Updated 2024 House Map Prediction (June 16, 2024)
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- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
- An updated look at the 2024 US House Elections, with a prediction approximately four and a half months before Election Day.
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#2024Election #HousePrediction
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Stop Republican gerrymandering; from a constitutional standpoint, this was not wrong decision .
I just hate that the house is this close.
I want like a 50 seat majority in the house and for democrats to struggle to win ANYTHING.
Who is voting for FJB? Amazing to see anyone would VOTE DEM, and WHY????
Never gonna happen, always lemmings that drink the fearmongering kool-aid and think Trump is Hitler 2.0.
Everything is always suspiciously close.
If Trump wins, and the Republicans win both the house and the senate , they have to work to make Americans life's better , it can't be status quo , then and maybe then we will see that big lead in the house .
This one due to Republicans fault I think the Kevin McCarthy removing which was stupid politically. If Republicans just held out till 2024, but no MJG and Matt Gaetz
Yes. A ninety percent chance we retake the Senate. I remember 2022. We need to make sure we can get honest elections.
I would say a better than 90% chance of retaking the Senate. This year's map is ridiculously easy for Republicans.
The last time these Senate seats were up was in 2018. Even in a blue-wave year, we made a net gain of two, by flipping four red states against losing two purple ones.
None of the four seats we took in 2018 are in any jeopardy this time. Democrats made some noise earlier about trying to take back the seat in Florida, but they seem to have given up on that, and they never even pretended to have a chance in Missouri, Indiana, or North Dakota. But both of the seats Democrats took from us in 2018 (Arizona and Nevada) are Republican pickup opportunities this time, along with Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and surprisingly even Maryland, along with the guaranteed pickup in West Virginia which Democrats are no longer even pretending that they might be able to keep.
The map is even more favorable for Republicans than it was in 2018, when we managed a net gain of two seats in a blue-wave year, and we only need two more seats this year for the majority, with West Virginia counting as one of those two, and it does not look like this will be another blue-wave year. And on top of that, we might not even need two seats, as winning West Virginia and the presidency would be enough.
We don't just need to expand our lead in the House. We need to expland it with America 1st Republicans.
We need to primary all RINOs in safe and likely R districts
Don’t underestimate the ballot printers going brrrrr again
As if the same people who came up with 4 fake trials are going to just give up.
Never underestimate the gop's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Go vote early.
That's their job. 90% of Republicans are just Democrats with a mask on.
The Senate appoints the Supreme Court justices so if I HAD to choose, I would prefer a GOP Senate.
And other judges and cabinate appointments.
GOP 2024
If you love and support America VOTE TRUMP
Felonald45 for Prison 20 /4 Years 🇺🇸 There I fixed it for You 😂
@@murrayheaney9020 TRUMP 2024
**Incited a Failed Insurrection @@MMAandBoxingEnjoyer
@@murrayheaney9020 Bro dont even try it, anyone with a ounce of reasoning knows the ruling was skewed. Jury decision got changed from being 'unanimous' to 'pick the crime' at the last second. The jury zone was a democrat zone, the case was even set stone cold already but was cooked up again and amped up. Daniels and 'The Fixer' were caught lying and actually stealing from Trump. The judge screamed at a witness and kicked them out, his daughter was fundraising off the case.. smh i don't think i need to go if you actually paid attention because this case was bigger than you realize.
TL;DR dont matter, this naturalized citizen is voting for Trump 🤘MAGA
@@murrayheaney9020wow did you think of that one all by yourself. Damn that was bad 😂
Had the GOP done well in 2022 the number of senate seats we could have now ...
Trump 2024
Vote Trump no matter what or who.
Tr45tor for Prison 20 24 Years 😅 There I fixed it for You 😅
Biden 2024 for imprisoning his political opponents!
@@murrayheaney9020 Black man here, proudly voting for Trump.
So you’re Good with Voting for a Rascist Rapist okay 👌 then it’s fine if you don’t have Morals or Integrity 😢@@MMAandBoxingEnjoyer
@@MMAandBoxingEnjoyerthank you for seeing through the bullshit. I wish more Americans could.
God bless America! God bless President Donald J Trump Amen.
I’m from Toledo Ohio. Everybody loves Marcy Kaptur. She’s been in congress since I was in high school. No one ever defeats her.
I hope Republicans, Keep The House, but either way I think whoever ends up controlling The House will have a very small majority regardless.
I'm surprised to see so many people still trust these predictions after 2022 and 2020
Texas needs to improve voter turnout with Hispanics.
We definitely need that house. Otherwise, they'll just spend four years impeaching him again.
Yep, a fake Russia dossier, fake Mueller Report, two fake impeachments, four fake trials (at least, I can't keep track)... I'm assuming their pipeline of fake schiatt is backed up with 20 more years of nonsense, all ready to go.
We need the “trifecta” to get anything done when Trump wins.
I'm afraid we're going to experience terror attacks this summer. I hope I'm wrong. But I think it would help Trump.
We will see . Red Eagle said the same thing in 22 , and that did not turn out the way he predicted , so don't get comfortable Vote Vote Vote .
That's because he looked at the GOP polling numbers at it's peak and then ignored the temporary fall in support, which the GOP somewhat recovered, but that was enough only to win the house narrowly and flip Nevada governor
The 2024 house will be way closer than what he’s predicting here
@@kbkilla360 … it already close no matter how you slice it. Now - it’s possible the wave Trump seems to be on (right now…) could garner the GOP 15-25 seats… but the republicans often snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, because there are two parties, one is evil and the other is stupid - guess which is which? The main reason elections are close is because of mass immigration and birthright citizenship. That being said, the border will remain *relatively* open until the laws are enforced - and only Trump has had the testicular fortitude to attempt to enforce it - and the reasons it’s being left open- 1) primarily to implement a one-party (leftist..) state in the near future and 2) cheap labor for the (Wall Street, Chamber of Commerce…) donor class.
Tucker Carlson did a great video on this topic on PragerU a few years ago, and it’s 🎯 100%.
CA-13 John Duarte hangs on. I did the math for all of the California districts and their shift from the primary to general election in 2022. Based on the math I did, this is what the general election margins for each competitive California district will look like.
CA-9: Josh Harder: 54.4%
CA-13: John Duarte: 53.3%
CA-22: David Valadao: 51.4%
CA-26: Julia Brownley: 55.7%
CA-27: Mike Garcia: 57.7%
CA-40: Young Kim: 54.1%
CA-41: Ken Calvert: 52.5%
CA-45: Michelle Steel: 50.5%
CA-47: Scott Baugh: 51.1%
CA-49: Mike Levin: 52.2%
My prediction for the Battleground California House races as of now:
CA-3 Somewhere between Lean to Likely R [I think Kevin Kiley wins by a touchdown or 7-8 points]
CA-9 Likely D (Josh Harder wins by about 10 points)
CA-13 Tossup (I think Duarte can pull it off again or he wins by less than 2 points. I think he is David Valadao 2.0.)
CA-22 Tossup (I think David Valadao barely pulls it off again. 50.1%-49.9%)
CA-27: Tilt R (Mike Garcia wins by somewhere between two to four points)
CA-40: Likely R (Young Kim wins by 8-9 points)
CA-41: Tossup (I think Ken Calvert will win in a squeaker or by 1-2 points or somewhere between 50.5-51% to Will Rollins 49.5%-49%. His opponent Will Rollins outraised him and Ken Calvert is probably past his prime.)
CA-45 Tossup (I think Michelle Steel wins in a squeaker or by 1-2 points)
CA-47 Tossup to Tilt D (I think the Democrat wins by 1-3 points)
CA-49 Somewhere between Lean to Likely D (I think Mike Levin that seat by a touchdown or 7 to 9 points)
This map actually looks better than I thought it would. There are also 8 tilt seats to the Dems. If Trump does have some sort of electoral wave, we could see 230+ seats easily.
When the country is 90% red from a satellite view 💪😊
I hope Mayra Flores wins
She's running in a solid Blue district. The literal first time it went into the competitive range was in 2022 when Flores was running as an incumbent and even then it was D+8%. Unless Trump sees a massive turnaround shifting the District by 20 points (as he lost it by 17 in 2020), there's zero chance for her to win. She'd be better off challenging for the 27th district where she can win.
Connecticut is going to be pretty close actually according to a lot of people on the ground.
D'Esposito is going to win because Long Island is red and because of the huge shift to the right New York will take
Thank you for another in depth, detailed, and thorough analysis RE! 🙏 my “go to” for political analysis and updates.
Vote Red down ballet! Trump 2024! 🇺🇸
Felonald45 for Prison 🎉 20 24 Years 🎉😢😅
@@murrayheaney9020 yea ok bot
11,780 People from Georgia on the Phone 📱 to Brad Raffensperger said Tr45son is the Greatest Ever Reason for Voting 🗳️ Blue 😂@@MMAandBoxingEnjoyer
Ivanka: Happy Father’s Day Daddy’o Felonald45: What ya Wearing HUN!@@MMAandBoxingEnjoyer
@@murrayheaney9020 bot
Alaska will always be red if they can get rid of rino Murkowski.
Alaska isn't really Red though. Believe it or not, but both Houses of Alaska are built upon with coalitions of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents (yes you read that right). Alaska's Senate is controlled by a coalition of 9 Democrats and 8 Republicans and their House is a caucus of 2 Democrats, 1 Independent, and 20 Republicans. Neither chamber is governed purely by the Republican party despite holding slim majorities in both chambers. Alaska is an extremely moderate state and that's reflected in its politics. Also, you do realize if Begich wins that he's considered Moderate right? Certainly more Moderate than Palin was. So uh no, Alaska won't always be red, especially if they keep pushing out extreme Republicans who will force a relatively moderate state blue. And it also won't last if Republicans lose support in Alaska cities which Fairbanks has been moving to the left in recent years and is slipping. And the same is happening to Anchorage as well. This isn't like other states where cities favor Dems and rural areas Republicans so if this keeps up the GOP is in trouble. Either way, Alaska is a moderately Pink state that will hold as long as Republicans stop pushing for extreme conservatives.
Have to check it out.
I don’t think Peltola will go down. RCV is still gonna be in effect this election cycle, maybe 2026 she could go down, but not this year
My fingers are crossed for VA 07, the primary is on Tuesday and I think either of the 2 front runners will have a very good shot at winning in November.
Trump2024 drill baby drill
As a foreigner I can't judge this, but the shapes of some of those districts look so ridiculous, what's up with that?
its something political parties do during redistricting, for example in illinois the dirstricts could be drawn by democrats to put alot of republicans in one district, therefore being able to have less districts that could go republican, giving them more possible house seats. Its called gerymandering if you were interested.
It's called gerrymandering. Because in most states the state legislatures are the ones who draw the congressional maps, whichever party controls the legislature in that state draws the map to favor their party. As a result, many districts have weird shapes.
It's gerrymandering. Gerrymandering is where you draw districts to either crack or pack typical voters for one party to help get your own party's members over the line. Illinois is an example of cracking as it dilutes Republican counties into Democrat areas. Packing is seen in Texas where Republicans try to push as many Democrats as possible into singular districts. You'll see the worst of it in IL, OR, TX, MA, and NC.
Breaks my heart what’s happening with Colorado. We used to be a purple state. I’m still voting for strong conservative candidates but sadly we’re just outnumbered by brainwashed sheep who keep moving here from blue states like California. They’re like a cancer that grows
Colorado is long gone.
You should give them a payback by moving to Austin and making it more conservative, data already shows Austin is one of the favourite places to young republicans to settle
Name all the Californians who hold powerful positions in the state government. Oh wait you mean that the politicians are overwhelmingly native born Colorado natives? Oh gawd , who can you blame now that the politicians are over 90% native born ?
Not true at all. You only have anecdotal evidence. I have real evidence saying otherwise.
Idaho had 50k new Californian voters register. 40k were Republicans and 10k were democrats.
Californians were polled on whether or not they're considering moving out of state. While 26% of very liberal respondents say the state’s high housing costs have made them seriously consider moving out of state, 39% of middle-of-the-road respondents and 45% of very conservative respondents say the same. You can easily extrapolate from these two examples you're rotting internally, not from Californians.
@@johnnada1222 Okay but who are the people who vote those politicians into office?
You always overestimate Republican support…
Well this is very hopeful!! Thanks!!
Thank you for your work!
God bless all here!
Predictions as of June 2024:
Presidency: Trump narrowly wins the Presidency (I think he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada and Arizona and Georgia and North Carolina but loses Michigan)
Senate: GOP picks up 1 to 2 Senate Seats
House: Democrats 219-216
If we don't keep the house, it will just be impeachment after impeachment for four years.
4:59 Kansas needs to vote out Sharice Davids
Sadly a very difficult task here. The district is trending blue quite significantly
@@Joshayne I believe low voter turnout in Johnson County hurt that district in 2020 and 2022.
I believe if Republicans can nominate a good candidate then Davids can lose.
Problem is that Kansas Republicans would either need to find a solid moderate or someone with actual weight to their name. That district is moving more Blue even with gerrymandering trying to make it redder. And unfortunately, as this channel shows, increasingly many Republicans are refusing moderates over hardline conservatives despite far redder districts like Alaska at large, WA-3, CO-3, and so forth clearly saying they don't want that.
@@fridaylambda3494 I’m not sure what Johnson County/KC is doing wrong. Republicans lead Democrats in that district. I thought Amanda Adkins was a great candidate in 2020/2022 but underperformed.
Honestly, it depends on how Conservative she was and how well she promoted her entire campaign message. I noticed that Democrats played it smart by focusing on policy which is probably the main factor. You need to explain both how you're different from your opponent and why you are a better fit to handle X, Y, or Z which Adkins excelled at. Plus, Republicans assumed redistricting alone would flip it which is always a mistake to make as that same belief failed to flip other districts they felt sure would flip and didn't. You got to play the district and Adkins probably didn't.
It will be a blue house by a fairly large margin
If you believe that, then please by all means name the exact districts that will flip and why without saying "It's a Biden District". (2020 proved that is irrelevant when Republicans made grounds despite Biden carrying key seats in CA and NY.) The huge issue with the House is that Republicans are defending their Swing seats while Democrats have vacated multiple. Additionally, Democrats made Huge mistakes in CA and NY that will also boost Republican chances. Incumbency is on average a 94% probability that you'll be reelected so making such basic mistakes again gives Republicans an advantage. Dems can still win the House, but only by maybe 224-226. There's simply no way they're flipping 30+ seats this election.
@@fridaylambda3494 a lot of maps that republican have attempted to gerrymander have been struck down .....and the reps have under performed in many special house elections as well as the last mid terms when the red tsunami failed to appear
Wexton in VA is retiring, not Spanberger. She’s running for Governor
If Trump is gonna do much better this time around the house is gonna gain seats. Never understood why the republicans were projected to have a net loss in seats.
Probably organized ballot fraud by the democrats made that happen.
Side note, but Kari Lake must beat Ruben Gallego
It want happen
Redistricting in PA makes a blue county, 70% red....and the Senate seat could be ours. Pa RNC is ground gaming, it's exciting to see.
I have no idea what you're talking about. Our map hasn't changed since 2022 and there's really no room for Republicans to grow outside of PA-7 or PA-8 where Dem incumbency will likely carry them over the line. If you're referring to PA-4, I can see it moving towards the right but not enough to flip the seat or our Senate Seat. Casey is simply too popular to unseat unless the TikTok situation kills his run which it is currently being ignored while waiting for the courts to intervene.
Ty
Thanks!
Vote red down ballot
Blue down ballot
@@travisholcombe4285circus clown 😂
They keep moving me back and forth between NY-1 and NY-3 without me actually moving anywhere. Was in 1 last cycle, now I am back in 3. I'll be working in the fall to help Mike LiPetri oust Tom Suozzi, hopefully once and for all this time.
We gotta flip VA7. So happy spanburger is bailing.
Unfortunately, the Democratic candidate has name recognition (Hint: he is the twin brother of Alexander Vindman.) and VA-7 has gotten bluer thanks to gerrymandering.
A district in MA has an open seat and one person here is pretty popular and his name is Bill Derbody. It’s the district with Needham, Dover, and Medfeild and he is pretty popular. He is a moderate but he targets affordability which is a major problem in my state so I really hope he can win. Also I know him a little personally too.
I assume that's for a local district? Because all 9 of the US House representatives are running for reelection. And even if they retired, MA is gerrymandered to the extreme so there's only one district that reasonably could vote in a Republican.
There is no chance Trump takes Portage county WI.
I think it is going to stay about 50/50.
I wouldn't place too much emphasis on Trump's effect on House races.
There are many voters who like Trump but won't vote Republican otherwise.
How accurate has Red Eagle been in past elections? I haven't followed this channel until the last few months.
Better than most in 2020, nearly perfect in 2021 and 2023, but not very good in 2022
@@RedEaglePolitics These are volatile times...hard to predict human behavior under such circumstances. Thanks for answering.
Off in 2020 and 2022
The GOP should spend tens of millions to contest house seats in the following states of WI, MI, IL, OH, PA, NY, NJ, TX, FL, CA, and NV to expand Republican control and to force democrats to spend tens of millions defending their own seats can this strategy work?
Probably not. The issue with focusing too much on too many seats is that you can ultimately waste money on seats with zero chances. Case in point, Republicans shouldn't bother with RI-2 or TX-34 as they're both favorable to Dems. Trying to crack deep blue seats is ineffective as it takes away resources better used in other areas. That said, I will concede some areas are worth exploring.
WI - Only use money to defend WI-1 and WI-3. Republicans are tapped out.
MI- Invest in flipping MI-7 and MI-8. Focus on defending MI-10. If they have enough money, targeting MI-3 and defending MI-4 are the next calls.
IL - There are competitive seats. However, Republicans are going to struggle as long as they have incumbents. If Republicans truly want to invest though, the 17th, 11th, and 6th are their best bets.
OH - Thanks to some dummymandering, it will be hard to unseat the remaining OH Dems. However, OH-1, OH-9, and OH-11 are in the competitive range and are potential places to consider.
PA- PA-7 and PA-8 are the only swing seats left to flip for Republicans. They'll really only want to invest here for those flips.
NY - This is a defense state. Republicans are unlikely to make any gains so they need to focus on defending their weakest incumbents. NY-3 will likely stay Blue now that it's incumbent is back and NY-18 is their last remaining area to truly make gains. Pushing it won't work in any other seats. Instead, they should focus on building on the momentum to hold their precincts in Kings and Richmond Counties. That's really the only thing they should do.
TX - There's zero room to grow. Republicans maxed out their potential with this gerrymander. There's only 2 swing seats left and 1 lean blue seat. It'd be pulling teeth out to flip any of the remaining seats.
FL - Same situation. The remaining seats are all either lean to solid blue. Republicans shouldn't invest much in this unless they can make the Miami Dada shift permanent. If they can, that's their only remaining route. Otherwise, just like TX and NY, it's a defense state.
NJ and CA are interesting in that there's still swing seats, but only CA typically votes for Republicans in increasingly blue seats. There's some minor room to grow, but there's also not that much room. I'd also label them as defense states as they're both almost maxed out. Kim's open seat in NJ is likely blue but their only opening in NJ and CA-47 is the same.
I'd be curious how you think the map will change if this is a historic Mondale like white out for the Dems. I know we aren't their yet, but I like the trend.
Nominally Republican and functional Republican are different. RINO and MAGA are different.
Don't sit on your hands. Get out and vote. Take someone with you
@RedEaglePolitics should we be worried about older people supporting Brandon more (for some ungodly reason)?
The producer of this video didn’t really look at New Hampshire. In CD-1 people who I spoke with aren’t happy with Chris Pappas. Also in CD-2 Annie Kuster is not seeking re-election. NH has a chance of 2 Republicans going to the House.
Need Alison Esposito to win she should have been Lt Gov
Gotta love the FF slide
I would like to see NH 01 Pappas go down. We have several candidates running hopefully Pappas will go down.
WOW
PENNSYLVANIA FOR TRUMP.
Good video
WA-03 is going Red
Only if WA's Republican party endorses one of the two Leslie's running and fund them. Kent already lost to the now incumbent and will likely do so again if he runs. It's pretty clear that Moderate Republicans are needed to hold the line, not ultra conservatives. Kent is more likely to lose.
I think the big green Fragile Earth paradigm is collapsing.
Kent has no way to win Wa3.
Agreed. He is a crappy candidate. If the GOP nominates a more moderate GOP candidate in that race, then they have a chance of flipping that seat.
@@123ucr yeah. That was the only reason it flipped in the last election, despite being lean to likely R... The Dem ran a moderate candidate.
Does this prediction include the Dominiion cheat machinne.
You mean the Dominion Voting System Company that was awarded a Payout of $787.5 Million Dollars for being Slandered by Pox Infotainment for spreading Lies that the Election was Rigged. And also Voting Company Smartmatic were awarded a Massive Payout from OAN for them spinning the Conspiracy Theory that the Election was Rigged 😢😅
Nope , just your delusional mind
@travisholcombe4285 That's exactly what Dominican cheaters say.
Your so screwed
@@travisholcombe4285 says you
We need trifecta in 2024!
We just need a majority of whichever. Because if Trump loses, defective Republicans who do nothing, will do nothing.
I think congress is stringer than the president, we need to vote in house and Senate primaries if anything is ti be done
good video!
Engagement
The Constitution clearly says that State Legislatures create congressional district. I read nothing in there about Judicial review. Judges should not be allowed to create judicial district like they are trying to do in some states.
The problem though is that said maps are violating the State's constitution and Federal Law. If states refuse to comply with their own laws, then someone who is willing to do so has to be appointed. As harsh as it is, Louisiana and Alabama broke the law. Alabama refused to comply so it was the Judge's responsibility to fix the problem. Louisiana is the opposite where they did the legal thing when told no for their map. There has to be a check and balance in place since many states outright abused this power and broke the law. Thus, it falls to the judges to intervene as even Governors have broken the law. Also, if you're truly going to argue that, you do realize that means the abysmally terrible NY Hochul map would be legal right now? Even though it breaks NY's state constitution? Which it is the job of the courts to rule on the Constitutionality or Legality of a map?
I'll be trying to make WA-06 red by voting Drew MacEwen (R) to join forces with Joe Kent (WA-02)
The problem with WA-06 is they included large parts of the city of Tacoma to be included with the otherwise relatively rural Olympic Peninsula remainder of WA-06. Totally rigged.
Okay and is Drew MacEwen at least more Moderate? That district is lean blue so a Moderate strong Republican candidate could win. But if MacEwen is just as far right as Kent, he'll lose by a wide margin. As for the gerrymandering aspect, I don't disagree that due to Republican and Democrat infighting that it is slightly gerrymandered (as I've redrawn significantly more balanced maps multiple times). However, the arrangement of the district could swing as a competitive R or B seat depending on orientation. And that unfortunately means Democrats would still have a small advantage. Jefferson and Kitsap are fairly blue and are shifting your district bluer as well even if Pierce County is responsible for the ultimate Blue lean.
@@fridaylambda3494 No, the recent voting is rigged, so Kitsap being blue is a myth. Kitsap is home to navy bases, 2 of them. It's not that ghetto.
@@fridaylambda3494 Drew is better than Derek Kilmer (D) because he's not a Democrat. Joe Biden is a Democrat.
@@fridaylambda3494 Jefferson is blue, blue hairs, but low population. Mail In Votimg is 100% rigged.
Trifecta🎉🥳📯🤘🏼🐘
Ehhh a little lofty with some of these predictions. I currently have it at 220 R - 215 DEM. Either side has an almost even shot at winning though. Trump on the ballot for sure helps, but there are quite a few vulnerable GOP seats.
Keep it Pithy
This is how we win 😎
Any RINOS leaving
Can you do a video about Allan Lictman and his crazy pole model. ?
If this is the prediction we probable lose the house.
I'm ready to ride the RED WAVE
It's going to be a long wait
A 269-269 electoral college tie makes the House pivotal and will the GOP control 26 delegations?
What is the breakdown now?
@@2themoon863 25-23 Republicans with ties in North Carolina and Minnesota. North Carolina will be flipping back thanks to the new map, and Democrats control the delegations by 1 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Also the Alaska seat could flip back. Republicans will almost certainly carry the majority of delegations.
Honestly I disagree with the map I think your dooming on the new Alabama and Louisiana seats they honestly aren’t that bad for republicans they both had much higher turnout in them in the primaries then democrats plus less black vote and trump on the ballot
I feel like the shift of black voters to the right is concentrated in Georgia, the Rust belt and New York
Louisiana's new 6th has almost never gone Republican. It's a very reliably blue area that typically doesn't vote Republican. Ignoring that, Louisiana isn't like other states. The racial tensions and issues extend to politics. Black voters in the state vote for Black candidates and white voters vote for White candidates. While that doesn't hold for all voters, it is a pretty common enough rule that you can see in the state. Black districts typically have Black candidates and White districts will have White candidates. That district is going to flip if Fields wins the primary. Also, btw, no Republicans have declared candidacy yet for the race and there's only 1 month left until the deadline. If no Republican declares Candidacy, the seat is an automatic flip. It looks like even Louisiana's own state Republican party is writing off the district.
As for Alabama's new district, it is a swing district. However, it will likely have the same voting philosophy especially since Montgomery is now getting a chance to elect the candidate of their choice. Democrats are going to be highly motivated to vote and with an actual Black candidate as the new potential Representative, there's no reason not to vote for him. Especially in a state where the racial voting lines and tension are so high. Blacks might vote for Trump, but they'll want an actual Black man as their Representative over a random White one if push comes to shove in the South.
@@fridaylambda3494 this is all just bullshit lmfaooo 😂
Literally pulled up the map on Dave's Redistricting. In most elections, LA-6 literally voted Democrat. Clinton won it by 20 points in 2016, Biden won it by 20 points in 2020, went to Democrats by 10 points in the 2016 Senate race, and 11 in the subsequent Senate election in 2020. and Bell won it by 28 points in 2019. Even the Attorney general race in 2019 went to the Democrat candidate by 2 points. The only time it went Republican was during the 2022 House Race because one of the incumbents from the old district RAN UNOPPOSED. This is literally data and facts. That district almost always goes to Democrats. It's going to flip.
And if you want proof on the Blacks voting Black candidates, sure we can talk about that. First up, Senator Barrow's 15th district is a Black majority of 73%. Senator Boudreaux is in the 24th district and it is 53% Black. Senator Bouie is the 3rd district and surprise it is 57% Black. Senator Gary's 7th district is 57% Black. Senator Duplessis of the 5th district is 50% Black. Senator Fields of the 14th District is 58%. Senator Harris is in a 57% Black district as well namely the 4th District. The 34th District is 63% Black and is represented by Senator Jackson-Andrews. Senator Jenkins of the 39th district represents a district comprised that's 63% Black. Senator Price of District 2 is also a Black district of 57%. Want to know what race every Senator I mentioned is? Black. And that's all 11 Black districts in Louisiana's Senate. In layman's terms. every single Black district in Louisiana's Senate is represented by a BLACK person. This literally takes 5 minutes to look up on Google using the Louisiana's own state website, Dave's Redistricting, and Wikipedia. That literally is legitimate evidence that Black voters vote for Black candidates in droves. Additionally, just to rub salt in this wound Alexandria and Shreveport are both in the 6th district and both are represented by Black senators and are Black cities. You really want to claim that these cities won't turnout in droves for a Black candidate? Ignoring that, again, there's no Republicans RUNNING in Louisiana's 6th and the deadline is next month. If no one choses to run, Cleo Fields is going to win and as I just mentioned, they're Black running in a Black majority district.
And I'm not bothering to pull up the Alabama data to prove the exact same point. Please explain to me why when the chosen Democrat candidate is again Black won't win against a no-name real estate agent with no political standing from Birmingham will win. Especially when Birmingham and Jefferson county have voted Blue since Bush in 2004 and isn't EVEN IN THE DISTRICT. And we know Montgomery will vote Blue which is the largest city in the district. There's zero reason to think that it is going to stay Republican when Black voters outnumber Whites and Hispanics. You're literally asking the impossible when Republicans had an infinitely more well-known candidate that they didn't choose. No offense, but this seat is toast.
Those porn bots waste no time huh?
I would like to see your predictions with the generic Democrat in the house, Senate and presidency
Keep voting..don’t be lazy and stay home…go vote democrats out of office
Vote. Too big to rig.
I hope Tom Barrett gets renominated for my home district MI-07. He was one of those candidates that got screwed by the "reproductive rights" scam of the Dems in 2022
Barrett is running unopposed for the Republican nomination. However, it will largely depend on how well he runs in a more moderate district. If he pushes too far to the right, I can't see the district voting for him.
I have personally spoken to every person in the country and everyone is voting for Trump in 2024! Anyone that disagrees with me is obviously a bot or not in the USA.🤣🤣 TRUMP2024 FJB
What Drugs 💊 have you been taking 😅
Vote Sherrod Brown ==⭕HI⭕ == out.. Do nothing Senator since the 90's DemocrAzy party..
I don't see him losing. It'll be close, but he'll stay in. Merrin's chances of beating Marcy are the best anyone has had in many years, though.
Maybe super house majority’s just won’t be as common anymore. Also though, got to get Mike Johnson out of the speakership next year.
You will hate the next guy just as much.
@@dvferyance Yeah I will if he’s a Russia obsessed fraud like Johnson. 🤣
@@dvferyance If the next guy isn’t any better, then yeah probably…🤣
Geez dude slow down with the scrolling. Its a video, not talk radio. Unfortunately you have been getting worse about this the last few months. Please just slow down a little bit. I dont want to stop watching your channel, but ya keep it up and I will have no choice.
You can control your feed speed. Slow it down on your end.
Top right corner...click gear
Playback speed...select desired speed.
@@deep6301 Its not the feed speed, its the scrolling up and down. And I am not going to slow the playback speed. REP has gotten in a habit of rushing through the video's lately. He needs tp just slow down a little bit. This 12 minute video would have been 57% better if it was 15 minutes long.
I don't get the deep blue districts in Nebraska. Montana is another strange state. Deep red when it comes to congress and the presidential election and yet John Tester keeps getting elected.
Nebraska doesn't have a Federally Blue district though, It has a highly competitive seat in the Omaha area though. However, if you're wondering why every district in their Senate isn't red, it's because to get your voice heard, you need to vote for something different. It's why not every seat in IL isn't Blue. The rural areas would have zero say compared to the other areas. They still don't, but it'd be even worse. Kansas has a Blue district, but again same reasoning. Montana has a Blue senator because it is a very Moderate state similar to Alaska where they prefer Republicans, but are open to Democrats. Republicans are often super conservative and that can be unappealing to more lean or tilt red areas forcing them to turn to Democrats for more balance.
Why tf would anyone voting for Trump, like swing voter types, voting for DJT because they don’t like the direction the country is going…ALSO vote for Dem Congressional candidates???? Who will handicap his every move!! Make it make sense.
They might be not voting for the gop candidate. I am sure some view their local rep as not that bad compared to national politics.
They probably hate both Trump and Biden but hate the open borders and crime, however, these people are probably pro-abortion and pro LGBT
Some people may want Democrats balancing out Trump, providing a check on power. This may be healthy. You would think so if it was the other way.
When I looked for a state or place to retire, I thought of Arizona. Then I saw the maps like this and I didn't want to live in a state full of liberals and demorats, so I didn't move there.
New York State
= 49 Counties Republican
= 13 Counties Democrat
Yeah, but the population of those counties makes a huge difference. Most of the state lives in the NYC boroughs. Ignoring that, many counties aren't 'Republican,' but competitive seats that are leaning more Republican in recent years. They can easily revert if Republicans lose momentum.