Maximizing Profits with Lay 4.5 Goals: My Proven Approach 💥
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- čas přidán 21. 08. 2024
- Maximizing Profits with Lay 4.5 Goals: My Proven Approach
Welcome back to Trading the Market! In this video, titled "Maximizing Profits with Lay 4.5 Goals: My Proven Approach," we dive deep into the effectiveness and profitability of our Lay Over 4.5 Goals strategy. Recently, a CZcams channel attempted to discredit our strategy, and today, we're addressing their points and providing clear explanations on why our strategy works so well.
For over a year, this individual actively participated in our Discord community, positively engaging with our content and enjoying our scammer exposé videos. Despite themselves running a channel dedicated to exposing scammers, they openly admitted that I am not a scammer. Their attitude only changed when I declined to divulge personal information in a private conversation. Interestingly, this person never shows their face or reveals their true identity, raising questions about their credibility. It seems their attack on Trading the Market is a calculated attempt to exploit our channel's success.
We appreciate critical feedback and believe in open discussions to ensure transparency and continuous improvement. In this video, we break down the critic's arguments and explain the robust methodology behind our Lay Over 4.5 Goals strategy.
Here's what we cover:
The context and methodology of our Lay Over 4.5 Goals strategy
Addressing misconceptions about market efficiency and statistical analysis
The dynamic and adaptive nature of our trading approach
The importance of transparency and education in sports betting
Our practical approach to staking and bankroll management
Real results from our community, including live trades and success stories
Stay tuned as I hand it over to Billy, who shares his own experience with the Lay 4.5 strategy, including his impressive results and live trades. Billy provides a comprehensive insight into how he has successfully implemented this strategy, growing his bankroll consistently.
We also delve deeper into the data using Sports-IQ, analyzing over 50,000 football matches to demonstrate the high success rate and viability of our Lay 4.5 strategy. This is exactly what I have done in my previous video, where I executed 201 trades with only 2 losses. The results of my own trades and this extensive back test speak for themselves.
Despite the negativity and toxicity surrounding our strategy, we remain committed to helping our community thrive by providing transparent, reliable information. This negativity only strengthens our resolve to continue sharing valuable strategies and supporting our community in making informed decisions.
A quick update from TTM... We really do appreciate all the positive feedback and some of the negative....If comments are missing maybe the user themselves have removed their own comments.
At the time of writing this comment I have personally removed one person from the channel/comments section, you are all free to comment as you wish with negativity if that is your preference and the comment will stay for all to see but excessive trolling and constantly slagging us off across multiple comments is just uncalled for, helps nobody and will be removed.
Kind regards TTM .
Another interesting post, thank you. I just dont get why people are complaining. Its not like we are paying you £50 a month for the data, its free. Do what i did and paper trade it for a month or too, that will soon tell you if its going to work or not. Personally this strat has really helped me and i love it. Please do continue to educate and guide us all on this O4.5 journey. Im so looking forward to the 24/25 European season. I do subscribe to Sports IQ but its a very low cost which i think is worth it particularly for the backtest feature. I hope i dont wear it out. Rest in peace BF Trading !!!
Good video and nice to see some more granularity. However you have an error on the quoted ROI. The risk (liability) per trade is £65 in your example, not the £10 stake you win (before commission) on a successful trade. ROI is the total profit achieved for the total capital risked. For 649 trades the total capital risked is £42,185 for a total profit (before commission) of £2,590. This is an ROI of 6.14% (not 39.91%). Assuming a 2% commission the profit is £2,471 (5.86% ROI) and for a 5% commission the profit is £2,292 (5.43% ROI). Don’t get me wrong, 5% ROI is actually very decent over the long-term. The trick here is to maintain a very high win rate as a slight drop equates to meaningfully negative EV and some trades will be north of 7.5 in odds (towards 10) which might lower the achievable strike rate and profit margin at the margins. Still a credible strategy in my opinion if you can stomach higher liabilities.
Good to see someone else understands the difference between Stakes [Back] & Liability [Lay] when it comes to working out RoI. Whereas TTM mean well, I'm afraid they are not as clued up as they would like to think. Stopped using their Discord Grp because of a few peoples egos, & basic errors such as this. Still, they do have some good ideas which I have adapted into profitable strategies, so can't complain.
100% mate.
At least you now know the reason behind the ROI 😉
Correct me if I’m wrong but when you calculate the ROI, shouldn’t the stake be £65 rather than the £10 you quote?
This would give an ROI of 6.15%
Yup - I agree. Also, he hasn't included commision from the calculation. In the UK it's 2%, in other countries it's more. Still, any system that delivers 5%+ ROI with a very high strike rate is a good system. Unfortunately, it kind of make me question the reliability of this as a pro wouldn't make that mistake.
@@betman6774 "it kind of make me question the reliability of this as a pro wouldn't make that mistake" ... Couldn't have put it better myself.
It wasn't a mistake...
Very much intentional for a certain somebody and for this very reason 😉
@@TradingTheMarket sounds serious
For working out the profit and loss, I think there is an error surely? You are assuming that if the filter is set to minimum 7.5 odds, that all lays are 7.5 odds, I have not found one example of this so far in 3 months of being a member. So simply multiplying losing results on £10 stakes as £65 losses is incorrect. Whilst the strategy returns an impressive 90%, the liability most often exceeds £100 given the filtered odds on £10 stakes. I must be missing something?
Solid video. Strange you get grief for giving away info for free that nobody is forced to follow. What I would say is laying isn't for everyone, especially at higher odds. Requires a certain mindset and something I dont cope with anyway! For those looking for an edge its reasonably straight forward. If your average odds you are laying at is 7.5 that equates to a probability of 13.3%. You *could* look at historic data across leagues and find leagues where O4.5 happens less than 13.3% of the time. So doing this with last 3 seasons data, as an example you get 11.23% matches O4.5 in Championship, 11.78% in League 1, 10.92% in Serie A, 10.12% in Serie B etc. etc. Just need to pull data from football-data, or use sports IQ. Of course still need to forward test as well.
Well done and many thanks again. If I wanted to use this Lay 4.5 method or find it and how much does it cost me?
It's completely free pal.
Check out the channel there are now multiple videos showing how to use it...
You can use our free spreadsheet or Sports-IQ for ease of use 👍🏻
Awesome, guys. Keep up the great work 😎
Always 💪🏻
I still occasionally look in on the discord server in the vain hope they've opened General to viewing so we read how two years of fun all came to an end.... 😞
I get how there was not much actual trading talk in there, but it was still fun to read and I'm still pissed off with myself for missing the last few hours of it.
Sadly, I don't think it'll come back because of all the hassle the admin got from running it. I think they're enjoying having their lives back, and don't miss the grief one bit. The unnecessary shit they got from the 4.5 was the last straw for them, and I don't blame them for closing it. Enough was enough.
Agreed, I enjoyed the general chat
Great use of stock videos
In the original video, no exit strategy was discussed as it was regarded as a set & forget. Are there any plans for further videos to discuss this? I lost one trade on this strategy in a match where it was 0-0 @ half time & 5 goals were scored in the 3nd half, so probably would have been better for me to trade out on this one?
It all comes down to the individual.
It is a set and forget and that is exactly how I use it...
Billy on the other hand has added the exit of 1.04 for his own trading... Very much each to their own fella.
The choice is entirely yours.
Just because 1 game didnt work out doesnt mean trading out is a good idea. You basically cut your profits and potentially increase losses. You need a bigger picture than that.
Great video guys. Keep up the excellent work. Nobody produces trading videos like TTM do
More to come! 💪🏻
🤣🤣🤣 Yep, that was fun[ny].
are you laying 7.5 and above now after back testing ?
do odds between 6 and 7 give a lower strike rate?
The reason I used odds of 7.5 and above is because in the original video my average odds across 201 trades were 7.8.
The odds filter will come to Sports-IQ soon I believe, I couldn't give a specific date because I honestly don't know the answer but you will be able to test it for yourself soon enough 👍
Just show your statement und premium charged paid on last year and everything would be done. Why you instead make a video? You could make them quiet and ashamed forever. A real professional would do it this way.
jeff you sound like a disgruntled ex ttm member
give a rest you're boring 😅
@JeffTownsend-l8v I'm doing fine thanks
doesn't sound like you are with all your babbling 😅
@JeffTownsend-l8v I believe you mate haha have a great weekend of trading
I don't think you realise just how little I care about what people think of me.
The videos are made for a reason...
So people don't fall into the trap of spending money to learn to trade, the info is readily available, and the strats people don't know about will be shared by TTM...
I am not important... the message the channel gives... is.
If the masses don't like that... tough.
For the most part our videos and strategies are very well received.
As for my P+L and premium charges, maybe one day I will share them with the world when I accumulate some fcks to give.
There is a difference between scared and care.
I don't have to do anything. I don't owe you anything.
Plus the joy I get from you and the tin foil hat brigade is just too priceless to give up.
Hi, is there a max or minimum odds you lay at?
Also I noticed you have a pre match odds filter on the back testing page, I don’t seem to have that on mine.
Cheers Craig
Max odds of 12 personally.
The pre match odds filter is currently in the beta phase.
It will be going live shortly 👍
Great video as always James.
Appreciate it mucker 👊🏻
Great work lads. Always believed
Legend!
Cheers TTM. Let's have a IPA. Investigate (with) Paper (and) Adjust.
I may just use that in future 👊🏻🤣
Billy, how many trades have you made on this strat?
over 500, i started doing it with the loose criteria which provided alot more picks
Am i using Sports IQ backtest wrong? I get 427 filtered, 406 success, 21 fail with the same selections and removing the odds filter
I have Goalsense
How did you know that Gurubusters was in your discord group?
He's not going to use the same name is he?
Just wondering. 😀
They were on the same side in the beginning so he was probably using his own account. That's no to say he doesn't have multiple accounts.
@@sundaybighouse If he was using Gurubusters as his user name then that would be a give away.
But as you say he was probably using another user name in which case how would they know he is Gurubusters?
Maybe they know him personally but don't want to identify him.
I noticed in the video that they did mention someone by name, this could be Gurubusters real name, I don't know?
Thanks for your reply. 😀👍
Said person was in our Discord under said title.
@@TradingTheMarket Really - Wow!. I've watched his channel and I don't think you are scammers by the way.
He analyses strategies to the nth degree, he takes the fun out of betting.
If we were to believe what he says, then we might as well stop betting, no point.
But we know if we are getting value with are bets / trades then there will be a profit at the end of it.
Thanks for your reply much appreciated.
Keep up the good work! 😀👍
Is this a joke. The lay prices on such a bet are massive y. You would only need one to go against you to be in a hole.
I see you closed the discord now you got enough subscribers to sports IQ :)
Completely unrelated.
Not that I will ever convince a select few but hey ho... that's life i suppose.
I have tried this strategy for a couple of weeks and it isn't going well at all. In the 12 matches I have traded on, 4 games have ended over 4.5, with 2 of the games having 6 goals and the other two having 5. Either I am being extremely unlucky, or I am doing something wrong. The stats I based placing the losing bets on followed by the number of goals in the match are shown below.
(AvD = 1, MN = 16.5, gls = 6), (AvD = 0, MN = 11, gls = 5), (AvD = -1, MN = -7.5, gls = 6), (AvD = -2, MN = -9, gls = 5). Would you be able to advise if there are any any flaws in the matches selected based on the values above?
Can you tell me which matches you lost on? I do believe some of the matches are matches I also traded.
The strategy will always have variance...
Unfortunately, we can not make money on every selection buddy.
@@TradingTheMarket Hi James,
Appreciate you responding on a football evening! My lost matches were Orlando City v Chicago Fire (4-2), Friska Viljor FC v Taby FK (4-1), Zamalek vs Ceramica Cleopatra (4-2), Binh Dinh v Công An Nhân Dân (4-1) and I just lost another tonight - ÍB Vestmannaeyja Keflavik IF AvD Rel = -1, Magic # = -7.5 (5-0 - 2 goals in injury time). I get the stats from the Daily Sheet. I appreciate that nothing is certain, but my hit rate (won 9 lost 5) is abysmal compared to yours, so maybe I'm misinterpreting something.
The criteria you are using is correct.. Like I say variance will always play a part in any strategy... some people will start trading it and win 100 in a row and others like yourself will start and lose 5 it's the nature of the beast I'm afraid.
The best advice I can give you is to paper trade as many selections as you can until you are comfortable with the strategy/criteria/selections 👍
@@TradingTheMarket Sorry to trouble you again, but do you have a link to the Daily Sheet downloads? The link I had before only points to the June ones and I find the one on the website a bit difficult to manage. Cheers.
drive.google.com/drive/folders/1rzPyFuUJtw-NWE0oJw25B36Aof9FAe8m
Sorry to see the discord server go down. I'll miss chatting to everyone.
Will the General thread be available to view again? It's saying I don't have permission to view the message history of # general. Thanks.
There is so much none trading talk in there it's not worth leaving open to view in all honesty.
@@TradingTheMarket And how much trading talk is there in Getting Sh1t Off Your Chest, which I've just noticed is still open for reading?
And if I recall correctly, General did have a lot of very useful, very relevant trading-related talk in it, it wasn't all non-trading chit-chat.
With the Sh1t channel still open and readable, hiding General now makes no sense at all. So please, could you open General for reading again? Pretty please with sugar on top? 🙂
Aaaaand it's gone. 🙂
I know I'm probably being silly, but all this hidey-hidey, blocky-blocky of the General channel makes me wonder what's in there they don't want us to see...
Fucking sexy. Brilliant video James and Billy. Thanks for all you do keep it up legends ❤
Love you too Mish ❤
Where has TTM and Sports IQ gone. The demise of both is spectacular and says a lot
Gone??
Demise??
We all have our own lives and families...
I can assure you TTM is very much a sleeping giant.
@@TradingTheMarket well the decision to end the discord in favor of a CZcams community? Seems pretty quiet if you ask me. I guess only paid Sports-IQ users can engage now via Discord, of which I am no longer one. Good luck as and when the sleeping giant awakens
Many thanks once again, I have made the strategy work for small stakes and I’m a thick Brummie 😂 keep up the good work gents, ignore the c u next Tuesdays and thanks again 👍👍
Haters are always going to hate. Don't listen to the noise
100%
100%
1:34 - No need
Disappointed the way you deleted the discord channel.
Agreed.
💯 Lessons have been learned.
Gurubusters video called you out on the nonsense, yet you still persist with this awful 'strategy', I lost a lot of money on it before I was clever enough to see the light.
And yet here you are...still watching.
Good luck in your trading journey.
you comment the same shite on our videos, yet you dont answer when questioned why your failing, dont play the victim when your the problem not us, victims will always be victims
@@billyarma8451 you just had to close down, well done guru!
Close Down??? 😂
Turning off a chat function is seen as closing down??? 😝
I have never seen as many conspiracy theories come from all of your mouths...it truly is hilarious the things you guys say over there, proper makes me chuckle.
If it helps you sleep at night... happy days.
More fool you should of paper traded it 🤪
I watched the latest video from Gurubuster criticising you. The guy seems very closed minded.
In his eyes, if you obtain yields greater than 1-2%, you are full of BS. With this definition I must be full of BS too as my set and forget strategies return far better yields than his golden standard.
Carry on making your videos, ignore the guy.
Bloody Boom 💥 👏
Dw bro we know you are giving us good information and we dont care about what other people has to say.