How’s Russia’s Economy Actually Doing?
Vložit
- čas přidán 8. 09. 2024
- Sign up to Brilliant for a free 30 day trial and you'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription: brilliant.org/...
Data suggests that the Russian economy has held up pretty well considering its military spending and Western sanctions. But can we trust their numbers? If we can, what is driving their apparent economic over-performance? And can they keep sustaining it?
🎞 TikTok: / tldrnews
🗣 Discord: tldrnews.co.uk...
💡 Got a Topic Suggestion? - forms.gle/mahE...
Support TLDR on Patreon: / tldrnews
Donate by PayPal: tldrnews.co.uk...
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
//////////////////////
1 - www.theguardia...
2 - www.nytimes.co...
3 - cepr.org/syste...
4 - www.ft.com/con...
5 - www.bbc.co.uk/...
6 - links.org.au/r...
7 - www.ft.com/con...
8 - tradingeconomi...
9 - en.wikipedia.o...
10 - www.intellinew...
11 - links.org.au/r...
12 - www.komersant....
13 - x.com/wartrans...
The "record low 2.3% unemployment" sounds good until you notice that there's just no one to work. Russia is experiencing an unprecedented workforce deficit due to both low birthrates and dead conscripts
Are you aware Russia has 150million people? How many Russians do you think have died in this war?
Nonsense ! You’ve never been to Russia much less worked there.
@@madoxxxx06and that's how u show ur ignorance reading demographics 😂. 140 million of mostly old (thus not at working age) in the biggest country by area means excessively under populated.
U learn this in geography level 1 in school 😂
@@jacobjorgenson9285 hahaha, how do you know that?
you forgot the brain drain.
Don't forget that the Soviet Union was reporting GDP growth trough the 80's and then just went bankrupt.
The USSR did indeed have impressive growth rates, but the GDP simply isn't a very good indicator actual wealth. Many goods in the USSR were terribly expensive due to low productivity, means the (state-owned) companies often had rather high revenues in relation to their actual output. In a free market economy they would simply have gone bankrupt, and many did after the fall of the Sowjet Union. We had the same issue here in Germany after the reunification: Many GDR companies did relatively well on paper, because there was no real competition, but their costs were way too high to survive in a free market.
But how did the Soviet Union get bankrupt? I don't understand how a country can become bankrupt. Did it stop collecting taxes in the 80's?
I have never really understood people who say that the Soviet Union collapsed because it became bankrupt.
It could be the cause of the collapse is nationalism. By the way, I'm not sure, I could be missing something. That's why I'm inquiring.
@@cinemaclips4497Oversimplified answer was USSR’s inability to adapt with change.
Changing from totalitarian system to partial democratic system meant political turmoil from opposition to old Communist regime. Changing from command economy to market economy meant instability with supply and demand. Afghanistan as a long war slowly eroded the belief of military superiority.
@@cinemaclips4497 Very simple. It could not service it's expenditures or in even simpler terms it spent more then it earned. Of course a nation can in some volume print money but that causes inflation and other problems and Soviet Union collapsed because it could not found its own state apparatus, nationalism had nothing to do with it. Nationalism was the cause for the collapse of Yugoslavia and everyone not born under a rock knew how that went.
@@NeovanGoth It wasn't so much due to low productivity but what was produced. The Soviets never put much thought into a market economy so having a strong civilian goods production never was a priority, the Soviets built things that built things (in short heavy industry) and machinery mostly focused on the military aspect. One of the first major inflations in the USSR was a paradox, people had money but there simply were not enough civilian produce to go around meaning there were very few things to spend money on. In Yugoslavia we joked that USSR had more tanks than loafs of bread.
As for state owned companies not being able to survive in a free market economy you would be surprised how many did and still do. Good management is good management no mater the system, although its easier to have good management in a system that isn't politically biased and suffers from bad leadership due to party protection. (even though we can see that kind of protection even in capitalism - The entire Housing bubble and Greek credit rating shenanigans by Goldman Sachs, very few court trials and a lot of the people responsible are still in upper echelons of world finance)
GDP is not an accurate measure of a wartime economy. If the half the production of Russia's economy is weapons and then they are burned in Ukraine. It will show up as a massive economic output. However the benefit of that output will never be realized.
It is like saying a car manufacturer is very successful because it produces a million cars a month. But then every single car is driven into a chasm before it gets sold.
True, it's a bit like natural disasters that are added as economic growth when in reality, it's having a negative impact on the economy as it's damage that needs to be repaired, in other words, resources are needed to fill that voids that otherwise wouldn't be needed.
It's the same with Russia and the war, on the surface it looks good for the economy because of all the military spending, but this is resources being diverted away from other social programs in Russia, then throw in the brain drain and how many Russians are being killed in the war, it's all bound to have a negative impact on the economy but it's hard to say by how much because the state is either not reporting or is manipulating the numbers.
A Tesla?
I wanted to say the same, but then again: what would be a good indicator?
There are many parts of GDP that don't directly translate into future growth: everything spent on entertainment, police, judicial system etc - will disappear. But it has an indirect role in keeping the rest of the economy stable. And you can say the same about army spending .
plus, when war is over demilitarize the industry toward the previous civilians output will be costly and will require time
Thumbs up. Same as building a bridge as national investment. All of a sudden the bridge collapse. What does it remain ? Just debts on the investment
I recently saw Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin, and it was fascinating to observe how media narratives can be shaped and distorted to serve specific agendas.
Indeed, the distortion of truth by the mainstream media is concerning; it's challenging to discern fact from fiction
The halting of gas flow into Europe has undoubtedly impacted living costs significantly.
Agreed, the economic repercussions are palpable, particularly for ordinary citizens
About how this will effect oil and gas prices and the stock market, have you all heard about Monica Mary Strigle? lady had predicted to an accuracy prices of oil on WTI and Brent Crude indexes, with the unfolding of events in the Russian-Ukranian war
Yes, just like Tom Lee I've heard she's been instrumental in elevating people's lifestyles by adeptly managing their portfolios.
With Russia's track record of telling lies, I don't understand why any credibility is given to the numbers they are providing right now, they have 0 motivation to be honest about it.
Glad to see this topic return to TLDR, hoping for more :)
No one really knows the big picture either. Most Russian state organizations, government corporations and their various subsidiaries often have an opaque budget structure, meaning there is way more money and assets compared to what actually goes into official statistics. There is also a huge grey zone and shadow economy, so even if the data was true-ish, it wouldn't paint an accurate picture.
@@paulkirjonen1226 I get your point that in general it's guesswork but that's not the elephant in the room.
The west doesn’t lie?? Russias reached high income status! Therye making money while europe is finished! This is just eu propaganda!
@@HypaxBE I agree. There is so much propaganda from both sides that reporting on this almost sounds like propaganda itself. The only real conclusion we can take from this, is that Russia might not struggling as much as we wanted, but they are struggling.
Everyone should have been aware that the sanctions would always take time to have an effect, we just wanted it to be faster.
Either way, I call BS on 99% of what Russia says, you dont go and tell your people to invest in having chickens in their backyard when the economy is going well.
It's all about their image and veneer of legitimacy, they play to our biases and most sources eat the propagandistic framing, you'd never find sources directly citing the Taliban, Kim Jong Um and other extremists, but the russians? They're dress in business suits, "are cold and calculating", they "have institutions in place", they measure the GDP and such, and on and on. Or as Chomsky would put it, there are "worthy" and "unworthy" victims, russians are deemed "worthy" and those in the middle east are not, that's why the shooting in the concert hall was deemed a tragedy but others in less "white" countries are usually ignored or justified
18% interest rates, 2.3% unemployment. Ya this economy is burning up
Can you please elaborate? I'm genuinely interested in what those stats indicate about the economy.
@@zetaforever4953 18% interest rates suggests crippling inflation and such a low unemployment rate indicates a critical labor shortage.
@@zetaforever4953 Not sure about the interest rates, I think they just mean that it's super expensive to borrow money, so no one does it, so there's no new investment, but idk.
And the employment rate I think is a problem in the sense that to grow your economy, you need some percentage of unemployed people who can start working in new jobs. If there are no people able to take on a new job, there can't be much economic growth. Dumb system tbh. But with all the demographic change going on we'll need to change something about this anyway I guess.
Not an expert in economics at all though. Maybe someone can confirm or correct me.
@@zetaforever4953The high interest rate is there to keep spending low to combat inflation and also to avoid running into shortages. if you are incentivized to keep your money in the bank (high rates of interests being paid) - then you would do that instead of increasing demand on the market; stoking inflation
also; because salaries are increasing it has the general effect of pushing up inflation through
a) companies costs are going up - therefore they have to increase prices and
b) because you have more money; you are increasing demand which also drives prices up
so thats one side: inflation is on the rise and the central bank tries to control it by offering higher rates
(however this has a limit but thats not the point now)
low unemployment: it means that there is a worker shortage in effect really. you have to factor in that not all jobs are where the people are (say you are unemployed in the middle of nowhere and there is a job 2000km away… you wont get that job) - but also: just because there is a job for say a doctor; our unemployed person might not be qualified for that role as she is a software developer.
so this low number suggest that everyone is working and the only people who are out of job either because they are not close to those jobs or not qualified. which means: you are running full employment
now why is that an issue? well to put simply: just because everyone has a job doesnt mean that every role is filled; meaning companies will compete for the people generally with higher salaries
which circles back to inflation
but even at that: even if there is work to be done; there isn’t enough people to do it. which means productivity will drop as people will leave if they are overworked or they demand more money - either forcing companies out of business or just not being able to deliver.
so here is where things turn bad for any economy
please note: the high interest rate and low unemployment is not the reason this happens; these are signs and consequences of a struggling economy (or soon to be struggling)
the fact that russia has to move people to the frontline just makes it worse because it further reduces the workforce
but their demand to supply the army drives up demand and prices
they will reach the point that you will not have people to either make weapons or to use them
its kind of a self eating snake
does it make it any clearer?
@solar0wind I mean if the NAIRU rate of unemployment is 2.3% then that's a good thing. NAIRU unemployment should be as low as possible. To address the original point in the question these stats are inexplicable as such a high interest rate would indicate massive economic growth. But what the original commenter probably means is that Putin is lying. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong
The IMF and World Bank use the numbers, presented by Rostat. No surprise their analysis will correspond closely with what Russia wants to paint as the picture.
Rhis is circular way of thinking.
Maybe that was a part that should not have been TLDR'd.
Generally I like this channel.
But this was a big miss.
The payment for recruits is in futures, they get paid at the end of the contract. If they die, effort is put in to mark them as missing or surrendered, so according to contract they do not have to pay them.
@@HaddedamThe contract they’re given is also extremely misleading because there is fine print that says they will serve indefinitely.
I couldn't believe it when he said that Russian inflation had fallen to 2.3%. I immediately checked for confirmation that the Russian federal interest rate was still 16% and it is. Why would they need such a ridiculously high interest rate if inflation is so low?
You are right, the IMF was saying Russia was going to grow by 2% back then. They were clearly using the wrong numbers because they fell short!!!
😂😂cry more please
Well using the propaganda numbers it looks good, but we really trust that a country with almost 20% interest rate has low inflation??
Higher interest rates results in lower inflation and the opposite is true.
Unemployment rate could be higher or lower depending on the determination of unemployment - eg: seasonal worker.
Lending rate to the government might be lower due to preferential rates.
@@teamjam2863higher interest rates helps to lower inflation, but they're that high because the bank recognizes that inflation is/will be an issue.
@@teamjam2863 higher interest rates are a weapon of fighting high inflation, you don't keep raising interest rates if you don't have that high inflation.
@@jorislal
While the what you said is true, you might want to evaluate it on the basis of a country that was combating inflation and has not yet re-adjusted the interest rate as well with the possibility of a spike due to the global economy.
Most likely also depending on Russian economic model - it might be beneficial for the state to keep it as high due to revenue earned from the interest rate.
The current rate may also not encourage higher inflation rate which is probably why it’s kept on for now.
The main thing to look at is how long it would take for the interest rate to be adjusted.
As per Russian data the inflation rate is about 7% way ahead of their expected 4% target meaning the inflation rate is high and them needed to reduce it via the interest rate.
@@teamjam2863 This comment confuses me. Why would the state earn revenue from high interest rates? High interest rates lead to increased cost of government borrowing, straining national budgets. The state is the one paying the interest, not receiving the interest.
You state that the IMF predict growth for Russia next year but of course they are using the figures given to them by the Russians .
You might also ask if the Russian economy is doing so well and inflation is at the rate they claim why are the interest rates now approaching 20%
You can ask yourself if the inflation is at the rate they claim in Western countries... I know that the prices have gone up way more than the inflation numbers... Some items have more than doubled within the last 3 years...
Hi, I found on a russian site, people debating on this. Increasing tax rate at 18% they admit de facto an inflation around 18%. Though they'll only admit worldwide only eight percent with a target for this year around 6.5%. You can find on the main web site of russia national bank
@@knudskoubo1090 Western countries data is transparent, Russia's isn't.
I dunno if you're just one of those people who comment before watching the whole video but inflation is going back up again and is definitely their biggest problem. But to some extent, it's to be expected since unemployement is so low and wages are rising. Hell, I wouldn't even mind that kind of inflation here if real wages were actually rising here as well.
@@knudskoubo1090I know the French’s INSEE agency method for calculating inflation is essentially a black box that they staunchly refuse to explain.
Personally I think they just mix everything and give a number that simply don’t mean much.
I wish TLDR would post more content on the Ukraine war.
It’s been overshadowed by the war in Gaza.
Well to be fair nothing major has happened on the battlefield in comparison to the other conflict
I'm sick and tired of hearing about Gaza tbh
@@nealrigga6969True but it’s still a relevant conflict
@@xander6522 boo hoo
@@tombo416 you're on a channel about European news in the comments speaking a European language. Sit down.
As a Nigerian I am in no position to mock another country’s economy so I won’t be taking part in this discussion
You don't have to declare your decision. This isn't an airport. haha
Nigeria has a close relationship with Russia sooooo it's kind of picking and choosing what you wanna give a hoot about lol
hi bro, do you have a PlayStation 5?
As a Nigerian you should be outspoken on all European shenanigan. They did a lot worse to Nigeria.
@@EJH783 Do it, just don't declare it. It's like throwing a tantrum before quitting Twitter. (No one quits Twitter!) Stick around!
The best way to describe the Russian economy right now is if a person with diabetes got his hands on tons of sweet candy and has a huge sugar crash and is hyped up to the max, like on steroids, so he feels fantastic at the moment. The problem lies in the long term - what happens when he runs out of sugar, dopamine goes down and health problems catch up with him. (The analogy taken from a podcast with a Russian economist)
did you feel smart when you wrote this comment? you managed to reduce national economics into sweets and diabetes. since you don't understand economics, but you understand sweets and diabetes, surely you must feel like a smart person now.
@@leetster6303 you said a whole lot of nothing and seem very triggered in all of your comments. Perhaps just stop reading the comment section and go listen to Putin telling ppl how amazing everything is going?!
@@leetster6303 Anyone who says russia is fine has no understanding of economics or is a complete idiot willing to believe a data from a nation who doesn't even honor their agreements and contracts.
@@leetster6303
Oh quit crying
Don't people with diabetes get ill if they consume too much sugar? Their body can't process it. That's why they need injections.
The amount of people that think GDP is a sign of a good ecconomy is too frequant. GDP is one figure in a much larger picture.
@JoeBlogs does a great job at showing this.
Exactly, because if you look at the UK's GDP, the majority of Brexiteers are claiming that Brexit is working but in reality its only British Gold Exports that contributed heavily to the GDP but does not benefit the working classes in the UK who are using Food Banks.
Before GDP was invented by an investigation ordered by US Congress in the 1930s (which warned that "GDP is not a measure of wealth creation"!) one looked at quantitative output of basic goods. Both steel output and number of graduated engineers are the same in Russia as in the USA, in spite of Russia having only 45% the population.
GDP describes the output of the economy. The value that was produced. It says nothing about the products that were burned in Ukraine without being sold. Russia is producing 100 new tanks every month. But they are made from the metal of the 100 tanks that was produced in the month before. That is not an actual GDP growth.
@@adam-k Well, Russia's public spending to GDP is significantly lower than the Western average. So you argue that it is Western economies whose GDP is overestimated. GDP makes sense on a free market where purchases are made out of free will, so that one can assume that the value of what is bought exceeds the value of the money being paid for it (value>price). But public expenditures are simlpy added to the GDP, with no regards to what if any value it creates.
@@adam-k One advantage that GDP has is that it's easy to calculate and easy to interpret what it means. Other metrics are quite a bit more challenging to measure and calculate, which makes them a lot more questionable then GDP data.
Please vary your outros more. I feel like I'm getting insane by hearing the same thing every single time so often.
fr
Meh, I always skip them anyways, no reason to carry on listening after they come on
Who watches those outros?!?! Like almost a quarter of the video is a stupid ad at the end. It has been like this for ages. Just skip it. Nobody cares about their Too Long crap, or Brilliant or whatever. Just skip it.
@@TheRealEtaoinShrdlu i listen to it at work so I cant always skip it. Maybe i should switch to browser youtube with sponsor block.
How bad in russian economy? Larger and larger spending on army and 3rd largest interest rates in the world tell us everything we need to know. They're going back to USSR in 1980s.
More like 70's.
More like 90s.
@@Haddedam if Afghanistan bankrupted the USSR we'll see what a war that costs more than 10 times that price per day will do to the smaller cousin of the USSR.
@@marcdc6809 I wouldn't say that the war in Afghanistan bankrupted the USSR - sure, it was one of the reasons but definitely not as impactful as some people make it out to be.
@@mabeSc the first world war bankrupted the tzar, this war will bankrupt the maffiosi-state, always something, Putin should have meddled with Kazakhstan in stead.
Vladimir Milov, an economist said the Russian economy is suffering massively and that the sanctions are working relatively well. He said that the speculation that the economy is just fine is just journalistic fiction.
Milov is also a political figure, part of the opposition, so it's hard to say how accurate that really is. The economy is definitely hurting, but the true extent of it is hard to mesure
It is like unemployed people who think they don't need to find a job until the government unemployment insurance stops paying. Russia's foreign currency reserves are dwindling. Russia draining their decades of savings on destroyed military equipment isn't a workable economic model in the medium-long term.
Economic sanctions are like land or sea mines in military. While you can travel around, they still limit movement and cause damage if triggered. Russia is circumventing them, but at the cost of delayed financial transactions from detours and risk of damage.
Elvira Nabiullina also been doing absolute cart wheels to keep the country afloat as it is, she also tried to resign from her position. 😅
Vladimir Milov is a joke. He and FRF dance on the ashes of Alexey Navalny. They’re not hurting our government with sanctions, they’re hurting us, the people. 😢
Military spending is te worst way how to boost your GDP. War is like throwing money out of window and counting it as a revenue.
It’s also internal military spending. US military spending partly helps since there are foreign military customers along with U.S. law enforcement. Russian military industry has fewer foreign buyers which means stale circulating money instead of fresh outside sources.
Throwing money out by bashing it over your enemies. Obviously military spending is bad and could be spent on better things but it has its purpose
I bet within the last 5 years you've said that war is good for the economy due to military spending. People are just flipping this narrative now that it's Russian military spending.
Real wages in Russia are up massively -- they've been growing faster than those in the US for a decade. That, to me, is one of the greatest indicators of economic prosperity: people are able to receive more goods and services for their work than they did the year before, and virtually everybody is working. Pretty much every person in Russia apart from a few pensioners, and the conscripted soldiers, of course, are materially better off than they were before the invasion of Ukraine.
So why US had so many wars in last 30 years?
Russian economy is booming in the same way as if we all started to break the glass of our house windows. Economy would start to boom, glass businesses would even becoming the most profitable business in the country...
It would boosts the economy, but how many windows can we smash before we all go broke and we all are left with buildings with smashed windows?
If any country borrowed billions and built tank munitions factories, its economy would grow - temporarily. Russia is burning through an enormous sovereign wealth fund rapidly - a fund that could have been invested in Russia for the benefit of its people. Whatever happens, the Russian people are going to have been losers - and not just in terms of their body count in Ukraine.
If you want to know when Putin started to prepare this war, you could do worse than look at when Russia's sovereign wealth fund began to be built up.
Probably it was pre-2008 invasion of georgia. The strange out of windows deaths started in 2017 thou.
So much preparation, so little effect in the war.
@@panzerofthelake506 that's for us, ignoramus observers. Strategy in military means a spam of years.
From your tank factory mention, there are fewer foreign militaries that are buying Russian weaponry. While Kremlin can temporarily keep military industries afloat, there is less outside money coming in. Russian military manufacturers are okay in short term, but may face financial difficulties in long term.
@@weirdo1060 Well, to be honest Russia needs the weapons that it is producing much more than other countries. We can speculate on whether or not Russian weapon sales are going to be lower in the long-term (post-war) but you can't really know. One could argue that, as Russia gained direct experience from the war in Ukraine, other countries might be even more interested in getting their troops trained by Russia on various weapon systems (and the same could be said about Ukraine).
The big issue with their economy now is that it is a giant bubble. They cannot do anything with the inflation - that much their own government has confessed officially (check recent financial assembly, when they have increased interest rates to 18%).
Moreover, there are numerous other small but important details. For example, increased company tax combined with insane interest rate can bankrupt a lot of businesses, which will furthermore negatively affect the possibility to fullfil demand. Or the fact that prices growth could be much more significant if not for literal price management from the government (businesses sell goods with much lower margin line just because government would fine them otherwise).
The bigger this bubble will grow - the more painful it will be when it bursts. Nabiullina already mentioned herself that this can be only fixed by recession.
GDP nowadays is hardly a sign of economic success. To see how they're really doing, we should look at other statistics as well as the situation of the ordinary russians. Prices have been rising steadily and the ruble still has a very low value and hasn't come back since the war started. The unemployment numbers mean nothing when everyone who was unemployed was sent to the war. And producing tanks just to send them to the frontlines adds to the GDP number but doesn't create wealth.
I like how you just took the number of contract's close to what Russian officials say, such as clown Medvedev
Yes, they are not drastically low, but it is not enough, while you did not say the origin of the 25,000, and only slightly emphasized how much lump sum and permanent payments have increased, especially in the regions
If the graph was shown, it would be clearly visible🤷🏻
They strongly do not want to mobilize, so they throw any money at it, and it still works moderately
Many people, even if they are Putinists, become aware, for example, of the obvious fact that there are no "contracts" in reality, and no one will return home until the end of the "operation"
Imagine how much better off the Russian people could have been without this war, had Russia invested all this cash into its industy and infrastructure.
But alas, battlefield stories are far more intersting than a ribbon cutting on a new strech of road or a bridge somewhere in the countryside.
well if you send of all the people from remote villages to the front lines you don't have to connect those villages with infrastructure anymore.
it's 4d chess, the oligarchs make boatloads of money from the war and the common people are kept ignorant about it, or send to the front so they can't spread the truth.
@@ChristiaanHWwell, there’s reportedly entire villages completely empty of men (only women and children), so that’s something
It was doing fairly well and it's economy peeked around 2008.. then lets say something heppen in 2008 that cause it to crash and keep crashing to this day.
Can be this applied to all nations in the world ? I mean imagine a world without war having a more pacific way to solve geopolitical issues, imagine what could the U.S do with all his 820 billions dollars put into military complex.
@@juanjorge751 : There is indeed a point to that. Although the issue is not the spending on a standing army, but engaging in wars.
So, if you said, "without the Iraq war", then you'd certainly be correct.
Apart from that, a global military presence actually helps the US economy.
Another aspect would be inefficiancies and corruption, within the military industrial complex. The US could probably save at least a quarter of the money, if they did some proper accounting and controlling.
Russia is of course far worse (in terms of corruption and waste), as the war exposed. Same applies to China.
I see today's editor is an always sunny fan.
Food shortage...
>> STARVATION
If only things were that simple... economy students would love it!
The war started 2014, not 2022.
really, you seem to know a lot about wars
@@HikingandWandering shouldn't you be in confession
@@HikingandWanderingIt is true that it started in 2014. Look it up on Wikipedia. It says that the conflict escalated in 2022.
@@HappyGuy-cn9po Its started in 2014 and lay down in that year with annexation of Crimea. Conflict in 2022 started from terms of "Destroying fascist government" to "Returning our borders from NATO". Its not simply escalation of one to another. Not to say that whole conflict in 2014 happened with pro-russian government in Ukraine.
One of the most important reasons Russian economy isn’t currently crippled is, ironically, sanctions. Many of those were very counterproductive. While they helped to decease the level of importing goods, exporting oil, as well as the cash inflow in the country, which is the basic aim of a sanction regime, sanctioned have granted the Russian government with pretty much the infinite amount of money. In previous years, people all throughout the country, but mostly oligarchs, moved their money to safety to western markets. Their corruption efforts were not appreciated in Russia, but given the corruption level, some news reports suggested that the outflow of money could be higher than 1trln$ per year. By limiting the money outflow from Russia via sanctions, western countries practically left no choice for these oligarchs as to keep their money in Russia, granting the government with a relatively infinite amount of financial support. This is the reason why salaries are growing - due to high migration there’s been a lack of professional working force, which is why companies use one resource that is in abundance to lure them in - money
Some Russian oligarch wealth is from foreign sources. While some oligarch money remains in Russia, foreign stocks, real estate and other property is frozen by opposition governments. Oligarch liquid wealth still exists, but is slowly depleting without replenishing.
@@weirdo1060 Their wealth is mostly in equities, such as the stock market. And while western countries stopped investing funds in the Russian markets, eastern countries keep buying it as it currently sells with a discount (given the financial flows didn’t change dramatically in the last several years due to the parallel import and the eastern investments). This is why the wealth of Russia's richest businessmen has increased by $24.29 billion since the beginning of this year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index published by Bloomberg, which, in particular, is calculated based on the value of company shares. These funds won’t get depleted. The western countries just need to adjust their sanction regime, because as of now this is the reason the EU money inflow slowed and money in Russia is present in abundance. So much so they increased the interest rate to 20% and, seemingly, the economy is still fine somehow
Arent that money just going to other countries like Saudi Arabia instead?
@@nenasiek It’s true that there are other storing and investment opportunities for rich people. If someone with money and power has a specific goal, sanctions wouldn’t be a problem. There’s also the crypto market, which allows transferring funds even to the West, figureheads that connect Russian markets with Western markets via the Eastern Bloc, and countries that have never blocked any transactions. BUT all of these have disadvantages. The crypto market I mentioned is very expensive due to commissions. Middle Eastern countries, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, currently adored by Russian oligarchs, aren’t as safe. The legal system is compromised, and the money wouldn’t be safer than in Russia itself. Additionally, money is usually stored in a safe haven, but not everyone wishes for these countries to be the place they grow old
Or, you could argue hat sanctions removed Western competition so domestic production can be profitable (but at higher prices).
I expect to see something similar with China in realm of chip design (EDA) software. And after that in 5-10 years they will ruin leading US (Cadence, Synopsys) and German (Siemens) companies.
Remember when Germany in the 30's was touted as having amazing economic growth, when in reality it was a basket case waiting for collapse if war hadn't broken out?
Same in USA
Not really -- if they hadn't gone to war they would have been pretty well-off economically. Their economy fell apart during the war mostly because they just didn't have the raw materials they needed to feed their people and fuel their war machine, especially oil. But before the war, they didn't have that massive and active war machine to fuel, and they were actually able to import oil in limited quantities.
It really wasn't...
Germany was desperate for natural resources, even for food.
@@BojanPeric-kq9et By the time they absorbed half of Poland, they had what they actually needed. The main thing they lacked was oil, and oil at that time wasn't really strictly necessary in large quantities -- they could have easily relied much more on coal than they did historically if they didn't need such a massively militarized economy. Not to mention Czechia and Austria had pretty decent sized oil reserves at the time, they just had to be found.
They did want/soft need more natural resources, but it wasn't really a hard constraint. Germany was already one of the wealthiest and most technologically advanced places on Earth, and they had the ability to trade off their manufactured goods at a premium.
The concern that Hitler had, as did many others at the time, was that as other countries moved forward technologically and economically, they wouldn't need Germany anymore, but Germany would still need them for resources.
That was largely a limitation of vision at the time. Many people still couldn't really wrap their heads around continually advancing technology and competitive advantages deepening over time.
Not gonna lie the conflict between those two countries that shall not be named in that unspecified region of the Middle East has taken attention away from Russia and Ukraine 💀
“Two countries”?? There’s only one and it’s flag is this: 🇵🇸
@@tombo416 lol, Isreal is not going anywhere anytime soon. Im not saying that that is good or bad. But the excistance of Isreal as a state is a fact.
Because western world is already supporting Ukraine. While they are playing 3 monkeys for Gazze. I mentioned this in another comment, As far as I could see, TLDR channel has put measly 2 videos about the conflict.
Israel and Palestine or Israel and Lebannon?
@@tombo416wonder why Egypt is also against Gaza
Wow!! "The longer the war goes on the more expensive it gets" great insight 😆
Good point! It costs more to get smuggled goods than using regular channels (under sanctions). The Kremlin had to increase financial signing bonuses for military volunteers since fewer want to serve.
The "fallen inflation" is actually caused by the way one measures inflation (year on year). There was a sharp spike in inflation in 2022, so in 2023 it looked like a drop. In order to keep the high inflation rate, there must've been another spike, but there wasn't. You can clearly see that when looking at the month on month inflation in Russia. It is steadily increasing, and there wasn't any drop in inflation.
You can also compare the prices now to the prices before the war, and they'd be roughly 26% higher.
as a Russian, I must say that now russians aren't able to buy semi-decent cars or real estate unless you're a soldier or top 1% earner. Other expenses have risen, but the salaries did as well
as a russian, i say - eggs, kefir rose by 60% price since 2022. is this normal? USD can not be obtained in banks and rate of exchanged is determined personally by Putin ( not more than 100rur). Prices for flats are rising every 6 months and are half of pension. Lonely pensioner started selling their aparments already. It is just shambles.
As Belgian, I do not know wath to answer...
On the one hand, economic crisis in russia is a good news. Because we want to force russia to go back home and normalize relations woth neighborhood, including stop to threat us of neclear apocalypse ebery week.
On the other hand, we are not foghting russian people but the crazyness of government.
Unfortunately, it remain impossible to totally dostinguish poeple from their government.
At the end, we all wish russia come back to normality, doing business with you, and respect sovereignty and integrity of others.
Good luck russian poeple. Go back home, and stay safe.
I think there's a tendency for analysts to focus on the winners of the Russian war economy, and ignore the losers.
Let’a return the USSR where you weren’t poor.
@@Xylene.T A very naive view. As a Russian I declare that I am also against war and peace in the world. But the war will not end until NATO moves far away from Russia. It is not about poverty or the USSR.
A wartime economy does these things, for a while. Needing recruits from anywhere, NK's crappy shells, a rust bucket oil delivery system for minimal profit, all suggest big issues with production and manpower
As long as they can produce more materiel than the west (which they do) and have more men than Ukraine (which they do) then there's no issue.
@@imrobertgrayson Materiel and manpower are only part of equation. Domestic discontent and international standing also apply. Soviet Union was in Afghanistan for a decade, but still withdrew
@@weirdo1060 Two completely different wars. If the Soviet Union wants to rerun the war in Afghanistan it will try and occupy western Ukraine. It won't do that however, as Putin has no interest in conquering all of Ukraine. This war is about destroying Ukraine's ability to fight to prevent it from joining NATO. Hence why we're seeing a war of attrition, where production capacity and manpower are absolutely critical. Ukraine has a severe disadvantage on both fronts, hence why it is in the process of collapsing.
@@weirdo1060 Soviet Union withdraw and Afghanistan stood against US supported terrorists for almost 4 years without anyone's help (even ammo). US fled from Afghanistan and everything crumbled even escape was finished.
As a Russian, I confirm everything that has been said. The growth of GDP is due to growth in the military sector, while civilian industries are falling or growing weakly. The Ministry of Defense is offering huge sums for signing a contract for military service, because people are running out. An acute labor shortage is hitting the military sector as well. Most importantly, the "piggy bank", as the national welfare fund is called in our country, has almost dried up. The budget is in deficit, and when the money in the reserve runs out, there will simply be no money for war. If you do not believe the words of Western media, just watch Russian economic forums. Surprisingly, they tell the truth there (where Putin does not speak). I especially recommend watching the recent meeting of the Bank of Russia. They said everything there to dispel doubts about the Russian economy
Did you say "Ecomoney"... I love it
MY CS servers haven't been this empty since a special operation drafted half the playerbase.
The Russian economy is contingent upon natural resource revenues as this behemoth sector props up the lob-sided economy. Though it does not shrink as expected, the Russian economy is still wobbling.
At least there are different narratives allowed in the west. Not like in Russia...
If you try to exerce freedom of speech in Moscow, you're not insured to live long, nore free.
Russia having to increase payments to recruits is not evidence they are running out of men. It could be evidence they are out of volunteers at that price point.
Question is, can they raise that price point much further?
@@madtechnocrat9234 They could. that is a political question right now.
@@Ben..... Why would you say that's a political question? Whether question is political or not does not mean it can't be tackled can it?
Russia's current problems. I'll try to list them, but they are all interdependent.
1. Labor market. There is a long coming demography issue, now multiplied by the war - 700K are on the front, 500K-1M left due to them being against Putin, huge numbers moved from consumer businesses to the military production sector, because pay is much higher there.
2. Growth: all productivity increase is in the military sector, consumer sector is at least stagnating.
3. Inflation. Enormous river of cash is flowing into the military production sector and to the soldiers and their families, driving demand for consumer goods. But imports are limited, consumer business are also forced to pay more competitive wages (compared to military stuff), all driving inflation.
4. CB base rate and investments. Russia lost access to global financial markets, and there's no "long" money internally in the economy. Plus, how can Russian businesses invest if they are not sure what will happen in a year. Government investments are also limited by growing inflation and high cost of borrowing - federal loan bonds rate is also growing and the finance ministry is worried that interest payments will be unsustainable. And of course the war spending is a priority.
5. Logistics. Forced to stop the trade with EU and reorient to China, Russia has to deliver goods by Trans-Siberian railroad, which is now loaded to full capacity.
6. International payments. Russia is still highly dependent on imports and exports, but it's getting harder and harder to transact for them. This is a very urgent issue, something like 80% of payments to China don't go through right now. Some officials are considering using crypto.
I certainly forgot something, but situation looks hopeless, recession is almost guaranteed, deep crisis is highly probable. Not tomorrow, but in the next 6-18 month, maybe more.
Source: I am a ru speaker from one of the Baltic states, and I follow Russian official sources closely.
Recommendation: don't read the news, they are painting a pretty picture. Read the official press releases by the Central Bank and Finance Ministry. Especially look at the press conferences by CB head, Elvira Nabiullina. She is highly competent and talks about problems without sugar coating them.
If you are willing to do the translation, then listen to Sergei Aleksashenko, Vladimir Milov, Igor Lipsic - all highly competent economists previously involved in the government, but for at least a decade they are out and are opposing Putin.
Also there's Sergey Guriyev, he's a former chief economist at EBRD, now provost at Science Po, and soon he will be the dean of London Business School. Also was forced to immigrate a decade ago. He rarely gives interviews in English, but when he does they are very informative. Also he has a channel here on YT in Russian.
Russia brags about gdp and low employment, cause there are the only things that looks good.
Gdp is boosted by military spending.Most countries after war has big drop in gdp.
Unemployment is low cause: low birthrate, conscription, Russian fleeing Russia and no new immigration.
The other problems are: huge debts in private small/medium companies, huge credit rates for people from banks, dependency om China, lower income from selling resources, lack of new technology and increased criminal activities.
Russia is getting weaker and weaker. They are still quite dangerous and can run this war till probably 2026 or 2027 , if west will help Ukraine untill then, Russia will fall.
exactly,
if you have an unemployment rate of 20% and then un-alive 18% of your working age population you end up with an unemployment rate of 2%. doesn't mean the country has becoem a better place.
or if you divert money from welfare to war making and take out loans to boost that war making, your GDP will be higher than before.
but it doesn't mean life of the people has become better.
yes on paper Russia is doing great, but if you look at where the grow comes from and the costs it carries you find out that no, the country is becoming more worse by the week.
this is exactly why i dislike and distrust news nowadays. they either give an incomplete picture or they only use the data that supports their belief (or the agenda they want to push).
you have to follow several news outlets and then stitch together the stories to get the complete picture. but most people watch one outlet and think that's the whole truth.
criminal activity reduced since 2022 thanks to Wagner. And i do not believe that Ukraine's manpower will hold till 2026 - West dooms Ukraine for Paraguay fate of 1870s when the country lost up to 50% of male population.
Keep waiting, fellow.
@@vladimirgineyev922 Opposite actually. Wagner recruited people who were already in prison. They were unable to commit crimes due to being behind bars. While some Wagner mercenaries are dead, some returned home with PTSD and weak support system. There are reports of crime increases due to those who cannot find civilian work due to conviction despite their service in Ukraine.
Ukraine won't last that long and China dependency empowers China immensely.
The "good" numbers are from Rostat. Everyone else sees other data. Those depending on data from Rostat will be surprised one day
Generally I like TLDR but quoting Rosstat’s inflation numbers is a joke. I work on economic policy in Australia and some economists estimate it is higher than 60%.
Could you provide the reports?
And for economists it is normal to count naked girls with webcams are part of GDP. By same serious economists, Netflix is worth more than Rossatom. The same company which can produce some nuclear fuel types that even US imported them AFTER US imposed sanctions on Russia.
Inflation is bonkers. Everything is getting more expensive by the day. And yet, no payment increases whatsoever.
They're hooked on military spending and a war economy. Meanwhile, that'll end eventually.
Good examples include recession in US after WW2 and economic collapse in Soviet Union after Afghanistan.
@@weirdo1060not much of good examples, especially when the US had already recovered within months while the USSR not effected Russia, main reason the Union existed, but it's neighboring countries and former Warsaw Pact members they had under their iron thumb
@@just_a_casual_viewer better examples are British after ww2, they recovered slower than Germany.
Russia is not in war economy, and i am don't think they can even do that.
They would collapse very quickly. Russia is rather balancing in this akward state of militarised-civilian economy.
@@madtechnocrat9234 that is a war economy, even if it's low grade
Your graph is wrong at 3:49. The graph shows month on month inflation rates not year on year.
They don't give a fuxk.
By all accounts, (see Russian Dude and Inside Russia) to name just a couple, true inflation is over 30%
This.
What russia says and what is the reality are two completely different things that have no connection between one another.
You can check value of ruble on google and assume everything is perfect. You will never find any actual russian exchange market trading in prices like that.
30% is a number I easily agree with, food'd gotten about this more expensive since the last year
Yeah no way they have 2% inflation yet 18% interest rates. This video just decided to believe Russian numbers for some reason.
Saying the Russia's economy is growing by 3.6% in 2023 completely ignores the fact the Russian military spending relative to GDP increased from 5.6% to 10.2%. If you disregard military spending the economy shrunk by an additional 2% in 2023. You cannot project a 3.1% growth based on these numbers solely because they are driven by Government spending in a sector that does not grow the economy. This is all under the assumption Russia isn't lying about their economic numbers already, which considering how honest Russia is about everything else should be heavily doubted. The fact major economic institutions just uncritically accept these figures is utterly baffling and is a major reason why people think sanctions don't work when they so obviously do.
Well, they have a 18% basic interest rate. That tells you something.
One obvious reason is to reduce inflation. Another reason may be to pressure people into buying government bonds to keep money in treasury.
@@weirdo1060 I know, but that means above all that the economy is less productive, meaning, less rich.
@@davisoaresalves5179 👍
One note: "Faster than any other developed economy" is a misnomer. Russia is not a developed economy. Its still a vastly extraction based economy, which requires no development at all. Just the ability to say "Okay, you can have those resources for X." Developed economies do value adding processes and services first and foremost.
Maybe, Russia is recruiting enough soldiers to keep up with their losses, but there is a big question mark over their quality, and how long can they keep it up.
Western news media claim new Russian recruits only get two weeks of training when regular forces get between eight to ten. Russia also hires foreign mercenaries and they allegedly don't get any language instruction during military training.
I live in Russia and I was already living here before the war. In general the quality of life has only been improving for yeara and I have nothing to complain except that airline tickets to other countries are way more expensive now.
The country is extremely secure. Nobody is gonna rob you like often happens you know where.
Military spending does impact GDP massively, the numbers from WW2 showed that.
The German GDP for 1944 was the highest ever seen at the time, of course no one now would consider the German economy in 1944 healthy.
Additionally, Ukraines GDP has also been rising.
We all forgetting the u.s growth. It was 10% year on year. Grew from around 100 billion to over 300 billion. Monumental growth.
You say it has fiscal room, but that room is shrinking, whilst it had a substantial war chest, the liquidity of that war chest is also in question.
that room is shrinking but at least there is room. ukraine has no room whatsoever. they are fully dependent on donations from the west with increasing frequency. i say donations but they are actually loans. the aftermath of this on ukraines economy will be so bad and i feel sorry for the ukranians. but its clear that time on is on russias side. russia is yet to truly suffer economically from this war whilst ukraine has been suffering from day 1. who do you think can continue this for longer?
@@leetster6303 it also depends on the future,
when the war ends Russia will still be alone, whether it's able to steal territory from Ukraine or not. so it will be hard for them to overcome the damage done by the war.
and the more time that passes the less fossil fuel the West buys from Russia. so Russia's income will fall further and further.
Ukraine on the other hand has a bad time now, during the war. but the West has already pledged and allocated tens of billions to help in the rebuilding efforts of Ukraine.
and if Ukraine is able to decidedly win the war they can expect war reparations from Russia too. (even if Russia doesn't want to pay those, the West will impound Russian assets and use them to pay for it)
and Ukraine has a long list of friends that will want to help Ukraine get back on their feet.
add to that that there is a good chance of Ukraine becoming a NATO member after the war. and further down the line an EU member, even if they just become official EU candidates they enter a period where they get financial aid from the EU to get their country in line with the values of the EU.
so there is a lot of help standing by to help Ukraine build back up.
but we have to wait to see how the war ends, before we know how we can/will help.
@@leetster6303 Ukraine has room, that room is based on those "donations" you're referring to. The EU will help Ukraine. I find it hard to believe the west will want the world seeing the war ending and Ukraine turning into a wasteland (economically speaking). That was look horrible for the west. Time is not on the side of either side, Russia's national wealth fund is drying up and they're losing about 1k men per day. Ukraine can continue this for longer if the west pours more money in. Either way, in reality, time is in neither of their sides and they're both looking at a future of decline. I just have more confidence in the west putting some of the economical pressure on their backs for Ukraine. Russia doesn't have and will not have the same level of support.
@@baramis575 the moment those donations stop, ukraine will collapse. and they are not donations, they are loans. the west will expect something in return down the line and ukraine will not be able to provide. this war, and its consequences will be felt for decades by ukraine. russia on the other hand, can continue to fight for several more years before it becomes "too expensive". and even then, a nation like russia has no problem finding the funds for a war of this size continuously. time is most definitely on russia's side. any knowledgable person on the subject will tell you that. ukraine, donations or no donations, cannot keep up the fight. its not a matter of money but the will of the people. whilst on the other side, the russians wake up every morning, forgetting they are at war because of how little it even affects them.
now when it comes to true numbers neither you or me know how many people are dying or how much money there is or is being used up. but common sense favours the side NOT reliant on third parties for support. Russia is fighting this war without other's support. this means they know what they are capable of. they know how much they can continue fighting and how much they are willing to lose. ukraine is fully reliant on the west to decide how much they are willing to send to ukraine, therefore, ukraine cannot accurately determine what their capabilities are going to be long-term. with that added factor of uncertainty, they cannot accurately aim towards a winning strategy because they cannot count resources that they do not have. russia knows what it has, and what it will have in a month and what it will have in a year... as long as production and casualty trends stay the same. therefore they can plan long-term. that's why time favours russia.
@@leetster6303 Nah, Ukraine is too crucial to the west at this point, they'll get trillions of investment dollars (and euros) from the west in the decade after the war.
Why GDP is a blunt tool for a war economy is because of the very point raised about the output being destroyed. I mean a payment to a war widow counts towards GDP.
I mean the fact that Russia is paying at least twice the market price for spare aviation parts still shows up in GDP but does mean a draining of economic resources. Russia can carry on going but at what cost and when does that cost become unbearable for enough powerful people?
As time passes, and Russia misses out on technological imports, things will get worst.
@Keln02 It doesnt because it moves the biggest black markets of the world together with the chinese. There is actually more products in a russian online megastore than in some EU countries.
You can take a look on videos of some Russian stores. They have beer brands just like in Serbia. And these videos are long after sanctions were imposed and beer can't stay consumable for 1-1.5 years.
Sanctions are not as affective as envisioned because contrary to popular belief the US and european union do not run the world economy and while lowering export prices and increasing import prices Russia just contineus to participate in the international economy regardless of sanctions just with countries like: China, India, Indonesia, Türkiye and Pakistan instead of the west.
Asia today accounts for two-thirds of the total real global economy and makes 83% of everything on earth. And has about 60% of the global population and total global wealth. The west is a like a pimple that's getting smaller each year!
A dumb person would give up. A smart person would use it as an excuse for more sanctions.
rise before a catastrophic fall
Never forget that taxes in dictatorships are more expensive than in democracies because you may not have to pay, but you have to pay with your soul.
Or by lobbying, but that is not corruption, that is democracy in envelops.
Russian Central bank interest rate - 18%
Exactly! That tells you that the economy can’t be doing that well. That’s an absolutely insane interest rate ! It implies that real inflation is also insane
Twofold reasons…first is to reduce Russian inflation which may be higher than the Kremlin claims. Second is to pressure people into buying government bonds so that money stays in Russia instead of going to foreign governments or private businesses.
Putin: Lying is the foundation of success!
I had no idea he was a Tory. Makes sense though.
Unlike, let's see: Bill Clinton, Blair, Zelensky, Sarkozy, Obama, Trump, again Clinton but Hillary, Biden... So what is your great news/insight?
At 1:50, it should be noted that World Bank and IMF numbers usually support Rostat’s numbers…because the World Bank and IMF base their estimates on Rostat numbers. Garbage in, garbage out.
I generally really like this channel, but this is a huge oversight.
I find it hard to believe that a country, where almost A MILLION young men (and women) fled conscription and those that stayed are dying by the hundreds if not thousands daily would be doing fine. Not to mention Russia's low birth rates from the last 30 years isn't painting a bright future for Russia.
According to Russia their economy is amazing, I mean why should they lie? right?
Cause they want more effective sanctions, clearly.
I travelled in New York, I have seen lots of homeless dudes and I am questioning the real unemployment rate of U$.
Everywhere a lot of homeless...
When you can just make up numbers it's easy to have a strong economy in any situation.
When you count lawyer firms as part of GDP, it is very easy to have huge one.
I feel Like the Problem is that a lot of people are very focused on just one or two stats and try to derive the entire economic situation of a country from that. GDP is in my opinion a way overblown stat, since any country can easily increase it by increasing government spending. The much more interesting parts, in my opinion, are the national deficit, the foreign currency reserve and trade surplus. These are actual indicators how long Russia can keep going without having to spend massive amounts on interest, since nobody wants to lend them money, or resorting to extrem measures like printing huge amounts of money.
GDP is similar to present day gross sales for a private business. Like you mention, internal expenses, liabilities and future sales projections also matter using the business analogy.
2:50 economic equality has declined because poorer workers have the greatest increase in real income ... ?
I believe he said inequality, but it was difficult to hear because he's British and drops half the letters :P
@@jakalordarkblood4331haha, I don't think so, you say the "ine" part of inequality in full in British English.
Or maybe this was a joke that just went over my head..
@@Jaipeesh He did say it, it was just almost inaudible. Mostly was making a joke on the Bri*ish
Every time Putin mentions peace talks, his top request is getting rid of sanctions immediately, clearly they're doing something.
Really ? It's the 1st time I've heard about it. All the time, the internet and paper media would only say Russia wants the 4 regions and Crimea to end the war.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
this all controversy about russian economy sheds light of the weakness of these indicators. like every statistical tool it is simply math. if the user is unable or unwilling to justify the weight and relevance of the number the feeds into the equation, .he final output will lose interpretability. thats the case with the IMF guys and many other self-claimed experts.
I love TLDR news. it helps me know what happens in the world consistently daily.
It's alright. It's really plain and predictable compared to other content creators.
@@robertbones326 correct! That is why the channel subscribers just keep growing. Now 800k+, soon 1 million.
@@Esquera123
There are fan pages on Facebook with 1 million followers.
I mean anyone else thinking low unemployment may have something to do with mandatory conscription and a steady flow of openings on the front line?
Actually, it is not very well known in Western countries, but Russia imports workers from former Soviet republics, various stans. And these numbers are huge.
And if you actually thought about that, Russian military would have to draft millions of people (ever heard about contract Russian army? of course you haven't). And there is simple question: if Russian military has few millions men ad some women, what stops them from steamrolling Ukraine? Lack of manpower?
Инфляция рекордная ещё с 2014 года. Производители стали уменьшать упаковку, а цену повышать. Примерно такое сейчас происходит на западе. Но даже не это главное, вы не представляете как сложно жить в стране, где тебя за репост или за лайк просто посадят. И отвечу так, никто из моего окружения никогда не голосовал за путина и ему подобных. Мы живем в диктатуре. Цените свою свободу, пока у вас она есть.
В Англии за репосты чаще сажают, да и значительная часть европейских стран монархии.Ты а какой свободе говоришь?!
Italy’s economy grew more than all other entente states during WW1, but if you see what happened as soon as the conflict ended… well, let’s just say the growth was misleading
Never underestimate Russian persistence... or stupidity. Sometimes they're the same thing.
Contrary to what you are saying there were not many unemployed young men in Russia. They were employed, but were paid about $300 a month at their jobs (yes, three hundreds dollars a month). Many of them had huge debtd. Then they were offered a military job with an 8 times higher salary. Additionaly in case of being killed in action their families would receive a lump sum higher than this guy could cumulatively make during his entire lifetime. Of course poor men (sometimes as old as 60 years old) went to war.
Ukrainian cupcakes for all russian children!
Russia is running out of men who want to be contract soldiers. Strangely enough, US has similar problem. Question is: how is that possible?
Great
Let's not forget that Russia also claims to have destroyed Ukrainian military equipment (tanks, Himars, planes etc.) up to ten times the number Ukraine actually ever had in possession.
Also, Russias GDP is smaller than Italy and might soon be smaller than Mexico. Just for understanding the economical dimensions we're speaking of.
Thank you for the content!! All we need is the right
advice on how to invest in crypto and we will be set
for life, made $68,000 profit from trading last
month regardless of how bad it gets on the economy
Ashley Anderson's crypto knowledge is like a secret
recipe for success
YES!!! that's exactly her name (Mrs Ashley
Anderson) So many people have recommended
highly about her and I'm just starting with her
from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺
I don' t really blame people who panic. lack of
information can be a big hurdle. I've been
making more than $21k passively by just
investing through an advisor, and I don't have
to do much work Inflation or no inflation, my
finances remain secure. So I really don't blame
people who panic
Same here I believe the Bitcoin ETF approval
will be a life-changing opportunity for us, with
my current portfolio of $108,000 from my
investment with my financial advisor<
Ashley Anderson>I agree with you
Please educate me I've come across this
before. How can I get to her, please?
When you are talking about the war you must show all numbers in comparison. How is Ukrainian economy doing, how many new recruits are they able to attract per month, how much they are getting paid and ultimately how many days can Ukraine last without any western aid. Russia is running out of “something” is a broken record at that point, a wishful thinking with carefully cherrypicked data to support the argument.
brace yourselves. Rusbots incoming in the comment section.
Russian bot is here! FEAR!
Inflation in Russia is 9%, not 2 %. Go check the numbers.
it more likely around 50% like I heard.....the interest rate at 18% suggest it might be even more
As Russia 🇷🇺 are trading with dprk 🇰🇵 china 🇨🇳 Iran 🇮🇷 India 🇮🇳
And sophisticated shell companies are supplying Russia… no wonder they are fine
This is why sanctions never work. The more countries you sanction, the more they’ll just trade with each other and create a separate ecosystem
Не забывай про посредников в Казахстане, Армении и прочих еще + - дружественных странах
@@el.k9776doesn’t Armenia strongly dislike you guys right now?
@@tombo416 some still like us... and I cannot comprehend why
@@tombo416 Yes, but that does not stop them from trading goods
Should the chart at 2:59 say "Q2 2024" rather than "2022"? It's breaking my brain if this chart is truly referring to inverse time!?
Nooo, you're supposed to collapse.
The economy: 🗿
They have an inflation rate like 3x France or U.K.’s rate despite having really high interest rates.
1:46. Institutions like the IMF, World Bank and UN have it as their main policy to follow the statistics that the nation publishes. So they are mostly in sync with the Russian statistics bureau by definition.
Your point holds no water.
slava ukraini
Russia has focused on becoming more self-sufficient by increasing domestic production of goods, sourcing from BRICS nations, and selling its gas to its BRICS partners unlike western countries outsourcing everything to China.
Do you remember when these guys were saying in August 2022 that Russia was running out of ammo and weapons, that they were sending the last men to the front, unarmed and with no possibility of recovering? Well... now it was time for another video like this. They will eventually be right, after 20 attempts perhaps... 🤣🤣🤣
And yet Russia had to draft conscripts, release prisoners and recruit people from poorer foreign countries. It clearly is not finding it easy to maintain the number of troops.
Too simplified check out with Joe Bloggs. He gets down to the nitty gritty.
Real inflation in Russia, calculated by the "Romir" agency based on actual shopping receipts, is about 30% and rising.
2024-7-3 World Bank upgraded Russia to a 'high-income country'
Russia's economy is now classified as high-income by the World Bank.
Russia's GDP grew 3.6% in 2023, with trade and financial sectors rebounding.
I'll say it right here: if something doesn't change in the next 18 to 24 months, we'll see the Russian military start drafting women. It will be for administrative jobs at first, then support jobs, but eventually they'll start showing up on the front. And they'll tie it to birth rates: any woman 29 years of age or older, without children, will be eligible for the draft. Women with children (or pregnant) will be exempt. That's how they'll try to handle this.
scary thought.....who is gonna pay the 40 million pension takers that aint working in RUSSIA, where is the money coming from for THEM, if men die and women are drafted, who is sTILL working, children?
There are western news stories about Wagner and Russian women recruiting female convicts to serve in Ukraine as support personnel. We shall see if WW2 style draft comes next year.
Military spending doesn't create wealth. When the money that goes to the poor people, for entering the Military, would be given to the poor people for free, it would have a better effect. Most of them would start a business and grow their capital instead of living in poverty. That would create wealth, not weapons that are made for destruction.
"We have a standard set of things we do to mitigate things for a while when things are bad. These sanctions will obviously work immediately because, um, reasons.." Every time. They never seem to learn that sanctions won't bite until the standard mitigating tricks for a rough economy are exhausted.
Russia has taken billions from its super fund, and the government is subsiding borrowing with lower interest rates. That's finite.
This means Russia could afford a 10 year Russo-Ukraine war.