What's REALLY Happening With Vintage Card Prices? Let's Look At The Data To Find Out!!
Vložit
- čas přidán 30. 05. 2024
- Most of us collect cards because we enjoy them. We love the history. We love the players. We love the teams. We love the hunt. But, the vintage baseball cards that we collect, also have value. Some of us care about the values a lot. Others of us don't care about values much at all. But, MOST of us at least care about values to a certain extent. One year ago I took a look at the values of 10 different cards from the 1950s: Bob Gibson, Yogi Berra, Sandy Koufax, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Ernie Banks, Whitey Ford, Eddie Mathews, Warren Spahn, and Bob Feller. I decided to check back in and see how those card prices have done over the last 12 months. Not only did we check on the prices of cards, but we looked at them for every grade from PSA 1 through PSA 9. The results were extremely interesting, and they certainly give us a bit of a snap shot as to what's happening in the vintage card market.
Here's a link to the original video I posted on CZcams about a year ago: • What's REALLY Happenin...
Some of my other recent videos:
PSA's CEO Shares Big Changes at PSA: • Several Big Changes an...
Multiple Pickups at an Epic Card Show: • The Best Card Show I'v...
Has the Card Collecting Community Lost Their Minds: • Have Card Collectors L...
Avoid this Common Card Collecting Mistake: • Card Collectors Can't ...
Why to Buy the Card and Not the Grade: • The Best Advice: "Buy ...
Buying HOF RCs Before they're HOFers: • Buy Their Cards Before...
A Recent May 2023 Card Show Vlog: • Rocklin Card Show Vlog...
Going back in time to see what vintage cards were worth in 1986: • Baseball Cards Have Go...
Why We Should Be Buying PSA 1s: • Here's Why I Think You...
Better understanding the supply and demand of sports cards: • How to Predict the Fut...
A Recent Card Show With Tons of Vintage and t206 Cards: • This Card Show Was Loa...
My Analysis on whether Rookie Cards are Overrated: • Are Rookie Cards Reall...
My Dad's Estate Sale Find of a Lifetime; A Shoebox of Vintage Cards: • Finding a Shoebox of V...
Why PSA is Still Beating SGC: • The Reasons Why PSA is...
Top 5 Undervalued Vintage Rookie Cards: • Why Are These 5 Vintag...
Consider following me on other platforms:
Twitter: @MidLifeCards
Instagram: @MidLifeCards
TikTok: @MidLifeCards
Email me at: MidLifeCards@gmail.com
#vintagecards #baseballcards #sportscards #thehobby
All statements and opinions shared in this video (and all of my videos) are for entertainment purposes only, and are not investment advice. I consider Sports Cards to be a hobby, and not an investment. If you're interested in investment advice, I recommend connecting with a certified financial planner. - Sport
My hunch is that lower grades (3-5) will experience a nice, steady increase in value as demand grows with collectors re-entering the market after a 30+ year absence (like myself) that have limited budgets as they dip their toes back in. Plus, there are some really great looking 3-5 grade vintage cards out there.
I think that's a good bet, for sure.
I'm 46, I collected sports cards in the 80s and early 90s. Stopped for 30+ years. I now have Sports Card Fever, and I'm on a mission to buy all the vintage rookie cards I've always wanted but couldn't afford as a kid. Gonna use my stock portfolio's dividends to acquire vintage cards.
I'm a rugby card collector from New Zealand, but I absolutely LOVE vintage baseball cards. Unfortunately I don't own a single one. Postage to New Zealand (NZ) makes buying graded cards and getting them sent here almost a bit prohibitive, especially for the lower graded/valued cards. Collecting graded cards in NZ is rare, with most collectors being set-builders, placing ungraded cards in albums. But in the last year I have been hooked on vintage baseball card channels and have grown to love the baseball greats of Babe Ruth, Yogi Bera, Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Walter Johnson, Ty Cobb, Cy Young, Di Maggio. I think ALL T205 and T206 cards are magnificent, and with the different backs makes them even more fun to collect. Whilst I never used to think much of 'graded' cards, I have now grown to appreciate the fun to be had in collecting individual graded cards, and building a collection of cards all with the same grade (Grade 3 preferred but Grades 2-4 also totally fine). And I'm now in the camp that loves centered cards. I'm envious of the number of card shows in the U.S. where large numbers of these very cool cards are on offer. Bliss. I will definitely bite the bullet at some point and start to buy the odd card. I'll finish by saying that of all the channels I watch, to me, yours is by far the best. I love the analysis that you do, they're my favorite videos. Keep up the fantastic work Graig.
That's awesome. Thanks so much for the kind words. It really means a lot.
As an American and a baseball card collector, your comment is really encouraging and inspirational. I do hope you will have future opportunities to build up your collection. Maybe rugby cards will also take off here in the U.S.
@@alltimesportscards Thanks matey. We're so lucky to be involved in such a fun hobby that is so full of really cool people. And, I will definitely be investing in a few Vintage Baseball cards at some stage 🙂
Thank you for the great analysis, really appreciate your hard work. Thanks for sharing
Thanks Orlando. You're always so kind.
There's a lot going on with the data. I think the simplest thought for me is that a lot of cards are getting cheaper, and cards I never thought I'd be able to afford are getting closer and closer to my wheelhouse. Like the Gibson and the Banks! Thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers for us, Graig!
Agree. Cards coming down a little in price is good for buyers...but bad for sellers.
Gave a video like. Enjoyed seeing a snapshot of what some of the vintage cards are selling for in relation to the recent past. Thanks for sharing
Thanks so much.
The Eddie Matthews # is wild! The mid range grades essentially holding serve is really good news. Suggests what I see at shows myself. A relatively healthy market for collectors and dealers.
Agree across the board, my friend.
Great analysis Graig! I wish the cards on my list followed those trends... 🤣. Thanks for putting the time into making this!
LOL. You crack me up.
Liked, Shared, and Super Thanks. This is the kind of vintage card video I love and will pay for. The camaraderie videos are fun in their way, but for me it comes down to the cards. This research was very interesting and valuable. There seems to be some mixed signals on some cards, probably due to anomalous sales.
But my overall impression was that buying lower-grade cards (2, 3, 4, sometimes 5) with good centering and eye appeal is still the way to go. Probably 75% or more of my recent additions have been driven by that strategy. Previously 6 had been my floor, now it's my ceiling. (Exception: 1970s HOF rookies I will still buy in 7 holders if the deal is good.)
I appreciate all of that. Thanks so much. Means a lot.
cards are down but I’m ok with it. I spent 30k in 2020… worth maybe 2k now but I collected what I like so it’s fine! And I spent 5k last week on breaks and hit nothing but I had a great time so it’s fine!
I like your positive attitude about it!!
I will try to do a vintage Football episode, since that’s what I tend to follow.👍
I look forward to it. When you're done, I'll be interested to see the results.
This was like watching espn classic! Happy to see you starting off the summer with a bang!
Thanks Theo.
This data doesn't surprise me since I have been buying lots of cards over the past few years and I have noticed the incredible deals you can get right now on Higher Graded cards while not as good of deals on low grade cards. This is currently a buying opportunity IMO for the higher end ones due to the huge drop since 2022. I have also noticed that low grade cards are more consistent and sell often (More buyers, more demand). I think another reason is the economy has slowed for most card investors and most people just can't afford the higher graded cards, therefore there is a much lower demand for those cards and that causes the prices to drop. The run-up over the pandemic was due to people being flush with cash due to stimulus checks and bailouts of small businesses. Now that time is over and people are feeling the crush of high interest rates and inflation and money is tighter. People are willing to sell high end cards for bargains. Buying opportunity due to less demand.
I think the economy is certainly part of it. I think you make some really good points.
Great presentation and work. Very enjoyable.
Thanks so much. Appreciate that, my friend.
Hi Graig,
Thanks for your dissertation on the values of vintage cards. I personally love a down market for buying and I don’t sell my cards anymore. I’m in the homestretch of my collecting and I’m always looking for bargains.
As usual you have provided knowledge and joy!
Have a great weekend and good luck with your collecting.
Best Wishes,
Peter
Thanks so much.
Grail Channel! Appreciate everything you do.
Thanks so much. That means a lot.
Man, your level of research is insane. It’s been over a year since that last video?! Sheesh
If people are willing to spend time watching one of my videos, I want to put in the effort to make it WORTH their time!!
@@MidLifeCards you do my friend. Brilliant
Graig, thanks for bringing this to us! I think another factor is the tougher grading over the last few years, so that we might be buying more recently graded cards that are actually a half grade or a grade better than older graded cards. This should create upward price movement, but things generally seem to be flat over the last year, so, there could be some actual decline in value that is propped up by tougher grading!
That's a REALLY REALLY interesting point...and I think it's worth talking about more. Maybe you and I should do a video and discuss that topic sometime soon!!
@@MidLifeCards I would be honored to discuss it with you, my collecting brother!
😊👊
Great video.. Thanks for the hard work. To me, the 2022 boom during covid threw everything out of whack. The last year some healing has occurred. This seems encouraging that vintage is holding is ground from the all time high.
Agreed. It'll be hard to know when things have finally normalized, but I think we're probably close.
Hey Graig, another great video. I think the level of quality you get in the 4's and 5's these days have become very appealing to most collectors. I dont know if its just me but the amount of 7's I see that are OC just doesn't justify the inflated price. I really wish the centering (i should say OC) would reflect the grade more than it does.
I REALLY think that's a great point and so true. The tougher grading standards have certainly changed the market.
so much information! would love the same comps with SGC. Completely agree with the higher grade stuff with the economy. to quote a favorite movie i’ll take the “cheaper chicken “
The ONLY reason I used PSA data is because there is a greater volume of sales in PSA holders, so there was more data to use.
With Yogi going up it could b that I believe didn't he have a TV show that came out about him? Great show Graig! Thanks
GREAT point!!
great analysis. Thanks for doing the work. Apparently, vintage is not cratering like modern down 50-90%. Imagine that?
Nothing beats a guaranteed 5.25% "Investment" like good a old fashioned bank account! At least in my old age.🤣😅I'll take it and run like rabbit with thorn in paw.
Happy Friday Funday!
I have a question for you on the "modern down 50-90%". One analysis I saw said that was mainly due to the boom/bust nature of modern cards. The one they brought up was Trey Lance. His cards were much higher priced buy is was all speculation. Not just cards but he was a huge question mark. Is some of the "down 50-90%" just there are so many bubbles as players are up and coming and everyone wants in early and often these cards aren't able to maintain those prices. Vintage cards aren't nearly as volatile. We all know Mickey Mantle was very good. So his stuff is more likely to be steady at least on that front so fluctuations are more likely market fluctuations than speculators "guessing wrong" on a guy/card.
Side note:I personally collect Trey Lance so I am laughing all the way to the bank as I pick up his cards for pennies on the dollar from what some of these cards were selling for a couple years ago.
Crazy that savings accounts are back up that high after so many years of being close to zero.
This is shocking. Fantastic research. Thank you. If you take into account real inflation (not the fake government CPI), you need to take off an additional 8% for each year. Interesting how 3s and 4s are most stable, and high grades crashing, an indicator of how people are now buying the card, not the grade. You really neeed to do an analyis of a Jackie Robinson.
I mentioned inflation in the video, and I totally agree with you. The inflation rate being close to 10% makes these numbers even more interesting.
I think the pricing anomalies are all caused by Mike and Chris’ Showcase Showdown!
LOL. That's hilarious.
Great work. A lot of effort went into this. I realize it would be a lot of work and it is unfair of me to tell you, "Go back and gather mlre data" but when there's atrong suspicion of an outlier it is my understanding that median/mode can lend greater clarity than mean alone.
Overall, great content.
Agree on median and mode. With only a few sales, there is unlikely to be a common mode, but the median may be the best option.
Love it! Can you link the excel template?
Also, is the current 2024 price an average or last comp on ebay ?
great analysis.
I was looking for the original excel spreadsheet, but couldn't find it. May have been on my work computer. So, I used screen shots.
Great Video Graig 👊🤙🤙
Thanks D.
Thanks!
Thanks so much!! Super appreciated.
I have been saying for 2 years that we are still not back to pre-covid prices on any era yet. All of these cards are chugging at a different pace back to 2019 levels. Will they get back to exact 2019 levels, i don’t think so because there are more collectors than 5 years ago.
People who were out of the hobby for 20 years forget that prices were stagnant for 2 decades. That’s why the older vintage collectors have such great collections because they got them really cheap. You can tell cause they have most of them in older PSA or SGC slabs.
This hobby is still way overvalued and i think cards keep getting cheaper. Every card is different because of amount of sales and condition, but for collectors like us, it’s a good thing.
It's certainly possible. I think the inflation rate will have an effect on it...if the dollar keeps losing value, it will likely to take more of them to buy the same cards.
@@MidLifeCards If inflation remains high, and the value of the dollar decreases, many collectors will have less discretionary income available to buy cards.
Some of my thoughts: Bob Gibson 1959 Topps is a recogonizable card. For vintage collectors such as ourselves. An overall percentage one point loss, in the past year is not bad at all. I kind of put Gibson and the Whitey Ford 1951 Bowman in a similar category.
The Sandy Koufax 1957 Topps being down so much is a bit surprising to me. I mean I really like the card. And Koufax too. But still, very early early in his career. Could be a buying opportunity here.
Ted Williams: What I've learned, Williams is sneaky popular in the hobby. He has a strong fan base of collectors. Maybe not, Mantle, Jackie, Clemente, Aaron and Mays are mentioned a lot, but Ted isn't far behind IMO.
Mike, Junk Wax Hero, bought a copy recently of the 1956 Topps Williams. I think in a '3' for $250.
1955 Topps Mays: Yep. Not surprising. I think there are some collectors who are buying Mays cards because they know his age. I've even heard someone say they want to hold on to their cards because he hasn't passed away yet, which is a sad thought. But also, kind of why the Koufax sales were as I said surprising as well. Sandy is 88.
In a buyers market. Or a sellers market. There's demand for the cards and players that there will be demand for. Mays, Williams, etc. What these prices will look like in another decade from now, time will tell. But my guess would be vintage collectors will still want some of these same cards and players. Great video. Thanks for the research you put into it too. To me: There could be more ''safety'' in the mid-grade than there is in higher grades.
I think your analysis across the board is really good. I especially like your point about Ted Williams.
Yogi had a documentary released last year that likely impacted his card prices. Several of your selections just had so few sales I’m not sure what could be derived from that data. Thanks.
That's a great point. That likely has something to do with it.
@@MidLifeCards The ‘Last Dance’ effect lol 🤣
Graig, here’s and interesting Q&A debate: Because the modern day analytics pitcher (2015-present) is on a strict pitch count, are they a dying breed for the Hall of Fame in the future? The starting pitcher is becoming much like the RB in the NFL where the days 300 wins (maybe 200) are over. I’m not talking about Verlander, Scherzer or Kershaw as they were the last generation of pitchers that would go 7+ innings routinely per start.
About two weeks ago someone asked a question like this....asking if any pitchers will ever make the hall of fame anymore. I addressed some of this.
You keep forgetting about Jackie!
I didn't include him....and probably should have.
It is mind boggling that we let grading companies dictate the values of cards on a subjective criteria. Different graders, different companies, what are the standards? Are there standards? Are graders evaluated and if so who certified them?
10 different grade levels what determines criteria for grading level?
I would also be concerned with the ''training'' and standards graders and the companies are held too.
I think that's a great point and something people need to talk about more often.
I have found that many of the poor condition cards I bought in 2020-21 I can get much nicer examples now, for the same money. It’s a good time to buy if you can afford to
I agree.
Interesting analysis. However I believe that far far fewer conclusions can be drawn from this type of analysis on vintage because of the wide range of card types due to eye appeal within a given grade level. In vintage all psa 2s of a Banks rookie vary significantly in eye appeal and value. This applies to most vintage. This analysis would be more revealing for modern cards where a given grade level is much more representative of ALL of the cards in that level. Most modern 9s of a card look nearly identical. What can be concluded from this is cards prices generally are dropping. Obviously with inflation exceeding income people have less money to spend on fun. This is good for collectors with extra cash and irrelevant to collectors who are trying to pay their bills.
Good points and I think you bring up some valid concerns. Not all 2s or 3s or 4s etc are the same. That's certainly part of it. But, all we can analyze is the data that we have. So, it's certainly not perfect and I mentioned a few times and I do believe it's better than nothing. It would take such a DEEP dive into the data to analyze each card in the evaluation, as your mention. Very good point, for sure.
I just keep on buying some i overpay some not ,,could care less on value .im sick that way 10 k in two months😳😳😳
LOL. But, you're having fun!!
You need to report the “N” (Sample Size) for the Grade you are Analyzing. None of you guys ever does that - why? That’s a basic Descriptive Statistical “Step 1”. You cannot just say “Average” without the “N” … SAMPLE SIZE…. Why do you guys ALWAYS forget or Omit this? AND you need to include the TIMEFRAME. What date RANGES did the SAMPLE fall within so we can know that you are not Cherry 🍒 Picking dates from Inappropriate dates such as Before 2019 or at the Peak in 2021…. If you do, then you NEED to “SMOOTH” out the data to account for Spikes or Non-Natural data trends. Did you not know this - Why??? (12:33 - And you should Not Average, Averages - Again, you are not accounting for the Sample Size… Oye Vei!)
I think that's a fair point about the N. No doubt. I didn't do that in the original, so it would be hard to go back and find it out now.