World Cup penalty kicks, tracked
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- čas přidán 23. 11. 2022
- If you watch hundreds of kicks, it’s possible to make some conclusions.
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A World Cup penalty kick shootout can be one of the tensest ways to end a match. But where’s the best spot to place a kick?
Data scientist Pablo López Landeros pored over hundreds of kicks and tracked where keepers dove, where players kicked the ball and, most importantly, when they scored a goal. As the above video shows, the results provided some conclusions - and also raised some questions about the best spot for a penalty kick.
Further Reading:
www.kaggle.com/datasets/pablo...
Check out Pablo’s dataset above, as well as some of the visualizations built off of it.
bleacherreport.com/articles/2...
Histories of the Panenka kick, like the above, are a good way to waste the afternoon.
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Fans don't say penalty shotouts are a coin flip because they think there's a 50-50 chance of scoring a goal... What they think is a coin flip is who wins the penalty shootout.
which is why as an american, this just helps the stereotype that Americans know nothing about football (except me, c'mon city!)
Yeah, don't know how that obvious point sailed over their head like a Panenka kick.
Lol I didn't even get it when it was mentioned because of how well-known I thought this was.
I didn't get it.. Can you elaborate?
@@Kunaaaaallll Majority of fans know that, in a penalty, it's more likely to goal than to miss. That's why football fans were angry when a player miss a penalty or provokes a fault in the area. But a penalty shootout is about who team makes more blunders and that's more random and fair. It's like in lottery is easier to fail than to win, but who wins is random. The goals in the penalty shootout not even counts for the statistics.
"Ultimately, the penalty kick is a head game. Which brings us back to Zidane" I see what you did there
Actually P kicks are a little bit different now since FIFA instituted and started enforcing the rule that the keeper had to keep his feet on the goal line until the ball is struck. This has caused the save percentage of P kicks to go down. Professional keepers have said with the current rules a P kick should never be missed and are only missed because of blunders.
name me one professional keeper who said that
@@RealTaIk Ben foster has said it numerous times.
@@Valpo2004 any1 else?
@@Valpo2004 if he said that numerous times then why can't I find literally anything about this?
Now?
That rule is older than me.
The thing is, putting it on the corner is obiously the best option, but also the hardest to pull off. Some kickers would rather play it safer by kiking it to the Center or just guess the side and hit it safely
but if they are supposed to be the best players in the world and paid a lot of money to do it. maybe putting it in the corner shouldnt be a difficult thing for them to do.
@@greennature3647 it is when your whole country is watching and pending on you. Imagine the preassure, no amount of practice or money can makes nerves go away completly
exactly, it's such an obvious assumption I'm surprised they don't mention it in the video
@@greennature3647a lot of professional players are terrible penalty kickers. Therefore I’m not really surprised to se the majority of players playing it safe by using a low kick to the corner. The thing is, that kind of kick is easier to pull off with a lot more force
@@greennature3647 Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that it still is
After Zidane's "greatest penalty of all times" France proceeded to lose the World Cup in a penalty shootout
Without Zidane
And they lost because Trezeguet tried to shoot high and hit the post, as Zidane did.
Poi neanche è sto gran cucchiaio quello
again
And they did again in 2022
Having been part of penalty shootouts, top corner is the riskiest, seeing that you need to control elevation and the width of your shot. They pay off because if you strike a good shot top corner, even if the keeper dives correctly they probably won't save it. Keepers generally don't dive expecting a top corner shot.
@The Guy who said to high and you miss the goal, to low and is just about the height the keeper usually dives
Would have loved to see success percentage for each 9 zone providing the shot was on target. I suspect the top 3 zones would be near 100% success rate.
Idk about the top center zone because it's easy enough to save if the keeper stays home and the Paneka kicks could even be considered top central when they cross the line. However the top corner shots are nearly impossible to save if they are on target. Problem of course is a lot of players miss while trying to aim there.
@@Valpo2004 ...but the keeper only stays "central" 13% of the time and I suspect that the majority of the time they aren't standing up when they do. So hitting the target high and central is going to be upwards of 90%, if you hit the target high, central and hard I bet you're looking at something like 95%.
An easy way to prove this is simply to try and find a penalty save from a keeper when the ball goes high down the middle. They just don't exist.
The problem is hitting the target and that if you do this a few times, you'll become predictable...
Yes they would be Unless that zone accounts for shots blown over or ones that hit the post & go out in the zone. Then it would probably be like 40% lol
@@mannynd that is what is shown in the video. I'm talking about percentage for shots on target only
Isn’t that what they’re showing at 3:08?
Can't believe you guys didn't touch on this. Sure, top-right corner is 88% effective WHEN THE BALL IS ON TARGET, but it's a SUPER RISKY shot, and the kicker will be prone to miss either high or wide. The real stat should be effectiveness (goals) from EFFORTS at top-right corner, which will either be goal, stopped by goalie, or miss high or wide. The stat will be much lower. This is why shooters go for lower left and lower right - they are MUCH EASIER to hit accurately, as you won't miss high (or low due to ground) and need only to worry about missing wide.
To be fair, it would be impossible to determine from observation where the kicker MEANT to kick it
Vox is known for nuance and not packaging in eye catching material into a 5 minute video.....🧐
@@ryancaton6741 with highly skilled athletes like those in the world cup you could make an assumption about where they are trying to go
This has been studied before, the best spots are the corners, as if the velocity of the ball is correct the ball will reach its destination before the goalkeeper, even if the goalkeeper jumps in the correct direction. Then there was Garcia Aspe, always shot the ball in the same spot, but the kick was so hard the ball would always get in as the goalkeeper would have no time to react.
There's also Lewandowski, who developed an unsaveable penalty technique where he stutters and quickly looks back up to see which direction the keeper is preparing to dive, then goes for the opposite direction to the one the keeper is preparing.
For whatever reason, he recently decided to change his penalty technique and had his last 2 penalty shots saved. Yeah, let's not talk about that...
@@GTAVictor9128 I don't think Lewandowski invented the keeper-dependent technique...Neymar does it too, and so do hundreds of other players.
@@GTAVictor9128 sometimes you suddenly can't do things because of pressure
"That game with oblong brown ball" 😂 you earned my respect 👍
Handegg.
@@JonMartinYXD 🤣💀
I think the percentage only tells part of the story. The top right players rarely go for because it's an easy shot to misjudge for a right footer, missing the goal or that area all together.
Perhaps if it was a sample size of a fixed number for all areas, that might give a fairer picture.
For a better understanding of the placement of the shots, I also think they should have separated which foot the shot came from. I would suggest that left footed players tent to place the ball in the right side and vise versa. - And as there are more right footed players in general in football it would impact the result substantially.
@@Rene00Thomsen The tendencies are actually the other way around. Players have a tendency to avoid shooting cross body. The idea behind this is the player making the shot more like a hard pass to the bottom corner. This results in a higher likelihood of right-footed shooter shooting right and vice versa.
This, the research was done right, but the conclusion don't.
Right footers are way more common than left footers with probably explain why the most popular zone is also the easiest.
Everybody who plays often knows that, so goal keepers tend to jump more to the lower left corner.
At the same time, is way harder for a right footer to hit the right top corner, thus a riskier move. I think the video approach of the subject was like if humans had a precision aim with the foot, like if we could always hit exactly where we want
Vox and football content these days is so unexpected but it is really good😂👏❤️
What's even crazier is the amount of people from the U.S i've seen on social media talk about football.
Johnny Harris is better
I love that you didn’t say soccer
@@vincentr3425 for asSOCiation football? In English, football generally just refers to the most popular sport in the region. This is why there is Gaelic, Australian, and gridiron (US/Canadian) football. And yes, association football, nicknamed soccer ages ago.
@@jean-pierre5221 real football, not soccer.
5:02 When you don't want to start an argument over which sport "football" refers to
As a Czech Im proud you mentioned Panenka in your video, he is a legend here.
Hi,
I mentioned this in your recent short, and I wanted to mention it here, because I think it is worth to look at:
Consider which goal was chosed, i.e. if winning or loosing depends on if the fans behind the goal was from the same team or not, I suspect this would have a huge effect.
Since 2016 it was determined by a coin toss, and I think that single coin toss can determine result of the game.
i would have loved to see more of this topic. it seems you guys did a lot of data collection and research, but i feel like what you presented was quite limited.
Expected a lot better from you guys. No mention of variation by footedness or a graph showing %s based on the ball actually being on target... also no one says its a 50/50 whether the ball goes in, they say that about who wins the shootout. Really poorly done but I have come to expect it.
The title of this video was changed. It used to be "how to aim a penalty kick" and now it's "world cup penalty kicks, tracked."
Vox turning into a Fifa youtuber now😭
Content is king
just following World Cup fever I guess
There are 5 billion users on average watching the World Cup. Take advantage of the viewers at this time for content
İn addition to being one of the best penalties ever taken, it was also one of the most unjust penalties ever given. The dive that caused the penalty was actually incredible.
Thanks Vox! I have a penalty kick tomorrow morning and haven’t had the time to study!
Is that you Cristiano?
You should check Uruguay vs Ghana at South Africa 2010. The last penalty was shot by Sebastian "Loco" Abreu. Many times before he did the same panenka style shot and he repeated once again.
not just the red card and goal for zidane but also a legendary goalkeeper save by gianluigi buffon one of the best goalies
You guys should see Postiga penalty against England in the Euro 2004. The Panenka emotional effect within the teammates who are going to shoot a penalty next is still underlooked. That penalty gave Portugal the win.
One of the greatest penalty kicks by one of the greatest player against one of the greatest goalkeepers in a WC final. What a match
Came here after the Argentina Vs Croatia Semifinal and Messi just scored a penalty in the top right corner! 🇦🇷
Majestic! 👑
5:03 is an under appreciated moment in this video for me as someone from the 🇬🇧
that penalty was pure genius. didn't even touch the net
No striker intends to hit the cross bar like that. He wanted to put it upper net because he thought the goalkeeper would dive first. Had he placed it any higher he would have missed it completely and no striker should intentionally risk those odds - it was a mistake that is somehow hailed as intentional.
"That game with the oblong brown ball"😂😂
Often it's the easy-ness is what makes it so epic. A top player cannot miss, the whole nation is watching.. a few seconds from now you will be either the national hero, or the one person that ruined it for everybody. The mind games that are going on between the keeper and player.. the little rituals that lots of fans have to cope with the tension. Although it's not the most elegant way to decide a match it certainly drives up the emotions.
As a casual viewer I was always secretly hoping the match would end this way.
Very few players dare to target the right/left top corners, 'cause the risk to send it on the bar, up or out is much higher and they also have to send it high enough to avoid goalkeepers to reach the ball (the middle hights are the easiest ones to cover for a Gk) . it's basically the difference between derossi's goal and trezeguet miss in 2006 wc final: both nearly perfect, just with a 5/6 cms difference. so it's not enough to say ''players should consider top corners more'', cause it implies you're good enough to put it there, which considering the amount of pressure they have in those situations, it's never an easy choice.
There are more right footed kickers than left. And it is easier to hit a fast shot by wrapping your foot around the ball and aim to the left than opening up your foot and aim to the right. And the higher you kick, the harder it is to control. So that’s why bottom left is the most popular. Because finally if you hit the ball fast enough away from the centre, you have a better chance of the ball going in than aiming for the top right. The reason why save percentages for top right are lower is because only the best players ever attempt those
They were literally butting heads that year.
Enjoyed this video more than I thought I would
I don’t know if it was the greatest penalty kick of all time the one from Zidane but I know for sure that it was a night to remember for us Italians. I remember like it was yesterday the final of the World Cup 2006 😎
And us French still hate Materazzi for it
It was a terrible penalty kick, he was lucky it went in. One or two inches higher and it would've bounced back without scoring. Forza Italiaaaa
@@paulfeu c'mon man in every football game players say bad words to each other if your captain during a World Cup Final could not remain calm for an insult at his sister it is only his fault ;)
@@ClearLakeCommunityWatch I agree with you but in this video they are sayind that it was the best one. from my point of view it was a risky shot that could have easily bounced back, better to shoot like Grosso ;)
@@TommasoPuccioni If zidane remained calm we would have win
love this video as a data analyst
someone should share this to Lewandokski from Poland
Or Davies from Canada
Ochoa is a fantastic gk that can reach lower corners of the net without having to guess first. Lewandokski just needed to hit it faster and he still would have made it (see Gareth bale's pk against the American keeper)
I do think the statistics are super interesting but I think there’s so much to a penalty kick outside of numbers. Like you said at the end it’s a massive mind game between player and keeper, the atmosphere of the stadium, the way the match was up to the penalty kicks, experience and age of players. Also I feel goalkeepers don’t get enough credit as there is a method to predicting shots, a lot is statistics but even on the day a lot get saved by last minute clever decisions from keepers. It’s what makes a panenka so risky look at Agueros failed one, it happened because the keeper realised in time and was able to stop themselves fully diving to come back and catch the floating ball. While I do think there is so much down to statistics there is also a level of human chaos that has to can’t be accounted for.
I can believe that 2010 WC PK Loco Abreu vs Ghana didn’t make it to this video.
Thank you very much, Roberto Baggio. 🥳🏆🇧🇷
I wish Japan would have watched this before todays game
OMG YES. I don't get why 3 guys all kicked low and to the left. Aim for the top corners!!
@@iMassimod Top is scary because you can miss much easier
Also got to consider at the top level keepers study thier oppositions penalty history so sometimes the best bet is to just switch it up every time
Helps decide a game in the event of a tie only on an elimination game not any game.
Good to see Vox introducing US citizens to this sport that most don’t care about. Penalties tend to be more psychological than statistical, i recommend watching Messi’s last penalty and how he waits for the keeper to dive before he decides to shoot (knowing he was less experienced than him).
So good to see czechoslovakia as a slovak. I rarely see at least a part of my country on the internet.
Oh man those soccer figurines pretty back memories from my youth! What are they from? My older brother had some and never had a clue what they came from.
There's also the game theory approach which would say that if it becomes common knowledge that the right side is undervalued, then after a while the odds would even out.
The game with the oblong brown ball. That's what the official name should be.
Secret Base Rewinder vibes. Here for it.
One statistic I would have liked to see explored more is footedness and where the ball is likely to be shot given a players footedness and also its effect, if any, on which way a keeper is likely to dive. Two new breakdowns of the goal rate of each zone by footedness would be fascinating
Right footed players more likely to hit it left. Left footed more likely to hit it right.
@@George-li1yv that is my suspicion as well, it would just be interesting to see it reflected in the data and the implications discussed
I will never forget Di Maggio shooting straight over the crossbar at the USA '94 World Cup.
Thanks VOX, I will try out the advice in the next FIFA World Cup (2026) ☺👍
This is great ✨
me as a GK i aldready knew but thx for spreadin the info
Totti 2000, Zidane 2006 and Pirlo 2012 Those are the best spoons i can remember of
I think he got just lucky with that penalty.
2006 is the best world cup for France, the best goals, the best games, even if we loose it.
Zidane at his top level 4 games in a row, against the best teams.
"... that game with the oblong brown ball"
I wholeheartedly disagree with the coin flip analogy, penalty shootouts factory in the skill of the players, the keeper, controlling mental pressure and so on. You can't say a Penalty shootout between Brazil and say Comoros have a 50% going for Comoros.
All these football related videos are great
That 88% probably has to do more with the fact that most shoot with the right foot and it’s an easier shot when you have to run to the ball(usually from the left, to use the right foot).
Something that I didn’t see taken into account is the fact that shooting the ball to the top right is by far the hardest place to shoot for a right footed player, so the % of misses is much higher if you take into account chances that missed the goal
Why isn't anybody talking about how goalies are trained to guess the direction of the kick looking at the foot of the kicker? It's very important in today's day when a goalie can watch all the foot+kick of any particular opposing player before the game, by viewing videos of games played and penalty kicks taken to anticipate what the kick would be when the foot looks directed a particular way. Players can be pretty predictable that way.
Jens Lehman in World Cup 2006:
Let me see my note first
another goal for phil edwards🎉⚽️
How do I get this dataset? Would LOVE to play around with it.
As a goalkeeper, I believe left corner (goalkeepers left) is very tough to save.
Depends on velocity of the ball - alot of goalkeepers guess before the ball is kicked which screws them. If you don't guess it becomes much easier. Unless it's a rocket. In which case you had no chance anyway
Probably depends on if the goalkeeper is left or right handed.
@@MoeSzyslak20 sometimes diving on my left is a bit unconfortable but i dont think there is a disadvantage
@@MoeSzyslak20 yes, most goalkeepers are right handed, like me
Can you please post the dataset, I love to take a look
❤ Wow! Never seen such a thing before!
lol
Ini sama halnya ketika saya memainkan acara tendangan pinalti di game top eleven, saya mencatat bahwa para pemain memilih tendangan kanan terlebih dahulu jika pemain tersebut memiliki nama akun orang Asia- amerika sedangkan 50-50 untuk pemain yang berasal dari eropa. Sedangkan tendangan ke tengah hanya dilakukan oleh gol penentuan atau orang yang juga mencatat kebiasaan para lawan sebelumnya.
classic random Vox video - I love it
Best midfielder of all time vs the best goal keeper of all time, I remember it like it was yesterday, genius football.
Both debatable. And Buffon wasn't good at saving penalties.
I think you forget that math dont shoot a PK, people with a favourite foot do. That means its a lot easier for a right foot player (wich most players are) to kick the ball hard and with accuracy on the left side, without revealing their intended target.
I’m my opinion, keepers like myself commonly dive right because most keepers are right footed. They can propel themselves further by leaping of their dominant foot, most likely the right, to the bottom right of their goal
Plus the majority of players are right-footed and will tend to shoot to the right of the gk as well, since that's the easier corner.
I'm sending this video to Lewandowski
Materazzi on the headbutt:
“After the third clash, I frowned and he retorted: 'I'll give you my shirt later'. I replied that I'd rather have his sister than his shirt.
Kinda disappointed. After mentioning keepers guessing a side, I was hoping to see data on keepers who waited.
You should do more football content
Top corners will almost always go in. But they are risky shots as there is a possibility of going high or wide
nice video, but all learned this at age 5 on our rec soccer teams..
The places Goalies jump to and players shot into has to do with being right footed or left footed.
It is easier for right footed players to shot in the left and vice versa for lefties
for Goalies it is easier for them to jump on their right hand than their left hand
No way Zidane’s penalty kick was the greatest of all times. He hit the post and was lucky that the ball fell inside the goal line. Having said that, he was a football genius and one of the few brave souls who would try a Panenka kick in the world cup final.
That's exactly what makes it the greatest of all time though. But objectively he was probably going for what Benzema did against Man City, a high chip. He just kicked it a bit harder than intended probably due to adrenaline.
No world cup final should ever end in Penalty Kicks
Just like what Supa Strikas have taught me. When they need to beat the greatest goalkeeper of all time, they figured out that the right or left corner is the best option
I like how Fox focuses on content instead of minutes...
FIFA + dude has every WC game… also Dive is aligned with handedness….😊
Very interesting video, good job guys 👍
In Italy a Panenka is called a cucchiaio, literally a "spoon". Francesco Totti being famous for his cucchiaio.
Vox has done the impossible, making football interesting. Great video.
I use canons to score with great effect.
Old enough to remember when vox made videos more than once a week.
"That game with the oblong brown ball"
Vox, the best info I never knew I needed to know
very cool 😂
I swear I can make a regression model off this
As a goal keeper in my school i have a secret strategy to save pens and it 100% in the mind games
Of course there is a simple strategy to countering this but the chance of missing is very high
nice video
I'm sure the keepers dominant hand has tons to do to it. If he's left handed, go opposite sides
Oddly enough, 2022 world cup ended with a penalty kick.
4:00 I'm sure the expert gave a reasonable, though simplified, explanation of the difference between frequentists and Bayesians, but the reporter botched it on this one. Please get these things reviewed. This is not the first time Vox has misinterpreted a technical explanation.
5:15 We have a mathematical framework that explains why it's sometimes good to take a "worse" option. It's called the mixed strategy equilibrium.