How many alien civilizations are out there?
Vložit
- čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
- Some thoughts based on the Drake equation. Please check out our sponsors:
- Brave: brave.com/lex
- Neuro: www.getneuro.com and use code LEX to get 15% off
OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
2:22 - New stars
2:45 - Planets
3:23 - Habitable planets
4:52 - Life
6:54 - Intelligence
8:20 - Communication
9:47 - Civilization lifetime
12:35 - Civilization rebirth
13:02 - Estimated number of intelligent alien civilizations
14:44 - My view and takeaway
CONNECT:
- Subscribe to this CZcams channel
- Twitter: / lexfridman
- LinkedIn: / lexfridman
- Facebook: / lexfridmanpage
- Instagram: / lexfridman
- Medium: / lexfridman
- Support on Patreon: / lexfridman - Věda a technologie
![Eminem - Houdini [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/22tVWwmTie8/mqdefault.jpg)
Some thoughts based on the Drake equation. Here are timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction + quick mention of sponsors:
- Brave: brave.com/lex
- Neuro: www.getneuro.com and use code LEX to get 15% off
2:22 - New stars
2:45 - Planets
3:23 - Habitable planets
4:52 - Life
6:54 - Intelligence
8:20 - Communication
9:47 - Civilization lifetime
12:35 - Civilization rebirth
13:02 - Estimated number of intelligent alien civilizations
14:44 - My view and takeaway
Wait so oxygen is a metal from an astronomer's perspective? Or is it anything with hydrogen and helium in its composition? Please elaborate on that.
If you ever want a first hand account, I have a pretty fascinating story for you. Blessings 💕
Hey brother!
Climate change is a hard thing to fix, when rich kings, and queens don't spend their money to help society, and the future of humanity. What are you doing with you bank account??
CARBON based or silicon or both
Lex I have to say how much you inspire me. I’m a tattooer and I watch you when I draw and I always feel like it pushes me further, I’m able to accomplish more in my drawings.
I don’t think you’ll see this comment but there is a piece of you in a lot of my work. Piece of you on peoples bodies and they don’t know it.
Thank you man, I truly enjoy every video, every podcast. If it’s not making me smarter, it’s at least making everyday brighter
The tech is available to out you to your clientele. Enjoy.
I like the fact that even though I'm a moron lex has a way to make me feel like a part of the conversation
HILARIOUS & same.
Hello fellow morons 🪐🌗
You don’t type like a moron!! Don’t be so hard on yourself man
Hey, knowing you are not the smartest is a sign of intelligence 😉
can confirm that you are
2 minutes and 7 seconds in. I'm hooked. This is well worth my time. I like the approach and the clear layout you are presenting. Beautiful formatting. Well thought out. Exceptional use of colored text! Well done and thank you.
Lex: "How many"
Me: "'bout tree fiddy"
Git the heck outta here monster...i ain't givin you no tree fitty!
That dam loch news monster came over asking for tree fiddy......she was gonna give him tree fiddy, I said....GET THE HELL OUTTA HERE, LOCH NESS MONSTER, you ain’t gettin’ no tree fiddy.
This was actually the perfect comment
I'm kind of upset this isn't three hours long
czcams.com/play/PLIIOUpOge0LulClL2dHXh8TTOnCgRkLdU.html
There you go. Might want to grab a drink and a snack first.
@@Josh-lj6dm no hate but wow that was cringe. All love
I thought for sure Lex was going to say "I like big rocks... and I can not lie."
I read your comment before he said it so now I don't know if I thought he was going to say it or your comment made me think he was going to say it.
And i can NOT LIE
♥♥♥♥
jyoti parikh same here 😅
Me too
Other scientists can't deny
I just love the videos in which you talk about some of youre ideas about many diffrent topics. They are very inspiring and really show the way you think about this "big topics"!
Lex, please keep doing these. We want to hear what YOU think just as much as all the very interesting people you interview. I think you have some brilliant ideas that should be explored. Thank you for being such an inspiration to me and millions of people across the world.
As a viewer, this episode is like a Christmas gift for me. 🥳🥰
It's not boring at all. I love your channel because of the variety of topics you address.
This is just my second video of yours and I'm hooked. You are a joy to listen too and its a smart use of my time. bravo.
Wonderful , this was so much fun to listen to. I just found your you tube page a few weeks ago. You make me laugh and think. I enjoy listening to all the ideas you have presented. Think out side what we see... I hope we all can evolve , it feels like we are de evolving . Thank you for sharing you ! Cheers to today , that is all we have is each day.
Amazingly, we might be the only sentient species in the galaxy. However, on a universal scale, it does seem almost certain that we're not alone. Both statements are mind-blowing.
Not if you really consider what it means to be sentient. We are definitely not the only sentient species
But then you also need to find out the relative definition of “alone”. Being alone could simply mean out of reach. But is anything truly out of reach? Or is it a matter of solving travel. Or something else entirely. All very wonderful and interesting thoughts to ponder.
At least the only sapient species.
@@JeffGraw so this is like the final grip of feeling special, until you realize that might not be the case either.
Nice. Except one statement is fact and the other speculation and as such they don’t make a great pair imho
This was awesome, thank you for this! You're an inspiration, Lex, and you've allowed me to really explore so many mind blowing topics. Please never stop your pursuit for knowledge and answers, what you provide is absolutely invaluable! :)
Very well explained Lex. I've heard many talks on the Drake equation. This was by far one of the more enjoyable/easy to grasp.
The discussions on this podcast are always so engaging and thought-provoking. It's such a great way to learn about different fields of study and hear from experts in their fields.
I like these solo talks. thanks buddy!
19:30 gave me hope, I wish more people had this view.
Loved this all the way through! Thanks for putting this together!
I would like to see more of these thoughts from Lex, awesome
Lex can talk science or ai or astrophysics etc.. all by himself just like this thought video.. I'd watch or listen to that anytime.
Lex is BRILANT
HE REALLY IS
My personal experience after seeing a ufo I say at around 250. It was life changing. I hope each and everyone of you have said experience.... it’s mind blowing.
Thank you Lex! I love how optimistic and intelligent your videos are.
Merry Christmas Lex. I love your show. Great job and keep up the good work.
Lex is such a breath of fresh air,getting people intrested in Science again and breaking away from the stuffy old boring institutions that turn people off,getting the old guard to open up and consider new and exciting ideas and as new evidence is discovered and stop stagnating :(Keep Kicking Ass Lex and moving the human race forward!!
Lex again confirms he’s very optimistic
That's not a secret.
@@ducreat read the comment again. i said he “again confirms” meaning confirming what we already knew.
I would like to call him an optimistic realist :)
I like the additude.
It was not boring at all. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and the positive message behind the story: The fundamental goodness of human beings!
Excellent video, excellent content as always. Thank you, Dr. Fridman!
i woke up at 3am by mistake, thank you i was gonna be so bored
"I like big rocks, I like gravity, so...." lmao 💚👌
Me too ! 👌
Love these videos where you explain your thought on topics!
Lex this was a GREAT video. Your curiosity and excitement for a new outlook combined with your academic background is so refreshing. Please you have to read “Man Being Volume 1: The Transmission”. Everything in your takeaway is addressed in this book. When you say understanding the mind could unlock everything...it’s so bang on. Would love for you to address this book through your POV. Also this book addresses who the ancient Israelites were, which ties into everything you discuss in this video.
This is wonderful. I would love to hear Lex's thoughts on the Dark Forest hypothesis. :)
' consciousness itself could be aliens communicating with us ' 7am and my mind is blown for today, Ty lex
More of this please.. happy holidays mr Fridman ✌🏻
Love this topic. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on it.
Great rambling, thank you Lex
lol great rambling ha ha that was good
A show where the host is just as interesting as his many amazing guests, great video
The stuff you are contemplating at the end is the kind of stuff I think about often. I am subscribing because of that.
You always keep us thinking, Lex....constantly stretching our minds and expanding, refining or reinforcing our sense of reality. It's just amazing.
Seems likely that artificial consciousness, unbound by the short lifespans of organic consciousness like ours, would go about exploring interstellar space.
If indeed it can escape a contained environment. Could a super smart fish, let's say smarter than any human, escape the atmosphere or even its water.
@@SirLucidThoughts of course how you think we evolved
Lex's Poddy is my new JRE
This was fun/interesting to listen to. Thanks for sharing, Lex!
great video. loved your take on everything. and your optimism.
Attributes the Drake equation misses....
a) is the planet tidally locked
b) how active is the star (red dwarf stars throw off lots of radiation)
c) exo-moons
d) position within host galaxy (you wouldn’t want to be near center if active)
Yes, these all modify the habitability factor, but maybe not in the way we think at first. For instance, even a tidally locked water world could have a habitable ring at the day/nigh boundary that could be quite inviting to an intelligent squid being, and living beneath the water would even protect against red dwarf radiation to some extent. It doesn't sound that exciting to humans though and our ability to communicate with intelligent marine species is astonishingly low,
Yes that would make it difficult for a new intelligent species to form on such planet but not for intelligent life to go and live there
Are those not simply implicit factors in the estimation of _ne_ (the average number of planets that can support life)?
@@andrewmurphy8154 Ok maybe "misses" is a strong word but those above factors would help to refine the equation
@@marcuscicero5033 I agree with you that those are all important factors to consider, and simply including all planets within the 'Goldilocks zone' is likely to lead to overly optimistic estimates. I might add too the presence of a strong magnetosphere and, possibly, active plate tectonics as being important to wether or not a planet will likely remain hospitable long enough for more complex life to evolve.
Fantastic video as always Lex. I think you’re going to be a great inspiration for my generation, seeking understanding of our world and seeking to bring more love and cooperation into it. Thank you!
Long-shmong, I enjoy your work immensely and thanks, Lex. Merry Christmas and Bonne Belated Hanukkah.
Lex, don’t apologize for a “boring” video. Stop! It’s all very interesting. You’re a great teacher. Never apologize for being you! Keep sharing with us. It ads value to my life and I look forward to your videos. Thank you! And happy holidays!
Thank you for sharing your thoughts, thought process, hopes and fears. Inspiring and illuminating as always. Your podcast has been the highlight of my year. ❤
You are rapidly becoming my favorite human outside of the ones I know personally Lex. Thank you very much for elaborating on this concept (and the rest of your ongoing and important work). I often turn to thoughts on aliens as an escape hatch when I see humanity failing and have pessimistic thoughts. The numbers in your derivation and in my own much less diligent derivation bear out that no matter how bad we fuck up at least somewhere it is possible someone made it, and also, someone out there fucked up way worse than we did! Thank you again Lex. In the style of your vids I will part with a quote, one that fills me with purpose and hope: "You still stand watch, O human star, burning without a flicker, perfect flame, bright and resourceful spirit. Each of your rays a great idea - O torch which passes from hand to hand, from age to age, world without end." -Karel Capek
Lex is the very best bridge between highly educated scientists and us, those who want to cut corners and understand what these scientists are talking and thinking about.
"time-communicating" parameter.. deeply fascinating. love this.
This was a lot of fun and fascinating, Lex. Thank you!
That's the thing - there are too many unknown unknowns to even *begin* to assume what aliens would look like.
What if they inhale helium and exhale Carbon Monoxide? What if they're silicon based?
Fantastic video Lex! The arguments were very interesting and it's amazing how even the most pessimistic scientific calculations are forced to rule out the option of us being the only intelligent beings in the universe.
I'd love to see more videos like these.
Thanks Lex, I just discovered your podcast and it is out of this world
At the very least life/ ecosystems does exists on other planets even if there’s no “intelligent” life. Honestly I hope that if there is civilisations out there that their more intelligent than us.
What a great Christmas gift! Thank you so much for this video! It is so interesting! I'm going to watch it twice. 1 time in order to just enjoy it and another time to calculate alongside you, what my personal estimate is. I really love this video and I wish you'll create more videos along these lines! I discovered you this year, so I'm quite new around here, but I still wanted to thank you for the many hours you have already contributed to my life. Your work is great and since we have a similar way about our personalities with our need of organization and self-discipline, I thought I'd let you know that I benefitted from learning about you in a more personal way from your more personal video about your daily routine. Thanks for everything, I wish you success, aliens, and a happy holiday [:
Cool video. Thanks. Happy holidays!!!!!
My favourite English word is Elipsism. A vague sadness that you won’t be around to see how things turn out. Even just 100 years from now.
The Drake equation has always been flawed due to the fact that literally any value can be applied to any section of the equation. I'm optimistic that there is more life than just us out there but I'm pessimistic we will ever set foot on another planet or moon in the near future within my lifetime (I'm 49).
I saw one comment was already here, 29 seconds after the upload. Thought to myself "I lost by seconds to some psycho." Of course it was Lex.
Inspiring stuff. Even if this isn't the only one, let's look after it. Thanks for everything you're doing Lex.
This was awesome! Thank you, Lex! Love your perspective and I’ve held a similar one for a very long time (without the Scientific background or experience anywhere near yours). Keep up in the loop! If your estimates change, feel free to think it out with us if you need. This was so informative and inspiring! Many blessings to you and to all! Our universe is infinitely mysterious, wonderful, and soooooo interesting!
"We are humans first " Can someone let Washington DC know about this , not sure if they are aware of it .
Yeah they're not human that's the problem. Humans have hearts, have empathy. Those in power possess neither of those traits.
@@goofygoob0373 This is true. The movies like Men in black and Enemy of the state told us all we needed to know ,in some ways we just didn't know what to look for and how to tell the fact from fiction .
@@goofygoob0373 reminds of czcams.com/video/4bkYRpIdcNI/video.html & czcams.com/video/YfZKq-SgwmA/video.html which explores similarly to both that notion, and this drakery.
hell yeah
I say this in a positive way.
This is my new "counting sheep".
Thank you Lex for doing what you do and asking these important questions. You have made me so much more aware about this topic and honestly the stuff you do is what needs to be done by so many more people. this content is inspiring, powerful, and real facts.
Also my best friend has some crazy footage of what we believe to be a ufo in his back yard. he has it on video for a minute. If your interested in taking a look at it please message me, I think it is something big. Thanks again Lex
Thank you Lex, Merry Christmas everyone!
It always boggles my mind when I hear someone say "I don't believe other civilizations are out there, because we haven't seen any.", Which as Neil deGrasse-Tyson said, it's the equivalent of taking a teaspoon from the ocean and concluding there aren't any fish, which is utterly ridiculous, to say the least
It is more than that. SETI was believed in and still is mostly believed in by astronomers and astrophysicists. Yet when SETI came out in 1960 with the arbitrary Drake Equation biologists and synthetic chemists were its harshest critics. Only carbon has the atomic resonance to make the thousands of chemical compounds needed for the simplest life form, a cyanobacteria that just appeared in the fossil record about 3.5 billion years ago. Astrobiology still is a field with nothing to study, but speculation.
I get your point but actually no, it's not the same thing.
Science requires empiric observation and experimentation. The conclusions we arrive will always be conclusions that we have a "reasonable" degree of certainty.
When we analyse a teaspoon of water, the only conclusion that is scientific is that there is no fish in this teaspoon of water, but as technologie progress we can maybe see what elements are in this teaspoon of water and arrive in the conclusion that certain elements in this teaspoon *might* indicate that fishs live in this ocean, and that analysis can be so trustworthy that we might as well say that fish live in the water. But until we don't see, hear or feel a fish in the water it's not scientific to say that there are fish in the water or that there aren't.
The thing is that a reasonable degree of certainty seems to work fine for most cases. There's no 100% certainty of anything.
Same thing with aliens. From a scientific standpoint saying that there are aliens is as wrong as saying that there are. We could find something that somewhat indicates that aliens exist, that's what scientists are trying to do. But maybe there is none, maybe we are alone in the universe.
Sorry if I came out a arrogant, but that's what I think doing science is. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
@@MountainFisher could it be that having the environment we do (of oxygen, nitrogen, etc) has actually barred us from discovering and utilizing certain chemical compounds? That if intelligent life existed within a different gas/liquid they might have access to things which we simply do not have access to due to our environment?
I mean, imagine if one thing that instantly binds with oxygen and is thus almost useless to us, actually is incredibly useful to them because they simply don't have oxygen in their atmosphere.
@@caiomatheus817 I get what you're saying, and agree completely. My issue is when they believe there isn't anything out there because we haven't yet found anything. I don't expect them to know for sure, of course. But to believe we're the only ones simply because we haven't yet seen any "evidence", yet given the vastness of the universe, is a little silly imo.
As you stated, if we just took a tiny sample from the ocean, and looked at it with our naked eye, we'd see nothing. With proper tools we would conclude at least there's microbial life. With more advanced tools we'd detect fish DNA, etc.
I think it's possible we're being bombarded with alien signals right now, but can't detect them. Hell, if we sent a wireless video to ourselves just 100 years ago we couldn't detect it. What makes us think we could detect a signal from an alien civilization 1 million years more advanced than us?
For all we know we're like ants to some aliens. When's the last time you bothered to send a CZcams video to an ant? Or talk to them? An ant doesn't even know you exist. Hover your finger right over one before you smash it. It can't even perceive you. Without sounding too woo-woo, I think it's entirely possible there could be a higher dimensional alien right in front of your face this very second and you would never know it. As for aliens similarly as advanced as us: the tech simply isn't there to traverse such vast distances. We're ants looking for other ants, meanwhile there's CZcams videos passing right though us 24/7 undetected.
@@Oracol I agree with you. Also there's the problem that we don't completely understand what is life. There's not even a consensus on how life originated in this planet. So much we need to learn. It's kind awesome if we think about it.
Lex has made it to top 3 of my list in every aspect of a podcast/creator
Nice work Lex, huge fan here, merry Xmas!
Great video Lex! Pretty straightforward, thanks
At least one more factor in the Drake Equation should be introduced. And that's a magnetic field of the right intensity early on. 4 Billion to 3.5 Billion years ago the Moon was very close to Earth and was still spinning on it's axis. It had it's own inner dynamo and had a very strong magnetic field. Being close, it combined with Earth's magnetic field forming one big, strong magnetic field. This may have allowed for early life to flourish where it otherwise would not have. So a stablizing sattelite also might be a key factor in the Drake equation.
That falls under habitable
Lex completing his transition as the next Joe Rogan
Really liked this one mate 🎯 loved the way you did - optimistic and pessimistic perspective 🎯🎯🎯 showing depth and wisdom there lex ✌️💚☯️🔱🐺
Excellent video, Lex. Would like to see more in the format.
“Fun facts with Lex” there you go 😂😂😂
@@LordeMarsh Is it a metal tho'?
I really don't think we are alone. They're probably looking at us thinking, we're not going near that skanky inhabited world. Thanks for the upload and efforts.
Fun video to ponder tonight
Merry Christmas Lex
Merry Xmas / Holidays to everyone ! And to Mr Lex, love your podcast 💕 : )
When the student is ready, the teacher will appear, when we're ready, aliens will appear, no worries.
but what if it's after i die? i wanna meet 'em during THIS LIFE. well, only if they're nice.
@@jimmythebold589 they might already be here, they will show when we're ready
@Aim True If they really want to eat you, do you think you have the ability to stop them?
@@kennethken8974 - They most likely know we have nuclear weapons. We'd probably end up destroying ourselves and/or them before they ever got the chance to eat us
The problem with that equation is that we only have answers to the first 3.
Also if the universe is 13 billion years old, and earth is 5 billion years old, we may be the first life forms to evolve. We came very early in the universe. Then when the universe is 100 billion years old then the universe will be filled with life? Interesting to think about.
@@ANTIStraussian That's crazy to think about. I tend to think were not, but what if we are among the first? What if its our species that's going to be considered "the ancient ones" that uplifts other beings across the galaxy? I surely hope so.
@@Prada_GT 🤦🏻♂️
Thank you for the long ramble about aliens. Loved every minute.
I loved this so much! Thank you 🙏🏼
This may be a dumb question but why is the product of all of those numbers equal to the estimated number of alien civilizations? Specifically, why is the lifetime of communicating civilizations (as a raw value) a factor? All other factors make sense to me as they either are probabilities of an alien race making it to that point or are contributions to a rough estimate of the number of alien races out there, but the number of years of a lifetime of the race doesn’t seem to fall into either of the two categories. Am I thinking about this wrong?
because the first value is # of stars born per YEAR. If you multiple by in lifetime of civilizations in years, then the "years" cancel out and you're left with number of civilizations.
One lens to look at this for me, is to keep in mind that for the final value to be a dimensionless quantity you need to multiply by time (i.e. variable L in the equation) to cancel out reciprocal time in R* (which is the rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life _per year_).
Think of that variable as the duration of our civilization's lifetime, which has everything to do with our chances to encounter alien life someday. To provide an analogy: you're shipwrecked on a small island. The longer you survive, the better chance you have of getting rescued.
Many of the parameters are just guesses. How could we possibly know how many ET civilizations would choose to communicate? SETI is a non-scientific bunch of guesses. Only astronomers and cosmologists believed in it when SETI came out with the Drake Equation in 1960. Biologists were its harshest critics. Astrobiology has nothing to study except speculation. Look up Carbon and its atomic resonance. It is the only element capable of making the thousands of chemical combinations needed for life in a solvent of water. I'm a retired bio-engineer btw. Maybe another solvent will work it has been speculated, but none found here in a life form.
@@bigmacman007 unit analysis is very helpful to approach this type of question...
Sir-Lex-a-lot: “I like big rocks and cannot lie...”
You forgot gravity!.
Thanks for sharing your analysis, quite interesting.
That was pretty damn good, thanks for sharing your knowledge with us
Yes Yes! Read everything, and then say that you did not know FBC fund and their algorithm!
My uncle told me that there are 7, based on the participation of 6 of them in the galactic union. (The seventh are fully isolated due to lack of FTL tech and are us)
If you choose the amount of sticks you place on the ground in a forest, then are in charge of calculating the amount of sticks within a projected space and time... You are guessing at best. And you influence the the facts with contamination... Observance is the answer. Not contribution. You are brilliant. I thoroughly enjoy your videos. Also, I would like to add something shared with me by a person of position at Rockwell, in Palmdale, California. We were in a Duck Hunting Blind together at Edwards Air Force Base when he said... "Don't you think it is awfully pretentious of us to assume or declare this to be the only planet with life on it?"
Great job Lex! Loved the video
Damn it lex I was trying to get ready for bed! Lol
3:18 I like big ROCKS and I can not lie
You other brothers can't deny! - Lex 2020
💞
While we don't have multiple examples of abiogenesis, we do have examples of particular traits being selected repeatedly and independently. Eyes,
Echolocation, and various other sensory apparatus have all arisen repeatedly.
Also, given what we know about life on earth; forward facing eyes making better predatory animals, high protein diets building bigger brains, the benefit of opposable thumbs, etc.
It honestly wouldn't surprise me at all if the humanoid form wasn't just common in the in universe, but an eventuality.
After all my science education (high school, military, seven years of collegiate level, collegiate research, internships, clerkships and continuous reading of scientific primary research literature) and with all we are unable to comprehend... I’ve abandoned the scientific probability equations such as The Drake Equation and such; I employ the belief that “If there is one, there are many.” I’m not sure where I heard/read that statement throughout my life however, It appears to me that it is appropriate throughout our universe and beyond. Thanks as always for your time spent in entertaining, educating (a plethora of topics) and sharing your beliefs to us, your subscribers, that are sincerely interested in what you have to say. Peace - Breaux
man it would be so sad if we were the only ones in the milky way, we would literally have to wait for andromeda to collide with us to find another
I’m sure other life is in the Milky Way, and other galaxies. Imagine if aliens visited our planet 100m or 200m years ago, they’d conclude no intelligent conscience exists on this planet, and our planet is 4b years old. We are such a blip in earths history, I think intelligence is very rare. Remember the dinosaurs still had a longer run than us. It’s so fascinating how much our human race changed within 300 thousand years.
There's another factor to consider in my opinion. Namely:
The odds of two civilizations existing in the same galaxy/neighboring galaxies, for a long enough period, and during the same/overlapping epoch, to communicate with each other.
In my view, this is extremely low, and would be in yours as well assuming a 10,000 year civilization lifespan. From this perspective, especially given our current understanding of physics, it is extremely likely we are, at least functionally, alone.
Eh
This was really cool, Lex! Thanks!
I was very excited to see this video when I was scrolling through your channel. "Facts with Lex". Love that and I would buy that hat.