Why Spain's Socialist Party Won the Catalan Elections
Vložit
- čas přidán 13. 05. 2024
- Sign up to Brilliant and you'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription: brilliant.org/tldr/
On Sunday, Catalonia held regional elections that saw separatist parties fail to secure a majority in what is a significant win for PM Pedro Sanchez. So in this video, we'll break down these results and what they mean for the future of Spanish politics.
🎞 TikTok: / tldrnews
🗣 Discord: tldrnews.co.uk/discord
💡 Got a Topic Suggestion? - forms.gle/mahEFmsW1yGTNEYXA
Support TLDR on Patreon: / tldrnews
Donate by PayPal: tldrnews.co.uk/funding
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
//////////////////////
1 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Podemos...)
2 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
3 - www.politico.eu/article/spain...
I disagree with the message on this video, I really don't think Spain's going back to a two-party predominance. Both PP and PSOE are waaaay off from forming a majority goverment just by themselves, just look at the most recent elections' results.
Yeah, that was a stupid take. But to be fair, they are british.
@@uvbe TARD
As a Spaniard, I can assure you that two party predominance is getting bigger, just compare the share of votes of PP and PSOE on 2019 and in 2023.
@@alexcasanova15But nowhere near to any party being able to govern alone. Other parties are there to stay, even if they stagnate in favor of the larger parties.
You're misrepresenting their message. They are saying that the two-party system has been gaining momentum in the last few years, but never claimed that their pre-crisis dominance was back.
Analysis of each partie:
PSC (federalist centre-left): biggest winner. With its massive win in the urban areas, specially in the Barcelona's area, they are the only ones who can form a non-nationalist government in decades, but probably they still need the support of some catalan separatist partie
Junts (separatist centre-right): pyrrhic victory, it is true Puigdemont has become again in the leader of separatist movement, but the total sum of independentist has fallen a lot, and a big part of their voters have chosen the abstention. The decade of the "proces" has passed and his speech seems to have lost significance
ERC (separatist centre-left): biggest loser. The polarization strategy of the PSC and junts, together with their mismanagement in their legislature, has devoured them and has lost many votes, which have gone to the other two parties. It is important to say that a part of their voters are not fully convinced independentists and are also supporters of the psc
PP (unionist centre-right) : winner. They have absorbed the voters of the extinct Ciudadanos, but they have captured much more votes from other parties. Still, they are not strong enough to be decisive but they have achieved great growth
Vox (unionist (far) right wing): They remain and are not decisive, but taking into account that the PP has grown so much without taking away any seats, which would be normal, I would say that it is almost a victory. Its base seems strong in this region, and the same cannot be said for other
Comuns (left wing, federalist): it is a bad result but could have been worse. The concentration of the vote in the PSC, as is already happening throughout Spain in general, seems to be slowly damaging them due to the lack of their own profile compared to the great left-wing party
CUP (far left separatist): very bad result, without a doubt their voters have opted for puigdemont or abstention to a large extent, the widely distributed vote also harms them with the D'Hondt system
AC (far right separatist): The new far-right party that joins the reactionary wave in Europe has entered parliament, but with little force, although they were very close to reaching 3% of the vote in Barcelona. Its base is still small but could grow more given the weakness of other pro-independence parties and the winds of change in Europe.
Thanks you for the detailed explanation!!❤
Well summed up. My only issue is I'd consider PP right wing, not far right but not centre-right either. In reality voters from both PSC and Junts consider to be around 4-5 in the 0 (left) and 10 (right) spectrum, making them centrist, and PP voters often consider themselves to be 6-7 on the same scale.
@@MrEnric98 I'm not sure what the PP is like in Catalonia but in normal politics calling the PP right-wing seems like a mistake to me, on a national scale it works this way:
- PODEMOS: Extreme left WOKE and collectivist
- SUMAR: Far left decaffeinated version of Podemos, it is slightly less radical than Podemos and its purpose is to take the votes that Podemos is losing with each election
- PSOE: (Left) is gradually moving further to the left, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish it from the other leftist forces (the only real difference is that they are not WOKE, they are not collectivists and they do not create laws to release rapists)
- PP: Center, If we take most of the PP's proposals and overlap them with those of the PSOE, they are not so different. The PP is the most fiscally responsible and slightly more corrupt version of the PSOE. They have moved slightly to the right only because among young people the left has become very unpopular.
- VOX: It is a strange type of right since it brings together all the factions that do not want to be part of the PP, here there are a lot of forces that collide a lot: Nationalists, Religious, Traditionalists, some liberals, etc... These forces collide a lot since there is still no one that has won power within these, which is why many of their proposals are confusing and collide. It reminds me a little of the first version of Podemos before Pablo took all the power within it and achieved its electoral peak.
@@segiraldovi what you weirdos on the right mean by "woke" remains a mystery, why did you even feel the need to put it in all caps; btw vox is not strange at all, they're just straight up fascists
Why does the left-wing givernment keep winning?
Socialists allied with separatists while center right allies with more radical right wing parties? This gave some "Homage to Catalonia" flashbacks 🥲
To put things simple center right has no choice but ally with far right. The rest of parties are anti-right (even anti-liberal) so there is no room to dialogue
I don't see it. Unlike 1936 the polls are fairly strongly for the PP at the moment, not for the left.
@@MagicNash89 I know, it wasn´t that serious comment nor do I expect it to repeat 1936, but they (partly) share those political alliances and so it reminded me the book and I wrote it. I don´t claim that the situation is same.
Who is CNT
@@tefky7964Hell no 🤣
Make your mind up TLDR. One week you say it’s on the rise, the next it’s dead in the water
complex political matters need multiple points of view to be considered. Then, viewers can "make up" their minds about it.
Tories quite looked in the rise at 2020, indeed, it may looked like they could've stayed well over two decades in power
I am from Barcelona, so I can tell you a bit about it, our polls posted a lot of different results, from the separatists right movement junts winning the election to it falling on third place. And while it is true that most polls did point out a decline in votes going to separatists movements, that does not necessarily mean that they are themselves in decline. Here in Spain we have sort of a saying to vote usefully, with that we basically mean to vote either PP or PSOE which are the two main parties, so as not to spread the vote. In this last government in Catalunya there have been a lot of people who want the independence that have expressed their disconformity with how ERC has not pushed the independence process (formally known as “el procés”), as such there has been a high number of separatists that have not voted this last election, meaning they are underrepresented in the Catalan parliament, but the issues grow further in that sense. ERC in itself had its voters spread thin between those that value the independence above all else and those that value social measures above independence. According to polls ERC voters were divided 50/50, this of course means that ERC could not really campaign for one or the other, and meant that due to this lack of focus those that valued social measures voted PSC even if it has more of a center-right view in economic measures and tourism, because of that useful vote I talked about. And those voters that valued independence above all else voted Junts because they were specifically appealing to separatists voters in this election. I myself voted ERC because I value their social measures and their left wing views, and although I don’t believe in independence I do believe in the right for the people to decide, which is why I do want to have the opportunity to vote in a referendum of auto determination.
Hope this explanation helps understand the situation a bit, it ended up being somewhat long and hopefully not too messy to understand😅
Theyre putting forward different perspectives and theyre putting it up as a thought. This is a news channel, you'll have to use your own brain for it, if you want news to tell you exactly what you need to believe, go watch RT.
@@Dani-sc7uw "Although I don't believe in independence, I do believe people have the right to choose."
Would you mind letting Unionists in Scotland who have been consistently beat since 2007 in Scotland and 2015 at the UK level that? They don't seem to understand democracy isn't a once in a lifetime event.
Impossible to fully understand the situation wihtout analysisng the 900 K abstentionism, asking of which portion of it were independentist voters refusing to vote the Indy parties. Participation in these elections were one of the lowest in the last 15/20 years, only surpassed by the Covid 19 elections.
Abstention in catalan regional elections always comes from non-independence voters,, that's why in 2017 was a better result for anti-independence parties with much higher participation.
@@user-bm5zb2zw2f Usually yes, but not in this one. Abstention has risen in places traditionally independentist and fallen in places with PSOE voters.
@@4flx17 2017 catalan regional elections prove the opposite
In the Spanish General Elections of 2023 the turnout in Catalonia was higher (62,68% of the electorate), but the results for the pro-Independence parties were even worse (27,13% of the votes).
Ciudadanos and PSC were the most voted parties in 2017 and 2021.
The funniest thing is that catalan nationalist far right is forming
don't laugh at it, i'm living there and i'm experiencing first hand, it was enough with VOX, we dont need now an extreme right independentist party too
Far right nationalism is ethnocentric, and racial purity is a complete fiction, meaning nationalism is the most unstable sentiment to build a polity on, and the proof of that is the frequency of polities dying and being created in Europe.
Republic of Finland (1917)
Republic of Poland (1918)
Kingdom of Yugoslavia (1918)
Republic of Austria (1919)
Kingdom of Hungary (1920)
Irish Free State (1922)
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) (1922)
Republic of Turkey (1923)
Albanian Republic (1925)
After World War II:
German Democratic Republic (East Germany) (1949)
Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) (1949)
After Dissolution of Yugoslavia:
Slovenia (1991)
Croatia (1991 - re-emerged as independent)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1995)
Republic of Serbia (1992 - re-emerged)
North Macedonia (1991)
Montenegro (2006)
21st Century:
Serbia and Montenegro (2003-2006)
Montenegro (2006 - separation from Serbia and Montenegro)
Kosovo (2008 - declared independence from Serbia)
Look at the mess these ethno-centrists cause. Even monarchies were more stable than the polities they create.
Meaning?
@@BOZ_11 Well obviously the leftists won this election in Catalonia, but the right-wing will take place soon enough in both Catalonia and generally in the rest of Spain as well, as in Europe generally. You cannot "bang your head", as in "go against or sideways" of the biological reality, importance and value of each European ethnicity and specifically each tribe/region as in the case with Catalonia for example. The monetary thing is a separate discussion, but Catalonia has a good level of economics, and will of course raise the economy-level even more as an autonomic region.
Now since i left a comment with facts that annoy you, i add that your "listing" is not understandable of what you want to say. I am sure that you must be of mixed origin though, besides just plain leftist.
@@aetherion7do not break up e,Pires and Nelson Mandela and Ghandi were terrible fascists. I think.
You barely talked about Catalonia?!
Is this video about Spanish general elections or Catalan elections? Very little about Catalan politics.
In this election the popular vote has been with the non independentist side for the first time in several decades. Due to lack of motivation from part of the traditional independentist voters, despite having several options, from far left to far right parties that are pro secession
The majority of the popular vote in Catalonia has always been against independence, except in the unusual elections of 2020. The pro independence parties had the majority in the parliament, but not the popular vote, not even in the 2017 elections.
Several decades? The CDC wasn't in favor of independence until quite recently (many things changed in the 2000s)
Catalan politics are heavily influenced by politics of the rest of the country. Same as politics in Spain are influenced by politics in Catalonia.
@@DiotimaMantinea-qm5yt Because Catalan elections have the same problem that's seen in most of the world's democracies: rural voters getting disproportionate power due to poorly-drawn districts.
I live near Barcelona and, right now, the only politician I would like is someone that can fix Rodalies. I know that's a lot to ask, but dreaming is always free.
All of the pro-independence parties, regardless of left or right, received more than 40% of the vote share tho… The PSOE should celebrate but still be mindful of them.
TLDR, you should make a video about Belgium’s upcoming federal election.
Edit: Regardless, Sánchez is still tied to the Junts in Madrid until at least 2027.
Isn't it led by a lefty government
not the left. the separatist left party dropped dramatically. separatism in cataluña is mostly conservative- far right
@@MarioLanzas. All combined more than 40%, and the ERC still came third though…
Be careful of what you write in your comment, I do not want a bunch of Catalonians swarm over your “conservative” and “far right” terms.
@@mab9614the whole point is that if they are getting c40% of seats vs 60% for pro Spain parties, how on earth can they expect to have a referendum for independence?
@@mab9614I understand your point but they still are minority. But more importantly, these parties disagree on virtually everything beyond "we want independence", meaning that behind these 40% lies a very fractured would-be coalition.
After faillled referendum, Quebec saw increase for the liberals.
Catalans are in similar situations.
It is a slump, plus having leaders in exile is quite a handicap.
Opinion and identity are two different things, catalanism will never go away.
Right now Catalans are sort of grateful of the appeasement bringed by socialists. They may start to vote different depending on what Madrid do.
there are no leaders in exile, they are fugitives of justice... the ones who didn't run away and face the law are already freed.
How do you explain the rise of right-wing unionists PPC??
This whole catalan "problem" is a total fake ridiculous misleading shitshow, just systemic coercion to continue obtaining budget benefits over the rest of the nation (except the other historic scam, basque country tax exception), and the huge regional debt condonation and absorption by the central government.
Quebecers realized the Canadian Supreme Court would allow their Racist-Atheist programme to proceed without secession.
@@victorgomez4107 By the collapse of the right wing unionist Cs
I'm sorry but, what you said regarting the 2 party system is WRONG. That is not applicable in Catalonia or the Basque Country. There, the government was only in the hands of one of the 2 big Spanish parties for a very brief period of time (2009-2012 in the basque country and 2003-2010 in Catalonia) and due to coallitions with local parties, while for the rest of history both regions were governed by a regional party
The 2 biggest Spannish parties had always to contend with (and most times lose against) strong regional parties in those places and it will always be the case, since those 2 places are so different than the rest of Spain that the population thinks differently and even the 2 biggest parties adapt their programmes there and make them different to their policies in the rest of Spain
Being true what you say, in both regions the independent feeling is at the lowest level in decades, and young people don’t care about independece which is a clear message for the future.
@@felixcanas9446 I can assure you that many young people in Catalonia want independence.
@@janjarauta8706 Are you sure? They must have stayed confortably at home during this elections. Don’t seem very involved.
Catalonia's independence has been a whole meme from way before it became an international entertainment topic, here in Spain it resurfaces every few years. It's a pipe dream that some catalan politicians use to gain power while knowing it's never gonna happen, mainly because it's not feasible and half the people there would either revolt or move out.
El único independentismo factible en España es el Euskadi (pero solo Bizkaia, Gipuzkoa and Álava)
It was the first time that I saw you talk in a video, and you did really good!
-No mention about how Puigdemont could make Sánchez's gobernment fall in Madrid if he isn't given the Catalan presidency.
-Almost no time talking about whether the independence movement is dead or not and why did pro-independence parties fall in general.
-Way too much time talking about bipartidism, something that has little to do with Catalonia in particular.
-No mention on how and why did ERC (Catalan center-left) fall so much.
-No mention to the rise of both the right in general (the left fell 11 seats) and hard-right Catalan independists either, which is surprising in such a leftist region like Catalonia.
Why are TLDR videos about Spain so...bad? They focus on the wrong things, explain things poorly, or get things wrong straight up. And this video is actually one of the better TLDR videos about Spain, and still focused on random stuff instead of the elections, its effects on Spanish politics and on the independence movement.
Fully agree with this comment... 2nd most voted party in Catalonia is they key for Pedro Sanchez to keep his seat as prime minister and Puigdemont has already threatened them that no presidency = no support = potential spanish elections... that is a big topic that should have been mentioned in the video
100%, they are implying that before 2010 no government was supported by CC, PNV, CiU, ERC or BNG, they make every take wrong.
All TLDR videos are poorly researched, Spain is just a topic you understand enough to notice it.
@@andnowtheweather2948lol that makes sense
@@roiq5263 If one wants a un-glossed-over newsreport British posts
I liked the meme reference on the video. Nice touch!
I think this video does not take into account where did the vote go when the big parties started to not dominate the parlament. Despite being mentioned, Ciudadanos took a lot of the votes that would have gone to PP/VOX or PSOE, and I feel that the disappapearance explains far better the uprise of PP in the Catalan elections than the two party system making a big return. The other main reason that explains Catalans parlament result is the high absention when comparing with the election where the separatist had a majority, in 2021 and 2017, which is the main catalan way to punish the incompetence of ERC last legislature (in contrast of the slight aument of puigdemonts Junts+). In conclusion, I think your video ommits some important facts (Cs dissapearance and abstention) but you drew a logical conclusion from an incompleted picture which could be addressed. Great video tho ;)
There was a clear readjustment among the Left - from ERC to the Socialists, but Junts itself did very well, eclipsing ERC as the leading independence party. Also of note is that there was a noticeable shift to the Right - the Left/Far Left lost 9 seats and the Right/Far Right gained 9 seats in the 135 seat parliament, a swing of 18 seats.
Maybe the more prudent thing to say it is temporarily on hold. It's likely true that people want to move on from the 2017 crisis at this time, but to suggest that separatism is dead will come back to bite people in the rear.
This was very narrow. I dont think you're taking in mind the dynamics of catalan politics. Its not for certain that both large parties will be able to govern alone in the future AND its not certain Salvador Illa will be able to govern either. This is a good result for PSC and its their best ever but it's not a blank check on them or the two party duopoly. That was a bit of a stretch.
Speaking from the US, you do not want a two-party system... the "stability of government" is the same as partisan gridlock preventing meaningful progress. I don't see how this would be significantly different in Spain, or any nation regardless of system of government. It winds up one side undoing what the other did, back and forth accomplishing nothing but profits for those at the very top.
Our two party system was very different than the american one. It was a voting issue, not a systemic one. The US has FPTP which quite literally prevents any third party from gaining any power. In Spain, third parties can, and do emerge and flourish.
@@uvbe So the voting process is important it seems. In the US the electoral college basically steals every election now through gerrymandering districts, nepotism, etc., how does this part work in Spain?
The US two party system has made America the most successful economic and cultural for the past 100 years and largely driven our success for 200 years. Multi-party systems are politically unstable, create political insularism, minority governments that lack mandates to govern, and eventually authoritarianism when people get fed up with it. FPTP gives a mandate, creates ‘big tent’ governing requirements, and policies have time to grow and mature without being thrown aside at a whim to create some new temporary coalition.
It already happened in Spain but with the destructive component of independence parties for the last 26 years, who distort the winning parties in national elections to give them the few MPs votes they need to from government, and obtaining all kind of budgetary benefits, debt and tax conditions at the expense of the rest of the nation, and total control of their regional legislations, wich have give them the opportunity of shaping their educational systems (and their regional state media, less relevant nowadays) around the independence ideology, just to make sure the scam continues.
@@danielstewart8339 Any political system that incentivizes and attracts morally bankrupt, narcissistic individuals to seek positions of power within it... will reflect the lack of values in those individuals that it consists of. Any system can be corrupted if those that make it up have no idea how to honestly look within themselves and those same individuals use power to manipulate masses that are also fearing themselves and need to project that unto another group. I think that is the only way to change things meaningfully... each person has to their part to change, thereby changing the collective.
I think you might be overstating the idea that this is the end for the separatists. Collectively they still won more seats then any other party and unless the socialists are going to team up with the peoples party they are going to have to invite at least some of the separatists into a coalition.
This video is just complete nonsense. You skipped the Pacte del Majestic, understandably, because it would ruin the whole point of the video. Spain is never going back to a full bipartidism as nationalistic parties have a lot of power in multiple regions, there is more than just Catalonia and Euskal Herria)
I wish there was an your long cut off TLDR news❤
"separatists movements appeared from the crisis" is this a joke right?
Quiero oensar que se querían decir que se hicieron más fuertes (eso es verdad). Porque algunos partidos independentistas tienen entre 100 y 200 años de historia xD
No. Stop implying that because political parties that are for independence looses that the cause as a whole is a lost cause. It’s not, look at Quebec, despite not having the Independence party (the PQ) leadership in a while independence is slowly bouncing back up and the PQ is leading in the poll, which could mean a return of the independence question back to the main stage of politics. And that’s the case even if we lost 2 referendums and had our cause called dead over and over.
Sisters and brothers from Catalan and Scotland, keep on striving for freedom and liberty, we are with you ⚜️ 💙 💛.
Le copium lmao
the socialists who arent socialists..
All the political parties in Spain are Centre-Left, without exception, even PP and VOX.
The fire of freedom still burns in Catalonia, it only takes a charismatic leader to turn a spark into the brightest of fires
Freedom? 😂😂😂😂
As a Spaniard myself, I check your videos on my politics every once in a while to see how accurate you get (considering you have to squeeze so much information in just under 10 min). I'm always amazed by how well done and precise it is. It only makes me feel more reassured that your content on other countries is objective and accurate. Congratulations on such great journalism!
Its really not that accurate for outside of europe.
You should also take into account that many independentist media have been calling out a mass abstention to punish the independentist parties for not making any progress into any type of referendum or greater autonomy. I addition, first or second generations of Spanish immigrants have started to vote more in the Catalan elections, something that didn't use to happen before and during the 2000s. Obviously their turnout has increased due to independence, peaking in 2017 with a turnout of 79.09%, much greater than 2024's 57,94%. But even back then, with a much greater turnout independentism won by 70/135 MPs, so I think that if a clear route to achieve a referendum is drawn, independence could once again either win or at least achieve a decent amount of support.
That’s wrong because you considered ‘seats in regional parlament’ and not acurate votes since small towns and cities pro independence are over represented and big Barcelona metropolis with more than five million inhabitants are underrepresented and people there are more anti independence. Recent pols say de independence ranks about 40% and not independence ranks 60% and growing every pol.
@@felixcanas9446 since the first elections after the Spanish dictatorship that independentism has keep growing, quicker or slower, with ups and downs, but the general trend is to grow, this result is simply one of such apparent downs... And "not independence" doesn't mean against, there are always a considerable amount of indecisive and conformism (like 40-20-40, sometimes more, sometimes less, but for the last 40 years independentism had gone from an early 10-15% to about 50% the last best result recently).
So the opposite of your video from a couple weeks ago?
JJAJAJJA basicamente
They're not socialists they're social democrats. One is against capitalism, the other is very much not.
They're probably saying socialist party because the literal name of it is Spanish Socialist Workers Party.
But yeah they are not socialists and referring to them as such is kinda lazy
I disagree with the TLDR of this video.
It should be noted that while the PP made big gains, they only got 11% of the vote, hardly a massive amount.
The right-leaning independist coalition came in second with about 20%, while the left-leaning pro indpendence ERC was the big looser but still finished in third.
Notible are losses for both pro and anti-independence leftist parties and the entrant of a far-right pro-independence party (which of course you can already see in the comments by people claiming they are the 'only true pro-independence party', you know the game by now).
Ciudadanos also exited the Catalan parliament and seems dead for now (less than 1%) (although I can see a new liberal party forming in a few years).
PP only gained the votes Ciudadanos lost. they are the same thing, but Alianza catalana (far right) gained a lot. again showing that most of the separatist movement comes from conservative / far-right nationalists
they are left wing media.
PP’s best result ever was only 13%, so it’s still a pretty good result
@@MarioLanzas.3.8% isn't much
@@MarioLanzas. That's lying, Ciudadanos lost 100k votes and 6 seats while PP has won more than 200k and 12 seats.
Please do Austrian general election next
I like this video quite a lot, it is pretty impartial compared to what we see in spain. That's something I've noticed, when people talk about politics or history of their own country, since we are involved we know more than most foreigners but at the same time we have strong opinions on it and are partial, I like seeing what people from outside say to try and figure something objective.
It is worth mentioning that in 2021 Catalan election only 51% of the people voted, it went up to 58% this year which honestly is still too low, especially compared to the 2017 elections where 80% of the population that could vote did so, which to me makes that result the most significant in all elections. In the 2017 elections the anti independence party called ciutadans won although the separatists overall got more seats-
To put it into perspective in 2017 the psc got 606k votes and only 17 seats, this time it got 870k votes and 42 seats, so to me the biggest factor seems to be that people are not so into politics as they were before and that seems to favour the establishment.
Data out of context can be misleading sometimes
No political system that uses proportional representation will naturally have a two-party system
TL DR : Yes.
There should be a shorts channel called TLDR-TLDR
@@PingSharp I'm ded
1:40
As an American, what happened in Spain in 2008 looks fairly tame compared to what happened in the United States around that time.
Mortgages and massive inmigration played an important role on our crisis.
We didn't have George W. Bush as president ^^u
I think the oposite, this elections results are going to bring less stability since the two options to form a catalan goverment will undermine spanish goverment suport. So likely there is going to be new elections soon either in catalonia or spain.
2nd elections tend to damage small parties so it might look like there is a come back for the 2 party system but still far from being like before.
Also I miss some analisis of the very low participation of this elections and the impact it could have in a 2nd.
This video is too simplistic, but stills a valid point of view. Many things can happend.
David Cameron's "For the Record" on the bookshelf, LOL. No wonder they are shilling for the establishment duopoly.
I do think multi-party systems are better and stronger over a longer period.
Problem is, that many countries are not used to broad coalitions and/or minority governments. Both of which would allow more consensus based governing. However, unfortunately, many countries coming from a 2-party system tend to for a strict "government vs opposition" stance. Which in turn cripples the functioning of the government.
When it comes to this. I do think that Switzerland has probably the best set up. With a concensual government of 7 Chancellors. Which all have to be voted for in a majority by all parties. And (most important) are obliged to keep personal opinions quiet, and always present the common opinion of the council.
This way, a party cannot put itself out of the responsibility. But the whole parliament, can select the few people, that are in fact suitable as candidates. (This caused the situation, where hardline populists were only voted once, and then replaced by a more concensus based person, but from the same party)
Spain needs to be federal YA. We already are kind of a federalist system, but it’s time we become a federal state. I don’t even mention republic cause that’s impossible for now, but one can wish
And what's the difference between our current system and a "federalist system"? I'd say Spain is federalist, and more federalist than avowedly federalist countries like Germany. And why do you think that "being less mixed and more separate" is a solution. In reality Catalan Nationalists don't have any problems with Spain, but with those Catalans which are not, in their view, "Catalan enough".
Sigue soñando, no hay ninguna necesidad de federalizarse
Maybe politics has become more "divisive" because society has become more divided and the mainstream was not properly representing people's interests.
A return of a duopoly is such a silly idea when PP got 11%. PS also still need coalition partners
Dear Catalan friends,
Bonjour du Québec!
Independence is never dead. We must help each other and now that our movement is resurging, yours will be too.
5:20 - what's that tree? the UK tory party was standing???
It's the logo of Catalan Alliance (far right separatist party), with 2/135 MPs.
This is a pretty bad way of analyzing spanish politics bought at the national and catalan levels.
First absolut majorities are rare in Spain (only 4 since first election 1975), so PP and PSOE needed the support of minor left wing (IU), center, and regionalist/nationalist (PNV, CiU, CC, etc) parties. The thing is these parties were moderate and open-minded which meant they functioned as a hinge party. Regionali it wasn't a problem either, because the roles were reversed nacionalists ruled their regions with the support of constitutionalist parties.
The problem now is that these parties have radicalice and the liberals, Ciudadanos, missed their shot as a hinge party replacement and got erased from politics. Nationalists coalitions were so ideologically fractured that it was ungovernable and they pushed for the only joint point, independence.Even though Spain's constitution allows the independence, they went the ilegal route causing massive riots and creating (willingly or not) terrorist groups (thankfully no effective attacks). This kind of action shouldn't be ok in the eyes of any democrat. But as they were needed to create a functioning government at the national level their actions, as well as the political branch of ETA (EH-Bildu), were normalice and pardoned by the left.
Nationalists, as king makers, have been asking for ever increasing outrageous demands and the socialists gave in time after time. Now the Catalan nationalists (junts, ERC) have effective control of the country with just a handful of seats in congress
A comeback of the (almost) bi party system is not the right solution, we need to learn to speak more and bark less, then we might find the proper way to run this country.
As Otto von Bismarck said :“I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success.”
En realidad nunca ha estado viva. Mucho ruido, pocas nueces.
Ahora se han dado cuenta de que era una tomadura de pelo.
Since moving to Spain, I find these video's really helpful. It helps to understand the politics over here. Never seen a protest where I live though, people seem rather happy with the way things are going.
Isn't Europe already fragmented enough?
This video is not perfect, it's clear that TLDR has just recently been researching what's going on here in Catalonia, and their speculations are based mainly on previous data they gathered talking about Spanish politics. Still, I appreciate that they at least talk about the events and spread some awareness.
Independentist or not, I will never vote a party that adresses its voters in Spanish instead of Catalan. If you're allowed to vote in Catalunya, you've been there long enough to learn the language. Save the Spanish for Spain's general elections.
You got something wrong. The PP is not the peoples party, but the popular party. It doesnt seem important, but it does having in mind that PP is conservative and not socialist and saying peoples party seems to imply leftist cognotations. Apart from that, everything was great analysis👍
It looks like the PSOE, the ERC, and Sumar have enough seats for a three party government. Maybe that's the most likely outcome?
I used to rely on tldr videos to be informed about world politics,but this channel has gotten so much worse over the years,two thirds of a video about catalan independentism talk about politics outside of catalonia,and when they do,they skip extremely important parts like Carles Puigdemont (independetist leader of junts) beeing able to just make the socialist governent fail or alltogether bring it down with a motion of no confidence with PP and VoX if the socialist don´t give up the presidency of catalonia to him,and the sad part is that this is only one of many things of importance that this video skips,instead talking about the parties wich in all of spanish history have won absolute majorities 3 times,yet they claim that the coalition governments are a new thing
It pains me to see the relatively poor job they did when it came to investigating. As you say, the important thing about this election is not to see if there are absolute majorities, but rather the situation in which it puts the PSOE at the national level, since if they refuse to cooperate with Junts it is likely that Junts will no longer support them. And this could bring down the government
No independence please
I am highly skeptical and there's no evidence that this trend would last. The current PSOE government is relatively friendly to Catalan autonomy, so there's less strong of a push for independence. If the PP were to gain power, or even a PP-led coalition that includes Vox, it may generate a pro-independence backlash.
Even now, there's no way to form a government without some involvement of a major pro-independence party:
Likely the only real chance for a majority government is a PSC-ERC-Sumar coalition, gaining a bare majority of 68 seats. ERC will probably ask for a large amount of concessions before it will agree to it.
Other options:
A pro-independence minority government of Junts-ERC-CUP (possibly Alianca, but unlikely due to it's far-right stance) with 64 seats (or 66 with Alianca), which would rely on the PSC and Sumar to abstain
A PSC-Sumar minority government, which would be the weakest, holding only 48 seats, and would rely on the some combination of at least 2 pro-independence parties and/or the right-wing PP (PSOE's main rival nationally) to abstain (such as ERC-PP-CUP abstention, or Junts-ERC abstention)
Really don’t want to become like Italy 🇮🇹
Why my comments on Russian influence are being removed?
it's not comments biased against any side getting removed, I donno what the method is but it's stupid, I have random non-political comments getting shadowbanned for no good reason, although any comment I've put about a 2 $t4te solotion has mostly gotten removed, at the same time, I think if it has certain words in it it gets banned, its so stupid
One might think that the abstentionism of the independentism somehow worked, punishing ERC and making pretty difficult, if not impossible, to form a government, it may compel to the main pro-independence parties to get on each other (Junts+ERC+CUP) or simply forcing to repeat elections... PSOEc should be grateful to this abstentionism for their flimsy/weak apparent "victory"...
Sorry but the timeline at the intro is a mess. You make it sound like Catalan and Basque separatism is a new thing (they can be traced back to the XIXth century, yes they went on the rise after the crisis but they were already important and in many times ruling parties), also like Vox preceded Ciudadanos and Podemos (Vox stayes irrelevant for many years; when Podemos irrumped, Ciudadanos was growing in Catalonia and seized the opportunity to jump to the national level; only when Ciudadanos started decaying Vox started to be -sadly- relevant)
4:35 This part is understandably simplified, but I think you miss the point of the ambiguity within the blocks. PP isn't exactly pro-centralism; they may praise national unity very vehemently but they seem very comfortable with autonomies/federalism, and really don't seem that they want to shake that beehive except for maybe hardliners. They also have their own style of regionalist leadership in places like Madrid.
On a side note, "devolution" is a very British-based term that sounds a bit wrong for Spain. Political powers under the Spanish constitution aren't something to be "given back"; it's just that they can be distributed between Autonomy and Central state in different ways
This bit is just my personal opinion but leftist/progressive Spaniards were OK with the Psoe-Podemos alliance. I'd say Podemos' scandals and quick path to self-destruction is a big factor (they, being a vocally very feminist party, "accidentally" released dozens of r4pists due to a miscalculated bill, among many other slips). Had they been smarter, they would have capitalized on the government's best feats like PSOE did. But since Podemos self-destructed, their sucessor Sumar seems satisfied to just continue existing.
PSOE candidate studies to receive the help of the far right party Vox to become Catalan president. Only abstention is necessary with the agreement that Barcelona mayor got.
What would Orwell think if he were alive today?
Well, Orwell was more Right Wing as he grew older, so he would campaign for VOX by now.
disappointed probably but he was also back in the day
You cannot make a video about Catalunya's recent history by talking mainly about Spain and Madrid. You ignored a lot of the matters that are actually important about catalan history and politics. It's ironic because this kind of spanish-centric paternalism is one of the reaons we want to have our own country.
The results don't seem to show that you want to have your own country. Most Catalans are not like you
I understand the simmering tensions and history between PSOE and PP, but I don't get how its so much easier for the German CDU/CSU and the SDP to work together rather than the two Spanish parties.
Because in Spain the Civil War rhetoric is kept alive by the Left and perpetuated by new "memory laws" every time they arrive at the government (the 2007 "law of historical memory" and the 2022 "law of democratic memory"). The objective of these laws is to have an official narrative of the things that happened during the Republic (1931-1936) and the Civil War (1936-1939): the official culprits of everything are the Right, whereas the Left is blameless and legitimate "freedom fighters".
Pro-independence parties have always had 45%+ of the total votes in Catalonia, since we have democracy. If has nothing to do with the rupture of the bipartisan system. Moreover given the People's party (PP, right) is irrelevant in both Catalonia and Basque Country. The fact that they are below that % now is more about abstentionism because of disappointment towards the pro independence parties since 2017/2021 and socialist party (PSOE) playing a good role.
44-48% of the votes are clearly insufficient. And the numbers are not going up, but down. In 2024 there were 1.348.183 pro-independence votes; in 2017 they were 2.079.340
Spain is mainly a 4 partie system right now
Not really.
Literally a couple weeks ago you were saying the opposite!? Make up your mind
Im sorry TLDR News EU but this is not the right analisys, first you focused too much on the national two party system, when the focus should have been the catalonian politics. Also, the parliament is divided by forces of all ideological spectrum (from far left to far right) in both independentist and unionist versions (resulting in a duplicity and therefore making almost impossible conforming majorities). The result is that, for the first time in democracy the nationalist/independentist lost the majority and now "los Constitucionalistas" make an absolute majority (PSC, PP, VOX) although there wont be an alliance because of ideological differences. We have to sum the Comuns/Comunes-Sumar which is not independentist but neither a pure "Constitucionalista". Nevertheless most surely PSC will make an alliance with ERC (Left Independentists) and Comuns-Sumar, so the loose of their majority will make little difference because they will be in goverment equally. (There is a possibility of an Indepentist governent led by Puigdemont if he finally blackmails Sanchez)
I'm dictator for life of my own independant technocratic mancave state.
very innacurate conclusion. Remember you pointed out in the beginning how Pedro Sanchez is being held by the Independentist catalan party of Puigdemont (junts) at Congress, if a trade-off for the Presidency of Catalonia with the abstention of Illa (delegate of Sanchez) is not given which would be the only way for Puigdemont to become president again, the biggest laverage is still on junts side, because now with nothing else to lose, since they lost Catalonia, they could perfectly make the Sanchez government fall and trigger new elections in Spain. What is more, because of the new political configuration of the Catalan Parliament, with no clear majorities, without an unprecedented and extremely unlikely alliance, a government to be formed in Catalonia is now practically imposisble which would trigger new elections. So in any scenario taking the Catalan Parliament configuration as an example of a return to duopolitics in Spain is far from a good reading of the situation. What is more, not only new parties disrupted the independentist scene, one making it into the Parliament (Aliança Catalana), it is worht noting that only 57% of the electorate actually voted in this elections which saving the coincidence side by side with the 43.03 % of participation in the "illegal" independence referendum just shows that most independentists are tired of independentist parties not delivering independence and didn't care to vote in punishment. Of course many also might have switched to the socialist party believing that the more nuanced approach other than beating up people serves their interest, but still, I would not consider the Catalan Parliament as a reflection of Spain in general, in any case.
spain isn't going back to a two party sistem lest of all in catalonia becouse the popular party never held an important number of seats in here, even back when the independentist movement was strongest the main opposition party was another one called ciudadanos
WHERE'S NEWS TWINK???
Doubtful, shit like hope floats.
After reading the title... Don't threaten me with a good time!
This is a major u turn from this channels recent Spanish politics video lol
No, it is not
Catalan independence is not dead, simply that the pro independence part of Catalonia, abstained due to the Pro Independence parties doing absolutely nothing
VOTE FOR PEDRO
Independence Supporting Parties falling off in the decades following failed Independence attempts makes a lot of sense (we'll definitely see a decline in the SNP in the next Westminster and Holyrood elections, for example), but they'd not die out.
Hello. Spaniard here.
1. *Every* Comunidad Autónoma -"devolved assemblies", I think that's easier for the British to understand- has the power to call its own elections. They usually don't because it's quite expensive and it's cheaper to share the cost with local elections for town councils. Examples: we had snap elections in Madrid (region), Castilla y León and Andalusia.
2. Ciudadanos -Citizens- is (at least for a while) an "anti-Catalan nationalist party", not "anti-Catalan". They fly the Catalan flag at their rallies. And they are (still for today) less conservative than the PP.
3. I wonder why you don't say anything at all about the xenophobic Catalan nationalist party, Alliança Catalana (AC), which has just won 2 seats in the parliament. If they are not Spanish nationalists, are they not so bad?
PP and PSOE have not magically been on the rise, they simply have taken the votes from the Ciutadans party, one that started in Catalonia to oppose catalanism and to reduce the Catalan language. During the 10s, the independentists and unionists grouped into bigger parties resulting on Junts x Sí and Ciutadans concentrating the vast majority of voters for either of those two options. Ciutadans was a party that fed in conflict and populism, and since independence, while still being one of the biggest topics of debate, doesn't seem likely to happen since there's no clear route on how to do it, and thanks to inner fighting and controversy, the unionist voters have once again gone back to voting depending on their ideology, the PSC for the left wing, and PP for the right wing.
Don't lie to our European neighbours who probaby don't even know all these parties. PSOE (S&D) won 220,000 votes, PP (EPP) won 233,000 and Vox (ECR) won 30,000. Citizens (RE) lost 136,000. It's simple math. PSOE got most of those from ERC (centre-left, pro-independence), which lost 185,000 and Sumar (new Podemos coalition, it's hard to keep up with their names change lol), which lost 15.000. PP and Vox got some votes from Junts (right-wing, pro-independence), which got 100.000 more from ERC and CUP (left, pro-independence). All of these numbers tell us that many people voting pro-independence parties in the past didn't even want independence and they just voted ERC and Junts because this way they got more money from the central government.
*I thought that Catalonia had already declared independence from 🇪🇸Spain back in 2017?* 🤔
Nope, they lost.
Who cares? It's never going to happen. Sometimes I think it will be nice though, just to stop the misleading shitshow and the coercion and abuse that monopolizes central government budget benefits over the rest of the nation and also condonation and absorption, again by the rest of the nation, of their huge regional debt.
We held a referendum, which was deemed "inconstitutional" since in Spain it is illegal to attempt to break away from it. In addition, the central government send the national police to crack down with violence the peaceful voting, and to shut down the electoral colleges. It was quite brutal, and hundreds of voters were injured, some of them will never recover their sight or won't be able to walk. It's outrageous how international institutions and most states still haven't condemned such horrible happenings. In the end, a dozen of polititians, some public workers and public figures that aided in the organization of the referendum were trialed and jailed, and a few political leaders fled in exile. The central government took temporarily charge of Catalonia closing down our Government. To answer your question, with a 43.03% turnout, in the 1st of October referendum independence won with a 90.18% of votes, that's more than 2 million people that went to vote for Independence even after being warned from Madrid that this referendum was going to be avoided at any cost, and after the King of Spain stated on public television "let's go get them". The president of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont declared independence, and in the same speech interrupted it to start negotiations with the Spanish state. So yeah technically we declared independence, at least for a while
who cares? It's never going to happen. Sometimes I think it will be nice though, just to stop the misleading s**show and the coercion and abuse that monopolizes central government budget benefits and inversions at the expense of the rest of the nation, and also cancellation and absorption by the central goverment of their huge regional debt, again at the expense of the rest of the nation.
PSC is what the pp was twenty years ago. A right wing, centralist party thet works only in favour of capital
😂😂😂😂😂
Yay! Still obviously reading from teleprompter, but at least the host finally has a bit of personality and emotion. Moving toward a pleasant listen...
Just say you don’t like women lol
She's sounded fine since she started...
Pro independence movement is not a byproduct of the economic crisis and has little to do with the bipartisan issue on the Spanish parliament. Mixing apples with oranges and seeing causalities where there are only correlations. Indeed understanding the data is crucial and you quite haven’t this time.
Money was one of the reasons for the pro-independence movement. CiU wasn't secessionist before the 15M. It wasn't until the 15M protests against Mas' cutbacks that CiU started to demand the independence, arguing the way they distributed the money was unfair and the cause of the cutbacks.
Finally the catalan nationalism and fascism is falling apart. Once people got aware of the circus that we have in the catalan parlament, they began to seek other parties
The new presenter is smart, well explained. Bravo!
I hope Catalonia gets its independence. Just like I hope Ireland gets its independence from Briton.
England has exactly 82 % Points, ie. g. 533 of all 650 consticiuencies, of [British] "House of Commons"!
Imagine, that Castille, would have 287 of all 350 seats, of the Spanish House of Representatives!
The State of California, has 53 of all 435 seats, in the United States House of Representatives!
Even Prussian States, have never been reprensentated, at least that much, inside Germany´s parliaments!
I'd guess it's just gonna be like Quebec...
There is another reading after this election. Spain has always tried to reduce the importance of the Catalan language, they have tried to separate and polarise the 3 communities where it is spoken (Valencia, Balearic Islands and Catalonia), they have promoted southern spanish inmigration to this communities and now they are willing to make schools be taught in Spanish instead of Catalan to try and neutralize the percentage of Catalan speakers and make it less useful in everyday’s life for the present and future generations and this has affected the amount of people in this territories that feel a belonging sentiment to being Catalan. This transition is almost completed in Valencia and in some major cities in Catalonia and Balearic Islands…
It would be great to stop this policies before it’s too late and we end up having the same situation of the Irish, Welsh or the national minorities of France, where they have lost 100% of their speakers.
I can’t tell if you’re lying or just talking despite being uninformed, but catalan, just like other languages in spain, is recognized as an official language and no one is trying to get rid of it.
@@juancarlosalonso5664 Well, opinion polls say there are about 600.000 in Catalonia who would want catalan culture and language to disappear, and these are just the ones who openly admit it. Do you believe these people have no party that represents them?
To clarify, the socialist party is not socialist, it is social democrat capitalist. It could be included in a centre-left space, similar to the SPD in Germany or Labour Party in the UK. We do not have economically socialist parties in parliament.
Furthermore, independence is not really dead, it got 43% of the votes and there was a lot of abstentionism, as a criticism of the current pro-independence parties that in so many years have not managed to advance towards independence.
I don't think you can label as a vote for independence to every vote for independentist parties.
I am a Catalan, and still don’t know which Party I should vote, they all disappoint in their own way.
Orriols, sin pensartelo
@@JoseArcadioBuendia43F es la que voté pero no consiguió ningún diputado por Barcelona
@@rovirapoulos Ha conseguido 2 diputados en la Generalitat, y si no te gusta que sea indepe puedes votar al FO
@@JoseArcadioBuendia43F ya pero digo que los diputados que ha conseguido son de Girona y Lleida. Todos los que la hemos votado en Barcelona y Tarragona no han sumado suficientes votos para conseguir otro diputado.
@@rovirapoulos Ya la sacareis
Catalonian separatist politicians were not incarcerated because of their ideas, their parties have been in Catalonian institutions since the start of democracy. It was because they organised an illegal referendum they proclaimed Catalunya as an independent country. The majority of them were judged by the Supreme Court os Spain and the rest ones flee of the country. The "hard liners" have never governed Spain and they are very far of achieving that.
Spanish guy living in Catalonia for 18 years here. There are a lot of reasons but to me the main reason is the impossible alliance between catalan nationalist parties: ERC and Junts. They hate each other to the guts, they rather deal with spanish parties than with each other (in fact in many cities they do). They did a coalition in 2015 (if I remember correctly) but it has been down the rails since then.
WTF?! all people in catalonia are spanish by definition, is one of the regions of Spain.
@@user-bm5zb2zw2f Its pretty obvious what he meant.
None of this is true
I’ve followed Catalan politics for a while and the elephant in the room for separatists is that support for independence has never been more than 40% at its highest, and that support is based primarily in rural areas and smaller towns and there has never been a majority of support for separatists in Barcelona.
When you then ask Catalan separatists (as I have) abut this and point out that surely the will of people of Barcelona must be honoured then they get very upset.
They demand the right to separate from Spain but refuse to accept that parts of Catalonia don’t want to.
@epincion If that's the case why did the Spanish government not allow the independence referendum a few years back?
@@mitchyoung93 Why? Well simply because the Spanish Constitution does not allow for separation. There is no legal way for a referendum to happen.
It requires a constitutional rewrite and in a nation that is highly devolved with many autonomous layers of administration based on city, county, regions that will take a huge collective effort plus clear rules need to be laid out.
Personally I think that Spain should change its constitutional arrangements to allow a referendum but there are strong political forces against this.
During the 2014 Scottish Indy ref Spain said that it would accept a Leave result with Scotland becoming a new state and that Scotland was welcome to apply for EEA or EU membership. This is because the Spanish federal government knows that there is a legal pathway for such under the treaties of Union between Scotland and England which are constitutional documents in the UK which is a union of seven parts each with their own unique constitutional status.
In fact the EU Commission as a whole accepted that Scotland could legitimately leave.
Secondary hit 🎯 it fix itself Dennis Dillon Czech my friend yes Italy Guy Likud party no Thomas.
Red pill Germany a friend Thomas. Did Defend Austria Vienna and Germany politically as Italian citizen yes. Thanks England London Britain.
😮