The Number That Gets You Shot
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- čas přidán 23. 10. 2022
- Imagine a world in which everything about your life -- your friends, your family, which school you went to, your social media activity -- are reduced to a simple number used by police and the government to determine whether something bad will happen to you.
It sounds crazy, and almost paranoid, but algorithm-based initiatives have aided police from Chicago to London to help guide public safety interventions. In the case of Robert McDaniel, he was assigned a score that put him on Chicago’s “Heat List,” and he was told that he was likely to be involved in a shooting. But police didn’t know whether he’d be the shooter or the victim.
That resulted in the city offering him a range of services, but it also put him on the police’s radar -- and that began a chain of events that fulfilled a grim prophecy.
The promise of advanced math utilizing increasingly sophisticated data collection grows stronger by the year… but so do its potential perils. Can quantifying a person’s behavior actually tell us anything useful about them? And if it can, is it ethical?
The rise and fall of Chicago’s Heat List demonstrates not just how predictive policing works, but how it impacts individuals. And while the calculations themselves are a black box, there’s one thing we do know: once you’re on the list, you can’t get off.
MUST WATCH: Fantastic German documentary “Pre-Crime” (2017) by Matthias Heeder and Monika Hielscher. Pre-Crime delves into the details and implications of data-based policing and where the future is headed worldwide, available on Amazon and more: www.imdb.com/title/tt6998222/
MUST READ: “Heat Listed,” by Matt Shroud, which describes Robert McDanels' experience and the efforts of Chicago police to use data to reduce gun violence: www.theverge.com/c/22444020/c...
** ADDITIONAL READING **
“The Small Social Networks at the Heart of Chicago’s Violence,” by Whet Moser: www.chicagomag.com/city-life/...
“For years Chicago police rated the risk of tens of thousands being caught up in violence. That controversial effort has quietly been ended.” by Jeremy Gorner: www.chicagotribune.com/news/c...
“Pre-Crime” (2017), documentary by Matthias Heeder and Monika Hielscher: www.imdb.com/title/tt6998222/
“The grim reality of life under Gangs Matrix, London's controversial predictive policing tool,” by Peter Yeung: www.wired.co.uk/article/gangs...
“The Police Are Using Computer Algorithms to Tell If You’re a Threat,” by Andrew Guthrie Ferguson: time.com/4966125/police-depar...
“Violence Is Contagious”: A Conversation with Andrew Papachristos,” by Greg Berman: www.hfg.org/conversations/vio...
“Social Networks and the Risk of Gunshot Injury,” Papachristos, Andrew V et al. Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine vol. 89,6 (2012): 992-1003.
** LINKS **
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Twitter: / vsaucetwo
Facebook: / vsaucetwo
Talk Vsauce2 in The Create Unknown Discord: / discord
Vsauce2 on Reddit: / vsauce2
Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: / kevlieber
Twitter: / kevinlieber
Podcast: / thecreateunknown
Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
/ tabortcu
Editing by John Swan
/ @johnswanyt
Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
www.etsy.com/shop/Craftality
Vsauce's Curiosity Box: www.curiositybox.com/
#education #vsauce #crime - Věda a technologie
At a minimum, anything remotely like this should be required by law to publish its algorithm
If they release the algorithm to the public, there are certainly people who will use that information to maximize what they can get away with. Always downsides
@@joshuaw.1427 How? Do you hire a killer that you only know by tree degrees of separation instead of two, to kill people not one degree of separation of you, but three?
I guess seeing the algorithm in front of ones face would simplify planning, but... who runs a crime syndicate by metrics of degrees of separation?
I mean, crime syndicates use degrees of separation to unlink high ranking members from low level crimes, but... I somewhat would assume that this is organizationally driven hierarchy driven by necessity rather then... calculating the pre crime calculations?
If the algorithm is fully transparent then it'll be taken advantage of. We either need a transparent algorithm that has limited influence or limited transparency.
A good compromise is to tell people what factors influence it, but not necessarily how those factors are calculated. Either way I think targeting people is a terrifying prospect
@@joshuaw.1427 this problem can be overcome by putting the threshold low enough so that the "max" is tolerable for society. It is then basicly like saying this is the law and thats the punishment if you step over it.
I mean people maximize the limit of the law all the time. For example driving 5-10kph over the speed limit because if you get cought its not that expensive (at least in my country). So it is technically forbidden but alot of people do it. Raise the punishment and the Speed will lower in consequence. Lower the threshold of the algorithm and the maximum is lower too.
And open source is in generel the better option like in all software.
But all in all i have watched enough Vsauce2 videos about predicting crime with some kind of "magic" algorithm that this practices should be just stopped immediatly and that everywhere
This wouldn't be very useful. You can't reverse-engineer a neural network, it's a mathematical model of an actual brain, even the creators don't know what exactly goes on in there.
Neural networks are most commonly made using evolution and artificial selection. First you create multiple AIs that do random things, then select the one which happens to be closest to what you want, and make more AIs based on that but with minor differences, then repeat.
The result is a black box - it works, but NOBODY knows HOW.
The problem with such a risk score for shooting involvement is that the risk per person is very, very low, meaning that 300 times higher risk is still too low to have any predictive value at all. I occasionally choose to walk across a street. That multiplies my risk of being involved in an accident many times over, but it is still negligible, no reason to worry.
You crossing the street means that the chance of being involved in an accident multiplies by 1000... but 0.00000001%*1000 = 0.00001%
That's one of the biggest problems of the method. Even 500 times more risk is not a risk worth taking any action. The number that should make the bells ring should be in the order of the tens or hundreds of thousands.
The fact that they make a list instead of waiting for a specific high value only masks the deficiency of the algorithm. There is now somebody somewhere that has a value of some millions because he is planning to shot somebody tomorrow, but that doesn't appear in their calculations, because the predictive power that you can gain from social networks only goes so far.
The threshold for a result being worth a consideration of any kind of preventive action would be if the calculated risk is significantly higher than the statistical uncertainty of the method. And obviously, there are lots of individual factors unavailable to statistical analysis, but having a much higher impact than, say, an acquaintance having a criminal history. Any statistical outcome without a confidence interval should be thrown away before the numbers are thought of as interesting, and first step should be falsification of the methods of estimating the confidence interval.
Yeah. That's likr saying that person A is 5 times likely to be a criminal than person B. That sure sounds very impressive and certain until you see that a chance for person B is 0.1 percent and a chance for person A is 0.5%.
It's extremely easy to lie with statistics and manipulate it to your will.
The chances of being shot in Chicago isn't low
a few years ago, such an algorithm would have been considered a sure sign that one was living in a dystopia
well we are...
I’ve seen this movie, it had Tom Cruise in it.
I guess that for most people, being in a horrible society counts more towards perceiving it as a dystopia than the gimmicks sometimes displayed in fiction.
You just need to compare how society is today and how society is in 1984 (the book), and you can see how far or close we are of a dystopia
You can ignore this, im just putting it here so more people will see it in a top comment.
Established Titles isn’t legit btw, if anyone was wondering. You do not have the right under Scottish law to describe yourself as a lord or lady due to ownership of a souvenir plot. Also, a bunch of other shady stuff that would take forever to put here. Look it up, and don’t buy their stuff.
Clearly, this algorithm has a major flaw: When calculating one's likelihood to be involved in gun violence, it did not factor in ones social proximity to the _police._
"Wow, every single person we've sent the police to investigate, has been involved in a police shooting! This algorithm has 100% predictive power!"
"BOOBS." - Kevin Lieber, Vsauce2 Oct 24, 2022
that was so out of left field i had to rewind the video 3 times to make sure I didn't mishear it
@@Nynodon
Same.
I think he said that just to grab the attention of the people that somewhat lost interest of what was going on ☠️
Also, every fifth-to-eighth grader in history who was handed a calculator.
Lmfao That I already forgot about in the grander scheme of this terrifying dystopia black mirror social score crime liklihood quack.
I used to have an acquaintance who was a kleptomaniac. I myself work in security, and so I need a clean criminal record. I was deathly afraid he'd get me in trouble every time I went to the store with him... I tried to convince the guy to stop stealing, but I lacked the skills to help him with his stealing obsession. In the end I had no choice but to cut ties with him.
As people, I think we have a responsibility to help each other become better, but unfortunately there are limits to what we can do.
This is a perfect example of something I talked about in another comment: Law abiding citizens tend not to want to hang out with criminals.
For you it was for your job, but me, even that additional risk, I wouldn't want to be friend with someone like that.
So, I don't think the algorithm is necessarily wrong. I'm very confident that people who DO hang out with criminals, have a very high likelyhood of bring criminals as well. At least, way higher than the general population.
Now, this doesn't justify harassment, but vigilance may be warranted.
sadge
@@newpgaston6891 but here you highlight another problem. If I, in an effort to better my community or assist my neighbours, spend a great deal of time assisting people to truly need it, the algorithm has the reverse effect by targeting me instead of others more likely to commit crime. The argument that vigilance is harmless is correct in an ideal world, but unfortunately it isn't the reality we live in. Heightened scrutiny leads to heightened response, regardless of guilt or validation.
@@newpgaston6891 Also the algorithm doesn't assume that you are more likely to become criminal as well, it just assumes that that there is significant chance that other people draw you into a conflict.
@@RyanRex and yet, even if you are spending time with criminals in an attempt to help them, you are more likely to be a victim of violence. hence a perfect algorithm for your risk should increase your number
my brothers childhood friend got involved with drugs and crime later in life but police still targeted him with "random" stops and harassing calls. so even if you drop a friendship police will still hound you since the computer see no difference nor does the local police office.
i would also like to point my brother has only ever been thrown in the drunk tank and been employed 95% of his adult life.
This stuff is kinda messed up :/
I guess the algorithm tracked "similar developmental environments maybe similar outcomes??"
@@alexia3552sure but even if it is 100% true, the police, at least in America, have absolutely no right to treat you any kinda way based on what you "might" do. Unless, of course, there is verifiable & actionable evidence that you are conspiring to commit a crime. Other than that, you are innocent until they can prove that you aren't.
Love the fact that Kevin just has a featureless black box.
Does he own that independently of his work, and thought "that'll be a good prop"?
Or more likely, did he purchase/make said box, thinking "wow I'm dealing with a lot of videos involving hidden algorithms, this will definitely come in handy"
I can’t believe I just took that box for granted and didnt think about it. I feel so minipulated😢😂
I’m curious about that too. What _is_ that mysterious box?
I guess we’ll never know…
Since we don't know how the video is made, the black box is within a black box...
@@CapablePimento this reply was almost better than the comment
@@CapablePimento Reminds me of Patrick Star and his silly box on Spongebob
The part of the video that really disturbs me is someone shot him because the police visited him, like that is insane. Like if you see police visit someone, your first thought is, I should shoot them, then you actually do it?
Shoot them twice, on two different occasions.
They're black
I guess that's Chicago for you 🤷🏽♂️
Welcome to America, hope you like your diverse neighborhood.
that's just how paranoia works, unfortunately. innocent people get shot by police, people get paranoid, they see someone talking with police, they think he's gonna tell the cops about stuff they do, so they shoot him to get him to quiet up
This whole concept reminds me of the anime "Psycho-Pass". It's a dystopia where you are given a number that measures your mental state and likelihood of commiting a crime and if it goes beyond a certain threshold, they begin to "hunt you down" for being too much of a threat to society. The thing is, the ones that hunt criminals down are actually people whose Psycho-Pass went well beyond that threshold and are treated as hounds, so that other citizens don't have to be involved with the killing.
Wow that show sounds awesome. I'll have to check it out.
A friend used to be a Maricopa County sheriff’s officer a while back. He said he was out in a rural community near Wickenburg and just started chitchatting with a guy for a few minutes (my friend is a very friendly, outgoing sort of guy). A couple days later they found the guy he was chatting with shot dead, apparently because the people of his community thought he was being a police informant. The actual contents of the conversation was frivolous stuff like sports scores and the weather.
My friend thought he was engaging in community relations, not signing a guy’s death warrant.
shhhiii.... apparently the police have a much more fundamental rehabbing of community relations to be undertaken first
How is your friend doing now?
he should have been aware of the implications
@@tink6225 he shouldn’t have to be
@@baconwizard true, still realistically he should've been aware of what his presence would suggest
LOVED this video... It really makes you think about causality, which is a complicated, yet hugely influential topic that is often overlooked.
What wasn't mentioned is the problem Chicago Police have in most of Chicago. Their own credibility.
People don't like to talk to CPD because their reputation precedes them. Everyone becomes a suspect. Even a witness from the 'burbs. The CPD abuses nearly everyone. And Chicago Police brass will talk about reforming the system. And not one freaking thing is ever done. They will hire a new Superintendent (Chief of Police) who promises to reform the Department. And nothing happens.
shaite got no replies
It's all a fraud. We already have the technology to stop all crime. But that isn't profitable.
Well it seems like their unsolicited dive into causality caused a casualty.
For the first time ever, I'm glad I don't have friends. Thank you, Kevin.
same
same
same
My algorithm says people without friends are 100x more likely to be involved in a shooting. Nice try
same
That's very sad.. Not only was he facing the peer pressure but the incompetency of his government toying about with people's lives
I'm from the government and I'm here to help.
The US is a police state
is it still called peer pressure when your neighbors are pointing at you with their guns?
@@helper_bot That's a good point but what else would you call it?
I'm not sure I'd characterize it as "toying about with peoples' lives"; they did their best to try to help a guy at high risk for getting shot to not get shot. It's just sad that this guy demonstrably lives in a neighborhood where your own friends will lure you outside to get pumped full of bullets if the cops come talk to you.
Honestly the concept of this heat map system reminds me of the Sibyl System from PsychoPass, which is an AI that assigns a value to a person's mental state and deems whether or not they're a threat to society.
Or Minority Report.
100% what i thought as well
i was listening to this and not watching, and I thought they were literally talking about the crime coefficient.
Another fella of culture! Loved Psycho-Pass!
Certain child protection divisions use a similar list. For example;
If one of my cousins were to lose their children due to poverty (the ACTUAL most common cause in my state), I and my siblings would then be scrutinized heavily and would then risk losing our children regardless of circumstance. I've seen it happen too many times.
Cops: We can't just show up to someone's house to warn them, we need a new plan. Let's try sending a letter instead?
The Letter: Do not try to find us. This letter is a warning. You will be shot or you will shoot. Stay safe citizen!
Man- “We’ll see about that.”
Man- get gun to protect himself.
Man- Two days realized the second half of the letter.
Man-“#^!}*£\=!!!!”
@@suetekhset7660 😭
@@catherinebaldwin6580 exactly how it happens
Is this the vase conundrum? He wouldn't have the gun if he didn't feel threatened enough to own one.
@@ArtSurvivesArtist exactly. also what is the vase conundrum?
Watching the first minute I was like "ya dude, that's the start to 'Person of Interest'"
finally found someone who's seen the show...I had to scroll down way too long for this reference...like, c'mon..nobody?
My People! I love this series so glad to see more of you!
I came in looking to see if I was the only one making that connection.
(Un)fortunately the AI in that show was maybe another thousand times stronger predictively. Like, it'd be able to know if putting someone on the list would kill them, and use that to assassinate people. Not that it would ever do that....
@@AySz88 Samaritan would. And made its own assassination lists. Leaked the US Marshals' witness protection list in S4E10.
3:25 he looks like he'd have a 4 digit score. Of course, since it's his algorithm, he'd set it to 0.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who found the guy kind of weirdly creepy, I mean no offense to that guy, but in that photo with every single muscle in his face that's pushing his lips toward a smile being so weirdly perked up it almost feels like a meatcanyon drawing but irl. Also he's squinting hard enough that you can only see the iris and at least for me his iris looks black so it looks almost like as if his entire eyeball is just black or smth which feels extra creepy too.
he looks like the grinch in the live action movie
He looks like he's high on something.
He is so terrifying
@@pandagod1773
Lol he does look like a 90 year old Jim carrey
It’s like mistreating the quiet kid because you think he’ll become a school shooter,
This pisses him off and decides to shoot you.
Seems like it would have been a better idea to send the social worker alone.
They wanted him to get shot. Police have a deep enough understanding of criminal culture to know that being seen chatting with them puts a target on your back.
But if they were high risk, it'd be unlikely to risk a civilian going in alone
@@raincandy3 there was no reason to believe the man was high risk.
@@reanetsemoleleki8219 If the risk was higher, as they believed from the algorithm (not even sure if that rate of increase even has any significance either, which is my biggest problem with the operation)
Sounds like they could have done him a solid by taking him out in cuffs down to the station for their little talk.
Can we talk about the guy 2 mins 20 seconds in who using like 1 or 2 shades of grey and some squiggles made a perfect human likeness. Some people are so damn talented.
do you want to talk about that? ok, let's talk about that.
@Safwaan Yeah it is a developed skill, not so much talent involved, very very impressive
@@bboyhanvzla I just heard the Good Mythical Morning intro as I read this
I just miss the games analysis videos
@Safwaan No one cares if you knew, clearly the original commenter didn't. Or if he did, he should have linked it like that.
“Your mom is one and so is your sister”
There was such a better way to word that
He knew
This is absolutely horrifying. Like, I knew this would be happening secretly, but actually seeing it is terrifying.
if anyone has watched psycho-pass , this is eerily similar , having some algorithm do the calculation for crime , just a interesting thought
I was thinking the same. I feel like all those kind of predicting algorithms get us closer to a dystopia.
"Zero" is even worse.
Psycho-pass is emotions based though. This video is more like minority report.
@@GameTimeWhy hmm.... minority report is more clairvoyance than big data (even if, for an outsider, that looks the same)
@@wernerviehhauser94 that's why I said "more like". Minority report is clairvoyance but it's judging someone before a crime is committed like this algorithm. Psycho-pass has nothing to do with crimes and everything to do with " clouded minds".
The police told him his social credit score was too low
CCP approved
But in golf score language
"We're sorry mate, but because that one time you skipped work without reporting to the executives, we've gotta arrest you now."
Worst part of the last question listed is that there is clearly a Social Status Number that can ruin you by doing the exact things we believe are Moral. As in helping people to lower their number, but raising yours so that later in life lower numbers will not associate with you due to your moderately high number, and those high numbers you tried helping not associating either because they stayed high and moral implications mean they are disassociating to try to help you back, or the lower numbers have to find someone else to average their score due to the diminishing returns of averages. All because of these numbers and their glass ceilings.
Tl;dr being the good guy here will mean that you will live alone and friendless.
Welcome to China. They are quite literally already doing this and have been for a while. Everyone has a social credit score and it fluctuates based on things like what you buy, where you go, what your education is, where you work, who you associate with (and what their score is), whether or not you have loans, if you're broke, if you don't pay back your loans, if you've been arrested, if you've spoken against the government, if you participate in protests, how you vote, just tons and tons of different things all effect your social credit score. People there already refuse to associate with people that have low scores for fear of hurting their own. They don't even want to be around them AT ALL and they outcast them from society. It's a terrifying system that I hope I'll never have to experience in my life.
If you think about, the whole "algorithm" is profiling with made up MATH.
You will be shot soon for being in a polr black neighborhood with gangs, Now is "algorithm cuantify this factor and give us the same amswer".
Moral is written in lowercase.
@@orlandomoreno6168 It is acceptable in the west to capitalize a word for effect look it up. If you are gonna be a grammar nazi, be a good one... Sloppy grammar nazis just expose themselves as power tripping creeps on the internet every day.
@@NotMe-ej9yzI agree.
Sweet Jesus this program glows brighter than the NSA playing laser tag. This is one of the most extreme invasions of privacy I've heard of since the Snowden leaks.
How exactly was anyone's privacy "invaded"? They're not acquiring any information they didn't already have available to them through the guy's own interactions with them.
@@bpj1805 the fact that they are collecting information about personal relationships is something I find quite alarming.
@@bpj1805 in terms of psychological health, being contacted by a government agency to be informed that they're actively aware of you, making decisions about you, and taking action on those decisions feels very invasive. The being contacted and having it confirmed that they're tracking data about you is almost more psychologically disturbing than the vague suspicion that they are or the knowledge "yeah we're all on lists on a computer somewhere."
Also in terms of social wellbeing, being contacted in a way as visible as police coming to his house had serious repercussions.
@@alexia3552 So you would prefer if they don't contact you at all? And do not warn you of your probability being involved in a violent crime?
@@drakejoy2902 At the very least, they shouldn't just show up at his house. Only by showing up, it is clear that it can cause more harm than good, depending on the situation.
This reminds me of that part in Gulliver's Travels where Gulliver says that doctors will kill people instead of admitting their prognosis was wrong
something that is still true to this day, that's why you should often ask for a second opinion if you dont think your doctor is correct
sure you may not be a professional but it doesnt hurt to get the opinion of a second professional if you're hesitant to accept the first doctor's prognosis
@@FantasmaNaranja not so much as killing as don't want to admit their wrong though (like everyone else).
@@RedIceberg yeah the issue is that not admitting when you're wrong in the medical field kills people
@@FantasmaNaranja In the book, he says they literally kill them intentionally (like feed them poison, and as such are very useful to some select ppl). But yea, that's valid too.
I hadn't heard that before and oh wow is that true
If I lived in a place that used such “tools”, my hesitance to meet new people might actually be justified.
Established Titles isn’t legit btw, if anyone was wondering. You do not have the right under Scottish law to describe yourself as a lord or lady due to ownership of a souvenir plot. Also, a bunch of other shady stuff that would take forever to put here. Look it up, and don’t buy their stuff.
I like the idea of using this kind of a system to find out who would most benefit from resources provided by a social worker. But the social worker program would need to be appropriately funded and able to provide real help.
Yeah, not only does the algorithm need polishing to give more useful predictions, our social safety nets need to be WAY stronger to have any effect. Free coverage of mental healthcare services alone would make a massive impact, and getting free coverage of prescriptions too would do a lot more. Although, the fundamentals of secure housing and income need to be really nailed down first, no one can be mentally healthy while dealing with financial insecurity.
In short, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
More full length videos like this please I miss vsauce of any context
Maybe less preaching, more teaching next time.
It is true that anyone you're regularly associated with will make you more likely to do certain things you wouldn't normally do, but the US justice system trying to predict the future under that premise is like asking a 4 year old to run a nuclear power plant alone.
The "Heat List" reminds of the premise of (probably a lot of things, but specifically) an anime called Psycho Pass. The show involves a lot of _indistinguishable-from-magic_ advanced future technology, but the idea is similar.
Anime sux
@@senorpepper3405 Thank you for this valuable and insightful feedback. Truly the world is bettered.
@@Bluhbear and thank you for your reply sir. And in such a timely fashion ✨️
There's a show called Person of Interest that take this to the logical extreme, where a supercomputer can reliably tell if anyone is about to be a victim of crime.
Who's responsible? 10:00
At the end of the day, I'd still hold the shooter responsible for shooting.
yes.... but the shooter lifes in a socioeconomic system.
As an individual, he is responsible for his actions, but as a society... people in a similar situations are just likely to become shooters.
So, will I understand not moaning the shooter, as a society we have to try to catch people long before they go on the trajectory of getting involved in violent crimes.
Man this sounds like something straight out of Psycho-Pass
I remember I used to watch your mind blow back when I was 14. You are a part of my life wether you want to be or not. Thank you for the entertainment over the years glad to see you’re still uploading
Hmmmm, and 20 years ago, the movie "Minority Report " came out. This story you present is super spooky!
Imagine living in a country where people are not just shot at all
Knives will replace guns. After they take away knives, blunt objects will do the job. Once they take away all possible form of weapon then fists is the only option. The use of a weapon is not the problem, the intent to do harm is. And then the cycle continues, defend against a fist, get a stick and escalate until we are back at guns.
@@o0Donuts0o i agree, but having such unregulated access to weapons able to kill a person by the pull of a Trigger sets the ease and therefore the boundry to kill so dangerously low that i feel much more comfortable with the thought of getting my head kicked in than getting shot by someone in the blink of an eye. Yes grabbing the problem by its roots would be the best Option even though unlikely, still no ordinary human on this Planet should be alble to own a weapon with such killing potentional than a gun and the implementation of this to me is much more realistic than defeting the intent of violence completely. The meere concept of normal pedestrians owning and carrying guns is mindboggling to me. Sorry for spelling, english not first language.
@@thebrou9462 unregulated, lol
@@o0Donuts0o Knives replaced guns in the UK, but the homicide rate is still 4x lower.
@@robo3007 You might want to look into demographics for that answer
The crazy thing is, none of this is particularly far fetched or dystopic. Banks, insurance companies, landlords, schools, and more already use data to make decisions about your future. Banks use credit scores to determine eligibility for loans, which impacts whether you can buy things that will help you stay safe and build wealth (e.g. a house). And where you live plays a big role in determining your educational and job opportunities, which plays a role in your health and safety. It's already happening.
So essentially the AI runs on “ Show me your friends and I will tell you who you are”
Sounds like a case of self-fulfilling prophecy.
"Social influence spreads like a virus."
"LOOK I'M A LORD!!!"
absolutely hilarious. 10/10
Thank you for putting this information out there.
I've really been digging these socially conscious videos.
These stories about the relationship between big tech & law enforcement, and the harm they cause don't get nearly enough attention. And even when they do, they're seen as "a step in the right direction," particularly by legacy media-instead of what they actually (and usually) are: which is a well-established, over-funded police state finding and creating new tools to maintain the increasingly untenable status-quo.
I never thought Minority Report would become real
This is literally the plot of Person of Interest.
Social network theory has other names:
"Birds of a feather flock together."
"Show me your friends, and I'll show you who you are."
Even before the internet and social media apps were a thing, it was a common belief of the company you keep reflects who you are.
Having data about who you are arrested with makes a very limited social network model which no amount of algorithms can fix.
Even a well intentioned government with too much power will end up doing extreme harm.
Yes. But in this case it sounds like the neighbours are the harmful ones.
I had literall chills at the very end
Kevin, this is freaking amazing. Thanks for continuing to make these awesome videos.
Very well done. This is a great example of someone turning CZcams into a source of intelligent dialog and public good. The question hangs out there, doesn’t it? The social science and its application through technology are accurate, and getting more accurate all the time. Yet how do we accommodate this powerful force in a quirky and imperfect social milieu? How can it be tuned to better serve the human factor? This is an example of that issue as it applies to law enforcement, but that same central dilemma will come to effect every sphere of human activity. We’ve always thought that simply being true was the ultimate and final standard, the appropriate arbiter for every decision, but is it?
This feels a lot like psycho pass
this guy does something impossible, he makes me want to study math
Trusting statistics that you don't understand is like trusting a fortune teller. They may have noticed a coffee stain on your shirt and paler skin where the wedding band should be. They may have looked you up on social media and confirmed your recent divorce. Doesn't mean their prediction for the future is accurate to a meaningful extent, unless you specifically make it so.
I feel like a crime drama show where a person in the police force uses this list to choose their next victim would be an interesting concept, if not possibly very politically charged
As thwy should
I'm against these things, it just removes the cause-effect relationship. The algorithm says you will do X, you then do X, "told you so" argument literally
***casually coughs in Chinese social engineering****
(Walks outside)
216!
(gunshot)
(Laughtrack and sitcom laughter)
3:21 Well, that was uncalled for...
7:37 "The police trying to warn him and aid him ended up harming him and his social status in his community"
sounds like a normal day in the Muslim and rural areas in the Philippines.
That reminds me the Person of interest (2011) TV series.
That is one of the most interesting things I've seen all month. Will def look more into that
I hadn't heard about this, somehow. This has to be to a large part of the inspiration for Person of Interest. The whole "we know you're going to be involved in a crime, but don't know if you'll be a victim or perpetrator" thing seemed to me like a plot device to make things more mysterious...now I see why it was used.
This is how person of interest works
They don’t know if you are going to be the shooter of the victim... well there is one way to solve that problem
Im loving this criminal court analysis series
bro was asking all the important questions at the end it made my little depressed brain hurt but happy at the same time
What if you have many friends and you get robbed by a random guy, will that make their scores go up and if so, isn't it kinda breaking the model?
Here is another reason math shouldn’t be used to arrest people.
well, he was not arrested. He was just visited by the cops to get told he will shoot or get shot. Then then shot by his neighbors because of the police visit. But he's no snitch, so no arrests.
Yeah. We can put people In Numbers, but Not our legal system...
This is actually the practical use that your teachers always tell you about for a niche math topic
@@arcanine_enjoyer Oh darn it. I should've studied calculus more before robbing that convenience store and shooting the cashier.
Algorithms like that, anyway.
the london heat list being called 'the matrix' makes andrew tates 'escape the matrix' idea even funnier
In school, what class would this be? If there is none we have to make one and educate people about these stories. Incredible stuff!
The film Minority Report is a cautionary tale not a how too manual.
They might as well just use wanted levels like GTA.
Like a 5-star hotel being raided by the FBI on end.
I was expecting a lot of "Person of Interest" convos.
The McNamara fallacy (also known as the quantitative fallacy), named for Robert McNamara, the US Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1968, involves making a decision based solely on quantitative observations (or metrics) and ignoring all others. The reason given is often that these other observations cannot be proven.
Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"
Classic “I’m from the government and I’m here to help” moment
Tha fact that the police intervened just added an extra variable to the algorithm, is there a way to use this kind of algorithm without altering the result or making it worse?
PS: This reminded me of "Person of Interest".
That's kind of the plot of Minority Report; they get three independent predictions and go with the majority, but the second prediction came based on the outcome of what would happen after the first prediction was reported, and the third prediction based on the outcome of the second, so they were all predicting entirely events from entirely different variables. But actual the output is just a simple "two yes, one no", reducing an extremely complex situation to a yes or no question.
As always, great video
Friendship is magic, and can apparently get you shot.
From what I understand, China is taking social credit to the next level by assigning score to every citizen. A person's social credit score determines things such as where they can be employed or whether they can take public transit. It's completely insane
So normal Chinese government behavior.
@@Naro_Rivers Taken to the extreme.
Wait till you find out about the American credit system
@@nurbnord7451 nice
That's kinda messed up. You'd think if you tell someone that your algorithm has calculated that he either will be shot or shoot someone that person would get a gun just to protect himself and thus increasing the chances even more..
If you think ahead about the possibilities of this, the future will become too scary to live in.
The smoke break theory feels weird. Whatever workplace I've been at, one guy smoked at the start. People joined him but did not start smoking, we just enjoyed the extra 5 minute break, fresh air, coffee and socialness every hour.
Hell, before that, some people smoked in my school but most just joined them for the talking. People from different countries I've talked to have reported VERY similar situations. Apart from the US, that was very accurate to this video.
hey man, given your interest in math and algorithm predictions you may want to look into predictive dispatching for EMS, we have a couple of counties locally that are implementing that into our dispatch system.
Sounds useful
Sounds like a black mirror episode of the girl who was trying to raise her social score and then she gave up and became a run away trucker
A guy knocks on our door and you think I'm the one who gets shot? no, I am the one who knocks.
thank you for that "snitches get stitches" screenshot, i needed a new cover photo
The real issue wasnt that the data was wrong. The data pointed at a real issue. A neighbourhood and social network of people that are averse to the police, prone to violence and suffer from severe social and financial disadvantages.
The issue is that instead of actually solving the problem they decided to look for a cheap and easy way to put a bandaid on it: by picking one or a handful of people to help.
Its not the data that is the problem - its the idea that you can somehow skip the part where you fix the actual problems.
"collect data that which is usually flawed or biased"
Let me correct that for you, it's always biased,
Data collection per definition is biased because a choice is made on what to collect and how to collect it
"They showed up at my door and said you're either going to be shot or shoot someone."
"Then they asked, have you ever tried sugar... or PCP?"
By the way those supposed Land titles are fake. Scotland laws doesn't allow it. Because apparently you cannot sell land that's under a certain amount. On top of that the land that they're supposed to be selling is protected land therefore you can't build there.
This sounds a lot like it's the early stages of the Sibyl System from the anime "Psycho-Pass".
person of interest has the same concept...good show
Criminally underrated video. I only found it as a suggested one to another, unrelated video - even though I'm subscribed. ☹️
Kevin being at 7000 on the heat list by making a video on it
The FBI at his door in 6 hours: "Sorry man you're on the list"
The FBI at his door in 6 hours: "Sorry man you're on the list, here's how we can help you with employment and mental health"
Who gets shot and go's "I'm not gonna snitch, I want them to get away with it"? I understand loyalty with friends, but not enemies
people who don't wanna get shot 50 times and have their house burnt down?
@@yammarques they already tried to kill him
I think it's kinda self protection for him. As in, if he reported the shooting to the police whoever shot him would understand that as a confirmation that he's a snitch and definitely shoot him again while they maybe would realize that he isn't working with the police if he doesn't report it. I mean it clearly didn't work but still seems to make more sense than to not report it out of neighbourhood-loyalty to some random guy who shot you