Mindscape 145 | Niall Ferguson on Histories, Networks, and Catastrophes
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- čas přidán 2. 05. 2021
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Blog post with audio player, show notes, and transcript: www.preposterousuniverse.com/...
The world has gone through a tough time with the COVID-19 pandemic. Every catastrophic event is unique, but there are certain commonalities to how such crises play out in our modern interconnected world. Historian Niall Ferguson wrote a book from a couple of years ago, The Square and the Tower, that considered how an interplay between networks and hierarchies has shaped the history of the world. This analysis is directly relevant to how we deal with large-scale catastrophes, which is the subject of his new book, Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. We talk about global culture as a complex system, and what it means for our ability to respond to crisis.
Niall Ferguson received his D.Phil. degree from the University of Oxford. He is currently the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, and a visiting professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is the author of numerous books, several of which have been adapted into television documentaries, and has helped found several different companies. He won an international Emmy for his PBS series The Ascent of Money, and has previously been named one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time magazine.
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Thank you for the new episode!
I thought the reason the Asian countries handled it better was because of the past experience of SARS & MERS.
But that theory would not sell much books.
The explanations would not seem to be mutually exclusive. I think...
Niall is unbelievably eloquent and interesting.
His mastery of deep historical narratives
and contemporary facts is magnificent.
Perhaps, amongst recent public intellectuals,
he is second only the irreplaceable _Hitch,_
with Douglas Murray a close third.
I imagine a beautiful self-deprecating conversation
between Douglas and Roger Scruton:
_no, third place is yours_
_of course not, it most deserved by your good self_
_nonsense, I won't have it for a minute..._
But then I imagine the same sort of banter
at all such infamous Soho lunches for
_Punch, Private Eye_ and _The Spectator._
We get it, you're a Very weird right winger who writes walls of text Nobody reads, and you must be VERY fun at parties.
it would be nice if you added time stamps to navigate your videos
Paul Revere's night ride story getting canceled by the wokeness mob was a pretty sad insertion into an unrelated topic, especially from a historian/"autodidact" scientist. The anti-wokeness has become more annoying than wokeness. I stopped watching standup specials since nearly all of them has some stupid bit about cc/wokeness, or worse -- have a serious moment during the standup where they act like they're Socrates speaking the truth.
Seriously. I turned it off after that. Nobody has time for that garbage.
Yeah , Ferguson is kind of a fucking nerd when it comes to things like that.
Thank you
People are trying suggest he's a persona non grata. Just because he's not Left Wing doesn't make him dodgy character.
Those _'People'_ are very wrong.
If they want to dispute his facts,
then let them bring forth their sharpened arguments.
Niall is most definitely _persona ipsum grata._
Would be really interesting to listen to you interview Aubrey de Grey
Agreed. Also other anti-aging experts especially the man that uses the pseudonym "Reason" .
Sean i usually skip the interviews because i much prefer the solo science deep dives, but I have to commend your relentless tenacity at persuing such a varied array of difficult topics and multispectral guests. bravo
i have no idea what is being said
I thought the title read "histories, networks, and CATCHPHRASES"
Cool! Niall into dank memes!
Nialls catchphrase is “until he was cancelled” in this episode
I REALLY WANT TO HAVE YOU'RE
TWO BOOK'S: 'THE BIG PICTURE' AND 'THE BIGGEST IDEA"S IN THE UNIVERSE:QUANTA AND FIELD'S',
PROFFESSOR SEAN CAROL. P.S.: I
ENJOYED YOU'RE 'THE GREAT COURSES':'DARK MATTER, DARK MATTER, THE DARK SIDE OF THE
UNIVERSE'.❤
TL;DL, distributed vs. centralized network architecture, relating this to history and social networks, COVID response, and apparently everyone is "cancelled" and that's bad?
Paul Krugman would be an interesting guest to have, imho. You ask such good questions, I would be interested to hear the questions you would ask Krugman and his responses.
Concerning the possibility that a large volcano will cause global cooling:
Yes, that could happen, and global cooling would likely occur for a couple of years.
Then the backlash will bring efforts to reduce fossil fuel use to a screeching halt,
so the following result would be redoubled global heating.
Wonderful as usual! Taiwan is possibly the next fulcrum in human history. Thank you for this conversation! Biological evolution has recorded the experiments of time and biochemical trials in DNA - that is where the robustness of the systems supporting life emerges. “Power Point Slides” in government, economics, human health care or industry are very very limited plans to deal with anything, let alone these complex systems. Natural disasters do have statistical weighting, because of science, they are just not talked about in the public in the context of % preparedness. Yes - remind people of the experiences of the now dead - very important - it will give us a more robust society! The only weapons we have to deal with all these threats is human innovation in international cooperation, science and technology. Reference for pattern recognition by both Grahm Allison and John Mearsheimer/John Ikenberry and their warnings on Thucydides Trap and political liberalism and nationalism, respectively, needed here.
This guy is a total Chad. And I usually like your guests even if I disagree with them sometimes.
I hope that doesn’t make Sean a Stacy...
What do you think of pilot wave theory?
Sorry. I'm being ultra-irrelevantly-nick-picky here. But I just think Niall is using the wrong definition of 'sclerosis' - the opposite definition in fact (either that or the definition of sclerosis is itself wrong - much like we don't use 'hydrophobia' anymore to describe what we now know to be a symptom of the Rabies virus). From what I understand, in sclerosis of the brain for example, there is actually an increase of networking (greater isotropic diffuseness) and sensitivity, hence the increased pain.
its so complex they have to walk on peoples graves, forgive my rant not directed at you, but if you follow the media ofcourse everything is complex.
I MEANT DARK MATTER, DARK ENERGY, THE DARK SIDE OF THE UNIVERSE.
Having CZcams channel for Physicist deos it have any career impact now
As everyone is going to CZcams...
a whole universe out there full of worlds with no life but full of potential for our human civ to expand and the power that be would rather confine us here under a falsehood of war readiness to fight over limited land and resources
Let me get this out of the way first off, Niall Ferguson does indeed offer some good insights into history and networks/systems. The issue I have with him is his relentless use of important insights to back his political ideology. It was never so apparent as when @1:07:30 he pointedly and derisively mentions Greta Thunberg when citing some statistics. He is more bent on criticising certain political targets with digs like that, rather than an even-handed evaluation of history. That, and his over use of the word sclerotic just jumped out at me.
He put Greta's _end-of-the-world_ narrative in context,
comparing her (and other climate change _Chicken Littles_ )
to previous false Millenarian cults and prophets of doom.
Climate change campaigners have the character of a religious _eschaton._
The cynical sociopaths in government will just use that propaganda
as an excuse to spend more (of your) money and grab more power,
without actually protecting you from the impact
(and that is the main point of his critique).
He acknowledged climate change as an issue
but not an imminent urgent Armageddon.
He points out other more impactful dangers
from (long forgotten) nuclear war,
to unexpected overdue volcanic eruptions
and solar Coronal Mass Ejection _Carrington Events._
The question comes down to probability,
impact, urgency and cost-benefit analysis.
For example, protecting the electrical grid with ~$20bn,
might defend against CMEs _and_ military EMPs.
When Greta makes a quantitative argument
along those lines, she might get more listeners.
Until then, she is just another emotional teenager (until recently)
with irrational opinions, worth exactly one vote (only recently).
Even if those points were not all analyzed in this talk,
read Niall's latest book _Doom._
Niall does not advocate a _political ideology_
other than pointing that historically
top-down hierarchical bureaucratic government
without imminent external threats and dangers
generally does a poor job of handling disasters
whether they be natural or man-made.
They might make paper plans and impressive _Potemkin PowerPoints_
but when it comes down to the crunch, they are not successful.
In general, bureaucracies become bloated,
self-justifying and judged by insider politics,
rather than rational pragmatic competency.
There is a general feeling that meritocracy
combined with an open flow of information
listening to, and encouraging, diverse contrarian opinions
backed-up with simulation and regular operational exercises
can produce better outcomes.
But that is not a _political ideology._
It certainly does not mean left or right is best
and does not even stress democracy.
However, we might hope that democratic accountability
might help increase those factors for success,
as compared to autocratic groupthink
and persecution of independent thought.
But we have to have accountability
which includes a free press and free speech.
We might suspect that socialism
produces complacent bureaucracies,
but we may also think that corporatist policies
produce exploitative complacent companies (MIC),
that do not innovate enough to overcome threats.
Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel ...
are not all paragons of Western liberalism,
but they do have democracy, meritocracy, limited resources,
tremendously effective, uncorrupt, respected and lean bureaucracies
with an _asabiyyah_ (social cohesion) born from external threats.
They have been the winners in the pandemic (so far).
@@mikhailfranco It is quite evident from listening to Niall Ferguson that he does in fact advocate a political ideology. I might add, you seem to do the same as well. The more you write the more you prove what I originally wrote.
@@rumidude So you have no specific arguments at all, just hints at an unspecified _ideology,_ and accusations that some people adhere to this unspecified _ideology._ Very Rumi-esque and also very Dude-esque.
Doom and gloom
listened to the first half today. wondering what the over/under is on this guy saying that tired idw schtick about social media having too much power to censor blah blah over the next 40 min
Clearly you decided not to engage with his partisan tics. But I admit it would have been really satisfying to hear you tell him you knew he was trolling you the 5th time he wondered if some historical figure was "cancelled."
I gave up when Niall started talking about vulcanism.
I completely agree.
OK, fine... not completely. But it is nice to hear different perspectives on society, both current and past. None of us can know everything that is happening with everyone, now or in the past. We should all get to say how we see it and allow it to feed into our collective understanding.
Here you go again! On the one hand Niall Ferguson goes out of his way to look into and analyze the intricate "networks" that contributed to the success of the "American Revolution" (great!) and on the other, fumes against any attempts to look into (or God forbid, condemn) slavery, calling them "sterile use of time"? Isn't that the epitome of "picking and choosing"? Whose history is worthy of interest? Very disingenuous...my opinion
i think he would argue that there is no insight to be gained from merely condemning slavery. i’m sure he wouldn’t object to the use of network science in order to better understand the effects of slavery.
@@dtaylor091489 Then I guess Dr. Ferguson worded his comments very poorly or willfully "straw-maned" and caricatured recent research on slavery as mere "condemnation of slavery". I challenge him to provide the name of a single American historian who "just condemns" slavery. I find that statement very disingenuous. Why would he cast a negative view on slavery-related research as he does a many of his interviews?. Throughout his book tour (this podcast is, I suspect part of it) and in many other interviews, Dr. Ferguson says how much he abhors critical theory and because of that any research on slavery is to be labelled as "condemnation of slavery" and simply discarded. I guess he doesn't like the subject of slavery therefore it's a waste of valuable time to him. In my opinion, that's cherry picking and it's very "unhealthy" to think in those terms all while promoting an alternative approach to research in history
Rothschild 19:56
A right wing historian.
You listen to Niall Ferguson for a while and then you realize you're dealing with soft marshmallow. The amount of pop speculating disguised as history and analysis has about the same consistency. Mostly, don't apply any heat to it or you'll have a mess in your hands.
He’s absolutely ridiculous. What is it with Brits doing the whole “contrarian” thing to sound smart? Hitchens did it too
listen to all your podcasts - but saw niall as guest and will pass on this one - seen enough of his fascist rhetoric !
He is not fascist.
It is one thing to lose the battle of ideas
but it is quite another to let your prejudices
stop you from even showing up on the battlefield.
You should open your mind
listen to what he has to say
and propose your own counter-arguments.
In that way lies anti-fragility
both for you and wider society.
Seems more afraid of being canceled than climate change, racism, and wokeness...sigh.
there is alot of unhappy people in china, I think we'd have more Chinese defecting than fighting. At least the dear leader xi-ping isn't a religious nut or political fanatic, it seems like pure nationalism not linked to a political ideology (if you exclude the 'too big for democracy' as a ideology).
Perhaps “whining about wokeness” would have been a more apt title.
I can't believe you had on a guest with a proven track record of REPEATED bad faith positions, homophobia, racism cloaked in "pro-western pro-empire" language, Islamophobia, outright lies about, lawsuits against, and stalking of intellectual dissenters.
I'm all for dissent. I'm all for clashing opinions and honest debate. But this guy is objectively an unapologetic bigot with nothing of substance to say. All style and show. Broad but shallow.
And he also thinks that Paul Revere's ride is a real thing. Sure PR was there, along with 40+ other riders gaming out over the region. Were ALL 40 of these guys *the single most connected and networked man in the colonies* and thus uniquely able to gain the trust of the populous?
Ugh.
Still love the show, though :)
I will admit that he made some remarks about John Maynard Keynes that leaned in the homophobic direction, but the racism claim is bit odd given that his wife is black.
You can love someone of a different race and still make racists comments and arguments. I didn't mean to exactly say HE was racist, just that his bad faith arguments on global policy and slavery amount to old-hat Imperial White Supremacy cloaked in "reason".
Check out his track record outside of this show. It's all in the public record.
Lots of wokiewhining in the comments section.