold. Telling someone that they are "not" allowed to buy it is funny. China/India and the Global South are 7+ Billion people and their Governments need it (oil)🛢.
Supply and demand. IMO of course!
Thanks Sal!
Peace from the Great 🍁White 🍁North!
Yeah but the guy with the guns gets a vote on the market too.
7 billion people?! We've become an infestation in our habitat. I know there's even more people if you include those that you other. That's nuts. What do you think will happen if this trend continues? If that's the case, then yeah, you can't let the Russian wells freeze, or many people will suffer. But that oil burning will also cause great suffering. People will be fighting for drinkable water, and cool enough places to live. At least the South has Antarctica.
@@GizzyDillespee Being First Nation (Mi'kmaq), I'm quite aware what happens. “Only when the last tree has died and the last river been poisoned and the last fish been caught will we realize we cannot eat money.”
Sadly I agree with you but this is not the place for that conversation.
We still have to fix our people (both FN and Canada's poor) here and that is what I'm trying to do with my book/Idea's and TM's. We have the North but for how long (USA/China eyeing it)? We have HUGE tracks of land with nobody on it and possession IS 9/10th the law. Peace!
@@Mountain-Man-3000 not if those holding the guns are hunger because of no oil to grow food
@@grizzz6884 America has become a tiny nation in a larger 21st century world.
The US is very shortsighted.
Very informative. Thanks!
This is very good. Thank you.
Sal you were good again on Ward's CZcams Channel with regards the Houthis and the US Navy pulling out the Dwight D. Eisenhower Aircraft Carrier out of the Red Sea and moving it to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea instead.
It's always amusing when I see someone suggest the military should 'enforce sanctions' or 'punch back' without also explaining what the retaliation would be and what would be the end result of playing the escalation game with a nuclear power. There's a reason why the US military doesn't do it, but nobody seems to ask for that reason. It's so obvious. 🤣😂
I am not suggesting that at all. I merely showed the discussion between Congressman Scott and General Brown and how the latter said they were not planning on enforcing sanctions. I then said it would not be inappropriate for the military to have contingency planning to accomplish this in case of an escalation in the conflict.
Great class. Learned a lot. Thank you
Thanks for another clear video 👍👍👍
Sal, you seem to be on the side of military intervention in cases of ships using alternative means to transport Russian crude. Would this not be a significant escalation of Western involvement in the ongoing war?
Forget escalations, this would undo 70 years of peaceful open navigation of the high seas.
It's a complete paradigm shift. The era of the right of transit would end.
No. General Brown said that the US military was not prepared to enforce sanctions against the Dark Fleet. I stated that it would be smart for the military to plan for such a contingency as it is a short of war method and a levee that could be pulled should Russia escalate the conflict.
@@wgowshippingIt would be an act of war.
@@scallopohare9431did you not just read Sal’s reply to the person? He said that the Navy should either enforce sanctions, which are NOT an act of war, or plan for contingencies if they do not enforce. And, they are not enforcing the sanctions. Sal did not actually promote a blockade. goodness gracious.
@@nozrep Be ridiculous. Why bring the Navy into it, if it's simply a matter of enforcing economic sanctions?
Russia moved its economic trading attention away from Europe (500 million people) over to Asia and Africa (over 3 billion people).
Thanks!
Kind of reminds me of that recent congressional hearing with the president of Columbia U.. Her response to every question about enforcement actions the school has taken against specific egrigious rules violations was basically, "Oh yes, we talked to those individuals and told them that their actions make some people uncomfortable."
One thing not mentioned in this conversation is that the USA's prestige in the Global South is at an all time low and sinking. Rep Scotts's assertion that the US military should be enforcing sanctions is negligent in the extreme. Almost the entirety of the Sahel has abandoned the USA and the West. Kicked out US and EU troops and Russian troops are now coming in. Additionally, many smaller nations in Asia are moving in the same direction. In the UN vote to require Russia to leave Ukraine, 32 countries abstained and 7 voted against it. Many countries that did vote in favor were simple rubber stamps with no conviction.
The Biden admin, the UK, EU and NATO are playing a very dangerous game.
Truth
This is what happens when we have a weak president. Biden has pi$$ed away American power and influence and we will pay a dear price for his sell out to China, Iran, and Russia.
a game ,which is doing a scorched earth on the poor while the rich buy every thing cheep
the Sahel in Africa? nobody cares at all if countries in the Sahel region of Africa support US. They’re poor African dictatorships anyways?There must be another sahel that I am uneducated about, probably?
I guess we can start with people in political parties that support Russia by voting against aid to Ukraine. I’m sure if the Biden admin starts blocking Russian ports or seizing Russian or other ships the republicans will start screaming that Biden is trying to start WW3. We will be doing the same thing that we criticize Iran and other organizations for doing.
Problem is that"s a blockade. A blockade is an act of war.
So is invading another country.
@@raitchison For the country invaded, and those with treaty obligations with them.
@@raitchison Azerbaijan recently invaded Armenia. Nobody cared. Why not? Invading another country isn't such a big deal? If it was, why didn't anyone say anything when Azerbaijan invaded Armenia a few months ago? I bet you TV viewers haven't even heard about it. How about a blockade of Azerbaijan as well?
@@elbuggo Except that's not what happened AT ALL. Azerbaijani forces launched an offensive into disputed territory, that was internationally recognized as being part of Azerbaijan.
As opposed to the situation in Ukraine where Russia invaded, occupied, and illegally annexed territory that was internationally recognized (even by Russia) as being part of Ukraine.
What Russia is doing in Ukraine is no different than what Nazi Germany did to Poland, France or the Netherlands in the late 1930s and early 1940s.
@@Cybrludite Which is of course why Putin moved to invade Ukraine before they joined NATO.
Ukraine was never a threat to Russia either inside or out of NATO. Ukraine in NATO was however a threat to Putin's territorial ambitions.
Putin was counting on ineffective leadership in Ukraine and a weak response from the West, as was the case when he invaded and occupied Crimea.
Thank you for the explanation and analysis, informative and thought provoking.
Thank you Sal
What international legal right does USA have in stopping/seizing a ship in international waters, flying a flag it doesn't control, insured by an insurer it doesn't control, moving from/to countries that do not share the USA's opinion on USA sanctions? Wouldn't actions done by USA Navy, to stop these ships, be consider an act war?
Do you think the countries involved using these "dark fleet" ships call them "The dark fleet"? Perhaps a better description is the BRICS fleet, since they are disconnected from USA control.
Dislike the us Navy and other western navies that make the seas safe for shipping? Cool. Good luck dealing with pirates on your own then champ.
International law isn't something The Great Empire actually cares about. Those military bases everywhere around the world aren't just for show. Gunboat diplomacy needs gunboats to work...
Don't you know? It is rooted in the principle _The Yankees Own the World - they own it!_
RE: Wouldn't actions done by USA Navy, to stop these ships, be consider an act war?
Well, we are always the good guys. And we write our own history books, so it will all be good and well in the end!
@@elbuggo so let Ukraine do it they are already at war
We have compartmentalized ourselves into ineptitude
Great analysis
Thanks
As a truck driver who is now paying $2500 for diesel every week, compared to just $1500 three years ago, I must say, we are literally shooting our country in the leg, and some of you are asking for more?
Btw shipping rates are lower than 3 years ago.
These DC loser are disconnected from what is going on in the real world. Their pockets are stuffed by lobbists.
Sal is a disgrace! If Vlad is ACTUALLY sanctioned, the war would be over. And who would program Lockheeds new battle management system? 😂❤
Russia shot you in the leg when they decided that they didn't like the world order and wanted to flip the table. Iran shoots you in the leg when they fund the psycho houthi to attack shipping just to disrupt global shipping to hurt America. Despite what you may think America isn't all powerful and it just takes a few arseholes around the globe to screw things up for us.
gas prices shouldn't determine global policy. in fact gas prices should be higher. MUCH higher because of the actual cost of carbon emissions.
When they become available, you should buy a Tesla Truck, you will pay off the entire truck in 3-5 years, just with the savings of not using diesel! I bit the bullet and bought a Tesla Model Y 6 months ago. When I charge at home with Super Off Peak rates, I save 95% in costs for the same miles as I would have travelled in my previous SUV. Plus no oil/air filter changes, no transmission services, no timing chain service costs etc, etc. An EV truck will dramatically cut your operating costs. They just need to become available with the corresponding 1MW charging network sufficient to make it viable for interstate trucking. It's all coming, a lot sooner than the commercial trucking industry thinks!
A couple of points this video completely overlooked:
Russia shipping more crude isn't necessary a bad thing, as they are losing the value add of refining it themselves - which is a pretty big deal.
There's no way to unite the entire world on a price cap so supply and demand will have it's way = to an extent. Sanctions (and logistics and oil quality) have Brent crude at 87.86 and Urals at 75.32 right now.
Whatever we can do to increase that spread is great, I'm not sure we're about to kinetically stop tankers at this point - that seemed more like a partisan shot at the admin than anything realistic.
Are you under the impression that Russian refining capacity is not being fully utilized?
@@gandydancer9710 yes, Russia doesn't tend to prohibit refined product exports unless they need to. And Russia has banned refined oil exports for like half a year by now, Ivan.
Thanks again so love your channel sir🤙😎
Great episode
Ya gotta love Sal’s Russian accent.👏😅
Mr. Scott is a windbag. If he wants something done about the Shadow Fleet, he can get out of his chair and fly over there. Give 'em the ol' one-two, Scott.
Hi Sal,
This comment is about fire protection on ships. Based on the Bonham Richard fire it seems like our navy ships and ro ro car carriers should have a fire control room with fire detection input and controls for remote actuation of fire suppression systems (sprinklers). The fact that the Bonham Richard had many hydrants means that from the original design the ship would rely on personnel to manually extinguish a fire. Apparently the BR relied on personnel to detect a fire. That would mean that fire detection on the BR was inadequate any time the ship was not fully staffed. Or without a fire watch in each compartment. It seems like the navy and commercial ro ro ships should upgrade fire detection and suppression systems. In contrast the cruise ships have much better fire detection and suppression systems. Is it likely that if ro ro and navy ships had detection and suppression systems similar to cruise ships ship losses due to fire would be practically eliminated? John
The G7 don't dictate to the world. The market will decide price not some clowns in govt.
You keep on believing that.
If G7 operates, it's legitimate. If rest of the world does the same, it's shadow fleet. If G7 burns coal, it's progress, if the rest of the world does for basic things, it's global warming.
magical markets, clearly not emotional irrational things, clearly magical logical and rational things
@@seafighter4isn't that why is essentially happening. G7 set what price ..but others are doing whatever they want...or at least bigger countries.
Mess with the black gold and the sky will fall on you. G7 needs Russian fuel even if they have to buy it from Indian refineries at inflated prices. We citizens pay more and our masters make fortunes.
*Your masters
@@Atmatan_Kabbaherq 11:40
@@grdnzrnic Never underestimate how little you know about the people you communicate with online.
I'm ex air Force veteran and currently a merchant mariner so glad I'm home 😂
India is, however, cutting back on Russian oil imports. We'll have to see if that trend continues...
Can’t believe my hometown of Reston was mentioned!
Thanks😊
Stupid is a bad habit.
“Rules based order” 😂😂😂
Drools Based Odor.
One more thing that is not mentioned here. Price cap is only for seaborne oil. At least 2 million b/d is delivered via pipelines and are not sanctioned. Second thing is , according to Bloomberg's latest data, only 16% of Russian oil is insured by Western insurers.
The US broadcast weakness beginning Jan 20, 2021, after 4 years of projecting strength, which had resulted in relative peace in the world. Since then, 3 major wars and many lesser conflicts have started, and China-Taiwan pending. The ultimate Pottery Barn situation.
Should 7 countries be able to control all of the other countries in the world????
No, and they really don't.
This lack of power us now exposed. A Suez Moment.
Correction: a country and its 6 satellite states
14:11
Get with it chap! The U.S. spent 7 years training a crack NATO compatible Ukrainian Army on behalf of a Nazi/neo-Nazi government. During this period 14,000 people died in the two eastern successioned states and 52,000 were injured. Concrete for fortifications was ceaselessly poured over the same period. On 23rd February 2022 the whole caboodle took up positions on the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk and the Russian people who have lived there for over a thousand years faced certain annihilation starting from the 24th onwards - that is if the US cavalry (Putin) had not arrived to defend them..
Mark, have you been eating mushrooms out of the Kremlin? Neither Ukraine nor Russia are nazi. Both Zelensky and Putin either are jewish or have jewish family members. Most of the oligarchs in power in both countries also have strong jewish ties. You just mask your anti-semitism with an anti-german sentiment. Not everyone who is evil is german.
Russian people have not lived in Ukraine for thousands of years either. Look up the Golden Horde, that is the people both Russians and Ukrainians genocided. There were also the Germanic goths in Ukraine before the slavic people arrived.
15:49
The U.S. needs to bring back its lost art of diplomacy and to start having meaningful conversations across the world with regard to mutual friendship and economic development. Beyond that surface navies are all but obsolete now - so vulnerable to missile attack have every kind of ship become.
I like your sense of humor to punctuate all this breaking info you provide
The Russians aren't the Houthis. Using the Navy to blockade Russian shipping sounds like a great way to attract anti-ship missiles with an actual guidance system.
Have in mind, there are only 2 kinds of ships; submarines, and targets.
@@elbuggo mostly accurate, but it's important to keep in mind that submarines are also targets.
Well, I don't have time to read ALL the comments, but, I read some, and y'all are missing something: Russia's REVENUE from crude oil exports is down considerably. Refined products are really in the tank. (Pun intended.) This in spite of prices well over the caps. (Keep in mind the spread between Brent Crude and Urals Crude is presently quite high too.)
The reason(s) for this revenue loss are not all clear, as Russia is rather, ah, murky about the details. However, we do know the US has finally been getting tougher about secondary sanctions, and India and China have recently cut back crude purchases from Russia. When it comes to China this reduction in volume is just about matched by the price increases, and the volume reduction may simply be weak demand - hard to say. India however has cut back on Russian crude very sharply, much more than an economic slowdown would suggest. Russia itself reports less crude shipped, and has actually blocked exports of refined products at times. How much of this is due to maintenance problems, and how much especially of the drops in refined products exports are due to Ukrainian attacks is "interesting" to try to ferret out: It appears to be quite a bit of both...
Now it is true that Biden has missed a golden (Jed's Black Gold) opportunity here: With a really determined / wartime priority program to ramp up oil and gas production and transport, in cooperation with Canada and Mexico, and any other allies willing to jump in, put in place the minute it became evident Pooty intended to invade Ukraine, the US and its allies could have simply cut the legs right out from under Russia. Even just being non-obstructionist to the response to demand would have helped quite a bit. This would have benefitted the entire "West" and allies like Japan and S. Korea hugely, and would have been a bonanza for the US and allied suppliers. The environmental consequences likely would be no worse than what we have happening now and / or seem likely in the future: Does anyone believe the "dark fleet" is following emissions rules when at sea? Safety rules? How about Russian oil extractors / producers?
Instead the US has only bumped production modestly, more in spite of Biden than because of him. Bah!!
Your the best ❤
that doesnt make sense if they are exporting it like crazy wouldnt the price drop?
Oh! The hypocrisy...
Every nation is a hypocrite.
There are a few modestly clever options. One is privateering, just declare piracy of Russian oil a non-crime and set a price cap on the privateered oil at say $40/bbl. That is enough price to encourage the privateers while being 20% below the normal-trade price cap so there is some incentive to do trade above the table at the $50 mark.
Another option is a blockade of ships, but not specifically Russian ports, just those specific flags of convienience that are being used to go around the sanctions and price caps. So on paper it is not an overt blockade against Russia, but I'm no naval treaty lawyer so I won't try to work through the details of how that would go.
Question: / US Strategic Oil reserve
Sal you commented that during the Supply chain crisis and COVID-19 oil Storage became a problem.
Did the US take the opportunity to replenish the US strategic oil reserve?
US Strategic Oil reserve is near empty as Biden keeps draining it .
Trump was working on it. Congress stop it from happening.
That would require intelligent leadership.
As an American, I cannot support my own government, sorry no, and I am a veteran. 😢
no one hates America more than Americans
Super interesting info
Awesome helpful educational
Unfortunately the G7 Nations are yet to realise their power and sphere of influence has been degrading and is now severely weakened. I would not like to see a ship of the dark fleet carrying Russian crude be intercepted of prevented from reaching its destination. A concept the US, EU and in general Western World current governments do not understand, and fail to appreciate is action and reaction, and action and consequences. The action of an interception could have grave consequences, militarily, financially and in general impact the quality of life enjoyed by the G7 Nations and their populations. Our leaders need to tread carefully and look for alternate solutions.
so instead of fighting against oppression let me guess, we should become oppressive ourselves?
"Shifty Shades of Grey" oh for God's sake 😂
Great video as usual. You do a great Gorbachev impersonation too!
Logistics, logistics, logistics!!! Wars may be fought by Infantry, Armor, Air and Sea warfighters, but wars are won through the strategic application and delivery of logistics. If you cut off the opposition's logistics chain, your combat forces will defeat them on the battlefield.
If you kick Russia out of the Black Sea, what you get is more Turkish beligerence. Is that what you want? FINE, all I am saying, is that Russia plays a valuable role as a check against Eastern opportunism, which is ever-present, while Russia has always been a collaborative partner on Western security. Maybe everyone should read a few textbooks? It's an idea...
RUSSIA HAS ALWAYS BEEN A COLLABORATIVE PARTNER ON WESTERN SECURITY? lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
😁😁After 16000+sanctions imposed on Russia Putin found ways to keep Russia economy stronger by diverting its export commodities to global south where they are needed👏🙏👍
Thanks Shirted Sal.
Yea I thought it was strange the congressman asking the Airforse about Navy stuff🤷♀️
Be interesting to see what happens when an accident happens, and these popup insurance companies are suddenly on the hook for billions of dollars.
Already happened. Check out video on Pablo. czcams.com/video/wrkaCttQ7OE/video.htmlsi=EAShPyVm4Wc4vs2v
@@wgowshipping Sal wants War with Russia over Money???
YANKEE GO HOME !!!!!!!!!!!! FOOL.
The fact that Russia is having to export oil and then pay more to import the refined products, fuels, that they have lost production capacity of is still curbing Russian profits from oil sales.
Not greatly
@@yuglesstube perhaps, but every bit helps. Russia, like Iran and North Korea will get around sanctions but they can't get around their crumbling ability to produce essential things themselves.
@Texas240 They are doing fine. China is being very helpful in certain domains, as mentioned by Blinken. The Global South is on board too.
The Russian military industrial complex is highly capable and efficient.
Taking on a Nation masquerading as a gas station has its perils, clearly.
When we hurt them, the pain is transmitted back to us.
Indeed, the persistent inflation and high interest rate regime we now suffer has much to do with our attempting to expand NATO, and the consequences that have come from that.
We seriously underestimated Russia.
Last night another russian refinery got hit and caught on fire. At the current rate, russia won't have any refineries left, leaving them solely reliant on other countries for refined products. With how China and India are already squeezing russia by paying as little as possible for the oil they purchase, I can see russia losing money on their oil business after imports...
@@MayaPosch it's challenging, certainly, but compared with Ukraine's challenges, including burning through 7 billion dollars a month and vast casualties, it's not a fair fight at all.
The Ukranians are gallant and extremely resilient, but they have hit hard limits. The costs to Russia are bearable for quite some time.
good for me and myself in the long run if oil prices boom again. So that they can bust again. I am ready for it. I was in Midland TX during the 2014-2015 bust and while people losing there jobs is never fun, gasoline prices crashing to below 2 a gallon was freaking awesome. And I say that as someone who was a low level banker helping to make loans to a lot of those guys drilling for oil too. It’s a tough spot, mentally. But also I like low gas prices better.