How I Avoid False Breakouts (My Secret Technique)
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- čas přidán 24. 01. 2024
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Before I even finish the video I’m pausing it to say that as soon as you start to think about bragging or getting kudos you’re on the way to losing that trade. Mark my word.
😂
Agree
Me today in /NQ
Well said... I made that same mention in similar fashion also.
Its not the bragging itself, its the effect the bragging has on your emotions and discipline.
This is gold. Its what ive experienced and subconsciously know but first time hearing it articulated.
i literally watch this channel and use it to understand where to profit , and i will say i have made profit ever since... there is no other
channel like this with so much accuracy
Thank you for the continual sharing of great teaching you guys do! Very much appreciated!
The visual effects really add texture. Thanks for another great vid.
Thank you very much Jeff. The depth of this video is fantastic!
Haven’t even watched the video but my personal tip is don’t trade the initial breakout. Trade the retest of the level that it broke out from
I would somehow agree. I mean, if it's a fake breakout, the effect will be quite devastating.
Another is, take quick profit if you do trade the initial breakout, but hold longer, for the restest..
The best and strongest breakouts don’t retest so waiting for a retest could cause you to miss a lot of good trades and then you end up only trading the weakest breakouts. Just watch your position size and have a stop. The entry is one of the least important aspects of trading. Money management and risk management are the key.
It depends. The strongest most aggressive breakouts don’t retest.
@@AJohnson0325 Dangerous advise especially for new traders. That might fuel fomo, with devastating effect for traders who are not good at risk management.
This is the simplest thing yet most difficult for a lot
Im loving the more frequent content! Thank you all for your inspiration💯
This is the a very informative playbook in itself. Thanks for offering your experience on these conditions.
Great details Jeff! Thanks!
It's so valueable, thank SMB so much
i watched many SMB vids, all are very informative, very educational and full of wisdom ! btw, I like Jeff presentation most, he is so good at explaining and breaking things down into very details. Thanks Jeff, Mikey, and all SMB educators
You just described my exact problem: how an expectation causes a freeze as the knife falls. Thank you for this video. I will use the information.
Wow! Many thanks! Such a valuable lesson!
SMB never disappoints. Thank you 🙏.
Great video. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks Jeff, this is a very relevant topic you are adressing here.
Excellent clip Jeff and thanks. Perfect timing for this. Did you see CRBP today? Finished the day with an rvol of 1275. Check out the first 5min candle......insane vol then steady.... Strong catalyst too of course and nice mkt conditions for this trade.....
Very well explained!
Amazing rigorous trading methodology and cool engaging communication! Thank you, Jeff and SMB Capital team, for this great stuff!
man this is so great thanks jeff. Would have been amazing if you had chart examples of "rangy breaks" and " extended breaks" though. A brief follow up video on this with more examples would be stellar!
Yes! So much talking for so little exchange
Excellent info.
I've learned that support and resistance levels are more of a "zone" that a specific price level. Can be a few dollars wide on high volatile stock or as narrow as 1.00 on lower volatile stocks. All depends on the wicks and bodies in those zones. A resistance level can be between say 190 and 193 on a high volatile stock. The stock pushes up, breaks 190 with higher volume, everyone thinks its a break out, then it hits the top of that zone at 193, rejects, and breaks right back down under 190. Identifying those zones helped me a lot over the years and stopped me from getting into those false break outs. Fomo (fear of missing out) is real, people chase too many stocks when in reality if a stock is really strong it will give u multiple entries. Same when a stock is weak. We don't have to catch the WHOLE move a stock makes, we just have to catch part of the move to be profitable.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
You trade with Veronica Hoy too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
As a trend trader I rarely encounter range breakouts, my capital is allocated to other stocks. I break out of resistance levels but I’m trading the moving averages
interesting point!
Jeff,
You can identify a false breakout in real time by being aware of your expectations, emotions, and other positive reactions including accompaning thoughts. If they are positive, then you know that it is a false breakout. Our expectations and emotions are excellent indicators if treated counterintuitively.
NOTHING takes the wind out of your sails like a trade that setup up for a break out then sputters out of the gate.
Amazing video 🎉
Thank you
I've been burned by false break outs so many times that I wait until the false break out happens and then I take the trade.
Waiting until the whales have eaten?
picking up da scraps that fell off the table@@hubristicmystic
thank you for a solid lesson. i wish i had a mentor like this closer then new york :(
iirc they have an affiliate branch in austin texas. Its another trading company they partnered with years ago.
im in canada bro...@@Beachtrader0007
I am very proud to say as well that my portfolio is up approx 72% YTD. Around 6x of that of the spy (around 15% gain) and 1.93x that of the QQQ (around 47% gain).
A lot of gems here, but if you aren't as experienced, it's probably hard to catch what he's presenting without much visual guides.
But, good gems still...that's how you put together multiple good sources, into your own Trading playbook.
All you need to know is what a 180 bullish or bearish bar looks like. Should you enter long and that candle gets taken out by an engulfing red bar. You should get stopped out if you set your stop correctly. That is an INSTANT go short event. 180s have about a 75% follow through. Do not be stubborn or think it will come back. If you were wrong you were wrong. Great traders don't care. That is what the stop is for. They also have no problem going the other way if a certain event happens. A 180 bar is that event.
Great video, thanks. Hopefully I can get ahold of being profitable before I do that exhaust hose in the car window thing while I’m shit drunk, and eat a handful of Tylenol and Benadryls
Would have loved if you could have shown more examples along with your talk. Thanks.
newbie question..
..when the sec rule 203 is put into place, how come I'll see that stock listed as a larger drop in price than 10%....? (having read that the stock is only supposed to drop 10%
, then the 201 rule will take kick in. I often see stocks with a much larger than 10% decrease in value for that day..)(i'm looking at one on I/B and it's showing -22.97%) thanks
can you post a video how to sell the news (maybe with bitcoin example - coinbase IPO 14 IV 2021, and now ETF)?
Thanks for the insights ! In regards to passive price action, is that passive sustained buying on steady volume ? And regarding lethargic price action, is that basically price breaking out but by a small margin and then just going sideways or drifiting up on low volume ?
got the same question! I am only focused on break outs and it is hard sometimes to figure out what is going in that sense
I am sort of new to all this and my question is how do you profit from a stock that is breaking to the down side? What position do you take? Or did I misunderstand?
Could you create a video explaining the correct method for placing stop losses in the breakout technique, particularly when adding positions ? and different type of it
stop loss on a range break will almost always be just outside of the opposite side of the range.
Showing more visual examples would be great
I feel that the information is more like a story than a real educational material. For example 5 bars rule, minute bar, 5 min bar , 1 day bar what is the bar unit to report to. The video is more about a feeling than a real example. Also would be interesting to give a real example using a real ticker than to discuss in theory.
Best f’ing video you all have done! This is true online share training and applaud you for it. Thanks!
Been at this for 3-4 yrs and finally getting to breakeven after all the easy money I 24:20 made a few years ago. Knowledge is king, and I appreciate this video more than your others. Just wanted to drop my thoughts! Do more of this! Thanks
Have no idea when I even subscribed to this channel
What time bar are you talking about, 1 minute, 5 minute, or...?
Just like poker. The big hands play themselves and it's hard to misplay them. A lot of the edge is gained with marginal hands, especially knowing when to fold to avoid unnecessary losses in suboptimal scenarios.
those examples are some nasty fake outs...man the y can kill your account quickly
Thanks for the lesson SMB
Did not understand "15 bars higher...7 minutes...". Otherwise, seemed like good info. I will definitely watch for those conditions.
This video would have been much better with about 1/10 the number of words and ten times more examples. Too much yacking, not enough demonstrating.
agree
💯 agree
think about the kind of person who picks trading as a career and STILL chooses to go into an office every day in the most congested city in the world
13:45 makes sense
In trading, That guy crushed the trade to that guy got crushed in the trade comes very fast.
I d Love To Be A Full Time Prop Firm Trader for SMB Capital
I’m reading the book already
I swear most the time ive seen a stock or ETF consoidate after a big move down or up it usually continues the move in the direction that it's going.
- [00:00](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 📉 False breakouts can be detrimental to both your trading account and confidence, but Jeff Holden, head of Trader development at SMB, shares techniques to avoid them.
- [03:39](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 📈 Breakouts are characterized by energy and momentum buildup, often evolving from trading within a range into a consolidation phase before a breakout.
- [05:30](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 💡 Approximately 30 to 40% of breakouts fail, emphasizing the need to identify those prone to failure and adjust risk accordingly.
- [06:10](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 📊 Subtle clues like the number of touches on either side of a range can signal potential breakout failures, allowing traders to adjust their risk management.
- [09:02](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 🔍 Identifying pressure breaks and analyzing where the buildup occurs prior to a breakout can help differentiate between promising and failing breakouts.
- [12:00](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 📝 After identifying a good breakout, monitoring price action in the next five bars is crucial, with indicators like aggressive or passive participation helping gauge its success.
- [15:10](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 💼 Traders have three options after a breakout: stand, add to the position if buying is aggressive, or fold if price action indicates failure.
- [18:08](czcams.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/video.html) 🔄 Failed breakouts can present trading opportunities if recognized promptly, allowing traders to capitalize on price reversals.
sorry sir, you said about the next 5 bars, is it on 1 minute bar or 5 minutes bar or 3 minutes bar could u please reveal the secret??
thank you so much
He said any TF even the 1 minute
Should the stop usually go right below the breakout level?
That's what I usually do.....but these brokers have slippage. It's never just cut and dry with setting a stop loss
Trading is just everyday discovery, no matter how professional you are, market will always lecture you.
He says you can determine what will happen in the first 5 bars after the breakout. What bars? The one minute bar? The 5 minute bar? He is not specific, only says 5 bars.
Skip to 13 minutes bypassing all the marketing contents to sell courses .
Whenever I feel good I sell..when I feel bad I buy.
when i am hungry i short when i had good food i long :D
Isn't that just the stop hunt you see in London and Asian market. And trap and reverse.
5 bars on which time frame?!
he said any TF
I was just about to type the exact same question.
I think the fact that Rudy is an adult 8 years later from the time he walked his dogs when he was 17 is why his mom never got charged. No excuse to not charge her but the law considers him an autonomous self-deciding adult despite his trauma sadly enough
Ooops sorry wrong video
Mind your own biz
this is an advertising video, not educational.
A true price channel breakout must be confirmed with a similar channel breakout on RSI (with a new channel margin test). Works “always”
At false breakouts reversal is so fast you lose 10% by one candle
Is this the reasons2Sell video that Jeff mentioned: czcams.com/video/_gHBQiWncdo/video.html?
I believe it should be this one: czcams.com/video/bndpWHlUHCA/video.html
5 bars ? isn't too late ?
I wish you had shown concrete examples instead of guys sitting in front of their computers.
Generally like SMB vids but this one has too much talking and not enough actual SHOWING!
not so good for visual learners.
You wouldnt work for my firm trafing breakout. Breakout are a very retail concept its pretty much the worst strategie
By the Time the SELLERS in your example at 20:44, show their in on control you have missed 70% of the short, very little meat left on the bone, be nice to see, how you trade on the 1 min 2 min 3min in relation to the close of the candle and the Volume in relation to the close of the candle. This was very general and obvious for someone that has traded for a while. . . . Meh .......
I'll let him know.
This video was unintelligible. Next time, please use charts to demonstrate what all the vague adjectives you employ, one after the other, mean on a chart.
Tell you something, and you won't believe it: There are no false breakouts. But I am sure, just as you trust your indicators and moving averages and all that other b*llsh*t, you are only believing what you call the truth. But it doesn't matter; you are not a scientist, not a mathematician, not even a data analyst-so you don't know it better. And your audience is only newbies; actually, you can tell them anything. Another question: If you knew it better, why would you not run your own hedge fund or why work for a bank? There is only one logical answer, and yes, I'm trading for myself.
goddam i didnt learn shit from this! he just kept talking without saying anything!
I don't understand shit
Without visual representation of what you’re trying to show, this video is a complete waste of time
This Video is NOT helpful and doesn't suits @SMBCapitals standards. SMB Capitals standards are videos made by Lance. THAT quality suits this channel.
You frustrate yourself more and lose by picking and choosing which breakout to take, no way these people are real traders
too many nonsense
The anecdote at the beginning is unbearable. Was that AI generated, or do you actually think like a yoloing highschool kid? Get some better writers
Too much babble
there is always increse in volume even in a false break out since all stops being hit