The End of China's Economic Miracle?
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- čas přidán 11. 09. 2024
- NEW YORK, April 20, 2016 - Jamil Anderlini, Lucy Hornby, and Richard McGregor of the Financial Times, Orville Schell, and George Soros discussed how rising wages, labor shortages, and lesser returns on investment have contributed to China's economic slowdown. The panel discussion and Q&A session were accompanied by the presentation of a short documentary produced by the Financial Times: The End of China's Economic Miracle. (1 hr., 9 min.)
Watch: The End of the Chinese Miracle | FT Features: • The end of the Chinese...
Asia Blog: China's Unnerving Economic: asi.as/HZTsVp
Imagine a conversation between Soros and Kissinger. The entire audience would be asleep within 10 minutes.
Uncle Putin says:
"Imagine a conversation between Soros and Kissinger. The entire audience would be asleep within 10 minutes."
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Soros belongs in nursing home.
somenath majumder says:
"both should die immediately. It will be great for this plannet."
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I tend to agree.
lol
This is just a comedy of anti China show
Amone Hongkham never believe the discussion when you do not see any Ethnic Chinese on the panel. And the first thing I noticed was the rug which looked like it was a meeting in the 1700s talking about how to kick others to the side to get total world domination.
It doesn’t take intellectuals to ascertain that communism always fails in a spectacular way. If they’re communists, always conclude that failure is imminent. We are seeing today this spectacular crashing and burning of China’s communism.
This is not miracle. China is simply back to where it's used to be. And yes, it is just the beginning.
China's 2nd quarter's development is 6.8% only !!! OMG they are going to collapse.
Give me a break please.
MoonResident No.9 I understand that in the US with each new quarter, they will revise the past quarter downwards. Why? Maybe the earlier higher forecast was meant to feed the stock market. With the revision, US growth for the first half of this year will slow to 2% or even below that. That is why Yellen is mumbling that the economy is not so strong and that the rate hikes might have to slow down.
if you calculate if for capital， its nothing surprised
Ha haha
Asia Society without any Asian in their panel, strange and questionable.
It's like a British book club. "What's today's subject?" "Let's talk about how ancient Egyptians felt about King Tut's death."
These are experts on various aspects of what is going on in China. That's all that matters.
Demographics,patterns,and math........................
China will grow old ,before it grew Rich....................
Tan Jason true
The Financial Time is controlled by the Japanese? Japan is a big competitor of China? I feel there is a lot of bias in the panel against the Chinese. What is more probable is China will continue to grow to become the number economy in the world.
How many analysts in the past got predictions of China correct?
漢子 Zero because they look at China from the culture of the west
漢子 China's debts are in infrastructure but not in the western financial system which are purely financially system, money going into the derivatives, $500 trillion in total and pushing up the stock markets when there is little economic growth. Not all construction is in housing, there is a lot infrastructural constructions. Remember the population is 1.4 billion people and not all own properties. As long as the size of the Middle Class is still growing, it can support growth in housing or absorbing the supply. To the credit of the Chinese, they have restructured their economy more than in any other country, so what this panel is expressing is pure propaganda. In comparison any propaganda by the Chinese is chicken feed compared what the western media is doing. The MSM hardly talked of the pink elephant in the room the pending collapse of the financial system of the western developed world. What audacity to speculate problem between his the top man and his deputy! I wish he fall with his face to the ground when the western financial system collapses before the end of this year or early next year.
漢子 These doomsayers have been doing so for the past 70 years but each time they were surprised by the outcome. What they failed to realize is that they were many tools available to China, being the authoritarian government that it is. It could re-capitalize the state and local banks being from one pocket into another, and unlike the US which is strapped with a USD 20 trillion debt, China has the reserves. Housing developers can be allowed to go bankrupt with the houses and flats coming into the possession of the banks. Sooner or later there will be buyers for these with the size of the Chinese population and as long as the Middle Class is still growing and why not? China is still a developing country.
Unknown to many including close watchers of China, they have not realized that China now has a more domestic economy with a larger service and consumer sector than an export one. It is also moving its own manufacturing to lower cost countries together with some management staff while staff from abandoned factories due to the slow down in the world economy (if China's economy is bad, the source of this slow down, the economy there must be much worse and it is) either move back to the rural area, some bringing technology with them to modernize farming or grow new crops to develop new products or move with the corporations moving their plants overseas as supervisors. Those "ghost" cities were not because of any strategic error in planning but more the result of the sudden slowdown of the world demand after the 2008/2009 recession which did not recover as hoped, putting a sudden stop to China's urban migration. Urban migration is a result and not a cause of growth as one panelist would want us to believe. As the world demand recovers, so will the urban migration and this will fill the excess housing.
But the world demand growth may not come from the traditional economies - America, Europe and Japan but from new markets along the OBOR, Africa and the emerging markets. That is why China is so keen in developing these. Unlike the Western democracies and maybe India, it does not play a zero sum game, hoping to gain by weakening its competitors. With traditional markets, too, it will also not relax but it will move up the ladder to more sophisticated and higher value products e.g. aerospace, military hardware, pharmaceutical, new energy, construction expertise, high speed rail etc. They can do all these, inter-knitted into an integrated plan because of central planning. America cannot do that. The government of the day faces obstruction all the way. Although in China there is centralized planning, the markets are largely free, unlike what is often claimed. In the past week or so, the RMB appreciated against the USD. Surely this is not planned, just market forces at play.
ZERO.
Rich and powerful Chinese knows better about China. That's why they flee China en mass.
Only those Chinese who are not eligible for emigration have no choice but to have faith in China.
I think there is a typo. It should be the "U.S. Society" not "Asia Society". Where are the Asians?? Surely they can at least put in a token for show. A bit of a joke really ... most of the panel are so old in age & views. it is hard to watch.
The analysts are too biased here
Not a Chinese economist in sight!
4 great panelists LoL
Maybe they should discuss the usd$20 trillion debt the USA has
None of the so called analysts obviously heard of BRICS
Who is else watching in 2019?
it is funny to watch this two years later.
Looking back in 2021, their analysis is downright ridiculous. Too many so called "China Experts" know so little about China.
OK, it's 2018 now, I'm still waiting...
Collapse, ending and slowing are what western like to see.
The people in this discussion panel is ideology-driven. If all there is simply China is "big, weird, wrong", there is no point in even having discussion. Ideology is not a value in itself. People have their favor sports teams they follow. What is that really do? People who do that are not doing much of anything at all.
Phillip Wong true no one has first hand experience in China, they could stay in the fancy building in Beijing Shanghai and not even know the neighboring beautiful city NingBo, no one seems to speak Chinese
Watching this at this moment, makes you want to laugh! Singing from the same song sheet! Same theme of China is going to collapse! How long has this been going?... Twenty years?
Witness if you will. The architects of human misery.
Before these American economic experts criticise Chinese economic polices they should advise USA to achieve the growth of China. Chinese economy is managed by The politburo whose average IQ is 150
2 years later, chinese mircle is still lasting
Another distorted view , no wonder these economists failed every time they come out with their forecast.
They overlook innovation and least developed Western part of China.
FT is one of the controlled media, and I bet they will lose credibility in big way!!
Soros as panel member is an indication of the magnitude of the propaganda in play.
I will sell FT shares because more and more people are losing trust in these entity.
FT is biased media. All those people are ideology driven.
According to these experts' prediction, I predict that the human being will be vanished. Trust me, it will be happened, eventually.
Yesterday.
That's not a very interesting prediction since there's no humans left to "appreciate" it if it comes true!
Another expert proven wrong. 2017 Chinese economy still growing and no debt problem because debt is internally funded unlike US debt. FT is owned by the Japanese. No honest analysis here .
China what happened was its like someone who was deprived good things when he was growing up. Got a chance to barrowed money but once he had it instead of putting the money to grow he put it in buying house. Car. Luxurious things. Then one day when the payments demanded instead of paying he barrowed more money until the problems comes
Please upload a new version:
The End of China's Economic Miracle 2019 ASAP.
Is there all transparency in the US? The economy? The politics? The international situation?
That was not a "miracle", its called plannification and you can do it too, why being jealous?
China is getting cheap labour from Vietnam why does Usa not do the same from Mexico to compete against Chinese in manufacturing?
$28 trillion Debt from whom????
If it is from the Chinese banks, it is not a problem.
Cheaper Chinese currency will boost Chinese exports. Where is the problem?
Dipak Basu If you google for the figures, the government debt of the US is 104.5 % of its GDP while for China, it is 22.4% of its GDP. The household debt of the US is 79.5% of its GDP in the first quarter of 2017, while for China, it is 44.4% of its GDP. If China is bad, the US should be in the ICU.
After 2008 America did Quantum Easing of billions of Dollars ( printed money) was this not Currency manipulation.
Unlike USA most of Chinese Debit is internal as the Chinese save 35% of their income while Americans spend more than they earn. America is surviving by printing money and exporting there inflation to rest of the world.it is matter of time the Dollar will cease to be the worlds trading currency . China is the biggest exporter in the world all it has to do is demand payments in Yuan and Dollar will go done the barrel .
Forward to years,
1. Housing market on the tier 2 and tier 3 cities are on the rise
2. Debt is deleveraging
3. Economy is grow steadily at a high 6%.
The priority of Chinese in the last 20 years has been to give 3 meals a day to its population and it has pulled 600 million people out of poverty. Elimination of poverty is a higher human right issue than free speech. Compared to Chinese infrastructure American infrastructure is third world. Alibaba is commercially doing much better than Amazon. It is easier to get admission in MIT than in Peeking university. And China is turning out 4 times the number of engineering graduates than USA does. Last year Chinese companies field more patents than America did.
It is now 2019, How wrong can you be?
Well, we can all see now... Chinese economic growth is down to 5% and the Chinese Population bubble is officially forecasted to burst in 2022...
More American experts predicting Chinese implosion
never believe what chinese govement said.....i am chinese .....we dont have any human right ,my family are such poor you cant believe ,last week we just share a egg for first time in my life . i am so admire your guys . by 战忽局
长者江 If you are the person your photo shows you should be in prison for the money you have accumulated.
American Democracy needs to learn and adapt elements of Chinese system of governance which is based on Meritocracy
Every day we talk about China, China this China that. left them alone. They ain't so great. remember America still exists.
It is from insecurity.
It is not great yet, but it is a country which you can never ignore with 1/5 of the world population.
mbbsc
China what Americans like to bitch about. The bitching is fun, tho.
Benny Tham thanks
Phillip you mean Iraq， Siria，ec...？
the end of USA
All these western 'experts' are not addressing the elephant in the room, ie, China is successful because of its people...their diligent work ethic, intelligence, family & community values, emphasis on education, deferred gratification, etc. Its the same reason why overseas Chinese communities are the driving the growth in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia. You get the picture. Its got nothing to do with the political system or operating environment. Its the people. Period....and my bet is that China will continue to confound and beat the most pessimistic prognosis of these so called experts.
It is refreshing that Americans think like this about china till the arrival of their certain doom. doom
And China has managed and allowed to work all over the world but adamant to reserve South China Sea for Chinese only and forcefully pressurizes small and strategically weaker countries to renounce their claims. Is it rightful or justified? Today China is reserving some countries to be under Chinese Territory. One day it will claim the whole Asia and afterwards the whole world to be under Chinese Territory.
Hummm, Just like India invaded and destroyed the kingdom of Sikkim 40 years ago? or tries to do the same to Bhutan?
Just a show
The question should be what would YOU advise American government to give its people 10% salary increase every year for last 30 years to match what Chinese government has given its people
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
So wrong, Chinese urbanization rate is only 56%, it needs to be improved to above 80%
Chinese urbanisation may never reach 80%;
look at favelas (the slums) in Brazil: do you consider them urbanised? if no - why they haven't urbanised by now?
Eryk Pyts urbanization has its definition in civil engineering, the thingy slum in Brazil is not part of urbanization.
According to the speed in the past and nationwide stable 5 year plan, it will reach at one point but not now. Brazil did benefit a lot from Chinese infrastructure investment like power grid. Cuz Brazil doesn't have state capitalism, won't be that fast and competitive
2 decades ago 8% of young South Africans were college-educated;
a decade ago only 7% of them were;
now only 5% are [data from OECD];
when will South Africa become 80% urbanised? probably never;
you simply extrapolate current charts: history doesn't work like that
Urbanization refers to the population shift from rural to urban areas, "the gradual increase in the proportion of people living in urban areas" which means more roads, power grids, railways, dams, industrial products... what this has sth to do with college education in South Africa?
you assume that progress is guaranteed everywhere; it is not the case: that's why, for example, you don't see Neanderthals developing a space program these days
Well, this video aged as milk.
I wonder whether you guys still holds the same opinion 😅😂
Financial times is mouth piece for the Japanese. They are now a part of a Japanese newspaper. Singapore fell to Japan because of a British traitor. Brits beware propagander from FT. BBC use to be a great broadcaster. FT use to be a great financial newsper.
Just a talk shop. Nothing serious.
May I point out that some audios are missing? Intentionally?
First lesson, never hold someone by the balls they can't move properly. In nature it has to move by the rhymes. Destroy that rhyme, destroy any talent.
They are there to entertain Asian people.
SEEMS TO BE PREJUDICED UNREALISTICALLY!
Gordon Chang should join to make it a nicer discussion!
The answer is simple - NO
Are Chinese the most paranoid and self-involved nation in human history?
Matthew Hall No. That honour has to be given to the Americans. They have the world's highest spending in defense, more than the next ten countries combined, and they have closed to a thousand military bases overseas.
Matthew Hall, yes they are also delusional.
they look so happy
What ever Georgie says , the panel agrees . Especially the red hair , calls him Mr. Soros . What a waste of time , really !
One has been listening to this type of criticism and approaching end of Chinese miraculous growth for last 10 years. All the western experts have been proved wrong by China. It is about time the westerners start following the Chinese administrative system. The Chinese system is based on Meritocracy which the liberal Democracies have to learn. Chinese political system throughs up leadership in its politburo of IQ 145+ while in USA it is better.
Really going against basic economic ethic laws here man... It's not about Western experts or Eastern experts... We who spend years studying economical mathematics can predict it in numbers...
These guys are reporters?
如果西方专家都是这样，那我就放心了😂😂😂
is 43:45 a joke for free speech and political reform?
my opinion is that China will go" inovation without political reform". xi s job is easy, if innovative economy failed, middle income trap is dragging up political reform, launch a dashline war then.
well, George knows best...
Getranke Nomimono Soros dare not even say that this is a problem that China cannot solve. If China's debt problem is now worse than in 2008, when China used its reserves to help rescue the finance system of the West, China will not be able to do so this time. Soros, by the way, predicts a market crash coming soon in the West.
did'nt happen
why is the sound muted in parts?
B TD censored. This is a typical wester freedom of speech.😂
The next boom cycle of manufacturing is on the way.
Soros has the oratorial skills of a yawning sloth.
Trung Quốc vẫn đứng trong những quốc gia có phát triển nhanh nhất thế giới.
Anybody read lips? What audio did they edit out at 43:08?
Carlos Tobin they make outlandish statement about winning the world cup in the next 50 years... completely nuts.
Often outsiders have a better perspective of things. Regarding china there is a high degree of nationalism which clouds reality. The sooner the murderous regime is gone the better. I feel sorry for the Chinese people.
Murderous Communists care your own business
Murderous Communists Are you communist? Why is your name like this? With such a name, do you expect people to take your words seriously.
Dragons have committed capital sins that's the atrocities against the Buddhists. It is infallible curse of a Lord Buddha that's going completely to ruin them.
It is so funny.
hahahh
One solution is to risk a war for Taiwan and South China Sea.
Smoke and mirrors. Perfect distraction. Cool down dissent and raise the patriotism level even higher... almost genius!
Cool down dissent and raise the patriotism level even higher
-This is what the West is doing.
Ha ha still strong. Bad analysis
Don't believe people that make money with their mouth...
I mean BIG MOUTHS..this is it
We're the choice one
INDIA RISING