The 4 Biggest Threats to the West, According to Historian Ferguson | At Barron's
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- čas přidán 15. 05. 2024
- "I don't believe in the 'soft landing' story," said historian and author Niall Ferguson in a conversation on Sept. 12, 2023.
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Escapism in the US has taken on a very dangerous sophistication...people dig their heels in over "flashy" issues, while all avoiding the daunting challenges (educational mediocrity, national debt, family disintegration, deceitful infowarfare, international cybercrime, evaporation of norms, environmental poisoning).
"...evaporation of norms..."
Doesnt sound like much, but I think this is the no1 killer for American society now. The moral decay, and the increase in unethical behavior and crime that comes along with it.
I call the greatest threat is professors indoctrinating their students to mistrust and hate the country. #2 is servicing the debt.
That is one of the best comments I've seen in a long time. Add to that, cable news, who gets paid by keeping their people, their side, their team inflamed and angry, and now with new technology to do it... we are headed into stormy, uncharted, realms.
is that your take off of the world and this video? everything you mentioned could have been mentioned every year for the last fifty years with the exception of cybercrime because it did not exist then.
@@martinvanburen4578 "is that your take off of the world and this video?"
I'm not sure why you seem to be mocking his comment.
We see the "escapism" he refers to in some survey results. The latest one I spotted today is from Pew Research: 36% Dem or Dem Leaning people surveyed this year agreed that "other countries are better than the US".
Thats detached from reality. The correct answer, and there is only one, is: "US is one of the greatest countries, along with others".
One can only scratch their head in wonder at how people seem to get lost so easily.
Although I would suggest that perhaps you imply that this is an eternal issue for human beings when you say that the most of the issues the OP "...could have been mentioned every year for the last fifty years..."; maybe we could just keep adding zeroes and it would still be broadly accurate.
The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?
We underestimate the fact that banks are corporate entities also governed by greed. Since 2020, the banks have been over-leveraging their assets, which was one of the reasons for SVB's implosion. I have never been okay with keeping much money in the bank. I simply invest through my financial advisor, collect my profits, which I then spend.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Wait for the crash, then most stocks will be half price - if your cash isn't frozen, like in the Great Depression or worse still your capital is replaced with bank stock as described in the bail-in legislation.
Made in China via Mexico.... Mexican manufacturing is basically assembly of Chinese-made parts and components into the final product...thus Mexico is just an extension of China's manufacturing supply chain.
Let's not forget the modern day Opium War via China/Mexico.
totally agree when people claim that apple is moving away from china in the end is actually not moving that much, india and vietnam are only less than 20% of assembling i phones.
the manufacturing and bulk majority off the production of apple products are in china.
why are you just hoping for the worst for others (Russia, China) to get away with your own issue? This is a very horrible and dangerous mindset. In order to make yourself better, try to focus on your own issue and grow a long-term vision.
Keep the rich families out of the governments
Losers for the win
How about the productive class for the win? i.e. people who actually work for a living whatever form that work is. Inheriting money and leisure should not be rewarded with political power. America and the west would be in a hell of a lot better shape if that were the case.@@loudawg25
John Kerry is full of it.
Sometimes money makes bribery more difficult.
Murica Gubbermint system more corrupt than North Korea.
Niall Ferguson sounds less like an "intellectual" or "Historian" but more as a propagandists.
"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented."
-Sir Josiah Stamp, former Bank president
How about some AI to sort it out? I heard that AI is smarter than humans 😂
If everyone goes digital, we could have a random generator distributing funds to people…
Your budget is what the machine puts into your account!
No need to borrow ie no debt!
I mean we have most of it in place already…
Crypto currency 😂😂😂
Just add the random generator for funding 😂😂😂
Another thing, if Elon Musk is right about AI, that it will make less people needed to do work.
Let’s extrapolate that scenario a tad. The 5% richest people in the world owns all companies, real estate , factories etc
95% are not needed and are unemployable…!
Who is the customer?
Another bot or robot?
Absolutely correct statement he made during his presidentship of Bank of England. But officially, he never said this as corporate media says
You know how they could lower the burden for citizens? Tax the money the moment it is put into circulation instead of taxing the people!
Does that mean money created from nothing mean 34.5 trillion debt fades to nothing?
Banking definitely is magic. How else could you throw money away and get the general population to support you?
Nial proves historians are as bad as economists at prediction - but at least he doesn't use numbers to pretend he's a hard science. If only we could all have jobs where you read old info, make bets that favour those with capital, and don't have to worry about your next paycheck when you continually fail.
The ‘hard sciences’ also suffer from a fault in the system. The peer review process is usually the pal review process. Also there are no brownie points for negative results which contradict the theory so these tend to be suppressed.
Wall street analyst. Now there's a crystal ball job if ever there was one.
His predictive modelling has been proved flawed and biased
Such a talent to speak for 20 minutes and say nothing more than trivialities
Nial is a historian and should stay a historian.
he is a Narcissist Greeding for hyper attention
Very true. It reminds me of Noam Chomsky whose only qualification is as a linguist but who appointed himself an expert on world affairs.
I hope he is able to face the reality. Sudden total failure of Russian military - seriously? And economic and political collapses of China - AGAIN?? Those scenarios are equal to if not less probable than a civil war of massive social unrest in the US.
Which of his arguments do you disagree with?
@@73BigMC None
he is always right
by pro Fession and career
Publicly backed the government in Kiev? Hell, we installed the government in Kiev.
And like all Murican coups and regime changes, it falls apart.
@@AnthonyTolhurst-dw1nc ... the entire world has fallen apart, with or without USA or UK influence. Everything in life is transient, and everything rises and declines with time.
History is not only 300 years old, or since the rise of the USA as a major superpower.
Like all nations have done, the USA also rose, and is now also in decline. A natural course of events.
The Ottoman empire. The Persian Empire. The Roman empire. The British Empire. The Mayans. The Chinese. The Japanese.
No, you didn't. Ukraine's elections are free and largely unpredictable.
He was elected in 2019. Did Trump install him.
Pompous Toff
My sense of disappointment in discovering that Niall Ferguson has become a stereotypical neocon thinker that would have been perfectly at home in the elder Bush's administration is acute.
I have come to completely agree with your assessment.
Agreed!
I think that the world might go into a debt depression and another financial melt down as no government has got the balance right with money in, money out and prioritized spending.
100%, the middle class will never get out of debt
Agree, but before then, we are likely to see many Government's implementing fiscal repression (requiring funds to but their debt in one way or another).
What about our energy sector? If we drill and frack like mad, the economy will recover and the transition will be a little delayed but not stopped. Hence no rescission.
Frightful ignorance.., think of the planet's future.
He would suggest rescinding tax cuts for the 1% and corporations as soon as sprouting wings and turning into a fairy.
I remene reading. Nialls. Book empire. Years ago very comprehensive and understanding of all parits involved throughouts its history and ive seen recently he has started up a university in america and is apart of alot of geopolitcal discussions i woild say this is a good thing as a man who studied empire and all histroy will have a good example of both the economic and politcal view of what is happenkng and is going to happen.
I think he is correct in pointing out that the deficits and the huge debt represent a very long term structural economic problem for the USA. The rivalry between the USA and PRC, the problem of being over-dependent on PRC supply chains, and the brushfire wars that are adding to the pressure on the 'productive class' in the USA (that is the people who work and pay taxes).
It is also astonishing that the estimates of working age men that are out of the workforce is so high. At times of high inflation and a red hot economy, there shouldnt be 2.7 million working age men not participating, and no doubt sucking on the public teat in various ways: disability payments, medicaid, bank of mom and dad, etc.
Amazing to me that I'm the 1st thumbs up your dead on comment got. You point out the key problem. Don't give up.
Look up to who we owe our “debt” and who owns the Fed reserve, and you’ll never look at the world in the same way.
Is it really a problem? The debt I mean. Or just people not understanding money? I wonder how to explain Japan's 226% of GDP debt today or similar levels in the early 19th century for Britain. The Federal Reserve can increase the monetary base by a trillion with a keystroke--no printing necessary.
I was very concerned about the debt in the 80s but I'm not sure I should worry about. The boy maybe has cried wolf too many times.
@@kurtgroat4927 It is not a problem for you, or the muppets in the political bubbles. It is a long term structural problem though.
Where there is debt, there is always interest for example. The federal reserve cant just invent money for the federal government to spend, the federal government borrows on the global bond market.
What does it all mean?
It means that the US is a net receiver of investment, not a net investor. It means the US is at greater risk of future instability if it starts to lose control of the balance of productivity vs interest payments and currency valuation.
High debt countries that are very productive and wealthy can get away with this for a long, long time. Your example of Japan is a good one, the US is another good example. It all depends on the people in charge being able to stay in control.
The trajectory the US is on is discussed in various articles, they talk about the US moving towards 200% of GDP by the 2040s.
Its easy to see that if the world stays largely the same that the US could fluctuate its debt and it could be sustainable.
However, if it just keeps creeping towards 300% is that really good for US society and political economy? I think its undesirable and unnecessary personally.
@@johnalden948I wonder how many thumbs down there were?
He is another out of touch establishment stuffed shirt.
The thing that Europeans are most afraid of is the ZioCon Americans dragging Europe into a war the common man DO NOT WANT.
You can now add North Korea to those aiding Russia in the war
It’s comical . The interviewer is throwing questions at him and Neil is saying things without any data or proof Quack interview LOL
Dear Professor Ferguson, a brilliant presentation about a real situation the it happening in our universities in CHILE, as you described. We need your visit, Regard. Manuel Carreno.
If one wanted to move to a country of Africa 🌍, Which would be some of the best ?
Why and.. or why not ?
I'd pick the Sinai Peninsula between 1967 and 1983.
Botswana & Namibia.
The other major risk is less democracies is what China & Russia are aiming for
I think China is provoking an arms race in the us to increase national debt and then dump all us treasuries, the end game to the dollar, they're already dumping since 2019 when they were the top us treasury holder.
And Iran. The evil triumvirate.
A lot of populists on the left and the right are okay with them. They believe that the West is evil and that communists and fascists have it figured out.
The major risk with this is actually incompetence in governments that is what we are seeing in the west. And tried to cover up that incompetency by spending big and bigger on defense when the main problem get overlooked.
China and Russia can decide their own political system
This is a great interview, it got you my sub and a few views. Thank you Barron and Andy.
There’s your longterm optimism: liberty and justice prevailing together with creative innovation through technology.
Very good analysis except on the Russo-Ukrainian war.
I'm a big fan of Niall Ferguson, a very impressive mind with a deep love for the West and he's not afraid to show it
Well said
Yes, agreed. His wife, Aayaan Hirsi Ali also has a deep love for Western values. Love them both
😂he's a puppet of USA regime. You believe anyone with a brit accent.
Fergie is just repeating the USA regime propoganda line. China Russia sitting back amazed at how UK eu Japan let the USA regime destroy its economy and still follow like zombies. Like whores following their pimps!
Absolutely. Nobody else is writing books like his "Empire" or "Civilisation".
On the geopolitical question the threat from Islamists in Europe and the UK has become much more of a threat since the Hama's raid into Israel and the threat to jews living in London
Yea, London sux right now. English is a second language.
@btpennycook I see that you have picked up on the Mosad propaganda.
Truth!
Foolish lie 😂you are mad toilet
Foolish lie 😂you are mad toilet
If you keep your foot on the gas, while holding the break pedal down, your going to break something, and it will be an expensive repair.
Your brakes will overhear and warp your rotors. It's not terribly expensive, but probably 4x the cost swapping pads. I recommend not to do this. I'm a professional.
There is the scientific method and then there is Niall Ferguson
Very shallow and disappointing. Changed my mind on Ferguson. Sounds like polished High School talk to me.
@7:50 it is quantitative tightening (QT) not quantitative easing (QE)! Correct me!
They were easing until NOV 21 and started tightening in MAR 22
OK thank you!@@loudawg25
Nialle, London has been ruined by it's open boarder. Do you want the same for America.
So nice to learn that "The West" means the United States. Was never sure about that. It's also revealing that, brilliant as this guy supposedly is, this interview became hopelessly outdated within a few days.
He has never been brilliant. He is a regionalist mediocre who, as he demonstrates in this video, does not understand how finance works or what money actually is.
4 things. WEF, swamp people. Billionaires. Trillionaires.
There are no trillionaires. Not yet at least. There are a couple of quarter-trillionaires.
Really enjoy Ferguson as always. Interestingly, the problem of bringing certain advanced industries like chip production home to me is only concerning if the PR ignites a hot war. Taiwan has already begun deleveraging the risk to their chip production by beginning standing up a $5Bn first stage investment in the US. Expect more of that and quicker in the months ahead!
Ah, but you've forgotten Maurice Chang lament that TSMC was penetrated posteriorly!
Bring jobs back to America.
@@oldsalt8011 US is a plutocracy where the wealthy and military industrial complex bought and own the corrupt US government. Until this corrupt government is replaced, the oligarchs will make where it is the cheapest and sells where they can make the most profit. The political class and the oligarchs don't care about the everyday working Joes and Janes, just the profits they are making.
@@oldsalt8011 czcams.com/video/kBKvg-wOGk8/video.html
He is a liar.
"What could go right (for US)?" ... "well Russia's military could fail?" ... "well China's economic problems could turn into a political collapse?". That's all you need to know about Niall's prognostication (it's sounds like Biden policy, i.e. wishful thinking). If this is the best we can hope for in the West, then you can draw your own conclusions about the outcome (i.e. it's not gonna go well).
Niall's analysis is 100% wishful thinking as are many policies in the West nowadays.
No one is even willing to acknowledge let alone willing to tackle the herd of elephant sized problems in the room.
Social problems "out of sight, out of mind"? That sounds like the aristocrats in the court of Louis the 16th.
More like the drag clubs of the Weimar.
I see the prolonged conflict in Ukraine as serving the interests of the USA because this country has the largest stockpile of weapons.
So, maybe this time the Swamp might actually get drained… good!
The US national debt is more than $33 trillion, with 38% of it held by foreign entities. The US also has $38 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities and $17 trillion in unfunded Social Security liabilities.
The US dollar is the dominant reserve currency, backed by its perceived strength, allowing the US to print unlimited dollars as long as the world maintains trust in it. The US dollar is the backbone of US power, and any actions that undermine confidence in the currency threaten to destabilize its position of dominance. Each unilateral sanction imposed by the US risks damaging the stability and credibility of the US dollar, leading to dire consequences for the nation's power and influence. The US is the only country actively undermining the strength of the US dollar. The freezing of Russia's $300 billion currency reserve by Western governments may lead countries to reconsider investing their funds in US Treasury bonds and finding ways to reduce their use of the US dollar.
A significant portion of US dollars is held outside the US, estimated at 60-70% of all US dollars in circulation, due to its status as the dominant reserve currency and wide use in international trade and finance. The one trillion dollar trade deficit of the US is a consequence of being the reserve currency, as a strong dollar makes it difficult for US businesses to export goods and services while simultaneously making it easier for other countries to sell to the US. Countries are expending resources and labor making goods and shipping them to the US in exchange for green pieces of paper. The US is sending back mostly empty containers.
The US budget deficit is $1.38 trillion in 2022 which must be paid for by selling more Treasury bonds. The interest on this debt is greater than the military budget. To pay the interest on its debt, the government sells more Treasury bonds, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. The US printing of dollars has been exporting inflation in other countries for decades, but will eventually increase US inflation. Raising interest rates to fight inflation decreases consumer and business spending, increases the trade deficit, and higher interest payments on government debt. Other countries will respond to the US raising of interest rate by raising their interest rate, risking global recession. The Plaza Accord addressed this issue in the past, but it will be challenging to implement such measures now.
A well-run country collects taxes to fund essential services and infrastructure. In the US political system, wealthy corporations and individuals can lobby for tax breaks. The shortfall in funding for the US government has reached $33 trillion. Instead of collecting taxes from wealthy corporations and individuals, the government pays interest to them.
Banks hold Treasury bonds for their safety, liquidity, regulatory compliance, and potential profitability. When interest rates on Treasury bonds rise sharply, the decrease in bond values reduces liquidity and makes it harder for banks to raise cash quickly. This causes depositors to lose confidence, triggering a bank run. In response to the current bank run, the government is issuing Treasury bonds to raise funds to compensate depositors for any lost funds. There are $19 trillion in deposits in US banks. The estimated unrealized loss on US banks' financial assets is $1.94 trillion, while the total size of their equity is $2.1 trillion. SVB had taken a $15 billion loss, while their capital is $16 billion. Around 2,315 of the 4,800 banks are currently sitting on assets worth less than their liabilities. It's a systemic issue.
A similar issue is being played out with risker Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) valued at $12 trillion.
The new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) helps prevent discounted bondholders from taking losses when they have to sell them urgently. The BTFP accepts discounted bonds at face value to be used as pledges for loans to inject more money into the economy. Risking more inflation.
It's a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi scheme cannot taper. We reached the can and there is no more road.
The US also needs to develop policies to deal with these chronic issues of living in a “democracy”. Economic inequality, inflation, stagnant real wages for the last forty years, costly healthcare, expensive education system, student loan debt totaling $1.7 trillion with an average balance of $38,000, racial inequality, mass incarceration, the militarization of police, deteriorating infrastructure, housing affordability, homelessness, the opioid epidemic, and gun violence.
Bitcoin fixes all of that
Yeah right! How do they value the price of bitcoin again?????@@BertramGroverWeeks
And now with the open boarder there will be an increase in welfare programs.
@@BertramGroverWeeksuntil someone hacks your Digital account.
@oldsalt8011 And what digital account would that be? My "Bitcoin digital account"? No such thing. The Bitcoin network is nothing but an immutable ledger, a history of transactions which cannot be altered, changed, erased, or faked. It is the invention of Triple Entry Ledger accounting and it represents the greatest hope for the future of humanity despite the bleak outlook of the current Keynesian cantillon hamster wheel.
On 😇 angels , slaves to Love, and Mercy on the poor !!
While staying happily rested, the Tao ☯️ of St Paul, and letting tomorrow worry about tomorrow !!
By their fruits you shall know them..
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Many feel China's demographics will be a real problem for them, too many old folks!
He’s hardly anywhere near the real issues and how we are stumbling towards some terrible decision making ….he’s looking in different directions than most of us. His grasp of geo-politics is very relaxed and unfocused…..
So help him out. What’s your advice?
I agree that 🐍 are the greatest threat to the liberal world order.
A lot of proper conventional platitudes ,
@@einstu With all the money spent on educating Niall, as evidenced by his pretentiousness and his posh accent, that all he can provide is vacuous banalities, suggests that he is beyond help.
Tell us your thoughts.
If the Government can inflate the debt away by having the Federal Reserve Bank buy that debt..the phrase being debt monetisation..when the Fed. Buys anything it introduces new currency into the economy and therefore reduces the buying power of all existing currency...
Hello Argentina! We see how that turned out.
Niall is an amazingly clear communicator.
as well as Victor Davis Hanson.
...like an advertisng bullshitting lying smiler...
"An economy with full employment". What? What about all the people living in tents in cities and hooked on oxys in the rust belt where all the jobs got sent overseas? Economists must have some weird bespoke definition of "full employment"
Quite comfy looking chairs they are sitting on
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson said nothing of the kind.😂
The very modernity of the language shows Jefferson could not have said this, JESUS, people!!
Stop falling for fake quotes from famous historical figures!
Yeah,...Jefferson said a lot of things but this one obviously isn't true.....YET!
@@marcob.7801 It's getting there, go look at the streets of California. Look at the process of homes I've over doubled in the last few years
Auch Regierungen gelingt es, die Währung zu zerstören.
Why does this conversation feel somewhat awkward.... fotoshoppish.... overstaged...?
When the deficit is greater than the rate of growth of the economy you will eventually be overwhelmed. An 8% deficit compared to a 1.5% average growth rate over the last decade, and the likely average rate going forward, will double your debt to GDP ratio in about 12-13 years. That means that by 2035 or so we will be at 200% debt to GDP ratio. That might create a lot of inflation or perhaps an economic crisis of some sort
Is Communism ..not enough freedom and capitalism .. not enough control ?
What is the state of the people.. and to whom should they be given ?
When we have freedom and control just right
. ..On a per unit of time basis ...
... Everybody wins 🏆 !!
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
They don't appear to have heard of Dr Jan Harper-Hayes :)
Few people pay attention to the fact that the deficit is strongly affected by the ability of the Federal government to tax, and the US Constitution (as amended) limits the government's taxing power, essentially, to the income tax and import-export duties. States are not so limited, which is why property taxes are imposed by US states but not by the Federal government. There is no billionaires' tax, because that would be a tax on assets rather than an income tax or an import-export duty. This is relevant to the Federal budget deficit, because too much income taxation will eventually constrain economic growth. Absent the unlikely event of a Constitutional amendment to expand the Federal government's taxing power, the Federal government must either reduce non-defense spending or find a way to offload non-defense spending to the states (without a differential in per capita state spending causing noticeable population movements to obtain more generous benefits).
brilliant interview. Both evolved and highly professional.
Good analysis.
I don't agree with his list. In fact, Global Warming wasn't the top priority.
What kind of list is that?
Inflation is a tactical threat, not a strategic threat.
Such a brilliant conversation! Thankyou for sharing it with us!
Islam? Mass migration? Woke Ideology? WEF/WHO/UN?
When asked about Globalism, Ferguson's answer was about Globalisation. Are these two different things or are they interchangeable?
Yes, at some point the debt tsunami crests and hits shore. No politicians or governments are prepared to manage this or control it. Some will make it worse. The world will have to manage a debt-leveraged asset price reset. Good luck to us.
The fact is that WEST is in same situation as was Roman Empire. It is on its last leg!
The eastern Roman Empire existed for 1000 years after the collapse of the western roman empire
The open boarder and the Opium War is sinking American fast.
12:06 so who are the debtors
Given Trumps alleged conduct. How about Bidens alleged conduct ?
Fill me in. How does Biden's conduct compare to Trumps? No one at that level is entirely clean, but Biden is a lot cleaner than Trump. Who is nothing short of filthy in any way you want to describe. Morally, physically, mentally, spiritually. Nothing good about Trump.
I didn't get it when he said "This hot economy ..."
The USA/collective West is its own worst enemy. It always has been.
European citizens today are still suffering from the hegemonial ambitions of some of their leaders, teaming up with Washington DC/the Pentagon. These citizens, usually around 50% of entire populations, suffer directly ("heating or eating"), or indirectly (soaring inflation), these are all "effects," not to be confused with "causes" (see concept of _retrocausality,_ one of the most easilily misused ways to skew a timeline of events).
Read Washington chief strategist Brzinzki's "grand plan", or Mackinder before that (1904). The aim was always to drive a rift between Europeans, to avoid greater Eurasian (geographically incl. the ME) co-operation and trade.
Today, the people of the Levant (most of whom are Semites, and the followers of Abrahamic religions) have been *"divided and ruled"* over *by outsiders* for centuries.
Because it is easier to divide people based on personal differences, than it is to unite them, based on what they have in common.
Strategically ambiguous rulers make use of this, for own advantages.
In the era of empires, first Rome/Constantinople, then during WW1 the seat of POWER playing these games changed to London/Paris, then after the 1950's as European colonialism's power decreased, the role of "divider" was simply taken over by Washington DC (the entire ME was the "playground" during the Cold War).
*Now the intention is simply to avoid unity in the ME, in order to "rule" over the dissent which is classical "divide and rule".*
Today, they are ALL tools.
Endless wars, constant dissent.
Insert "levers" of lies, mistrust...
Create favorites: favoratism...
Divide and Rule.
Oldest trick in the book...
*Who wields the POWER?*
Who has had (in all historical cases) the GEOGRAPHICAL ADVANTAGE of being able to "reach" all the other little "buck catchers" (tools, and other Roman-era instruments of POWER), but cannot be "reached" itself, because of a geographical-, technological-, organisational-, military-, strategic-, political advantage at any given point of a historical timeline?
And likely CIA/MI-6 agents posing as well known historians.
first is fascism. second is feeling guilt and not criticizing a former victim now oppressor. third is being pessimistic. four is listening to fake experts like Denial
He never mentioned the obesity epidemic. America is getting sicker and sicker....think about it people.
This was taped last September. and the economy does not seem likely to be in "recession" this year 2024 even though the Fed. intended to have a mild recession.
You don't have a guest that is not this BIAS?
Thanks Andy & Nial for a great overview of where the US is and where it (and the world) might be heading. The rise of political extremism in the US and the further eroding of freedom and human rights in China, Russia and elsewhere is truely troubling.
“The further eroding of freedom and human rights in China, Russia“
What eroding? Can you give any examples
@@richardgrant418
Exactly 👍
It simply never existed in Russia as in China.
You don't actually improve human right or freedom by pumping out fake news on human right and freedom in those countries.
What is he saying about the Chinese real estate sector. It has two homes per person. Is he suggesting it needs to keep on ripping?
Who's trying to give the United States 🇺🇸 recessions or depressions ? Are they enemies ?
No one is "trying" to do that. The Fed is trying to NOT do that.
What a wonderful interview!
As we get closer to November 2024, Potato Head will be in a nursing home, after breaking both hips in a fall up the stairs. Already a million billion trillion times!
But what he does NOT say is that the Fed is the source of debt. And that debt finance creates slaves, false booms, and real slumps. Slaves, of course, having no rights.
Disclosure needed here. Pro-west commentator
Mr Ferguson is always interesting and informative.
Re 2024: To not mention “fortification” is either very naive or dishonest. Take your pick.
The problem is not interest rates. Even with low interest rates government was accelerating the debt. They need to be disincentivized from spending like drunken soldiers, not bring out more champagne at 3 am.
Too much time at the arts end of the campus Niall. The U.K. has the 3rd largest AI research investment after US and China.
Is he pronouncing Nial's name right??
Better that you look out the window!
Greetings from Quincy, Massachusetts! It’s hard to know what to say about Niall’s world view.
His belief in the Trumps indictments reminds me that intellectuals are still naive.
"Is globalism and liberal democracy in permanent decline?" Linking these together in symbiosis tells you all you need to know about the worldview of the barons of Barrons. Not to mention the complete absence of the illegal migrant crisis in this discussion, as one of the great migrations of human history continues unabated, and the cost to federal and state treasuries (north of $500B/y) for transportation, feeding, clothing, housing, and medical care of an additional 20-30 million U.S. residents.
There were one million asylum cases in 2023. Your claim of $500B/y cost is off by a mile. You're assuming that 20 or 30 years worth of these people are going to go on welfare and stay there. Those migrants are hard working people; they are going to work. That said, there's too many of them, and we should get the situation under control, but let's be accurate about the problem.
Niall Ferguson is one of the few best geopolitical and political brains today. I am glad I can read him often in Bloomberg News. This show is a gift for showing live.
He is an historian. His recent predictions do not have a very good track record.
Someone truthful, accurate, modest, reliable, is preferred...
Starting with a lie about Trump> lame
It's real
Freedom, rights, and responsibilities for all on AI and the New World Order 🌎 !!
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Any serious analyst would not gloss over the risk associated with the increasing levels of environmental damage unless there is a political reason not to discuss it
Such as?
In all honesty the title to this should be 'The 4 Biggest Threats to the West's colonnial hegemony'
Thats what the doublespeak "globalism" and "liberal democracy" mean.
Why don’t he mention the possibility of the election of Robert Kennedy Jr as a positive alternative ?
Is God bigger than man's monetary and fiscal policy devices many many times over ? Do the peoples have faith ? Do they pray ?.
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
“… highly efficacious vaccines…”
Haha! Right! Duh!
More of the same old same old. Totally focused on maintaining US hegemony and the growth economy. Not a bit on how to manage either collapse or economic contraction. Disappointing.
The UK had AI deep mind and they let Google buy it.... Smart move
The UK is poor. 😂
They had no choice. When the master demands the servant must comply.
EXCELLENT
He should stay a historian. His economic analysis is whack.
Calvin Coolidge was Cool as heck.
Well stated !
He slept most of the day...
@@albertgrant1017