Mohamed El-Erian Previews Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
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- čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
- Mohamed El-Erian, University of Cambridge Queens’ College president and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell must address past, present and future issues in his speech at Jackson Hole. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” His opinions are his own.
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The cost of living crisis appears to be a global problem, although here in the UK it has been made worse by the increase in the prices of many goods. I believe that the government has the ability to reduce the cost of electricity, but for some reason, don't think they are concerned about how the common person would do in these strangely challenging times.
Things are getting dicey, and the sad part is that a lot of people won't realize how bad things are until it's too late.
@@craigpotter1262The cost of living has gone up and the economy is in tatters.
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@@williamadams2361 Wow buddy, that's more than a mouthful of profits you're making. How do you achieve this feat consistently? You must be a genius in trading.
@@craigpotter1262 Anyways not actually, what I know about trading almost borders on zilch lol. I make huge profits on my investment since I started trading with Mrs Debbie Ramirez, her trading strategies are top notch coupled with the little commission she charges on her trade.
The best macro-economic commentator out there - kudos Dr El-Erian!
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
I wonder how a lot of folks are making huge 6figure killings in this downtrend, only just that such technique are mostly successfully executed by folks with in-depth market knowledge.
It all relies on your strategy and your willingness to stick with it, and the stock may fall further, but if you are a pro, making significant profits on this downtrend should not be a problem.
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.
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There are lots of mixed opinions about stocks and there projection in the next coming years, I aim for short term solid gains from market correction and I'd definitely jump on the boat if I knew a thing or two about day-trading, but then again what do I really know? I'm just looking for the right moves to grow and hedge my stagnant reserve of $370k from inflation.
it's all hype! best to ignore the trend at the moment whether bullish or bearish, and stick to a proper trading plan preferably with expertise assistance.
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He gets it he’s flawless with his answers
Agree. And he's doing it in low English. Fr'instance: "He's gotta deal with" "He's gotta figure out" and my construction-worker favorite, "And let's not forget, we have a framework that's not fit for purpose."
@@omm5960 😂
Lol he’s always wrong
@@DKK He's really not though.
his the only person I am willing to listen to on Bloomberg
Don't miss out on Larry Summers, he has been marginally better than Mohammad El Erian and both of them have been warning us about clown Powell for over a year.
Mohamed el erian is a shining light of rational in a very irrational market
Love Mohammad El Erian. Guy is so on it.
What Mohamed is saying, is that the Fed Meeting belongs in Kansas City at the Motel 6, and NOT Jackson Hole at the Jackson Lake Lodge. They don't have a clue.
Yes! Lol, exactly. Not a vacay in Jackson hole.
Has El-Erian taken over Bloomberg already? Glad that there is a bit of light and no rain for those sitting outside.
A crash and bullish market provides equal high-yield potential, it's all about information and strategy application, I've seen folks make huge 7figure profit in a crashing market and pull it off much easily in a bull market , Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting somebody somewhere rich.
well politicians for certain are gaining off the crash, and true the average individual could profit off a crash but such high-grade investing come with equal risk which can only be managed by a proper pro or expert.
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Thank you so much! Found her webpage and left a message. Hopefully, she responds.
All my respect for this man !
Brilliant he is so on the Money. I always listen to his remarks because he is right.
‘Fed’s communication hasn’t been consistent’ most important comment.
Youre a shill. Stop spreading fud
you said it - and the fed is supposed to be nonpartisan. Most of it's swagger is from what it says, not what it does. it's the illusion they want to maintain
That's because he's in Blackrock's pocket!!!
@@thebear4880 lol you're the shill. one year ago at this very meeting, "transitory" inflation was born and markets meltup and look at us now. blind blind blind
@@marshallman9412 no faucci said covid was transitory. Jerome said inflation was transmissible. These are facts
I really like El Erian.....he speaks simply...doesnt use all types of unnecessary terms to twist his words...he says what he needs to say....simply precisely.
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Excellent analysis
You can clip Mohamed El-Erian saying "It's huge John, and good morning" for a gif in this video and nobody can stop you. Do what you want with that information.
Mix in some "it's sticky"
Well the truth is always with Mohd.
If I were Jerome Powell I would just call in sick
He was one of the main causes of this debacle. He should have called in sick two years ago.
I may not always like what Dr. El Erian has to say but by and large he has a very good track record of being spot on correct. He also explains things in a non condescending way which I appreciate. I believe that he is right we are not out of the woods. Build yourself an Emergency Fund if you don't have on and hold on.
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Al Erian is the only economist I listen too.
Lol
@@DKK Yeah while Jimmy chill and everyone on CNBC said inflation is transitory, Al Erian called it in MARCH 2020. Im not an economist but even I know printing money has consequences, LOL
@@benthungin8949 he’s said the same bs since 08
Great discussion about protection of purchasing power.
Wow Tom is a CFA ! 69 years old and still working 👏
The market isn't feeling it because they keep propping it up with more money printing which creates more inflation. Crazy.
Inflation is gonna get insane with every bill he keeps passing and aid delivering
There is NO fiscal discipline anywhere in our system. This has to change.
This guy is on the ball! Exactly…everything seems to wishy washy with the fed. Hence nothing is changing.
Inflation comes from one place. The federal reserve! Aka milion Freeman. Stop printing money!😎just saying.
Pah if only it were so simple...you forget there a big world out there...featuring interlinked economies with their own monetary policies. It might do you some good to travel outside the US. And actually see the " world". Too many people rationalize the world into black and white...childish.
is it me or is the panel consistently pushing a bullish narrative which El-Erian keeps deflecting with each "real" answer.
i think we closer then ever
stagflation for the rest of the decade
Never once does El-Erian mention the "D" word as the root problem ?
After decades of money printing ...... we have a Currency DEBASEMENT "based" cpi inflation.
Rates MUST be maintained high no matter for an extremely long time or you won't have a currency nor economy !
Make Mohammed the new Chairman of the Fed ! 👏
From a communication stand point the Fed should shut up and talk much less and let actions talk, I would have 4 meetings max per year and gag all the governors
You are right!!!!!
El-Erian words always seem to make sense to me.
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John Lisa and Tom are the best 👌 ❤
Mohamed has an eye on Fed Chair. He has been trashing him for some time now
Would you prefer?
Deservingly so, the fed has been so wrong
@@roberi5189 no doubt this chair is one the weak ones. Lets see where we land
I like Mohamed El-Erian he speaks the truth
He has the integrity !
Very intelligent fellow
He knows where neutral is
He finally said it. The Fed has failed US.
We gotta put inflation down
- More out of work
- Crush house prices
BUT with US Debt to GDP % > 120%, inflation is required to deflate the debt away. Either this way or deep austerity and misery.
Love this guy
At the end of the day, the Fed will be forced to pivot to prevent the sovereign debt bubble from popping. That’s the one thing worse than runaway inflation many seem to overlook. I don’t see any scenario where we avoid pivoting long before inflation is normalized
Brandon! I'm sick of telling you let's go. Just stay. I'm leaving. 😂😂
Inflation is caused by the money supply increasing > MV=PY
> M ; money supply > V ; velocity how many times dollar rolls over in an economy > P ; prices of goods and services & lastly Y > Real GDP
The velocity of money and real GDP do not make gigantic changes to the formula they’re fairly constant
So what does that leave us with >…..
( money supply = price of goods and services )
Congress must stop spending money and increasing the money supply that’s causing US inflation ! The Fed chairman Powell should tell Congress to knock it off because you’re making my job harder stop spending foolishly !
Damn looks like after seven years of listening to the doom and gloom channels, they’re finally going to be right
Fed is already stating Det flip flopers 😂😂😂😂🤡🤡🤡🤡⛽⛽⛽⛽
Fed Powell: whew, inflation might have just peaked...
Government: *looks at student debt* hold my beer...
End the Fed.
He speaks facts always
Lol
Tesla = resilience
صلاة
العالم الروحيُّ هوعالم رغبات. في الوجود يوجد رغبتان إثنتان:
١ - رغبةُ الخالقِ في إِغداقِ البهجةِ والمسراتِ الكاملةِ على خلِيقتهِ.
٢ - الرغبةُ في تلقيِ الملذَّات والسرور الكامل للذات وهي “الإِرادة في التقبل” التيِ خلقها الخالقُ والتيِ تدعى الخلِيقة أَي”المادةُ” أو جوهر الإِنسان.
لا يُوجد أي شيءٍ في الوجود بجانب هاتيِن القُوتين! فكلُّ ما بإِمكاننا إِدراكه وحتى تصوره ناتِج عن هاتين القوَتين الروحيتينِ. رغبةُ الإِنسان تدعى “صلاَة”. فالرغبةُ في داخل الإِنسانِ دائماً تستغيث وتناشد الخالق.
فالروحيَّاتُ هي ما يُنميه الإنسان بالتوافق مع صلاته. ولكن صلاة الإِنسان الحقَّة هي سؤلهُ وطلبتهُ في أن يصَحح الخالق رغباتهُ الأنانيَّة ليكتسب عليهِ سمة المحبَّة والعطَاء، السماتُ التي يتحلى بها الخالقِ.
صلاةٌ
النفسُ ليستْ إلاَّ رغبةُ الإنسان المُصححة والتي هي بارتْزُوفَهُ الروحيِّ ورغبتهُ بقبول نور الخالقِ بنيَّةٍ صافيةٍ على أَنَّه يتلقى منْ أجل الخالق وليس لنفسه.
صلاة الملك داود بن يسي
ارحمني يا رب حسب رحمتك.حسب كثرة رافتك امح معاصي.
اغسلني كثيرا من اثمي ومن خطيتي طهرني. لاني عارف بمعاصي
وخطيتي امامي دائما.
اليك وحدك اخطات والشر قدام عينيك صنعت لكي تتبرر في اقوالك وتزكو في قضائك.
هانذا بالاثم صورت وبالخطية حبلت بي امي ها قد سررت بالحق في الباطن ففي السريرة تعرفني حكمة.
طهرني بالزوفا فاطهر.اغسلني فابيض اكثر من الثلج.اسمعني سرورا وفرحا.
فتبتهج عظام سحقتها. استر وجهك عن خطاياي وامح كل اثامي قلبا نقيا اخلق
في يا رب وروحا مستقيما جدد في داخلي. لا تطرحني من قدام وجهك وروحك القدوس لا تنزعه مني.
رد لي بهجة خلاصك وبروح منتدبة اعضدني
I am just disgusted by Powell's consistent deliberation of contradicting remarks: aim to bring down inflation close to 2% and suggest getting close to neutral fed funds rate. When the current fed funds rate is half of the core PCE inflation rate how can he even bring up the subject of neutral rate? Aren't we miles away from being restrictive?
Powell main goal has been to stay in office so he has created all the money demanded by the Treasury. Even before Covid he tried QT. Markets crashed, Yellen and Bernanke read him the riot act and he reversed. With Covid, he went nuts supplying huge amount of money… $4.5T. More than needed for longer than needed. We got huge asset inflation.
The Federal Reserve has been corrupt in their quest to stay in power. This money creating madness started a long time ago, especially in 2008. Got worse after Covid with Fed supplying $4.5T way more than needed, longer than needed. Too much money related huge demand for goods & services plus asset inflation in stocks, crypto, bonds, real estate. Government is “misleading” about CPI in their quest to stay in power, especially the Fed. Powell tried a little QT, markets trembled. He had to back down on TV with Yellen, Bernanke “guiding” him. “Good Boy” got re-elected to the Chair.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Don’t blame just on Putin. Fed balance sheet has $9T. $4.5T was added since Mar-2020. We will need real price and asset deflation so people, can eat, pay for gasoline, utilities, buy necessities. Most important, afford rent or buy a house. Powell is the second co invade of Arthur Burns. Interest need to go above the real inflation which is above 10%. Anybody has been around and remember the early 1970-1980s? This is is worse because back then US debt was on $1T, now it is $30T plus.
@@AjitMD Thank you for the insightful comments and I couldn't agree more with you. After Powell's speech, I see lots of replies comparing him to Arthur Burns like yourself. I couldn't find much information about what he did/caused. Can you help me understand what he is known for and why he is brought up now after Powell's speech?
@@AABB-xq2ur Authur Burns was the 10th Chair of the Fed from 1970-78. USA ws already running a deficit with the Social Programs and Vietnam War. Then in the 1973 after Yom Kippur War, OPEC united and caused an embargo in oil and shortage. Price of oil went from $4/B or less to $13/B. Countries like Japan, Europe shut down. Froze in Winter of 1973. Most of the world had no money to pay for oil. So USA printed a lot of dollars which they lent to all these countries via banks like Chase Manhattan Bank by David Rockefeller. This caused the value to the dollar to go down and massive inflation by 1980 at 13%. Price of Gold which was $35/ounce in 1967, went up to $42/ounce and then to $800/ounce. Had to call Paul Volker to the Chair. He jacked up the interest rates to 20% short term. Country went into a sustained recession, unemployment, deflation. Entire industries got wiped out. NAFT and WTO did the rest. National debt was going past $1T. Now it is $31T plus huge public debt. Fed is scared of raising rates to real inflation. Let us see what happens next.
@@AjitMD Thank you very much for the detailed economic background of Author Burns. As you pointed out, I can see the similarity to 1973 in inflation spike even though the cause is slightly different(now it's more of supply shock due to Ukraine war even though oil is part of it). So it really comes down to which path Powell will take Burns or Volker. Based on your suggestion, I did a quick search on US national debt to GDP ratio and it was 0.33 in 1973 and 1.24 in 2022. I agree that printing more money now will lead to hyperinflation, but at the same time, increasing interest rate like Volker now will equally be disastrous tanking economy and spiking debt interest payment. Essentially, it all depends on how fast the current high inflation falls so that fed won't need to increase the interest too much. But since core inflation factors looks sticky at the moment, Powell would need to increase interest rate enough to tame aggregate demand if he plays it right, but historically, when push comes to shove fed always flinched with the only exception of Volker, but at the same time, interestingly the stock market didn't drop much and even moved higher in the midst of Volker's aggressive rate hikes. Will the stock market exhibit the same pattern during this Powell's interest rate hike cycle?
The largest investment mistake I've made was thinking the fed will do what was right rather than what was easy. I doubt they will change their stance now.
Forget about the past.....inflation is there to stay......until drastic measure......a mix of 1970's and 2008......
I expect 5% and more from the fed at the end of the year
Here in Canada...5 years mortgage at 5%.......also deposit for (1) year 5,10%..........
Savers turn
If the Federal Reserve was competent, the Fed funds rate should be directed upwards and above 5% for an extended period beyond two years. Having a sustained interest rate close to zero means you got no bullets in the gun if trouble comes over the horizon for financial relief. Having interest rates at close to zero and in fact promoting negative rates will make banks interpret that with charging clients higher fees to use their services which will force more customers to use alternative capital storage, funding, and transfer solutions. Everyone's getting the gist that the people at the Federal Reserve aren't that skilled which means they can be bullied into the wrong decisions.
I was always against full on globalization and thought markets were making big mistake on key economic elements and supply chains
Fed is protecting the housing market hence their talking point on neutral rate
Clown Powell is protecting his former Wall Street employers.
Powell talks like Paul Volcker but acts like Arthur Burns who blew it on inflation decades ago.
You are spot on, I'm an ordinary guy and I have been screaming your comment on Twitter for the last 18 months. Powell is worse than Arthur Burns. Lawyer Powell seems to be serving his former employers the bond traders, hedge fund and private equity bankers and not the republic. He can't even pretend to be serious about squeezing inflation. He's pathetic, and shame on Sherrod Brown and the CBC for pushing him through the Senate. He's screwing over the people they purport to care about.
Yes ! you've got the point ! Well said. As a forengner I feel the same with you but cannot write as brief and strong words like you. You are really a genius.
The Fed failed in forcasting, analysis, and communication, why? Because Powell was blinking, he was always swinging amoung policies and gave the market delusion. The most important is that he showed no determination fighting inflation. History will record him the worst chairman ever. A man majored in law seemed not suitable for that position.
We have to give Powell credit for the calls made in 2020.
@@brandonyt810 Every fed chair would know what to do at that scenario.
@@brandonyt810 Thanks for your opinion, the calls made in 2020, it's only limitless printing money more than really needed, and cause situations now. As to what I feel is that Powell has no picture what will happen whatever policy he made. He just follow the will of politician and trying to protect his position.
The Fed's primary but unstated objective is to make their rich friends richer. Their actions over the past 15 years validate this comment.
Calm down Powell will put the inflation inside the bottle.
What I got from this video: The inflation genie must go back into the bottle
How does that work when you've already started making wishes?
👏👏
They think its a Genie
But it's a Ghost from Christmas pasts .
Patient is still high on Dollars Deleruim .
And the Peasant worker ants still have to work , eat , sleep .
El-Erian is a big talker. He says Powell is late, must get serious. OK with me...double the Feds Fund Rate today! El-Erian would be shocked and disagree too fast, he talks out of both sides of his mouth constantly. He says Powell problem and what about his fiscal spend spend spend democratic friends? We need BOTH strong Chairman Powell and a USA Government with the guts to cut spending. I am expecting 2 to 3 years of recessionary conditions, until the Fed can get back to 2% level.
End the FED
No rate cuts in 2023. Hike till you drop is the name of the game. 3 quarters of recession starting in Q4 2022.
We are already in recession. Changing the definition doesn't change reality.
Jobless mugu
Truk pusher pass all?
The patient has medium-stage cancer with pain. Chemo therapy will case more pain, but eventually cure the cancer. Morphine will help the pain and make patient feel better in short term, but delay the cancer to late stage. Which medication do you choose, FeD?
They do half/half.
Alcohol
Sell Alcohol and tax The hell out of it .
Next put weed tax up .
El Erian never misses a chance to insult the Fed.
El-Erian practically begging the markets to go down at this point. 😂
What's wrong on the starving globe.
So true ……. These guys at the fed are the worst possible combination of poor analytics, poor communication and poor decision making……. Buy gold, BTC and silver and just forget about these Wallies
This guy is an establishment spokesman who says the administration's wild spending and tuition forgiveness aren't inflationary.
Watching / listening to Mohamed (and Peter Schiff) is like watching a weather reporter on the local TV channel. And whether it’s cloudy or sunny, they give the exact same report day after day, month after month after month, year after year: “It’s raining cats and dogs out there, and we’re about to get a hurricane.” Sure, eventually they’ll be correct, but are you going to be afraid to go outside until they finally are right?
Well i think Mohamed is pretty much spot on with his calls since q2 2021
@brandon Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
I agree. Economists tend to be perfect looking backwards. 😉
At least they are better than Cramer, who give wrong advice 90% of the time
@@brandonyt810 Mohamed steadfastly predicted a double dip in April - May - June, 2020. Those who trusted him missed out on the “V”. I listened to him until mid-May, then no more
El Arian has shorted the market and loves to drive it down.
These people have a look for radio. Pause this at any point, you have Tom Keene, who thinks literally everything can be explained by a Calculus metaphor, typing into his phone, Jonathan talking and engaging the guest intelligently, Lisa, who wears the weirdest clothes, nodding and giving a puzzled look to somebody off screen.
Hi
Could they pick a more expensive place to meet? Jesus
80k????😵
Neutral is 8.5%.
Why all the comments complimentig El Erian sound like a robot?
200bps hike in September.
No way….
Probably. 25bps hike
I wish, its not about being bearish or bullish. Its about being tired of uncertainty.
8000 bps hike
a 100bps hike would be a sufficient slap in the face to the markets, as well as the u.s. government to quit the excessive spending. there's still not enough capitulation, and this recent bear market 20% spike is evidence of it (not to mention the huge flow into memestocks and others)
Asleep at the Wheel consequence is accident. Failed Fed. Powell still keeping his job. Perhaps Mo needs to replace Powell! 😂
With who a socialist????
Am I missing something. Inflation is higher since there are tremendous amounts of money being printed . If you wan to slow inflation then slow down money printing. How increasing interest rate will help?? while money printing is going on like there is not tomorrow
bonds are sniching!
Now most inflation is due to oil prices, it’s a he problem from 1970s , now it’s time to shift to renewables as soon as possible so we never get in like this situation again.
Lol okayyyy
To: Mr. El-Erian,
What happened at PIMCO with regards to your misunderstandings of Mr. Gross’s mental health challenges?
An easy `Achilles Heel’ to exploit for a social climber like yourself.
Sincerely,
R.W.N II
* as previously written to you on TWTR
mahommad for fed chairman
Inequality in NOT a FED mandate. Powell has no business even talking about it. Stop the political influence with the FED it is independent.
Where are the jobs that pay a living wage ? China ? India ? Any other low ,high poverty ridden country . Ask your government. Their getting a living wage . Who’s working for who ???
The Fed is clueless and tired of hearing what they should do as they always disappoint, get rid of these PhD clowns and get some real world non economist types who know how to create jobs and value of money and support stable currencies and small amount of deflation
J. Powell's your man, he's a lawyer with absolutely no economics degree what so ever! How's that working out?
I hope I’m wrong in saying this (because I really like El Erian) but it looks and sounds like he is reading from a teleprompter. His facial expressions seem different also.
"And I saw the dead, small and great, standing before God, and books were opened. And another book was opened, which is the Book of Life. And the dead were judged according to their works, by the things which were written in the books.
The sea gave up the dead who were in it, and Death and Hades delivered up the dead who were in them. And they were judged, each one according to his works.
Then Death and Hades were cast into the lake of fire. This is the second death. And anyone NOT FOUND written in the Book of Life was cast into the lake of fire." (REVELATION 20:12-15 NKJV)
Today, while you are still alive and able, may you repent from your sins, believe in your heart and confess with your mouth that JESUS CHRIST is your Lord and Savior, so that through Him, your name will be written in the Book of Life.
"For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever BELIEVES in Him
should not perish but have everlasting life.
For God did not send His Son into the world to condemn the world, but that the world through Him might be saved." (JOHN 3:16-17 NKJV)
By God's GRACE, the gift of Salvation and Eternal Life is available to all. You can RECEIVE it. You can REJECT it. May you choose wisely. 💭
Your fucking religious beliefs…..
keep them to yourself and stick them where the Sun don’t shine, you filthy religious Nazi bastard
do people say and do things to make sure self interest aren't harmed. 2feds resigned for trading, one just a index fund
was OK with the masses. basic human nature
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Crude oil should exchange only with gold and silver ALL dollars are fake rich dad Robert KYOSAKI said........
TRUSTED INFORMATION
Until M2 comes down inflation will keep re-alighting.
You can crush volacity but as long as the fuel is there...
Baba booey Baba booey
Does China's recent cut make it less or more likely our central bank will continue to increase Fed Fund Rate?
Interesting question. China's rate cuts seem a reaction to the shutdown's Xi Jinping has been mandating in response to Covid outbreaks.
1 or 2 more hikes, midterms, black swan, crash, pivot, a period of low interest rates and new bull market going into presidential elections. That's my sequence of events prediction for the next 2 years
Same ole play book...............
time for some pain i guess 😢
So stocks are not going up tomorrow? 😂
Jpow will pump the market. Big rally incoming.
This is all he knows how to do. Every single time he speaks, the PPT pumps the market. Every single time.
This is the impression he created for all the watchers of what is happening to Afghanistan is not good. History will not be kind to him and more importantly the attitude of his people towards him. He should have stayed back and faced the Taliban. This way he could at least protect his reputation, no matter what the leader holds the last portion of the rope that was cut off which means taking the blame/responsibility, etc. To make it worse he left with a bundle of cash, his explanation true or false, he already created a bad impression.
The bottom line Taliban does not play fair, who does?
He’s Egyptian