Stephen Kotkin is a part-time serious man. Somewhere in his book tours he's fallen for the idea that MAGAts' laughter at infantile anti-Democrat japes is the same thing as thoughtful people's applause. It isn't. I admire his books -- and cringe when he abases himself with grade-school appeals to Trump's followers.
i like the way he doesnt use notes, never stumbles and in. total command of the subject and to cover it with such clarity and precision. its fascinating.
@May Day in another talk he gave, someone introduced him as “knowing more about Stalin, than Stalin himself.” He’s incredibly smart, I’ve listened to hours upon hours of his lectures.
For me, a person born in the Soviet Union, most Western historians who talk about the past and present of Eastern Europe do not have a deep understanding of the subject. Stephen, by contrast, has an in-depth knowledge of the subject and a depth of analysis that speaks to the tremendous work he has done to understand the subject.
I agree...I listen to other views in order to think critically and try to have balance...but cant I listen anymore to Mearsheimer and his so called "realist" views...he is too far removed from the human experience of the region.
Quite true. It’s a pity he isn’t a better writer. I just finished his first book in the trilogy on Stalin. There was a wealth of information in there but it was poorly organized. There were times where I felt like he was doing a data dump, and not considering the flow of the narrative. It made the work far less engaging than it could’ve been.
@@voyd1507 he certainly sounds like he’s a Russian advocate, doesn’t he? Here we had western critiques of NATO saying that it had been largely rendered toothless by certain nations not living up to their commitments. If they were truly threatened by NATO, and that was the reason for invading Ukraine, and then they had a very poor grasp of the NATO situation. given that the leaser of Belarus stupidly revealed on national television a strategic map showing the overland invasion of Moldova, thus revealing Russia’s intentions. Russia wasn’t afraid of NATO. They wanted to take their empire back. They didn’t want to liberate Ukraine. They wanted to conquer it. Geographically Ukraine is a potential giant knife stuck underneath the Polish and Baltic underbelly.
I agree I hope fame does not change his politics...it seems once liberals get rich they turn switch to republican...we have such a superficial system sometimes.
@@drstrangelove4998 You are correct. That’s a shame really. He actually described the problem he has talking about disinformation. Trumps opponents are inept. They can’t get over the problem of telling 30-35% are simply ignorant.
Even those who are of opposing political views should study Kotkin's style, especially if they do public speaking. The guy has a very dominant presence. Very sharp and charismatic. Asking the questioner "what do you think?" is a great tool for catching someone off guard because its rarely used in debate. Supreme confidence.
@May Day if you're a fan of Kotkin then I highly recommend to check out Stephen F. Cohen as well. He was a professor at Prinston and NYU who specialised in Russian history and spent many years living there. Sadly he passed away last year but his knowledge, style and views remind me a lot of Kotkin. Recommend looking up his lectures on the post cold war and the Ukraine crisis. And if you like those then check out his books as well
Love his analogies. Last presentation he said.. I tend not to use averages. Your head could be in the freezer and your feet could be in a fire so on average your warm.
Joe Kelley I love his eye roll at the snide comment the kid makes about the Trump administration "needing more than that." It's 100% pure disgust at the close mindedness...you can see it in his eyes and then Kotkin gathers himself and continues. He is clearly very disappointed at the inability of students to think critically about politics.
Everything presented at the WFB Jr Program is brilliant, their guests are always at the top of their fields. Does a great honor to the singular political genius of WFB Jr himself.
G-E-N-I-U-S and fun to listen to; I’m being taught so much valuable material. I heard him indirectly how he has been so successful? He works so very hard. A great example for me! Thanks
We need to listen as a voting people to the Kotkins. Unfortunately news presenters do not have this kind of depth. If we can expand the attention span of the population we won't be deceived. Unfortunately divide and conquer is being applied to American citizens. We are supposed to be educated and informed together as a check on political power in our own country.
Krotkin's analysis of the potential of Ukraine to resist Russian invasion, around five years on, looks distinctly wide of the mark, but then, as he says, he does not predict the future. The invasion of Donbas happened not long after so perhaps this was the pivotal event in what unfolded later. Putin expected the invasion of Ukraine to be very much like the invasion of Georgia. How big a miscalculation that was.
He is brilliant, brilliantly funny and charisma-wise off the charts. Too bad he wasnt teaching when i was a student and I would have gotten straight A's
Where's the version 2.0 of this lecture? His points about Georgia is very interesting ... I would love to hear his opinions about the current situation. He's great, btw.
I think the point that almost everyone in the USA missed is that at the end of the Soviet system Soviet people were not considering themselves defeated, we considered disillusioned in Communism and trying to get over it. The felling of being a deflated nation that was gutted by the victors came later. And it became widely assumed that US, if unopposed would take the nukes and level what remains of the country. That was the sentiment that brought Putin to power.
@@davidlocke7541 Germany was leveled during the war, there was not much to level, but the Marshall Plan helped rebuild the western part of Germany at least. There was no Marshall Plan for the USSR.
@@mikhailryzhov9419 A larger percentage of German infrastructure was destroyed. Germany had few natural resources. None of the USSR (Russia) infrastructure was destroyed. USSR (Russia) has many natural resources. The KGB/FSB/Putin took power through Yeltsin and proceeded to rob Russia and Russians.
@@SBCBears A large percent of Soviet infrastructure and industry was scrapped. Russia is still behind USSR in terms of industry. It was not bombed, but economic and political reforms were about as effective.
@@mikhailryzhov9419 Not true. The Soviet Union (and satellites) were invited to participate in the Marshall Plan but declined to do so (some at Stalin's urging).
"There's only one time when democracy is bad: when a group uses democratic processes to end democracy." Prescient. And has recently been a close run for us. Thankfully, perhaps we've turned the trend around for now.
Wow, Andrew. So much to unpack. I don’t hear where he supports any specific person. From the talks I’ve heard from Stephen, I hear that he takes a very wide view, big picture. From what I remember, near the end of the Obama administration, there were fears that Barack would not concede power too. Donald cannot do that, not at this point in our system. It is true that if given the right conditions, Donald would definitely jump at the chance. The conditions do not exist yet. Yes, executive branch power has been increasing since 1945. Stephen’s point is correct, our fundamental institutions are sound. Of course, if we let them erode, they may yet fall apart, and then we get what we get. Donald has not done anything exceptional so far. A lot of crazy rhetoric of course. I do not like that. The system compensates for that. Donald is not Caligula. We’re not there. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance. And a lot of discussion. I agree with his assessment that a strong center is critical to keeping us glued together as a society.
@@andrewdeen1 ...wait what? Ive never heard him express support for Trump. In fact I've heard him be very critical in his Sphere of Influence lectures. He specifically says Trumps is Russia and China's wet dream and that he undermines the U.S internationally.
@@jon9428 Jon How does Trump undermine the US's position? To me Trump has done several things advocated for in this video. He has negoted from a point of power in things like NATO and is making the tough decision to up to china. I will have to go find his other lectures to see his take.
Stephan is genius but as a man who lived in Ukraine he missed two critical factors when he spoke about Ukraines capabilities: 1- It's uniqueness in terms of being progressive and traditional, call it collaborative uniqueness, resulting in Arabic like social and traditional values are preserved, yet like Europeans where they are progressive in mentality leading to having great education systems 2- Their strong hearts and resilience rooted from having devastating centuries upon centuries, they dont go down without a great and near impossible fight back.
I think he hadn't given that much attention to Ukraine at the time of this lecture. These days he does say that he underestimated Ukraine (as most did). Good luck!
@@uku4171 coming to live in Ukraine for a while and have families there, I expected brave with great military potential due to high intellect and capabilities in computers and systems, thanks for the reply!
Thanks for making this video completely unwatchable bc of the number of adverts. It’s actually disgusting that you did this, because this is a very important vid.
0:02:40 - J.P.2 : Be Not Afraid 0:03:15 - 0:03:42 - RUS Thing Gone to Silly 0:04:05 - Never as crazy as now 0:04:10 - Attention & Hysteria 0:04:30 - Challenges 0:04:40 - Authority Authoritarian 0:04:50 - Woodrow Wilson School 0:05:00 - What happened? 0:05:25 - Not sophisticated 0:05:58 - Waiting to have 0:06:15 - USA Mismanage 0:06:56 - Cold War won 0:07:12 - Demos 0:07:15 - Cold War not perfect 0:08:05 - How to manage Pwr.? 0:09:25 - 0:09:44 - Open question 0:09:50 - Were not in a good place 0:10:24 - Forget USA domestic support 0:10:48 - 0:11:15 - Hacking not the cause 0:11:43 - Lost? 0:12:28 - One side lost 0:12:35 - 0:13:00 - Facts have to come out 0:13:04 - Can't be afraid 0:13:05 - Br-exit 0:13:15 - Votes uncover hidden discontent 0:13:26 - A lotta lying 0:13:31 - Want voices of people heard 0:13:52 - Imperfect vehicle 0:14:00 - 1933 0:14:18 - Not troubled 0:14:38 - Our democracy is secure 0:15:05 - RUS obsessed 0:15:30 - Blackmail - Collusion - Compromise 0:15:42 - No blackmail 0:16:09 - No collusion 0:16:30 - Content of meeting 0:17:05 - Need more evidence of compromise 0:17:55 - Not sufficient evidence 0:18:04 - 0:18:10 - Early stages 0:18:26 - Dis-information 0:18:58 - 0:19:25 - Meeting took place 0:19:50 - Differentiate True and False 0:20:22 - 0:20:50 - 0:21:15 - Now to discuss policy 0:21:50 - I was just like you 0:22:16 - Policy USA and RUS 0:22:26 - Once again , it's NOT a misunderstanding 1:09:30 - Principle Strategic Aim 1:10:55 - Spheres of Influence . . . And then the West . . . valuable . 1:12:35 - All FLAWED . . . That's the paradox of djt . . . hard to read . . . some substance . 1:13:07 - Think about this (history) . . . 80% of WASH DC (effort) dedicated to (it) . . . 1:15:05 - We don't want that to happen again . . . Only if detrimental. cost/benefit. 1:17:40 - What tools are practical ? 1:18:20 - Rising tide to lift all boats . . . Talking : Nice boat ya got there . . . 1:19:05 - Social-deep-relations but not . . . thick enough . . . relate . . . interact . . . _______ - FOCUS , DANIELSON 1:20:10 - Much easier : We win-die 1:20:55 - Displacement . . . relative rise to our level and relative watch rise to our level 1:21:30 - Balance A & B . . . Then: Nice sand-air-boat U have there . . . not: I nuke-kill U 1:22:00 - Friend-tools : Allies & Relationships 1:23_00 - Watch vocabulary . . . Selling a deal . . . 1:23:25 - Creating a Stable Asia: An Agenda for a U.S.-China Balance of Power _________ MICHAEL D. SWAINE, WENYAN DENG, AUBE REY LESCURE _________ The Western Pacific is experiencing a fundamental and potentially _________ destabilizing military and economic power transition driven primarily _________ by China’s economic and military rise and a corresponding relative _________ decline in American power Published October 26, 2016 1:23:50 - Idea manage some and not oppose ALL _________ Aristotle : Fortitue & Temperance & Justice & Prudence (practical skill) 1:24:15 - 1:25:30 - Power Asymmetry of the West . . . How ? What ? 1:26:25 - The STATE & The COERCION ! THAT's THE TICKET ! . . . RUS-HIS-101 1:26:40 - Asymmetry of Power 1:27:05 - Complex problem for RUS : Big Is not always Better 1:27:10 - Writings in F-A by Stephen Kotkin _________ 1. POLITICS & SOCIETY JUL/AUG 2018 _______ Realist World By Stephen Kotkin _______ Today, as ever, great-power politics will drive world events. That means the course _______ of the coming century will largely be determined by the relationship between China . . . _________ 2. THE BEST OF 2017 NOV/DEC 2017 _______ When Stalin Faced Hitler By Stephen Kotkin _______ . . . The story of the fateful night in 1941 when, after years of mutual nonaggression, _______ Germany finally attacked the Soviet Union. _________ 3. FROM THE ARCHIVES MAY/JUN 2016 _______ Russia's Perpetual Geopolitics By Stephen Kotkin _______ For centuries, Russia has been haunted by geopolitical ambitions that exceed its _______ capabilities. President Vladimir Putin’s recent attempts to secure Moscow a prominent _________ 4. BEST OF 2015 MAR/APR 2015 _______ The Resistible Rise of Vladimir Putin By Stephen Kotkin _______ Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vaunted “stability” has turned into spoliation. _______ The methods he used to fix the corrupt, dysfunctional post-Soviet state have... _________ 5. WMD & PROLIFERATION NOV 24, 2013 _______ Rouhani's Gorbachev Moment By Stephen Kotkin _____ Could Iranian President Hassan Rouhani be another Mikhail Gorbachev -- a real reformer _____ who opens his country’s political system and creates the space for détente with . . . _________ 6. POLITICAL ECONOMY NOV 4, 2009 _______ An annotated Foreign Affairs syllabus on communism. By Stephen Kotkin _________ 7. U.S. FOREIGN POLICY SEP/OCT 2009 _______ The Unbalanced Triangle By Stephen Kotkin _______ The Chinese-Russian relationship is more opportunistic than strategic, Bobo Lo _______ argues. The United States is stuck watching from the sidelines and may be pushing _______ Moscow . . . _________ 8. RUSSIA & FSU SEP/OCT 2007 By Stephen Kotkin _______ Russian Foreign Policy in the Twenty-first Century and the Shadow of the Past 1:34:04 - Investment in infrastructure (in Puerto Rico) if funded by Chinese ? 1:34:54 - Remember some history . . . 1975 . . . 1:35:25 - In March , 2017 . . . 1975 hope was market-economy and rising boats . . . 1:36:20 - HELLO ! 1:37:00 - What will happen if politically closed ? . . . Investing is from outside for now . . . 1:37:45 - Their decision-making process is a mystery . 1:38:00 - To relate one needs to know one's self and the other. 1:38:12 - We have not had to relate to such a paradox : IF a closed political system , THEN _________ not big and strong . . . 1:38:25 - You can't have private property without the rule of law , except you can . 1:38:32 - You can't have a successful market-economy without the rule of law except . . . 1:38:38 - You can't have the 2nd biggest economy in the world with a communist party _________ system of government except . . . 1:38:45 - That's the problem (or relating West-to-China) except, if you can . 1:39:00 - Reports of deaths 1:39:40 - Suspicious . . . Christopher Steele is missing 1:41:00 - People who were sources of the document 1:41:50 - leaks of verified data and false data and unverified data 1:42:00 - A mystery remains. 1:42:40 - What is social science ? _________ Actively seeking information that disproves what you believe 1:43:00 - We tend to do the opposite : We have CONFIRMATION BIAS
Yeah, the usual shoving of buckets of shit down dumb sheeple's throat: that's how I call it! You've grown too fat an lazy on that diet so you cannot even see it!
True, this was more opinion than fact, but 'facts' are not readily self evident in the realm of international relations. This was one man giving a very well informed opinion while asking those engaged in discourse with him to examine and relate their own opinions so that they could together approach something closer to what is true. It was indeed very Socratic, and those of you dismissing the discourse out of hand are almost certainly just as enmeshed in some degree of ideological conformity as you claim others to be.
That US has a criminal regime, kills everyone who doesnt agree with them, whose best buds cut throats live on TV? No one gonna acknowledge that, Clint.
@@walterm.robertsiiiphd2157 that election was a fraud. Dem lawyers ran around to important swing states a sued to drastically loosen election laws to push through this mail in scheme with low accountability, then in those states the big city dem machines pumped out votes for a week after Election Day until they flipped, this inspires no confidence. Trump is right
@@johndoe-fq7ez Lol. For you to be right hundreds of thousands of both Rs and Ds, of all sorts of professions will need to have been in some conspiracy. And all keep quiet, all have somehow hidden all evidence. Or....the reality TV host lost.
@@SandraFerreira-me7xb nothing he mentioned requires hundreds of thousands of proffesionals... A few thousand bad actors is all it would take, in addition to fellow conspirators in authority giving them cover
Why do Yale students, including graduate students, constantly use "kind of ..." they seem to be unable to ask a question without inserting "like kind of." This is how the most elite young minds in America form a thought?
@@TheWaveofbabies - No it's not called that. It's the opposite of nuance, it's additionally vague and the difficulty of the issue should make questions easier to develop. In any case just ask without like, maybe, sort of, or kind of, and you immediately present as a better communicator, because you are. This is Yale not Fartland Community College. In two years any of these nitwits children of priviledge can start on Wall St for $165K and begin their lives of supposed superiority and real advantage.
what did you expect from a leftist/liberal leaning school trying to grasp facts. It’s hard for them to do without hating everything ... (kind of) like stepping out of their comfort zone.
@@hellokitty8552 do you even know who William Buckley was, and what kind of views you're likely to subscribe to if you're in a club named after him? I would be interested in seeing some examples of students not in a leftist/liberal institution grasping facts in a superior manner.
The way to have a center in politics is not necessarily institutions, but a multi party system. If minoroty parties are proportionally represented, there will be competition for the moderate voters.
Outstanding student loans and credit card debt engendered by frivolous purchases are two of the strongest governing influences in our lives. Tennessee Ernie Ford resonated with the citizens of the former Soviet Union through his universal lyrics, " I owe my soul to the company store..."
On the question of Russia and the defense of their imperialism: clearly Russia has put its boots on other nations land and dared any power to stop them. We will now set about correcting this new state which was simply reconstituted Tsarism. Believe me, the problem is superable and it is far smaller than what we had with the Cold War. Russia has two cards: geopolitical position and fossil fuels. Fossil fuels is a fading power and mobility weakens their geopolitical centrism. Time will play out, Russia's opening bid is on the table, but for now, we hold a dominant hand.
I agree, Jim. I believe the doctrine of ‘Making the world safe for democracy’ was a Wilsonian platitude. One of the reasons I don’t like the Wilson admin. Wilson looks like a hypocrite and a corporatist. Certainly a skilled and daft politician. I would not have trusted a single thing he said after 1917. Just like I didn’t vote for Obama in 2012. Barack didn’t square his policies with his campaign promises, so I could not in good conscience support him any more. We should not be interventionist. You know, Adams, ‘We should not go abroad in search of dragons to slay’?!
"Imagine me against Lebron James. It's not gonna look pretty, is it. Now image a 5-year-old..." I wasn't paying attention there and thought this was about boxing... In all seriousness though, great lecture. I'm glad to see CZcams's algorithm resonate with Kotkin's reception.
If I were forced to find a sole factor in the confusion of our present geopolitics: it is petroleum. It is for petroleum that we support exceedingly repressive regimes, turn our back to friends and execute cruel war on peoples without reason. Now there is no reason to fear for the future as petroleum will decline in importance but will we, the citizens of The United States, realize our own limits and accept the inherent responsibility of our position and stop serving corporate interests which are not identical with American interests?
That was a pretty sophisticated counter argument. I don't agree that government is essentially a mental construct although it may well be so for the many stateless persons we have on the planet today. I feel that, at its best, government is the sum of citizen desires as to economy, domestic laws and international relations. The moral imperative is easy to track (the debate concerning abortion, eg.) and the cross talk about government being "just a state of mind" can be camouflaged white nationalism which sacrifices the nation itself to secure sole rule. Quite a few are skeptical of government because they are fleeing a dysfunctional one and illegally appropriating another. No?@@jason8434
Well said Jason! That many people are incapable of thinking for themselves I won't contest. That is evident every night on the news if you can stand to watch filtered garbage. That I for one can think for myself poses myself as a citizen in the true sense of the word. That I care for others allows me to generalize about others. There are more than a few psychopathy candidates in our midst. I just can't agree that man isn't capable of self governing and that therefore he should just give up and let some amoral buffoon have his way. I vote in a flawed system which is better than any other. To separate oneself from the system is hardly a solution and I am solution driven. @@jason8434
@@jason8434 Jason, we do govern ourselves every day but that applies to what I do with myself and no-one else. Self government is a tautology and is indeed impossible for the peaceful interworking among sizable populations. I do see the value of the idea which was put forth in the words of Jesus that every man should conduct himself in a manner that would not threaten any other man and that The Golden Rule should be our daily guide. But governing a large community such as a modern nation state has to be representative. If our representative doesn't represent us then we vote him out. That's the best we can do and it's a far cry from the anarchy that seems to be preferable to many.
@@jason8434 Jason, then let us who do understand, explain the system to those who take other people's word for truth out of necessity. You seem a good man to do this. And we must remember that even though we may understand a thing or two that does not entitle us in any way to usurp the rights of others. Those rights were given regardless of sophistication or property. I am both idealistic and pragmatic in this regard.
@@jason8434 Well we have to trust our fellow humans. We do this every day in other matters (eg. driving on the highways) so we will just have to do it with governance. It is trust that we are short of these days and selling mistrust has become an industry. If we can't keep the faith no one else will. Cheers.
1:33:00 China. What a difference 5 years makes. SK was correct about all the things he said about a closed communist country but was perplexed at how it could possibly succeed. It seemed to be succeeding in 2017 but we see now that the closed country was truly a paper dragon and as with the USSR, outward perception was more important than true success and China is now on the verge of imploding which may make the Great Leap Forward look like "Happy Days".
Remember: According to a report by Forbes: ....Picking his way through the Soviet archives that Boris Yeltsin had just thrown open, in 1991 Tim Sebastian, a reporter for the London Times, came across an arresting memorandum. Composed in 1983 by Victor Chebrikov, the top man at the KGB, the memorandum was addressed to Yuri Andropov, the top man in the entire USSR. The subject: Sen. Edward Kennedy. ....“On 9-10 May of this year,” the May 14 memorandum explained, “Sen. Edward Kennedy’s close friend and trusted confidant [John] Tunney was in Moscow.” (Tunney was Kennedy’s law school roommate and a former Democratic senator from California.) “The senator charged Tunney to convey the following message, through confidential contacts, to the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Y. Andropov.” .....Kennedy’s message was simple. He proposed an unabashed quid pro quo. Kennedy would lend Andropov a hand in dealing with President Reagan. In return, the Soviet leader would lend the Democratic Party a hand in challenging Reagan in the 1984 presidential election. “The only real potential threats to Reagan are problems of war and peace and Soviet-American relations,” the memorandum stated. “These issues, according to the senator, will without a doubt become the most important of the election campaign.”
Having lived in Ukraine, for years Post Orange Revolution up to 8 months prior to the full scale Russian invasion. This man is the oppitomy of detailed thoughtfulness. I've listened to many of Kotkin's talks. I always learn something new and, get a deeper perspective on subjects I thought I was well informed on. Thank you once again Dr. Kotkin. Once again mission accomplished. 1:08:27
I remember coming across a presentation of his from years back. He was making wild predictions about European banking that didn't come to fruition and it actually just turned out to be a load of nonsense. The video was still up but the comments had been disabled.
Zeihan is great, but I think he sidesteps issues with changing demographic composition as related to state and cultural stability. Still very good to listen to, and I can recommend his books.
Wow @36:30 dismantles an entire alt-right argument - "unite our enemies, divide our friends" ... also crazy that he plays out Ukrainian War 5 years beforehand around 55:00 ... What a genius
The theory is that democracies don't fight other democracies, not that they don't go to war at all. Democracies tend to be more accountable to their people and more crucially more transparent; it's easier to see how credible a democracy is when it places a red line by seeing what the opposition is saying. That's not the case with authoritarian regimes as much. I am not serving the theory full justice, but that's the argument. Not necessarily true either, but it's a strong argument.
@@NC7491 The problem is the subjective way of defining who's a democracy and who isn't. For example Britain went to war in 1914 in part to "save the world for democracy" (although they used the excuse of the violation of Belgian neutrality) even though Germany had full male suffrage aged 26 and upwards while Britain still had property requirements limiting the percentage of the adult male population who could vote to around 1/3. (The German system did have the kaiser appoint the chancellor which made it more autocratic in that sense, but it wasn't clearly less democratic across the board).
The problem is that Russia wants to be a European country, not a Eurasian and certainly not an Asian country. And it's all three. Give Vladivostok some love.
Kotkins lectures are so well done. I really enjoy listening to this intellectual man
Stephen Kotkin is a part-time serious man. Somewhere in his book tours he's fallen for the idea that MAGAts' laughter at infantile anti-Democrat japes is the same thing as thoughtful people's applause. It isn't.
I admire his books -- and cringe when he abases himself with grade-school appeals to Trump's followers.
i like the way he doesnt use notes, never stumbles and in. total command of the subject and to cover it with such clarity and precision. its fascinating.
No one presents this topic so clear and simple as you do Mr. Joe Pesci.
Iiuuyyyyyyy
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Brooklyn accent. Milton Friedman had it too.
Nothing like JP
@@ijunkie 😅
“I teach everything under the sun, but I don’t teach conformity.”
perfect
Stop teaching and start listening.
@May Day in another talk he gave, someone introduced him as “knowing more about Stalin, than Stalin himself.” He’s incredibly smart, I’ve listened to hours upon hours of his lectures.
I love his: "What do you think?"
Excellent teacher who loves his job.
For me, a person born in the Soviet Union, most Western historians who talk about the past and present of Eastern Europe do not have a deep understanding of the subject. Stephen, by contrast, has an in-depth knowledge of the subject and a depth of analysis that speaks to the tremendous work he has done to understand the subject.
I agree...I listen to other views in order to think critically and try to have balance...but cant I listen anymore to Mearsheimer and his so called "realist" views...he is too far removed from the human experience of the region.
@@ldhorricks I'm afraid that in case of J.Mearsheimer is worse than that. I think he is peddling Russia's cause.
@@voyd1507 I agree.
Quite true. It’s a pity he isn’t a better writer. I just finished his first book in the trilogy on Stalin. There was a wealth of information in there but it was poorly organized. There were times where I felt like he was doing a data dump, and not considering the flow of the narrative. It made the work far less engaging than it could’ve been.
@@voyd1507 he certainly sounds like he’s a Russian advocate, doesn’t he? Here we had western critiques of NATO saying that it had been largely rendered toothless by certain nations not living up to their commitments. If they were truly threatened by NATO, and that was the reason for invading Ukraine, and then they had a very poor grasp of the NATO situation. given that the leaser of Belarus stupidly revealed on national television a strategic map showing the overland invasion of Moldova, thus revealing Russia’s intentions.
Russia wasn’t afraid of NATO. They wanted to take their empire back. They didn’t want to liberate Ukraine. They wanted to conquer it. Geographically Ukraine is a potential giant knife stuck underneath the Polish and Baltic underbelly.
I just discovered Stephen Kotkin and am loving it. He's so wise and no nonsense.
Yes 😊
Me too! And he’s engaging. I want to see him everywhere!
That's because he was in Goodfellas and Casino with Rob De Niro
@@dmonarredmonarre3076 and my cousin Vinny
He wants you to understand what he is saying. Very refreshing.
After eighteen months, this lecture stands up very well indeed. Historical knowledge vindicated.
@kcotte59 he was not saying the steele dossier was true... you dont listen very well.
Five years later… same.
@@sailorr4287 Five and a half years...not so much.
@@watching99134 in what way?
I appreciate Stephen Kotkin, a great researcher and professor.
I wonder what Mr. Kotkin's opinion on the status of Democracy is, now, in Jan. 2021, 3 years hence.
One year later it’s looking more like a FBI false flag deep state operation.
5 years on, and I'd love to see Dr. Kotkin do reaction video while watching this one, and commenting on what he thinks now.
No kidding. You’re exactly right….
Dr. Kotkin is a weathercock. They Who pay him he talks on their advantages. Kinda of doing his living. Biolitter…
I was thinking exactly the same thing.
Probably the same.
He was right
"Happy hour" is picking this guy's mind. If I was in that classroom I would stay as long as he's willing to stay and leave partying for tomorrow...
This aged incredibly well
Things have accelerated since your comment. When Russia visits, Russia calls you tourists.
The more I listen to S. Kotkin, the more respect I have for the men. Thank you.
Is Stephen still good on time? Yes, I think Stephen is still good on time.
Every lecture 😂😂😂
Would love to see an update on his views on Trump and international geo-politics
I agree I hope fame does not change his politics...it seems once liberals get rich they turn switch to republican...we have such a superficial system sometimes.
Yes, that would be great!
This didn’t age very well, an update would be interesting.
@@drstrangelove4998
You are correct. That’s a shame really. He actually described the problem he has talking about disinformation.
Trumps opponents are inept. They can’t get over the problem of telling 30-35% are simply ignorant.
He is a liberal crusader, don’t expect anything else.
Even those who are of opposing political views should study Kotkin's style, especially if they do public speaking. The guy has a very dominant presence. Very sharp and charismatic. Asking the questioner "what do you think?" is a great tool for catching someone off guard because its rarely used in debate. Supreme confidence.
Hell, I teach space science at a local museum and I'm even going to use that technique. It's so simple and yet so damn powerful at the same time.
Answering a question with a question can also come off as evasive. Be sure you actually have an answer to offer as well.
He's very good at the Socratic Method; one doesn't even know that he's doing it,
@@rogerwilco4397 good point!
@May Day if you're a fan of Kotkin then I highly recommend to check out Stephen F. Cohen as well. He was a professor at Prinston and NYU who specialised in Russian history and spent many years living there. Sadly he passed away last year but his knowledge, style and views remind me a lot of Kotkin. Recommend looking up his lectures on the post cold war and the Ukraine crisis. And if you like those then check out his books as well
I do wonder if Prof. Kotkin's views on Trump have changed in the year and a half since this talk was first delivered.
we need more Stephen Kotkin, to understand Russia and Putin!!! Good job!! Thank you
Domeniko check out his discussion of Stalin
@@kathryncrowleybryan5844 I'm reading his book right now))
Love his analogies. Last presentation he said.. I tend not to use averages. Your head could be in the freezer and your feet could be in a fire so on average your warm.
Fascinating to listen to this in 2023 - so much has changed but at the same time, nothing has changed.
This is my first viewing of this Prof. I love the way he asks the student, that asks a question, “What do you think?”
Yes 😊 love from Sweden ❤
I think he learned that from being a good parent. Also, from the (old) Discovery Channel slogan, “Question Everything”.
Joe Kelley I love his eye roll at the snide comment the kid makes about the Trump administration "needing more than that." It's 100% pure disgust at the close mindedness...you can see it in his eyes and then Kotkin gathers himself and continues. He is clearly very disappointed at the inability of students to think critically about politics.
love how he stayed and took so many questions
Kotkin is an out and out educator. A rare and precious beast!
Everything presented at the WFB Jr Program is brilliant, their guests are always at the top of their fields. Does a great honor to the singular political genius of WFB Jr himself.
G-E-N-I-U-S and fun to listen to; I’m being taught so much valuable material. I heard him indirectly how he has been so successful? He works so very hard. A great example for me! Thanks
fwagawg
4 days after this lecture I started my one year mandatory military service at 28 years of age. Geez.
Awesome talk and exchange. I learned so much and at 62 was reminded of some things I should have been holding more tightly.
Update please.... ASAP.
America needs more Kotkin bigly.
Without using any note, he is able to explain the answers to questions... he is an amazing professor
We need to listen as a voting people to the Kotkins. Unfortunately news presenters do not have this kind of depth. If we can expand the attention span of the population we won't be deceived.
Unfortunately divide and conquer is being applied to American citizens. We are supposed to be educated and informed together as a check on political power in our own country.
I'd love to hear an update on his opinion of the Trump administration in 2020
Yes ... update ASAP
What do you think it would be?
Kotkins a goddamn class act.
Dry as a bone.
Looking back at these discussions in terms of where we are now, and what has transpired since are always "haunting" and disturbing in some way.
What an amazing teacher
Impressive to see this lecture years after... Impressive...
Krotkin's analysis of the potential of Ukraine to resist Russian invasion, around five years on, looks distinctly wide of the mark, but then, as he says, he does not predict the future. The invasion of Donbas happened not long after so perhaps this was the pivotal event in what unfolded later. Putin expected the invasion of Ukraine to be very much like the invasion of Georgia. How big a miscalculation that was.
He is brilliant, brilliantly funny and charisma-wise off the charts. Too bad he wasnt teaching when i was a student and I would have gotten straight A's
Kotkin strikes me as a true intellectual.
Watching this in the fall of 2022 ... here is Stephen Kotkin prophesying on Putin's scenario for this ongoing war 51:29.
Where's the version 2.0 of this lecture? His points about Georgia is very interesting ... I would love to hear his opinions about the current situation. He's great, btw.
Great historian... his books on Stalin are incredible. If you like his work, check out Robert Caro's monumental work on LBJ.
I would love to hear Kotkin's analysis of the Mueller report.
88Gibson LesPaul mueller report said trump and campaign did not collide with Russians. Sorry bro
@@mudkatt2003 Thank you Mr. Kotkin.
Meuller is my replacement for Don Watts.
@@mudkatt2003 *cough* individual one *cough*
@@catsupchutney you're welcome bro
I think the point that almost everyone in the USA missed is that at the end of the Soviet system Soviet people were not considering themselves defeated, we considered disillusioned in Communism and trying to get over it. The felling of being a deflated nation that was gutted by the victors came later. And it became widely assumed that US, if unopposed would take the nukes and level what remains of the country. That was the sentiment that brought Putin to power.
What did USA do with Germany lost its war? Did we level it? No.
@@davidlocke7541 Germany was leveled during the war, there was not much to level, but the Marshall Plan helped rebuild the western part of Germany at least. There was no Marshall Plan for the USSR.
@@mikhailryzhov9419 A larger percentage of German infrastructure was destroyed. Germany had few natural resources. None of the USSR (Russia) infrastructure was destroyed. USSR (Russia) has many natural resources.
The KGB/FSB/Putin took power through Yeltsin and proceeded to rob Russia and Russians.
@@SBCBears A large percent of Soviet infrastructure and industry was scrapped. Russia is still behind USSR in terms of industry. It was not bombed, but economic and political reforms were about as effective.
@@mikhailryzhov9419 Not true. The Soviet Union (and satellites) were invited to participate in the Marshall Plan but declined to do so (some at Stalin's urging).
Would love to have a transcript of Stephen's presentation here.
"There's only one time when democracy is bad: when a group uses democratic processes to end democracy." Prescient. And has recently been a close run for us. Thankfully, perhaps we've turned the trend around for now.
Don't count on it
Anybody else get some strong Joe Pesci vibes?
absolutely! I made a similar comparison on the video of his lecture at IWM Vienna :D
Holy shit yeah
Carson Powers bigly. ... this gentlemen is a savant of the intrinsic ... deepest take by Professor Kotkin
Pesci: "Hey Spider, Spider, where is my Cutty and water (Cutty Sark) ?" see movie "Goodfellas."
Lol, yes instantaneous!
Wonderful.....thanks Dr. Kotkin.....getting your books!!!
“Christopher Steele was a high quality level guy”
That didn’t age well.
Shows what you know😂😂😂
@@kxkxkxkx oh no, I’m wrong? Wow, are you an expert on Steele?
Does this video really need 20 adverts?
I didn't like him at first. Now I listen to him very, very carefully. He is a treasure belonging to all humanity!
I wish I was smart enough to have been able to attend Yale. They get all the best lecturers
Well informed man. Thank you for posting it.
The first 30 seconds, I thought, Seinfeld episode "high talker".
I would like to hear his analysis today.
what about now?
Wow, Andrew. So much to unpack. I don’t hear where he supports any specific person. From the talks I’ve heard from Stephen, I hear that he takes a very wide view, big picture. From what I remember, near the end of the Obama administration, there were fears that Barack would not concede power too. Donald cannot do that, not at this point in our system. It is true that if given the right conditions, Donald would definitely jump at the chance. The conditions do not exist yet. Yes, executive branch power has been increasing since 1945. Stephen’s point is correct, our fundamental institutions are sound. Of course, if we let them erode, they may yet fall apart, and then we get what we get. Donald has not done anything exceptional so far. A lot of crazy rhetoric of course. I do not like that. The system compensates for that. Donald is not Caligula. We’re not there. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance. And a lot of discussion. I agree with his assessment that a strong center is critical to keeping us glued together as a society.
Yes, we need an update
@@andrewdeen1 ...wait what? Ive never heard him express support for Trump. In fact I've heard him be very critical in his Sphere of Influence lectures. He specifically says Trumps is Russia and China's wet dream and that he undermines the U.S internationally.
@@jon9428 Jon How does Trump undermine the US's position? To me Trump has done several things advocated for in this video. He has negoted from a point of power in things like NATO and is making the tough decision to up to china. I will have to go find his other lectures to see his take.
Stephan is genius but as a man who lived in Ukraine he missed two critical factors when he spoke about Ukraines capabilities:
1- It's uniqueness in terms of being progressive and traditional, call it collaborative uniqueness, resulting in Arabic like social and traditional values are preserved, yet like Europeans where they are progressive in mentality leading to having great education systems
2- Their strong hearts and resilience rooted from having devastating centuries upon centuries, they dont go down without a great and near impossible fight back.
I think he hadn't given that much attention to Ukraine at the time of this lecture. These days he does say that he underestimated Ukraine (as most did). Good luck!
@@uku4171 coming to live in Ukraine for a while and have families there, I expected brave with great military potential due to high intellect and capabilities in computers and systems, thanks for the reply!
Thanks for making this video completely unwatchable bc of the number of adverts. It’s actually disgusting that you did this, because this is a very important vid.
BooHoo. Complaining about FREE material.
Subscription to CZcams premium is well worth it to avoid advertising.
What a personality, thoroughly enjoyed the lecture.
0:02:40 - J.P.2 : Be Not Afraid
0:03:15 -
0:03:42 - RUS Thing Gone to Silly
0:04:05 - Never as crazy as now
0:04:10 - Attention & Hysteria
0:04:30 - Challenges
0:04:40 - Authority Authoritarian
0:04:50 - Woodrow Wilson School
0:05:00 - What happened?
0:05:25 - Not sophisticated
0:05:58 - Waiting to have
0:06:15 - USA Mismanage
0:06:56 - Cold War won
0:07:12 - Demos
0:07:15 - Cold War not perfect
0:08:05 - How to manage Pwr.?
0:09:25 -
0:09:44 - Open question
0:09:50 - Were not in a good place
0:10:24 - Forget USA domestic support
0:10:48 -
0:11:15 - Hacking not the cause
0:11:43 - Lost?
0:12:28 - One side lost
0:12:35 -
0:13:00 - Facts have to come out
0:13:04 - Can't be afraid
0:13:05 - Br-exit
0:13:15 - Votes uncover hidden discontent
0:13:26 - A lotta lying
0:13:31 - Want voices of people heard
0:13:52 - Imperfect vehicle
0:14:00 - 1933
0:14:18 - Not troubled
0:14:38 - Our democracy is secure
0:15:05 - RUS obsessed
0:15:30 - Blackmail - Collusion - Compromise
0:15:42 - No blackmail
0:16:09 - No collusion
0:16:30 - Content of meeting
0:17:05 - Need more evidence of compromise
0:17:55 - Not sufficient evidence
0:18:04 -
0:18:10 - Early stages
0:18:26 - Dis-information
0:18:58 -
0:19:25 - Meeting took place
0:19:50 - Differentiate True and False
0:20:22 -
0:20:50 -
0:21:15 - Now to discuss policy
0:21:50 - I was just like you
0:22:16 - Policy USA and RUS
0:22:26 - Once again , it's NOT a misunderstanding
1:09:30 - Principle Strategic Aim
1:10:55 - Spheres of Influence . . . And then the West . . . valuable .
1:12:35 - All FLAWED . . . That's the paradox of djt . . . hard to read . . . some substance .
1:13:07 - Think about this (history) . . . 80% of WASH DC (effort) dedicated to (it) . . .
1:15:05 - We don't want that to happen again . . . Only if detrimental. cost/benefit.
1:17:40 - What tools are practical ?
1:18:20 - Rising tide to lift all boats . . . Talking : Nice boat ya got there . . .
1:19:05 - Social-deep-relations but not . . . thick enough . . . relate . . . interact . . .
_______ - FOCUS , DANIELSON
1:20:10 - Much easier : We win-die
1:20:55 - Displacement . . . relative rise to our level and relative watch rise to our level
1:21:30 - Balance A & B . . . Then: Nice sand-air-boat U have there . . . not: I nuke-kill U
1:22:00 - Friend-tools : Allies & Relationships
1:23_00 - Watch vocabulary . . . Selling a deal . . .
1:23:25 - Creating a Stable Asia: An Agenda for a U.S.-China Balance of Power
_________ MICHAEL D. SWAINE, WENYAN DENG, AUBE REY LESCURE
_________ The Western Pacific is experiencing a fundamental and potentially
_________ destabilizing military and economic power transition driven primarily
_________ by China’s economic and military rise and a corresponding relative
_________ decline in American power Published October 26, 2016
1:23:50 - Idea manage some and not oppose ALL
_________ Aristotle : Fortitue & Temperance & Justice & Prudence (practical skill)
1:24:15 -
1:25:30 - Power Asymmetry of the West . . . How ? What ?
1:26:25 - The STATE & The COERCION ! THAT's THE TICKET ! . . . RUS-HIS-101
1:26:40 - Asymmetry of Power
1:27:05 - Complex problem for RUS : Big Is not always Better
1:27:10 - Writings in F-A by Stephen Kotkin
_________ 1. POLITICS & SOCIETY JUL/AUG 2018
_______ Realist World By Stephen Kotkin
_______ Today, as ever, great-power politics will drive world events. That means the course
_______ of the coming century will largely be determined by the relationship between China . . .
_________ 2. THE BEST OF 2017 NOV/DEC 2017
_______ When Stalin Faced Hitler By Stephen Kotkin
_______ . . . The story of the fateful night in 1941 when, after years of mutual nonaggression,
_______ Germany finally attacked the Soviet Union.
_________ 3. FROM THE ARCHIVES MAY/JUN 2016
_______ Russia's Perpetual Geopolitics By Stephen Kotkin
_______ For centuries, Russia has been haunted by geopolitical ambitions that exceed its
_______ capabilities. President Vladimir Putin’s recent attempts to secure Moscow a prominent
_________ 4. BEST OF 2015 MAR/APR 2015
_______ The Resistible Rise of Vladimir Putin By Stephen Kotkin
_______ Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vaunted “stability” has turned into spoliation.
_______ The methods he used to fix the corrupt, dysfunctional post-Soviet state have...
_________ 5. WMD & PROLIFERATION NOV 24, 2013
_______ Rouhani's Gorbachev Moment By Stephen Kotkin
_____ Could Iranian President Hassan Rouhani be another Mikhail Gorbachev -- a real reformer
_____ who opens his country’s political system and creates the space for détente with . . .
_________ 6. POLITICAL ECONOMY NOV 4, 2009
_______ An annotated Foreign Affairs syllabus on communism. By Stephen Kotkin
_________ 7. U.S. FOREIGN POLICY SEP/OCT 2009
_______ The Unbalanced Triangle By Stephen Kotkin
_______ The Chinese-Russian relationship is more opportunistic than strategic, Bobo Lo
_______ argues. The United States is stuck watching from the sidelines and may be pushing
_______ Moscow . . .
_________ 8. RUSSIA & FSU SEP/OCT 2007 By Stephen Kotkin
_______ Russian Foreign Policy in the Twenty-first Century and the Shadow of the Past
1:34:04 - Investment in infrastructure (in Puerto Rico) if funded by Chinese ?
1:34:54 - Remember some history . . . 1975 . . .
1:35:25 - In March , 2017 . . . 1975 hope was market-economy and rising boats . . .
1:36:20 - HELLO !
1:37:00 - What will happen if politically closed ? . . . Investing is from outside for now . . .
1:37:45 - Their decision-making process is a mystery .
1:38:00 - To relate one needs to know one's self and the other.
1:38:12 - We have not had to relate to such a paradox : IF a closed political system , THEN
_________ not big and strong . . .
1:38:25 - You can't have private property without the rule of law , except you can .
1:38:32 - You can't have a successful market-economy without the rule of law except . . .
1:38:38 - You can't have the 2nd biggest economy in the world with a communist party
_________ system of government except . . .
1:38:45 - That's the problem (or relating West-to-China) except, if you can .
1:39:00 - Reports of deaths
1:39:40 - Suspicious . . . Christopher Steele is missing
1:41:00 - People who were sources of the document
1:41:50 - leaks of verified data and false data and unverified data
1:42:00 - A mystery remains.
1:42:40 - What is social science ?
_________ Actively seeking information that disproves what you believe
1:43:00 - We tend to do the opposite : We have CONFIRMATION BIAS
Great aide memoire,Thomas.
He does a great job of handing out the facts and leaving it up to the students in finding the truth. Very Socratic 👍🌞❤️😃
Facts? All I heard was opinion.
Zero facts presented. He is the National Enquirer and Fox 'News' of academics. Embarrassing to America.
Yeah, the usual shoving of buckets of shit down dumb sheeple's throat: that's how I call it! You've grown too fat an lazy on that diet so you cannot even see it!
True, this was more opinion than fact, but 'facts' are not readily self evident in the realm of international relations. This was one man giving a very well informed opinion while asking those engaged in discourse with him to examine and relate their own opinions so that they could together approach something closer to what is true. It was indeed very Socratic, and those of you dismissing the discourse out of hand are almost certainly just as enmeshed in some degree of ideological conformity as you claim others to be.
That US has a criminal regime, kills everyone who doesnt agree with them, whose best buds cut throats live on TV? No one gonna acknowledge that, Clint.
Close your eyes and imagine Joe Pesci is speaking!
classic! i was just thinking i dont really care what he says i just want to listen to his voice and then i read ur comment
Just don't tell the Prof. that you think he's funny.....
Does the Professor amooze you?
@@bobbowie5334 More to to the point, do you think he is a clown ? We aren't dealing with Cousin Vinny here...:-)
@@johncokos9849 Whats so funny about that?
So even at this early stage, Professor Kotkin knew Russia Gate was a nothing-burger.
That may be so but I would love to hear what Prof. Kotkin has to say about Trump's final post-election 2020 gyrations.
@@walterm.robertsiiiphd2157 that election was a fraud. Dem lawyers ran around to important swing states a sued to drastically loosen election laws to push through this mail in scheme with low accountability, then in those states the big city dem machines pumped out votes for a week after Election Day until they flipped, this inspires no confidence. Trump is right
@@johndoe-fq7ez Lol. For you to be right hundreds of thousands of both Rs and Ds, of all sorts of professions will need to have been in some conspiracy. And all keep quiet, all have somehow hidden all evidence.
Or....the reality TV host lost.
@@SandraFerreira-me7xb nothing he mentioned requires hundreds of thousands of proffesionals... A few thousand bad actors is all it would take, in addition to fellow conspirators in authority giving them cover
@@johndoe-fq7ez if they did, they are hero’s all.
Why do Yale students, including graduate students, constantly use "kind of ..." they seem to be unable to ask a question without inserting "like kind of." This is how the most elite young minds in America form a thought?
Its called nuanced thinking on the spot about a difficult issue.
@@TheWaveofbabies - No it's not called that. It's the opposite of nuance, it's additionally vague and the difficulty of the issue should make questions easier to develop. In any case just ask without like, maybe, sort of, or kind of, and you immediately present as a better communicator, because you are. This is Yale not Fartland Community College. In two years any of these nitwits children of priviledge can start on Wall St for $165K and begin their lives of supposed superiority and real advantage.
@John Smith...Unfortunately, English language speaking skills have seriously deteriorated over the last 30 yrs. Grates on my ears too...
what did you expect from a leftist/liberal leaning school trying to grasp facts. It’s hard for them to do without hating everything ... (kind of) like stepping out of their comfort zone.
@@hellokitty8552 do you even know who William Buckley was, and what kind of views you're likely to subscribe to if you're in a club named after him? I would be interested in seeing some examples of students not in a leftist/liberal institution grasping facts in a superior manner.
I do not know why but i see great reasemblence to Milton Friedman. Great lecture.
Five years on, I wonder what Kotkin’s view on the January 6th riot is? Does anyone have a link?
The way to have a center in politics is not necessarily institutions, but a multi party system. If minoroty parties are proportionally represented, there will be competition for the moderate voters.
This is a great lecture, but 20+ adverts is absolutely ridiculous and completely ruined it.
Steven Kitkon makes comprehensive and funny very complex stuff.
Wonderful teacher !
Kotkin just nails it. Well done.
Outstanding student loans and credit card debt engendered by frivolous purchases are two of the strongest governing influences in our lives. Tennessee Ernie Ford resonated with the citizens of the former Soviet Union through his universal lyrics, " I owe my soul to the company store..."
Jeannie Seibert “Saint Peter, don’t ya call me cause I can’t go.”
On the question of Russia and the defense of their imperialism: clearly Russia has put its boots on other nations land and dared any power to stop them. We will now set about correcting this new state which was simply reconstituted Tsarism. Believe me, the problem is superable and it is far smaller than what we had with the Cold War. Russia has two cards: geopolitical position and fossil fuels. Fossil fuels is a fading power and mobility weakens their geopolitical centrism. Time will play out, Russia's opening bid is on the table, but for now, we hold a dominant hand.
And the Mercans. How many foreign governments has Washington disrupted or destroyed. And I do not mean in "legitimate", declared wars!
I agree, Jim. I believe the doctrine of ‘Making the world safe for democracy’ was a Wilsonian platitude. One of the reasons I don’t like the Wilson admin. Wilson looks like a hypocrite and a corporatist. Certainly a skilled and daft politician. I would not have trusted a single thing he said after 1917. Just like I didn’t vote for Obama in 2012. Barack didn’t square his policies with his campaign promises, so I could not in good conscience support him any more. We should not be interventionist. You know, Adams, ‘We should not go abroad in search of dragons to slay’?!
@@jimburks6599 Wr. Puking destroys everything by himself. He is murder and theif
Unfortunately conservatives are fighting tooth and nail to keep fossil fuels going.
Well he was right about Bannon, didn't last long.
"Imagine me against Lebron James. It's not gonna look pretty, is it. Now image a 5-year-old..." I wasn't paying attention there and thought this was about boxing... In all seriousness though, great lecture. I'm glad to see CZcams's algorithm resonate with Kotkin's reception.
Trashcanistan @ 51:30 is gold. Centcomm section @ 57:19 also hilarious.
If I were forced to find a sole factor in the confusion of our present geopolitics: it is petroleum. It is for petroleum that we support exceedingly repressive regimes, turn our back to friends and execute cruel war on peoples without reason. Now there is no reason to fear for the future as petroleum will decline in importance but will we, the citizens of The United States, realize our own limits and accept the inherent responsibility of our position and stop serving corporate interests which are not identical with American interests?
That was a pretty sophisticated counter argument. I don't agree that government is essentially a mental construct although it may well be so for the many stateless persons we have on the planet today. I feel that, at its best, government is the sum of citizen desires as to economy, domestic laws and international relations. The moral imperative is easy to track (the debate concerning abortion, eg.) and the cross talk about government being "just a state of mind" can be camouflaged white nationalism which sacrifices the nation itself to secure sole rule. Quite a few are skeptical of government because they are fleeing a dysfunctional one and illegally appropriating another. No?@@jason8434
Well said Jason! That many people are incapable of thinking for themselves I won't contest. That is evident every night on the news if you can stand to watch filtered garbage. That I for one can think for myself poses myself as a citizen in the true sense of the word. That I care for others allows me to generalize about others. There are more than a few psychopathy candidates in our midst. I just can't agree that man isn't capable of self governing and that therefore he should just give up and let some amoral buffoon have his way. I vote in a flawed system which is better than any other. To separate oneself from the system is hardly a solution and I am solution driven. @@jason8434
@@jason8434 Jason, we do govern ourselves every day but that applies to what I do with myself and no-one else. Self government is a tautology and is indeed impossible for the peaceful interworking among sizable populations. I do see the value of the idea which was put forth in the words of Jesus that every man should conduct himself in a manner that would not threaten any other man and that The Golden Rule should be our daily guide. But governing a large community such as a modern nation state has to be representative. If our representative doesn't represent us then we vote him out. That's the best we can do and it's a far cry from the anarchy that seems to be preferable to many.
@@jason8434 Jason, then let us who do understand, explain the system to those who take other people's word for truth out of necessity. You seem a good man to do this. And we must remember that even though we may understand a thing or two that does not entitle us in any way to usurp the rights of others. Those rights were given regardless of sophistication or property. I am both idealistic and pragmatic in this regard.
@@jason8434 Well we have to trust our fellow humans. We do this every day in other matters (eg. driving on the highways) so we will just have to do it with governance. It is trust that we are short of these days and selling mistrust has become an industry. If we can't keep the faith no one else will. Cheers.
Smart man. Good teacher.
1:33:00 China. What a difference 5 years makes. SK was correct about all the things he said about a closed communist country but was perplexed at how it could possibly succeed. It seemed to be succeeding in 2017 but we see now that the closed country was truly a paper dragon and as with the USSR, outward perception was more important than true success and China is now on the verge of imploding which may make the Great Leap Forward look like "Happy Days".
in March of 2017 ..this whole thing was just getting started.. little did we know how far the hysteria would go.
philosophy senior says "like" after every word. read more and practice your speech for god's sake.
Listening to this in relation to what is going on in Ukraine equates to a prophecy
Right
Very interesting seeing this in 2023.
Remember: According to a report by Forbes:
....Picking his way through the Soviet archives that Boris Yeltsin had just thrown open, in 1991 Tim Sebastian, a reporter for the London Times, came across an arresting memorandum. Composed in 1983 by Victor Chebrikov, the top man at the KGB, the memorandum was addressed to Yuri Andropov, the top man in the entire USSR. The subject: Sen. Edward Kennedy.
....“On 9-10 May of this year,” the May 14 memorandum explained, “Sen. Edward Kennedy’s close friend and trusted confidant [John] Tunney was in Moscow.” (Tunney was Kennedy’s law school roommate and a former Democratic senator from California.) “The senator charged Tunney to convey the following message, through confidential contacts, to the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Y. Andropov.”
.....Kennedy’s message was simple. He proposed an unabashed quid pro quo. Kennedy would lend Andropov a hand in dealing with President Reagan. In return, the Soviet leader would lend the Democratic Party a hand in challenging Reagan in the 1984 presidential election. “The only real potential threats to Reagan are problems of war and peace and Soviet-American relations,” the memorandum stated. “These issues, according to the senator, will without a doubt become the most important of the election campaign.”
A bit more to that story:
www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2017/jul/18/greg-gutfeld/fox-news-host-cites-ted-kennedy-kgb-meeting-never-/
three words: "I love it," - Trump Jr.
Stethen Kotkon makes comprehensive and funny very complex stuff.
Wonderful teacher !
Having lived in Ukraine, for years Post Orange Revolution up to 8 months prior to the full scale Russian invasion.
This man is the oppitomy of detailed thoughtfulness.
I've listened to many of Kotkin's talks.
I always learn something new and, get a deeper perspective on subjects I thought I was well informed on.
Thank you once again Dr. Kotkin. Once again mission accomplished. 1:08:27
BRAVO YOU ARE AMAZING ❤❤❤
Look up Peter Zeihan's study on Geo Politics.
I remember coming across a presentation of his from years back. He was making wild predictions about European banking that didn't come to fruition and it actually just turned out to be a load of nonsense. The video was still up but the comments had been disabled.
Zeihan is great, but I think he sidesteps issues with changing demographic composition as related to state and cultural stability. Still very good to listen to, and I can recommend his books.
A very informative speaker.
Yes the bureaucracy Doesn't consider themselves stupid
What's up with these ads?
Skip: 2:42
Great teacher, great wisdom. I learned more in from this lecture about international relations and what they are based on, than i knew possible.
Wow, I love how he thinks/talks
What a difference five years makes.
A good fella!
Didn't Chamberlain face some of the same questions about aggression?
Knowledge, intelligence, money and power
Wow @36:30 dismantles an entire alt-right argument - "unite our enemies, divide our friends" ... also crazy that he plays out Ukrainian War 5 years beforehand around 55:00 ... What a genius
Democracy is not preventing wars. Look at US military operations. There are plenty of examples on war of aggression among these.
The theory is that democracies don't fight other democracies, not that they don't go to war at all. Democracies tend to be more accountable to their people and more crucially more transparent; it's easier to see how credible a democracy is when it places a red line by seeing what the opposition is saying. That's not the case with authoritarian regimes as much.
I am not serving the theory full justice, but that's the argument. Not necessarily true either, but it's a strong argument.
@@NC7491 The problem is the subjective way of defining who's a democracy and who isn't. For example Britain went to war in 1914 in part to "save the world for democracy" (although they used the excuse of the violation of Belgian neutrality) even though Germany had full male suffrage aged 26 and upwards while Britain still had property requirements limiting the percentage of the adult male population who could vote to around 1/3. (The German system did have the kaiser appoint the chancellor which made it more autocratic in that sense, but it wasn't clearly less democratic across the board).
1:40:00 - serious stuff
The problem is that Russia wants to be a European country, not a Eurasian and certainly not an Asian country. And it's all three. Give Vladivostok some love.
No, russian politics declaring own way against the western civilization.
This man should work for the NYT or the FT.