CHECHNYA | Russia's Rebel Troops?
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- čas přidán 16. 06. 2024
- The images of Chechen paramilitaries fighting in alongside the Russian Army in Ukraine has raised the question of just how Russia was able to reassert control over Chechnya following its unilateral declaration of independence, in 1991. For almost a decade and a half Moscow fought two brutal conflicts in the North Caucasus as it sought to secure its sovereignty over the Chechen Republic. So, just how did it manage to retake its rebel republic? And just how loyal is it likely to remain?
Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay. Here I take an informed look at International Relations with a focus on territorial conflicts, secession, independence movements and new countries. If you like what you see, please do subscribe. If you want more, including exclusive content and benefits, consider becoming a channel member. Many thanks!
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How do countries that fought against a breakaway territory reassert their sovereignty? And can that territory every truly accept a return to the control of the 'parent' state? One of the most interesting examples in modern international relations centres on the Russian Federation and Chechnya. In 1991, as the Soviet Union collapsed, Chechnya declared independence as the Chechen Republic of Ikcheria. While ignored at first, by late 1994 Moscow could no longer ignore the challenge to its authority and it invaded. However, the conflict - now known as the First Chechen War - was a disaster. Facing stiff opposition, Russia levelled the republics capital, Grozny. In 1997, Russia and Chechnya signed a peace agreement. However, just two years later, in 1999, Vladimir Putin, the new prime minister of Russia ordered troops back in. This time Moscow was more successful. In 2009, the Second Chechen War came to an end. Since then, Russia's sovereignty is unquestioned. This is due to the successful relationship Putin has established with the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, who now exerts complete control over Chechnia. And it's this relationship that has seen Chechen forces fighting alongside the Russian Army in Ukraine. But just how secure is this relationship?
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:37 Chechnya and Russian Sovereignty
2:01 Chechnya: Background Information
2:47 Chechnya in Russia: A Brief History
4:36 The First Chechen War, 1994-1997
6:36 The Second Chechen War, 1999-2009
8:53 How Russia Retook Chechnya
10:59 Will Chechnya Remain Loyal?
12:10 How Russia Retook Chechnya
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International Relations, Conflict and Security in the Post-Soviet Space • Ukraine-Belarus | The ...
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FURTHER READING & USEFUL SOURCES
Chechen Government chechnya.gov.ru
Russian Government en.kremlin.ru/
Russia-Chechnya Peace Agreement (1997) peaceadmin.languageofpeace.or...
Chechen Constitution 2003 www.venice.coe.int/webforms/d...
Russia’s Wars in Chechnya 1994-2009 amzn.to/3jF7tDN
Chechnya: From Past to Future amzn.to/3Eflx0u
Routledge Handbook of the Caucasus amzn.to/3jIl5hD
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KEYWORDS
#Russia #Chechnya #Independence
#InternationalPolitics #CurrentAffairs #InternationalRelations
#Secession #Statehood #Independence
#Kadyrov #Putin #Ukraine
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The presence of Chechen paramilitaries has been one of the most surprising, but also disturbing, elements of the war in Ukraine - especially given the brutal conflict it fought against Russia in the 1990s. Certainly, the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, is loyal to Russia and to Putin personally. But is Chechnya firmly back under Russia's sovereignty once and for all? As ever, thoughts and comments below.
James they can't be paramilitary units they are citizens of Russia them and dagastan are fighting for Russia excellent fighters from war to mma.
@@bilic8094 The designation ‘paramilitary’ isn’t tied to nationality. It’s simply a way of describing forces that aren’t regular military. And they can be either official or unofficial.
@@JamesKerLindsay But they are part of the Russian army they use the letter X on the Chechen military equipment.
@@bilic8094
""The Kadyrovites, also known as the Kadyrovtsy (from Russian: Кадыровцы, lit. 'Kadyrov's followers'), is a paramilitary organization in Chechnya, Russia, that serves as the protection of the Head of the Chechen Republic"
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovites?wprov=sfla1
Sadly, Chechens are fighting on both sides of the Ukrainian war.
I'd like to see more films about certain Russian oblasts and republics with obvious differences in ethnicity and culture and have a genuine argument for independence. Chechnya, Dagestan, and Tatarstan are the obvious ones that stick out. Nonetheless, an interesting topic.
Siberia, they wanted to secede but Russia blocked it before it got too big back in 2014.
The people there are Russian though with some of em being central Asian.
Thanks. Great suggestions. I hope to do more on these in future videos.
Large Russian minority in Tatarstan, even if shrinking. The same in Bashkortostan. Also, they are rich and strategically important republics. Russia would never let them go, unless the country fell apart. Northern Caucasus has the greatest chance, given its border position and small ethnic Russian numbers in all except one republic. Also, Ossetians might stay with Russia, since they're mostly Christian and their brethren from Georgia are currently being supported by Russia. But things change.
@@lucianboar3489 You are right. It's highly unlikely that Tatarstan or Bashkortostan will ever be independent, unless Russia falls or another country involves itself like Kazakhstan or China (or both). Nonetheless, I think investigating such possiblities are interesting.
It's not a very relevant region, but I've always been fascinated by the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. It's strange that it continues as an entity despite largely having lost it's original purpose.
Thank you for educating the world James.
Thank you for the work you are doing to make this videos. You really opened my eyes to the international politics.
Thank you so much! That’s really incredibly kind of you to say. I appreciate it enormously. Have a great weekend.
Really great video! I remember the two Chechen wars, and knew that the current regime answered to Putin, but hadn't invested the time to figure out how that happened. Thanks for explaining it all so clearly!
Hi Fredo! Thanks so much. Yes, it really brought back memories for those of us of a certain age. The war in Chechnya and the destruction of Grozny was a huge international story at the time. And yet there was surprisingly little follow up in the media. The way Russia cemented its control is fascinating. It’s a textbook example of how to win over a rebellious territory.
Exactly the same for me... Great video.
Sir James Ker-Lindsay, thank you.
Nothing as pleasing as the true facts James Ker Lindsay thank you for your honest good work.
A very informative summary! And relevant to today. Thank you.
Thanks so much!
Thanks. It was very informative
you're videos are amazing, thank you so much for this information !!
Thank you so much!
Timely, as it could be, to bring up and let us remember; this so seemingly parallel event, so recent and in cause, I sincerely thank you for this.
Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻
All the Chechens I have met in my life identify themselves as Chechens never as Russian. I think as long as Moscow doesnt show weakness, Chechniya is going nowhere.
Isn't Moscow showing weakness right now?
@Pantsmonster v6 Botched invasion against a nothing power says otherwise
@Pantsmonster v6 are you absolutely sure about this statement moving T62 (1960 era tanks) is not desperate or their ww2 tactics swarm them the state of their army on and on
You are mixing up ethnicity with nationality. When they say they are Chechens and not Russians, they mean that their ethnicity is Chechen and not Russian.
@@scpmr I asked the Chechen men if they were Russian in the sense of nationality. They did not even accept Russian as their natioinality even though we know Chechnya is part of Russian state.
James, I know there are more popular issues now with the war in Ukraine, but could you please make a video on Moldova? I've been waiting for one since you had 2k subscribers.
Thanks. I know you have been incredibly patient about this. I actually plan to do one very soon. As it happens, I was in Romania (near Cluj) just a couple of weeks ago and had a number of very interesting conversations about Moldova and Romania. Unfortunately, I couldn’t film while I was there as it was a very short visit. But I’m working on the script. I’ll try to have it done in the next few weeks. In the meantime, many apologies again for the delay.
@@JamesKerLindsay Great boss. I'm also hoping you will make another discussion on Western Togoland. Interestingly, this territory has had many name change within the past century: Wrongly written Togo by the German Navigator Gustav Nautiga instead of Torgo. It has been called West Togo, Western Togoland, Togoland under British Administration, British Togoland and now the UNO state of Togo. I hope they will be independent!
As a very recent subscriber, I am amazed by the content and objectiveness of this channel! It is truly refreshing to hear a well-versed, academic opinion on topics that are usually very controversial in nature. Thank you for posting!
More about this video, as I did not have much knowledge about the Chechen wars before, particularly about its reintegration into the Russian Federation, it served as a great overview and a platform to delve deeper. One slight mistake I would like to point out though (as I did not see people mention it before) is that Russia does not have 20 republics, as mentioned at 2:02, but 21, 22 if Crimea is included. Other than that, great content, thank you once again!
Thank you very much Vojin. I really appreciate it.
Good point about the republics - although obviously I adhere to the general international line that Crimea is not legally a part of Russia.
I've seen Soo many videos of yours today. I feel smart.
Haha! Good stuff. I’m glad you found them so useful.
I had no idea about anything regarding Czechia before. Thank you.
I was always curious what happened and why Chechnya did a 180. Thank you for providing the background here James!!!
Thanks so much. Yes, it struck me as a really interesting question as the images appeared of the Chechen fighters in Ukraine. I hoped it might be useful!
Simple
They are puppets now. Tnx to Ramzan Kadirov
Interesting video, thank you
Thanks Roger. Have a lovely weekend.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you very much Sir! BTW Today is the 50th anniversary of the launch of Apollo 16
I love this youtube channel. Your English is very clear and easily understandable for foreigners and your information is in a timeline which i really like
Thank you so much Einar. I really appreciate it! :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay Keep up the good work. I would love to hear stories about Colombia. Some areas are severly neglected by the government and there have been some independence movements ;)
@@einarsigurdsson3701 Thanks so much. Great suggestion. I’ve wanted to do something on Colombia for ages.
Thank you sir
fantastic commentary...*****
Thank you again, the quality of your videos is always amazing!!
It’s interesting to see that such development can happen after a secession war, however it seems to be a very naive and risky bet from Russia to expect the outcome with Ukraine being similar. Nothing is similar between Ukraine and Chechenya: the political and historical background, the size of country and population, military power, strategical importance for other countries who will probably remain involved in one way or another and so the list goes on…
Thanks so much for the really kind comment! Always appreciated.
You are absolutely right about the differences. In the case of Chechnya, even had it completely repelled Russia it would have little room for manoeuvre. It would not be internationally recognised as it would have been viewed as a secessionist entity. And no country would want to pointlessly antagonise Russia at that time. Also, Moscow could have vetoed its membership of the UN. It would just be another de facto state. In contrast, Ukraine is a sovereign state that is universally recognised. But who knows what Putin was thinking. Maybe he did think that he would be ‘liberating’ Ukraine and that with the right (Moscow sanctioned) leadership they would fall into line. It certainly doesn’t make sense otherwise. It would be one thing to conquer Ukraine. But to maintain its control, Russia would need to keep a sizeable military presence on the ground indefinitely - even with a compliant Ukrainian leader.
@@JamesKerLindsay thank you for your answer, always appreciated. This is an interesting point you’re raising at the end of your message. I can’t help but think of similarities between Germany occupying France in the 40’s and Russia potentially occupying Ukraine. Area is similar, population was similar. At the beginning, there were 50,000 troops to occupy the country (exact figures are not clear but it was the range so far I know), the idea was to keep the existing police to minimize the cost of occupation (troops were needed in the East). There was also no significant resistance.
In 44 there was a nationwide organized resistance (although only a couple of % of the population was involved) supported by other countries. There were above a million German troops to keep the country.
I think you’re right when saying Putin was expecting something else. It wouldn’t make sense otherwise.
Kadyrov seems like an awesome guy. He's living the dream as far as he's concerned and doesn't give a damn about Western sensibilities. He's the right leader for his people.
Even though it's a strained analogy, I would compare it to Great Britain in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. Although there were scores of Scottish and Irish exiles who took up arms against English soldiers in wars such as the American Revolution, there were an equal or greater number who fought on behalf of the British Empire.
Indeed. Very good point!
I'd argue that your analogy makes more sense than you believe. Britain's attitude towards Scotland and Ireland differ considerably with the former being treated as an equal partner since the King of England is the King of Scotland from King James I onwards (through legal succession) while the latter is treated as a conquered badlands with the "King of Ireland" being the King of England forced upon them (There was no King of Ireland for the King of England to be related to to inherit that throne). Whereas the Scots were treated with dignity and fairness (most of the time) and their national identity remains whole, the (Catholic) Irish were treated rather poorly by the English-aligned and actual English local elites with their culture seen as inferior and ought to be eradicated. Events like the Great Irish Famine and London's lackluster response to such only fuels the resentment against them leading to the fight for independence in 1916.
Using this analogy, Chechnya is the Scotland of Russia: well taken cared of and allowing Chechens to be Chechens without being threatened by Moscow. Ukraine is the Ireland of Russia: it shouldn't exist in their eyes and they are better off Russian than Ukrainian...
TLDR: Treat people with kindness also applies to national politics, especially after suppressing a secessionist war...
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 yeah, after a mass deportation and two wars that overall killed hundreds of thousands out of a people that is now about 1.5 million...I wouldn't say they're the Scots:) they're more like the Basques or the Corsicans, in that the big country they're part of has an uneasy alliance with them because they can do a lot of damage to that country if not given the carrot sometimes instead of the stick.
And the British used these Scottish and Irish brigades as shock troops to conquer India. Then, in India, Sikhs were weaponized and made the shock troops to conquer parts of Africa. Than, in Africa, certain African ethnic tribes were used, again, as shock troops against both Arabs and other Africans. There is a reason that Idi Amin's nickname was Last King of Scotland.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 haha yeah Ukraine is the Ireland.. Historically full of starving unwashed people eating potatoes to survive... But honestly the ukrain issue is more complex and its a problem created by the communists and their carving up of Russian lands and other population manipulation games.. Logically Ukraine, Belarus and Russia should have stayed as a union of independent States with their own militaries and industries but a shared currency, customs Union and a freedom of trade and movement, each state was so tied to the other culturally and economically... And it probably would have stopped the most severe bullshit of the 1990s and never given rise to putin. And probably would have lead to a much stronger collective economy.. Because the severing of ukrain and Russia overnight broke both nations completely in every way.. Every industry and process was interlinked between the two.. Whole industries vanished.. Millions of people found them selves suddenly stuck in the other country and so on... Ukrain would with cheap Russian materials and energy be a centre for manufacturing and food processing in Europe.. But 3 criminal communist parasites chose to make their own countries overnight and that was the end of that. Millions lost everything they had and a few gained billions.. An amicable destruction of the apparatus of the ussr but a voluntary economic an political union that slowly allowed each state to find their footing would have suited everyone involved at the time. Instead they tore everything apart in a short period of time
Wow I did not know this! Thank you for discussing this, I always assumed there was still heavy martial law and bombings!
Great video as aways James! Very curious to know what the General population does think and feel regarding Russia and how supportive they truly are.
Thanks so much Nicholas. I must say that I’d be really keen to know as well. But if we think Putin keeps control of Russia, then Kadyrov seems to have an even tighter grip on Chechnya. It is a really fascinating study of how a state can conquer and reintegrate a breakaway territory. But one just can’t help but wonder how ordinary people feel and if the roots of further pro-independence agitation are there?
@@JamesKerLindsay then wait fir the new afganistan
Thanks for the video! Speaking of Chechnya, an ally of Putin, I'd like to know if you also make a video about Hungary, where Soviet crushed the rebels in the 50s but now one of the fervent supporter of Putin-Russia in EU and the president-elect Orban were once dissident.
Hungary isn't pro Russia
They are just not a team player
"as long as two remain in power" - these are the main words from your video :)
Yes. One has to wonder what happens if either leaves the scene! Some Chechens must surely now be wondering about how they would fare if they went up against Russia. Then again, I’m not sure anyone would want to revisit the destruction of Grozny. I remember the stories and images of the conflict from the 1990s. It was horrifically brutal.
Suggestions:.
-Thomas Sankara
-Spain's recent policy shift on the WS.
-Why is stuff like Gibraltar or the Falklands considered colonies by the UN and other regions like Tibet, Dagestan, Kurdistan, Hawaii, etc, you know, regions inhaabited by indigenous that hace independence movements and belong to other countries because of their historical or present imperial actions.
Will you be discussing the protests in Kazakhstan?
Hi professor,can we get an update on somalialand,the recent US visit. What does this mean ??
Great video. There must still be significant resentment lingering within Chechnya - the noughties were not that long ago. Any suggestions for reading more about internal divisions or anti-Kadyrov-ism?
Thanks so much. It would be fascinating to have an insight into what ordinary Chechens are thinking. However, it seems hard to get an accurate picture. If ordinary Russians are afraid of speaking up in Moscow, one can only imagine what Chechens in Chechnya must be thinking. But maybe some other here could give you some pointers a for good sources. I’d be keen to hear them too!
Majority of chechens hates kadyrov and his militia, no Ordinary chechen want to Die for russia or putin, in Ukraine there is only kadyrovtsy who are paid a lot not one ordinary chechen on the russian side
I am unable to get this particular video to actually play. No issues elsewhere (that I've noted) within your offerings nor indeed elsewhere. Not a technical issue at my end.
Thanks so much for letting me know. It’s strange. I just tested it from my end and there weren’t any problems. (I’m actually abroad and so it wasn’t on my usual connection.) I’m really not sure what the problem could be. I haven’t heard any other stories of it being unavailable or blocked. I’m so sorry that you had an issue with it. Many apologies.
It sums up to this. « If i cant have it, neither can you. » (regarding independence)
Still waiting for video on India-Portuguese War professor.
@Prof James Ker-Lindsay Breaking News: Greek Cypriot press reported today that Russia informed Cyprus that she will open a consulate in the "TRNC"
Sweet
Will you be making a video of Sweden/Finland possible NATO membership, while receiving threats from Putin
Will you be discussing the dispute between Turkey and Syria over hatay province Professor?
Thanks so much for the great suggestion. Yes, it is on my list of topics. There are just so many issues I’d like to be able to cover!
No problem
There isn't any dispute lol
The Syrian Government still shows the area as a part of Syria on its map
@@loadingbmode7617 I know the Baathist regime still hasn't gotten over it, but it's a pretty one sided dispute
Exactly"Surprising & disturbing "
Kadyrov seems to be an old style warlord similar to the ones of Africa and central Asia
That might be an intimation of what style of government should be expected if any Ukrainian territories
and up being annexed to Russia
Prof I know that the current crisis in Ukraine is quite alarming and this may seem tone deaf but could you do an analysis of the crises in Sri Lanka
Thank you for this very well-made and thorough examination of the topic. I can‘t help but wonder whether or not Russia might be inclined to make efforts in its captured territories similar to those you have described in this video. Of course the obstacles will be much bigger, given that Ukraine is arguably more developed, industrialized and educated than Chechnya (or at least that‘s what a superficially educated individual like me may be led to believe).
I am relatively sure however that Moscow will take a more lengthy and calculated approach, considering the difficulties its forces are facing in capturing all those territories that are ethnically ukranian-dominated ( i.e. the Donbass Regions, Donetzk and Luhansk).
I would be very ineterested in hearing your thoughts on this theory.
Kind regards from Germany.
"I can‘t help but wonder whether or not Russia might be inclined to make efforts in its captured territories similar to those you have described in this video."
The spending part is plausible (if Russia is able keep the territories it has conquered from Ukraine and if it doesn't become broke due to the war and the sanctions) as Russia did also spend a lot to develop Crimea. However, giving a broad autonomy and letting the region be ruled by a local warlord seems less likely since the population is of the same or closely related ethnic group unlike in Chechnya.
Enjoyed the video! Do you happen to know why some regions in Russia became ASSRs like Chechnya and Tuva instead of SSRs that became independent after the collapse of the Soviet union?
Thanks. Great question. Sadly, I don’t. But it is a fascinating topic. Interestingly, while Chechen is one of 20 republics in the Russian Federation, there are in fact around 80 different federal subjects. As well as the republics, there are oblasts, cities and other entities. It seems that there is a long history of these different types of bodies. But you are absolutely right, the difference between SSRs and ASSRs was absolutely crucial!
@@JamesKerLindsay I've tried searching online for any information, but as you said the absolutely crucial differentiation seems to either not be that well known about / documented in the English language! Maybe there's more information in the Russian language
Probably because of their small size and population compared to the ones that became SSRs. Only a couple of ASSRs (Tatarstan and Bashkortostan) had comparable populations to smaller SSRs like Armenia, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and they had more ethnic Russians than those SSRs. Also they had been in the Russian Empire for hundreds of years whereas those smaller SSRs had been in Imperial Russia for much less than 100 years by the 1917 Revolution. After WW2 another 5 small SSRs came into being, and one, Karelia, soon became an ASSR, ethnic Russians being the majority there.
@@JamesKerLindsay Just did a little Wikipedia research and it looks like they had Kirghiz Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic from 1920-1925, renamed to Kazak Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic in 1925 and lasting until 1936 when it became the more independent Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic, and of course is now the fully independent Republic of Kazakhstan since 1991.
Looks like a few others may have gone this same route, but I didn't look beyond this one example.
@@lucianboar3489 But eg. Chechnya's population is the same size as Estonias
Thank you for this superb analysis! Chechnya is important, because the majority of western audiances seem to be oblivious to the fact that Russia lies across the fault line of Christianity and Islam, with Chechnya being part of the latter.
Thank you so much! Great point. This is indeed often forgotten. Large parts of Russia have considerable Muslim populations.
And that is despite Putin's rather less than glowing opinion on Islam...
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 and therefore condemned Macron
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 But Putin is the only European leader to state it is not freedom of speech or expression to insult the Prophet - could you state where your claim of his "rather less than glowing opinion on Islam" come from?
@@JamesKerLindsay Muslims are going to be the majority population in Russia by 2075 due to ethnic Russians steel population decline
Glad you covered this as I've always found Chechnya fascinating. Do you really think ordinary Chechans are in any way loyal to Moscow or do you think those fighting are doing so out of necessity? Also to what extent do you think the terrorist attacks that Chechans carried out in other areas of Russia influenced the Kremlin's policy towards the republic? Do you think there is a part of Putin that feels threatened by Chechnya? Their autonomy is unprecedented in the country and their military might is impressive. Hypothetically if Chechnya wanted to try to break away again they'd now be in a better position to hold their own against Russia (although Kadyrov would be unlikely to risk his almost absolute power in the republic).
Great video as always
Thanks so much! I had wanted to take a look at Chechnya for a while. It was such a brutal and bloody conflict. I can well remember how it dominated the news in the mid-1990s.
Great question about the loyalty of the Chechens. There have been a number of good insights in the comments. It is just so hard to know what ordinary people think. But I would imagine that there would be a lot of lingering resentment towards Russia, especially given the huge numbers of dead and injured in the wars. But for now, there seems to be little anyone can do. The big question is whether the war in Ukraine might open up agitation within Russia again. At this stage, I don't see it happening - especially with Kadyrov in charge. But one could certainly see a situation where parts of the Federation turn against the centre. The Caucasus would be an obvious area for such resistance. Certainly a situation to watch!
It would be interesting to hear why in 1991 some area/counties broke away from the USSR to become countries and some did not. What was the differences?
i m not surprised they retook it, i m surprised they kept it. thats always been the harder challenge.
Nice alliteration in the title
Thank you very much! 🙂
I hope Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, Guam, Hawaii, California, Putero Rico, Ryukus can declare their independence and get freedom from their colonizers
You raise an important question Professor but as the Chechens who are mostly Muslim will have learned from the last conflict that unlike Ukraine they will get no assistance from outside and will have to take on the might of Russia on their own. As it is Ukraine even with outside assistance is struggling to cope with a relatively weak Russian campaign.
Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Eypyt where were ye. Not sure the west can help here.
Also perhaps one reason for the lack of western interest and assistance was due to some of the brutal tactics used by the Chechens not exactly endearing them to public sympathy . Eg.Their frequent use of hostage taking & in many cases the torture and execution of Russian PoWs (which was sometimes even filmed and then copies were left for Russian soldiers to find.) I’m not necessarily saying the Russian’s were any better, but it’s hard to get people with little or no knowledge of your struggle, to see you as ‘the good guys’ and want to support your cause, whilst at the same time engaging in behaviour they would consider unpalatable.
It works because authority leaders love each other so much.
I believe that Solzhenitsyn said that the Chechens would never, ultimately, be broken by Stalin.
Ukraine is choosing not to be a bootlicker like Chechnya. What's wrong with that?
Two very different situations. Under international law, Chechnya was considered a part of Russia. Its independence was seen as secession. And no other country recognised it. It could at best be a de facto state -always a precarious existence. Ukraine is a sovereign independent state facing the loss of that status.
Thank you for the video and explanation. Fascinating. Could you explain how Chechnya could sustain the fight against Russian military. Was there any help from elsewhere?
James can you see yourself going to Russia/Ukraine in the future as you did in the Armenian Azerbaijan war that video was how I found your channel and I have followed up on all your videos ever since
Thanks so much. I’m not sure if I will be able to go to either country. But I do have a couple more ‘on location’ videos planned. Hopefully the first will be at the end of next month or the start of June. And then I have a couple planned for August. I really loved doing the Armenia one, notwithstanding the grim topic. It’s great to be able to add a closer perspective to the issues I cover.
I don't think Chechens and Tatars should fight for the Russian nor Ukrainians.
Fighting for ukriane is a good cause
@@williamthebonquerer9181🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
@@williamthebonquerer9181 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
@@FlamingBasketballClubyou pro Russia people always try to sneak in your agenda.
Seems like another video without announcement.
Yes. Sorry about that. It is a public holiday today. I was spending a lovely sunny afternoon with the family. :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay Sorry, I'm not knowledgeable when it comes to public holidays in the UK.
@@JamesKerLindsay lucky you. It's still snowing here in Canada 😭 the winter that'll never end
They are not "paramilitaries" they are part of the Russian Federation and official Russian troops.
I wrote about the first Chechen war for my politics dissertation and always take a keen interest on the subject.
I think the Chechen nation will strive for independence again one day. When that will be who can tell but I know for sure the vast majority of the Chechens do not support kadyrov and his lackies on bit.
Chechnya (and the Caucasus people in general) are very much tied to their clan (teip) and the only people who support the kadyrovs are from their own clan (on the whole, interestingly shamil basayev of the Beslan incident was from the same wider clan).
A little talked about fact is that a big reason why the Chechen population (atleast the older generation who haven’t been so brainwashed) despise the Kadyrovs because they are not pure Chechen. Their ancestors where infact Cossacks from the Stavropol region who intermarried into the Chechen bloodline. Even though this goes back centuries, to many they have no authority over the Chechen population due to their mixed blood.
But on the whole Chechens are tired of constant war and conflict and are ‘happy’ for some bit of stability (if majorly curtailed by political and social oppression). However the time will come when the population will strive to throw off the shackles of internal and external rule. It is just about choosing the right time.
If putin tumbles, kadyrov will surely follow. This will be the time for the Chechens to rise up once more.
I suspect the same. I don't think this conflict is over. Putin can't live forever.
And replaced by what?
I was 15 years old but I remember a number of "terrorist attacks" by Chechens including the one in Beslan and the others. My dad told me it was done actually by russia in order to have a reason to initiate the war again. Why do you think about that?
Thanks. I didn’t cover the wider terrorist attacks. This was an important part in driving Russia’s attitudes towards the conflict. I know that there have been these theories. Of course, it’s always important to treat such suggestions with caution. Conflict can often lead to all sorts of disinformation and misinformation. But that’s not to say that false flag operations don’t happen.
False flag operations. Reasonable occupation tactic. Russia
Did it all the time in history. Bombs their own people, to make it look like an invasion from other power and justify starting the war.
Why did Russia have two wars to prevent the Chechens become independent if the Chechens are now acting autonomously???
Chechens and Russian relationship is surprisingly good. what a wildcard!
Very interesting.
I wonder if the absence of units of Chechen fighters and Kadyrov himself will lead to any stirrings of rebellion back home. There were some early reports that they took heavy loses (fog of war so can't be sure). Money has been poured into Chechnya but will that money still be pouring in when sanctions start to bite? If something happned to Kadyrov I wonder what would happen in Chechnya.
When will sanctions start to bite?, 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
@@dustym-o-h8349 who knows, watch and see
A few days ago I did some "Wikipedia research" on Russian national republics, looking for ones where ethnic Russians are minorities. Below is what I came up with. My question is around what could happen if Russia lost very badly in Urkaine. Could any of these areas, separately or together, break away from Russia? Would they even want to? And being so small, would it really matter even if they did? Something to think about.
North Caucasian Federal District
Chechnya (Chechen Republic)
Population (2010): 1,268,989
Chechens: 95.3%
Russians: 1.9%
Dagestan (Republic of Dagestan)
Population (2010): 2,910,249
Northeast Caucasians: 74.3%
• Avars: 29.4%
• Dargins: 16.5%
• Lezgins: 13.1%
• Laks: 5.4%
• Tabasarans: 4.3%
• Chechens: 3.4%
• Aghuls: 0.9%
• Rutuls: 1.0%
• Tsakhurs: 0.3%
Turkic peoples: 20%
• Kumyks: 14.2%
• Azerbaijanis: 4.3%
• Nogais: 1.5%
Russians: 4.7%
Ingushetia (Republic of Ingushetia)
Population (2010): 412,529
Ingushes: 94.1%
Chechens: 4.6%
Russians: 0.8%
Kabardino-Balkaria (Kabardino-Balkarian Republic)
Population (2010): 859,939
Kabardin: 57.2%
Balkars: 12.7%
Russians: 22.5%
Karachay-Cherkessia (Karachay-Cherkess Republic)
Population (2010): 477,859
Karachays: 41.0%
Cherkess: 11.9%
Abazins: 7.8%
Russians: 31.6%
North Ossetia-Alania (Republic of North Ossetia-Alania)
Population (2010): 712,980
Ossetians: 65.1%
Russians: 20.8%
Southern Federal District
Kalmykia (Republic of Kalmykia)
Population (2010): 289,481
Kalmyks: 57.4%
Russians: 30.2%
Volga (Privolzhsky) Federal District
Bashkortostan (Republic of Bashkortostan)
Population (2010): 4,072,292
Bashkirs: 29.5%
Volga Tatars: 25.4%
Russians: 36.1%
Chuvashia (Chuvash Republic)
Population (2010): 1,251,619
Chuvash: 67.7%
Russians: 26.9%
Tatarstan (Republic of Tatarstan)
Population (2010): 3,786,488
Tatars: 53.2%
Russians: 39.7%
Siberian Federal District
Tuva (Tyva Republic)
Population (2010): 307,930
Tuvans: 82.0%
Russians: 16.3%
Far Eastern Federal District
Sakha (Sahka Republic)
Population (2010): 958,528
Sakha: 49.9%
Russians: 37.8%
Ukraine had 10s of millions of people, they border directly with NATO and can get support. It's doubtful an area Russia has had total control over for centuries with less than a million people could possibly fight Russia, even if they lose in Ukraine.
@@MrM323 Yeah, that's my realistic take as well. But one can dream!
Thanks so much. It really is fascinating to see those figures broken down like that. Overall, ethnic Russians seem to be a majority in most of the Russian Federation (albeit after decades of big centuries of social engineering), but there are still parts where other ethnic-national groups predominate. It really is a reminder that Russia is, first and foremost, an imperial project. In the case of the Caucasus, maybe some sort of confederation might make sense, at least as a starting point, if they wanted to break away. I’ve been thinking about maybe doing something on Russia and secessionism more generally. It is so interesting. Thanks again!
@@JamesKerLindsay I look forward to what you might come up with!
It's not enough just to have different nationalities in a country. All those people need to want to be independent. The people of russia are slaves unfortunately. They are extremely passive about everything, they don't make decisions, they don't act, just follow the commands from the top.
They can't be compared to free Ukrainians they are willing to fight for their independence.
That's why it's impossible to see anything like the 2014 Ukrainian revolution in russia. We all hoped it could happen after Feb 24 but our illusions disappeared immediately.
It's interesting seeing the three different strands of Chechen politics fighting in Ukraine, the pro Russian Kadyrovites, the pro independence secular Dudayev Battalion and the pro independence Islamist Sheik Mansur Battalion.
Why did you stop saying "... and the origins of countries"?
Напоминает Парфёнова
Two young men I recently met here in Miami were from Chechyna. During a conversation, I asked them if they were of Russian nationality and they both shook their heads no, They definitely were not Russian or even Chechen - Russians. What this means long term, we will have to wait and see.
They said that because of the obvious hate crimes against russians in US.
@@Mahalakshmi-Khan Mr Putin, I believe Russia would do so much better if it concentrated on developing its huge lands in Siberia. Russia doesn't need to conquer more territory. Kamchatka could easily be developed into one of the world's greatest tourist destinations. Make that a priority and you will see huge benefits for all of the Russian Far East.
Hell on earth appeared in this region twice!
I got to give props to the Russians they did a great job at fixing the rift in chechnya just like the Americans did and fixing the rift in the CSA
I don't say that as a means of praise for the current ruler and how he treats the people but just as a bird's eye view political looking down practical view it's impressive
Speaking about such complicated issues in generalizations as if it could extract axioms is incredibly ignorant. Most people want to simplify things for themselves, I get it, but this particular issue has shown itself so complicated reducing it to axiomatic suppositions is disrespectfully reductionistic.
Eritrea has show Russia great support!
The problem with political regimes that depend on loyalty to a leader and not to a sacralized law or constitution is succession.
An Independent Caucasus would be really interesting to see. It would also freak Putin out so much that global peace would be gravely threatened.
Again and again across history, Russia is preoccupied with pushing it's territorial control right to the edge of seas and mountain ranges.
You should do one on why Turkey is the broker between Ukraine and Russia and even becoming somewhat of a friend of Russia's (despite selling drones to Ukraine). I thought Turkey and Russia hated each other's guts going back centuries.
Thanks. Great suggestion and a brilliant topic. This has actually been on my to-do list for quite a while.
China and Russia also have border disputes. India and China also have border disputes.
But Russia sells weapons to both the neighbours.
Good observation Prof. I think the future and status of Chechnya depends on the fall of both Putin and Kadyrov.Should either or both fall from power things will definitely change for Chechnya in its current forced marriage with Russia. Also other republics could follow suit
With Russia deep into a war with Ukraine with harsh western sanctions, I wonder if this could lead to new rounds of unrest in Chechnya?
After all, if Russia can't afford to send troops, and also is no longer able to fully invest in the region, I could imagine that changing the situation.
Thanks. I was rather thinking the same. There must be those in Chechnya, and elsewhere, thinking that now would be the ideal time to make a move. There are a few conflicts that could yet erupt.
Even in Moldova and Georgia it's quiet now. They had a chance to restore control over the occupied territories but nothing happened.
@@ogamaniuk пишу на русском языке окупантов переходи на мову
@@ogamaniuk
Ground work for unrest in Moldova is already done. Due to American funding, both Moldovan President and Prime Minister are loyalists to America. They have slowly started targetting the minority Russians in Moldova. When the US gives the signal, full fledged targetting of ethnic russians would start.
About to go on a flight now James. Will probably have to debunk this later.
Have a safe flight man i guess your flying through Belgrade or Istanbul if your leaving from Russia.
Haha! Thanks. I’ll look forward to it. Have a safe flight! :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks James I appreciate that. 🙂
@@bilic8094 Ha ha. It was a domestic flight within Russia. Our country is massive. But thank you! 🙂 I posted my response and admit I was wrong on this.
Wonder what would UK US do if they had such a thing....
Wow James! Well, I guess I was wrong on this. You did a great job at covering the Chechen Conflict. 9.5/10. My only issue was that you seemed to ignore the terrorist bombings committed by Chechen terrorists WITHOUT us provoking them? Hmmmm. I shall give you the benefit of the doubt and say it was due to time issues.
The bit about how we got humiliated at the end of the First Chechen War was painful to hear but sadly true. And now you can see why we prefer a more firm leader now eh James?
Finally, thanks for mentioning us rebuilding Grozny as well. I was happy you did that. You managed to repair my respect for you after those disgraceful Karelia comments.
Do a live stream and I'll send you a small payment as an apology, or if there's any way I can send you a small payment that CZcams will allow, considering I am based in Russia. (I guess I could just use a VPN?) Although I want to see you doing a video on the 2008 Russo Georgian conflict please as soon as you are ready.
Overall, good job though James. You proved me wrong again, on another issue. I thought it would be pro Chechen propaganda and not a well balanced analysis.
Prof. you forgot to mention the American and Saoudi back of the second Chechnya with fundamentalists, who did attack the sufi majority of Chechens.
This video left me with the question, I hear the word miscalculation all the time regarding Ukraine, but I have never bought into that idea, they have been at war for 8 yrs now, both sides know each other and there has never been anything about that war to suggest Russia could take Kiev in a week. A miscalculation can only happen if you don't know your enemy and guess wrong, so if not a miscalculation why invade? Will we ever really know. I can see how Putin's experience with Chechnya could give him some encouragement for the same outcome in Ukraine but come on, they've been at this for 8 yrs now, similarities between the two are long past.
I saw on the map, Dagestan, have you done a video on Dagestan yet? I've heard it's the most versatile region in Russia and sound fascinating.
Thanks Todd. Really good point. I know what you mean. I think the key factor is that the war in the East had been much more akin to a proxy war. We knew Russia was directing it and covertly using its troops, but it never committed is full might to the situation. That is probably the element of miscalculation in all this. Also, Ukraine has been steadily building up its capabilities and training. Finally, it seems that Russia’s key intelligence bodies weren’t giving Putin the real information. This might explain why the Security Chief looked so worried just before the war. He knew exactly what was coming!
@@JamesKerLindsay that’s all very true as well but to me still doesn’t rise to a miscalculation. Not putting your full weight behind the Donbass doesn’t prevent you from knowing your enemy. Look how well Ukrainians know Russia. Only one of two possibilities makes sense, either, as you said, no one would tell Putin the truth and he truly knew less than I do or there have been rumors about Putin’s health and knowing his time may be limited it was either now or never regardless of risk and readiness of the military.
@@Todd.B Well, you clearly miss one point. This is not typical invasion with enormous deaths, lots of bombings etc. Russia is destroying military infrastructure and wages war with Ukraine army, but it's not shelling on cities, killing tens of thousands civilians, destroying bridges and buildings. This war could last 10 years, and the main goal could be to take Ukraine back into some new Soviet Union or so to say new Russian Empire, and you cannot do that if you are going to kill civilians just for the sake of victory. These are strategic wars which take much time.
Ukraine alone, would not be standing right now and acting like it could is a bold faced lie.
Part of me questions how the current arrangement with Chechnya after the Second Chechen War is any better for Russia than how the First Chechen War ended. After the first war, Chechnya was essentially off Russia's hands. Now, Chechnya has a dictatorship that only nominally bothers to follow or implement Russian law. Russian taxpayers have to pay for the upkeep of an islamist dictator whose main concession to Russian rule is just being personally chummy with Putin. How is this a more favourable outcome than just letting Chechnya be independent?
Never under estimate the Russian ability to co-op local elites. Checneya was turned from a bitter enemy to a close ally over 20 years. I can see the same happening in occupied parts of Ukraine. I haven't heard any reports in the occupied south of the much predicated insurgency. Russia has a well oiled play book to fall back on, especially in areas with a lot of ethnic Russians, who have not had an easytime of it under the current Ukrainian administration.
Co-opting local elites is easy: just pay them with riches and perks and they'll sing anything you want. Happened with the US following the surrender of the First Philippine Republic in 1902, every rich Ilustrado just went with the Americans after promising to protect their interest and give them some perks like extra land from the disestablished Catholic Church...
Thanks. Good point. Any good empire - and Russia is essentially an empire - needs to master just this ability. As I explained, lavish spending (at least by local standards), political autonomy and co-opting local elites can go a long way. It will be interesting to see what happens in Eastern Ukraine. It is still early days for an insurgency.
Excellent point. Yes, economic benefits can go a long way. But joined with giving a lot of political control to local elites, and ignoring their corruption and abuses, can do wonders - until it all comes crashing down!
@@JamesKerLindsay Russia has mastered it.. The russian state has the unique ability to empower conquered people to status above its own native Russian people in such a way that the conquered people don't see an alternative without Russia, the did it well with many groups.. The volga bulgars..... Kazan Tatars are the best example 500 years with Russia and still a strong culture because the russian state put them ahead of the average Russian in most cases. Russia has the bruit force and resources to do such things.. Russian Finland is another example of it.. Where the Finns received substantialy greater rights, freedoms and services than Russians could ever dream of. The chechens are getting this same treatment now.. And if needed the tuvans, the yakuts, Buryat Mongols, bashkirs, kalmyk Mongols ect ect can all be drawn down using the same technique to illicit loyalty and even be used against the russian majority by the state in an uprising or political unrest
The difference this time is the heavy sanctions. Might be harder to sell this time around.
Guys are not even allowed to wear short pants outside in Chechnya. I'd never experienced that before anywhere!
What a horrible traitor to his own people who suffered so much. May all of mankind meet justice one day.
0:20 My impression is that the Chechen forces aren't really "at the forefront". In Ukraine the do photo-ops and internal security (e.g. preventing Donbass conscripts from deserting) but not that much frontline fighting. If you look at the Russian casualty figures by ethnicity you'll notice that there aren't that many Chechen casualties suggesting that they aren't a part of the heavy fighting. Of course, casualty figures reported by Russia are suspect but these relative casualty figures by ethnicity probably tell a lot more than the total figure (which is almost certainly a low-ball estimate).
USA civil war is also interesting akin to this topic.
How did they merge the Union and Confederate in the end? Forcing the Confederate to follow everything Union said won't fix anything and will lead to another civil war.
The statue of Confederate generals were also kept there until today where things got heated up. Even USA media is kind of biased towards Union nowadays, cancelling every single thing about Confederate cultures.
Slavery is bad but Confederate cultures weren't all about that, and it's pretty single sided for Union to abolish slavery while the Union got the upper hand because of immigrations while the Confederate tied to slavery in order to keep things going. Moving to what the Union wants and business in Confederate States will fall quite heavily.
I wonder how this will affect the Confederate States in USA on the future.
I think Putin thought he could repeat the Chechen experience in Ukraine?
Messrs Kadyrov and Putin: Water finds its own level.
Indeed!
Thanks for this video James! Here is something that i said couple of videos ago and people attacked me for it like im some kind of terrorist just because i said russians are trying not to kill civilians in Ukraine, i mean just look when they don't care (ie second chechen war). Guess you can't speak freely anymore lol. In the Chechen war russians were shelling the hell out of Chechen capital Grozny killing 80.000 chechen civilians in the process. There is no evedence that shows that russians wont do that again if chechens try something sketchy, and can chechens really afford it? They realized, if you can't win, join them.
Thanks. But, sadly, I think there is all sorts of evidence emerging now that Russian forces have been committing atrocities against civilians. Of course, we don’t know if this is a deliberate policy. But it seems very clear it has been happening. The key difference with Chechnya is that we are now living in a very different era. Social media and democratised surveillance technology means that it is possible to circulate evidence of war crimes in real time. Also, even at the best of times, Chechnya is far less accessible than Ukraine. Also, the first war in Chechnya went on for over a year and a half. We are still some way out from that.
@@JamesKerLindsay I cannot say anything about war crimes before the war is over and we get independent investigation on what happend. We had soo many lies by the west and Russia on so many wars before that i have very hard time beliving anything that comes out of their mouth. Im going to stick to my neutrality (for war crimes) and only judge Russia for attacking Ukraine without UN approval. About social media, i mean its a joke to be honest. Anything you say that does not correspond with leftist mind is being marked as a lie and propaganda. That "independent fact-check" is only there to protect liberals feelings which i actualy enojy hurting :)
How many people you think russians killed in Mariupol so far? @nikolahd
@@ogamaniuk I'd say between 200-500. Keep in mind that i never said that they are not killing civilians, i just said they are trying not to, but as they are not trained for those situations and ukrainian military is literaly hiding inside civilian buildings casualties are going to be high. Im not saying its ok, it is very bad but there is a difference.
@@JamesKerLindsay Well, civilians are a collateral damage as USA always pointed that out when bombing other countries. And if Russia really wanted to push hard and clear the area, with enormous amount of civilian death, they could do that. What could US do? Impose sanctions? Well, they already did that, more than 5000 sanctions. Send NATO airplanes and go into 1:1 with nuclear country such as Russia? Give me a break..US killed 500 000 Iraqi children, and nobody gives a fuck.
Everything is much simpler lt's just that Ukrainian natinalists fought in Chechya si it's jyst reverenge
Ukrainians called Kadyrovs Czeczens as "Tiktok forces"-- "тік ток війська кадирова"
Lannister always pays his debt!
so.. some countries are better off without liberal democracy but rather with some sort of control over the people
Atleast they didn't do what Anglo-Saxon did to Natives
Oh and that was extraordinarily democratic!
As Nelson Mandela said your enemy isn't necessarily my enemy. Chechnya may be with Russia out of necessity. The world watched as it got ravaged.
They bent the knee.
👏😐