Tesla Will WIN FULL SELF DRIVING!
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- čas přidán 6. 09. 2024
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James Douma has recently post a couple of fascinating articles about Tesla's Full Self Driving as a Service and the technological hurdles for anyone else to overcome to catch up. I break down his thoughts as well as my reactions in this one.
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Can you attach this article as a pdf to this video ⁉ Cannot find the damn article alone !
Traditional business models have placed risk above return which is the key factor in the foot-dragging caution exhibited by companies other than Tesla. Jame's points and your comments are exactly on point. This analysis and conclusions need to get out to the general public who will ultimately pull Wall Street out of their fear-driven stance at least in this case. Thanks and cheers to both of you.
Love your videos St. Know-It-All!
The doctor needs to be paid. I dont have any problem with his ads since he puts out great content. I fast forward by double tapping on the right side of the screen. Every 2 tap is 5 seconds. You might have to double tap several times.
I so this with Joel Rogan when his intro starts with that loud annoying music. I do that with other content providers who have long annoying introductions with weird sounds.
One thing I haven't heard discussed is how robotaxi will offer huge savings to people with more than one car. Okay, it's mentioned but in passing. Not only the cost of owning a 2nd car, but the insurance savings. Further, parents of teenagers will likely defer buying the kid a car since their mobility robotaxi will offer will reduce that need. The two car garage will be an underused luxury. Bundling a drunken teen (or adult) into a robotaxi will save lives. Foul weather commuting no longer need to risk your car. The elderly who should no be driving can stop driving sooner. Kids too young to drive can get to soccer practice on their own. Having your car in the shop will stop being a major issue. It will have huge benefits, far more than just reducing the number of cars a family will need for everyone to have mobility.
I enjoy your videos and the explanations of things I don't understand. I watched a video from TechGeek Tesla where he went into a 3 tiered system of highways to get to his destination. These 3 highways were stacked on top of one another with concrete above each highway. He lost GPS under these highways and the Tesla missed the turn to the destination and ended up coming to a closed off lane where he had to take control and turn around. This was version 12.4.3. Does a Tesla need GPS or can it navigate with only visual data?
Great video John! Bookmarked! But one correction: Skype was bought by Microsoft (who then ruined it by being greedy).
I have 2 model Y's 2021 and one Model X 2017 with 75 Kw battery, can the cars that I have used in Robot Taxi?
All 3 cars have FSD. I really appreciate your information on your channel.
Please let me know your opinion.
One of your best videos.
Due to James Douma - a national treasure.
You could possibly work on the format - it’s worse than PowerPoint.
FSD means I could loan my car to a friend that isn’t near me more easily - assuming the car could travel without anyone present! Just like a robotaxi will need to be able to do (legally!)
I don't think most people really understand what this is going to do to the automobile industry. Cheap robotaxis, 25 cent/mile transportation as a service (TAAS) will end car ownership for the majority of people, even most of the ones that claim it never will. Not only will they use robotaxis to get around but delivery services will also become dirt cheap and the whole idea of 'running errands' or 'going shopping' will become a thing of the past or at least a rarity. Combined with remote work and labor disruption that reduces the need for commuting, the need for car ownership will simply drop away. What all of this means for the car manufacturers is that all of this concern about sales growth and margin is going to be meaningless. Tesla and perhaps a very few other car makers (primarily those smart enough to license FSD and build vehicles for it) will build robotaxis and delivery vehicles and building cars for personal buyers will fall mainly to luxury car manufacturers (who will also be forced to license FSD and add hardware to their vehicles to accommodate it.) This is what automotive disruption will really look like, it isn't simply swapping out ICE vehicles for EVs. As Tony Seba points out, the disruption is never simply a substitution, it transforms the industry.
Norway calling. I have paid for FSD two times, in 2019 and again in 2021. Have seen NOTHING of FSD so far. So, FSD has to be either a personal lifetime license I buy once and follow me to all the cars I will buy in the future. Or a subscription. We all know the current model will not fly.
Would be fabulous to hear that Elon gifts AI4/AI5 h/w to ALL Teslas, irrespective of age, in order to maximise ‘the fleet’ switching to the ‘robo taxi fleet’ - accept cameras might need updating and calibrating, so some cost share might be needed; but gift FSD/AI5 h/w to jumpstart a billion robotaxi!
I think the biggest hurdle for fsd will be getting it to work in the dark which it barely does now but what about in the dark in the pouring rain, White out snow or thick fog.
Sounds exactly like the majority of human drivers. Difference is the computer don't have an ego . Therefore it will tell you it's not safe and to do it yourself. far as problems in the dark I haven't seen that at all . Hell I've seen it navigate in the dark down a dirt road with no lines.
I've been driving for over 20 years. In the dark in a storm l sometimes slow down to way below speed limit and l still don't feel safe. It's just not ideal condition for driving. Better stay at home if you can. If a self driving car can be better in good conditions, l think it can be better in bad conditions too. It could use tools usually not available for a normal driver too.
@@ZoltanBojas-ug6nf well it does have a bunch of extra eyeballs and the ability to focus on its only purpose. Driving. People don't do that . Half the time they're thinking about what they just got done doing or what they got to do when they get where they're going.
Could we as consumers offset Tesla’s societal risk by shouldering on a voluntary basis a higher insurance premium?
The problems with FSD SaaS model:
- customer needs Tesla FSD HW from Tesla and consultance to installnit correctly
- customer needs 'Tesla FSD compliant' HW and the model has to be retrained to it from tge ground up
Either of which are not appealing propositions. Way too expensive for the serious players in the industry, who can achieve the same or better results by the fraction of - or at the parity of - the cost while keeping the IPR to themselves.
Not to mention that the current FSD data faking investigations by SEC and DoJ does not affirm possible customer base's confidence on FSD's actual performance on the wild.
Cars are to many of us a kind of movable residence, storing the various things we need to have with us. Robo taxis will take us where we want to go, but they won't have in them what we want to have with us. This may reduce the transition, at least until we have possession packs that can be quickly inserted into the vehicles. Just a thought.
Using your car as a rolling junkyard is very expensive. We will see how much people are prepared to pay for that. By the time all the simple journeys have been covered, you will be able to order up a van, pickup or whatever you need on the day, replacing multiple vehicles with one system. In the end, there will always be people who insist on driving their own junk heap around. It doesn't matter.
Your Halo is gracing your head in this whole video. :-)
Tesla should make their own car insurance company to give very low cost insurance for FSD accidents.
Already done in some areas, takes time to expand though.
Full Stack: ‘Data’ might include the CPU capability of the Tesla Fleet (when at rest!), via Starlink D2C(!) as a competitor to Amazon!
I have a statistical question:
Can Tesa tease "Unsupervised Self Driving" statistics from its "Supervised Self Driving" data collection. An analogy (I know Elon prefers first principles): for FSD human drivers are like "training wheels on a bicycle" can Tesla remove the training wheels from the bicycle and have a self balancing bicycle (or in our experience bicycle/rider)? All of us who learned to ride bicycles had to get beyond the training wheel and/or someone holding on to us stage. So, what I am saying is I expect some period of transition (however short it might only be three months) where Tesla validates that its predictions of unsupervised driving statistics based on supervised driving statistics are accurate. Even if Tesla has already done the testing internally, it will probably want a public beta of driverless vehicles (even if for only 3 months) to reassure the public and media that this really works before it comes to a neighborhood near you.
If after a while there are no interventions whatsoever, because the self driving is so smooth, then you don't need to do this.
Licensing FSD makes additional sense; more companies invested in FSD brings a bigger lobby and skill set to the legalisation process.
The car insurers will tell you What.
Your video description links to everything in the world including every piece of video equipment you use... but you don't link to the dang article.
Technology gets cheaper overtime flat screens when a first came out we all seen that price. Holy crap now every family has 4 to 5 flatscreen TVs why because they’re cheaper there gonna be more cars on the road trust me.
Significantly saver than the average human driver is a VERY low bar. Go Tesla!
Robotaxis able to drive anywhere on well-maintained roads will be transformative whether Tesla or some other company provides them. Waymo clearly has a chance of competing. If it starts driving on interstate highways, it'll vastly expand its footprint. I would hire an Uber to the nearest interstate exchange to meet a Waymo on a long road trip. If Waymo operates off the highway at my destination, so much the better, but if it doesn't, I can have an Uber waiting for me at a nearby interstate exchange. Waymo simultaneously expands its intra-city territory to other major metro areas, then smaller metro areas, while it also develops more universalizable software requiring fewer remote interventions and detailed, 3D maps. Waymo is obviously working in this direction, and it's collecting a ton of training data.
Ahh…Tesla version does seamless door-to-door, include highways, even dirt roads & parking lots. Requiring an interchange for mass transport section is a sticking point, though logical in own right, definite short term option.
@@iandavies4853 I understand the goal of Tesla's FSD, but the system still requires a supervisor behind the wheel.
It is clear from EMs comments that hw3 will not be able to support robotaxi, more like to get a min 100x reduction in interventions, models need to scale accordingly (just like LLMs). We are talking min hw5, or 6 or7. Clearly Tesla has an advantage but not in installed base.
Not clear at all.
Maybe HW3 can do basic job, but AI5 and up will offer so much more - at much higher current drain (up to 1 kW of inference power).
There is a potential trade off between training computer - Nvidia super-cluster - and size of millions of inference chips.
HW3 also has lower resolution cameras, not so good for faster highway travel.
To paraphrase James, HW3 likely enough for moral imperative to apply.
Edit. Issues at present to do with planning, decisions, not perception.
Software & data, not hardware as such.
FAAS, baby!!
It is moral imperative to open source Tesla FSD then. If necessary by law.
Usually i like what James Douma says however FSD-as-a-Service is dumb... Autonomy will enable Transport-as-a-Service not restricted to RoboTaxi or FSD... Transport with a capital T... Don't restrict this idea to moving people this is ALL transport moving towards system controlled autonomy removing human labour from the equation! FSD is simply a stepping stone to that goal. Anyone seen the pictures of Tesla Semi with lidar on it? That was gathering the ground truth data required to train the perception model for Tesla Semi autonomy...
Your comments about government not being willing to take the right actions to shield companies from excessive penalties while they step up and take forward thinking actions that will ultimately save far more lives than they lose rings especially true in this election year when the two major party candidates seem to be completely out of touch with the realities of technological disruption and the multitude of changes coming our way.
Yes, Ford needs to get FSD from Tesla, they wont make the shift to EV’s unless they focus on what they do well, i also think Ford should buy the Sled/battery pack and electronics from Tesla and manufacture the body and interior in-house. Also join the super charger network asap.
GM will not make it, i predict, due to poor leadership.
I thought they already joined the Supercharger network?
My 2 cents. There is this constant background babble about Tesla having fields of "unsold" cars. If Tesla intends to hit the ground running with the Robotaxi fleet, where are those cars going to come from? The app feature kind of implies that everyone can put their car into the fleet but how many people will actually do this? Enough to launch Robotaxi? As far as we know, Tesla has not started production of the small Robotaxi car and if not enough existing Tesla owners volunteer their Tesla, how can Robotaxi launch? Personally I do not know anyone who has bought a used Tesla from Tesla although some are always listed on the website. Are the Robotaxis actually going to come from the mythical "fields of Teslas"? The few times I have seen pictures of large lots of cars that I did not immediately dismiss as being in China, I have noticed they have almost all had chrome window trim which would peg them as pre-2021 cars. Back prior to 2021 Tesla had very few inventory cars, almost all cars being built to order. That would beg the question where did all those pre-2021 cars come from? Tesla does not allow for lessees to purchase the vehicle at lease end. Are those fields actually lease returns that Tesla has been quietly stockpiling for Robotaxi duty after having had the lessees pretty much pay for them providing Tesla a fleet of almost free vehicles ready to use as Robotaxis?
Humans aren't perfect, but we expect fsd to be better. Will society buy the argument of this post? I doubt it.
Tesla has levers to pull as China will much likely let Tesla do it, so after that is a safer than human is a proven statistic fact in China then it will inevitably be let go in the US.
China is known for not producing Facts.
Philosophically, you shouldn't intervene.
I do worry that FSD is laser focused on being the best driver, while humans are capable of much deviousness. How would an FSD vehicle ’protect’ itself from humans trying to steal it, damage it, or otherwise have their fun with it at the owners expense?
This is a good point, demonstrated by "car terrorists" in the EU. One might not choose to drive their car during a masked celebration like Mardi Gras either. But other than that, Teslas have surround video and Sentry Mode. If you harass, steal, key-stripe, etc. a Tesla, chances are very good you will be identified and arrested. If not that, the insurance companies will be busy tracking you down. Certainly if you call a Robotaxi and mistreat it, such rudeness would be costly.
FSD can ONLY work in a driverless car. There is no way a cop won't pull you over as you sleep in your Tesla - and FSD isn't an excuse he or the courts will ever buy.
The police cannot charge a passenger!
@@grahambrown42 If there is a steering wheel then there is a human responsible for driving.
i bet in a heated moment or two …. you have been called worse then “saint know it all”!
No news on the 8/8 non-event?
That's just pathetic.
What were you expecting? Pathetic comment.
The FSD system will have to be sold by a detached company to shield Elon world from lawsuit bankruptcy.
Who wants to make a bet with me electric cars and Robo taxis will become so cheap. There’s gonna be 10 times more cars on the road. We’re gonna have to build underground board company. I don’t know why everybody think we’re gonna have less cars. I have four people in my family there’s literally 10 phones in the house cause they’re so cheap. We have eight tablets Technology gets cheaper People buy more
Self driving will fail in may conditions and will eventually be banned
PIPE DREAM.
Only city rats will adopt this.
Yes Robo Taxi will make a ton of money.
Yes FSD will make a lot of money.
But nobody that lives out side of a city is going to give up thier car for a taxi. Nobody.
This will help people who can not afford a car and people who can not drive for what ever reason.
Its just taxi.
It can not cost that much less.
The car still cost what the car cost, it still only goes so far and then it needs to be replaced.
It still needs fuel. Electric may be less but it still needs fuel.
It still needs tires.
It still needs cleaning.
It still needs insurance.
It still needs to make money for the owner.
It will need to pay Tesla for the app use (about 20%).
The list goes on and on.
Look at it as a bussiness case.
Its not that compelling.
Rural peasants aren’t required anymore.
Broadacre farms to be automated, GPS.
Livestock is caged in barns & feedlots.
We don’t need coal mines nor timber.
Why are you out there except to grow recreational mind altering substances?
Submit.
I'm thinking a driverless truck, unloaded by driverless forklifts at a warehouse full of happy little robots and maybe a few technicians. The business case for this seems amazing. Tesla could charge 800$ a month/rruck and it would still be dirt cheap. I saw in an article how Amazon is using robots now in the warehouses. Total cost of ownership is 10$/hour right now, the plan is to bring it to 3$/hour.