The Math Equation That Beat Wall Street | Jim Simons vs. EMH
Vložit
- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
- An exploration of the math that Jim Simons used to beat the market. Learn more about our no-code quant bot design course here: chaostheory.institute/courses...
If you want to learn more about who we are check us out at:
🦄 Join Chaos Theory Institute - chaostheory.institute/courses...
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (or EMH), developed by economist Eugene Fama in the 1960s, and explored in detail in his book entitled “Efficient Capital Markets", published in 1970, is a cornerstone theory in finance that suggests that all available information is already reflected in current stock prices.
The strong variation of EMH discounts technical analysis and even fundamental analysis of having any predictive power in the markets, because all information, including public information (such as historical data), as well as private information (such as insider trading), is already factored into the current asset's price. Therefore, you could never gain a predictive edge which would allow you to outperform the market as a whole over the long run because prices adjust instantaneously to new information.
This means that attempting to 'beat the market consistently over the longer run is futile". The market is "informationally efficient" which makes it unlikely you'll be able to gain an upper hand on it.
However, Jim Simons, a quant trader and mathematician set out to prove this theory wrong. Here believed that there were anomalies in the market and he started a hedge fund called Renaissance Technologies and a portfolio called the Medallion Fund to prove EMH wrong.
Today, Jim Simons is the 49th richest person in the world because his stock trading algorithms could spot anomalies that nobody else could.
This is a story about a quantitative analysis and how one man used this technique when trading stocks, commodities and currencies.
😲 Resources mentioned in this video:
OfDollarsAndData: ofdollarsanddata.com/medallio...
The Man Who Solved the Market: www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved...
Forbes Billionaires: www.forbes.com/billionaires/
If you want to learn more visit us over on our website here:
👉 chaostheory.institute/
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
Chapters
0:00 Using technical indicators
1:30 Efficient Market Hypothesis
3:49 Jim Simons
4:53 Entering the financial markets
5:14 Medallion Fund and mean reversion
7:18 Predictions math
10:28 Quant success
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
🔔 SUBSCRIBE TO CHAOS THEORY ON CZcams 👇
/ @chaostheoryinstitute
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
🖥️ ENROLL IN OUR N0-CODE TRADING BOT DEV COURSE 👇
MAIN SITE: chaostheory.institute/courses...
ABOUT US: Chaos Theory Institute aims to empower the next generation of tech rebels - Věda a technologie
The 8 states of the market are
1. *Accumulation*: A period of steady buying, often accompanied by a price increase, as investors accumulate positions.
2. ** Markup**: A phase of rapid price appreciation, driven by high demand and limited supply.
3. *Distribution*: A period of selling, as investors liquidate their positions, often leading to a price decline.
4. *Decline*: A phase of persistent price decrease, driven by selling pressure and decreasing demand.
5. *Capitulation*: A sudden and intense selling event, often marking the market's bottom.
6. *Absorption*: A period of price consolidation, as the market absorbs the selling pressure.
7. *Uptrend*: A sustained price increase, driven by increasing demand and buying momentum.
8. *Downtrend*: A prolonged price decrease, driven by selling pressure and decreasing demand.
Thank you @loncorp4731. My guess is your comment is going to the top of the comment list! Over 100,000 views and only a couple of people have taken a swing at this. Go over to our website and send us an email and in the email give your YT username so we can give you a little prize. Our small way of saying "thank you" for your contribution :)
@@loncorp4731 Our pleasure :)
Thanks got it : )
RIP Jim Simmons
What a legend Jim Simons was.
8 market state's
1. Upward Trend, Low Volatility (Bull Market)
2.Upward Trend, High Volatility
3.Downward Trend, Low Volatility (Bear Market)
4. Downward Trend, High Volatility
Consolidation Phase (Low Volatility)
5.Ranging Market (Sideways Trend with Low Volatility)
6. Upward Breakout (from Consolidation or Ranging)
7.Downward Breakdown (from Consolidation or Ranging)
8.It's important to remember
👏👏👏 Standing ovation 👏👏👏 Over 100,000 views and you're the first person to take a swing at it. Thank you @QUANT_Arithmetic.
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute I noticed nobody said it in the comment section 🤣
thank you man
@QUANT_Arithmetic wow gd info , would lv to learn more about this. Start a channel or something i will be a first subscriber or member 😅
@@cyjilmuthupara welcome
Ironically quant trading just made markets more efficient and eliminated exploits.
Great video!
Thank you :)
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute on the verge of collapse of the biggest market buble in human history talking about more optimized (aka efficient=price is right) markets is quiet delusional.
nvidia is not worth 2T usd (for how long? you ask if you don't buy the hype and look further in to the future) where and when supply side distruptive replicable and scalable nature of future economy is clearly on stage for good.
@@asencyelyou could’ve used a million different points but you chose to talk about Nvidia. Nvidia is easily worth 2T and will become to most valuable company in the world.
Love the animations and storytelling. Understandable and enjoyable. ❤👌
Your comment means a lot @argenpojani. Thank you!
@@ChaosTheoryInstitutewere these animations AI generated / can we get a link to the src files/prompts used for creating them, these look wallpaper material
Such a good video, very interesting. I'm sure this channel is gonna blow up.
Thank you @bibin1848 :)
What are your thoughts on all of this?
Great Video Very Informative and I learn a lot and it's great you are incorporating Artifical Intiligence to Narrate the story effectively and efficiently ❤❤❤❤❤
Glad you enjoyed it!
Very good production !! So nice, pure math and stats are just enough
Thank you!
In my opinion, those 8 states could be the 8 Markov states that he and his partners at the firm found through numerous trials and errors. They then proceeded to backtest and verify those states against a humongous data set, even going back to the 1600.
What a Beautiful Side of Quant.
This Video Gives a Great Learning.
God bless you Brother
So nice of you
This is not an accurate story of how Jim Simons trade however. They are using dynamic hedging which is different from the trade you are showing and explaining in your for sale course.
@@castlehedge they used all sorts of strategy before settling for the latter
@@castlehedge But ultimately majority of their decision making is done by a program with 500,000 lines of code
@@castlehedge Nice bullshit.
@@MNTrader2012 how?
@@MNTrader2012 Reporting this comment.
Liked the video even before I watched... So interesting and beautifully put together
Thank you @linagabriel6356. Appreciate you taking the time to leave your kind words :)
Great Video!! underrated
Really really appreciate your comment :)
We found a strategy that worked for us on small cap crypto stocks. We monitored open source projects and pulled in huge amounts of data and looked for correlations between development activity (which we primarily pulled from Github) and then we paired that the velocity of social mentions (primarily from news sources and twitter). We also gathered and sorted data in a way that wasn't being done at the time (for example, we would look at the category of the token and look at historical ROI based on category. Others are doing that now, but we were one of the first to do it early on). The algo got a bit more complex than this, but this is the basics of it. The bot was designed to work only on small cap, low volume crypto projects as they crossed the threshold into public awareness. We made money by being the first to know when the crossing was happening :) At the time it worked best for short term trades (1 - 30 days).
When you say it worked well for small cap crypto, what do you really mean? and what range of market cap? And were these meme coins, or just generally any small cap? Also, I just had a look at your course outline on your website. Are you essentially teaching traders how to develop multiple bots for different purposes, or is this all one mega bot?
how did you incorporate strongly decisive/effecting macro trend of btc price itself into the equation? analyzed any reverse correlation between alt coins and btc? in which circumstances/preconditions it was possible and to what extend? curious to know more about your approach actually.
A lot of work for nothing
What tools did you use for this presentation it's really nice
Absolutely insane video, quality content and graphics!
Much appreciated @zaynzahir!
Great video!! Keep such videos coming!
Thanks. More on route!
Beautifully done video.
Thank you very much @larktejano8375 ! Appreciate your kind words :)
What do you call this form of animation, where it can move slightly?
Unbelievable video - talented story teller + great additional insights having read 'the man who solved the market'
Thanks for the comment and kind words @JDRTRADES. And yes, the book "The Man Who Solved the Market" is a great read. Highly recommend to people interested in this story.
Love this style of video. Keep it up!
More to come!
ANIMATION AND EXPLANATION GORGEOUS
Thank you! Appreciate your kind words :)
That's why you always pay attention when other businesses from other states come in to The reward swings and you learn what they're doing to you
Thanks for the comment :)
Love this one
Thank you @Anzeljaeg :)
There are two successful ways to invest. 1. Arbitrage investing with advanced mathmatical models and fast computers. Or 2. Buy and hold companies with strong fundamentals and decent dividends. There is also pure luck, I bought into Penn Gaming in the pandemic at $5.00 per share and sold it when it hit $50.00 per share (more than twice its last historic high)
Hi. Thanks for the comment. I just posted a response to your comment as it's own comment about how we used Github, news sources and twitter mention velocity to catch price changes. It is possible to do. Easy no. Possible yes.
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that just a form of arbitrage trading?
In our case it wasn't because we're still making a prediction about future price movement. With arbitrage you're taking real time advantage of discrepancies between the price of an asset. With arb everything is simultaneous. Asset X sells for $1.00 on exchange A and $1.10 on exchange B. I would argue that arbitrate is taking advantage of this discrepancy in real time (no prediction required). You can also design a bot to look for arb opportunities. They can be designed to monitor asset prices on various exchanges and to look for variations in price above / below a certain %. Obviously you have to take into consideration fees, transaction delays, liquidity etc. But it is possible.
@ChaosTheoryInstitute maybe I misunderstood your premise. It seems like an event-driven arbitrage strategy. (Im no quant for sure) Either way, I enjoyed the video.
Quant analysis does not work. It is just gibberish. The models have beautiful mathematical structures but offer little in predicting the future.
this video about to blow 🆙
Jim Simons Story is very interesting. He and Warren Buffett have different Investment Thesis but both are big Inspirations for me
So what are the states?
Louisiana is one
@@Nic-kh9kr😂😂
1. Bull Market Up: Characterized by rising prices and optimistic investor sentiment.
2. Bull Market Down: Prices are still rising but with increasing volatility and uncertainty.
3. Bear Market Up: Prices are declining, but occasional rallies occur amidst overall pessimism.
4. Bear Market Down: Marked by persistent price declines and widespread negative sentiment.
5. Range Bound: Prices fluctuate within a defined range, lacking a clear trend in either direction.
6. Choppy: Rapid shifts in market sentiment lead to unpredictable price movements.
7. Trending: Prices move steadily in one direction, either up or down, with minimal volatility.
8. Untradable: Extreme volatility and uncertainty make it difficult to implement effective trading strategies.
Very inspiring video
Glad you enjoyed it @intelm. Thanks for taking the time to comment.
Hey, I am a software developer looking to get into finance/quants as a career cause I love math. Do you feel your course might be helpful
Yes. Our course goes very deep into the topic of the math around trading. We start by looking at the basics of using mathematical, conditional and logical operators. Then, after that, we go deep into statistics and learn how to use regression (linear, polynomial etc.) to build predictive models when certain conditions (determined through the conditional and logical operators) are met. Personally, we find these topics fascinating. Learning these skills is nothing short of acquiring a super power. You can see a full curriculum here: chaostheory.institute/courses/course/no-code-trading-bot/
Amazing Video , informative and Christopher Nolan type narrative
Much appreciated!
Superb animation man
Thanks for the comment. Glad you enjoyed the video :)
Has anybody done the course and can give a brief summary on how well it performs
Hi @ismailemir8077. We're really small platform at the moment, but I just wanted to give a summary of what we offer. First, we want to be clear that our course is focused on the technical side of things. On our course page you'll see a full curriculum. Our focus is on teaching you how to build a trading bot without code. We give you the knowledge required to slice and dice data in unique ways that make sense for the strategies that you design and implement. There is no one size fits all solution. The math will need to be applied differently based on what you design a bot to do (i.e. trade stocks, index funds, currencies, crypto etc.). And within each asset class there will be (or likely will be) variations based on what your designing your bot around. For example, bots would generally be designed differently to trade different currency pairs. There is not a one size fit all solution. So our course doesn't give you some magic formula. Instead it teaches you how to build your own formula(s) based on your own trading principles, observations, risk profile etc. Hope that clears things up :)
Thanks. Quite useful
wow these are well produced, did you use Devon?
Thanks for the comment. We use a combination of stable diffusion and our own built-in API for the workflows, sizing, styling etc. Something we're currently working on :)
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute Notice these were likely all AI generated images but people this thread don't notice or care...how much time do you think that saved you?
It wouldn't have been practical to do without AI :) Huge time savings.
Jim Simons pure genius
Absolutely!
At which technical plattform you code the bot?
Hi and thanks for the question. The course tech stack includes a few different services. The bot is built on bubble, but uses alpaca API and various other third party APIs (Polygon, Eden AI, Google's natural language AI etc.) to do things like bring in sentiment and other financial indicator data. We also use some statistics add-ons which help users make predictions by creating linear and polynomial regression lines. In our course you'll learn all of this, and much more, without having to know how to code :)
Great video
Thanks!
08:31
.75 n .8 P respectively that it will move up next week? wow!
This vid is well done
Thank you!
What a great video, would really love to see more of this👍🏻
Thank you! Will do!
Brilliant video
Thanks @SatyarthShankar. Appreciate the comment :)
Nice video. I think Jim Simons used alot of different strategies and the most succesfull one was probably making money in the spread. Capturing small diffrences between the ask and bid price
What are the 8 states?
Mean reversion is for people who trade often and have zero commiossion or very low commission fees. As retail investors, when you use something like a 20 data rolling average in your model, it means it's already too late and it's easy to be manipulated (just like the creator of this video trying to manipulate your ego and fear of being a loser to get you to press the like button). It's a lagging indicator. Unless you classify abnormal data to find where resistance and support are, multiple abnormal models can become predictive
Beautiful Animations
Thanks!
Thanks for the video showing people the reality. guys like u make me share thoughts with others to help them.meanwhile i already knew it whatever you shared in the video To add up and start working towards this guys
1.Learn Gaussian distribution to find anomalies
2.confirm whether its an anomaly by time series analysis of price if its persistent than good.
3. Make trades using ML models to eliminate your behavioural instinct
4. Game theory is a nice topic for so many areas of life watch a video about it
And last my personal opinion do learn about astrology for a top view picture . Because what i think is other planetary motion also effects earth take an example like weather which eventually affects commodities price and moon which control tides and think about one thing if it’s controlling oceans in some way its will also affect our body because thats also made up of 70% water. Indians,Egyptians , greeks they all care about astrology. And that’s why he hire mathematicians, data scientist and astrologist in his company and fund because they don’t care about other shit. Hope someone finds this helpful. And at last Earn and donate that’s a simple way to inner happiness 😉
Let me know what u think about this and help me improve.♥️
Thank you for taking the time to write such an interesting reply.
That astrology stuff if wild about controlling our body 😂. Although what you said first is interesting.
@@user-vx5ld3wf4e Yeah I thought the same 😂but more you read about it the more you’ll know search for wd gann . (The man jim simons will never tell you about ) anyways they use moon cycles and astronomy to confirm different market states because single strategy doesn’t work in all kind of market state’s 🤫😉
i would love to discuss more in the comment section but dont have a deep knowledge in this subject what would i have to study broadly inorder to understand this.
Thanks for the comment @cyjilmuthupara . Yes it's a deep and multi-faceted topic. But if you're interested in this subject, just begin by studying one piece of the pie at a time. The deeper you go, the more fascinating it gets.
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute thank you man will do that. could you give me a topic or subject head name please
Anyone here done their course and can vouch for it?
Hi @majorkuntz and thanks for the comment. Our course is new and small so you likely won't get a response here yet until the course gains in popularity. But let me tell you a bit about the program so you can see if it's a good fit for your needs. First, the course is a no-code course so it doesn't require that you know a programing language. That said, it is an advanced course. It's quite advanced actually. So it's not for people looking for something quick and easy. We work a lot with math and logic and we use APIs and JSON files (which you'll be taught how to work with in the course). It's not a course that gives you any type of secret formula for creating a winning strategy. Instead, we teach you the technical and mathematical requirements to create your own winning strategies. Our focus is on teaching our students how to build complex algorithms, how to slice and dice data in interesting ways to extract meaningful insights, how to automate bot-based decision making processes etc. Our course is also designed for people who want to create their own user-facing financial applications. At the end of the course, you'd have the skills required to build a financial SaaS application that you could monetize. Feel free to reach out to us through our contact form if you have additional questions. Also, a full curriculum of the course can be found here:
chaostheory.institute/courses/course/no-code-trading-bot/
You could look at the lesson plan to see if it aligns with your interests :)
Hope this helped.
amazing
Thanks
Welcome to the most disliked video on the internet. You are a fucking genius my guy! ❤❤❤
Hahaha. Thanks @ElMaestroEstudiante :)
The more people do this the less it will work but...
Rip The Legend 😢
I've heard the story before but never the way it's told here.
I'm happy you enjoyed it :)
I know the 8 states, but the description of each would not fit into the space of this comment.
Thanks for the comment @ASMRunning. Don't add the descriptions... Just add the states. Or add a partial list if you want and others can add the missing states. Perhaps as a group we can do it :)
Fermat is that you?
What are the 8 states
Yep, I think I know what the 8 states are
@@Sarmadness Andrew Wiles here
Nice
Thanks
OHLC is all.
#RIPLegendSimon
The market does not follow a pattern but people does.
It's all about finding those patterns :)
Your website isnt opening,
Try again. It should be opening now :)
Too loud background music, amazing animations
We'll keep this in mind for our next video. Thanks for the comment!
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute I actually like the music. What is the name of it? I have heard it millions of times but don't know its name.
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute The music is amazing !! I'm struggling to find who are the composer and the name of the music. Could you please tell me ?
It is Desperate Decision by Aleksey Chistilin.
The animation is superb!
Thanks for your kind words :)
TOP perfect
Thanks you!
Great presentation style. However, the content reflects a pessimistic style toward market forces.
Thanks for the comment @pepinw. Really appreciate it. Can you tell me more about what part (or parts) you thought took a pessimistic style towards market forces?
@@ChaosTheoryInstitute🤔I'd like to know that too. Using mathematical analysis and theories are enjoyable. I could care less about the animation. However for non analytical individuals, it's a great attention getter.
Jim Simons smoked cigarrettes, like a chimney. I notice I trade better when I smoke too. 🚬🚬🚬
If it has the Markov property, then it must be efficient.
Lovely😇
Thank you!
It’s so obviously possible to beat the market that I’m disappointed that the question wasn’t phrased better to make it a difficult question.
We know empirically that people have beaten the market. More careful phrasing might be whether it is possible for a person to be such a good investor that their expected return is higher than the market return (as opposed to them having been lucky over heir lifetime in a way they couldn’t repeat if immortal)
But even then the answer is yes, people can be good enough to beat the market. The efficient market argument that hinges on information being available and thus priced in…is mostly a meaningless argument once we remember that humans misinterpret and misuse information all of the time.
This channel is going to the moon!
Love your enthusiasm @TheStubertos. We'll have some interesting new videos coming next month that we hope you'll enjoy just as much :) Thanks again.
Rip Jim Simons
Fools Shall Not Replace Us
Why would a “math” or similar major reveal these states to the public ? If it was me I would start with understanding the first 4 states before you get into the last 4.
What other edges do Quants have over dumb money beyond their strategies ?
The edge is a strictly math, data collection and data processing speed :)
Simons died peacefully in New York City on May 10, 2024 which was 2 weeks ago
can anyone teach me how to use continuous markov chain to find the tranisent area in forex to predict before a breakout?
RIP Jim
If the choice is between learning math to improve my gambling odds or buying VTI and waiting around a couple decades... I'm going to live in blissful ignorance
hey the music could be louder!!!
Good rule of thumb is that it should be louder then the narration. /s
It’s actually martingales, that you should be discussing, and in context of the memoryless nature of stock market trends.
Markov chains/processes aren’t the basis - they’re linear algebraic functions on martingales.
Only problem with his strategy is it’s capped at 20 billion.
Not an entirely bad problem to have :)
Can you please lower the music?
RIP
Ues.Yes.Yes.no.no.no
Bro. You did a great job with the visual art. But you should use a pro storytelling voiceover
Thanks @cryptom8537. We're going to go that direction in the future. Just testing the format in the first few we publish. Thanks for the comment.
no
No fucking way, he died?
Haha data structures
yesterday Jim Simons died
As someone with a comp sc background, I’d have to say your blockchain course is too expensive
You spelled success wrong. Stop overhyping renaissance….
Please do your research on Renaissance before claiming they're overhyped.
I have done my research and even read the book the man who solved the market. Simons is an old man who can’t do anything by himself.
@@anthonyandiles5946 at that scale, we haven't reached the point where AI could assist with managing trading algorithms that could operate at that level, that kind of reasoning is a non-starter. With the research that you've done which fund/s at that level have so much better that Renaissance seems overhyped?
Efficient market theory means YOU can’t beat the market. It doesn’t mean no one can. But if you’re reading this, promise you can’t
I’ve beaten the market 4 years in a row if beating the market means finishing up 10% over the performance of the S&P 500. Of course I had an unfair advantage with NVDA stock the past two years but I have consistently beat the market. So I disagree with what you said. Question is was it luck or am I good at what I do? My feeling is mostly luck but I also research my investments a ton because diversification is a hedge against ignorance…
The video was a lot of fluff and blah
Video would've been great if you didn't end it off shilling a course to make a trading bot that uses technical and sentiment analysis. Dislike :)
From the river to the sea, Palestine 🇵🇸 will be free