Thanks for watching spare parts army. Do you think the Russian's will be able to regroup and reorganize for attacks in the east? Do you believe the key strategic objectives are in the east or is that not true? Always really appreciate your feedback - even if its constructive criticism! I'm trying my best to learn and grow at this. *If I seem happy it’s because I am happy about the news that Ukraine is keeping Kyiv for now. *
Long live the russian bear! Down with the trix of mit6 & cia. Go take care of your starving ppl instead of enriching the pockets of arm manufacturers & fuel companies.
@@stophate2023 regardless of what you are in due time western ukraine will be a failed state, its bandera nazi hooligans pouring in drugs, arms & weapons into western europe. Nobody in europe want your gas & oil 5 times more expensive and ppl will get tired of your trix. Dont let this silly honeymoon drunken your judgment "old intel guy". The narcissistical, psyco US FP is coming to an end.
"We have been left no other option to protect Russia and our people, but for the one that we will be forced to use today. The situation requires us to take decisive and immediate action. The people's republics of Donbas turned to Russia with a request for help." -President Vladimir Putin Yeah seems like is what putin wanted from the start, at the same time it's really hard to confirm because goals change all the time, maybe when possible, they would have taken kiev. I dunno man too complex.
This video got about 80% of his claims right. Some serious mistakes/ too-certain unlikely conclusions: 1.) Believing without any doubt the Russian propaganda claimed that 300 Ukrainian marines surrendered. VERY doubtful that the video is genuine, some serious inconsistencies in the footage according to military veterans --> like clean-shaved and spotty clean soldiers in a siege setting, no run-down dirty uniforms, full military jacket pockets that would get emptied first-thing upon surrender, for safety reasons, just to name some of the most glaring examples. 2.) The Helicopter raid was very likely conducted by Ukraine forces, they're just mocking Russians on how Russia lies about their own operations, absurdly obviously. It was clear for anyone reading between the lines of what Ukraine's spokesman said (I believe it was someone like the Defence minister of Ukraine).
@@Samurai___Jack he somewhat has a point though, a Filipino defense page made a breakdown of the videos and they pointed out that one of the soldiers still had frag grenades on his vest, which they say is kinda weird because normally in every video of soldiers surrendering, first thing that gets confiscated is any weapons they have on them
@@elektrotehnik94 There are reports of aid workers being able to get into Mariupol just this week and citizens able to get out. Not in huge numbers, talking single didgits. HOWEVER, those who have gotten out said they want to go back to help others escape. The town might be encircled but poorly. Russians just can't coordinate and communicate down there, they knocked out the power and the cell network which is what their fancy comms system uses to function.
A nod; besides the water supply to Crimea, I wasn't aware of the natural gas in the Donbas area, but I recently learned Eastern Ukraine has a large supply of lithium. I heard of oil and gas in the Black Sea as well, not far from Crimea. I've only recently begun learning about the economic aspects of Ukraine, and I've been stunned. Thanks for that T64BV Salient Attack breakdown. I watched that clip earlier but couldn't understand if mortars or artillery were being used. Thanks for this video.
None of that is new im pretty sure. But nobody exploited the gas / oil because it would cause terrain instability in a heavily urbanized and populated area (Donetsk), and the problem with lithium is pollution in the middle of farmlands. I think this is sort of meh of an argument. Now apparently gas was found in the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea, thats a lot more interesting.
Natural gas and other resources that should have brought the region money, but because the Nazis couldn't stop shelling the region and killing people, the production companies pulled out and left the region impoverished. Freedom from their oppressors is the best thing to ever happen to these people
The east is also the breadbasket, where the best soil is, where much wheat is grown. Russia needs to be stopped. Get mad, write letters, do what you can.
I remember reading that massive deposits of oil and gas were found off the coast of Ukraine, west of Crimea, which explains further why they took the peninsula and explains why they initiated the fighting in the Donbas. Crimea to lay claim to the resources, Donbas to inhibit Ukraine's ability to exploit the resources remaining under their control. No International Oil or Gas Company would invest millions of Dollars when all could be lost in the case something like what is happening today is a likely outcome. Ukraine could've took over a share of Oil and Gas exports to Europe and that would mean lost revenue for Russia, revenue that makes up 40% of its yearly budget. Without the money from oil and gas Russia would in the worst case scenario collapse.
I have received more information about the current situation in Ukraine by watching this 21 minute video then I have watching news, other video sources, or reading updated online reports. Very well explained video. Thank you.
A story from my conscripted servicetime in Finnish military, in light mortar platoon: During the ww2 when attacking, mortar platoon moved behind the attacking rifle company and phonecable was used an indicator and measuring device. A measured lenght of wire was dragged by FO group and mortar platoon followed the other end of wire. When wire stopped moving, phone was connected and mortars were deployed immediately. Quite accurate fire could be layed on the target in minute or two, as calculations are simple and no position measurements are needed. Usually after 1st shells dropped and fire was corrected, second shells hit the mark. During peacetime this was forbidden to train as it requires to fire directly over own troops and is dangerous.
very interesting mortar tactic that I was not aware of , its a shame troops couldnt train on this with dummy munitions or something. thanks for the insight into the Finnish military
intersting. usually i scroll thru the commets while watching/listening to the video. i paused for this comment. thank you! finland. great people, sauna, food and drinks and - simo haya.
And lastly. ....... you're spot on about the water thing, this is something that most people know absolutely nothing about. The gas fields yes but not the critical water problem in the Crimea.
The advances in the south also create a land bridge between Crimea and Russia making it easier to transport goods and opens the black sea to Russian trade companies
Gooner. 72 I've always wondered why the Russians didn't bomb the Damn, with guided missile's, after it was constructed in 2016. After all fresh water is a necessity, that would of have been a legitimate bombing situation.
After reading the horrific memoirs of a German soldier who fought in this region 70 years ago, it's so whack hearing names like Belgorod, Kharkov, and Konotop again in the context of a modern conflict.
In a month, Russia will announce the success of the second phase. They will clarify that liberating Donbas was just a ruse. The main goal all along was to capture FSB most wanted: a guy named Don Bass. It's the classic Russian Matryoshka strategy. The goal becomes smaller and smaller with each phase. The Russians are demonstrating tactical flexibility in how they manage their expectations.
Ruzzians be like : oh noo guys it was our plan all along uniting the western world against us totally part of our plan to force all countries to join nato
Admitting being wrong about the outcome of the battle of Kiev is why I watch this CZcams channel for war updates. Literally everyone thought kiev would fall in a month but nobody wants to admit it.
Of course everyone thought it would fall. It should have fallen. No one can reasonably make an assessment based on the enemy being completely incompetent. You can't make that assumption. One plans for the worst and hopes for the best. In this instance, the best happened, but it took a complete bungling of the whole thing. From the planning, execution and support. The Russians mucked it up. One can never count on that happening.
I'm one of those rare people who can admit when I was wrong. I fully expected the country gonne in a month. The Ukrainians are fighting God tier in round 1. I hope to see them do as good in round 2.
Love you man, keep making videos - you always cheer me up! Your honesty humor and perspective are very welcomed during this age. *I salute you, soldier!*
Other thing... If you remember, the major clashes in Donbass started with Igor Girkin's special forces group taking Slovyansk. Why Slovyansk, which is deep inside of Ukraine? So, because is in the center of Yuzivka gas field, where Ukraine with help of Shell planned to produce about 10 bln of cubic meters of gas every year back in the 2013. With addition of gas from crimean sea shelf, Ukraine for 2020 could reduce drastically dependence from russian gas supply.
my pet theory about Kiev falling to Russia by the end of April was flat out wrong and I'm happy to admit it. That's how I constantly update my understanding of what's the reality of what is happening on the ground.
Commenting from Ukraine. All of your information and analysis seems correct and true. Thank you for keeping us in the spotlight. In these times of great change, it's better to have informed people all over the globe.
4:15 just wanted to add on this point. During the Gulf War, an American battleship (forget which one) was conducting shore bombardment operations and used an UAV drone to spot targets for the guns. Iraqi soldiers knew if that spotted them, they’d be dead within seconds, so they waved white flags of surrender to the drone. Not sure how you can surrender to an artillery spotter drone when you’re a good little ways behind your lines, but interesting tidbit.
They also tried to surrender to US attack helicopter. Majority of Iraq troops were not interested in fighting, and considering the conditions in Iraqi military I cant really blame them. They would get forcefully conscripted, given a plastic helmet (I'm not joking) and they would had to spend years on frontlines.
So the actual reasoning for the “cope cages” is not avinât nlaw or javelin. What the Russians learned in grozny is that small teams with anti tank weapons like the RPG-7. Or similar weapons. On top of building can knock out a tank with a well placed shot on the weak turret armour. These weapons unlike javelin. Do not use a tandem charge warhead. So the “cope cages” will detonate older warheads prematurely. Possibly saving the crew. I think spookston made a great video talking about these “cope cages”.
An explanation I heard is that I'd the warhead hits the bars of the cage without setting off the fuse it will deform the casing of the warhead. Making the shaped charge much less effective.
The initial version of Starsreak was laser only. However as of years ago, the current version was upgraded to Starstreak II. It now also has fire & forget, day & night optics etc.
i don't think the Ukrainians are getting the latest and greatest versions tho just in case they get captured. i think these powers just have a good way of clearing out the stockpiles of older stuff without just scraping it.
I really love how you confidently mispronounce all the Ukrainian place names. You don't even hesitate, just pick a pronunciation and go with it. The salient maneuver of CZcams videos!
@Bruhm Stick Ah, yes you're right. Cappy is pretending to be an expert. Especially when he punches himself in the dick. That just screams "expert". Thanks for pointing that out, Captain Obvious.
The cope cage is actually to trap RPGs fired from rooftops in built up areas - the Russians had a bad time with these in Chechnya. It's not designed for javelins or NLAWs.
Exactly the same reason most US armor had cage and slat armor welded on during Iraq and Afghanistan. It's pretty common for most modern military vehicles, since RPG 7 is so plentiful and the cages work decently often, more than enough to be worth the small amount of extra weight. The reason Russia's is more on top is because they were getting shot at in Syrian city streets from rooftops. US armor was dealing with ambushes from the sides, so most cage armor on US strykers is side-mounted.
@@mver191 because not all have them outfitted some have some don't what you think the Russians waste time taking off the cage when they enter a city lol
Yooooo hahahahaha the intro to this video almost made me spit out my drink I was laughing so hard. keep it coming with he great videos, and GLORY TO UKRAINE!!
Just a technical note: Theres no river flowing to Crimea, its man made canal build during Soviet times to help poor Crimea region. There was arid semidesert and steppes before the canal was built and it is becoming one once again. The salinsation was and is happening due to the cannal (evaporating mineralisied river water does that everywhere in the world), its effect are worse and more visible when the water stops flowing.
Anyone remember the aral sea drying up causing destructive climate change after the soviet unions interference? They tried to divert water by building a mega dam for massive cotton production. but it backfired shrinking the aral sea causing it's salt to dry and be carried in the wind and landing in the earth making the countries surrounding lands infertile and useless for agriculture. (there's a documentary about it if anyone wants proof)
yes great point I sorta misspoke there. I wanted to go into more detail about the canal and its history of being built by the soviets but I thought I'd be getting too much in the weeds about the water issue . glad to see people are interested in that part of the war , its important we try to understand some of the pressures that push major powers towards conflict.
Should be noted that Russia swiped up Ukraine's largest coal mines in the east back in 2014, forcing Ukraine to buy their coal far from Africa. So it makes sense as the retribution as Ukraine is right next to their taken coal mines while Crimea is right next to their water supply Russia can't get.
thanks but the real work is being done by the Institute for the study of war , Rob Lee on instagram and even the ANNA News network that's a pro russian source that I'm able to use when its accurate.
@@randomthing4639 why? It's good to be pro Ukraine, they are repelling a foreign army. What you mean to say is it's good to be accurate in your assessment of the situation, not overly rosy about the situation for either country. There's a difference. I want Ukraine to fertilize it's fields with a generation of young Russian men, but realistically it'll probably flare out in some manner of stalemate in the East where the lines are far from urban areas that have substantial defender bonuses like they had in the suburbs of Kiev.
Freaking thank you! I have been waiting for just one, ONE, person to talk about the Crimea and the water supply in the last two weeks. You are the first.
@@SignalLost730 Either way, a lot of russian troops were misled into the war... I mean... "Special military operation", "peacekeeping force", "denazification force", "liberation force" or whatever bs umbrella term they decide to use these days.
I've been under the impression that the cope cages are more to protect against light AT weapons being fired above the tanks from buildings in cities. A lesson learned in Grozny. That doesn't mean they aren't still cope cages, just that who ever came up with the idea probably didn't think they would protect against NLAWs etc.
yes this is a valid possible scenario. Tank armor is usually good enough to not have to worry about RPG's, they never added cage armor to the Abrams. Could be that they need it for the T72 , great feedback thanks for pointing this out
@@Taskandpurpose As a general rule, the roof of a tank is quite thin armor protection wise. A simple RPG does have a fair shot of hitting something critical when firing down on a tank from above. They were expecting most of the resistance to be in the cities. So it made sense.....when you assume the Ukrainians will simply not resist as you roll in and "liberate" them from the Big Bad Nazis.
Sometimes you have to try shit and Jerry rig stuff and make it work in the field. Even if it helps only 15% it’s better than nothing. WW2 they would attach logs of wood to the sides of their tanks
@@alexhurlbut Logs were another improvised armor added to tanks during WWII. However, they could also be removed from the tank and placed under the tracks in boggy terrain for additional traction. In fact, many Soviet tanks left the factory with logs mounted for this reason. As armor, however, logs did not offer much protection
The Russians appear to be making the same mistakes as the USA did in the War of 1812. Mistake #1: Underestimate the enemy. "The conquest of Canada will be a mere matter of marching." - US president Thomas Jefferson. In 1812, Napoleon was at the peak of his power. Poised to invade Russia, which is at the opposite end of Europe from France. The British regular forces in Canada were drawn down to fight in Europe. And the US government convinced itself that the Canadians were all secretly yearning to join the USA. All they had to do was march the US army into Canada and overwhelm the tiny British regular force as the Canadians welcomed their "liberators." The problem with that plan is that the Canadians had slightly different plans, which included fighting to the death to defend their country. Putin made the exact same mistake. He figured that the Ukrainians would not put up significant resistance, because so many of them were yearning for reunification with Russia. Bad mistake. Mistake #2: Logistics. "Amateurs talk about strategy. Professionals talk about logistics." - US General Omar Bradley In 1812, the Canadian logistics were waterborne, along the St. Lawrence River and over the Great Lakes. The way to conquer Canada is to cut its supply lines by capturing its logistical base at Quebec City. Then all of Canada will fall, because there is no other way to get supplies. The US tried to do just that in 1775, but were defeated by the city walls of Quebec. Today, the city walls are a big tourist attraction, as is the massive fortifications of La Citadelle (which is an official Royal Palace of the Queen of Canada). In 1812 the USA did not even try to capture Quebec. All that money spent on fortifications really paid off! Instead, the Americans tried attacking what is today Ontario, thereby attacking up Canada's supply lines. Today, the Russian Army is making the exact same mistake. The Ukrainian forces are being supplied through their western border. So a logistically sound strategy would be to invade western Ukraine from Belarus and seal off that western border. Then the Ukrainian Army (and the rest of the country!) has their supply lines cut. None of those wonderful NATO weapons get through. Russian victory follows. But instead, the Russian Army is fighting in western and northern Ukraine. Thereby allowing the Ukrainian Army to be supplied by NATO. Dumb move! Mistake #3: Wreak your economy. "Three things are required to fight a war. 1. Money. 2. Money. 3. Money." -Raimondo Montecuccoli In 1812, the USA was subjected to a complete and total naval blockade. The British Army was indeed stretched thin in Europe. But after the Battle of Trafalgar, the Royal Navy had plenty of ships to blockade the USA. So they did, and the US economy collapsed. Today, Putin is wreaking the Russian economy by provoking international economic sanctions. This will make it very difficult to fight the war, and may result in a backlash from the Russian people who really do not like being quite so poor. Mistake #4: Make a permanent enemy. Before 1812, there actually was a significant segment of opinion in Canada that did favour close relations or political unification with the USA. After 1812 all such talk was treasonous. The war eliminated the pro-American element in Canada. Even trade relations were suspicious. As late as 1911, the Conservative Party won an election with the slogan, "No truck nor trade with the Yankees!." Putin is making the same mistake in Ukraine. Before his invasion, there was a strong pro-Russian element in Ukraine. Many of its citizens were of Russian origin. There was a pro-Russian government in Kiev before the "Orange Revolution" in 2004. But not any more. Russia has now made a long-term enemy of Ukraine. I predict that after the war is over, being pro-Russian will be politically toxic. So there we have it. The four mistakes that the US government made in the War of 1812, and the same identical mistakes made by Putin today.
And 5 , Just like Saddam Hussein overstretched his army's supply lines and was unable to secure air superiority in the Iran Iraq war, The Russians repeated Saddam's mistake .
@@patriotenfield3276 He did not counted on Iran's resolve to defend own country, when you read about people volunteering to clean minefields by running across them, it's tough opponent. As far as I know, plus the Shah's army of Iran was determined to kick him out.
POL depot attack possibility: If you've been embezzling a good part of your army's gas money, like so they don't have enough gas to drive all the trucks once a month, then the surest way NOT to have to account for the missing gas is to claim it was destroyed in an enemy attack. Comrade Colonel, why is there no gas in your depot? Well Comrade General, it was destroyed by the dastardly Ukrainian army, pay no mind to my new house at the sea shore, or the matching G wagons in its driveway.
Your comment reminds me of the true story where Clint Eastwood stole the top secret Russian jet Fire Fox and defeated the enemy by "thinking Russian". Genuinely though, your analysis makes sense and I highly recommend the 1982 film. Thanks for posting.
Much more likely than a false flag operation. Especially if Putin is "retiring" generals in Siberia and all of a sudden they need to start hiding their embezzlement.
I really appreciate your walkthrough of the Ukrainian ambushing footage near the beginning of you video. I'd seen the footage before, but your explanation made it much more clear what was happening.
That the Russians sent their best airborne shock troops from Belarus to capture major airfields and hold them also makes me think that the 40km convoy was originally intended to be a resupply and enforcement. This elite unit deployment failed and that's part of the reason the 40km convoy just sat there. The Ukrainians felt the convoy was not any imminent threat so they just left it alone and only took on those Russian forces that were an actual and attacking threat.
They did not leave the convoi alone. There was plenty of evidence of Ukrainian Ambushes, Artillery strikes and drone strikes against parts of the konvoi, and anywhere from dozens to hundreds of vehicles were destroyed. However, there was a hughe amount of vehicles in that konvoi in total, so destroying it fully would take a lot longer than they had. Also, the konvoi wasn't really a konvioi to be precise, considering there were gaps in in that sometkmes exceeded a kilometre between vehicle groups, which probably helped with the ambushes.
Apparently the Ukrainians slipped into their communications and told the troops that were supposed to encircle Kyiv that their resupply was only hours away. They kept that up for days. They also stalled the convoy early on which further contributed to the chaos.
Cappy I think you misunderstand the point of the cage. It's most likely that slat armor like this is used to protect the vehicle against older HEAT weapons like RPGs. Specifically, if RPGs are fired from rooftops in urban areas like in Mariupol. Furthermore smaller munitions dropped by drones also have the potential to be stopped by this slat armor. It's pretty useless against Javelins though or other types of larger munitions.
Correct, came here to say just this... The cage is used for defense from top attacks against small caliber RPGs, hand grenades, small suicide drones, thrown moltovs and thrown mines in urban warfare. Cage won't work against Javelins and NLAWs.
Yes but the majority of weapons being used be Ukraine are inlaws and other more advanced weapons so your point is only necessary to a civilian thinking he can take a tank out from above
Actually, ukrainian officials don’t recognize attacks on Belgorod, just to troll Russia, they constantly do so in an ironic manner. They are using the same tactics, which Russia used in Crimea and Donbass, when it completely denied presence of their soldiers there.
I think Ukraine "neither confirmed or denied" the attack on Belgorod out of a request from the US - who would have protested this idea as an "escalation".
@@saumyacow4435 nah, President’s adviser and speaker of Defense council, both pretty directly repeated former russian official statements, its long-reaching interpersonal conflict, don’t overestimate american influence
That's what I was thinking - it sounded exactly like the Russian denials of obvious Russian actions. Meanwhile, I think everyone in the region knew it was Ukraine that carried out the raid and morale was affected accordingly. Ukrainians knew that their forces had pulled off an absolutely beautiful mission, hitting a valuable target inside of supposedly safe Russian territory while taking no losses and causing no harm to civilians, and the Russians knew they had been embarrassed by the country they had expected to defeat in days. And, overall, it was a message, whether or not it was intended to be one. The message was that Ukraine isn't going to back down and isn't going to give concessions to Russia. I saw this raid compared to the Doolittle Raid in WW2. I think that is an apt comparison as it did the same thing - it showed the aggressor that their home territory was impregnable and it made a huge crack in the propaganda they were feeding to their population. As far as the "false flag" idea, I don't think this was ever a likely candidate for that. If the Russians were going to carry out a false flag attack, it would be something that would be calculated to cause outrage among their population and, they would hope, the rest of the world. It wouldn't be a legitimate military target like an oil depot. This attack made Ukraine look great and made Russia look bad. I sincerely doubt the Russians would have done that to themselves.
fun fact: recognizing it or not doesnt mean anything. either ukraine did it or its a false flag, russia could shift to scorched earth from handbrake offensive. I really want to see berlin, dresden or hiroshima liked destruction in west or eastern europe in my lifetime.
I feel fairly certain in saying this is the most accurate, honest, up to date information on the war in Ukraine from where I'm sitting. Thankyou for taking the time to shed some light
@@queenofclean5504 wow, seriously thankyou. I hate the fact I've got to watch multiple different new stories from different broadcasters to form an accurate opinion, this cuts that down significantly
Cappy, you're a card and also a smart, insightful critic (in the best sense) of the "spec-op" in Ukraine. Keep up your excellent analyses; they will be future historic gold.
just wanna say thank you for the awesome informative content! Im glad I randomly stumbled upon your channel. :) Sure makes me wish I could've studied military history in university!
This is why we need to invest in modern advanced nuclear energy options. Small form reactors, LFTRs, Thorium Reactors, liquid reactors, with modern technology, engineering, material science, safety measures understandings and designs, computer technology, robotics, It will really allow any nation to be pretty much be energy independent. Less reliant on fossil fuels. They'll have efficient, stable electrical grids and the rest of the grid could experiment with alternative power sources, etc.
Solar energy and large scale grid storage are hugely promising and are even affordable once you make the necessary initial investments. Also, even less reliant on external mineral supplies than nuclear power, not to mention safer mines and MUCH safer waste products.
Yes, need to make this oil madness go away, nuclear is good, but dam 6 years to complete a plant. Germany is keeping to decommission existing plants, hope Germany changes this stance as all of europe is dependent on that (eu funds for nuclear development).
At the moment, not a single watt of electricity is being generated by thorium. At such time when a commercially viable thorium reactor comes online and starts pumping power into the grid, it's still hypothetical. In addition to the options you mentioned, we should also be pursuing solar and wind just as hard. Unlike thorium, both of those technologies are actually putting power into the grid right now.
To all the naysayers this is a classic tactic on the part of russia that can be applied to any game of strategy. I was once playing chess against a brilliant chess player and he had captured my queen , both my bishops and enough other "important" pieces that most would consider the game lost. He fell into my trap though. I screamed at the top of my lungs, shit my pants and ran out of the room and took a bus home. To this day i still haven't lost that game of chess.
The "defending army" of Mariupol speaks another language than the city speaks. The "Attack Army" speaks the same language as the city. What is that gambit called again?
You have gotten very good at making these very interesting videos. Just the right amount of comedy along with very good descriptions of battle tactics.
Something that was pointed out about the 'cope cages' on another channel (I want to say it was Lazerpig, but don't quote me), is that they may of been intended with another battle in mind. That the Russians may of expected to get stuck in to proper city fighting, and that they were going to potentially take fire from RPG-7's and anti-tank grenades from elevated positions (IE: Buildings). So possibly less not understanding the weapon systems used against them, and more expecting a different fight than they wound up with.
I think they could also provide an elevated point to pitch a tarp and camo' net over to hide from infrared cameras when encamped. It must be working great, because I've yet to see any video of Russian tanks with netting over them /s.
That was my thought on seeing them; they look like the slat armor the US started putting on its vehicles in Iraq during OEF after pushing into the big cities. And if we are honest, they probably did not anticipate just how many ATGM systems we would import to Ukraine, and how quickly that happened, so they went in assuming they'd lose SOME vehicles to modern ATGMs, but the main threat would be RPG-7's and the like, against which those slat cages work fairly well.
I learned about the oil and gas reserves a few days after the invasion. Looked up a few articles about the politics playing out in Ukraine in 2010-2014... Most of what I learned pointed toward this being a war about petroleum and Russia not wanting to lose the EU market to Ukraine. Also, remember there is a large petro reserves in the black sea off the coast of Crimea as well.
@@doge8726 NATOs agreement was with the USSR which isn't a country anymore therefore it's void and if THAT hasn't made it void then the fact that Putin tried to join NATO has. Furthermore, NATO isn't holding countries to gun point, the countries are joining NATO because they've had experience living under the USSR and they don't want to repeat that with Russia.
@@doge8726 nato did not expand. Every country that joined nato did so voluntarily. And good thing they did otherwise Russia would have invaded them already
Re: Cope Cages. Absolutely zero use against a modern ATGM like NLAW or Javelin. However. The Ukrainians were also dropping anti-tank grenades (yeah AT Grenades) from commercial quad-copter drones. They are effective at protecting against those, as well as RPG-7 fired from above in urban areas.
a lot of them however aren't since a lot of the convoys using them are using makeshift or handwelded cages made out of refuse metals or cheap alloys that are then layered onto with gear/sandbags/bedrolls for the soldiers which reduces overall effectiveness
Cope Cages are just there for nostalgic reasons~ in WW2 a lot of soviet tanks fighting in urban areas (especially in berlin) used some of the weirdest stuff to built those cages. Have seen pictures where they basicly welded metal bedframes into cages. So my best guess here is, they just add it to get stalins approval and thus a +10 def buff.. only thing those orcs forgot is that the ukrainians have that +50 crit damage boost because of the "mr.worldwide homie buff"
The purpose of the cage on the top is to detonte the shaped charges a bit further away from the tank. Since its a HEAT round, it triggers upon contact on anything, and so they are trying to make the fuse activate earlier
Yeah he’s very aware but that spaced cage armor is insufficient, first off both nlaws and javelins use tandem charges so they have 2 separate heat rounds contained in the warhead, second off, they wouldn’t detonate on impact with something that weak, cages like that are used in US TUSK loadouts for things like abrams and Bradleys because they work on things like rpgs, but not something like these
You mentioned oil and I think this is absolutely something that people keep missing. I believe wholeheartedly oil/gas is Russia’s bigger objective. Those huge oil fields plus huge gas fields in the Black Sea were discovered in 2010. Ukraine began allowing foreign corporations to set up shop and start drilling in 2012 (Shell, etc). This was absolutely huge considering how the West desperately wants to reduce energy dependence on Russia. Well, what happened 2 years later? Crimea, Donbas, etc. With the fighting, foreign corporations fled and by stealing Crimea, Russia was able to seize 80% of Ukraine’s offshore gas reserves. Russia is not an economic powerhouse outside of energy. Oil & Gas exports make up 50% of their GDP, with most of those earnings going toward their military. This is why any talk of reducing energy dependence on Russia and Russia immediately starts trying to flex their muscles. Putin knows they can’t remain a “superpower” without western energy dependence.
Western energy dependence is just one part. European industry sector would be neutered without access to cheap energy. Meanwhile, China was asking for more gas deliveries for years, especially to substitute Australian coal. India and other countries as well, so everything that's not sold in Europe, will be sold to Asian countries. While Syria is blocking the way for the Arab pipeline to Turkey.
You have no idea what you are talking about clearly. You think the whole NATO issue had nothing to do with it? And your point about Russia wanting to preserve the Wests energy dependence is total horseshit. Russia was prepared to cut/lose the European market and is now shifting sales to Asia and anywhere else. There is no future European market save for a handful of sensible countries. They have been building new pipelines to China for a while which will re-route the energy.
@@Internetbutthurt Hey dingus, war is ALWAYS about the control of resources and the money and power derived from both. NATO being on Russia's border isn't a good enough reason to take the kind of unknown and unlimited risk Russia is currently taking by crossing a sovereign nations border to illegally and immorally annex it's land(s)...it's always about the money and the POWER, which in our epoch is driven by the apex essential commodity that is the building block of our entire global civilization, that being petroleum and it's derivative products.
Zelensky has asked a number of Western countries to individually sponsor the rebuild of areas in the east and along the coast. He invited Australia to sponsor one of the ports. A smart way to involve these countries in the defense of these regions going forward.
I think everyone should stay TF out. Give them weapons cool..but zelenskyy is a dictator and almost no better than Putin. Fuk em both..sometimes you have to let two brothers fight it out and handle their differences. The west needs to stay out of this shit
The west were investing before hand.. lots of debt built up from the war starting and putting an end to those investors, but yes new investors will be lined up who's investment lines a certain select few pockets discreetly or by proxy
I actually thought it was weird they were going after Kiev in the beginning of the invasion and I speculated it was a rear-action to cover their flank for the Donbass operation. Having said that, I don't think it's going very well. But I don't think the Russians thought it was going to be a cake walk either
You ain’t some low brow grunt Cappie, you provide great insight! I am going to Ukraine with an aid group local to Ukraine and I follow you, S2 and Good Times Bad Times for the latest intel and perspectives to consider.
It's just probably another rumor on top of every other rumor, but the "Ukrainian helicopter attack" that happened in Russian/Belarus territory is being explained by some Ukrainian military sources as a "Third Party action". I'm not sure who the hell is in possession of two fully armed ex Soviet attack helicopters, but that was probably the greatest Saturday night piss-up stunt I have ever heard of.
I've seen suggestion that Russia can't legally fully mobilize if it's not called a "war", hence the reason they call it a "special military operation". Maybe they want to play the victim and say they were attacked in their own territory so that they can justify calling it a war and mobilize more units. Unlikely, but at this point, who knows.
Ukraine using Russia’s own plausible deniability BS dodge answer against them, just like with the “little green men.” “Who knows who attacked. Could have been anyone. We cannot confirm or deny who did it, but whoever did it must be preeeety bold.”
The “cope cage” from my understanding isn’t supposed to be used to prevent anti tank weapons like javelin, but instead is supposed to prevent the use of loitering munitions or kamikaze drones. The Armenia-Azerbaijan war showed Russia just how affective loitering munitions are against Russian tanks. I found several news sources that discuss it extensively. The best one is Atlas news. You should definitely check them out
If you have been warching Russian news then they have mistly propagaded that the Cope Cage is meant for against Javelins, saying stuff like that the americans are wasting money with their fancy rockets and a metal cage can stop and javelin easily. So you know trying to change peoples view of the cope cage is really a piece of spreading misinformation.
@@stuartstuart866 Yeah. I just double checked and Javelin uses a contact fuse not a VT fuse, hence the cage will indeed make it detonate prematurely, just like fence armor on Leopard 2 and ZTZ99. However, considering that Javelin is Tandem charged and the top armor is less than 25mm thick while Javelin has a penetration of up to 750mm, I don't think that a metal cage will be enough. The fence armor on Leopard2 and ZTZ99 are in front of their turret side armor, which is thin, but still much thicker than the top armor.
@@DavidSmith-nx3zw Even if the cope cage detonates the main warhead of the javelin, the air gam between the cage and roof of the tank isnt enough to degrade the penetration to safe levels. Even if the warhead detonates on the cope cage and then hits an ERA block the copper jet will still penetrate the tank. This isnt WoT where 1 mm of air gap stops a HEAT warhead.
Good... Your explanation about water to Crimea is the one of the key reasons behind Supreme Soviet of URSS (and not only Khrushev, as Putin misinformed) decision to traspass Crimea adminstration to Ukrainian Soviet Republic in 1954. As economical recuperation of Crimea was failing after WWII, soviet's high level hierarchy decided to supply water and other resourses to Crimea. The major costs and all administration of such projects were derived to Ukraine. Because of the water channel from Dnipro river it was possible finally to develop agriculture and others economical activities in the big part of Crimea and develope economy and assure population growth (mostly russians, by the way) to higher levels. Without 85% of water supply and 80% of electricity supply from Ukraine Crimea resulted to be overpopulated and eats a big chunk of russian budget every year.
@Tin Watchman Actually, is difficult, cause the channel derived from Kahovka reservoir and it's impossible to cut if off if you don't have the control on the south side of Dnipro river. May be the only way is to stop hidroelectrical plant and let the water pass through to lower the level of the water in Kahovka reservoir. But you know... I think the sanctions war on Putin's Russia will last in this case until Ukraine is liberated. In this case "one of the major objective" of Russia to control water supply to Crimea could be the pirrhic achievement.
@Tin Watchman War is not instant CZcams gratification and this one is little older than month, little baby already turned sinister monster. Bloody affair.
About that helicopter attack. The Ukrainian government said it could neither confirm nor deny it was a Ukrainian attack, adding that the Russians should know it could happen anywhere in Russia
Russia confirmed it was 2 Ukrainian helicopters, they then targeted Zelenskys puppet Masters oil refinery destroying it, it was supplying the Ukrainian military.
@@romailto9299 reports stated they flew below 100ft to the target, I doubt they expected Ukraine to attack inside the Russian border, not far in but still inside.
The 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings which are suspected of being a false flag operation killed over 300 Russian civilians. So Putin is more than happy to do false flag operations where people die.
I still think is "false flag". Let tanks burn and say, they was full of oil, who can prove that they was half full and the other half? You guess, it is Russia
Thank you so much for putting your time and effort into these videos. It's very well thought out and organized, all while also providing top notch commentary. For whatever reason it kinda seems like you might be having a hard or stressful time, maybe you're just tired. Just know that there are thousands of people that appreciate the work you do, and you should really give yourself more credit/the confidence to step up on that soapbox a little more. For example in this video, starting around 16:00 when you gave some great perspective on wars over natural resources and other reasons that may seem arbitrary on paper. Around 16:13, and more so around 16:20 when you kinda seemed pissed off in that take, but it really helps bring out the importance of what you're saying.
This is video and channel is now official Ukrainian propaganda. Do please explain to me, at what point 20 000 - 40 000 troops were ever enough to take the city the size of Kiev that had way more defenders than there were attackers? What you are showing is small scale Ukrainian "wins" on tactical level, but you completely ignore the thousands of surrendered and thousands of bodies of Ukrainian soldiers in Eastern Ukraine and completely ignore all the similar and much larger scale Russian wins. Oh and all the imagery of the Russian tanks with the said "cages" is old stock footage from 2020 or 2021. I have yet to see any actually used in the conflict.
@@user-dp4ok9ox5w I will take a shot at this. The invasion was greatly influenced by notion that there will be no resistance. The Russians really truly expected a repeat of Crimea in 2014, and that upon seeing hundreds of mechanized battalions and troops, and give an ongoing internal strife in the Ukrainian politics, and a growing lack of political support around Zelensky from more hawkish right wingers at that time, Ukraininas will let them get to Kiev unopposed . They expected to just drive thru and parade thru the Maidan Sq by march 1st. That is also why they just sent in thousands of conscripts with no experience, and no intention to face real combat. In order to do otherwise - to start mobilization and pull in reservists , Putin would needed to declare a "war", not some "special military operation". That i know by seeing russina-language meetings recorded of various city councils. That is why initial days did not start with major indiscriminate bombing and atrocities. However, gross miscalculation ( in intelligence, and just in overall Hubris of VVP) brought that plan to a halt. Any other thinking along lines that Kiev axis was just a "distraction" is ridiculous. You then basically say that they threw all those 20,000 - 40,000 troops in as cannon fodder? Oh, btw , there were much more than that on the Kiev axis.
@@11arkasha11 No, i do not think Russians were not expecting "no resistance". I think that MIGHT have been part of their plan "maximum", but the general plan expected this level of resistance and the plan "minimum" expected probably way more resistance. I have no doubt that near Kiev they expected maximum resistance. The place where they probably expected less resistance or at very least expected Ukraine allowing the civilians to leave via humanitarian corridors, was Mariupol. No, there was not much more than about 30K light troops near Kiev. They did not have enough forces even to take the cities before Kiev, let alone Kiev. The whole group in TOTAL of the Russians forces participating is just 150K of which 25% remained in reserve (+ 50K Donbas militia). Ukraine had 260K troops in their army even before the start of the operation, but with the start of the operation they got all the volunteers, mobilized men and mercenaries on TOP of that 260K. Not to mention that what further proves my point correct that the Russians did not even secure their rear properly and left the major cities in their path with open humanitarian corridors (that were used by Ukrainian army too). It was not only feint but it also allowed for the Russian army to destroy the military equipment of Ukraine that was concentrated in Kiev and its surroundings, in addition that it prevented the Ukrainians from properly reinforcing not only Donbas, but also other directions like Kharkov. Clearly Ukrainians were only able to reinforce Kiev and Kharkov (or 2 out of the 4 ) directions of attack that the Russians created with such a relatively low amount of troops. Oh and when it comes to Kherson, the Russians were able to take it with very little fighting and intact. So, if where the Russians would had expected resistance is CERTAINLY in Kiev, but places like Kherson with much larger pro-Russian sentiment (and without presence of radicals such a Azov), fell quite easily. Last thing that points to their disinterest in actually entering Kiev was the almost total lack of any serious bombing of Kiev (beyond few precisions missile strikes on the outskirts). I would add that clearly that the Russian MAIN advance with the largest force was in the South and East, where they did succeed quite well (especially in the South). Hell, even the Western journos and many Ukrainian politicians did not feel threatened while they were in Kiev. The spectacle of the "40 mile column" did exactly its job, it created uncertainty and drew the attention of all the media and drawing Ukrainian drones to it like moth to a flame (drones that were easily shot down in first two weeks). TOTAL Russian casualties some days before they drew out of Kiev were 1350 dead and 3500 wounded (excluding DPR and LPR), so they did not "sacrifice" some massive numbers as claimed.
@@user-dp4ok9ox5w i could not agree with you less. Especially when you start quoting "humanitarian corridors", and quoting casualty numbers that are straight out of Russian talking points, which are plain ridiculous at face value, and are just plain lies due to the source. Yes, i cannot believe anything that comes out from that source. 98% lies. I am not going to say that everything from Western source is all truth, but at least it is somewhat verifiable and can be cross referenced and checked, so i'd say about 40% lies In any case, whatever you believe and present as your case, will play itself out in next few weeks. The repeat of Battle of Kursk is looming almos 80 years after the original, except it is the Russians are in the role of German army, and Ukrainian forces are defending their land. Also, Russians are apparently still fighting with outdated technology and strategies. While Ukrainians have been equipped with much more modern weapons, so even though they lack the massive armor, they will be conducting more drone-driven combat. Regardless of what the outcome of the Battle of Donbass will be Russia has lost in long term. They will have Ukrainian resistance to contend with for years (if you disagree, you don't understand Ukrainians), and European sanctions while Putin is in power. CHina will take over most of Siberia, and "the stans" will go to the Taliban. All this is IMO, of course.
There's a book on my shelf I've yet to read (eyes aren't up to the task) called Salt. It covers all the wars that were actually about salt, which was one of those core economic resources everyone depended upon. Water? That one possibly might be in our future, unfortunately, if we play our cards wrong :(
Thanks for watching spare parts army. Do you think the Russian's will be able to regroup and reorganize for attacks in the east? Do you believe the key strategic objectives are in the east or is that not true? Always really appreciate your feedback - even if its constructive criticism! I'm trying my best to learn and grow at this. *If I seem happy it’s because I am happy about the news that Ukraine is keeping Kyiv for now. *
Truth be told, the units that go out are months away from being back to their original size and effectiveness.
Long live the russian bear! Down with the trix of mit6 & cia. Go take care of your starving ppl instead of enriching the pockets of arm manufacturers & fuel companies.
I'm an old Intel analyst. I see big doctine changes in the near future... Like maybe tomorrow. 🇺🇦
@@stophate2023 regardless of what you are in due time western ukraine will be a failed state, its bandera nazi hooligans pouring in drugs, arms & weapons into western europe. Nobody in europe want your gas & oil 5 times more expensive and ppl will get tired of your trix. Dont let this silly honeymoon drunken your judgment "old intel guy". The narcissistical, psyco US FP is coming to an end.
"We have been left no other option to protect Russia and our people, but for the one that we will be forced to use today. The situation requires us to take decisive and immediate action. The people's republics of Donbas turned to Russia with a request for help."
-President Vladimir Putin
Yeah seems like is what putin wanted from the start, at the same time it's really hard to confirm because goals change all the time, maybe when possible, they would have taken kiev. I dunno man too complex.
"An enemy can never learn your attack plan, if you don't make one to follow in the first place."
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I defeated my childhood abusers with that.... 😎
This video got about 80% of his claims right.
Some serious mistakes/ too-certain unlikely conclusions:
1.) Believing without any doubt the Russian propaganda claimed that 300 Ukrainian marines surrendered. VERY doubtful that the video is genuine, some serious inconsistencies in the footage according to military veterans --> like clean-shaved and spotty clean soldiers in a siege setting, no run-down dirty uniforms, full military jacket pockets that would get emptied first-thing upon surrender, for safety reasons, just to name some of the most glaring examples.
2.) The Helicopter raid was very likely conducted by Ukraine forces, they're just mocking Russians on how Russia lies about their own operations, absurdly obviously.
It was clear for anyone reading between the lines of what Ukraine's spokesman said (I believe it was someone like the Defence minister of Ukraine).
@@elektrotehnik94 are you on drugs?
@@Samurai___Jack he somewhat has a point though, a Filipino defense page made a breakdown of the videos and they pointed out that one of the soldiers still had frag grenades on his vest, which they say is kinda weird because normally in every video of soldiers surrendering, first thing that gets confiscated is any weapons they have on them
@@elektrotehnik94 There are reports of aid workers being able to get into Mariupol just this week and citizens able to get out. Not in huge numbers, talking single didgits. HOWEVER, those who have gotten out said they want to go back to help others escape. The town might be encircled but poorly. Russians just can't coordinate and communicate down there, they knocked out the power and the cell network which is what their fancy comms system uses to function.
A nod; besides the water supply to Crimea, I wasn't aware of the natural gas in the Donbas area, but I recently learned Eastern Ukraine has a large supply of lithium. I heard of oil and gas in the Black Sea as well, not far from Crimea. I've only recently begun learning about the economic aspects of Ukraine, and I've been stunned. Thanks for that T64BV Salient Attack breakdown. I watched that clip earlier but couldn't understand if mortars or artillery were being used. Thanks for this video.
None of that is new im pretty sure. But nobody exploited the gas / oil because it would cause terrain instability in a heavily urbanized and populated area (Donetsk), and the problem with lithium is pollution in the middle of farmlands. I think this is sort of meh of an argument. Now apparently gas was found in the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea, thats a lot more interesting.
They also have a large supply of titanium, uranium and coal. Coal is still vital in steel production.
Natural gas and other resources that should have brought the region money, but because the Nazis couldn't stop shelling the region and killing people, the production companies pulled out and left the region impoverished. Freedom from their oppressors is the best thing to ever happen to these people
The east is also the breadbasket, where the best soil is, where much wheat is grown.
Russia needs to be stopped. Get mad, write letters, do what you can.
I remember reading that massive deposits of oil and gas were found off the coast of Ukraine, west of Crimea, which explains further why they took the peninsula and explains why they initiated the fighting in the Donbas. Crimea to lay claim to the resources, Donbas to inhibit Ukraine's ability to exploit the resources remaining under their control. No International Oil or Gas Company would invest millions of Dollars when all could be lost in the case something like what is happening today is a likely outcome. Ukraine could've took over a share of Oil and Gas exports to Europe and that would mean lost revenue for Russia, revenue that makes up 40% of its yearly budget. Without the money from oil and gas Russia would in the worst case scenario collapse.
I have received more information about the current situation in Ukraine by watching this 21 minute video then I have watching news, other video sources, or reading updated online reports. Very well explained video. Thank you.
Thinking exactly that....
No you haven’t
You have not been watching enough then ,but Yes, the guy has a lot in one video rather than trying to learn from multiple sources.
here is the REAL deal
czcams.com/video/seDi09dFurk/video.html&ab_channel=Itapirkanmaa2
czcams.com/video/QD_-ak6vVzg/video.html
love the way this guy lays it out without any kind of prejudice . man make weekly war run down series
14 out of 20 Russian Generals think the plan is going along swimmingly. Don't ask about the 6.
You mean 14 out of 14?
You either got Grunts or Generals that is a crazy way to set up your military
7…
@@leovang3425 13 of 13
A story from my conscripted servicetime in Finnish military, in light mortar platoon: During the ww2 when attacking, mortar platoon moved behind the attacking rifle company and phonecable was used an indicator and measuring device. A measured lenght of wire was dragged by FO group and mortar platoon followed the other end of wire. When wire stopped moving, phone was connected and mortars were deployed immediately. Quite accurate fire could be layed on the target in minute or two, as calculations are simple and no position measurements are needed. Usually after 1st shells dropped and fire was corrected, second shells hit the mark. During peacetime this was forbidden to train as it requires to fire directly over own troops and is dangerous.
That is actually brilliant. Thanks for sharing!
This is an awesome story!
Impressive
very interesting mortar tactic that I was not aware of , its a shame troops couldnt train on this with dummy munitions or something. thanks for the insight into the Finnish military
intersting. usually i scroll thru the commets while watching/listening to the video. i paused for this comment. thank you! finland. great people, sauna, food and drinks and - simo haya.
And lastly. ....... you're spot on about the water thing, this is something that most people know absolutely nothing about. The gas fields yes but not the critical water problem in the Crimea.
The advances in the south also create a land bridge between Crimea and Russia making it easier to transport goods and opens the black sea to Russian trade companies
Gooner. 72 I've always wondered why the Russians didn't bomb the Damn, with guided missile's, after it was constructed in 2016. After all fresh water is a necessity, that would of have been a legitimate bombing situation.
After reading the horrific memoirs of a German soldier who fought in this region 70 years ago, it's so whack hearing names like Belgorod, Kharkov, and Konotop again in the context of a modern conflict.
In a month, Russia will announce the success of the second phase. They will clarify that liberating Donbas was just a ruse. The main goal all along was to capture FSB most wanted: a guy named Don Bass. It's the classic Russian Matryoshka strategy. The goal becomes smaller and smaller with each phase. The Russians are demonstrating tactical flexibility in how they manage their expectations.
And that guy named Don Bass would probably be one of their own agents
Ruzzians be like : oh noo guys it was our plan all along uniting the western world against us totally part of our plan to force all countries to join nato
lol Mr. Bass must have 6 stars.
Matryoshka spectations, lmao. Hahaha.
"It's the classic Russian Matryoshka strategy. The goal becomes smaller and smaller with each phase."
You owe me a new keyboard.
Admitting being wrong about the outcome of the battle of Kiev is why I watch this CZcams channel for war updates. Literally everyone thought kiev would fall in a month but nobody wants to admit it.
Of course everyone thought it would fall. It should have fallen. No one can reasonably make an assessment based on the enemy being completely incompetent. You can't make that assumption. One plans for the worst and hopes for the best. In this instance, the best happened, but it took a complete bungling of the whole thing. From the planning, execution and support. The Russians mucked it up. One can never count on that happening.
@@crownprincesebastianjohano7069 or the Russians didn’t want lots of civ deaths so they didn’t fully utilize the rocket arty like in Chechnya
I'm one of those rare people who can admit when I was wrong. I fully expected the country gonne in a month. The Ukrainians are fighting God tier in round 1. I hope to see them do as good in round 2.
@@crownprincesebastianjohano7069 Well the Russians did try to invade what used to be called Russia in winter…..
Old news bro
Love you man, keep making videos - you always cheer me up! Your honesty humor and perspective are very welcomed during this age. *I salute you, soldier!*
Amazing channel. Titles are a bit clickbaity but the commentary and insight on the special military operation are brilliant. Subscribed!
Other thing... If you remember, the major clashes in Donbass started with Igor Girkin's special forces group taking Slovyansk. Why Slovyansk, which is deep inside of Ukraine? So, because is in the center of Yuzivka gas field, where Ukraine with help of Shell planned to produce about 10 bln of cubic meters of gas every year back in the 2013. With addition of gas from crimean sea shelf, Ukraine for 2020 could reduce drastically dependence from russian gas supply.
That’s an old legend. Slavyansk and Kramatorsk have been under Ukrainian control since summer of 2014, no gas anywhere
@@ironrye4317 There is a massive oil/gas field by the donbass region. Russia took over Crimea for its oil as well.
@@ironrye4317 hmm interesting, why Shell have not continued gas exploration in the area just 100km away from the active frontline.
there is massive new found shale gas all over Donbass region and East, all the places Russians just happen to be fighting to conquer.
One can't help but ask if Azerbaijan will be next, since they are challenging Russian gas supply to EU throughout TAP.
I always have respect for people who admit that they were wrong. Thank you for making these videos. Your perspective is valuable.
my pet theory about Kiev falling to Russia by the end of April was flat out wrong and I'm happy to admit it. That's how I constantly update my understanding of what's the reality of what is happening on the ground.
Best analysis I have heard so far. This makes perfect sense. Keep up the great work.
Commenting from Ukraine. All of your information and analysis seems correct and true. Thank you for keeping us in the spotlight. In these times of great change, it's better to have informed people all over the globe.
4:15 just wanted to add on this point.
During the Gulf War, an American battleship (forget which one) was conducting shore bombardment operations and used an UAV drone to spot targets for the guns.
Iraqi soldiers knew if that spotted them, they’d be dead within seconds, so they waved white flags of surrender to the drone.
Not sure how you can surrender to an artillery spotter drone when you’re a good little ways behind your lines, but interesting tidbit.
Three Iowa Class Battleships to be exact. The Missouri, Wisconsin and Iowa. (British Documentary)
@@diligentone-six2688 Iowa was not in the battle area.
They also tried to surrender to US attack helicopter.
Majority of Iraq troops were not interested in fighting, and considering the conditions in Iraqi military I cant really blame them. They would get forcefully conscripted, given a plastic helmet (I'm not joking) and they would had to spend years on frontlines.
@@dariozanze4929 true that. One of the reasons 100s of thousands surrendered at the first available opportunity.
@@shaider1982 It was, indeed, Wisconsin. Hard to believe my grandfather served on her in WWII.
So the actual reasoning for the “cope cages” is not avinât nlaw or javelin. What the Russians learned in grozny is that small teams with anti tank weapons like the RPG-7. Or similar weapons. On top of building can knock out a tank with a well placed shot on the weak turret armour. These weapons unlike javelin. Do not use a tandem charge warhead. So the “cope cages” will detonate older warheads prematurely. Possibly saving the crew.
I think spookston made a great video talking about these “cope cages”.
Cope cage on top of a tank is a defence against Bayraktar UCAV.
Perhaps if the NLAW flies 1 meter above the tank it will hit the cage before the warhead even has a chance to detonate?
Exactly
RPGs don't have tandem warheads? I seem to remember firing many
An explanation I heard is that I'd the warhead hits the bars of the cage without setting off the fuse it will deform the casing of the warhead. Making the shaped charge much less effective.
I enjoy your briefings . Thsnk you for doing them
That “Cope Cage” is the “login” button on Windows 98. Just click Cancel, and you can log in anyway.
The initial version of Starsreak was laser only. However as of years ago, the current version was upgraded to Starstreak II. It now also has fire & forget, day & night optics etc.
Damn, I didn't know that
And the upgrade is being used to save humanity from the fascist orcs, well done
This channel consistently gets all the important things WRONG
Than flares would have still world
i don't think the Ukrainians are getting the latest and greatest versions tho just in case they get captured. i think these powers just have a good way of clearing out the stockpiles of older stuff without just scraping it.
So the moral of this story is if you find gas fields on your territory, _keep quiet about it._
Gas not oil if oil was there America will be the one instead of Russia
I've been saying the same thing about oil for years! Thank you!! Finally someone else said it!
Great analysis! I love your humor, and sweet special effects too :-)
I really love how you confidently mispronounce all the Ukrainian place names. You don't even hesitate, just pick a pronunciation and go with it. The salient maneuver of CZcams videos!
P.S. This is especially funny due to all the efforts to get "desertification" right... at 13:03
His mispronunciations are legendary...
Pure Six Sigma
@Bruhm Stick Cappy usually calls himself an "average infantryman", never an expert. But you are welcome to point out where he says he's an expert.
@Bruhm Stick Ah, yes you're right. Cappy is pretending to be an expert. Especially when he punches himself in the dick. That just screams "expert".
Thanks for pointing that out, Captain Obvious.
The cope cage is actually to trap RPGs fired from rooftops in built up areas - the Russians had a bad time with these in Chechnya. It's not designed for javelins or NLAWs.
That makes more sense
Exactly the same reason most US armor had cage and slat armor welded on during Iraq and Afghanistan. It's pretty common for most modern military vehicles, since RPG 7 is so plentiful and the cages work decently often, more than enough to be worth the small amount of extra weight. The reason Russia's is more on top is because they were getting shot at in Syrian city streets from rooftops. US armor was dealing with ambushes from the sides, so most cage armor on US strykers is side-mounted.
Yet the tanks in urban areas seem to have removed these cages.
@@mver191 because not all have them outfitted some have some don't what you think the Russians waste time taking off the cage when they enter a city lol
@@wrpg9955 Because it gets stuck on everything and reveals your position. It's not worth it.
Yooooo hahahahaha the intro to this video almost made me spit out my drink I was laughing so hard. keep it coming with he great videos, and GLORY TO UKRAINE!!
I don't know how I got here, but I just learned more from this video than any other that I've watched in the past month. Great information.
Just a technical note: Theres no river flowing to Crimea, its man made canal build during Soviet times to help poor Crimea region.
There was arid semidesert and steppes before the canal was built and it is becoming one once again. The salinsation was and is happening due to the cannal (evaporating mineralisied river water does that everywhere in the world), its effect are worse and more visible when the water stops flowing.
To help crimea the region.
Makes sense. Desertification that severe can’t happen in only 8 years.
Anyone remember the aral sea drying up causing destructive climate change after the soviet unions interference? They tried to divert water by building a mega dam for massive cotton production. but it backfired shrinking the aral sea causing it's salt to dry and be carried in the wind and landing in the earth making the countries surrounding lands infertile and useless for agriculture.
(there's a documentary about it if anyone wants proof)
yes great point I sorta misspoke there. I wanted to go into more detail about the canal and its history of being built by the soviets but I thought I'd be getting too much in the weeds about the water issue . glad to see people are interested in that part of the war , its important we try to understand some of the pressures that push major powers towards conflict.
Should be noted that Russia swiped up Ukraine's largest coal mines in the east back in 2014, forcing Ukraine to buy their coal far from Africa. So it makes sense as the retribution as Ukraine is right next to their taken coal mines while Crimea is right next to their water supply Russia can't get.
Always great to see these posts! One of the only honest and reliable sources we have on this subject that I can find that is as informative as he is
thanks but the real work is being done by the Institute for the study of war , Rob Lee on instagram and even the ANNA News network that's a pro russian source that I'm able to use when its accurate.
Liveuamaps is also good
Not to honest.. He should being neutral not pro ukraine or russia
Honest?
Reliable?
😀😀😀
OMFG...!
@@randomthing4639 why? It's good to be pro Ukraine, they are repelling a foreign army. What you mean to say is it's good to be accurate in your assessment of the situation, not overly rosy about the situation for either country. There's a difference. I want Ukraine to fertilize it's fields with a generation of young Russian men, but realistically it'll probably flare out in some manner of stalemate in the East where the lines are far from urban areas that have substantial defender bonuses like they had in the suburbs of Kiev.
Great video! I like how you show the areas of interest and possible reasons why Russia is focusing on those locations.
Lol swiper no swiping!! Great videos cappy!
wait, people are *surprised* that wars are fought over resources? seriously?! that's the most straightforward reason in the world for war!
Freaking thank you! I have been waiting for just one, ONE, person to talk about the Crimea and the water supply in the last two weeks. You are the first.
Love your videos man. Very informative.
these videosw are so much better than anything else ive seen about what going on in the war..can you do updates every week on the war? would be great
The symbolism of putting a cage on top of a tank meant to protect people who were drafted into war isn't lost on me.
@Joshua Bailey what?
@Joshua Bailey Yeah... prehaps this isn´t the best name, I admit ... But it´s just a Resident Evil reference just so you know.
@@SignalLost730 ...yet.
@@SignalLost730 Either way, a lot of russian troops were misled into the war... I mean... "Special military operation", "peacekeeping force", "denazification force", "liberation force" or whatever bs umbrella term they decide to use these days.
I've been under the impression that the cope cages are more to protect against light AT weapons being fired above the tanks from buildings in cities. A lesson learned in Grozny. That doesn't mean they aren't still cope cages, just that who ever came up with the idea probably didn't think they would protect against NLAWs etc.
yes this is a valid possible scenario. Tank armor is usually good enough to not have to worry about RPG's, they never added cage armor to the Abrams. Could be that they need it for the T72 , great feedback thanks for pointing this out
@@Taskandpurpose As a general rule, the roof of a tank is quite thin armor protection wise. A simple RPG does have a fair shot of hitting something critical when firing down on a tank from above. They were expecting most of the resistance to be in the cities. So it made sense.....when you assume the Ukrainians will simply not resist as you roll in and "liberate" them from the Big Bad Nazis.
Sometimes you have to try shit and Jerry rig stuff and make it work in the field. Even if it helps only 15% it’s better than nothing. WW2 they would attach logs of wood to the sides of their tanks
@@codeman9145 that was mainly to help their tanks get better tractions if they got stuck in something muddy or such if I recall.
@@alexhurlbut Logs were another improvised armor added to tanks during WWII. However, they could also be removed from the tank and placed under the tracks in boggy terrain for additional traction. In fact, many Soviet tanks left the factory with logs mounted for this reason. As armor, however, logs did not offer much protection
Thank for the knowledge bro, subscribed
Best Commentary on this war I have ever seen. Good work bro.
The Russians appear to be making the same mistakes as the USA did in the War of 1812.
Mistake #1: Underestimate the enemy. "The conquest of Canada will be a mere matter of marching." - US president Thomas Jefferson.
In 1812, Napoleon was at the peak of his power. Poised to invade Russia, which is at the opposite end of Europe from France. The British regular forces in Canada were drawn down to fight in Europe. And the US government convinced itself that the Canadians were all secretly yearning to join the USA. All they had to do was march the US army into Canada and overwhelm the tiny British regular force as the Canadians welcomed their "liberators."
The problem with that plan is that the Canadians had slightly different plans, which included fighting to the death to defend their country. Putin made the exact same mistake. He figured that the Ukrainians would not put up significant resistance, because so many of them were yearning for reunification with Russia. Bad mistake.
Mistake #2: Logistics. "Amateurs talk about strategy. Professionals talk about logistics." - US General Omar Bradley
In 1812, the Canadian logistics were waterborne, along the St. Lawrence River and over the Great Lakes. The way to conquer Canada is to cut its supply lines by capturing its logistical base at Quebec City. Then all of Canada will fall, because there is no other way to get supplies.
The US tried to do just that in 1775, but were defeated by the city walls of Quebec. Today, the city walls are a big tourist attraction, as is the massive fortifications of La Citadelle (which is an official Royal Palace of the Queen of Canada). In 1812 the USA did not even try to capture Quebec. All that money spent on fortifications really paid off!
Instead, the Americans tried attacking what is today Ontario, thereby attacking up Canada's supply lines. Today, the Russian Army is making the exact same mistake. The Ukrainian forces are being supplied through their western border. So a logistically sound strategy would be to invade western Ukraine from Belarus and seal off that western border. Then the Ukrainian Army (and the rest of the country!) has their supply lines cut. None of those wonderful NATO weapons get through. Russian victory follows.
But instead, the Russian Army is fighting in western and northern Ukraine. Thereby allowing the Ukrainian Army to be supplied by NATO. Dumb move!
Mistake #3: Wreak your economy. "Three things are required to fight a war. 1. Money. 2. Money. 3. Money." -Raimondo Montecuccoli
In 1812, the USA was subjected to a complete and total naval blockade. The British Army was indeed stretched thin in Europe. But after the Battle of Trafalgar, the Royal Navy had plenty of ships to blockade the USA. So they did, and the US economy collapsed.
Today, Putin is wreaking the Russian economy by provoking international economic sanctions. This will make it very difficult to fight the war, and may result in a backlash from the Russian people who really do not like being quite so poor.
Mistake #4: Make a permanent enemy.
Before 1812, there actually was a significant segment of opinion in Canada that did favour close relations or political unification with the USA. After 1812 all such talk was treasonous. The war eliminated the pro-American element in Canada. Even trade relations were suspicious. As late as 1911, the Conservative Party won an election with the slogan, "No truck nor trade with the Yankees!."
Putin is making the same mistake in Ukraine. Before his invasion, there was a strong pro-Russian element in Ukraine. Many of its citizens were of Russian origin. There was a pro-Russian government in Kiev before the "Orange Revolution" in 2004. But not any more. Russia has now made a long-term enemy of Ukraine. I predict that after the war is over, being pro-Russian will be politically toxic.
So there we have it. The four mistakes that the US government made in the War of 1812, and the same identical mistakes made by Putin today.
And 5 , Just like Saddam Hussein overstretched his army's supply lines and was unable to secure air superiority in the Iran Iraq war, The Russians repeated Saddam's mistake .
Great analysis!
@@patriotenfield3276 He did not counted on Iran's resolve to defend own country, when you read about people volunteering to clean minefields by running across them, it's tough opponent. As far as I know, plus the Shah's army of Iran was determined to kick him out.
Great correlation. Like this comment guys.
Nobody yearns to be part of Russia
POL depot attack possibility: If you've been embezzling a good part of your army's gas money, like so they don't have enough gas to drive all the trucks once a month, then the surest way NOT to have to account for the missing gas is to claim it was destroyed in an enemy attack. Comrade Colonel, why is there no gas in your depot? Well Comrade General, it was destroyed by the dastardly Ukrainian army, pay no mind to my new house at the sea shore, or the matching G wagons in its driveway.
Your comment reminds me of the true story where Clint Eastwood stole the top secret Russian jet Fire Fox and defeated the enemy by "thinking Russian". Genuinely though, your analysis makes sense and I highly recommend the 1982 film. Thanks for posting.
that would be a pretty big brain move, that colonel should be leading the invasion if he's that smart.
Much more likely than a false flag operation. Especially if Putin is "retiring" generals in Siberia and all of a sudden they need to start hiding their embezzlement.
@@stratecal796But if he was leading the invasion it would mean he was too dumb to bribe the right people to stay out of that mess.
@@stratecal796 He'd be able to afford way more houses near the sea shore
Admittedly I haven't been your biggest fan but I love your take on war for oil. I couldn't agree more with every word about it.
I really appreciate your walkthrough of the Ukrainian ambushing footage near the beginning of you video. I'd seen the footage before, but your explanation made it much more clear what was happening.
That the Russians sent their best airborne shock troops from Belarus to capture major airfields and hold them also makes me think that the 40km convoy was originally intended to be a resupply and enforcement. This elite unit deployment failed and that's part of the reason the 40km convoy just sat there. The Ukrainians felt the convoy was not any imminent threat so they just left it alone and only took on those Russian forces that were an actual and attacking threat.
They went an Airport too far..
I don't think they "left" the convoy alone. they just couldn't attack it.
This ∆
They did not leave the convoi alone. There was plenty of evidence of Ukrainian Ambushes, Artillery strikes and drone strikes against parts of the konvoi, and anywhere from dozens to hundreds of vehicles were destroyed. However, there was a hughe amount of vehicles in that konvoi in total, so destroying it fully would take a lot longer than they had.
Also, the konvoi wasn't really a konvioi to be precise, considering there were gaps in in that sometkmes exceeded a kilometre between vehicle groups, which probably helped with the ambushes.
Apparently the Ukrainians slipped into their communications and told the troops that were supposed to encircle Kyiv that their resupply was only hours away. They kept that up for days. They also stalled the convoy early on which further contributed to the chaos.
Cappy I think you misunderstand the point of the cage. It's most likely that slat armor like this is used to protect the vehicle against older HEAT weapons like RPGs. Specifically, if RPGs are fired from rooftops in urban areas like in Mariupol. Furthermore smaller munitions dropped by drones also have the potential to be stopped by this slat armor. It's pretty useless against Javelins though or other types of larger munitions.
Correct, came here to say just this... The cage is used for defense from top attacks against small caliber RPGs, hand grenades, small suicide drones, thrown moltovs and thrown mines in urban warfare. Cage won't work against Javelins and NLAWs.
Plus if it's on every vehicle why do we mostly see videos of ones without them being blown up?
Interesting that no cope cages have featured in the Mariupol front. Also not used near Kiev for the mist part. But your point is valid.
Kinda funny how certain people stopped calling it cope cage when the Chieftain called them retarded indirectly
Yes but the majority of weapons being used be Ukraine are inlaws and other more advanced weapons so your point is only necessary to a civilian thinking he can take a tank out from above
This is brilliant. Why the main news agencies don't hire you as a commentator is a mystery.
Thank you very much for this video...i find the insights you are giving very interesting and useful.
Actually, ukrainian officials don’t recognize attacks on Belgorod, just to troll Russia, they constantly do so in an ironic manner. They are using the same tactics, which Russia used in Crimea and Donbass, when it completely denied presence of their soldiers there.
I think Ukraine "neither confirmed or denied" the attack on Belgorod out of a request from the US - who would have protested this idea as an "escalation".
@@saumyacow4435 nah, President’s adviser and speaker of Defense council, both pretty directly repeated former russian official statements, its long-reaching interpersonal conflict, don’t overestimate american influence
That's what I was thinking - it sounded exactly like the Russian denials of obvious Russian actions.
Meanwhile, I think everyone in the region knew it was Ukraine that carried out the raid and morale was affected accordingly. Ukrainians knew that their forces had pulled off an absolutely beautiful mission, hitting a valuable target inside of supposedly safe Russian territory while taking no losses and causing no harm to civilians, and the Russians knew they had been embarrassed by the country they had expected to defeat in days. And, overall, it was a message, whether or not it was intended to be one. The message was that Ukraine isn't going to back down and isn't going to give concessions to Russia.
I saw this raid compared to the Doolittle Raid in WW2. I think that is an apt comparison as it did the same thing - it showed the aggressor that their home territory was impregnable and it made a huge crack in the propaganda they were feeding to their population.
As far as the "false flag" idea, I don't think this was ever a likely candidate for that. If the Russians were going to carry out a false flag attack, it would be something that would be calculated to cause outrage among their population and, they would hope, the rest of the world. It wouldn't be a legitimate military target like an oil depot. This attack made Ukraine look great and made Russia look bad. I sincerely doubt the Russians would have done that to themselves.
@@steelytemplar you’re 100% right bro
fun fact: recognizing it or not doesnt mean anything.
either ukraine did it or its a false flag, russia could shift to scorched earth from handbrake offensive.
I really want to see berlin, dresden or hiroshima liked destruction in west or eastern europe in my lifetime.
Honestly I’d great seeing such great information. It doesn’t get boring and stays on topic. This is my favorite channel
Thanks, Cap. Excellent.
So well explained. Thank you very much
"we are going to De-Nazify Ukraine".. "Oh look, We've captured an oil field by mistake, how could this have happened?".
Based on the drubbing the NatsBats are taking, denazification is well in progress.
😂
Ukraine is playing chess, while Putin is playing russian roulette
Must have been WMDs in those fields
I feel fairly certain in saying this is the most accurate, honest, up to date information on the war in Ukraine from where I'm sitting. Thankyou for taking the time to shed some light
lol if you believe everything this youtuber is talking about then you're a zombie :D
lookup Patrick Lancaster on CZcams
@@queenofclean5504 wow, seriously thankyou. I hate the fact I've got to watch multiple different new stories from different broadcasters to form an accurate opinion, this cuts that down significantly
Great job! Very informative.
Cappy, you're a card and also a smart, insightful critic (in the best sense) of the "spec-op" in Ukraine.
Keep up your excellent analyses; they will be future historic gold.
Pathetic! and above all... a completely incompetent analysis. Check Scott Ritter.
just wanna say thank you for the awesome informative content! Im glad I randomly stumbled upon your channel. :) Sure makes me wish I could've studied military history in university!
This is why we need to invest in modern advanced nuclear energy options. Small form reactors, LFTRs, Thorium Reactors, liquid reactors, with modern technology, engineering, material science, safety measures understandings and designs, computer technology, robotics, It will really allow any nation to be pretty much be energy independent. Less reliant on fossil fuels. They'll have efficient, stable electrical grids and the rest of the grid could experiment with alternative power sources, etc.
100%
Solar energy and large scale grid storage are hugely promising and are even affordable once you make the necessary initial investments. Also, even less reliant on external mineral supplies than nuclear power, not to mention safer mines and MUCH safer waste products.
@@notabagel But for now nuclear is definitlly good option, once batteries get a serious efficiency boost then the entire grid can become green
Yes, need to make this oil madness go away, nuclear is good, but dam 6 years to complete a plant. Germany is keeping to decommission existing plants, hope Germany changes this stance as all of europe is dependent on that (eu funds for nuclear development).
At the moment, not a single watt of electricity is being generated by thorium. At such time when a commercially viable thorium reactor comes online and starts pumping power into the grid, it's still hypothetical. In addition to the options you mentioned, we should also be pursuing solar and wind just as hard. Unlike thorium, both of those technologies are actually putting power into the grid right now.
To all the naysayers this is a classic tactic on the part of russia that can be applied to any game of strategy. I was once playing chess against a brilliant chess player and he had captured my queen , both my bishops and enough other "important" pieces that most would consider the game lost. He fell into my trap though. I screamed at the top of my lungs, shit my pants and ran out of the room and took a bus home. To this day i still haven't lost that game of chess.
The "defending army" of Mariupol speaks another language than the city speaks. The "Attack Army" speaks the same language as the city. What is that gambit called again?
You have at the first half not gonna lie
@@cornpop3159 uh no, Mariupol is majority Ukrainian. why the hell are you spreading nonsense??
@@bigstanko7391 You have to be really stupid to believe russian propaganda.
Fortunately for russia about half the population is really stupid.
Did you remember to go back for your car later?
holy shit, THANK YOU! for explaining to me how the artillery fire works. I've been wondering for a while now.
You have gotten very good at making these very interesting videos. Just the right amount of comedy along with very good descriptions of battle tactics.
Something that was pointed out about the 'cope cages' on another channel (I want to say it was Lazerpig, but don't quote me), is that they may of been intended with another battle in mind. That the Russians may of expected to get stuck in to proper city fighting, and that they were going to potentially take fire from RPG-7's and anti-tank grenades from elevated positions (IE: Buildings). So possibly less not understanding the weapon systems used against them, and more expecting a different fight than they wound up with.
I think that was Spookston, not LazerPig.
That actually makes sense. Cope cages might be effective in, say, Syria against RPGs fired from above.
I think they could also provide an elevated point to pitch a tarp and camo' net over to hide from infrared cameras when encamped.
It must be working great, because I've yet to see any video of Russian tanks with netting over them /s.
That was my thought on seeing them; they look like the slat armor the US started putting on its vehicles in Iraq during OEF after pushing into the big cities. And if we are honest, they probably did not anticipate just how many ATGM systems we would import to Ukraine, and how quickly that happened, so they went in assuming they'd lose SOME vehicles to modern ATGMs, but the main threat would be RPG-7's and the like, against which those slat cages work fairly well.
@@Shaun_Jones Probably. I watch both their videos.
Damn your videos are super entertaining 👏
After all, any good special military operation training must always include 1 to 2 day tactical -reroute drills- retreat and regroup course.
"Don't invade countries that gets lots of MANPADS and SAMs from NATO"
-Sun Tzu, circa 1094
Hahahaha lol
"Otherwise you'll get you wigs split"
-Big Herc
That Russian soldier firing the shoulder fired Anti-Armor projectile literally hit the Broadside of a barn lmfao
Lol, at least nobody can say to him " you can't hit the broadside of a barn. 🤣
Dude, I am surprised you didn't attain the rank of five star general during military career.
Keep doing your research - you have a long way to go!
Last 10 minutes- Fascinating! Thanks
I learned about the oil and gas reserves a few days after the invasion. Looked up a few articles about the politics playing out in Ukraine in 2010-2014... Most of what I learned pointed toward this being a war about petroleum and Russia not wanting to lose the EU market to Ukraine. Also, remember there is a large petro reserves in the black sea off the coast of Crimea as well.
Not just the EU but the western Balkans as well. Forcing energy dependence on Russia is a big part of how they've kept their influence in the region.
@@doge8726 NATOs agreement was with the USSR which isn't a country anymore therefore it's void and if THAT hasn't made it void then the fact that Putin tried to join NATO has. Furthermore, NATO isn't holding countries to gun point, the countries are joining NATO because they've had experience living under the USSR and they don't want to repeat that with Russia.
Well whatever oil and gas they will find won’t benefit them when they are sanctioned and are on the brink of default
@@doge8726 nato did not expand. Every country that joined nato did so voluntarily. And good thing they did otherwise Russia would have invaded them already
@@doge8726 NATO never accepted Russia into the coalition
Re: Cope Cages. Absolutely zero use against a modern ATGM like NLAW or Javelin. However. The Ukrainians were also dropping anti-tank grenades (yeah AT Grenades) from commercial quad-copter drones. They are effective at protecting against those, as well as RPG-7 fired from above in urban areas.
Exactly
Some of those cope cages wont even stop and RPG, have seen what they are made out of..
a lot of them however aren't since a lot of the convoys using them are using makeshift or handwelded cages made out of refuse metals or cheap alloys that are then layered onto with gear/sandbags/bedrolls for the soldiers which reduces overall effectiveness
Cope Cages are just there for nostalgic reasons~ in WW2 a lot of soviet tanks fighting in urban areas (especially in berlin) used some of the weirdest stuff to built those cages. Have seen pictures where they basicly welded metal bedframes into cages. So my best guess here is, they just add it to get stalins approval and thus a +10 def buff.. only thing those orcs forgot is that the ukrainians have that +50 crit damage boost because of the "mr.worldwide homie buff"
Proof or source? I wanna know more
The purpose of the cage on the top is to detonte the shaped charges a bit further away from the tank. Since its a HEAT round, it triggers upon contact on anything, and so they are trying to make the fuse activate earlier
Yeah he’s very aware but that spaced cage armor is insufficient, first off both nlaws and javelins use tandem charges so they have 2 separate heat rounds contained in the warhead, second off, they wouldn’t detonate on impact with something that weak, cages like that are used in US TUSK loadouts for things like abrams and Bradleys because they work on things like rpgs, but not something like these
Cataclysmic Delta I thought NLAWs don’t have tandem but compensate with an overpowered charge and penetrator.
@TAWOG high explosive anti tank
and thats how you actually spell it to differentiate it from the word "heat"
@@MildMisanthropeMaybeMassive I think they do let me check
@@MildMisanthropeMaybeMassive it doesnt
Super great summary! That gas field has always bothered me
You mentioned oil and I think this is absolutely something that people keep missing. I believe wholeheartedly oil/gas is Russia’s bigger objective.
Those huge oil fields plus huge gas fields in the Black Sea were discovered in 2010. Ukraine began allowing foreign corporations to set up shop and start drilling in 2012 (Shell, etc). This was absolutely huge considering how the West desperately wants to reduce energy dependence on Russia.
Well, what happened 2 years later? Crimea, Donbas, etc. With the fighting, foreign corporations fled and by stealing Crimea, Russia was able to seize 80% of Ukraine’s offshore gas reserves.
Russia is not an economic powerhouse outside of energy. Oil & Gas exports make up 50% of their GDP, with most of those earnings going toward their military. This is why any talk of reducing energy dependence on Russia and Russia immediately starts trying to flex their muscles. Putin knows they can’t remain a “superpower” without western energy dependence.
Oil and gas and to make Ukraine a defacto land lock country.
Western energy dependence is just one part. European industry sector would be neutered without access to cheap energy. Meanwhile, China was asking for more gas deliveries for years, especially to substitute Australian coal.
India and other countries as well, so everything that's not sold in Europe, will be sold to Asian countries. While Syria is blocking the way for the Arab pipeline to Turkey.
You have no idea what you are talking about clearly. You think the whole NATO issue had nothing to do with it? And your point about Russia wanting to preserve the Wests energy dependence is total horseshit. Russia was prepared to cut/lose the European market and is now shifting sales to Asia and anywhere else. There is no future European market save for a handful of sensible countries. They have been building new pipelines to China for a while which will re-route the energy.
@@Internetbutthurt Hey dingus, war is ALWAYS about the control of resources and the money and power derived from both. NATO being on Russia's border isn't a good enough reason to take the kind of unknown and unlimited risk Russia is currently taking by crossing a sovereign nations border to illegally and immorally annex it's land(s)...it's always about the money and the POWER, which in our epoch is driven by the apex essential commodity that is the building block of our entire global civilization, that being petroleum and it's derivative products.
climate change
Zelensky has asked a number of Western countries to individually sponsor the rebuild of areas in the east and along the coast. He invited Australia to sponsor one of the ports. A smart way to involve these countries in the defense of these regions going forward.
The west should help in the rebuilding, it would benefit everyone but Russia.
This is the "lease" part of "Lend-Lease" program. We lend you all the toys you could possibly ever want...you let us build stuff on your leased land.
I think everyone should stay TF out. Give them weapons cool..but zelenskyy is a dictator and almost no better than Putin. Fuk em both..sometimes you have to let two brothers fight it out and handle their differences. The west needs to stay out of this shit
China has invested some significant amounts of money in southern Ukraine and port infrastructure.
The west were investing before hand.. lots of debt built up from the war starting and putting an end to those investors, but yes new investors will be lined up who's investment lines a certain select few pockets discreetly or by proxy
I actually thought it was weird they were going after Kiev in the beginning of the invasion and I speculated it was a rear-action to cover their flank for the Donbass operation. Having said that, I don't think it's going very well. But I don't think the Russians thought it was going to be a cake walk either
Great analysis, insightful!
You ain’t some low brow grunt Cappie, you provide great insight! I am going to Ukraine with an aid group local to Ukraine and I follow you, S2 and Good Times Bad Times for the latest intel and perspectives to consider.
those are all great sources , thanks for lumping me in with them but they're the real deal !
Don’t forget to upload your position on reddit for the Upvoooots
@@mosesgoldbergshekelstien1520 reddit army at work 💪
@@alphanomad511 please, never type again
@@nathanboyles6222 nah, I'll keep writing
It's just probably another rumor on top of every other rumor, but the "Ukrainian helicopter attack" that happened in Russian/Belarus territory is being explained by some Ukrainian military sources as a "Third Party action".
I'm not sure who the hell is in possession of two fully armed ex Soviet attack helicopters, but that was probably the greatest Saturday night piss-up stunt I have ever heard of.
All I know is a lot of soviet equipment dissappeared when the soviet union fell
I've seen suggestion that Russia can't legally fully mobilize if it's not called a "war", hence the reason they call it a "special military operation". Maybe they want to play the victim and say they were attacked in their own territory so that they can justify calling it a war and mobilize more units. Unlikely, but at this point, who knows.
Plot twist it was NATO
Ukraine using Russia’s own plausible deniability BS dodge answer against them, just like with the “little green men.” “Who knows who attacked. Could have been anyone. We cannot confirm or deny who did it, but whoever did it must be preeeety bold.”
@@theirishempire4952 Naw it was totally some rando africain country.
I love when you show your green screen,it’s funny for some reason
Another great video and loved you in "the office"
The “cope cage” from my understanding isn’t supposed to be used to prevent anti tank weapons like javelin, but instead is supposed to prevent the use of loitering munitions or kamikaze drones. The Armenia-Azerbaijan war showed Russia just how affective loitering munitions are against Russian tanks. I found several news sources that discuss it extensively. The best one is Atlas news. You should definitely check them out
If you have been warching Russian news then they have mistly propagaded that the Cope Cage is meant for against Javelins, saying stuff like that the americans are wasting money with their fancy rockets and a metal cage can stop and javelin easily.
So you know trying to change peoples view of the cope cage is really a piece of spreading misinformation.
I though the cages were to activate warheads before they actually penetrated the tank armor.
@@stuartstuart866 Yeah. I just double checked and Javelin uses a contact fuse not a VT fuse, hence the cage will indeed make it detonate prematurely, just like fence armor on Leopard 2 and ZTZ99. However, considering that Javelin is Tandem charged and the top armor is less than 25mm thick while Javelin has a penetration of up to 750mm, I don't think that a metal cage will be enough. The fence armor on Leopard2 and ZTZ99 are in front of their turret side armor, which is thin, but still much thicker than the top armor.
Maybe cage would be better if they would put some reactive explosive armor on it
@@DavidSmith-nx3zw Even if the cope cage detonates the main warhead of the javelin, the air gam between the cage and roof of the tank isnt enough to degrade the penetration to safe levels. Even if the warhead detonates on the cope cage and then hits an ERA block the copper jet will still penetrate the tank. This isnt WoT where 1 mm of air gap stops a HEAT warhead.
Always love your coverage Cappy. Despite you self admitted bias this is by far the most informative and even sided review of the war. Hats off
Awesome presentation of our current situation! 🤘🏻
Great knowledge, thanks
Good... Your explanation about water to Crimea is the one of the key reasons behind Supreme Soviet of URSS (and not only Khrushev, as Putin misinformed) decision to traspass Crimea adminstration to Ukrainian Soviet Republic in 1954. As economical recuperation of Crimea was failing after WWII, soviet's high level hierarchy decided to supply water and other resourses to Crimea. The major costs and all administration of such projects were derived to Ukraine. Because of the water channel from Dnipro river it was possible finally to develop agriculture and others economical activities in the big part of Crimea and develope economy and assure population growth (mostly russians, by the way) to higher levels. Without 85% of water supply and 80% of electricity supply from Ukraine Crimea resulted to be overpopulated and eats a big chunk of russian budget every year.
@Tin Watchman Actually, is difficult, cause the channel derived from Kahovka reservoir and it's impossible to cut if off if you don't have the control on the south side of Dnipro river. May be the only way is to stop hidroelectrical plant and let the water pass through to lower the level of the water in Kahovka reservoir. But you know... I think the sanctions war on Putin's Russia will last in this case until Ukraine is liberated. In this case "one of the major objective" of Russia to control water supply to Crimea could be the pirrhic achievement.
@Tin Watchman War is not instant CZcams gratification and this one is little older than month, little baby already turned sinister monster. Bloody affair.
Did Donbass industry more than compensated for that ? Why you left Donbass out of context ?
@Tin Watchman They can hardly achieve that, since almost whole Ukraine is the enemy territory for them. They repeated mistakes of Hitler again.
Kind of tells you what the Ukrainian government thinks of the civilian population in Crimea who were once Ukrainian themselves.
About that helicopter attack. The Ukrainian government said it could neither confirm nor deny it was a Ukrainian attack, adding that the Russians should know it could happen anywhere in Russia
Russia confirmed it was 2 Ukrainian helicopters, they then targeted Zelenskys puppet Masters oil refinery destroying it, it was supplying the Ukrainian military.
@@Man_v_Cars so where was russkie air defense ? Drunk or slept on the job?
@@romailto9299 reports stated they flew below 100ft to the target, I doubt they expected Ukraine to attack inside the Russian border, not far in but still inside.
The 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings which are suspected of being a false flag operation killed over 300 Russian civilians. So Putin is more than happy to do false flag operations where people die.
I still think is "false flag". Let tanks burn and say, they was full of oil, who can prove that they was half full and the other half? You guess, it is Russia
You do a Job than the news does keep it up mate
2:14
My favourite term that I've heard for this is 'Retrograde Advance'.
"I don't know, this ruse might not be convincing enough."
"What if we leave thousands of our own dead behind and let hundreds be captured?"
"Perfect!"
As always, great to hear your analysis. Lets hope the war goes as badly in the east as it has in the west!
i'm sorry about Crimea: all the wildlife and biodiversity destroyed forever, probably some unique species gone forever...
Fight alongside the Ukrainian International Legion, Cappy! Continue the family legacy, aye!
Thank you so much for putting your time and effort into these videos. It's very well thought out and organized, all while also providing top notch commentary. For whatever reason it kinda seems like you might be having a hard or stressful time, maybe you're just tired. Just know that there are thousands of people that appreciate the work you do, and you should really give yourself more credit/the confidence to step up on that soapbox a little more.
For example in this video, starting around 16:00 when you gave some great perspective on wars over natural resources and other reasons that may seem arbitrary on paper. Around 16:13, and more so around 16:20 when you kinda seemed pissed off in that take, but it really helps bring out the importance of what you're saying.
This is video and channel is now official Ukrainian propaganda. Do please explain to me, at what point 20 000 - 40 000 troops were ever enough to take the city the size of Kiev that had way more defenders than there were attackers? What you are showing is small scale Ukrainian "wins" on tactical level, but you completely ignore the thousands of surrendered and thousands of bodies of Ukrainian soldiers in Eastern Ukraine and completely ignore all the similar and much larger scale Russian wins. Oh and all the imagery of the Russian tanks with the said "cages" is old stock footage from 2020 or 2021. I have yet to see any actually used in the conflict.
is this "peer review" or self-review?
@@user-dp4ok9ox5w I will take a shot at this. The invasion was greatly influenced by notion that there will be no resistance. The Russians really truly expected a repeat of Crimea in 2014, and that upon seeing hundreds of mechanized battalions and troops, and give an ongoing internal strife in the Ukrainian politics, and a growing lack of political support around Zelensky from more hawkish right wingers at that time, Ukraininas will let them get to Kiev unopposed . They expected to just drive thru and parade thru the Maidan Sq by march 1st.
That is also why they just sent in thousands of conscripts with no experience, and no intention to face real combat.
In order to do otherwise - to start mobilization and pull in reservists , Putin would needed to declare a "war", not some "special military operation". That i know by seeing russina-language meetings recorded of various city councils. That is why initial days did not start with major indiscriminate bombing and atrocities. However, gross miscalculation ( in intelligence, and just in overall Hubris of VVP) brought that plan to a halt.
Any other thinking along lines that Kiev axis was just a "distraction" is ridiculous. You then basically say that they threw all those 20,000 - 40,000 troops in as cannon fodder? Oh, btw , there were much more than that on the Kiev axis.
@@11arkasha11 No, i do not think Russians were not expecting "no resistance". I think that MIGHT have been part of their plan "maximum", but the general plan expected this level of resistance and the plan "minimum" expected probably way more resistance. I have no doubt that near Kiev they expected maximum resistance. The place where they probably expected less resistance or at very least expected Ukraine allowing the civilians to leave via humanitarian corridors, was Mariupol.
No, there was not much more than about 30K light troops near Kiev. They did not have enough forces even to take the cities before Kiev, let alone Kiev. The whole group in TOTAL of the Russians forces participating is just 150K of which 25% remained in reserve (+ 50K Donbas militia). Ukraine had 260K troops in their army even before the start of the operation, but with the start of the operation they got all the volunteers, mobilized men and mercenaries on TOP of that 260K. Not to mention that what further proves my point correct that the Russians did not even secure their rear properly and left the major cities in their path with open humanitarian corridors (that were used by Ukrainian army too).
It was not only feint but it also allowed for the Russian army to destroy the military equipment of Ukraine that was concentrated in Kiev and its surroundings, in addition that it prevented the Ukrainians from properly reinforcing not only Donbas, but also other directions like Kharkov. Clearly Ukrainians were only able to reinforce Kiev and Kharkov (or 2 out of the 4 ) directions of attack that the Russians created with such a relatively low amount of troops. Oh and when it comes to Kherson, the Russians were able to take it with very little fighting and intact. So, if where the Russians would had expected resistance is CERTAINLY in Kiev, but places like Kherson with much larger pro-Russian sentiment (and without presence of radicals such a Azov), fell quite easily. Last thing that points to their disinterest in actually entering Kiev was the almost total lack of any serious bombing of Kiev (beyond few precisions missile strikes on the outskirts). I would add that clearly that the Russian MAIN advance with the largest force was in the South and East, where they did succeed quite well (especially in the South).
Hell, even the Western journos and many Ukrainian politicians did not feel threatened while they were in Kiev. The spectacle of the "40 mile column" did exactly its job, it created uncertainty and drew the attention of all the media and drawing Ukrainian drones to it like moth to a flame (drones that were easily shot down in first two weeks). TOTAL Russian casualties some days before they drew out of Kiev were 1350 dead and 3500 wounded (excluding DPR and LPR), so they did not "sacrifice" some massive numbers as claimed.
@@user-dp4ok9ox5w i could not agree with you less. Especially when you start quoting "humanitarian corridors", and quoting casualty numbers that are straight out of Russian talking points, which are plain ridiculous at face value, and are just plain lies due to the source. Yes, i cannot believe anything that comes out from that source. 98% lies. I am not going to say that everything from Western source is all truth, but at least it is somewhat verifiable and can be cross referenced and checked, so i'd say about 40% lies
In any case, whatever you believe and present as your case, will play itself out in next few weeks. The repeat of Battle of Kursk is looming almos 80 years after the original, except it is the Russians are in the role of German army, and Ukrainian forces are defending their land.
Also, Russians are apparently still fighting with outdated technology and strategies. While Ukrainians have been equipped with much more modern weapons, so even though they lack the massive armor, they will be conducting more drone-driven combat.
Regardless of what the outcome of the Battle of Donbass will be Russia has lost in long term. They will have Ukrainian resistance to contend with for years (if you disagree, you don't understand Ukrainians), and European sanctions while Putin is in power. CHina will take over most of Siberia, and "the stans" will go to the Taliban.
All this is IMO, of course.
There's a book on my shelf I've yet to read (eyes aren't up to the task) called Salt. It covers all the wars that were actually about salt, which was one of those core economic resources everyone depended upon.
Water? That one possibly might be in our future, unfortunately, if we play our cards wrong :(
Is that why they made Triangle Strategy?
Excellent book
“Random circle” got you a subscription lol.
8:20 "Can we all just appreciate that the worst Nicholas Cage movies are actually his best movies."
mom im not not doing my homework,
I'm taking a tactical break
Good job man keep up the good work!
I’m surprised that they drive those tanks so fast in town.