Kentucky Derby 2024 Top Longshots
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 17. 05. 2024
- #kentuckyderby2024
Kentucky Derby 2024 Top Longshots with a chance to finish in the money and make for large payouts.
00:00 Introduction
00:51 2024 Kentucky Derby Longshots
02:37 Kentucky Derby Longshot History
04:10 Domestic Product Longshot Contender
05:23 Stronghold Longshot Contender
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I crushed the Derby in 21 for over $23k đŹđđđđđ
I heard about that!
@@question_it_701 win, ex Tri and super đŹ missed the high 5 by one place đ
Who do you like Bandit?
Fantastic insight Derbyologist. Thanks for the education.
My! You are up early. Thank you to our host for these presentations
So I just made a number of parlays with the Denver Nuggets winning the championship and either the Miami Heat or Philadelphia 76ers winning the East. If the Boston Celtics gets upset, itâs going to pay big.
Heat are currently 55-1 to win the East while the Sixers are 12-1. The parlays includes my Derby longshots and the payouts are anywhere from $1000-$4000 from $1 bets. I covered like 10 horses + a repeat of last yearâs NBA Finals with Nuggets the champions and Heat winning the East.
My longshots -
Honor Marie +1600
Resilience +2000
Stronghold +2500
My top 10 + Denver/Miami
1. Sierra Leone pays $1K
2. Stronghold pays $4.6K
3. Honor Marie pays $3.7K
4. Resilience pays $3K
5. Fierceness pays $1K
6. Catching Freedom pays $1.8K
7. Just Steel pays $4.6K
8. Forever Young pays $1.6K
9. Dornoch pays $2.3K
10. Just A Touch pays $3K
Endlessly and Encino are ones I decided not to wager on. Iâm hoping the Derby winner is within that 10 horses I listed, but knowing my bad luck, watch it wonât be.
There are some other bets involving Stronghold + which NBA team wins next out for their Game 3 or which teams wins their First Round matchup. Minimum payout is $1000.
The last bet, I decided to NOT include Sierra Leone. Heâs my pick but I have a feeling he comes in 3rd. Itâs that Zandon/Angel of Empire feeling Iâm getting from him. So on Derby Day, Iâm going to put a $60 show on him. That should pay $150 if itâs $5x30. Sierra Leone is my instant cash.
I really donât understand why thereâs no hype with Stronghold? Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie are coming from way out of it. Stronghold will be well placed. And did you see Honor Marieâs bullet workout? Heâs looking ready to go!
While Sierra Leone is my Derby horse, most of my parlays does NOT involve him because I canât take +300 on a horse Iâm not sure he gets there on time. And the pace may NOT be brutal compared to the last two. Most of my parlays are centered around Stronghold at 25-1 and Honor Marie at 16-1. Then Resilience at 20-1.
Stronghold is looking like the most slept on Santa Anita Derby winner of recent times thanks to that 89 Beyer. Iâve only spent $37. Iâll spend another $60 cash on Derby Day with Sierra Leone to show. I feel cursed since Maximum Security was disqualified in 2019.
I watch different âcappers on CZcams picking win candidates. Thereâs like a few of them while horses like Stronghold should be used for the bottom. F that! Itâs anybodyâs race since Rich Strike won it. And Mage wasnât exactly on a lot of peopleâs top 5 last year with his 94 BSF and 3 starts (0 as a 2YO). Hindsight is always 20/20. Hence, why Mage was 15-1 and not among the top 5 betting choices and this was after Forte was scratched.
Iâve seen and gambled on nearly 30 Derbies and itâs never that simple. People can look like a smartass at this moment but wait when next Saturdayâs race is over. Lots of torn tickets and kicking themselves for not picking or including that one particular horse. So many different ways losing this race but thereâs only one way to win and thatâs finishing 1st.
Honor Marie is looking live, folks. Has one of the best pedigrees to win it and already owns a win at Churchill. Actually, two wins. He broke his maiden there and won a graded stakes race. Both he and Stronghold have wins at CD. Thatâs always a plus in a race like this.
I like the nba bets with those horses - nuggets look tough
Great Stuff!! I like the way you think! Appreciate you
alright another great update appreciate you
I hear you on Just Steel but he ran a close second to Muth with a high speed rating while 4w in the turns in Arkansas Derby.
I don't usually do Trifectas but I might do one & put Stronghold & Resilience in there !
Thank you.Again
Great videos , always â€
Thank you Craig looking forward to the week philly race whos got alot of seconds xox
đ§đ§đLove the Patton quote đ
yea i think a little different in that i will try to get a horse peaking for this race & who likes c.d. track. but the post will be my final judge along with the last work so far honor marie fits my thinking as a good tri pick.
1. West Saratoga
2. Encino
3. Society Man
4. Just Steel........( Maybe Won)
Saludos
WEST SARATOGA & **Sierra LEONE~! Ha~! Can do.!
Thank you.
Love it you just named all my horses I'm going for the money
Go for the đ°
Good morning from NYC, excellent video and great analysis. Iâve been following your videos for many years. Thank you.
Much appreciated!
đ§đ§For my few cents' worth- your longshots respected, why is Catalytic ignored?
Of course I wish the best for Saffie and his connectionsđ€đœ
Your suggestions on how punters pick bets are solid but here are mine-
Draw in the gates: may be +ve or -ve for a horse according to its running style as you pointed out.
Trainers and Jockeys have also been covered in your suggestionsđđŒ
Track conditions: will the track be normal or slop?
They like different goingsđ
The most enjoyable and difficult to measure is the quasi "rags to riches"/sentimental angle.
Last year Saffie Joseph Jr was barred and a question mark hung over his head like the sword of Damacleseđą
Catalytic may well fly under the radar and spring an upset- unheralded horses have defied the odds and brought immeasurable joy to the overlooked connections...
My other Barbadian link is Sierra Leone as the owners are associated with Sandy Lane hotelđ€(and Coolmore)
But hey- what do I know (or any of us for that matter)...
Will check the updates after the post position draw has taken place-
P.S. you are still invited to make it here for the first Saturday in March for the Barbados Gold Cup.
Jerry The Nipper was beaten by Portfolio Company đđ
Not as dramatic as Bribon by Sterwins...
Catalytic I think his odds will be in the mix of 10th or 11th highest and he may outrun those odds. Horses do surprise in many races. So the price will be right on catalytic. I wish he had 1 more race. But I think that about just a touch as well and maybe about 2 less for just steel. The Barbados Derby is on my radar for next year. Tentatively planning on it.
@@derbyologist :: Julian Leparoux.?? (*Catalytic.,?*) (??) JOSE ORTIZ~! ''He'' .,. steals out big on a whole bunch of races! No? *(Big up setter!)*
I agree good video but now the odds will be low on these
Aw, good Gawd, I am still chewing railroad ties over Mandaloun being cheated out of his Derby win ("payoff!") on the 2021 race day. (Due to Baffert's juiced up horse - and I do not fault the beautiful "Medina Spirit"). It cost me about 17,000 - I still have my tickets to prove it. Well, what can you do? Onward!
Honor Marie is my go to winner
Drew Post Position #7 and gets Ben Curtis
John I Agree Honor Marie might Win
Put superfecta box n key Sierra Leone on top high 5
and then what? What does that do for me?
I know this much. Fierceness is NOT getting the gravy trip he got in the BC or the Fla derby. No way not in a 20 horse field having to chase track phantom with blinkers on
You got all the bases covered except the pattern of derby points and winning the Kentucky Derby. The points leader has never won in recent years. It's come from points leaders 8-10. So I'm picking dornoc and track phantom. Saez, Rosario, Asmussen, good magic, into mischief.
Dornach!!!!
50/50,Long Layoff,Domestic Product,IRAD should ask Chad Brown,a Switch to Tyler Gaffalione..(Sierra Leone)
I think the two most live long shots are stronghold and honor Marie
They look good. I like stronghold.
I Agree Honor Marie Stronghold
Am I changing ur mind on Domestic Product?? đđ
In Irad you Trust đ
@@derbyologist in Brown lol
You tell em
..no way Just Steel is improving...wait, what ? He was running just as fast as Muth at the end of the Arkansas Derby ? No Muth in the Kentucky derby
Just steel might win. But is he really improving after 11 races?
Is it really so hard to believe that DWayne has pointed his horse for THE derby ? And if he moves forward off that last race against Muth...