Are You Calculating Poker Equity WRONG?
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- čas přidán 20. 06. 2024
- 0:00 Equity Question
0:57 The 4-2 Rule
3:53 Should I Just Fold?
6:25 Work On Your Math Skills With My Workbook
Joe asks:
Let's say I am holding QJo in position heads up in a 3-bet pot and the flop comes 2h 5c 9s. Opponent bets 1/2 pot, giving me 3:1 odds. With 2 overcards, I have 24% equity to make top pair by the river. Here's where I'm confused: He's offering me the 3:1 odds to see the turn, but my equity is only close if I consider both the turn and the river. So if my odds of hitting on the turn are roughly 12%, do I have to fold to the bet on the flop?
I go over a common misconception between pot odds and equity when you don't account for your opponents possible range and whether we should continue even if our odds don't justify it.
#potodds and #equity
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I like to think it's Tony G on the other end, who qualified holding A2. There's a brick on the turn and on the river it's an "Ace from space"
Thank you for this explanation. I was definitely using the 4/2 rule to calculate what I thought was my equity instead of my odds of improving.
it's really great you're asking these questions and being open minded and I'm gonna keep talking and saying that as if I'm going to answer the question until the video ends without me actually saying anything else.
The best explanation of the 4/2 rule. Thank you! That really helps
Howard Lederer explained the 4/2 rule better than anyone over 10 years ago. This guy didn't explain why its multiplied by 4 or 2.
@@darren4635 he did actually. It’s multiplied by 4 because you have double the opportunity. Common sense imo
@@darthvilithrax574 you missed my point
@@darren4635 ummmmmm no? You missed the point of the video since you asked a question that was answered
To be closer to the exact percentage it’s outs multiplied by 4 minus 2 and when using 2 it’s outs multiplied by 2 plus 2
Like the hand reviews, my book is coming Tuesday. Any videos on the workbook chapters would be much appreciated 🙏
Good idea!
This clears things up thanks
splitsuit off topic and a bit of a brainteaser but i figured you'd be best to get advice from for this question. If you have two separate simulations. 1 is if turn pot is 100 and hero is in position in a 2 way and always checks his 19% equity/flush draw and no more money ever goes in for this simulation vs simulation 2 where turn pot is also 100 but hero calls a pot bet with 19% equity and when he hits his flush he always gets 10x the river pot in value.
In a long term infinite sense, which simulation will generate more profit. It's like sim 1 gets a 19.2% positive penalty and sim 2 gets a 17% positive penalty.
in other words sim 2 is getting 32:1 with a 4.3:1 chance which equates to a 17% edge. 530 (ev) divided by 3100 (pot plus reward) = 17%
vs sim 1 who gets 19 ev divided by 100 (pot plus reward) which equals a 19% edge. Therefore sim 1 is surely the more attractive long term option right?
One of the best, thank you
Thanks for videos and hi from Turkiye.
i know this is an old video but i have a lingering question that i can't seem to figure out. where does the 4% come from? i understand that the computer software does all the simulations instantly but if i were in a live game, how would i estimate my equity? if the 4/2 rule is only to be applied for the outs that will give you the nuts, how would you estimate your equity in this hand after the flop?
Good video
The Braun stroman of Poker
😂
1:54 here it comes ! +ev play
James, should we also consider the equity of turning a Tx that would make us open ended? How would that work?
Good question that I was also wondering.
that would be the implied odds? he said he's done a video on this which I'm gonna look for
Is that hand player something you made that we can have access to?
It's just an adobe illustrator file I create images from but we do have a few other internal tools we might release in the future
am i a nit because depending on player type im folding QJ preflop here. unless they are 3 betting from blinds a ton. almost certainly folding c-bet here.
This was one of my biggest problems, its not 24% its 12% then you likely have to put in more on the river if you call and miss, i nevber considered the reraise option though, thanks for that, i dont like folding when the maths isnt right for one card, but is for 2 but i dont see another way, other than reraising wich i obviously cant do EVERY time.
a good idea is to x your outs by 3 if you think youll get a free card half of the times
When multiplying by 4 on the flop do we not consider K 10 as outs that can improve our hand to a flush?
You need to calculate conditional probability but the chances of a 10 following a K or vice versa are very very low. I am not sure if we apply it here.
Too rare to need to take into account. It’s just getting the general equity that’s key
How do i send in a hand? It was in a live game and the splitsuit.com/hh dosent work??? :(
wait you said x2 if wanna see 1card, x4 for 2 cards while google says x4 if wanna see flop or river x2 if wanna see the river after the turn, imabit confused
Is calling a 3bet with QJo too loose? Unless villain is 3betting pretty loose it's hard to think of what hands QJo would be ahead of preflop.
definitely too loose. calling 3 bets with QJo even in position is -EV...it's likely your top pair outs aren't good because you could be up against AQ, AJ, or even KQ and super unlikely to hit the runner runner straight on that flop. Just fold pre and save yourself the chips. A chip saved is a chip earned
I disagree that it’s ”definitely too loose.” I think it’s dependent on the player in the big blind and your image at the time.
I will three bet from the big blind with a much wider range of hands if the opening raise is coming from the button as opposed to an early position. Especially if it’s a player that thinks like @Ryan Fowler (the other person who answered your question) and is likely to automatically fold to a 3 bet here without his strongest range. So calling with a QJo in position against a player like myself will probably slow me down from three betting in the future and QJ is probably ahead of my range.
If the player in the big blind is a player that only plays his hand value and is likely to have a very narrow range then, yes, QJo is probably a trouble hand and should be played cautiously.
@@jeremylynskey9265 I agree it's definitely player dependent but I feel like you'd be hard pressed to find someone 3 betting that wide in the big blind. They'd need to be 3 betting as bad as like 97o to make QJo off a profitable call there. Do you really 3 bet that wide from the BB?
@@ryanfowler3154 Calling $30 more preflop you would only need 33% equity. If I were in the BB and would 3 bet with any pocket pair (which I can see myself doing against a player who folds easily to 3 bets with even less.) QJo has 40% equity against that range not to mention position. Add broadway QJo + and you still have the needed 33% equity. Add even more hands to the big blind range and your equity starts going up. I could be wrong but I don't think the BB needs as little as 97o to make calling from the BTN profitable.
@@jeremylynskey9265 that makes sense. I'm just a damn nit sometimes lol
What is this platform used for evaluation called?
I think you're referring to Flopzilla Pro: www.splitsuit.com/shop/flopzilla-splitsuit-edition
This begs the question, what IS QJ's equity on the flop?
Equilab =)
Yeah what’s a 1/2 pot flop and half pot turn is that correct odds lol
Depending on the opponent, this is an easy ‘raise’ to 150-200 ish. At my regular table this is an objvous continuation bet after a miss.
I could see pocket aces, kings or 9s - but there also pocket 10s through Q that won’t feel too happy in this spot.