This Changes EVERYTHING For The Peace Process in Ukraine | Prof. Nicolai Petro
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- čas přidán 16. 06. 2024
- [Part 2 of 2] The west evidently doesn't want a genuin peace process for Ukraine. At least not one that does not end in EXACTLY the way it wants it to, which includes a war criminal trial for Vladimir Putin at least, and a break up of Russia into 15 successor states at best. Now, this ain't gonna happen. Russia has made it evidently clear that it is able to repel all and any such attempts at ending the Tragedy of Ukraine in such a manner.
However, people who dream of a "complete victory" of Russia don't understand that "winning" can't mean just planting the Russian flag in every city of Ukraine and declaring that this state would seize to exist. The territorial take-over of Ukraine has never been a strategic goal of Russia nor is it a realistic thing to achieve, considering the millions of West-Ukrainians who would constantly revolt against Russian occupation. So what can be done?
China is the only country that has ever brought forward a proposal for corner-stones toward a peace process that was not immediately rejected by Russia or Ukraine. The Collective West, on the other hand, has every interest in continuing the carnage for as long as possible.
Thinking about ways forward, Nicolai N. Petro in this video lays out the obstacles but also the chances for peace.
Nicolai's Homepage: www.npetro.net
Part 1: • The Proxy-War Is COLLA...
Chapters:
00:00:00 - China's Agenda for a New World Order
00:03:31 - Realism in International Negotiations
00:07:43 - The Potential for a New Security Architecture
00:11:15 - The Difficulty of Backing Away from Political Commitments
00:14:42 - NATO's Strategy in Ukraine
00:18:15 - The Actual Cost of War
00:21:27 - The Uncertainty of the Eastanbul Process
00:25:00 - Stabilizing the Relationship Between Ukraine, Russia, and Europe
00:28:33 - The Damaging Effects of Sanctions
00:32:00 - Finding Nikolai on their website
In China you can change the policy of government but not the party of government while in the West you can change the party of government but not the policy!
Which do you prefer?
you can't change the "party" in the US either. The US is a defacto one party state. I'd argue China is more democratic than the US. Yale did a study and determined that public opinion and sentiment has literally ZERO correlation to public policy in the US. They don't care. The US is also a massive carceral state with the highest incarceration rate in the world, Americans are 6x more likely than Chinese to be incarcerated.
@@jeffhicks8428
So China's is the better governing system, correct?
And even if America is a de facto one party state they still present the illusion of choice, therefore the Chinese system is more honest, correct?
@@nemojedermann2845 better for who is the question. the American system after the new deal served the majority of citizens well, as long as they were white of course. The US created a broad white middle class. Since the late 1970's the American system only serves the elite, and the benefits of this "trickle down" to a small fraction of the country. The system is clearly failing the majority and that's by design. In China today the system is clearly set up to work for a broad section of society and it is likewise working as designed and intended. China's middle class is larger than the entire US population and it's continuing to grow rapidly. Google "personal income in the US" and read the wiki entry. You will shocked how poor most of the US actually is, and you will likewise be shocked how rich the elite are.
Ukraine's masters won't let it happen, until and unless there's another regime change in Kyiv.
I feel like using the quote attributed to Caiaphas here, in John 18:14 - if that man would be Elensky :)
I agree with the argument that NATO is unlikely to risk a dangerous escalation by contemplating troop deployment in Ukraine. The push for such deployment from select member nations serves primarily to sustain the momentum for military support to Ukraine within the alliance, though with the unrealistic hope that somehow battlefield victory against Russia would be achieved. The recent events in the Kharkiv assault have highlighted significant challenges plaguing the Ukrainian campaign, including widespread corruption in fund allocation, soldier discontent, and most notably, manpower shortages. These factors, among others, pose formidable obstacles that make Ukrainian victory in this conflict highly unlikely, if not impossible.The West will eventually have to accept the unavoidable reality of a peaceful resolution, even if it's distasteful.
@Zhu936, naturally the West nothing against a peaceful resolution in Ukriane, the question only is, what are the conditions of that resolution. And currently Putin and Zelenskyi are very far from each other. If the West could clearly increase it's support to Ukraine and could so get Putin to understand, that Russia simply can't win this war, the peace could be reached quickly. But refusing to support Ukraine like Orbán and Fico have done or by delaying the crucial support package for six months like the U.S. Congress did, are signs of a weakness. And one should negotiate with Putin via stregth and not via weakness. Glory to Ukraine ! Glory to the heroes !
@@vesakaitera2831 The chance for Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength vanished in late 2022 when they repelled the Russians. However, the West failed to seize this opportunity, driven by a determination to undermine Russia. Any hope of a Ukrainian military resurgence after 2022 is now improbable, given the Russians' adaptation and consolidation of their strategic dominance, evident from Ukraine's failed heavily weaponized counteroffensive in 2023 and its ongoing territorial losses. Realistically, the West would be wiser to pursue peace negotiations now, accepting current losses, rather than prolonging a war they cannot win, risking further territorial and human losses, and securing a worse deal in the future.
I've been saying for ages /(well, since the summer of 2022) that the western bloc, and especially the EU, is acting as if the MAP (the way Europe looked around the year 2000, state borders, treaties and the strategic dominance of NATO at that time) must always get priority over on-the-ground realities: "So much worse for Reality!" 😄 They're defending a moral and political prerogative, with the EU saying: "no one gets to move a state border in Europe one inch without first having it countersigned by US!" (pun intended, because of course the EU would obey the US here). The people of Ukraine are sacrificed for this arrogant attitude that "no, no, don't ever change a border unless WE freely permit you to do so!".
And this is pure hypocrisy, Just how did the modern European states, and the US, get to their present-day borders and territorial areas? By all sorts of wars, land grabs, exchanges of land through inheritance, colonization, "adjustments" of borders etc. Much of this would never have washed under what's now called "international law", but the EU is constantly treating IL as some monolithic entity where they, and they alone. are sitting on the rulebook.
(Or another example: for thirty years, from arund 1970 till the late 1990s, England treated Northern Ireland as pretty much an occupied province, with massive police and military presence and interference in local political life: the EU/EEC said absolutely nothing about it, even though the UK was a member and this way of acting was in violation of the supposed "principles" of the EU)
Forget “escalation “: it’s simply politically impossible to put US or UK soldiers where they will die in large numbers.
@@TheGreatAmphibian Yes exactly, that's what I've been saying all along. People may proclaim "Buying anything Russian is Judas money!" and "We must all stand with Kiev and make sure they win!" but the political cost of having American or western European regular army dvisions injected into the war and masses of their soldiers dying by the thousands would be prohibitive - plus it would paint a big target on the backs if westren countries themselves. So there won't be any major "D-Day intervention"
Wow, fantastic input by Dr. Petro,
- truth bombs about Ukrainian soldiers killed on the front;
- comparison Gaza vs Ukraine and the Aid implications;
- Chinas role at peace making and previous success at it;
- who gets to loose by having peace in Ukraine.
Glad that folks in the EU can see through the NATO scam and how it impacts world wide peace.
Thanks for hosting the talk Pascal.
I am sad for Ukrainians . They should be cleverer.
People are the same everywhere. You embrace propaganda, I am brainwashed, Francois in his French Republic, Wong Li in China, everyone is prone to information manipulation and feeding news and narratives.
Same as Philippines n Taiwan- not very bright, no sense of self love or self preservation, just prioritise empty pride .
You could say the same about NATO. But i just can't feel sad for them, as they should have disbanded in 1991.
Ukraine has been governed with monumental amounts of cynicism, bribes and political wheeler-dealing for the last twenty-five years. It was pretty much a failed state even before 2020 (and also bankrupt for years if the investments, gifts, assistance and credits of the -Collective West were removed from the equation)
@@Gunni1972 The US should have been disbanded in 1776. Make America Great Britian Again. Only reason the US fought the British was to keep their slaves. Everyone knows this now but it makes white Americans feel insecure to say it so they try to ban this truth. If the British won, the US would be like Canada today. Is that better or worse? Hmm.
America is like that ageing buck getting challenged by a younger strong buck.
The old buck looks impressive with a bigger set of horns and bigger body but the young buck is much more nimble and has more stamina.
It's always like this .empires never last .
Last kid on the block was England
This is eminently a war for prerogatives: what the US is defending is also its position as Global Sheriff (and "Leader of the Free World"), while the EU is both backing this up and trying to defend the claim that no one but the EU gets to decide what are the correct borders across Europe. At the extreme, they would try to claim that the state of Ukraine continues to exist even though it no longer really exists on the map.
China has been the leading civilization for the vast majority of human history. It's only in the last ~500 years that China went down. Now they are back, and Anglos should get used to it.
The Roman empire lasted for 1,000 years though...
@@fundidoarrojo269 yes .and their infrastructure is still standing in many places
@@fundidoarrojo269 Half of that.
Very intelligent discussion, well articulated.
In the end this isn’t about Ukr vs Ru. It’s about Murica using proxies vs everyone else.
Correct. Kiev (the westernized political elite there) probably walked into that role with open eyes because they foolishly made the bargain (by themselves) that a war with Russia and getting inside NATO would suddenly swing them up to a top position in eastern Europe - but they are still essentially running the errands of Uncle Sam. Without the backing of NATO they would never have provoked Russia the way they were doing long before 2022, nor would they have been able to take a chance on fighting this war. The bargain failed, for both the US and Kiev.
Great analysis and commentary. Thanks Pascal and Professor Petro. Another excellent presentation on the topic of sanctions and protectionism is on Ben Norton’s channel Geopolitical Economy Report.
The Istanbul draft agreement is over, too late. The collective West and the Zelensky regime had a chance. They can only blame themselves.
They can blame themselves for a catastrophic plot to bring down Russia. The meddling of the USA caused this disaster for Ukraine.
My book will arrive at the end of this month! Looking forward to it.
il n'y a jamais eu de diplomatie ukrainienne, mais usa-otanienne.
Very interesting comments by Mr. Petro. Yes, new architecture for relationships between countries of the world agreed upon in peaceful way that would take into account interests of, if not all, but majority would for sure be great. Actually, that would be an achievement never reached in history of human kind. I am sure most of the countries would sign up for it. However, question remains how would leading western powers look at something that would take power from them because that's what would be needed to make something like what Mr. Petro talked about. I'm afraid that the ruling elites in the US would never consider anything that would put them on equal grounds to the rest of the world. But, it's me, I may be wrong which I would wholeheartedly like to be in this case.
No TRUTH no peace......
Why would anyone use diplomacy to avoid a war once a precedence is set in that the reality on the battlefield can be negotiated back to the prewar circumstances even as you are losing. This is a moral hazard.
Russia will decide the peace, and the terms.
And that's when NATO would something really irrational that will kill us all unless we stop the neocons
At its current rate, that's more likely than ever
We don't need it. Let China India and Australia and Brazil looking from the distance propose their model of the future of Ukraine, everything that leads to peace and does not ridicule the memory of our soldiers who lost their lives and their health denazifing our neighbours goes for Russia!
Russia has to decide the peace and the terms. Otherwise the United States will decide the terms of Russia's surrender.
i pray for yellowstone 🙏
22:05 I reckon Putin didn’t release the Istanbul accord draft because the Americans would immediately have labeled it as a fake and Russian propaganda. The draft was independently obtained and analysed by people not remotely connected with Russia, consequently its veracity is not in question.
China or Russia should insist that the unarmed Palestinian civilians and women and children and babies are given water food fuel and medical supplies and personnel. The United States hegemon dawdles as if under blackmail threat.
If those English people view the negotiation process as something you have to initiate with unreasonable demands, is in Russian must also propose a peace plan, where Alaska goes to Russia, Eastern Germany is also Russian and everyone in the Baltic states who does not identify as Russian just peacefully leaves for Brussels, and then we will negotiate: you unclaimed Crimea, we unclaim Alaska, you respect self- identification of the people of Donbass, we are all for the self-identification of the peoples of Baltic states, you want continuity of Germany, we are insisting on the continous soverenity of the shore of the north-western shore of the Black sea.
Troll talk as this discussion seems to be.
Elensky's "10-point peace plan" is pretty much modelled on a combo of how Germany was treated after WW1 and after WW2. The idea is to quash Russian independent statehood, pride and ability to take care of its own affairs, to force an extortionate haul-off of Russian assets and control of their natural assets etc. Of course such a plan would have been a dream come true for both Washington and Kiev, but it remains a fantasy as long as it's not underwritten by a knockout 20-0 victory on the battlefield.
The Brussels elite have foolishly tied themselves to the mainmast of Kiev, and the claim that "this is the *only* way negotiations could happen". They thought they were giving added weight to Kiev's fight and that the war would indeed end in a compelling defeat for Russia within less than a year, but instead they risk going down like the Captain sinking with his ship because duh, Kiev is losing this war and there won't be any grand victory to celebrate for the West! 🔥
I never noticed what a handsome man that, Pascal is.
No homo
sapiosexuals noticed almost immediately :)
I think the Russians will stop at the Dnipro river.
The question is what they would do about Kiev - it is a key city in early Russian history and sits right on the river. Certainly, if Russia were to take over all the land up to the Dnipro river, Kiev would no longer be the capital of Ukraine - if the country even continued to exists after that, the capital would be located somewhere else, further west.
Is nicolai okay he seams to struggle a little bit
Ukraine will never have peace without a nod from the master. China only proposed a solution just once and when the proposal did not receive a positive response from the U.S. China understood and has kept silence ever since. Now, there is a ray of hope for Ukraine simply because all the dollars have been reserved for the U.S. most trusted ally in West Asia. What a pity for all Ukrainians!
Most of those sixty billion bucks are not going towards buying new weapons for Ukraine, and still less of it is some "pre-paid shopping card" where Kiev would get to buy what they want from the US for instant delivery three days later (the "Amazon model") or even a month later. A big chunk of the package is to repay the US army for old weapons of theirs that *have* already been sent east over the last twelve months, and some of the money that's meant for actual new armament is stuff that's not sitting on a shelf today, it will first have to be built for Ukraine...sometimes by production lines that have gone all but extinct and will need to get started up again (Javelin missiles, for example).
These sixty billion bucks are nowhere close to what it would take to have a go at turning the war around, and it may well turn out to be the LAST big support package from America. Ukraine (and NATO) has lost the war.
@@louise_rose
Very accurate analysis of the situation.
@@jackchiu7560 I figured out already in late '22 that if there would be a new major war in the Middle East or the like, something that would make the US consider engaging more directly with their own troops or their own navy, instead of just arming Ukraine to fight - then the new war would take priority, and Ukraine goes to the back seat. This is what began to happen once IL got into a new war with Hamas, plus the Red Sea crisis.
One big reason why NATO has been able to throw so much weapons behind Ukraine is because the US didn't have any other major war going on at the time - once they left Kabul, there was nothing else high-grade going on, so they could afford to pump. But that kind of situation doesn't last forever with the US.
Soon be the end of the petro dollar, each reduced to a nickel I imagine...
НИКАКИХ ПЕРЕГОВОРОВ Blinky says
Where is the plan to split Russia into 15(+) successor states? (mentioned in the summary) The Soviet Union split into 15 - coincidental?
I cannot believe that any nation, including Hungary, really finds this foolish summit the right thing to do. How often are they supposed to buck the system? The summit is a freakin’ insult to Russia. Of course the Chinese will not attend, and the Hungarians should not attend either. On the other hand, I understand why they have agreed to attend. Unfortunately, they are feeding Zelensky’s mammoth ego.
Why shouldn't attend Hungary? They are interested in, as a member of EU, as a member of NATO, and as a neighbour of Ukraine.
Why are so many Americans and Europeans so bitter about the success of China and Russia?
Because it challenges their idea that the two Anglo-Saxon empires (the old and the new one) have a divine right to lead the world forever. Manifest destiny on a global scale.
normal everyday people here with brain are on russias side on this 🙏
When the West couldn't do much when both Russia and China were backwards, how are they going to deal with both now?
You do not make sense. China is successful because they converted from a collectivist to a market economy. China exports trillions of dollars of useful goods to the world. Russia exports raw materials that China uses to make things. The economies of China could not be more different. The GDP of China is 18T and steadily growing. The GDP of Russia is 2.25T and stagnant. Saying China and Russia is like saying BMW luxury car and moped.
First to watch
НИКАКИХ ПЕРЕГОВОРОВ
Terrific expert except for his comments. China had planned Ukraine to be the central distribution center for the belt and road initiative into Europe. It wants to establish non belligerency there to complete its larger plan.
As a European I hope they succeed. In my lifetime I've seen China rise to become a superpower based upon trade and co-operation while reducing global extreme poverty by 3/4's.
The West wants to dominate, China wants to co-operate.
That's one reason why the US and UK want a steady barrier (or unilateral US trade control) in the Ukraine/Black Sea / Caspian Sea region. To the ne@-cons, it's a guiding principle that the main axis of global trade should always be set across the North Atlantic, between New York and London, with all other routes leading there. They absolutely don't want major trade arteries going overland from China to Europe, the Middle East and Africa without Anglo-Saxon control.
Russia wanted to establish Ukraine to be a gas/distribution hub for Europe too …
@@craigrik2699 Yeah, but I don't see anything wrong with that. The US is ALWAYS saying (to cut it clean) "if it's trade with us then it's free cooperation and a glorious win-win, if it's trade with anybody else whom we do not control, then it's exploitation and building up economic dependency by these other guys" 😁
@@louise_rose The main trading route is currently shipping through the Taiwan Straits heading eastward, and across the Pacific.
The US does not want overland routes because they are harder to block than cutting off the Panama canal, Taiwan Straits, the Suez Canal and the Malacca Straits.
Or it’s changing nothing
2-3-4 weeks ago, mysteriously, I was unable to post two of my comments in your comment section. Then later, the comment section was disabled for some time. What is going on? At the two or three CZcams shows ( not only yours), I have been trying to post the comment very critical of the Western stance in the Russia-Ukraine which waste the Ukrainian life. I will not try to post this comment right now since I do nor want this comment to be blocked. What is going on? Do you have problems with the CZcams?
Isn't Hungary the flip flop nation in Central Europe as Tükiye in the Near Middle East?
It's debatable to which extend it's pro.peace. it back paddled on EU money to Ukraine, and it voted against recognizing statehood to Palestine.
This is not flip flopping. This is a game they have to play as the designers has intended for the game. So, the players only play to suit its purpose and advantage.
It shows they're independent
Any peace deal should include the return of all Ukrainian children abducted by Russia:
“UN says 'credible' reports Ukraine children transferred to Russia”, 8 Sep 2022, Al Jazeera
“Russian transfers of Ukrainian children 'a war crime': UN probe”, 17 Mar 2023, India Today
The CCP should first bring peace to its own people before bringing peace to the others....... It would be very easy to achieve world peace. Governments must hand over their “power” to the people, only then will there be the first world peace.
我们拥有和平，没有人想要西式民主。不要再干涉我们的国家了。Open your ears! WE DO NOT WANT WESTERN DEMOCRACY! MIND YOUR BUSINESS.
Poor old Nicolai seems divorced from reality. How could any reasonable person see the Peace Summit as anything aimed at negotiating a peace settlement between the US and Russia?
Ukraine is a significant part of American and collective west hegemony in the world.
Not anymore.
😅😂😅 not now, not ever
Is it? Since when? Ukraine was created as a neutral state, it's in their constitution that they must always be a neutral state, and always was a neutral state until after 2014, which launched it into a civil war that Russia eventually had to enter on one side. The US has zero vital interests in Ukraine, other than as a means of undermining Russia.
No, it isn't. Ukraine has no strategic importance except as a launching point for an invasion of Russia. That is why Russia drew the red line there. For defensive purposes both sides were better off with Ukraine being neutral.
@@jeffhicks8428 Well said.
Like what the guest has to say, but it's impossible for me to listen to him - he talks waaaaaaaay too slow. Very dangerous to listen to if you're driving, as it will make you drowsy (and I'm only half joking).
Why do you speak with an English accent pascal? It makes you sound like a super villain 😂
I can assure you (as an Englishman) that he does not speak with an English accent. One can hear immediately that he has a very European / Germanic sounding pronunciation.
@@raphaelamorEven more a swiss accent 😉
Nonsense comment. He has a Swiss accent from the German speaking region.
This discussion is a sad joke.
No,you are.
If you are going to make such a claim, at least back it up with reasons why you think so?
when i hear"nato personal,usa instructors or my god british "train ukranians how to fight im going from smile to cry,train to do what?it should be oposit