Could Ukraine Retake Crimea? A Warographics Analysis
Vložit
- čas přidán 2. 12. 2022
- Annexed by Putin back in 2014, Crimea is a vastly different place to Kherson. A defensible peninsula where Moscow’s rule has become deeply entrenched.
But does that mean its liberation is impossible? Or might Ukraine really be capable of reclaiming it? In today’s episode, we’re examining Kyiv’s stated goal of retaking Crimea… and analyzing whether Ukraine could really pull off its greatest victory yet.
→ Subscribe for new videos at least twice a week!
czcams.com/users/biographics...
Love content? Check out Simon's other CZcams Channels:
Biographics: / @biographics
Geographics: / @geographicstravel
MegaProjects: / @megaprojects9649
SideProjects: / @sideprojects
Casual Criminalist: / @thecasualcriminalist
TopTenz: / toptenznet
Today I Found Out: / todayifoundout
Highlight History: / @highlighthistory
XPLRD: / @xplrd
Business Blaze: / @brainblaze6526
Simon's Social Media:
Twitter: / simonwhistler
Instagram: / simonwhistler
I agree with the sentiment the Ukraininan government shares. Letting Putin stay in power is one thing, letting him stay in power with Crimea is just delaying the inevitable second attempt. Russia has made this an impossible compromise by being untrustworthy for years you simply cannot give them the benefit of the doubt
But as much as i want it, i really dont think it is realistic to do it
They really done have a choice now do they.
There is NO Doubt! P.S. The 'west' sold Ukraine down the river, compelled, bribed them to give up NUKES. Does anyone think for a moment Russia would attack a Nuke power!!!! LOL
Crimea IS Ukraine. I have no doubt Russia will lose, it's just a matter of time or waiting for Putin to pass away. Allowing Russia to stay there poses a danger to Ukraine. There's no way forward but for Ukraine to take back their beloved city.
Exactly. Integrity matters. Lack of, moreso. Putin may pay for his lack thereof.
When I watched that press conference with Mark Milley "soon" was defined as within the "next couple of weeks". I really wish people would stop taking it out of context so badly.
EXACTLY he was talking by end of 2022. Not EVER
Yes he clearly was not talking about in the next month or two. However if the landbridge to crimea is cut in the next months, Crimea is on the table.
"Opposition is code for about to fall out of a really high window" is such a perfect line. Such is life in Russia.
Before the liberation of kherson, many thought that ukraine would lose a boatload of people trying to do urban combat. While they did lose many in ther kherson offensive, it was not even close to what was predicted to be a bloody prolonged urban combat. They were able to use the tried and true tactics of supply interdiction to eventually force a withdrawal. It is likely that if crimea is recovered, it will be through some sort of indirect mechanism rather than some sort of head on storming.
That's how I think they would do it. The experts have underestimated Ukraine this entire war, but they have surprised everyone over and over again.
Crimea can be cut off quite easily, and the Russians will not have a valid response.
Rubbish. There is no Ukrainian military anymore. They died in their 00s of 000s sacrificed for the Western imperialists.
@@markkierznowski6121 you don't know what that word means do you? Russia is the only country acting like an imperialist.
Kherson was a liability without the ability to be resupplied; Russia's withdrawal from it was the smartest move they have made in the war. Kherson also has a dam upriver that if blown would send a 15 foot wall of water in Kherson in 20 minutes. The Russians no longer have to defend a vulnerable outpost while handing the same liability to Ukraine (think Russia wont blow that dam?). Crimea is different, there is no maneuvering or massive liability for Russia in fact their main naval port, Svestapol is located there. Ukraine taking Crimea will be bloody and would be something that could trigger a nuclear strike north of the Dnieper.
I'd like to think Ukraine can retake Crimea and not through brute force. The bottleneck can work against Russia too. With the bridge out, Russia has only the land bridge left to resupply and if HIMARS can get into range they can choke out the peninsula or at the very least remove them as a front to worry about thereby allowing troops to be moved elsewhere and preventing Russia from doing the same.
I agree. Slowly choke Crimea until the eventual collapse of the Russian empire.
I would agree if it was not for the fact Crimea is a lot bigger then the Russian Kherson landbridge ever was and has access to pontoonships that could not even be destroyed by HIMARS, even if Ukraine would end up with all it's territory back on Ukraine mainland.
Not to mention that without the bridges over Kherson back in working order, Ukraine's own supply lines would be quite stretched, even with the Crimean Russian landbridge being gone too.
Unless they can get their hands on something that can destroy targets up to 180km's, sure, the population will need to flee, but once one is talking about soldiers maintaining a frontline and reserves located on the peninsula, i feel it is in fact doable to keep up the defences.
Also, Ukraine could put pressure on the Ukraine/Russian border in the east forcing russia to defend it pulling troops from Crimea. If they are mobile enough, this could also be used as a feint while then pressing Crimea. Ukrainian mobility and Russia's level of intel on Ukrainian troop movements would play key roles.
For himars to get into range, they have to operate from southernkherson. A very limited area, where they can be easily located and hit with counterbattery fire.
Another thing about Crimea is "Supply Lines". Crimea is an island essentially, which Ukraine can easily cut off water supply. Crimea can easily survive on self-sustainment, but with 2mil and utilities being essentially cut off, how willing will current residents of Crimea would want to stick around living the "Dark Ages" with little to no communication, power, fuel and rationed water supplies. Then comes the military, mainly the naval fleet, which would need to play a delicate balancing act, on top of maintenance of fleet.
Ukraine doesn't have to send in the military, they can sit and let the over-extension of Russia to burn resources which they can ill-afford. Even if Russia resorts to a Berlin Airlift to Crimea, they won't have the parts to sustain the run for long, let alone the supplies.
"heritage is not destiny" well said
I remember seeing a "Free Ukraine" poster with a Ukrainian flag, in college dorm room, back around 1978.
The owner was the daughter of Ukrainian exiles.
I remember telling her "you know there's no way that's ever going to happen".
I'm a lot less certain, these days, of what's "never going to happen."
Never say never.
Well Crimea was “always” Russian, or at least never Ukrainian. Russias came to Crimea in the 1700’s, and did not leave. Ukraine was never the dominant force in Crimea, not even in the eastern parts of Ukraine. When Stalin died in the early 50’s the new leader in the Soviet Union got support from Ukrainian party leaders to get elected. As a thank you Crimea was given to Ukraine to be administered from Kiev. The people of Crimea was not happy about it, but as all was Soviet Union it was not a huge deal. After 1990 this changed, the result we see now. Over 8 million ethnic Russians lived within Ukraine borders, they prefer to have ties to Moscow, not Brussels, here is the core of the conflict, not the “evil” Putin or anything else.
@@truxton1000 Crimea was traditionally Tatar, until Stalin did his ethnic cleansing, not Russian. It was Kievan prior to that, and Greek before that.
None of which justifies Putin's military conquest.
And as for ethnic Russians within Ukraine - a great many of them very much do not want to live under Putin's kleptocracy.
@@jeffdege4786 No Crimea was not under Kiev, well part of it was 1000 years ago but seriously you can't use that today 1000 years later. Nor was eastern part of today's Ukraine. That the Tatar's was there and was moved was because of WW2 and their fondness of the Nazis. And still, that the Tatars no longer control Crimea is no different then the situations with the American Indians, the Celts in Britain or the Sami in Scandinavia. What matters is who is there now, and that my friend is predominately Russian people, 70% before 2014, and probably at least 80% now. That is the reality. And no, I am not a "Russian patriot", I am 100% neutral.
@Motorman Wow wow hold your horses dude. In 1700, no one had heard of Russia, and only in 1721 the Moscow kingdom changed its name to the Russian Empire. And only in 1784 they annexed the Crimean Khanate, and in 1917 the empire had already disintegrated. It's only 133 years, man.
And now follow my hands: the Russians from the foundation of the Moscow kingdom had an order of the Golden Horde model and therefore everything belonged only to the tsars, and then to the emperors.
The nobles owned only real estate, or rather the right to own real estate and the right t
for freedom, no right to own land. All others were ordinary slaves until 1848, and most of them actually remained so until 1917. And this means that for these 133 years Crimea was not owned by the people of Russia, but by its emperors. Then, until 1954, Crimea was part of the Russian Soviet Republic, for as many as 37 years. In 1954, it was handed over to Ukraine in exchange for the Kuban, and from 1954 to 2014, for 60 years, it belonged to the people of Ukraine. This is 23 years longer than the people of Russia and only about 73 less than the Russian emperors. Moreover, no one gave the Crimea, but they exchanged it.
I've been appreciative of your straight forward, factual approach to the whole "special operations" War in Ukraine. Keep up the posts, and the tidbits of wisdom, non-gratis.
On another note, ya got a cool name there Whistler,
Your devoted patron, Charles Lord
I got this video recommended to me under a Perun video and thought “huh, haven’t heard of this channel before” before being hit by the verbal whiplash of yet another Simon Whistler channel. I don’t know how you keep up this much content Simon but this video is well-researched, informed and even/handed. Well done, please give the writing team an extra ration of water and unsalted crackers.
It’s comical to see how many other people come here from recommendations on Perun videos
I do believe he has writers, editors and other staff so he can do what he does best.
Anything ending in "Ographics" are Simon, because he's Irish
CZcams should change its name to Simon and Friends.
The Fact Boi rabbit hole is deep but always entertaining and informative.
This is one of my favorite videos of yours. It is less speculation than some videos while still being much more future thinking than others, if that makes sense. How you lay out every aspect of the situation was very well done
Nice summary. Thank you.
Great summary Simon, thanks
Imagine starting a war only to lose territory
Russia gain territory not loss
@@johnfreeman9358Yes… The same way that of you look at a map of the world in 1943 and nothing else, you would still be under the impression that the Axis powers were ‘winning’ due to them still holding onto occupied territories. While in reality, they were getting pushed back by the Allies.
Like Germany in both world wars?
@@chankljp except this is more like examining a 1940 map and thinking it was as far as the Axis got. This is all still enveloping so nobody can say where the new boarders will lay and who will have lost what.
@@alastor8091 Putin is trying to get peace talks now because he knows he will likely lose the stolen territories.
The issue you give regarding Russia moving in ethnic Russians is a big part of why Lithuania didn't want Kaliningrad back when the USSR broke up: they didn't want to be made Russian.
Of course, I'm all in favor of making Kaliningrad Koenigsberg again, including expulsion.
Are you also in favor of returning 20 precent of poland back to Germany and deport all the polish who moved there when the soviet union kicked the germans? That's just stupid
I think you mean Germany? The area of today's Kaliningrad was never part of Lithuania, even at its greatest territorial extent.
@@Saufs0ldat various internet sources say that in the 50s Khrushchev offered it to Lithuania, who declined it due to it's heavily Russian population. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_question 4th paragraph of History has a couple sources for that.
I apparently had era wrong: I'd thought it was offered in the early 90s rather than the 50s. I don't think Lithuania was particularly independent at the time, but it didn't want to become majority Russian anyway.
@@Saufs0ldat apparently it was also offered to Germany in 1990, I guess I mixed the two events up. Not sure if Germany declined for the same reason or a different reason (Russia wanted payment).
@@totensiebush I just wanted to clarify since you said "Lithuania didn't want it BACK". Königsberg and the surrounding area had been in the control of German states and were predominantly German-speaking for centuries before Russia annexed it. The small part of East Prussia north of Königsberg (Memel) was predominantly Lithuanian and was returned to Lithuania after WWII.
Great Stuff as ever! Thanks for this!
Great channel and Simon is gold !
All the wars in the past 10 years has taught me is that any country without at least a single nuke is open to invasion by some random super power.
And Ukraine gave up their nukes, with an agreement Russia would never attack them, Crimea voted for independence from Russia with the rest of Ukraine in this period also.
Yup.
Yes.
@@OrangeNotLemonLime At the time when the Soviet Union broke apart, it made sense for Ukraine to give up the nukes. Maintaining a nuclear arsenal is quite expensive, and an ex-Soviet country that is essentially in economic and political free fall until it can find it's footing can't really afford to keep so many nukes. Plus, Ukraine did have these nukes lying around, but the launch codes were kept in Moscow. It doesn't make much sense to keep nukes when you don't have the ability to fire them.
That ... or be part of NATO.
Simon, thanks a lot for answering many questions I've asked myself while map-geeking on this conflict. Add to that the fact you did it in such an easy to understand and relatable way and I must consider this one of the best video's on Warographics thus far.
Superb presentation...thankyou
Very informative.
Yes. Could, Should, and hopefully Will soon...
Interestingly, "forever" in Russian means "for 8 months"
let's also remember the Russian phrase for retreating = goodwill gesture. We will be seeing more goodwill gestures in the next months I am sure.
Putin in February: If the West intervenes they will experience a punishment they’ve never seen.
Putin today: Plz can I have some Ukrainian lands? Please stop sending weapons to Ukraine.
No, no, their true objective was just to take X (where X equals whatever Russia is hanging onto right this minute).
You sound like Napoleon or. Hiddler
Crimea is Russian since 300 years ; Stalin gave it to UKRAINE.
Excellent analysis!
Simon, you're a legend. Been watching for years now and you keep getting better. Cheers!
1:25 - Chapter 1 - Unfinished business
4:40 - Chapter 2 - Staging ground
8:50 - Chapter 3 - Prisoners of geography
12:20 - Chapter 4 - Never say never
16:15 - Chapter 5 - Complications
- Chapter 6 -
It's still a big if whether Ukraine can sustain the rate of losses it's not publicly admitting to. I wish it were otherwise, but Russia will keep mobilizing until it has something to show for the invasion. Ukraine has a much smaller population and cannot afford to do the same. I think the west has been too chicken to provide the necessary weapons for Ukraine to take care of its war. Only the gullible still believes Putin can be pacified.
18:00 - Chapter 6 - "Get rid of Putin or NO peace..."
20:42 - Chapter 7 - collaboration
21:10 - Chapter 8 - deportation of the Russian squatters
At first it felt like retaking Crimea was a lost cause.
Then it was explained it would only be a stepping stone for a second and far more organized invasion attempt. Scary. That's more than enough reason for Ukraine to reclaim Crimea.
@Nicolai Myshkin No, you are mistaken - it's the other way around 🙄
@@nicolaimyshkin4116erm no Russia rigged the vote In Crimea
I know a Crimean and they said that the vote was rigged most of Crimea wanted to stay in Ukraine
If I was in charge of, Ukraine, I wouldn't risk the resources in taking back, Crimea. Use those resources to regain all that was lost during the invasion. Worry about winning the war, not just the battles.
To win this war, Sevastopol must fall. Inta tly if possible.
I mean, the second invasion attempt already happened and so far it's been a disaster to Russia...
"Opposition is code for about to fall out of a really high window"
I guess that's Rush's version of "make him an offer he can't refuse"
Excellent analysis
That clip of Simon in Vladimir Putin's head made me laugh.
This is the first I've seen of this channel, but I watch a few of your guys' others regularly. I'm blown away at how much stuff you put out at such a high quality. Great work 🍻
Yea Simon is some kind of future android-human mixture. It’s all very hush hush ofc but yea the man, or it? Doesn’t need to sleep apparently just a quick recharge mayhaps
Good analysis of the complexity, thanks!
Fantastic analysis
Russia didn't "want" a land bridge to Crimea, they "needed" a land bridge to Crimea. Both to secure the water and the power plants that fed Crimea. The kerch bridge wasn't enough to supply the island, and the population was beginning to sour on Russian rule that saw the collapse of agriculture and tourism.
Sounds like they should give up on Crimea.
💯% That's real reason for the invasion, not Nazi's or NATO.
@@0816M3RC just my opinion, cut off Crimea from resupply and wait for Russia to crumble under its own weight. They'll come to Ukraine on their own.
@@takeitasacompliment. the real reason for the invasion is the restoration of the reich aka soviet union
No they needed to get out of Crimea
Informative and interesting. Presented in a straight forward yet wry way. Excellent !
Excellent
Superb!
Thank you for a fair summarization of the current situation with Crimea. Have you thought about creating a video on the current civil war in Yemen? It hasn't been widely talked about like it should be.
There is no war, just a genocide, but their own fall for siding with Iran and fight Saudis..
He won't!
Fair summarization?😆😆
@@billyredecop9821 my sentiment also. No bias here, no.
Except that you have merely been told what you would lke to hear. The world is not turning on Ukraine. Not even Nato countries has stopped trading with Russia.Outside Nato only a few nato allies have reduced their trade but far from stopped. 80% of the world trade with Russia as they used to and of the involved parts Russia currently has the most healthy econymy, because Russia did not use their supply of energy and make stronger ties with the Bric countries that s far more populated and growing richer and they don´t give a damn about what we think about Russia and ukraine. On the other hand Saudi arabia just gave POTUS the middle finger. Wisely noone cares about Nato´s futile adventure in Ukraine.
A lot of people thought Ukraine standing up to Russia was never gonna happen.
When it was time for Ukraine to attack a lot of people said Ukraine was only a defensive force and do not have experience as attacking force.
When Ukraine built up its bait for Nazi-Russia around Kherson a lot of analysts also took the bait and said liberating Kehrson was highly unlikely since Ukraine told the enemy where their next action will be. They were temporarily right, because they first liberated Kharkiv.
A lot of people keep analyzing the battlefield with the conventional full-front attack paradigm. Those people, after almost a year, still have not understood how Ukraine fights.
Be surprised yet again as General Valerii Zaluzhnyi and his team are cooking up another cunning!
Really?
So 100k dead Ukrainian soldiers and 200k wounded to NEVER return to action…
Looks like victory?
Ukraines military is so decimated it’s relying on paid foreign operators.
Including isis fighters.
Ukraines chances of victory are exactly ZERO.
Only because numbers don’t go any lower.
The amount of propagandized delusions in the west are breathtaking in it’s ignorance and denial.
Don’t believe me?
Just sit back and watch.👍🥃
Doggone, these are fantastic videos. Thanks for making them!
saw a random video, liked it, clicked on it, saw Simon Whistler in yet another channel, was not surprised, was actually delighted
If you really want some good analysis on this conflict. I strongly recommend Perun. It is long format and can get dry unless you're really interested details. To be fair I really enjoy this channel as well. Just different levels of depth.
Bro we’re all already subbed to him 🫡
max katz is the only worthy one. while everyone wallows in conspiracies he says things like they are
At this point the questions isn't "if" but "when" Ukraine reclaims Crimea
Very good and far analysis!
Pretty polished presentation. Impressed.
One of the best theories explaining Russia's invasion of Ukraine was to create a land bridge to and restore water supply for Crimea. If Crimea gets cut off from water again it would be incredibly difficult for Russia to hold the peninsula.
If Ukraine cuts the land bridge and hits Kerch bridge again, the Russian military there will be isolated and in serious danger of being defeated or having to surrender.
I totally agree since its been sanctioned for 8 years while having no water, the agricultural economy fell, people are poorer and its logistical and financial headache for russia to maintain the peninsula
the russian built a water pipeline in the crimean bridge to avoid this ever happening again
so that perspective is no longer in effect ever since that bridge was built
@@louisxii3482 you mean the bridge that got messed up. And built by a regime claiming to not be on the loosing side?
@@louisxii3482temporary bridge
Truly a great video, thank you for making it.
Well that buggered up my Saturday plans, oh dear 😀😀😀😀
Thank you for addressing military, political and cultural complexities.
I recall a statement made by western military analysts that the Ukrainian security services have developed since the war began what's called "an Israeli view of the world". That is, if there is the mere possibility of a threat to national security then they neutralise that perceived threat and damn the consequences. Ergo Ukraine is now driven by eradicating any future possible threats to its national security; Crimea therefore cannot be allowed to remain in Russian hands. The Russian invasion from Crimea was the only successful front for Putin, they achieved their objectives rapidly while the attack on Kyiv bogged down and fell apart. A peace with Crimea remaining in Russian hands would just be a ceasefire.
quite frankly any peace treaty with putin is just fancy talk for ceasefire, or maybe rather a mid-show ad break
the big one for Russia is that if they let go of Sevastopol they lose their presence in the Black Sea, and thus their access to the Mediterranean and further the easiest route to the Atlantic. I don't see how it would make for a particularly good attack vector, yes you can fit a lot of tropps there but resupplying goes through bottleneck of a bridge that can be removed relatively easily, if need be
I like how you said israeli viewpoint which probably is true.
Although I'm not taking anything against israel, you have to understand one thing, that russia does not have the average arab army and two, russia unlike the arabs have nuclear weapons and alot of those weapons have capabilities of hitting deep and acurate targets.
@@gabrielaleactus9932 Sure, but Russia is doomed if they start launching nukes. That's a mine in the sand for NATO.
The weapons delivered to Ukraine is still very much "gloves on", not even talking about nukes.
@mic4495 You completely misunderstood Putin's objectives.
Crimea s still on Russian hands and there it will remain and should remain. Hopefully people don´t still believe that Nato has wunderwasse to send that will make a difference. And according to 2121 numbers on indexes there is less democracy in Ukraine than Russia. Level with Uganda, Liberia and Ceyon (SriLanka). The idea of a democratic Ukraine is based on ignorance, lies and propaganda. But there is more corruption in Russia.
One thing this overlooked is how would the Ukrainian people react if Ukraine were to concede the peninsula. The people of Ukraine have shown if their government makes a decision they strongly disagree with, they are prepared to do a sustained level of protest for weeks and months until they are listened to. Unlike in the west, where a 1-day march is what passes for a demonstration these days, and the government just does as they wanted to do anyway. Which is probably partly why Zelensky said what he said as he feels the Ukrainian people would not accept anything less.
Yep, to see how the Ukrainian population would react, we can just look back at the Maidan Uprising.
@@LowenKM to add to that zelensky is not that popular, theres a "rally around a flag" effect that sustains him now, but if he goes against it hes pretty much dead
@@Cultured_Anime_Waifu According to Russian elections, with an armed thug outside every polling station, where 110% of the voters proclaimed their love for Russia.
That's what the botskis never quite grasp. If Zelenesky said "actually, let's negotiate and concede some territory to the orcs", he'd be out of office within a week.
@Cultured Anime Waifu [Russian Waifu] not once theyre deported for illegal entry
Excellent overview. You have made me a supporter. Where’s my credit card?… lol 23:26
Another excellent presentation, as Usual. We should be very uneasy with any possibility of resolution. This is going to remain ugly for a long time.
I like Simon's delivery style and his insight, very well researched adding some humour to help communicate.
Agreed- bloody good effort. He needs to cancel Lloyd Grossman as his voice coach and watch more Clive James videos!
Poorly understood by Simon.
Love how you put this to where you want the audience to literally think for themselves. So happy to see a video like this.
He is lying.
@@spudwesth don't destroy my hope
@@spudwesth And I bet you never learnt about what happened to Chechnya in the past
@@spudwesth "Anything that is not russian approved propaganda is lies"
What a sad little russian drone you are
Please can we have a Warographics special on the 1991 sieges of Vukovar and Dubrovnik in Croatia? The one-sided tank battles, urban fighting, the innovations and tactical/strategic errors made are hugely relevant to today’s war in Ukraine. It was the biggest war in Europe since 1945 and seems to be repeatedly overlooked by experts and historians when various comparisons are made with Putin’s war in the media. Thanks.
This coverage is really impressive. Also, the way you talk is so rhythmic and often poetic it's almost like listening to a song.
I appreciate you part pointing out, part alluding to, the reality that _not_ retaking Crimea - whether by not trying, or trying and failing - is not actually an option of peace, stability or calm.
You are correct, but it was their territory. I'm not going to blame a country for wanting to take back territory that was stolen from them recently. But obviously all sides need to just stop military operations and come to the table to talk this out, before this spirals even further. Unfortunately I don't think this is close to reality, we don't have the right people in these high positions making rational decisions but Putin holds Lion share of the blame here for instigating and perpetuating it.
@@troywrzesinski9143 what does peace look like? Ukraine giving up huge swaths of territory? What’s to stop Russia from invading and claiming land from other countries?
Stalin put Crimea into the Ukraine.
Warographics is my favorite channel in the Whistlerverse. Cheers from Tennessee
🇺🇸♥️🇷🇺 🖕🇺🇦
@@chriscassel6621 Russia sucks, accept it bot
@@chriscassel6621 😔
Please say you didn't move here from California.
@@TomAndersonn 🙄
This is an amazing blog.
"Russia is here forever" sounds an awful lot like "a reich to last a thousand years" to me.
saw a video a while ago where there were people cheering/celebrating Ukraine's victory in Kherson in Sevastopol, so there is still hope
Victory in Kherson? LOL Marching into an empty town abandoned for good tactical reasons is not a victory.
I think Ukraine has every right to demand their international borders be restored before peace can be made. If they choose that, those who currently support them should continue to support them. If they can cut the land bridge through Mariupol, or anywhere else, they can cut all water to Crimea, they can cut the Kerch bridge, thus isolating Crimea and eventually it would surrender. It might take years, but they could eventually be fully cut off and could surrender Crimea.
Just not United states though. Those borders are wide open
And the globalists would happily slaughter all 5 million Russians.
@@cdybft9050 never got why people think the US is the world's only country that needs to allow everyone into the country just because they want in and why the US is the only country in the world who shouldn't be allowed to defend their own borders. People often point out how the US used to allow tons of people in and bring up the statue of liberty and its placard saying "bring me your huddled masses" but they ignore how the US had limits on how many people could come into the US from different countries and they had virtual bans on immigrants from some countries, few people from Asia or Africa or South America were allowed to come in and there were strict limits on the number of slavs coming in which is why so many germans, Italians, and Irish came in through Ellis Island but few from Africa or Asia came in during the same time (mant Chinese came earlier but the US tried to limit those once the main rail roads were built).
Starving/sieging out the military also means the same for the civilian population. That would cause Ukraine to quickly lose international support if the civilian population is seen to suffer greatly due to the actions of Ukraine.
Not a good option imo.
@@Duga11111 the rightfully citizens of Crimea we're deported by Russia twice!
Simon, you end up being in all my recommended videos! Warographics isn’t even listed on your website; calm down brother!
(Also, you do a very good job of changing the tone for each of your videos. The “Science of Science Fiction” videos make me laugh hysterically.)
I have been awaiting this video for months! Thank you Simon and the Warographics Team!
May I add something the author has ommited. To start with the Crimea as a seat of Crimea Tatar Khanate was conqured in 1783 by Russian imperial army administered from Saint-Petersburg and it started Sevastopole Naval Base there which Russia now can not afford to loose. No Ukraniain's credit for it. Crimea was formally and oficially in Russian Federation until 1954, when Khruschev tranfered Crimea within the USSR from Russia to Ukraine for the sake of building water supply channel but leaving Sevastopole as a city into direct sudordination to the USSR, not to Ukraine or even Russia. There is no evident grounds for Ukraine to claim Crimea Ukraniain. Population of Crimea not 60 but 80% ethnic Russians even before 2014. Hello from Moscow!
I think it’s right for the post-2014 transplants to get the boot. They took a gamble on it staying Russian, and that bet didn’t pay off. They knew the risk, so don’t feel bad sending them home. It’s been less than a decade, can’t allow ethnic cleaning to go rewarded or else Russia will do it again
No one had an issues kicking out colonists, even ones who'd been there for generations, no reason to do any different with some Russian colonists who moved in a few years ago. Especially since Russia routinely uses Russian colonists to interfere with other countries, it's how they kept many of their colonies in line and why many central Asian countries are hesitant to piss off Russia even today.
I think a big chunk of the transplants would move back to Russia as Ukrainian forces got closer.
@@the0ne809 many have. Russia claims that over 2 million (I've heard numbers of 2.4 and 2.5) have moved from Ukraine to Russia recently, Russia exaggerates a ton but even if it's 10% that number that's still a fair amount of people.
@@arthas640 "Russia" IS central Asian in many significant ways.
@@arthas640 but I believe they were talking about Russian speaking Ukrainians. Pretty sure they included tens of thousands of Ukrainians that they have kidnapped from Ukraine including children.
Sorry about my voice texting mistakes and hope you get the drift.
I enjoyed watching the intense look at the challenging, practical, and tactical aspects of retaking Crimea by Ukraine.
Thank you for a brilliant, lucid, comprehensive summation of the situation as it stands now, and of the possible consequences.
You should have used the word "siege" once or twice. While it has drawbacks, breaking the land bridge and conducting a long siege of Crimea, while targeting resupply boats with drones, would have the dual effect of degrading defenses while convincing a great many people still living there that it is time to ago, thus greatly helping with the fifth column issue as well.
And there is a third advantage: it keeps Ukraine's ultimate intentions slightly more ambiguous (as compared to a direct assault), like they are perhaps offering an off-ramp of allowing Russia to retain Crimea if they agreed to peace. Regardless of whether that that implicit off-ramp were genuine, I think such ambiguity and tension would be in Ukraine's favor.
Long siege would make sense. Ukraine could conserve its resources while Russia burns through ITS resources as it continues to support the Black Sea Fleet, its army and the Crimean population via the Kerch Bridge, ferries, freighters and air transport. If Russia continues its aggression, Ukraine could respond by attacking the vulnerable bridge and fleet with drones and cruise missiles. Also it could maintain the blockage of the Dnipro River canal that supplies water to Sevastopol. Ukraine could continue this long strangulation of Crimea while making offers of policies to win hearts and minds of Russophile Crimeans if they join Ukraine. Eventually Crimea might get partitioned.
I completely disagree. UA _could _*_not_* mount an effective siege of Crimea, any more than say, the Spanish Army could mount a siege of Gibraltar. In fact, even less so. Sieges only work if you can deprive the area of resupply. And RU has the capacity and ready infrastructure to indefinitely supply Crimea with most of what it would need (except if UA manages to cut Crimea out of the power grid). While UA could disrupt RU's access overland, it would have no way to prevent RU's resupply by air, bridge or sea.
@@roberthaines4221 Well this is all dependent on the arms we give them. I believe the West will ultimately give them stronger and stronger weapons due to various logistical and sociopolitical forces at work (this is a long and complex debate though.) Long story short, the bridge can be finished off with more truck bombs, ship bombs or perhaps ATACMS. Small suicide drone boats are not expensive, are very easy to ramp up production of, and they can keep away resupply ships.
Air resupply is the least plausible option given Ukraine's air defenses are already strong and we're shipping them even more to counter the current threat to infrastructure targets. (Some people seem to believe that Russia's missile and drone strikes demonstrate Ukraine's air defenses are woefully deficient, but these people are neglecting to differentiate between cruise missile/suicide drone targets and fighters/bombers. It's ok if Russia loses 50% of their suicide drones / cruise missiles per mission to air defenses. It is NOT ok for Russia to lose 50% of their fighters/bombers/resupply planes per mission to Ukraine's air defenses.)
@@roberthaines4221 I'd also like to reiterate what I said about getting rid of the pro-Russian fifth column in Crimea. Thus, even if the Russian military manages to adequately resupply themselves, it's still a *huge* long term strategic advantage if you make life hard enough that 90% of the pro-Russian colonizers now living there decide to leave.
If and when Crimea is eventually regained (either through an invasion or in the aftermath of huge internal strife that will presumably be hitting the Russian Federation sometime in the next 5-10 years), not having a huge pro-Russia fifth column to worry about is incredibly valuable. With that fifth column still in place, Ukraine risks Crimea turning into a perpetual West Bank type area.
@@roberthaines4221 Spain doesn't invade Gilartar because Spain can't compete with the whole army of the UK, not because it cannot compete with Gibraltar. Ukraine CAN compete with the whole of Russia and successfully proved it. Furthermore, the loss of the South of Ukraine and Donetsk will cause such political instability inside of Russia, so we probably wouldn't even need to invade Crimea. Will just take it with bare hands out of from hands of collapsing Russian government. Same way as they took it from us when we had a political crisis in 2014.
Very interesting, Simon. You did raise a number of very relevant scenarios I'd not even considered, like the transplanting of ethnic Russians into the population of Crimea, the breaking down of why, at this time at least, Ukraine just doesn't have the logistics or materiel to undertake such a large scale invasion. Now, something you'd expected: Your pronunciation of Kyiv fluctuated between Ukrainian and Russian, which is perfectly OK, as there are a number of native Russian-speaking Ukrainians (notably Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine). However, be aware that cities beginning with the letters Kh..., drop the K sound, and is more of the ch, sound found in the Scottish "loch," -- so for Kherson it would be "herr-SON" and not "KAIR-son" and for Kharkiv, it would be "HAR-keev," not "CAR-kiv," Sorry, mate. I didn't wish to take away all the good things in your video, over a couple of small things like this.
Thank you! I learned from this
People who never set foot in the army get the weirdest ideas.
Yeah I've been studying Russian for a few months and I STILL get tripped up on the "K" sound actually being more of a "kH" sound. Not a natural sound for an English speaker to make.
10:20 that's MAJGEN (Rtd) Mick Ryan
Everyone wants that sweet, sweet oil almost no one is talking about (offshore)
At around 13:00 to at least 14:30 (I am there now) there's a lot of talking.
Talking about things on a map, specifically.
A few maps of the terrain/region would have been useful. 👍
Balanced commentary!
3:54 loved that burn! 😂
To date, retired US Lt General Ben Hodges has done a really good job of predicting how this war would unfold. For what it's worth, he predicts that Ukraine will retake Crimea by mid-2023.
Time will tell.
It will happen Russia is already retreating to the east… The east is more important than Crimea. Land borders are much more important
@@cooldudecs Not to Russia. You need to look at why Russia took Crimea in the first place, and how.
Ever since the USSR collapse, Russia had leased the Sevastopol Naval Base from Ukraine to continue to have access to the Black Sea - the Mediterranean. Without it, Russia becomes a non-player in the Middle East, Africa, Indian Ocean and Southern Europe. When the Maidan Revolution happened and Zelensky signaled toward EU and NATO memberships, Russia saw the writing on the wall: the end of the lease and the Black Sea fleet. This is the reason why most Russians were pro-Crimean in terms of taking it. They could not lose that fleet and the region. There’s nothing else worth anything in Crimea really. It has no known natural resources or other use. It’s simply a strategic foothold.
I think Crimea is more vulnerable than mid-23. It will be like Kherson; starved out - stores and supplies destroyed, and the lines of comms interdicted and starved of all military logistics.
If done by force, it will be a fascinating accomplishment. If it does happen, I hope that not many more will die for this stupid war.
@@afcgeo882 you have this largely correct. The way to retake Crimea is to completely blow the Kirch bridge and reestablish the dam supplying fresh water to Crimea. When they cannot resupply their troops and there is no fresh water, Crimea will collapse and the Russians will have to bring back the ferries that were used before the Kirch bridge was built, as a means of retreat. The Russian Black Sea fleet will have to retreat if the Ukrainians control access to it. This will probably mean that Russia will have a hard time continuing their support of Assad in Syria. Speaking of dominoes.
At the beginning of the war people were saying that Kiev would fall within a week that dint happen nothing is out of the question if you’re willing to fight for it “either you stand for something or die for nothing “
thanks for the football field measurement. I wouldn't have understood otherwise.
😆 Strongish Navy 🤣
That gave me a really good chuckle.
It doesn't have to retake crimea. It just cuts the water off and fire the odd missile at the main bridge plus mine the sevastopol or keep the ships from sailing
If I was in charge of, Ukraine, I wouldn't risk the resources in taking back, Crimea. Use those resources to regain all that was lost during the invasion. Worry about winning the war, not just the battles.
The Ukrainian gov't has been killing Russians for 75 years. Crimea is Russian since 300 years.
Ukraine has Harpoon missiles and their own Neptune missiles. Russian ships may not be able to get close enough to do anything.
Kalibre joins the chat.
@@ebiekem The Ukrainians turned the Flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet into a habitat for fish and crustaceans!
@@ebiekem as mentioned, the Russian Black Sea Fleet should, on paper, not be worried.
However, as we discovered, they're very fucking worried and the Moskva ate shit to something it shouldn't eat shit to.
The Black Sea Fleet is a paper tiger. Ferocious on paper, but crumbles in reality. It's not working as intended and that's why it's scared.
@@planetmikusha5898 yeah....tell me, where's the Ukrainian Navy?.....yep....thought as much..
@@ebiekem So how did a country with no navy to speak of sink 5 Russian navy ships and 5 patrol boats?
That ending made me think this was an “into the shadows” video
How many channels does this guy have? How does he manage it all?
Hmm, spicy
Quality Content Simon and Morris!
Excellent Video and Witty summation of the challenges and difficult choices that face both Ukraine and The West over Crimea.
NATO 650 million , Russia 150 million....Russia is facing the challenges. 10 times as many drones.
I like how many "experts" changed their rhetoric from "Kyiv will fall after 72 hours" to "Can Ukraine retake Crimea by force?". The next message will be "How many parts russia will be splitted to?".
who are these experts? when did they say that?
I think you just saw 2 or 3 articles and decided that must be what everyone thinks
those darn experts!
I believe there is a mistake on 10:25
What’s the Maj. Generals Name? Mick Ryan?
I overall agree with all of this. I think one thing not mentioned that is worth pointing out is that Crimea may be difficult to attack, but it will be just as difficult to defend since logistics to the peninsula can be cut. It is also easier for Ukraine to defend the isthmus if they reach it than it is for russia because it is on the Kherson side of Crimea. Once Ukraine gets close enough to attack the isthmus they will have anti-air and anti-shipping missiles covering the Sea of Azov making defense of the isthmus by russia nearly impossible. Crimea is going to be another Kherson where russia is trapped and must withdraw or lose their army. I think this will become clear in June 2023. Also, all the big russian military assets in Crimea are liabilities because they are not designed to fight an on-shore army in waters infested with missiles and drones. If the russian air force was competent I would agree that taking Crimea back would be nearly impossible, but the russian navy and air force have proven to be ineffective. Finally, if Ukraine gets long range missiles for HIMARS everything tilts in Ukraine's favor. They will be able to destroy big expensive russian assets right in front of people sunbathing who then post videos of the wreckage just before they move back to russia. Ukraine has almost everything they need to take back Crimea now given time and continued intelligent military planning and any further weapons upgrades will seal the deal.
Nato drones will slaughter the Russians.
Two words - siege and blockade.
They just need to cut off crimea from russia by destroying the bridge putin built and then either sink or cripple nearly all of the black Sea fleet and then you could just simply blockade the supplies coming in from russia with naval forces same thing happened to Germany by the uk in ww1 and it was effective
The people of Crimea have to fight off the neo Nazis
Yellowbird of course. Without their help, the liberation of Crimea from Russian occupation will be harder.
Great analysis, thank you.
I also loved how you speak of Prague :)
Nice Predator reference
“Dug-in like a summer tick”
I love your videos but could you be any more quiet, in every video if the volume is not full your sound drops in any out making it difficult to understand or easy to miss parts of whole sentences
Brilliant breakdown.
Very clear & concise.
Thank you Mr. Whistler & co.
🇷🇺 🇷🇺 🇷🇺 Slava Rossiya you ukrainazi.🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺
Too bad he is talking out of his backpipe.🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺
🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺
@@dominicczajka6005 Nazi Russia will never win
@@dominicczajka6005 Nazis live in Russia
Nice wrap up and measured logical commentary.
Kerch bridge wasn't a truck bomb.
I still love you though, whistle-boi! I follow most of your channels :) happy holidays!
OK. Now lets do it!
Great video Simon, some recent reports Dnipro river has been crossed by Ukraine
A few scouts are not a liberation force.
16:23 I fell out of my chair XD
Krimea is like Kherson but with two rivers instead of one.. One between Ukraine's mainland, other between Russia and Krimea. And the latter actually is bigger.
At 3:50 you do some unit conversion, and one of the units for some reason gets converted into football fields.
Since this is clearly intended for international viewers, I have one question: what kind of football field? Soccer? American? Australian?
If he had included measurements in feet would you be asking clarification on whether it's human feet, elephant feet, table feet or flamingo feet? What does 90% of the world population call football? Hint: It's not a sport played mainly with hands
While I agree with all of the points made showing the difficulty of retaking Crimea, there are also som strengths in those points for the Ukrainian Army. The Russians are cut off from Crimea and a siege style offense for a while would starve them out.
If I was in charge of, Ukraine, I wouldn't risk the resources in taking back, Crimea. Use those resources to regain all that was lost during the invasion. Worry about winning the war, not just the battles.