ETHIOPIA | An Independent Tigray?
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- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
- In early July 2021, leaders in Tigray, the northernmost province of Ethiopia, announced that the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) had retaken the regional capital, Mekele. This marks a stunning reversal of fortune for the Ethiopian Government, which just six months earlier had declared that it had secured Tigray. This inevitably raises the question of what happens next? There are in fact a range of options, including Tigray independence, unilateral secession or even another Ethiopian invasion. However, as I will show, each to these carries a huge cost.
Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay. Here I take an informed look at International Relations with a focus on territorial conflicts, secession, independence movements and new countries. If you like what you see, please do subscribe. If you want more, including exclusive content and benefits, consider becoming a channel member. Many thanks!
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The Tigray Civil War has now entered a new phase. After the Ethiopian Government, assisted by troop from neighbouring Eritrea, appeared to overthrow the Tigray People's Liberation Front, in November 2020, it always seemed likely that the TPLF would continue the conflict through an insurgency. What few predicted was the speed with which Tigrayan forces were able to regroup and retake the capital. In doing so, they have apparently destroyed a substantial part of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). But while Tigray has now managed to force Ethiopian forces from most of its territory, the conflict continues in the west, where forces from neighbouring Amhara have taken control of parts of Tigray. Meanwhile, the government may try to regroup. And there is little sign that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali intends to back down. This will pose some serious questions for Tigrayan leaders, including whether the want to consider the possibility of pursuing independence or even resorting to unilateral secession.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:31 The Tigray Civil War Enters a New Phase
1:04 Background to the Tigray Conflict
4:06 Scenario 1 - Another Invasion by Ethiopia
5:33 Scenario 2 - Tigray Independence
6:39 Scenario 3 - Tigray Unilateral Secession
8:25 Remedial Secession for Tigray?
9:00 Scenario 4 - Peace Agreement
11:12 The Future of Tigray in the Balance
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Current Issues and Disputes • CURRENT ISSUES AND DIS...
Secession and Independence in Africa • AFRICA
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FURTHER READING & USEFUL SOURCES
Ethiopian Constitution www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6b5...
Ethiopian Forces Captured in Tigray • Ethiopian soldiers cap...
Tigrayan Peace Demands reda_getachew/sta...
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KEYWORDS
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#InternationalLaw #InternationalHistory
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Tigray Defence Forces have secured an absolutely stunning reversal of fortune and have retaken the Tigrayan capital, Mekele. But there are serious question about what happens next. So, is independence really an option? And should Tigray pursue it, despite the problems I outlined? Or is there a way to reach a deal with the Federal Government? As always, thoughts and comments below.
By the way, you may have also seen a 'Join' button next to the 'Subscribe' button. Do take a look and perhaps consider signing up if you would like to help the channel. Many thanks!
What? How can you buy this rhetoric? Ethiopia left the area not wanting to escalate a door to door fighting. That is not winning or losing. Ethiopia is having sympathy to the people there. Unfortunately 99% of tigreans hate the Ethiopian army but that does not give them indpendence rights, because tigray ruled Ethiopia for 27 years with iron fist. That in itself is ta claim that tigray is ethiopia and are Ethiopians. They can not deny that and ask for independence. Get your information story straight if you are that nosy. Ethiopia has the right to find the dictators whom 100 million ethiopians want justice.
@@brainwashcleaner1843 what your not learning is Ethiopia has no control over Tigray they chose there own destiny but the Ethiopian military is finding that out the hard way we choose are own identity not Ethiopia and Ethiopia can’t stop it tried and failed to be honest Tigray was its own state for the last 30 years
@@mulubirhanhishe5595 you can not have the cake and eat it too. ሲመች ኢትዮጵያን መግዛት ሲመች ልነጠል የለም፥፥
@@brainwashcleaner1843 the Ethiopian government has been committing human rights abuses and it is well known that Ethiopia is blocking humanitarian aid from reaching Tigray regional state that has about 5 million people in danger of starvation due to the government blocking farmers from planting seeds when they were in control of Tigray, Tigaru can now use this reasons as to why they need to secede from Ethiopia
@@pro-Russia Well, tigray needs to stop the rhetoric that they will invade eritrea, and gonder etc. Stop playing games by pretending you are in hunger. Your people are all over the internet showing you won, parading prisoners'. Winners do not beg at the UN and winners do not get hungry.
I first heard about Tigray yesterday on the radio. I don't know how couldn't I know about this, why media in my country (Slovakia) don't pay that much attention to it. So I watched all the videos on this channel about Tigray. As always, the videos are very informative, James Ker-Lindsay never disappoints.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate the extremely kind words!
You are right. It really isn't getting as much attention as it needs and deserves. It is an extremely serious situation. And given the size of Ethiopia, any wider conflict could have devastating consequences. Some have compared it to Yugoslavia, except that it is about five times the size. Very worrying indeed.
@@JamesKerLindsay
1) You're welcome, you fully deserve my kind words.
2) Exactly, it definitely isn't getting as much attention as it should. When I first heard about Tigray on radio news, it was about how the Tigran forces recaptured Mekelle. They announced it on the radio yesterday (13 July 2021), but that recapture occured on 28 June 2021 (at least this is what Wikipedia says).
Always keep in mind this guy is not a partial reporter.
I went from zero knowledge about this to having all fundamentals needed regarding this issue. Thank you very much, James! Keep on the amazing work!
Thank you so much. I appreciate it, as always!
These racist white journalists are so biased they tell us half ass facts. They play games with Africa and read and narrate the news by remote from Europe and America.
Sir believe me you have add zero knowledge from this analysis. They are pushing us to believe their story so they can interven.
An indepth, informed, intelligent analysis that must be watched by all those interested, involved in Ethiopian affairs.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. I know that a lot of people won't like what I have to say, but I do like to think that I took a step back and offered a well-reasoned outline of the choices that now exist for both sides.
Excellent summary! PM Abyi has been calling and treating Tigray as if it is a foreign country and it will be very hard to live as one country again. He escalated this war with hope that he and his allies will destroy and element them forever. Obviously he forgot the TPLF made him the man that he is today.
My brother you're 100 %right ✅ 👏🤝🤝❤💛
That's not quite right. For 40 years, tplf, with thier insane Amara hatred, false pride and false dream to found another country later and bring ethiopia to disintegration.has led them to be hated by all of us.
that is envy of evil poletics.Ene kemotiku serdo aybkel.Abiy alouded you to get part no you was so arogant.
To be honst you have to lern by now.
Omg yes sir yes sir 🙌 🙏 👏 😍 👌 💪
@@xmediabox you really need to take a nap 😴
Thank you for this video, it easily would inform most people unaware of the situation. Sorry about the many Ethiopians bashing you in the comments! I’m worried my home country is falling to nationalism and are unable to adequately respond to the issues ethnic minorities are facing. However they seem to not get this will be their undoing unfortunately, kind of what we are seeing now.
Thank you so much. This is a situation that does need far greater international awareness.
And I really don’t mind about the comments. I’m starting to take a tougher approach on the really abusive ones, but I’ve also learned that the comments can actually be a really good way of reinforcing the message in my videos. There’s nothing more effective than exposing the problems of nationalism in a situation to then have the nationalists come in any make abusive comments. I’m finding more and more that this is a useful addition to the videos as it underscores the difficulties of a problem. This is exactly the same.
I wish you all my very best. It is a terrible situation Ethiopia and Tigray are facing. I just hope some sort of peaceful settlement can be found soon.
Wow ,what an excellent precise analysis and briefing .keep going
Thank you so much!
Great job James kir Lindsay for your great information.
Thank you very much. It is a truly tragic situation. Let's hope that a peaceful and acceptable solution, whatever it is, is found soon.
Excellent analysis and explanation on the situation. Would be really interested to read the other articles you have suggested in the description (very curious to know further as to how an Ethiopian withdrawal exacerbates the existing famine situation).
Thank you so much. Let's see how this plays out in the next few weeks. I was rather surprised at just how straight talking the EU and the United States have been on this.
Great explanation and in-depth analysis of the 4 options for Tigray to gain independence.
😂🤡
@@gooddaygoodnight8400 stfu
የ666 መንፈስ ተከዜ አይሻገርም በአባቶቼ ፀሎት ከተከዜ ማዶ ይቀበራል❗❗❗🇨🇬
@@masreshatrefeofficialtube9203 😂😂 fara gebere
@@vitaminprotein6878 ደደብ ተጋሩ
A deeply researched and well articulated Video. Thank you very much. This video have made things much clear for me. I will follow this channel from now on.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. (And thanks for the other comments.) I do try to say things as I see them and apply some broader concepts and ideas. I hope it helps. I know that not everyone likes what I have to say, but I don’t say it with malice or hatred, or with any hidden agenda. I’ve just spent several decades working on conflict and international relations and like to try to use that knowledge to perhaps explain world affairs in a way that is often missing from other channels. In any case, thanks so much again. And I look forward to your thoughts on other videos. Very best wishes from London!
Well analysised documentary, thanks chef.
Thank you very much indeed. I appreciate it.
@@JamesKerLindsay the population is not 11 million it’s about 5 million
keep going James
Thank you very much indeed.
Excellent analysis based on international practices and geopolitical realities on the ground. A must to watch for all parties. Thanks James
Thank you very much indeed. I appreciate it! Sadly, many of those upset don’t appear to have watched it in its entirety, let alone tried to understand what I was trying to say.
@@JamesKerLindsay too simplified
I do really agree with Henok. Thanks again James.
@@JamesKerLindsay Not that we don't understand what you're saying but what you don't know you don't know. You missing the truth and ignore to know. We were lucky we didn't fall under British like Bangladesh. Ethiopians seek popular constitution... not that provided by dictators with fales articles like the one you mentioned, article 39. "No culture can live if attempts to be exclusive " Mr. M. Gandhi
@@JamesKerLindsay Abiy supporters won't be satisfied till you toe their line and their version of the conflict. You see them attacking even international media for reporting objectively on Tigray. If they're upset with you, you probably did a good job.
Thank you James for a very good analysis..
Excellent analysis you always make it easy to understand for pointing deep issue thanks thanks James
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. It will be very interesting to see how this develops. I hope all is well with you.
Great analysis 💛❤️💛❤️
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. And please do consider sharing it with anyone else who you think might be interested.
Hi James, it’s good that you did a video about the Tigray people taking control of their capital city Tigray region so humanitarian groups can reach to the suffering women and children in Tigray region because since the conflict break out the government has refused the humanitarian assistance to more than 2 millions “IDPs” in Tigray region and the Ethiopian government is using famines as a tools for war in the area of Tigray.
James, do you think that Tigray defense force will accept the government ceasefire which Ethiopian government declared after they were defeated by the TDF?
Good Question
Defeat can not be considered as seas fire, real ceasefire came after dialogue, so there's no seasfire to be accepted by #TDF
Defeated by the TDF???😂😂😂
The Govt of Tigray have laid down their terms of agreement, if there was going to be any as "unilateral cease fire," is a laughing matter when it comes from the side that has been the sole instigator of all the atrocities committed against the innocent civilians of Tigray. As you noted, Abiy's military was defeated, but as you might have seen in various media accounts, Abiy and his people keep denying they were defeated.
Abiy had said that his force could get back to Mekelle anytime and take over if they wish to and it was because they wanted the farmers in Tigray could farm that they "left" Tigray, not because they were run off by TDF. Mind you they have done everything evil under the sun to keep the farmers of Tigray from farming from destroying their farm tools, seeds, and farm animals to burning their lands to chopping off their fruit and anything edible trees, destroying anything edible to starve them to death... They even have traumatized the farm animals by amputating their body parts one at a time vice killing them at once if they were going to eat them or something. The Shitopian and Eritrean troops cruelty had never been seen anywhere in the world as some genocide experts had said...
If Abiy has been a true peace seeker, he would not be denying Tigray the much needed humanitarian aid access, which he had from day one of the war. His army destroyed one of the major bridges in Tigray on their way out... Even yesterday, he had turned back aid trucks from Wello region that were on their way to Tigray from the British Govt. Most part of Tigray continue to be without power and communication services. The evil of this country Shitopia has no limit. I have a very difficult time calling this evil place by its name though I grew up half my life there... My hope and prayer is this hot mess comes to an end soon, so my people could get the much needed life saving humanitarian aid. We can then focus on the work of rebuilding, restoring, and healing lives of my beautiful Tigrayan people while the haters continue to simmer in their hate... It is by God's grace and the strength and the fighting spirit of TDF that we have been able to see the victory they won. It's my hope, prayer, and confidence that better days are ahead for Tigray and Tegaru. We've shown the world what we could accomplish when united and we will continue to do whatever it takes, from wherever we are to ensure Tigray's best Future. Thank you.
Thank you for the video!
Thank you! I appreciate the comment.
Thanks for the clear analysis. I hope you will follow up as the situation evolves, into peace agreement or otherwise.
Thanks. Yes, I will certainly follow the situation closely. It is an incredibly worrying situation. Many observers have likened it to Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. If it does collapse in the same way, the international effects will be catastrophic.
@@JamesKerLindsay Yeah, or like some Ethiopian scholars already warned in 2017 there is a risk that Ethiopia becomes this generation’s Rwanda. Nobody wants a world to watch and do nothing. Again thanks for a clear story, we need people like you to bring this to the attention of the real decision makers.
It is very important to disclose that you are paid to do this.
AMHARA always CRYING 😢😭 when you failed, TDF are lions 🦁
@@suraphelphilips677, checked out now
You are Typical amara!!!
@@Eri-Freedom sorry it wasn’t for you !
Right proud Amhara! We all know, TPLF won no war. Stop spreading intentional misinformation. No one is winning, we all are losing.
No matter what, TIGRAI will be an independent nation!!!
All Ethiopians are hoping for that.
@@Sarbet888 as an Oromo from Oromia state in Ethiopia, the largest ethnic group inside Ethiopia, I totally agree with you
@@hassanabdikarimmohamed2505
😂😂🤦🏿♂️ ileen sheegato haa tahay
@@jakobjama4612 meshaan gaal madow baan iska dhigay sidaan magaceena u qurxiyo
Won’t happen
Great video on a topic hard for outsiders to understand! I also noticed the production quality improvements. They are excellent and I hope they stay!
Thank you so much! I am really pleased that you like the improvements. I have been making quite a lot of changes. I wasn't sure if they had been noticed. But I did hope that the quality was steadily increasing.
A very good analysis . Keep on going.
Thank you very much indeed. I really appreciate it.
Thank you for explaining the options in a clear way! The quality of the videos has greatly increased and it is amazing to have witnessed this process!
Thank you so much Brian! I appreciate it enormously, especially as I know you have been a long time viewer. It means a lot. I have in fact been doing a lot to try to improve the quality of the videos and so it is really nice that it’s noticed.
I hope that all is well at your end. Have a great weekend.
🔥God Bless Abiy Ahmed ❤️ and ETHIOPIA 🇪🇹🔥
Tnx James, you are so an extraordinary politician man.
Thank you for your dep explanation!
Thank you!
Your analysis and recommendations at the end is so real, and only best solution practical! It is a good piece!!
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Despite a lot of negative comments (from a lot of people who I suspect didn't actually bother to watch the whole video), I did try to look at it from a realistic perspective.
Tigray will lose if they do not rethink their approach
Did u see what happened at the UNSC regarding the DAM?
The so called backer west flinched in a face of AN UNITED AFRICAN FRONT
By now Sudan and rubbish Egypt feel the isolation
They do not care for you
Profit over ur African body
Reflect on that
U understand
We African stand for a strong and united Ethiopia
Cheers from west Africa 👍🏿
@@criessmiles3620 Unity from a distance can prove much more productive.
For example, when two siblings grow up, they typically share a room.
After a certain point of time and conflict, they typically have separate rooms or move out to solve their conflicts.
Notice the two siblings typically are still united and in many cases more united when living or sleeping apart than in the same tight room at age 18.
@James, sorry you had to deal with this. Most Ethiopians only want to hear their own narrative. No candid discussion and compromise. No respect and they take everything personal. The political elite is the worst. No wonder we got where we are today.
You have no clue!!!!
Would you do a video on the role Egypt and the US is playing in instigating this conflict in order to gain leverage on the issue of the GERD? If anyone is being honest they would acknowledge the truth about their role in driving this conflict. It'll be a tough video for you considering, you'll get a lot of backlash from some powerful people but if you can be brave that would be awesome. Don't reply to me if you are going to lie about how you really feel their true role is.
Thank you. Fascinating suggestion. I will look into it. By the way, I actually keep an open mind about issues. When I do my videos I look at the evidence and then make up my mind. If I feel that one party is in the wrong, I will say it. And I have made a lot of videos critical of US and British positions. I like to think that I am independent minded enough to take an impartial view of situations and say things as I see them.
@@JamesKerLindsay Appreciate your reply. Awesome work. Looking forward to see if you bring it up in a future video.
Was it the Egyptian army that was massacaring Tigrayans on cliffs ?? Own your brutality don't blame everything on Egypt
@@ETHIOTECHJ There is no question Ethiopians lay part of the blame in what's taking place. Nobody is saying there is no culpability on the part of Ethiopians (both Tigrayans and the rest of Ethiopia), however, to pretend like Egypt has no culpability in what is taking place is ignorant, naive, and disingenuous. You don't need to protect Egypt to to satisfy your desire to blame the Ethiopian government for everything.
@@DWEthiopia there is a difference between culpability and scapegoat. Egypt has been sabotaging many things in Ethiopia for hundreds of years but the current situation is more to do with the current leadership and the populations silent stance at atrocious acts because they can not differentiate between TPLF and Tigrayans
Thank you James for your briefing!! Do you mind if you add more why the western countries are giving much more emphasis for this issue than any other states? there are many conflicts in Africa here and there? just to know your say. Thanks again James for your excellent presentation.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. And a great question. I suspect it’s getting so much attention because Ethiopia is so big and significant. It is now considered a major player in Africa, economically and politically. A conflict there can’t be ignored. Also, there is a realisation than if it collapses into a wider civil war, the effects will be devastating across the entire region and beyond. The potential of having to deal with tens of millions of refugees, many who would then try to make it to Europe, is something that just can’t be ignored. But I think there are other factors. In some ways, it is a ‘strange’ story. The Nobel Prize winner who has led his county into conflict. All this said, I think it is worth pointing out that while it is getting more attention than most conflicts in Africa, it is still largely unknown amongst the broader population. Very few ordinary people know about it, sadly.
Great video James. Can you speak a bit more about the third option? Or point to a video if you have before.
Thanks. I want to take a deeper look at the idea of de facto states. They are a fascinating phenomenon in international relations. I have written on them extensively. I have done a video on the topic already.
czcams.com/video/Kq_N-9bnB7I/video.html
I think the majority of Ethiopians would support an independent Tigray. Tigray has little resources and is mostly barren.
TPLF only wants independence if it means they have influence over Ethiopia and/or Eritrea. They ruled Ethiopia since 1991, they don't ever want to lose that privilege. If they have no friends, they will continue to terrorize the region until they are completely destroyed or if they overthrow either Eritrea or Ethiopia. That is the end game.
Thank you. I have heard a few people say that. It is interesting to hear. But isn't there also the fear that if Tigray goes, then others could follow?
@@JamesKerLindsay TIGRAI peoples can’t wait to get their independent !!!
Tigray is definitely not one of the most important regions in Ethiopia, economically speaking, especially in this ruined state. However, have you considered that many of them have married in to other ethnic groups in the country? I know lots of people born from these unions including friends, neighbors and even relatives. This may affect such people a lot and I don't want to lose some of my close Tegaru friends. But, if it means peace, why not arrange the referendum right at this moment?
@@michaelyeshiwas4855 let them Go !!! Why you guys are pulling them back ?
Thank you so much & Tigray will prevail 🇻🇳💪
TPLF is killer
Thank you. It is a truly tragic situation.
@@JamesKerLindsay hahahahaha 😂😂 don't worry Mr x fake news talk about for Hager people off tigray
@@abbyyene4048 Now the REVOLUTION is with TDF not TPLF
Society win always that's why they win in Short time.
Tigray will be hungry. Truth
Thank you so much 🙏🙏🙏
Thanks. I appreciate it. Do please share it if you know anyone who might be interested in seeing it.
Thank you
Wow! I must say that it's great to see how the quality of your videos has improved so much. Really happy and really proud!!
Thank you so much. That’s so wonderful to hear. Thanks for letting me know. I have been working on all sorts of elements. I did hope they were getting better. It’s been a very steep learning curve! And always so nice to see you comment. You’ve been here since early days. 😀👏 I hope all is well with you.
the government did not insisted they attacked they announced it on their own tv channel get you facts right first
He is not confuse or convince like you !!!
This may be the first time in history where a Nobel Peace Prize winner is also accused of genocide (Abiy Ali Achmed)
Indeed. It really is an extraordinary turn of events.
@@JamesKerLindsay This begs the obvious question though. Why did Abiy go to such great lengths to secure peace with Eritrea (to secure seaborne trade access for Ethiopia among other things) and then go on to fight a bloody civil war with the Tigray within Ethiopia who are ethnically the same people as the Eritreans?Why not agree on a date for the regional elections which was on paper the origin of the issue? Or is the conflict with Tigray based on deeper cultural issues such as the ethno-confessional differences between the nations in the Ethiopian Federation or is the root of the conflict ideological( the need for the national government to suppress a left-wing nationalist/communist TPLF by the Ethiopian national forces which by all indications the TPLF seem to want to establish a regressive DERG-Type regime in Tigray. Im trying to understand whether the root of the conflict is the growth of ethnonationalism in Ethiopia, whether the conflict is ideological (left/right) or confessional. We can only speculate whether Abiy feared that concessions to the Tigray would spark concessions to the Oromo and so on and so forth until Ethiopia would break apart into its 10 administrative regions. It seems to me that Abiy's attempts to centralize political power in a political party that crosses linguistic and ethnoconfessional lines was seen by the Tigray as an affront to their pre-planned attempt for independence or to Ethiopian Federalism. Which begs another question, who is supplying the TPLF? Is Beijing or Moscow providing arms to the TPLF? What would give the TPLF enough confidence to seek independence in a atmosphere when Ethiopia and Eritrea had just secured peace and at least formally allies?
This gentleman is impressively knowledgeable on the Tigray situation, and wise in his assessments.
He is impressive and knowledgeable not only on Tigray, but international relations. I started watching since his first video on Tigray back in Nov/Dec. I subscribed and promoted amongst my friends. Enjoyed his analysis every Friday.
Don't full yourself this is full of disinformation.
What do you think if eritrea gets a new government friendly to tigray real sson?
That could certainly change the situation dramatically. It doesn't look like it will happen soon though. But if it did happen it would certainly make an independent Tigray far more viable.
@@JamesKerLindsay why people like you always push for this kind of thing in Africa? Why?
Seriously, I didn’t create the situation. I just look at independence movements and conflicts. It is not my fault that there is an issue to try to explain. But that just all that I am doing. Trying to explain it, focusing on how developments fit into our understanding of international relations.
@@JamesKerLindsay if you are what you said you’re then maybe you should get your information from a real source then you wouldn’t mislead the rest of the world .
No hard feelings you are trying to make a living I just wish you do more research
@@JamesKerLindsay ok if that so why don't mention Egypt is the main orchestra for Ethiopia decentralization.... There is enough info about Egypt is behind for any conflict About Ethiopia
You explained it very well..thank you
Thank you. I'm glad it was helpful.
Nop, he missed the western Tigray controversy. He referenced it as sudan Tigray border which is not True, western Tigray is Predominantly Amharic speaking Amhara people.
Great explanation for both parties. Thank you James
Thank you so much! Yes, both sides are in a bit of a bind. It will be interesting to see if they can reach an agreement. They will probably need outside assistance, but it's not clear which organisation will try to take it on.
Very informative video, thank you James.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it, as always. I hope you are well.
@@JamesKerLindsay their are three way of speaking about same things tell the the truth, mix the truth with a lie and a tell a lie completely, the most convincing of them all if you have agenda is mix the truth with a lie you have done well doing so.
Whatever happens next should be thought through carefully at the negotiations table.
Evening. I completely agree!
Tigray will lose if they do not rethink their approach
Did u see what happened at the UNSC regarding the DAM?
The so called backer west flinched in a face of AN UNITED AFRICAN FRONT
By now Sudan and rubbish Egypt feel the isolation
They do not care for you
Profit over ur African body
Reflect on that
U understand
We African stand for a strong and united Ethiopia
Cheers from west Africa 👍🏿
@@criessmiles3620 Ethiopia will eventually collapse as a country, there is fighting in almost all regional states and the government of Abiy Ahmed is broke
@@criessmiles3620 While TPLF was Building the dam , Abiy Ahmed/now present prime minister/ was spying by supporting “Ginbot 7 party “ to destroy the dam .
@@criessmiles3620 The Westerners observed an African country moving to develop her nation, and they are now unable to control their anger. The Westerners always want to keep Africa underdeveloped, and in poverty; so that they can freely exploit the continent. I am proud Africans are standing by the side of Ethiopia. We Africans should always stand as one. Egypt is just a tool for Western powers. A tool to create chaos in Africa, Egypt is paid billions in the form of aid for this mission. Why the west donate all that military equipment to Egypt? they very well knew their donated weapons, will never be used against Israel. They give her to attack Subsaharan Africans like Ethiopia.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t Tigray People the same ethnic group as Tigrinya? If so why don’t the Tigray Region join Eritrea? Wouldn’t that solve the problem?
Thanks for another fascinating video. Which region of Ethiopia is the current government seen as closest to or is it broadly based? Is there any video or article that you know of that explains how the military situation reversed so quickly?
Hi Brendan, great questions. I haven't see a specific video on the military situation, but I would be keen to see something on this. If you do discover one on your CZcams travels please do let me know! In terms of the regions, Abiy himself hails from Oromo, spanning an arc across the south and west. I had seen reports that he is half-Amharan, but apparently he denies this. However, his wife is Amharan, for what that might - or might not - be worth.
Excellent analysis! What Ethiopian fed gov is doing to Tigray is horrifying!
Thank you. I completely agree. It is interesting to see how outspoken the EU and US have been about this. I thought the words by the EU's Crisis Management commissioner were extraordinarily strong by usual diplomatic standards. I saw that US Secretary of State Blinken was also very blunt with Abiy about the situation.
You are really misinformed!
Know your fact well before you utter nonsense. The federal government has done everything it could to serve the Tigray people. It is their deep racist attitude that led to the problem we are wittnesing now.
@@gseyoum1 right! now they are killing each other and none of their Diaspora families are barking like they used to do for nothing. They let TPLF kill their own family such ppl can never been Ethiopian
@@gseyoum1 do you consider rape, looting, mass murder, starvation as serving the people?? And don't bother lying anymore, we have families on the ground telling us exactly what's has been going on.
Very important information,, Mr James ker Linds. Thanks for all,, from berbera somaliland rep,,,
Thank you so much. Wishing you all my very best wishes from London. I hope all is well over there.
Thanks
Thank you!
tanks for the true information about tgray force power full we stand with tgray
Killer
But the Ethiopian government,the amhara militias & Eritrean committed crimes against humanity.they attached innocent civilians, we can't forget that
This is excellent and well balanced analysis.
So many comments that are basically shooting the messenger.
Interesting to see how many people get upset about a clear, impartial analysis of a situation because it doesn’t correlate with their particular sides way of thinking.
Mind you, if more people stopped and thought about in a clear manner, the world probably wouldn’t get into a mess like this in the first place.
I think they call a world like that Vulcan 😁
Great video as usual. I never understood the power Tigray hold over Ethiopia. Have they ever been independent?
Thanks. It all stems from their place in the civil war. They really did lead the effort. That seems to have put them in a commanding position at the start and then gave them a platform for promoting their own. It just seemed to become a self-perpetuating power. But that role in the war also indicated how tough they could be. It was never going to be as easy as many may have assumed.
@@JamesKerLindsay hey James. Have you checked out the reports about how the Eritrean army along with the Amhara militia & the Ethiopian national defense force were already penetrating inside Tigray before the attack on the military base? The Tigray gov called the Nov 4th attack a preemptive strike because the war was already underway.
@@beenknew7455 nope actually the TPLF attacked first (killed 600 troops)and the TPLF admitted to it because The federal government withdrew their military post on the border with Eritrea
You say TPLF won and you talk another thing. How can TPLF win with AK-47 while it lost the war when it had tanks,rockets ?
ENDF and EDF didn't have drones after UAE was sent packing by USA.
They had more than AK-47's. For example rocket launchers, machine guns, snipers, and military vehicles stolen from dead or captured ENDF soldiers. You can achieve a lot from guerrilla warfare. Just realize that the TPLF won't show everything they have in their arsenal on camera.
@@kassaiscool ድሮን የተገዛው ከጦርነቱ በፊት ነው ከuae የመጣ አደለም የተገዛ ሰሞን ከህዳሴ ግድብ ሊመጣ ለሚችል ነገር አርጎ ነበር ህዝብ ያሰበው ከዛ የትግራይ ክህደት ሲመጣ ተጠቀሙበት
@Ezra UAE drones disarmed TDF capabilities at the beginning of war, back in Nov. This is in addition to Eritrean forces full deployment in Tigray. TDF didn’t foresee that coming. They had to go to the mountains to reorganize themselves. They did reorganize and routed Abiy forces using his own weaponry. The Ethiopian force is decimated. Too many casualties and 8k POWs. Now TDF is in a much stronger position that it was pre-war. TDF leadership still calling for peaceful resolution. Sad Abiy is failed to understand not only his defeat, but where he is leading the country into- catastrophic disintegration- I hope, there still is some hope and it’s for Abiy to decide.
@@kassaiscool ከድሮን ውጪ የአየር ሀይሉም አለኮ መጠቀም አስፈላጊ ስላሎነ አልተጠቀሙም
ክላሽ ለያዘ አንድ ሰው የድሮንና የጀት ቦንብ ሊጠቀሙ አይችሉም አስፈላጊ ከሆነ ግን አሁንም ይጠቀሙታል
ሲቀጥል አልተበደሩም ግዢ መፈፀሙን ከጦርነቱ በፊት ተነግሮል የተገዛው ደሞ ከየት እንደሆነ አላቅም
First time that a video of yours beings with a slideshow, nice change and nice video, also given that this is the day itself, Happy 10th Anniversary of the Independence of South Sudan!
Thank you so much Roger. Yes, I decided to see how a slightly different opening would work. I've been making quite a lot of little changes to the videos in recent weeks. (I removed the introduction music. I liked it, but it was an extra bit of time. At the same time, I added some very light background music and sound effects. I have made a couple of changes with the lighting. And invested in some new software. I have also been really tough on the editing of the scripts to shorten them a bit.) Hopefully, it is all improving the quality. And, as always thanks so much for the comment. And have a lovely weekend!
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you! I like these changes, have a nice weekend as well!
James, I trust u more than any news source. u have a deep understanding of the world political rift with no special interest. kudos to ya
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it! I do put in a lot of research into the videos and use a lot of sources. But I always try to verify things as much as I can.
@@JamesKerLindsay
Thank you very much. u deserve an award. I have watched most of your videos and love em all
power to TDF.. honestly its very impressive what they're able to accomplish
Why is it impressive? All they do is coddle the West for assistance to help destabilize the Horn of Africa. Getting help from the most powerful countries in the world and still getting defeated in many battles is a disgrace.
Fighting while hiding among civilians is not impressive
@@DWEthiopia maybe if Endf and eritrean troops didn't focus Soo much energy on fighting civilians since they're cowards and love destroying crops/ factories, schools, water supply, killing animals and Wonder why Tigrayans need assistance from the west.
@@abel3694 they never won anything where you guys when they were third and why ask for a ceasefire to Amhara and Eritrea
Best thing TPLF & supporters did was roll over like donkeys in the streets of LA and crying help!🤔
James, What you have stated make sense. Unfortunately, logic doesn't fly for Ethiopian politicians and too much damage has already been done by the war. The peace deal might work if their is a change in leadership on both sides, i.e. on TDF and the central government. Observing the way the war has been transpired, with much brutality and cruelty, I am not so sure if the government really interested in the united Ethiopia in current form. Thank you for your analysis.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Sadly, I get the sense that you are absolutely right. It is hard to see a peace deal emerging and then sticking. But any move towards independence by Tigray will have to be extremely carefully managed. Isolation would be potentially disastrous. I cut it out from the final video, but I compared it with nearby Somaliland. It has been isolated for 30 years, but has access to the sea and international airspace. This is key.
hii From Tigrians,Continue To report
Please make a video about Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Thanks. I have been meaning to for ages. They are on my rather long list of topics to cover.
Woow this guy really knows about Ethiopian politics. Well explained!!
Thank you so much. I have been following the situation for a while now. It is such a tragedy to see unfolding. And I remember thinking at the end of last November that the conflict was not over. The question now is what happens next. What is your sense?
You have no clue.
@@JamesKerLindsay please read real history books. Come and see and interview firsthand witnesses before you make a video based on internet and social media garbage.
Tigrays population is 6 million not 11 million
Thanks. Yes, I realised. I should have got that right. I covered it in previous videos. The problem of trying to juggle too much information. Thanks for noting it.
Actually just did another check. It is currently in the region of 7.1 million. Still a bit off 11 million but not disastrously so.
@@JamesKerLindsay Actually, you are so correct. 6 mln is a long time ago.
Tigray always win and will keep prevail until our enemies destroyed
Exactly 💯
If the government of Ethiopia closes borders and lays siege over Tigray, blocking food and other necessities from coming in, it could be argued that they have then forgone on the duty of care that every government is obligated to show. This would bolster the idea of a unilateral humanitarian remedial secession.
Yes. Given that the EU and the US have already heavily criticised Ethiopia over this, there would seem to be a good case. But it would be an absolutely huge step in international relations.
after all who are you to talk about Ethiopia?
This is not a true . Please don’t provide misleading information. U don’t have any idea u are far from it. Just to collect money from CZcams? shame on you!
ሳይፈተሽ አይገባም ተፈትሾ መርዳት የፈለገ ግን መልሰን አናቅም እሱን ደሞ በደንብ ታቁታላቹ 8 ወር የትግራይ ህዝብን 80% የመገበው የኢትዮ መንግስት ነው
#tplf better to surrender for the time being. they don't have borders at all they annexed humer while they are in power TPLF displaced and murdered lots of people just because of their identity. Am sorry about what happened to Tigray people but this is karma just swallow it. Peace for all🇪🇹 I can see this report is biased and lacks basic information on the ground.
I respect your views and the options that you recommended to solve the Ethio-Tigran problem, except for two incorrect pieces of data that you provided to your viewers. First, the Tigray population is not 11 million; it is approximately 6 million (or 5.3 percent of Ethiopia’s population overall). Second, Tigray is not bordering Sudan. To clarify, as you said, when the Tigran took power, they controlled almost all central government positions. Through that power, they forced the annexation of Amhara’s historical territories for the following 29 years while undertaking a mass killing, displacement, and deprivation on economic, social, political, and cultural activities of the area. The atrocity in that area has never been before and will never be again.
Thank you 🙏🏼
Mr James is intentionally misleading people.He is ignorant to reality and history … He can’t even respond to your comment 😂
@@fetsum5751 he knew he is Typical amara !
@@fetsum5751 No surprise, he is a paid propaganda mouthpiece for the TPLF mafia group.
@Berhanu stop deception! We all and the IC know #Tigray bordering Sudan. I don't even go back to 100s years history. You can't lie your way out. Negotiation, and in thorough accountability is the only way out.
@@Daniel-fe5pd The only way out is Tigray declaring Independence.
Educational, thank you.
Thank you!
Thank you a lot.. I really listen to and love your analysis. Look, why don't you also talk about Somalia's elections and its new dictator in the making?
Thank you so much. Great suggestion. I do keep an eye on developments. My main focus is on international relations, so let me see if there is a good angle I can take on this.
Don't worry. Farmaajo is not coming back. He is gone forever. He was stopped by force. Somalis will never put up another dictator. We have paid a price by tolerating unstable and chaotic governments over a dictator or authoritarian system until we find out what what system is suitable to Somalis.
Thank you very much.
Thanks. It is an incredibly important situation, as well as a humanitarian tragedy. It really does need to be understood more widely.
@@JamesKerLindsay True. Thank you very much. I learn a lot from you.
flee what? people like you were telling the military to leave for unhindered humanitarian aid now they left the region and you are telling us they lost a totally wrong statement.
Do you think Tigray would be better off on its own or inside Ethiopia. You mentioned that the peace agreement is the most logical solution (and, of course, peace is always the answer), but what I wonder is whether the concessions Tigray would have to make wouldn't destabilize the reagion.
God bless you
Tigray Independence is next!!! And I can’t wait. We Tegaru don’t want to be associated with genocide deniers.
Tigray will lose if they do not rethink their approach
Did u see what happened at the UNSC regarding the DAM?
The so called backer west flinched in a face of AN UNITED AFRICAN FRONT
By now Sudan and rubbish Egypt feel the isolation
They do not care for you
Profit over ur African body
Reflect on that
U understand
We African stand for a strong and united Ethiopia
Cheers from west Africa 👍🏿
@@criessmiles3620 That is a separate issue, Tigray has already decimated Ethiopian military. It’s funny how Abiy & Isaias thought they could defeat Tigray. You were defeated, period. Eritrea @ Amhara militia couldn’t even save Abiy. There is no way to spin it. Tigray is just securing the final few areas now. If a “loss” was ever in the fold, it would’ve happened months ago.
Unfortunately you see the sky in smell dot.
Yes, I believe the majority of Ethiopians will support the independence of the barren Tigray region.
DaChamps15
Don’t ever think what the other side will lose. Just think the Reality that how in your right mind Tigray could be country at its own. Scientifically that is not possible. As we talk Tigray already is out of food and basic necessity for its citizens. While the whole world is integrating and United, on the other hand you want to be independent and live in Stone Age. ✌🏼
Tigray had no border with the Sudan before the minority Tigre regime took power in Addis. It forcefully annexed northern parts Amara and committed horrific crimes against the Amara people to whom the lands rightfully belongs too.
pls make a video about afganistan next
Thanks. I have been thinking about this. Let me see what I can do.
@James are you a journalist humantrian aid UN council NGO etc would you identify your self?
Thanks. Just look at my profile. It’s all there. I am an academic who works on conflict and secession. I’ve written extensively on these issues. There’s no ulterior motive. I just try to explain situations as I see them and try to relate them to our understanding of key concepts in international relations. There’s no hidden agenda. Look at my other videos. You’ll see all sorts of others who like or dislike my views. I promise I’m not pursuing a particular grudge against Ethiopia.
Would you do a video on afghanistan ? I think doing videos on current topics like the tigray crisis and the usa leaving afghanistan will really help grow this channel.
Thanks. Great suggestion. I have certainly been thinking about it. I just want to try to take an interesting angle that can relate to broader issues.
@@JamesKerLindsay indias role will be interesting in the future
Yes, we should all focus on growing the channel not on the quality of the content😂
@@HenokBekele his quality is decent anyway, no need to mention it.
@@JamesKerLindsay A good way to link it to the present crisis and the last decades of instability and ethnic tensions could be the Pashtun irredentist / secessionist movements on both sides of the border with Pakistan. I am not an expert but If I recall correctly there is some interesting history to cover.
I truly hope for the upcoming videos that you can in depth about the formation of tplf and it's doing for the past 27 years of ruling Ethiopia in an ethnically divided Federation how it gained its power.
And also, the Amhara elites did for the past 70 or so did right? Like haile slassie, menelik, mengestu did to our people.
@@atakilti75 none of them represented or said they were Amharas...they were just Ethiopias and what ever u think equal power between the ethnicities and tplf didn't want that. They wanted to suppress oromos Amharas and even tigrayans, and let me tell u they're never have this country back!
@@tigistbelay1877 if they oppressed tigray then why do lot of tigrayan support them lol you day they oppressed tigray make no sense maybe for amhara and oromo but not for tigrayan in my perspective even agaw both people seem to be huge supporter tigray being n1 of course.
Ethiopia will be Ethiopia forever 🇪🇹
11mill people?!
Where did brought this data?
Thanks. Yes, I realise it is 7.1 million. Apologies. Silly mistake as I’ve covered Tigray in other videos.
i love you tgiray
I’ve been following this conflict for a couple of years and very closely in the last year. This is probably the most accurate depictions of what is going on in Ethiopia. Much better than VOX, Vice, CNN, Al Jazeera… and so on. I however have a issue with this video, it is the fact that TPLF was not only a regional government. It ruled the country for 30 years with iron fist. It had committed many many atrocities to the Ethiopian people, looted the country bare, genocide of the Amhara people in wolkite, and imprisoned many political oppositions. They were labeled a terrorist organization in 2014 by the United States, and 2020 by Ethiopian government. These are not good people! It is also not a claim but a fact that they attacked and looted dozens of military bases in the northern command on November 4th and slaughtered over 600 military personnel without provocation. This started the Ethiopia. national defense to mobilize to Tigray in defense of its people. THIS HAS TO BE SAID!
Thank you very much indeed. Yes, I didn't go into enough detail on this. I did cover it in previous videos, but even then perhaps without enough emphasis on the TPLF position in the Ethiopian state and the way that it was able to perpetuate its power over almost thirty years. Point well taken.
@@JamesKerLindsay regardless, excellent report!!
Do I remember when I told u the day rule of law started which is not about rule
I like you ... You are not like the others who took side I look forward to see more of your video's
Thank you. I really appreciate it.
Great quality work as usual! The steps you laid out are on point. I prefer both parties go for ‘peace agreement’. But that’s unlikely since Abiy Ahmed has committed all kind of atrocities on the people of Tigray by colluding with Foreign forces and the Amhara vigilante militia. Has Abiy been matured as the TDF leadership, things could deescalate. I don’t see that coming. Thank you 🙏 for covering this and please keep an eye especially on the humanitarian blockade and its consequence for country’s territorial integrity
11 million is way inaccurate. They are no more than 6-7 million.
Thank you. I know it was on the high side and that th figure is 7 million. I covered it in another video (several actually) and so knew the number. I just made a brief mistake. Then again, if this is the most serious mistake in the video it rather says that my analysis was good.
@@JamesKerLindsay no doubt that the over analysis was excellent & very balanced.
@wise Don't be ignorant 25 years ago we were told they were 5 million. I'm pretty sure they are more than 10 million by now!
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia there is nothing Democratic about Ethiopian history for the past 2000 years.
Until now
We need an update
You are the only one who is telling the real satuation on the ground in tigrai at the moment
Greater Somalia 🇸🇴
Greater Somalia🇸🇴. No Ictiraaf
Many Ethiopian and current leaders of Ethiopia betrayed Tigria people. Shameful. Ultimatly Tigria will not lose. Ethiopia already lost. Lost Tigria, Lost history, lost dignity and respect.
Who decided on the name Tigria?
Thank you James for this information. It is very important that UN and other member nations come to the realization that countries come as the years roll up. We don't have any reason to be kill our brothers over a call of Independence of a Nation! UN mist review her stands on this independence seeking issues and must be clear on the sovereignty of member nations. What's happening is unfortunate and peoples right must be recognized and respected! No African nation can boast of owning a Nation, all were as a result of colonial decision and we must realized that.
Dear James Ker-Lindsay before you come up with such a kind of analysis, do you have any clues about what looks like the Map of Ethiopia before 1991?
Tigrayans are a living Weapons the world ever seen & unstoppable!!!! I wish to see things resolve through peaceful dialogue for the sake of all people's in Ethiopia, but there's no doubt that Tigrayans will walk out of this crisis Winners on both directions.
I wonder if you ever set foot in Ethiopia!!
Tigray we pray for you, peace in Ethiopia
What is sudans position in all of this?
Very good question. I must take a deeper look at all this. I can imagine that it is deeply concerned as there are now many tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of refugees on its territory.
This analysis seems good but lack somehow a balancing information from Ethiopians, other than TPLF supporting Tigre.One of my friend said "I do not understand why most TPLF supporting Tigrians want to live out of Tigray ( in other part of Ethiopia) but have an independent Tigray as a country.They are biased because they know or afraid if they are independent, they cannot feed themselves. On the other hand if they accept to live as part of Ethiopia equally with other Ethiopians, they think they are undermined to the point of death. They always undermine other Ethiopians. This is what their ancestors taught them and they are passing this philosophy to their next generation. Now the Federal Government is giving them a chance to meditate to choose between having an everlasting poor independent country and a prosperous Tigray region living equally with other Ethiopian brothers. I wish they live with us as Ethiopian brothers." Please comment on my friend suggestion.
TYPICAL amara!
we choose independence
The analysis is superb.keep up
Your comment contradict itself...deep down you have hate for tigray
No more with ethiopia Tigray is arepublic