Will Teams Try to Save Cap Space This Summer or Just More of the Same?
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- čas přidán 4. 06. 2024
- Hey all and I wanted to touch on this as free agency approaches.
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Shannon Skanes
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Sabe is an Inuit word meaning "To preserve" or "to store"
I had no idea Shannon was this learned and cultured!
hehe, he fixed it now for those confused by your comment :D
Shannon is a Man of Culture
Easy when you dont have a job
Sabe is also Portuguese for "you understand?"
Buffalo knows how to sabe.
Buffalo sabes fo sho
Only a select few will understand this comment 😂
The original title
Buffalo has sabed a lot of players over the years.
Sabremetrics?
Free agency for GMs is the equivalent of giving a toddler 50$ to spend at a grocery store. You know they’re going to come back with all junk food.
Yea the salary cap was to save GMs from themselves and bankrupting the league.
If you're a fan of a Canadian team maybe.
Video idea: comparing where teams were cap wise when the 23 man cap compliant roster was submitted in October vs where they finished the season. If we find that the final 4 were all running with no space... we have our answer as to why nobody leaves room.
Minnesota is an amazing example of what can be done with less money really.
Id love to Sabe a million dollar
Every time I see that jersey I think of Neapolitan Coconut Slices candy. 😏
Most talked about thing today sabe. VERY EXCITING
IGOR is getting his money, more than likely 12mil. Worth every dime considering how absolutely alien he was in carrying the Rangers into the ECF.
I think he takes somewhat of a discount.
Not a Rangers fan, so this is just me guessing, and not saying he isn't worth it, but I wonder if he signa 9.5 to 10.5 million deal to help make the team more competitive.
👁️gor!!!
At least 10M, he can easily compare to Vasy and Bob, while being a lot younger. So quite likely 11M+
I don’t know what the Kings will do, and neither do the Kings.
It really seems like maybe rob Blake ain’t the guy. We’ll see though
@@ianhall6614that PLD contract was just horrible.How Blake couldn’t see that coming is something only he can answer.
Thank you for talking about the bigger than LTIR problem, the double-retained pro-rated deadline rental where you get a 6 million dollar player for 400k of cap space.
And? When your team needs/uses it and goes on a run? Lol
@randombutrelevant1606 If the cap doesn't stretch obscenely for anyone, then teams that do a good job developing players will excel. I don't mind salary retention as a way to lessen the impact of your mistakes. Doing it just so there can be 110m dollar playoff teams sucks. Teams have to shorten their window just to survive the arms race.
Edmonton has to win in the next 2 years. Their is no way a team can win with that much money in that few players. Its just not possible. I dont know why players keep signing these deals when they have to know its going to seal the coffin on their cup chances.
Especially when one of those guys is only worth half of what he makes. Luckily they have Nuge, Hyman, Ekholm who are in absolute value contracts in that time.
@michaelkeller5927 the contracts of nurse and campbell hurt alot.
Kyle from Chicago will be smart. I've trusted what he's been doing ever since he took over. He understands the cap and how much they're gonna have to pay Bedard and the other young players in the next couple years. I think they'll bring in a few FAs but they're not gonna go crazy and sign all the biggest names
I think he will be, too. I suspect they will be a little over the cap floor and then use the rest to acquire picks and prospects while taking on bad contracts and being 3rd party on trades.
I'd love to see him swing a trade for Necas, even though the likelihood of it happening is low.
I would LOVE for Raymond and Sieder to only cost 6 mil each, lol.
Yeah, that's not happening lmao.
Yzerman has a history of doing bridge deals like that (Kucherov 4.5 in 2016 and Point 6.5 in 2019) with his young stars, but those deals may be difficult to replicate outside of Tampa. Neither of those players wanted to play anywhere else, and Point even turned down offer sheets.
I think there will be a lot of moves this offseason. With the cap going up, a good amount of teams have a lot of cap space, while cap strapped teams will lose some really good players. Can’t wait for free agency!
Yeah this free agency will definitely be interesting
Somebody Sabe ME - I'm dying of laughter XD
In all seriousness, I hope this becomes a channel meme now.
Yes!
Gee, I sure hope the Wings replace Perron and Kane with... Perron and Kane...
Nah, replace them with Kane and Perron instead, I have a good feeling about that combo
This is the ONLY Hockey News I really need. Nobody provides more in depth understanding on the goings on in the league and with the players. Good work Shannon. I took a few days off to mourn my Stars losing :(. Good luck to Oilers and Panthers.
How about they use those 15 million $ to lower ticket prices instead 🤔
The $87.7 million figure has been used on CapFriendly and elsewhere for a while, so it would seem to be definite. I heard it suggested that the cap could have gone up more last year, but it took the NHL a very long time to calculate HRR (hockey-related revenue) since the COVID shutdown to know whether the players had finished paying the escrow they owed the team owners.
This is the first summer with a significant salary cap increase in four years. GMs are going to hand out some silly contracts.
Also, the salary cap should be confirmed a month before the trade deadline.
You always hear that "Player X is signed for $8 million per year, Player Y for $10 million per year" - all round numbers. So how is it that teams end up with non-round numbers in their remaining cap space? Like, how does a team get to having $5,956,412 in cap space (to use Minnesota as an example)? Is there some player (or combination of players) in Minnesota whose contracts have a random $43,588 and so the team's cap space isn't just $6,000,000? If so, how/why is that? Are players negotiating for weird numbers? "Yeah, I'll re-sign, but not for $2.5 million - I want $2,509,487 or I walk!".
ELCs end up doing that usually
The rookies and call ups
Some of them negotiate weird numbers though, but it's rare
I know it's just a game but I always loved keeping 4-5 million going into August because players still on free agency ask less, and you can get a decent player on a reasonable contract late.
Excellent video as always!
I spent an hour or so looking at the cap situation out there and there are no teams that are completely screwed this summer, but also not many teams that I think are in a prime position to really make a splash this summer. Yes, San Jose has a ton of cap space, but they are not making the playoffs this season, so they are not going to make a lot of noise.
Carolina has enough room to sign three big names and maybe Boston is in a similar situation, but that's about it. In fact, of this year's playoff teams, Nashville and the Canucks are among the best when it comes to cap space.
On the other hand, as a Canucks fan, I hope they do almost nothing July 1st. I think after three days, none of the teams will have the cap space and any remaining free agents will have to sign for less than they are worth. Pius Suter was expected to get $2 million, maybe even $2.5 million, but the Canucks waited and got him for $1.6 million.
I don't understand why Carolina would move Necas when Grier or Davidson would probably trade future considerations for Kotkaniemi and a 4th round pick.
@@kurtwpgNecas requested the trade
The sharks could make a bit of a splash by trading for poorly aging contracts. It would get them in a lot of news videos at least and they could load up on picks.
@@jacobdill4499 Yeah, my example of Kotkaniemi is a only slightly bad contract of a young player who might eventually become worth it. But certainly taking on someone with 2 or 3 years left who will only go downhill could also be profitable.
@@jacobdill4499 While the sharks should be active, they aren't going to improve much, so I wouldn't say they were making a splash.
Buffalo being in cap hell and being as mid as they are is just gold
With Jack Eichel, And McJesus being free agents in two years, as well as Leion next year, I think teams that have any chance at getting one of them will be very calculated with their spending.
THG is my sabior, idk what I'd do without him
More Money, More Problems
I think much of same for most GMs. Totally agree Brandon that sometimes let too high priced a player go and get a couple of decent players with the money.
As a VGK fan, I think they are gearing up to make an unpopular move and not resign Marchy. They did it with Fleury on of the best seasons he’s had and I just feel like the signs are pointing that way again. They might also try and dump Theodore’s contract too
I mentioned this in another video about Theodore. Maybe trade his $5.2 million for next season for a pick or 2 plus I doubt they will resign Martinez
Kenny Holland will 100% save cap space, he is super know for that, he learned his lesson. (SARCASAM)
He will because he is retiring
I think Yzerman is one of the top 3 GM's to not push to max cap limit.
Yzerplan has failed
@@Ck69420 lol what
@@davidkruse4030 playoffs?
@@Ck69420 Yzerman is building long term. He's said as much again and again. He's improved his team by points each and every year since becoming GM while also building the NHLs #1 prospect pool. On what planet is that "failing"?
@@solarion9802 he’s been gm like 8 years and nothing. Team isn’t even good still. Yzerplan failed get real
Wouldn’t be surprised if Necas is a 90+ point guy with Canucks if he ends up there. Love his skill set, wish the Bruins would make a move for him if reasonable
I think what's being missed here is that GMs have permission from owners to spend to the cap and beyond because revenue's are allowing that kind of spending. The players repayment of the Covid years has had an unintended effect, which is that league revenue's have risen substantially and teams have more than enough funds to spend well in excess of $90m for player salaries and still be at worst break even. I don't think anything will change until we see a salary cap ceiling of $93-95m, because that's the true 50/50 point of what individual team revenue's are at for most franchises. But until that time, I fully expect that they'll spend spend spend.
Thanks for the content as always, I keep seeing these Koho ads, I wish it was about the hockey stick. Speaking of, I miss my old Koho hockey sticks. Also, answer to your question at the end of the video, I think it's complicate situation, given how some GMs have a different role to their team than others. I sense, they rarely correct past mistakes, where they give too much term or overlook a player's potential to decline rapidly, or in some cases, players get undervalued by GMs for most of their careers, Tyler Toffoli comes to mind, as well as Zach Hyman, as well as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Hey Shannon, another great and interesting video. I don't know if you need any other ideas, but I'd love to hear your take on how easy (or not) it is to be an NHL fan in another country (I'm in UK)? It's a nightmare not just because of time difference, but getting a stable subscription service to watch without "blackouts" etc? Please keep up the great work!!
Kent Hughes (probably) won't spend to the cap 🤷♂
no need to, in the context of making a huge splash in the free agency market. MTL is still 2-3 years min away from a p-off spot.
save the $ to pay for their homegrown emerging talent like slaf, arber, guhle.
does he even know last year free agency started yet?
@@carparthero Exactly. Guhle, Slaff and Xhekaj should be extended as soon as possible. More entry levels contracts surely on the way after the draft.
I think Hughes was told by ownership to slowly build a winner.This balls to the walls type of spending rarely works any way.
@@cahg3871 It's a tough decision. Do you wait until the team is ready to compete before looking for free agents, or do you sign what you need when available? If you wait, what your looking for may not be available. Conversely, if you jump at free agents when you can, you may have cap restraints moving forwards.
If nothing else maybe teams will figure out that if so many players are at point per game they can't all be eating 10% of a teams salary cap.
Several great points Shannon about the quandary that NHL general manager find themselves in, because of the system that has been constructed. In looking for solutions or changes, could we not look to other pro leagues for guidance. In the NFL your contract is NOT guaranteed, only up to a certain percentage does it stick. I think that NHL GM's need a similar get out of jail card to manage these tricky cap situations. Contract lengths should be capped, buyouts should not be so onerous. In the NBA, you just pay a luxury tax, which seems to work for them, but not MLB, where just a handful of teams really compete seriously every season. Leading up to the next CBA i think there needs to be a reset of some kind. (....and there goes another season....sigh)
is it good for teams to have a little cap space each year to sign long term contracts?
Nooooo it's fixed
Nice inside hockey
Good work..The thing to consider is, does team "X" have the money to reach the cap..Not all teams are flush with cash, like the Leafs...
As much as it's on the GMS, some of these players don't leave a dollar on that table.
I think how the GMs manage the salary cap is how they paint the picture of winning the Stanley Cup. McDavid on the lineup makes it easier. Imagine if Vancouver tries to sell Hyman, he is not going to cut it for $5m AAV because nobody believes Patterson has much chance of bringing a cup home after seeing his playoff performance. Florida's approach of signing short term contract first as optionality. If the player performs, he will get a juicy long term contract. This approach will backfire especially if Florida wins the Stanley cup this year.
That 11 million comes to mind with Kings and Doughty. That's potentially 2 offensive frwds added to your lineup.
Such a cute lil pic of Gary in the background
Thanks for your video content! The only suggestion I can give is to consider using black and dark colors on your boards! Reading lightly colored topics is difficult to read!
His response will be along the lines of the notes are for him to read ....
require each team to have a 5% reserve in cap space and raise the salary cap by that amount?
I wish something could be done like a trade fund equal for each team that uses for just trades im not an economic expert but it's just an idea just not sure how it would work but something to help make more trades
In LA Byfield was money before the all star break but, was lackluster heading into the post season. If I’m Blake And Luc I would go for a 2 year with bonuses and see if he can step up
Igor has to choose between challenging for a Cup, or being the highest paid goalie in the league. Super unlikely he can have both. Ask Hank, and Price how that works out.
Bill Armstrong of Utah will be smart about cap space.
I think one of two GM's will learn the lesson but most will spend to the cap and box themselves in
The coolest part of being a GM is spending to the cap with some billionaire's money and then he pays you some more of his money. After so many years of a flat cap and GMs trying to keep their teams from running away to free agency, it's hard for any competitive team to not spend to the cap, even if they probably shouldn't. Having even $3-4 million in cap space gives you a lot of flexibility to make moves you can't otherwise make if you have to find a way to dump salary to do anything.
The entire compressed time between the end of the playoffs and free agency is going to be insane for a lot of GMs out there. Hopefully, the Canucks have at least one deal all but done and are just waiting for the end of the playoffs to make the announcement, but it could get messy if they're waiting until then to get everything done. For a team like San Jose, it's not so much a time to load up on free agents but character and role players, who will help young players develop and keep the lop sided scores under control.
Hronek will be overpaid
By a little. He is a very good top 4 pairing d-man. I see maybe 6-7M
The Jets have a pretty good track record of trading or letting players walk who want more money than they are worth.
Does the cap number have something to do g to do with money made from the finals (viewers / games / etc).
So they don’t know how much came in till that’s over?
How Carolina can win a Cup: keep Guentzel and trade everyone you must to get Saros. How Canes can fail again: don’t make any goalie changes again this year.
So, $17.4 million for Marner's new contract?🤔
Sounds about right!
He's gonna get paid. And the GM will immediately regret. Or at next year's playoffs at the latest.
@@spearheadbt9601 It will be interesting to see how Treliving and company spin this one to be sure. Fully expect JT and Marner to be there on opening night. Rogers has hemorrhaged way too much money from their NHL rights deal to let those cash cows walk 😉
Nobody playing in Toronto is worth whatever they’re asking
@@davidrmouck5608 I can't see how the Leafs would even deal them out right now. Maybe once the playoff picture is more assured, they'll want to go to a true contender.
@@bradleyhenry2411 They are in a tough spot to be sure, I don't see how they win trading either player at this point. Who was the last $11 million (with NMC) player that was traded for actual value in return? Moreover, the media drives the message that "someone" has to move to improve the team, meanwhile all other GM's have seen Marner's body of work like everyone else. Why would a contender want such a player? Do they have the magic sauce to make him a playoff success? Maybe so.
It would be interesting if they did jot officially increase the cap space until December or January.
Kent Hughes in Montreal and Stevie Y in Detroit are smart enough to not spend too much.They know they may need wiggle room to make moves to benefit the team down the road come the trade deadline.Balls to the wall spending rarely works out anyway.
I think there is plenty of reason to wait to sign a rfa.Doing it early could really backfire if they end up being kind of a bust.
I look forward to the summer of goaltenders.
In Verbeek we trust
Couple of insane contracts and your team may have no money for support cast. I'm curious why so many gms make the same mistake.
I would think Florida has some cap space if they don't try to keep Tarasenko, but also wouldn't think they mind signing Tarasenko for 2.5M again. I really think they are going to get Reinhart at 8.5M and Mountour signs a team friendly contract as well, especially now that Forsling is looked as their nr. 1 defenceman. Lundell probably gets a bridge, but Zito would instantly jump if Lundell wants an 8 year deal for 5M or less.
Think overall Florida is a popular place to sign friendly, the tax situation helps, but their top players are hitting their prime currently and signed for a long time. People see that and want a chance to win the cup. And well being back to back finalists will help a lot, regardless if they lose or not.
Shows why drafting a strong core on O and D is key. Otherwise you need luck. Saving cap space to make runs at various free agents means you think specific players won't re-sign and that you have an excellent chance of getting them, which may involve tampering.
Victor Olofsson would fit well for the Sharks. More ice time would be beneficial for him
You are so right. Terrible GMs have ruined the trade deadline.
Just a great list of players on that board. Next two July 1st's are gonna be Christmas!!!! Love it! And to answer your questions...."no" and "no" and "no" again. GM's haven't learned their lessons, they will spend to their cap and nothing will change. Chaos happy times! Thank you THG for the great breakdown!
When you said "More Of The Same", you described Kevyn Adams in Buffalo.
Playoffs 2027 or Bust!
To answer your last question Shannon, cap space has already spiraled out of control in a sense. The trend just keeps growing faster and faster in all sports. Rightfully so because players bring the money in but the point stands in my humble opinion. But they will keep inching closer to the max over the years upcoming until it finally happens. They will probably be the next one in its truest form, whoever does it first.
I want to believe vancouver has... really I want to... 🙏
Not Lou Lamariello. Lou has already signed half a roster of lead anvils.
I'm hoping Grier will be smart, picking up a few quality guys for the ice and locker room. Players who will compete and may be able to be dealt at the deadline.
That and taking on a bad contract or two in return for prime draft picks
@@ianhall6614 if we can do what AZ/Utah did with taking on bad contracts for some picks I would be very happy seeing what this team looks like 3 years from now
Well, considering the fact that the cap has been stagnant for several years, I think the teams that feel they have a shot will spend right up to the cap. The rebuilding teams would be smart to save some of that space in order to weaponize it later.
Somehow I expect ottawa to be very quiet. Staios seems very timid about spending or making big moves
He won't have much cap space to play will, to begin with.
As the GMs have been eagerly awaiting a raise in the cap ceiling for several years, you KNOW they are going to spend, spend spend!
Not me commenting “GMBT” as Shannon says “if the answer is berry trotz”
Hey Hockey Guy (Shannon), do you think there's a chance for Bedard to move to Vancouver before or after his RFA period?
I think you have better odds of waking up on the moon than Chicago letting him go
How bad would it get if the league had not put a maximum of 8 years for the contracts now? I think that would just get ridiculous (even more than it used to be) like for example would PLD, Huberdeau, Gaudreau, etc have signed for even longer and more money? Very likely in my opinion and it would be incredible to see the GMs do the cap gymnastics on those terms.
Lindgren, schneider, kappo... ???
In Boston, I’m thinking Sweeney will keep cap space back once he finds the 1C he desperately needs. If he can do that, they already know they can be a playoff team with the guys already signed and smaller additions or resignings. My biggest worry is that they don’t sign a high quality 1C and have to improvise like last year.
I'm predicting that Draisatl and Shesterkin get signed to contracts before the start of the next season. Both over 12 million per season. I don't think the Oilers or Rangers will want to go into next season with the distraction of having those guys possibly leaving at the end of the season.
It'll be interesting to find out how next month's free-agent frenzy goes for various NHL teams. Of teams that according to CapFriendly:
- are below the US$64.7-million per-team cap hit, the Canucks and Canes didn't just this postseason see playoff action, but each won a playoff series
- otherwise have sub-US$70-million cap hits, the:
-- Panthers and Bruins won playoff series that by early-May had ended
-- Leafs and Kings saw playoff action but lost their 2024 opening-round series
- otherwise have sub-US$80-million cap hits the:
-- Oilers, NYR, Avs and Stars won 2024 playoff series
-- Jets qualified for playoff action but lost their 2024 opening-round playoff series
- have cap hits of no less than US$80 million, the Caps, Isles, Bolts and Golden Knights qualified for 2024 playoff spots but lost their opening-round playoff series
It's not clear to what extent having a high cap hit -> playoff success. After all the Leafs had at times before the 21st-century cap era had 1 of the highest cap hits of team rosters, and from the 1990s to the 2003-04 NHL season:
- made conference finals in 4 seasons (1992-93, 1993-94, 1998-99 and 2001-02)
- otherwise won playoff series in 3 (1999-2000, 2000-01 and 2003-04)
During the cap era the Leafs have only won 1 playoff series but haven't had too much trouble bringing in revenue from tickets to home games or TV deals. The Jets meanwhile struggled, during the 2023-24 season, to fill seats at home games, and for this coming season didn't help themselves via a 2nd-straight defeat in a playoff series in just 5 games.
Wings need a goalie, wouldn’t mind some scoring power either, yes I’d love Marner if he’s available
I disagree about comparing LTIR to third parties holding cap in a trade. I just can't see how the latter is not circumvention.
I'm surprised you didn't have Patrick Kane in the top 5. I think he should be above Talbot
I personally think they should save cap money but if someone figures out how to sabe they’ll be ahead of the pack
My warm take, Jonathan marchessault walks then signs in carolina to replace guentzel as I don't think he resigns there
There's a gamble involved with being a good GM. If you don't gamble a bit you can't win. Also scouts can screw you over.
Keith Jones just did a Flyers press conference today about what's up. They're saying they're not in a place to talk about big things for a bit until the cap situation is resolved. Lots could be put on LTIR but as you said, it's weird and they don't need to.
They have some things to do. They are not expecting to do trades unless it's a hockey trade that is done with eye to future and if possible soon too. But everything for next year.
Will you guys be better this year? Yes, but we probably aren't as high in standings as New Jersey gets back to where they were supposed to be, etc.
PV in Anaheim will have plenty of $$$ all season....
11 mil should be most teams bottom 6 with exemption to 3rd line centers
I think Guerin is gonna save for Minnesota so they can go big next year
As an Aaron Ekblad fan it hurt not seeing him on the 2025 UFA list
Vegas 4d chess. Keeps everyone and adds guentzel
I'm really curious to see what Utah does with all that cap space. I'd be surprised if they instantly become a contender. But I'm expecting them to be a legitimate playoff threat a lot sooner than later, now that they aren't a budget franchise anymore.
U forgot about Brett Pesce.(UFA).