Eurovision 2024: Semi-Final 1 Qualifiers Prediction Based on Data!
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- čas přidán 12. 05. 2024
- Who will qualify based on data? In this video I will breakdown to you a prediction made from data of past 5 Eurovisions where public could vote. If we can believe such a voting is always a lottery, until its proven right or wrong.
I was curious how much neighbour voting and diasporas affecting the voting and found out much more interesting data which shows patterns in so many viewers voting habits. It is also a little bit scary if it accurate enough.
Those results are interpreted to you in detail which is just enough for CZcams format so I hope you will enjoy such Eurovision nerdy video and give me some feedback too!
#eurovision2024 #eurovision
INTRODUCTION - 00:00
COUNTRIES VOTING PATTERNS - 05:25
VOTING PREDICTION COUNTRY BY COUNTRY - 22:47
RESULTS - 33:37
SUMMARY - 41:07
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Eurovision is my passion. Eurovision was my work and I am still gladly part of the professional community of this project. I started at Eurovision 2016 as Czech Head of Delegation. Such a Eurovision story! Form Eurovision in Sweden I went to antoher ESC experience. Kiiv 2017 Eurovision. This was my first and last failiur. Sometimes you need to learn trough losing even it is not plasant. We ended up 13 in the semifinal, second best score of Eurovision Czechia back then. But after this we established ESCZ national selection format. It was mostly held online. Because of this we found Mikolas Josef who went 6th at Eurovision 2018 in Portugal. Than 11th with Lake Malawi, at Eurovision 2019 in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Eurovision story is crazy. After finding all candidates and songs (-1) for ESCZ 2020 I resigned and left the television for working freelance.
Not to stop being part of Eurovision, I created this channel as I have an urge not to do just Eurovision Reactions from a different perspective. But also to do national selection reactions, watch others how they do their craft and also give a different approach for Eurovision fans.
I am very glad was part of many eurovision juries. Mostly in national selection and since 2017 I was in MGP Norway, Eurovision Malta, UMK national selection Finland. Juror in Melodifestivalen 2016. Biggest national selection. Also helped Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision Estonia, Eurovision Azerbaijan and many others.
Just amazing to be part of this community, so check my Humans of Eurovision, check my Eurovision reaction videos.
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Rest of the world has to help Portugal - all those South Americans.
I did my part.
@@CoxaBranca Well done.
Your prediction is the same as mine 😄 I hope we're both proven wrong about Luxembourg though, because I have only one wish when it comes to this semi. And that is that Luxembourg makes it to the final.
Really like their song and I am so happy they're back at Eurovision that I want them to stay in the competition. A qualification would certainly help when it comes to that, I think.
Fascinating! And at the same time sobering.
and scary
This is a great technic for predicting results. And it's going to be tested. I don't think you can predict the exact number of points but the basic tendencies can surely be deciphered. I'm most interested in finding out the margin of error. But if your predictions are spot on, it is indeed depressing and scary. Keep up the great job!
I am curious and will go back here after results 😅 i must say I can be biased towards my country (if I believe its good) but towards others I personally don’t think I am. I like different countries every year 😅 but definitely agree on more and more “joke” songs will be sent due to lack of jury vote which will be sad.. specially considering there isn’t a cash award for Eurovision winners. In general it should be all about promoting best artists and songs of a country
Croatia winner ❤❤❤
Thank you ever so much for the work you have done. This is the analysis based on voting patterns/data that counts. Super👏!
The neighbourly voting is annoying. Still, also in the jury voting, you can almost guess where the top 3 points go - and in which order. What to do about it, I don't know.
in jury vote its a bit different also when 26 countries are in, its something else
but thx very much for your support!!! ❤️🙏
I think Portugal will give big points to Serbia,they love that kind of songs
might be
Its a tough semi to call:
I think sure qualifiers are: ukraine,lithuania,serbia,croatia,Luxembourg.
With the rest of the countries all with a chance
Sadly most votes are not based on the quality of the song or artist. I would say 70% of the tele votes are based on diaspora and neighbourhood principles. 10% country's reputation, 10% artist's likability and 10% the live performance and the song.
it is hard to tell 100%, its the public choice, which is whatever what makes you feel something. This is ok. The issue is not public voting, diasporas or neighbours, this is frankly logical. Issue is there is no counter. No balance.
I hope you are not right.
But you did convince me that they should bring the jury back to the semis. So many countries just chose the most fun entry they had... I don't like that approach at all.
I also hope this is a completely missinterpreted 😂
The Cypriot singer is again from Australia this year (they have a big Greek/Cypriot diaspora). They gave Andrew 10 pts last year. You have them giving Silia only 3 pts this year. I think it will be higher.
this is what I say in the begining - nationality or history with some country can mix the point but if I am searching for every single little detail, I would not be able to start with this. Maybe I will update it before contest
Portugese diaspora in luxembourg means only 12p to Portugal. Why would Portugal give 12p to luxembourg. Would make sense if there were people from luxembourg in Portugal.
with this you are absolutrly right, I just kept it there as only what can do a difference is less points for luxembourg ... but you're probably right, why would they vote for the country
But it would not surprise me if portugal gives some points maybe 6p because of the reason you mentioned. @@JanBors
Serbia and neighbor voting. there are few reasons, if Montenegro competes, there are huge percentage of Serbs who have MNE origin (if MNE sings in Serbian/Montenegrin there is already double chance that MNE will get 12 or 10 points). N Macedonia when competes aim for Serbian votes by pre Eurovision campaign in Serbia, sometimes they send well known artists in Serbia (Tamara Todevska for example). Croatia has huge chance to get our 12 or 10 points when send popular artist in Serbia (LET 3 is huge here), plus if they sing in Croatian which is basically same language as Serbian, Croatian music is extremely popular here. Albania can get decent points from Serbia specially because of our local Albanians. Italian music, Sanremo festival have tons of fans here so Italy will always get some points by default. I am curious how will our new Russian immigrants vote. I wouldnt be surprised if Ukraine get huge votes from them as they are anti war Russians. You can count on significant public votes from Serbia to fun Finnish entry/Kaarja got 10 pts in semi final from us. I predict this year it will be CRO 12, FIN 10, CYP 8, SLO 7, UKR 6
@@james-angel i really dont know. it depends who is in jury. i think ukr will get quite, slovenia too, portugal, croatia... i think finland will get much from our public though
@@james-angel i will have to listen all songs again. you are right though Slo seems as great vocalist and i think she has Serb connections or someone who wrote the song has. I guess our jury 12 will be Ukr, Cro or Slo. where you from?
@@james-angel pozdrav za Sloveniju i Hrvatsku
Who is coming back here later tonight to roast Jan's predictions?
you mean data prediction 😂 I will be the first one gladly :)
@@JanBors7 out 10, not too bad. But we've learned that songs have to actually be good enough even for neighbor voting. Poland, Azerbaijan and Moldova were just too lacking. We've also learned that if you perform very well like Ireland and Portugal, there are people everywhere who will vote for quality.
@@CoxaBranca I think honestly, that Poland breakdown just split the voting completely different and mixed the results very much especially for the boarderliners. As I said in the video - this math will work unless you do something very wrong. This was the example. Odds also already had 2 mistakes. Last year only one for both semifinals.
@@JanBors Let's see how Semi 2 goes. Good luck.
@@CoxaBranca also I would say 8/10 as I was talking who is fighting for the last spots as boarderline is specific cases. Lets see SF2, I dont expect a surprise there. I wish for one but..
Kudos for all the work first of all. Just curious- doesn´t the quality of the songs also play an important role when it comes to neighbours voting. I know that Slovenia doesn`t always get 8,10 points from ex Yugoslavia countries if the song is not good. So in this context- isn`t for example Moldova song just way to underwhelming to get all those points it statistically should have. Well, I am really looking forward to see what actually happens and I will try to remember and go compare the actual results with your predictions. It would of course be amazing if you would actually make a video where you would compare the actual result to these predictions and comment on the differences. Fun video anyway. greetings from Slovenia & I hope your prediction for Raiven going to the finals is going to be confirmed as right.
hey! It does seems so, but more likely in the way if they sand something bad. If its average or above, hight points are expected
Could Finland give 12p to croatia? Crazy party!
Yes they could. The Croatian song ticks all the boxes with Finns: it's quirky, it's fun, it has a rock vibe to it, it has the electro part with something similar to Cha cha cha last year (in a good sense). I don't see Fin giving the neighbourly 8,10 or 12 points to Iceland this year because there are "better songs" in this semi final. Lithuania yes because the song is catchy more so than due to the neighbourly vote. I hope our 12 pts will go to Croatia but I am afraid they will go to Ukraine (also a big Ukrainian diaspora here). From 🇫🇮
@@helidon583 yes totally agree, could see 12p to ukraine like in 2016.
Why only 8p to lithuania from ireland. 100% that 12p is going to lithuania!! Look at 2006, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2017, 2019...
Kudos for this work! I think its hard to say because there is not a lot of televote friendly songs in this semi. A lot of songs are midtempo and ballads also. Basically only 3-5 up beat songs here.
I think my country (poland) will vote something like this:
12 - Ukraine
10 - Lithuania
8 - Croatia
7 - Luxembourg (because its going out last)
6 - Finland
5 - Serbia
4 - Moldova
3 - Cyprus
2 - Azerbaijan
1 - Slovenia
0 - Iceland, Portugal, Ireland, Australia.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Serbia Winner!
👍🇷🇸
This is a very interesting analysis, Jan. The whole thing, without the jury, will easily become a crappy freak show. What reasons do good musicians have to participate? None, I'm afraid. They've more to loose with it than to gain. It's a pitty. I also don't like the fact that most songs sound very similar already . Most lack creativity, imho. They've to rely only on staging strategies to differenciate them and elevate them. I'd like to see more "styles", more quality, more ethnic sounds wisely merged with contemporary vibes, less, much less neighbourly voting. I admit though that there's a cultural explanation for it too. Some parts on Europe tend to identify more with a particular rhythm. Each country has beautiful cultural sounds that could be explored. I'm from Portugal. I don't know if you ever heard of "FMM (Festival Musicas do Mundo)" that happens here every year. That's so much more interesting than ESC these days for music lovers all around the world. As for FDC, it has become a mini FMM lately. It's mostly a platform for new artists to show their talent internally, then the usual african and Brasilian sounds, so rooted in our culture too. Then surprisingly a well known artist pops up with a bad song but never wins. I don't know how it will be but I guess we're in trouble again this year for having the ocean as a neighbour. I do like the song and the whole package but good songs seem to belong to a different championship. That's the state of the art in ESC. Maybe they should create a paralell show for joke entries and another to bad pop-ish songs all composed by the same guys?
this is always hard to judge, as in Europe the perception on what is art differ from country to country. But for sure the contest is changing. Really will depend on this year outcome if what I say can be really a strong factor or not. I always look into the past and having juries made a massive change to the contests quality, also unpredictability, as art and craziness could be along. This year is a first real benchmark of this change. Maybe I am way too sceptical.
I don't think Slovenia and Moldova are going trough!!
lets see!
I agree, Ukraine can win ESC 24.
Snufkin and Moomintroll look great together.
Croatie Winner!!
In the last 8 years, Poland in the semi-finals in televoting in 6 out of 7 starts was in the top 10. Only in 2021 it was out.
In 2016, 2022 and 2023, Poland was in the top5.
In addition, Germany and the UK vote in the 1st semi-final, as well as Ukraine and Ireland. Poland received the most points from these countries. In addition, we also have Iceland and Lithuania where a lot of Poles live and often vote for Poland.
These are the numbers!
Idk if you rly watched my video? I dont say anything else than you, just using a matrix of how countries are voting, for what genres and if they have some clear pattern. I am not focusing on Poland only or who gives only points to Poland. Chill out. In my calculation Poland is 6th... the critical places for semi 1 seems to be 9th and 10th place.
Great prediction. Finally somebody, that actually puts work into considering voting patterns and so on. Mine prediction of top 8 is identical
🙏
Azerbaijan will receive much more points from Ukraine and Moldova than you mentioned. Also Iceland due to quality of the song, it won't receive that much or that high neighbor votes, even from Sweden. With the rest, agree.
its possible, thats what data say but it might be also interpreted differently. I am very curious if the last 2 slots are clinical for those few countries or maybe not, maybe it will be a huge difference between 10th and 11th
@JanBors Probably it can be, but I think the difference will be very minor..even it can be that there are same points in 2 countries. I think they will look for more higher points who received, that country will pass. By the way thanks for such detailed and interesting video. Appreciate your work 🙏
@@sognatoremilanese ❤️🙏
There is no way Moldova is a qualifier let alone a "safe qualifier "
I am curious about this :)
Bambie 💙 Ireland 🇮🇪
Portugal 12p to Ukraine & 10p to moldova!! Diaspora voting!
Moldova 🇲🇩 ❤❤Q
Ukraine will most probably give 12 points to Poland - in both semifinal and final (televoting)
and Iceland will give more points to Poland - Poles are the biggest minority in Iceland.
Lets see, Ukrainians rly dot like dance songs and may give points to Moldova more likely by their pattern. About Poles in Iceland - by pattern it does not seem realistic, probably whole country is also voting and then they cannot bypass it.
@@JanBorsYou don’t know what you talking about 😂 Poles minority votes besides the song
Poland has practically always been in the top 10 in televoting also boy you talk stupidity
I don't like Poland this year but the UK will give them a lot of points as will Ukraine I fear. Which semi did Ukraine vote in last year?
Perhaps Eurovision should encourage diaspora voters, in the same way that countries can't vote for their own country, to refrain from voting for the country they 'came from'. And for the 'world vote' to encourage european mother tongue voters to refrain from voting for the country from which their mother tongue originated.
but such thing will happen automatically, it happend many times beforr
Why do you think Poland will get 12 points from rest of the world when they got 0 points from rest of the world in a weaker semifinal than this last year when they also were in the top 3?
there is a different mix of countries this year and its a guess, there is no relevant data for RoW yet.
Sorry Jan but i dont many voters will give enough of a damn about He ra or Natalia. I don't see Moldova Qing - i just don't - that song is weak sauce.
Maybe you are right, I just interpreting statistics here. Not rly my preferred top 10 from each semi. I am very curious how close to reality (or not) this can be. If it can be, it is a big issue
Ireland has 48 points without the world vote, gets 4 points extra from the world vote, doesn’t make 52 points then? Then Ireland qualifies in your prediction..
hmmm, must check! thx!!
Id give lithuania the 10 points and poland 8 from the uk, its how it usually goes.
About luxemburg there ni chance they dont ger point from rest of the world . Tali is jew and live many places in the world( chila, argentina, us)
this is possible, but this is a very guess as I am saying - those elements can shift everything but statistically I cannot support them (or I would need to break down the complexity completely and that would take me more time then I can afford to give it)
@@JanBors so whay you give 10 points to israel if because last year, the reason israel get many point from row voe is the same reason luxmburg will get points from the row
@@yovelzim now I dont get it, as they dont perform in the same semi... but also Luxembourg dont stand out as a song like Israel last year and have completely other combination in semifinal of songs. Many countries from this semi dont put points to dance songs in general and they have more to choose from.
@@JanBors no i talkin spceific about the rest of the world vote. Like you say statisticli we have only one exmpele from last year, and u mention that you give israel and albania hige point from the row becuse diaspiora. So if u talking diaspora. The same diaspora who wil vote for israel. Will vote for tali. Thats my prespctive at least
@@yovelzim it is possible, yes
Ukraine is the only country in top 5 betting odds that is falling down in procentage week after week. All others (Croatia, Italy, Switzerland, only real conteders for win) are rising.
Croatia rose almost a month of beeing on first place from 18% on monday to 21% friday. Italy rose to 11%, switzerland to 9%. Ukraine fell down to 12%.
Also, rest of the world will not give 12 points to Ukraine. Last year, with much better song, they got only 5 points.
You 'statistcs' are obviously not supported by facts.
my stats has nothing to do with odds, they are just reflecting past voting. Nothing else. You dont need to agree with it, thats ok. Does not mean its not facts based.
So unfair, most of it is luck…make juries comeback
lets see, it also can prove itself not relevant
Rest of the world won't give 12 points to Poland simply because her song is so generic and Luna's vocals are pretty bad live
those are exactly factors which I cannot read from data but they exist and can mix everything up a lot
⁉️🤔😅😂😂😂
??
I think Ukraine is awful
I dont
I agree - Ukraine's song is nothing special. People are tired of the same sound and top 3 all the time. Ukraine can't win. Croatia will be ahead for sure!
My prediction:
Croatia ✅
Serbia ✅
Ireland ❌
Ukraine ✅
Poland ❌
Lithuania ✅
Cyprus ✅
Finland ✅
Portugal ❌
Moldova ✅
Azerbaijan ✅
Iceland ❌
Slovenia ✅
Australia ❌
Luxembourg ✅
Thats it.
Poland has practically always been in the top 10 in televoting also boy you talk stupidity
I talk only numbers.
@@JanBors In the last 8 years, Poland in the semi-finals in televoting in 6 out of 7 starts was in the top 10. Only in 2021 it was out.
In 2016, 2022 and 2023, Poland was in the top5.
In addition, Germany and the UK vote in the 1st semi-final, as well as Ukraine and Ireland. Poland received the most points from these countries. In addition, we also have Iceland and Lithuania where a lot of Poles live and often vote for Poland.
These are the numbers!
@@Meleq681 also in those numbers Poland is an easy qualifier. Idk what is the difference?
@@JanBors It means that your talk has nothing to do with these numbers.
@@Meleq681 it does as also this what you are saying are numbers. Idk where we dont understand each other. There are many more countries than just to say - Poland will make it. Its about who else, how do they affect each other. Especially for those who will be at the bottom