Why We May Be Surrounded by Older Alien Civilizations
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- čas přidán 2. 05. 2024
- Are alien civilizations likely to be younger or older than us in age? A basic question that seems insurmountable until we start detecting them. But even before that, we can use some logical deduction using lifetime distribution statistics to determine the most plausible answer to this question. Join us today for an explanation of our new research paper on this topic.
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Video on planet cloaking: • A Cloaking Device for ...
::References used::
► Kipping, Frank & Scharf, 2020, "Contact Inequality -- First Contact Will Likely Be With An Older Civilization", International Journal of Astrobiology: arxiv.org/abs/2010.12358
► Benton, M. J., 1993, “The Fossil Record”, Vol 2 (Chapman & Hall, London, 1993)
► Civilization lifetimes figure from BBC Future/Nigel Hawtin:
www.bbc.com/future/article/20...
► Olson et al., 2014, "Survival Probabilities of Adult Mongolian Gazelles", Journal of Wildlife Management, 78, 1: wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley....
► Battery lifetime figure from BatteryUniversity.com:
batteryuniversity.com/learn/a...
::Movies clips used::
► Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World (2003) 20th Century Fox
► Noah (2014) Paramount Pictures
► Avatar (2009) 20th Century Fox
► Contact (1997) Warnos Bros. Pictures
► GI Joe Retaliation (2013) Paramount Pictures
► Terminator 3 (2003) Warners Bros. Pictures
► The House (2017) Warners Bros. Pictures
► X2 (2003) 20th Century Fox
► The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) Sony Pictures Releasing
► Into The Wild (2007) Paramount Vantage
► 300 (2006) Warner Bros. Pictures
► Cleopatra (1963) 20th Century Fox
► Gladiator (2000) Dreamworks Pictures
::TV clips used::
► Andrew Marr's History of the World - BBC
► Star Trek the Next Generation - Paramount Television
::Other video footage used::
► See bit.ly/34MwkyX
::Music::
Music used is licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], or via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (creativecommons.org/licenses/..., or with permission from the artist.
► "Shade Upon Thy Right Hand" by Hill, used with permission from the artist: hillmusic.bandcamp.com/album/...
► "Fable" by Stephen Keech licensed via SS
► "Cylinder Five" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/
► "Painted Deserts" by Shimmer licensed via SS
► "It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn" by Hill licensed via SS
► "Cylinder Four" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/
► "We Were Never Meant to Live Here" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.com/neptuneflux/
► "Fragmented" by Hill, used with permission from the artist: hillmusic.bandcamp.com/album/...
► "Stories About the World That Once Was" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/
► "Waking Up" by Atlas licensed via SS
► "Ticking" by Alternative Endings licensed via SS
► "Trace Correction" by Indive licensed under a CC Attribution license: indive.bandcamp.com
0:00 Prologue
1:22 Technological Lockstep
6:57 Distribution of Civilization Lifetimes
19:17 Bayes vs The Cosmos
23:39 Temporal Bias
32:20 Credits
#CivilizationLongevity #AncientAliens #CoolWorlds - Věda a technologie
Very common question I’m seeing here, and indeed honestly a very common question students have in my classes about statistics, is what if one of the oldest civilizations applied this reasoning - wouldn’t they get a totally different and wrong answer? Yes they would, but that’s how statistics works! Not everyone is guaranteed to be right every time. The oldest civilizations in this scenario would be the rarest and thus although they would arrive at the wrong answer, the majority of the sample would arrive at the correct answer. Think of it like this - if you state there’s a 90% chance of an event occurring, you will predict the wrong answer 10% of the time. That’s not a failure of statistics, it’s intrinsic to how it works as everything has uncertainty. All we can do in statistics is make *probabilistic* statements e.g. this is the most likely outcome, or this happens 90% of the time. Challenging to explain this in a single comment, it takes students a long time to grasp this concept usually but I hope that helps!
Intriguing and valuable data, sir. However, considering that I, and many others, have personally observed the levitating crafts of extraterrestrial civilizations here on Earth, one might suggest that it is not necessary to seek them out at this juncture, for they are here. Instead, I think that we should focus on elevating our civilization's practices, proving ourselves worthy of contact and communication.
However, these much older civilisations would not use the stats/info we do, but have much better maths and tech to inform their analysis.
Isn't it more convenient to use the age (stone, bronze, iron) in relation to civilizations? Are we currently in American, Chinese, or perhaps Russian civilization now, or in, say, the information age preceded by the industrial age? I believe that the duration of human life is more related to, for example, the Iron Age than Roman or Ottoman civilization?
I love this channel.. Seriously it's been one of the most thought provoking and inspirational channels I've come across. On top of that, being in lock down I've found this channel so therapeutic- it's a little easier staying positive about the world whenever I see you guys have uploaded a new video. They always reminding me to focus on the big picture.. to remain hopeful, and stay curious.
I am wondering how this thesis accounts for a couple of points: 1. it assumes a constant "rate of threat" which leads to an exponential distribution, and this is almost certainly false. You can make arguments that as a civilization ages, it both creates ways to survive better as well as new threats (similar in animal kingdom to being more likely to live to old age once you survive childhood). 2. I do not see how this proposed model accounts for lifetime of a civilization that spreads beyond its original planet, with each colony facing its own threats and being described by a different exponential. To me the lifetime of the civilization is a blend of whatever distributions the colonies have. This point is probably a case of my first point, the civilization increases its chances of survival through colonies (if rate of colonization is much greater than its lifetime), but decreases them due to potential conflict with colonies.
Since I was a kid, I've found astronomy and the possibility of life outside of our solar system to be fascinating. From an auto mechanic in southern Indiana, I thank you for your content. I am making my way through your library, and just cannot get enough, it keeps my dreams of the stars alive.
Love your name and I can relate lol 😂 let’s go Brandon!!!!
@@NewsThatMatterUsa Am with you both...roll on 2024
I'm surprised Trump cultists can comprehend the existence of a planet beyond one where a game show host conned 70 million people into supporting him and believing his lies no matter what.
Excellent choice! Everyone needs a car and that rock salt will eat right through those vehicles!
I left that ice and snow for Florida!
You have no clue how fast these cars down here!
love your comment
He said, “grab a cup of tea” so I paused the video and did just that! This channel is vital for great ideas.
I grabbed a beer😉
I had already prepared a cup of tea before I started watching this video . When he said that, I just smirked to myself .
It's always fun to watch his videos when I am calm and cozy .
Youngimperialist Mk II I grabbed 2 after you lol.
@Adam Battersby And I immediately thought of Isaac Arthur's advice to "grab a drink and a snack" for his videos.
Thanks for the heads up now I can make some in advance before the video starts
The "Dark Forest" theory could be a reason we haven't heard from anyone...Maybe everyone stays quite because they fear the other "hunters in the forest"...It's safe to say in order to become the dominate species on a planet one would have to be a super predator like us. I'm not saying aliens will be the war mongering invaders we see in movies, but they might also not be like the trope of the highly evolved above using violence type either. They may be just like us, an interesting mix of beautiful dreams and horrible nightmares.
@@chandler2I hope you’re right, though with the sheer number of conspiracy theorists that exist, they would find a reason to disbelieve it.
I find the dark forest Analogie kind of weird, because it likens it to the beginning of our civilization, and we obviously overcame this phase, and not just once, but all over the world.
Do not answer! Do not answer!! Do not answer!!!
@@chandler2 I’d hope you’d be right, but if the alien species didn’t see us as equals it could go very badly. How guilty do you feel wiping out an anthill? We could just be insects to them.
I’m a Liu Cixin fan as well. I believe he coined the term.
Among all the crappy channels, you stand out as something very different. no ufos , and ancient alien
nonsense. Thank you for intelligent content
So a channel that doesn't challenge your world view. Wow, amazing.
lol I get what you mean but aliens have been here wanted or not
@@rdaws73 "challenging your worldview" is generally code for conspiracy theorist nonsense masquerading as science
@@diegotravieso8947 Few and far between. I do like The Why Files too. That channel is a good listen for interesting stories.
Surprisingly unintelligent responses here. Just accept that there is no concrete evidence of aliens. Yet. All else is speculation at the moment.
Aliens probably lock their doors when they fly near Earth.
They make sure the kids are looking out the windows, though, so they can witness all the plight we Earthlings have down here.
one of my alien friends visiting Earth telepathically in my head wanted me to reply to your comment w a "LOL". So here's its response ...."LOL".
We would indeed be the neighbours from hell. Join us as do our little bit using our music and messages to shine some light in these challenging times. TOGETHER WE ARE STRONGER.
Indeed, or strengthen their forcefields. I'd have to guess that most stay far away as we seek to avoid bad neighborhoods.
Yeah we’re not exactly a friendly bunch. Superpowers tend to shoot first and ask questions later.. sigh smh. Look up Sentinel Island... that’s basically us in a nutshell.
Legend has it he's still out there liking comments.
A bit of an odd consequence of this approach, is that the older we get, the older we should assume other civilizations should be on average. I guess that makes sense, since if we are observing our own civilization survive for longer and longer periods, it would be the safest bet (but of course, only a bet) to guess that other civilizations would be tend to survive for that kind of timespan. Here's hoping for a long-lived humanity, so other aliens out there can enjoy similarly long lives!
I'm working my way through your library. This was amazing, and has started conversations with people around me that have not even considered these questions. Thank you for your time and effort.
"Hunter-gatherer society floating a message to us down the river on a piece of wood" Isn't that similar to what we attemped to do with the Voyager probe?
Assume the bottle was found then short after we would a. ("look things up in old data") check Sattellite images b.) start a silent, high flying plane to map their village (aka collect more data) with a lidar through the forest leaves and have a study on them.... but c.) others would jump on the next speed boat and go and "visit" them to become famous (aka direct ruthless encounter).
These three possible actions highlight the important problem of -for a civilisation- acting as one! Assume this was not and still is not the case on earth.
Therefore it is crutial to the whole meet and greet thing ... asume as well for aliens and almost for sure for us!
Exactly we see ourselves as the advanced species looking for a primitive species when we could be the primitive species ourselves
To be fair, from what I read the Voyager Messag was meant to be more symbolic than anything. They didn't really expect that someone would find it
@@DogKacique pretty much the same as that primitive tribe floating a message down the river....
Any aliens who find Voyager will discover that we basically sent them nudes and directions to our 'house'
Narrator : Sit back, have A cup of tea with me.
Me : LETS DO THIS... *While having a beer & smoking a joint*
Thats my man, i like That 😂♥️
Giant resin ball and a whiskey.
Relaxing after work 🌿🍺
Shatter & scotch.
Full Moon Fever and a Corona😂Yeah,Been Drinking Longer Than The Virus Has Been Around
This channel is amazing. I randomly found this channel one day ago and I am hooked. Your ability to merge the technical aspect of science with the romance and beauty of the universe. Well done!
I've just found your channel and watched 4 videos in a row. Thought provoking, informative, non-judgemental ... by any standard, you have a winner. And a new subscriber. Thanks for sharing your knowledge, keen insight and interesting presentations.
I know that Cool Worlds would rather be studying a catalog of discovered exo-moons, but the time being put into this channel is a great gift to all of us viewers. Thanks for the awesome content.
Haha well we enjoy both research and communicating science, so these videos are a joy to make for us too
@@CoolWorldsLab never
@@CoolWorldsLab gonna
@@CoolWorldsLab give
@@CoolWorldsLab you
Absolutely loved hearing Carl Sagan's voice again. As a young boy, he sparked a true love of astronomy, and the philosophical pondering of many deep ideas. Hearing his voice again, really brings me back in time....
@@ChineduOpara Agreed! Something about his voice and presentation, really allows people to feel the same childlike wonder that I believe Carl Sagan felt his whole life. This channel, and professor Kipping's voice, also convey the same intelligence and intense love of learning, and always wanting to know more.
@Julian Watson Ha! I can definitely see your point. Still love the memories of watching Cosmos and entering a whole new world that I never knew before as a kid though.
Did you also have sexual desires for Mr Sagan ?
@@johnfyten3392 okay thank you for clarifying, I was just concerned.
@Julian Watson.....Wtf is a boomer-centric cosmos?...can't wait to hear this one!!
This content is truly amazing. Having a professor/researcher making videos explaining the incredible complexities of our universe is truly astounding. Whenever he speaks, it's like a cascade of knowledge so well-worded and passionately delivered which is admirably poetic.
Honestly, this is an honor. I'm quite passionate for astronomy and this is incredible to me. Probably the greatest channel on CZcams.
OUR universe??
🌝🐣👬👨🏻🦯🤦🏻♂️
@@Laurencemardon yes, the Universe we currently reside in, it is reasonable to call it "ours" since it's our home.
Im just an infantryman in the Army on deployment. On my off time i like to watch these videos. However I have to force focus on every word he says because it hurts my grunt brain lmao
Im sjust an infantryman in the Army on deployment. On my off time i like to watch these videos. However I have to force focus on every word he says because it hurts my grunt brain lmao
worth mentioning regarding the lifetime of civilizations on Earth: the end of a civilization didn't always mean the death of a group of people; sometimes it just meant the same group of people scattered or were under new management. Maybe the data ought to be revised to account for actual extinctions of groups of people
The effect of time causing older civilizations to be more common could be even more extreme when you phrase the question specifically as "which type of civilization are we most likely to find" because older civilizations also are most likely to have spread out among the stars to multiple planets and star systems. Obviously, if they have more territory, we're more likely to run across them (or vice-versa).
I agree. We have barely turned the first page on the history of the universe. The great barrier is not space, but time.
@@EdricLysharae Not time. But; WILL.
@@Le-rh1fi, can't argue with that. It takes courage and resolve to leave the cradle.
@@EdricLysharae Right On Brother and you also @jmmahony.
The most obvious reason we haven’t contacted another civilization should be obvious - the universe is unimaginably large, and our understanding of physics only allows us to reach a fraction of a fraction of our cosmic neighbors let alone the Milky Way let alone the rest of the universe
Then why haven’t they contacted us? I would say that the most obvious reason is time. It is likely that we aren’t alone but it is unlikely that we will find aliens in the same time as we exist with the same technological progress we have so we are able to communicate. Classical Fermi paradox talk here.
I think they are here. Remember we are only just down from the trees we aren't very advanced we might think we are but it wasn't long ago we invented flight let alone interstellar travel. It's like "Here sit down Alien have a beer and watch the game" and he goes "Is that what you call entertainment right hold said beer we are going for a ride".
Or maybe because only 10% of the population of the world is involved. Imagine humans clean up there acts, educate the world, and see how far humans can rise
Meanwhile that is not even the title of this video ( we haven’t contacted another civilization ) .. we are surrounded by an alien civilization is the title, and the thumb-nail shows Easter Island .. so when are we getting on topic ?? hmmmmmm
@@QueenlySweetpea - I mean if your intention is to be painfully literal... but I think the purpose of the video is to stoke imagination; so imagine we haven’t contacted aliens because the universe is big and our technological development relative to the age of the universe is unbelievably minuscule. And if your intention is to be so blandly literal you can’t appreciate the argument I raise based on what was said during the video, I want nothing to do with your kind 🤷🏼♂️🤷🏼♂️
This is extremely smart content that you’ve put into easy to understand terms. You have a talent for explaining this stuff. That’s a good sign that you really know what you are talking about. Thanks for making these videos!
There is also another variable to consider with the longer-lived civilizations. If they lived long enough to create the technology to transcend the planetary boundaries and spread to other planets, then they would no longer be susceptible to the vagaries of a planetary catastrophe. Thus, the longer a civilization exists, the more it has the potential to continue existing after that point. That would mean that some of the red dots would never fade out and push the probability of a civilization being older even higher..
What a refreshing documentary on this subject!
I love the pace and how these ideas are presented. I am staying home and binge watching them all:)
All we can do is extrapolate. Time will tell, hopefully.
Awesome doc
Hey I watch your videos
Indeed.
Searching for alien civilizations via radio is like a drunk looking for his keys under the streetlamp. It's where we can see.
Looolz..
... or the keys are obscured by our drunken shadow
I have to laugh because of a recent post of Facebook. There was a sign on a highway that said, "beware of crossing deer", very common in the northeast. One reader was very angry about this. She posted, "This really pisses me off. Are these people crazy? Why don't they just move that sign down the road where there is less traffic." Tell us why there are so many Socialists in the world. They're just dumb!
If you eyes are working, then you also saw some unnatural elements here .
Assuming all intelligent species communicate by mental telepathy, we are in the dark to them and them to us. The streetlamp simply isn't even in the same town.
Just an aside...
I find these videos refreshing, enlightening, at times beautiful. Obviously thought provoking.
Appreciate you Cool Worlds
We may sit in the middle of a graveyard of incomprehensible scale, the only intelligent beings alive at this time. There may have been thousands of intelligent civilizations before us, and billions to follow, but in the vastness of time, each makes its journey from cradle to grave in complete isolation.
I’ve been following this channel for about a year and this dude are so underrated. You should have millions of subscribers. Share people.
Indeed.. This channel is mind blowing..
Production value is right up there with the best PBS/BBC doc's
This dude "IS" so underrated.
....Not "ARE" !!!!!🙄
English might be a second or third language them or they could be very tired. Either way it’s a CZcams comet
@Jesse Dover "everything is vibration" Einstein...why would proper English be in the equation?
This is what my math teacher expects me to do when she says find x.
Me and My maths Teacher had sex twice
@@lucyluck9564 your teacher and I need to introduction.
@@AksamRafiz he's a man 👨 👏
@@lucyluck9564 oh no
Found it.... its right between W and Y
Every time I find a quirk in your analysis, your next words acknowledge it and you provide an explanation to support the reasoning. Absolutely the best analysis on the subject I’ve had the pleasure to view. The next analysis should focus on proximity to those civilizations based on the galactic distribution of sun-like stars in our galactic neighbourhood. JWST will provide a minimum value and we can extrapolate based on volumetric or at the very least rule out minimum distances based on our discoveries.
If any aliens are intelligent enough to detect or reach us, they're also intelligent enough to NOT visit us due to the risk of contamination.
It took a little long to get there, but I’m so glad to finally see a temporal view to other civilizations. I’ve always thought the question of IF there is intelligent life was the wrong question. We should be asking WHEN is the intelligent life, and what is the chance any life could survive long enough to be able to find another life form or be found.
It's bad science to skip the initial question on life. It's far from settled.
Also that, if life does exist, is it so rare that it - probability wise - occurs once in a galaxy? Once in a local group? Ones in a super cluster?
Good thought
@@rustusandroidI think that the only way to look for life is to start with the assumption that it may be rare but no matter how rare it may be the practically infinite universe makes it almost a certainty. Using the temporal view helps us also see how it’s nearly impossible to ever even find an answer to this question even if it is “common”, it’s practically and nearly statistically impossible to ever interact with another intelligent life form.
@@danielwarren8850 There are 10 to the 95th atom particles in the ENTIRE universe. The different that ways carbon molucules can form is 10 to the 95 BILLIONTH... Only ONE way can support life. THis is an unlikely statistic by chance, and it is ony ONE statistic out of thousands that are similarily unlikely.... So NO, I think you have no idea what you really think you know.
Excellent work. My mind is firing on overdrive with new ideas and thoughts related to this. Thank you for the video and please keep up the good work. I will do my best to support for future work.
At first I thought that you are one of those people that like to hear themselves speak. But then I actually watched your videos about aliens. I think you are inspiring a lot of people , like me, that look up and wonder “how the hell are we alone?”. Thank you sir.
I think the concept of a Prime Directive (in some form) makes sense for an older civilization to take. The idea of non-interference seems inevitable to me, not because I fantasize about them being morally anthropomorphic, but because the act of not making contact creates less risk potential for drama, war, manipulation, boringness etc... If 'they' are likely to be far more advanced, then their indifference to us and their disinterest in us is somewhat expected. We may even be able to see their worlds, and happen upon some of their ships up close and still be 'cold shouldered' and never communicated with. They might not care unless we were interfering with their interests.
I once jotted down an idea for a sci fi story plot. The idea was that a genuinely alien species came from a near-by star say 10-15 lightyears away. This star-faring species was very much hominid looking in appearance, in that they were bipedal, breathed the same gases and tolerated similar gravity/air pressure. They also made audible sounds to communicate, basically a pretty anthropomorphic species. They came to our system and basically started loitering around our moon and even taking up space on two continents in remote areas albeit in small numbers and lightweight ships. Their weapons were not catastrophic but they were continuously being violent. Our attempts to communicate with them and to understand them kept meeting with massacres and human leaders were trying to figure out what to do, considering that the alien's technology was several millennia ahead of humanity and the aliens were showing no signs of wanting to share tech, trade, or even study us.
Out of nowhere, a ton more of them show up and begin obliterating satellites, 1st world air bases/missile installations and also killing the inhabitants of a few small South American cities/villages with toxic gas in an effort to annex that geography for themselves.
But this is where it gets interesting. Another alien species, completely non-anthropomorphic in appearance and supremely more advanced than both humans and those invaders from Tau Ceti, comes in from Titan (moon of Saturn) and they start whipping the invading aliens butts. The non-anthropomorphic aliens are terrifying in appearance but are protecting humanity. They stand about 9-12 feet tall and are bipedal but they certainly arent anything like a mammal. Their heads resemble an eagle because they have dark beady eyes that dart around and a large ominous beak. They dont speak or make noise beyond the sounds of their devices and tech-suits. They have feather-like skin but mostly theyre covered by the bioengineered suits they wear. Normally you cant make out their face/head because they not only wear helmets but they all have personalized force-fields around them. Later it is found that the force field which distorts light, also disrupts spacetime. The field around their person dilates gravity/time among other things like noble gases, airpressure and temperature. The field enables them to move abruptly and even disappear. Its apparent they like it COLD and must be quite comfortable in conditions that are absolutely inhospitable to humans, "deep cold well below the line" as Ash would say.
These Bird Aliens as I call them, wipe out the invading aliens completely. They literally smoke every last one of them in a matter of days. But not only that, they commandeer ALL the invaders' Gen Ships/space vessels/shuttle craft and hand them over to humans as an obvious leg up. We're talking about 6 LARGE Gen ships in orbit, 3 dozen mid-size starships capable of planetary re-entry and a few hundred smaller craft including some land assault vehicles. All the invaders are deceased and all their tech essentially gift wrapped for human reverse engineering. Towards the end, the super Bird Aliens leave as fast as they arrived. Except a dozen of them on one of their ships stays for a few months in northern Russia. The world's best scientists and xeno biologists make slight progress in trying to communicate with the _Berds_ but ultimately not much can be learned because they are so far evolved and superior. The Berds' own offerings, presentations and gestures dont make much sense to us. It is learned though, that they dwell on Titan but are not native to this system although theyve been in the Sol system since well before homo Ergaster roamed Earth 3 million years ago. They presented a crud diagram of Earth when the continents were shifted in the past. We deduced some of their symbols to be an Earth Calendar but the days were off compared to our modern timekeeping.
It became evident that they had intervened once (perhaps more) in human affairs following the eruption of a volcano 80,000 years prior on the island of Sumatra. (TOBA ERUPTION). Although its not exactly known from the data we translated, its looks like the Berds relocated some surviving humans during that ancient crisis. Its not known whether they uplifted our genetics at any point but arguments on the topic never seem to end. And then like that, they were gone. The closing of the book reveals an astronomer reviewing James Webb Telescope data, watching a large Berd fleet appearing to leave Titan headed further out towards Neptune but we lost sight of them. No one saw any flashes or evidence of spacetime disruption (as if a wormhole or some fanciful FTL tech was being used) ... they just disappeared. Many Nations are now conglomerating on a mission to explore Titan.
So what I got from this is that there is a observation post on or near titan?
I want to read this book
Please make it
Wow! That has to be the longest CZcams post I've never read. 🤔
Mate, that sounds really cool. Try and write it, I'd be interested
One problem they find out we eat birds and they wipe us all out...
This was very pleasant to watch. The narrator's voice is nice. Good job on the production overall. I subscribed
Eheh the Narrator is professor David Kipping. University of London, Cambridge, Harvard... he's a current professor at Columbia University, where he runs the Cool World Lab. So he's not just a narrator. And yes his voice is incredible!
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam soundd really good until you hear Sagan talk :)
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam I have the hobby to recommend sci-youtuber to science-fans.
I'm often called random or even robot for that, but whatever. I keep going for those few
that say 'Yes thanks'.
@@b4zs1 pale blue dot is arguably the best speech ever conceived by humanity. And also yes!! His voice is amazing too!
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam sounds similar to Prof Brian Cox!
I don’t comment much on CZcams but I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate your videos and how much I love your channel. Thank you!
One of the coolest channels I've seen in quite a while, I love the format of your videos.
"You get the idea...you lived through 2020" lmao
@Odinson Warrior if 2021 isn't worse lol
Mark my words; 2020 is not over yet.
2020 is a speeding car on the sidewalk driven by a drunk driver and we arent out of gas yet.
@The Rain Bow.....don't need no stinking bonus!
I feel so called out right now lol
I could fall asleep 😴 listening to this man. Not because he is boring because he is very good at presenting vivid imagery through his explanations. Plus his voice is soothing .
This is the best thing I've seen on CZcams in a very long time. I have a question though... Do you also have to consider the amount of time it takes for light to travel from other civilisations? For example, if we could see all of the older civilisations in our galaxy and beyond, we'd be looking at a snap shot of the past. Therefore, by the time we'd obversed the civilisation, it would either be older or it might have died out.
Interesting 🤔
I just love this video, its one of the few vids on CZcams that I go back to again and again, probably watched it 6-7 times already...
One assumption made in this discussion seems to be that technological advancement of civilizations depends on the age of the civilization. I realize that this point doesn’t invalidate the math in this, but I feel like it does play a part in how we envision older/younger civilizations and it certainly would affect our ability to detect them.
It’s possible that some intelligent species develop on planets that don’t have the resources (fossil fuels) to become an industrial civilization or to develop the technology to destroy themselves. We could be surrounded by low-tech/no-tech civilizations that are similar to pre-industrial human civilizations but are much, much older than us. This is one of my preferred solutions to the Fermi paradox. We seem to assume that fossil fuels are abundant in the galaxy, but their availability depends on certain conditions occurring and the timing of those events being just right.
We even have a data point that backs this hypothesis: human civilisation basically started thousands of years ago, yet the industrial revolution started only 200 years ago and not even globally. Even on our own planet industrialisation was a historical fluke resulting from very specific circumstances and neither an obvious nor logical consequence of our development.
@@totalermist Which means that civilisations like us who can become a space farming species could be extremely rare.
One of the branches of this hypothesis is that most cases of intelligence emergency could happen in places like moons with subsurface oceans of liquid water as Europa and Enceladus, then we could have plenty of civilizations that rarely discover fire and rarely develop high tecnology and they could be trapped inside those moons without even knowing of the universe outside.
Another case is that civilizations could emerge in planets like superearths where the gravity is higher than earth's, and that would get costs of sending satelites and individuals to space higher or even not viable. How would that impact the development of high technology?
In both scenarios we could have plenty of older civilizations with less technology than us.
Let me add the old adage 'necessity is the mother of invention'. A general systems collapse (societal collapse) occurs partly when established resources run out, leading to advancements in technology. A civilization on a planet with abundant resources which are easily gathered, distributed and consumed by the population is not going to advance as quickly because there is no perceived need to do so.
@@newdefsys Excellent point.
I would simply like to say thank you for taking the time to make such fascinating and entertaining videos. Wonderful stuff!
Very, very intersting indeed, as I've become accustomed to from this wonderful channel. Mixing this with another fundamental question of today: listening to the worries from many specialists in the field, there should be a good chance that many of the older civilizations around are thoroughly dominated/controled by AI. Or are even nothing but AI anymore. Now since we only have theories about how a civilization like that would look and operate, I suppose we can't predict very much about its lifetime. But it's very interesting to think about it.
I have just discovered this CZcams page. The probabilities for that were great to begin with due to my interest in astrophysics. Still, I love it and will watch all the videos when I can. Thank you for this.
Love the editing of this one! Thanks for the inspiring content you give us so often. Your channel is one of my favorites.
Wow! Where have you been all my CZcams life lol?! Only found your channel today and so glad I did! All the videos are beautifully presented and very clearly and easily explained so a big thanks from me 😊😊
@@jg1174 John I was just going to say that, well said...
I feel Chaos theory is the missing link for the Theory of everything, funny how you look deep into chaos theory and you start to notice that randomness and all the chaos seems with enough time to become fluid and logical. Would love to see a video with those thoughts. keep up the good work!
This man, has one of the most layered and probing minds, of my life time. An incredible orator.
He said grab a cup of tea, "Explains the powerful truth behind Temporal Bias" one bottle of spirit later & a DMT trip and it turns out that i was already watching this 100 years ago...
Turns out you've been watching it for eternity.
@@zZrEtRiBuTiOnZz spot on. you follow actualized.org?
@@dradexx Nah, idk what that is.
@@dradexx nah, but that first one. Guided exercise for realizing you're God. 😉
@@nikmacfarlane6117 the answers to the universe in one podcast
I'm happy that you acknowledged the Indus Valley civilization, almost everybody seems to overlook it!
Good ole Eurocentricism for ya
This channel is brain food. I've always sucked at and been intimidated by mathematics but here I get the "gist" of what is discussed. This channel is one of my favourites, thanks.
When Rishi said "you were right I was wrong" is the understatement of the century
Love your calming vibe as you present mind boggling themes and concepts.
I just subscribed to the channel - you make astronomy really palatable for curious minds! Thank you and keep up the good work!
Being someone very interested in sound,
there is a documentary here on youtube asking the question:
"how would we recognize an alien signal?"
A "dolphin scientist" had experiments saying there are patterns of most to least used sound in every language on Earth.
He tested to see if the pattern appeared in dolphin sounds:
it did.
maybe could work for alien transmissions.
Doesn't show you what they are saying, only that it really is a language.
I quote the simple phrase of yours which marked me years ago and made me love your channel: "We simply don't know".
Can we just take a moment and appreciate how he can put amazing background music. I love your voice your channel all the way from Ethiopia.
This is one of the best channels I've found on CZcams. He takes his time, and produces beautifully produced videos.
Yes, it is such high quality work.
@@availanila I don't know if you've heard of the channel, but if you're interested in astronomy, search Parallax Nick on CZcams sometime. He has a more amateur, yet still very well done channel about astronomy with far too few subscribers for the content he provides.
@@johnfyten3392 I love space stuff. Thank you for your recommendation to this beautiful channel. I already subscribed.
@@LIGHTandPEACE That's great! I never had a chance to go to college, as I had a family of my own to support, while very young and broke, lol, but it's great to learn about astronomy and the universe nonetheless. It gives me a chance to get away from the stress of life when I listen to this at night whenever possible.
“You get the point, you’ve lived through 2020.”
I like this guy, a lot. He’s sharp, and keeps my interest. Subscribed!
Just discovered your channel and really enjoying your topics!
Thank you VERY much for producing this video. This was prime, I really love when I leave CZcams smarter!
Ok I’m sorry but the people grinding wheat in the beginning. Grinding the whole tassel?! That’s not how you process wheat!
Ok mini rant over, probably not your fault, proceed. 😆
Awesome to see you here Cody! Big fan! I grabbed that from Andrew Marr’s History of the World show so actually that’s really interesting to hear that they got that wrong
@@CoolWorldsLab....Actually, in those days, everything on the wheat plant was ground...they wasted nothing!
THAT is actually used as an analogy in the Bible by Yahweh!
You elwheatist Cody! 😂👍🏻
@@kenneths-godnature7494 But what about the Jews!?
Won't somebody think of the Jews!? 😉👍🏻
"You're still half savage, but there is hope. We will contact you when we are ready", A "Metrone", Star Trek 1966. The concepts of empathy, mercy, forgiveness, compassion are an ethereal hazy thought processes we find being "right", noble, correct....but we don't know them fully.
It may be that we are fully known by more advanced species, but a specific "hands-off" policy may be in place, so we are not aware of their presence.
@@AlexAlcyone Such a "policy" adhered to by higher beings may only apply to "conscious" aware, intelligent beings...and we are in that particular classification....as crude as we may be.
@@AlexAlcyone Well, we currently think of an advanced lifeform as coming from a biological beginning, an entity evolving from a lower form. Its initial senses could remain in a more "un-needed" form, sight, sound, touch...much as ourselves, with our not-so-needed keen sense of smell. The key would be awareness with thought & those remaining senses...Within these senses, AND our devices & inventions, our awareness has increased. Take vision for example, our sight is abysmally limited, but we can detect, manipulate a whole host of energies well outside of our visual detections of the EM spectrum. Our ancient evolutionary needs did not include detecting RF "signals" nor creations of such. The manipulations of our environments has been profound & lasting, molding our world exactly into want we want, desire or need. Just as I type this at 3"48 PM Tuesday afternoon, , from Mar del Plata Argentina, a sunny warm day outside, yes indeed I'm aware of much, my fellow man walking up the street, dogs barking outside this very moment..yes, I am aware, as you are when you read these very words & process my train of thought.
@Speedbird I understand, (feel me)...Lightspeed travel within interstellar travel would seem key to an advanced species. Just obtaining lightspeed would still be very limiting & would have "visits" very few & far between...Almost as if these sailors of space traveling some 7 KPH along the seas, take a very long time to get somewhere....jet airliner travel still thousands of years in their future.
It occurs to me that we may have been put in a planetary "playpen", when we evolve into something more advanced we will leave on our own to join up with those higher life forms (so far beyond us now) that have left behind the traces of their evolutionary processes we call "Wonders".
If only I had a teacher that explained how interestingly statistics and Mathematics can be applied to space and the unknown… thanks for an awesome video.
I could listen to this mans voice forever…. Not only is he giving the most interesting information. His voice is so calming and joyful to listen to I am hooked the minute he starts talking. I fall asleep listening to all his videos … every night. I can’t get enough. Please keep uploading content.
Same here lol. My go to sleep inducer. I love the voice, words everything! It's poetry! I don't think I need more than 10 mnutes and I'm gone lol. Of course I've seen all by daytime too.
What's your favorite? Mine is "Why going FTL leads to time paradoxes"
You are my favourite narrator Professor Kipping. What a wonderful calming voice you have.
Such an insightful video, I really enjoy the curious mindset you induce to the audience!
I just subbed, been watching listening and learning for some time now, and only just realized I've not ever been subscribed, so now I have, awesome... Keep em' coming..👍😃👍
Imagine we find a nearby civilization which is hundreds of years behind us.. Imagine all the horrors we would put them through just in the name of "studying or creating relations "
11:52 "You get it, you lived through 2020." Best line of the vid!
Have not made it yet
In the future: what happened in 2020?
I rarely watch videos over 10 min on CZcams, except for this channel! Amazing content!
You make an excellent point in the end. I'd imagine the first encounters we as humans would make would be far beyond exciting, no matter the age or advancement of the other civilization(or basic animals). As time goes we'll probably start ignoring the "less" interesting ones because there is no gain for us, might not be any worthwhile resources or we just don't want to interfere(which seems more common to us modern humans). As time goes I think we'll eventually end up more toward the latter where we keep our distance as we advance. It would perhaps be safe to assume that older civilizations would be the same way, to avoid detection/contact until whatever it is contacts you directly in some way.
Hi huldu your comment reminds me of the parts in the Douglas Adams/hitchhikers guide to the galaxy (universe?) books where attempts to communicate with alien sophisticates just gets you all bogged down in bureaucratic delays, red tape and interstellar micro aggressions!!
When asking a complex question with variable unknowns, I find it helpful to bring the question in to something simple and known.
Q. "how should we meet and communicate with groups encountered for the first time?"
A. "slowly, cautiously, respectfully until information can be exchanged and a common ground can be found to establish trust, ensuring safety and benefit from both sides."
I just love and appreciate your videos so much. They are always so well done! Thank you
I rarely comment on videos but I loved this one! from my point of view: older civilizations would only observe us without interact.
When our civilization was newer, we would capture animals and put them in cages, and show them in traveling circus. Now we are trending to larger zoo enclosures approximating their habitat, or preserves, or just observing them in the wild. I think an older advanced civilization would know how to observe us without being detected if they wanted to; whereas a civ that recently developed interstellar travel would be more likely to abduct someone or be noticed, at least.
Question is are there so many civilizations that saving this one is not a priority or do they go around grabbing samples for preservation of biological data but not culture.
Looking at how beligerent we are to practice violence upon others I would think that a more advanced civilization would choose not to interact with us, unless there was a fundamental gain for them such as having an ally in a interstellar war, gain access to an odd resource or a need to satisfy the curiosity of their scholars to study our planet´s incredible biodiversity
He pointed out in the video that if a civilisation was younger than us we would probably be more likely to contact them given the low risk, so I naturally would assume that another more advanced civilisation would arrive at the same conclusion. But after watching that kurg video about magnitudes of civilisations it convinced me that there actually is never going to be any overlap of extraterrestrial civilisations sadly.
Totally AMAZING....and AWESOME !! HAPPY NEW YEAR
It is such a wild and surreal thing to think about something as simple and plausible as intelligent life on another planet. Like all we are and ever have been, the things that define who and what we are as a civilization exist here on a tiny rock in but a few short moments on cosmic scale and to think that somewhere there is another one, or hundreds or thousands of civilizations that have their own unique history, their own wars, discoveries triumphs and downfalls is insane to think about.
That interstellar music should be used every time in your videos. It makes it sound so epic and interesting!!
I believe they would rather leave us be until we "grow up" some more.
Well they'll be waiting a hell of a long time 😂
don't forget that it's easier to step down than step up your game. so by definition, they have more interest of engaging us than the other way around. because we couldn't figure out how/what to say to them. when they could easily learn our language to come down at our level of communication. faster and easier way IMO. after that we could learn from them. and step up our game.
Those untapped oil reserves, damn those alines😡😡😡
Good video analysis, thank you. This analysis assumes none of the civilizations would be interacting each other. As soon as this happens then what could be the results of that for the younger civilizations? Would they live longer due to higher technological help? I assume civilizations not interacting each other they are as good as consider themselves alone in the universe, which then in kind voids the interest of the initial question ‘are we alone in the universe?’.
That question always has me picturing different scenarios that would play out if we arrived at our new home world and found it inhabited by a hunter gatherer species. Would we be like the humans out of Avatar or would we be like Star Trek and leave them to develop without interference?
Depends on who gets there first
Science or corporations
@@mdhsneaky4421 🤣 there is no distinction between the 2.
@@anubisiii4384 I feel there is
@@mdhsneaky4421 World Economic Forum disagrees with you. They say: " We own the science, and we think that the world should know it" end quote. not to mention Vanguard and Blackrock..ops.
There’s nothing better than seeing a new Cool Worlds video being released.
Agreed
@Brad Viviviyal Good one
Nice video. Statistically sound for sure, but once a civilization becomes multiplanetary their chances of survival probably go up quite a bit because so many of the extinction events no longer wipe them out entirely. This would create an interesting curve.
Yep a lot of limitations, as expected for such theoretical discussions
Istaria, yes, but our past civilizations died out because of us humans ourselves, not because of an asteroid impact, etc.
Being multiplanetary does not stop us from fighting against each other like in many places on earth or like in every past civilization.
This might be a war between countries or it might be because of unsatisfied people in some countries. And that is not limited to countries, to continents or to neighboring planets.
Might be similar to human lifestyle expectancy when adding medicine etc
@@richard--s Definitely, but like the video states, eventually "something will hit the fan" if you stick around too long - it's just a matter of when. It's a good idea to not to stick around until this happens. Of course it's not the only way a species/civilization could fail but you can only resist the RNG gods for so long.
@@eowendyl yes, you are true. Good points!
The graph might change a lot if you take into account that a civilization's lifespan will likely get close to infinity if they are able to make use of Artificial Superintelligence for its own benefit.
i just had to sub - highly informativ, well explained topics and relaxing to listen to
I love how you go into detail regarding the question of distribution. One objection though: I would hope that technological progress will over long enough times decrease the frequency of extinction level events that can’t be dealt with. If that is correct, then neither animal species nor civilizations we‘ve seen so far are good models. We’re not even a type I civ yet.
While we can't be too sure of the slope of the distribution, it is likely that the underlying model would still be exponential in nature.
Perhaps this is the basis of the Great Filter hypothesis.
On one hand, older civilizations are less likely to be destroyed by natural disasters. However, I imagine the chance for self-destruction (or destruction by outside civilizations) increases to account for that, keeping the exponential.
Given that it looks like we're approaching self-destruction (declining west in conflicts with Russia and China which might escalate; oh, and does anyone still discuss climate change now that we all worry about where we get our gas from come winter?), this point might be irrelevant...
@@aguywithanopinion8912 I disagree that it would be exponential. An exponential distribution is memoryless and the mran time between events remains the same. Instead you'd see an exponential curve morph into another exponential curve with a larger mean time between events and then that curve morph again in the same way, etc. This would give you a much fatter tail than a simple exponential.
Dr. Kipping - i know ExoMoons are your jam but just want to say you have a presence, voice and introspection about astronomy at large that rivals anyone since Sagan. You are very engaging and champion of the science.
I think one thing you may have left out that would bias the distribution even further to the red / older civilizations is that at a certain point, a civilization would become so technologically advanced (and possibly dispersed) that it would become very survivable. In other words, if a civilization can persist for long enough, then it is almost guaranteed to persist 100s of times longer still. So maybe something more resembling a lopsided U-shaped curve.
My thought is this, most civilizations must be on a similar level to us, some more or less advanced. But none the less looking or just now thinking about who else is out there.
I have a next door neighbour that is an elderly spinster and she reminds me of early alien civilisations.
Greetings from Italy.
Always so inspiring, so intriguing and so mind expanding! Civilizations and their longevity. When I hear David narrating I literally can feel my brain activating and thinking. Now concerning the ages of civilizations, extraterrestrial civilizations, I think that we project our human experience a bit too much on those extraterrestrial civilizations. Who says that they actually reside in civilizations? Perhaps they have a completely different take on that. Plus, concerning technological developments, perhaps they just don't need technology or use technology to thrive and expand. Anyway, I always enjoy listening to David indescribable much. Thank you!
They're everywhere. Thousands, possibly millions of advanced species in our galaxy, and most are probably at least somewhat aware of us, if they're not already visiting.
Hi I don't often make comments, but I would like to thank you on this video, the info, the theory the statistics and the script
Awesome work man, keep it going 😊
There's a lot of data here to support cyclicle societies here on earth. Very interesting!
@Jack Strawb misspelling one word or going out of your way to be a dick to someone in the comment section of a video to show your superiority. Maybe societies end because everyone eventually acts like that in time.
@@andrewsarchus6036 he said "here on earth" he's saying earth societies. Lots of data on that. Alien no, earth yes. If you mean that doesn't necessarily mean they have any correlation, then yes that would be a good point.
@@andrewsarchus6036 If you think assumptions are what was presented here then you are not nearly as smart as you think you are.
@@andrewsarchus6036 YOU'RE SPECIAL ED!!
And it seems we're at the end of ours.
Wondering about the T-shirt? We now have a TeeSpring store! (For some the CZcams integration is having some hiccups but should be on soon). Link is teespring.com/stores/cool-worlds-store
Why do I feel afraid after watching your videos
This might not take into account potential waves of colonisation within a system that can provide some «renaissances» opportunities for a technological species.
the only problem is this model doesnt hold up if you simply change your perspective to any other of those random dots.
in other words, you keep saying "us" and comparing us to those around us, but if you change the "us" to one of the red dots, all of a sudden the model is broken. the distribution doesnt remain the same if you change perspectives, and obviously reality is not happening in a vacuum, and in this model the vacuum is represented by the "us".
in otherwords, any model that actually functions, will also continue to function if you change the perspective to another dot.
Once you learn how to tweak the distribution along these lines, youll have a better understanding of the reality, and it will meet more closely with the distribution we see in ages of living creatures, where in any given moment, the younger are more plentiful than the older, and that holds throughout the last billion years of evolution.
speaking of... I think you could develop more significant models of "galactic distribution" if you use the model of evolution on this planet as a foundation. Consider that we already have million of examples of "civilizations" ages, if you replace the word civilization with "species". (indeed when you speak of humanity in space, you are talking about a single species anyway, and the contribution of that entire species, and its comparison to singular ET species in your data points.)
in other words, if you study the statistical longevity of all of the species historically present on earth over the course of evolution, you may see a reasonably accurate representation in geographic distribution of those species, and most importantly: how much geographic location matters in comparison to the competition. ie, you will discover that any species that has longevity, necessarily displaces all other species in their local space.
what you discover is that the majority of "locations" maintain a competitive level that prevents older species from thriving, such that the majority of locations have a large diversity of primarily young species. but that in a minority but still extant number of locations, an old species thrives, and essentially prevents younger species from rising to competition. often simply by monopolizing the local resource supply.
and these species do require a rather large area in order to remain dominant. its extremely rare to find an extant ancient species holding a monopoly of resources in only a tiny territory.
This is my conclusion: most large sectors of most galaxies will likely remain competitive, and thus most species will be young species. then a few large sectors will develop "ancestor monopolies" that stagnate further competition, and young species numbers diminish significantly.
and given enough time, the size of these sectors grow, until an entire galaxy will stagnate under the monopoly of one super civilization.
but this is why time is so important. and we can say with regards to our own galaxy, it is likely still too young to have developed more than a handful of significant ancestor monopolies. this because it took 3 billion years to create our species on a rapid evolution planet (a planet that suffers more natural turmoil than the average, due to small size, and active star, creating over-active plate tectonics which cause rapid natural shifts in the geological environment, thus forcing species to evolve more quickly. Darwin recognized this as "the island effect".)
3 billion years, out of only 14 billion years since the big bang, and a full 4 billion years of Stellar evolution to even create our galaxy, and a further 5 billion years of galactic evolution to create our solar system (and thus any solar system with similar chemical components.)
this time period considered from the perspective of a distant future "history" of our universe is essentially still the beginning. The number of species is likely very low. but 30 to 40 billion years from now, the distribution will stabilize increasingly towards the majority of locations becoming stagnated by ancestor monopolies.
Pause @ 1:10
I'd love to listen and learn, but already the Foreground music drives me Nuts...
I Know I won't be able to stay on 30 minutes, with my poor little brain, trying to make sense of the Scientific explanations And try to tune Out the battling loud..Loud....LOUD..violins, cellos, etc..!!
I'm not that Smart..!
Thank you, your channel is amazing.
I feel like I must be missing something obvious, so maybe this is an irrelevant question, but: If this hypothesis is accurate, and posing hypothetically that every civilization came to this same conclusion, what percentage of them would be wrong?
Or, if this is better,
What chance is there that the distribution relative to us is, let's say, 90/10 in either direction?
Cup of tea check ✔️ ready to get my mind blown 🤪 I love this channel so much I suffer withdraw symptoms when not watching...
It’s incredibly rare for complex life to have the right components to even allow it to exist that I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if we truly are alone in the universe
Great video. I will not pretend to understand everything covered but I am glad there are people in the world like you who try to explain it.
Exactly my thoughts.
This is my new favourite channel. I think I've watched about 4 hours of your channel in the last few days. I can't believe how good the content you're making is. It's like the best aspects of Kurzgesagt, PBS Spacetime, and Vsauce crammed into one. I am looking forward to exploring more of your videos.
Fascinating! Wonderful voice and articulation! Bless you from a retired voice teacher, Francis
Dude has such a SOOTHING voice. Makes for easy listening