Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 3
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- čas přidán 8. 09. 2024
- + Why Ilmanen-style "simulations" of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of 1) need to extrapolate extremes, and 2) The Niederhoffer problem.
+ The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.
Thank you so much Nassim sire for sharing your thoughts. Its always a pleasure to listen to you!
Reading the book and then listening to this really enhances my understanding.
I share the same sentiment.
Thank you guys. Food for thought.
Thank you, gentlemen.
Pensez-vous sortir en prochain livre ? Je vous remercie
Hindsight bias (kind of) here: I would have suggested as a reaction to the Monsanto smear campaign: Instead of ignoring it and labelling theses jobless (in a practical sense of the definition) smear campaigners as "idiots" and clarifying with your colleagues on a 1-on-1 basis the following response: give an extraordinary open talk at the university (also live-streamed or uploaded later) where you thank Monsanto for agreeing with your standpoint in their own way. Obviously, a big multinational company can't just say, yes that Taleb guy proved us wrong, we admit that. That would be just suicidal and against all incentives that there are and would only have negative possible outcomes for them, ie a highly fragile response. But, if instead they go for ad hominem attacks on you, they basically admit the same thing, as they can't argue against your arguments on a fact-basis and these kinds of attacks are the new popular (or good-old?) way of dealing with critics that you can't prove wrong. Further, you want to congratulate especially the mentioned CEO of the smear campaign firm for doing his job relatively well, given the low-life kind of unethical activity for an unethical client and if anyone would ever look for someone for that kind of job to be done which of course no one should ever do, that you can refer him to the given CEO. End of speech. In that way, your original response, which in my eyes is kind of fragile, that is hoping to be robust enough against these attacks, titling them (rightfully) as idiots and waiting for the steam to cool of (which would be a logical way of things to develop, but in a complex environment like today, that is not always given) which has at best neutral outcome for you but in the worst case (if a certain social momentum commences) a highly negative outcome, you turn the game around, use the energy of your enemy against himself and face much more positive outcomes (more support for you) and respond in the antifragile way. Btw, big fan of the incerto series
When will the entropy/mutual information paper be published? Will it be on arxiv? Can't wait!
open myself to luck, took a small gamble with a big reward.
Is Genetics paper related to Fisher Information? (vice correlation?)
Hello Nasim Nicholas Taleb. According to your book Antifragility.
Is Tony De Benedito a real person or a fictional character?
I really like his decisions and behavior. Victoria Krasnova is real, after all.
Здравствуйте Насим Николас Талеб. По вашей книге Антихрупкость.
Тони Де Бенедито это реальный человек или вымышленный персонаж?
Очени нравится его решения и поведение. Виктория Краснова ведь настоящая.
Jag
Watching this while VIX hit 55 and my put option increased almost tenfold lol, talk about timing.