Your Second Round Picks Are Worthless...
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- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
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0:00 - it's rude to skip intros
0:43 - video goals
1:43 - data parameters
4:07 - 2019 review
7:30 - 2020 review
10:36 - 2021 review
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I get the parameter, but for example pittman in his second year with 14 FPPG is red. Which might be outside of the 24 players of his position, but by no means a failed season. His value even shot up that year and yet it is red. I think this kind of creates a worse picture than the reality. (This gets underlined by you saying in the end that 95 out of a 117 they were NOTHING for your roster... which is obviously not the case)
Also, looking at this chart, it seems like pittman and higgins have the same success as gibson for example. I know, it's based on facts and yet it creates a wrong image imo
I agree, a wr 30 season for example would show up here as being worthless when in reality they were a useful flex option in a 12 team league (especially a start 3 wr league). Even though that player isn't worth as much as other, better players, they're worth more than a player like treadwell or reagor who were completely useless in fantasy. Maybe a third category for flex option players would give a more accurate representation of the data
I hear what you’re saying but from the lens of how most people value 2nd it feels like most people will easily send a 18-24ish player for a 2nd rounder and the better practice if you’re trying to find producers is to grab those top-24 producing vets that get age discounts
WR "Fair Hits" probably needs to be expanded to top 36.
You look at even the top 25-45 FPPG for 2023, you have a bunch of WRs that were weekly flexible starters. Rashee Rice would be considered a "failure" by this metric for his rookie year.
It appears to be set up for shallow starting rosters like start 8, but even then Pittman matters, so maybe start 7, but still Pittman matters even if he's wr 30.
PPG is also a skewed stat. Saying a guy who scored 17 ppg over 12 games is more valuable than a guy who scored 16 ppg over 17 games is crazy. Availability should be taken into account especially in dynasty where it's much more difficult to replace a starter
I got Achane, Laporta and Rice in the 2nd rd last year so.......
I feel like anyone expecting a top 24 finish for your second round pick has to high of expectations. When I use my 2nds I hope for flex plays. Top 30-45 finishes. Achane, Jayden Reed, Rice, Josh Downs fit that mold in last years class alone. Still a gamble but so is anyone in fantasy
Exactly, couldn’t agree more
LaPorta was a home run for me last year in the second round.
You hit the lotto there
I think the expectation needs to be adjusted across dynasty league managers. If a 2nd round pick becomes a solid flex play, that should be a win. Claypool was a top 24 wr his rookie year for fantasy and was absolutely starting in lineups. Sure he ended up worth nothing, but I'm sure he helped people win games that year.
The guy that drafted Claypool in my league won that year. I remember claypool being a big difference maker for him too
And many of the non-hits have actually increased in value since being a 2nd rounder. A pick isn’t worth nothing if you can sell the player for more than you got him for…
There are so many players in the red across their entire careers who, if you chose the right time, you could have sold them for a 1st or at least get the 2nd back
The problem is your parameters. Expecting elite top 12 talent out of upside 2nd round picks is unrealistic. 20/36 (55.55%) of all of these players hit at least 10PPG in at least one season. If a 2nd round guy can be a solid flex play for a least a season or two with the upside to turn into a Pittman, Higgins, or Aiyuk that's not a wasted pick.
🎓
Pittman Jr, Aiyuk and Tee all 2nd rounders in a single class how is that lighting picks on fire? I would be ecstatic if my 2nd this year turned into that kind of value. Only way I’m trading 2nds is if I’m a contender.
Would love to see this with ppg rather than top 12/24 finishes. For instance, Michael Pittman averaged 14.0 ppg in Year 2 and considered a fail and 13.5 in year 3 but that was a fair hit. I have lower expectations for second round guys so judging them the same way of course is going to look awful.
Why is a guy playing less games more of a difference maker for your team than a guy playing more but averaging 1 pt less? I’d rather have 16 across a whole season than 17 while dealing with missed games and subsequent game time decisions.
Is this fot Start 7?
You should do whether they increase in dynasty value after they are drafted. Red for decrease from ADP, green for increase. I think you will see more green than these charts, and the information will be more useful.
So what should the plan be with seconds, trade for established talent? Trade in packages for firsts?
Interesting! Makes me feel good about adding 2.06 + 2.12 to 1.06 to move up to 1.03 in 12 team SF TEP.
On KTC the 2.01 to 2.12 has a value range of ~ 2775 to 4051. Which equates to about:
QB 23-31
RB 14-36
WR 30-57
TE 10-19
So which of these assets should we sell a 2nd round pick for?
didn't agree with the video but some of the RBs (Montgomery, Henry, Jones, Rhamondre) are great deals for a contender with a 2nd
So what you’re saying is to reach on the second round guys with my first round picks so they can be difference makers. Say less, I got u.
Galaxy brain move
I’m curious to see the data for first round rookie drafts and how much higher the hit rate is
I made a deal the other day, sent the 2.03 2.05 and Derius Davis for the 1.10 in a 14 team 1 qb league. I free up roster spots and get the best asset (I’m defending champ) and he gets more assets to help build his team (he just took over this asset starved orphan. He has Lamar and then his second best player according to KTC is Jaylen Warren if that tells you how asset starved his roster is. He has 4 players valued over 2000 on KYC….)
My second round picks in the last two years in my 1 QB league have been Rachaad White
Josh Downs
CJ Stroud
Laporta
My 3rds have been
Jayden Reed
Puka
They have value if you know how to draft rookies walking into open roles on good teams
can you do this vid again w w "trade value" as the parameter? would keep injured players in, would also showcase other factors that arent in "output" as what you want is trade value in the off season, not ouput
I think a top-30 or top-36 season for WRs should be accounted for as a "Fair Hit"...still wouldn't push these 2nd Round picks over the 50% threshold you'd like to see, but top-30/36 seasons for WRs taken in this range are a "win" imo.
Turn me upppp 🗣️🗣️
yeah, the failed metric really hinders the analysis. right now this is difference makers only, where as, bottom end of the tier guys have a lot of value to capture by sliding back in that tier/flat worp zone. not to say i dont agree, rather i wonder the impact of adding rb3/wr3 to the cateogory is, as its still better than zero
I would understand this take, except in thsi years draft class, WRs run so deep it’s kinda crazy
Expecting a top 12 finish from a rookie second is your first problem if you think seconds are worthless
In the investing world this is what is referred to as a "lagging indicator" current data outweighs lagging indicators
Full ppr 12 man superflex traded 2.05 for james cook, feeling pretty good about that
I’ve seen analysts with as many as 15 WRs in this class with 1st and 2nd round nfl draft grades. If there’s a year to have 2nds in dynasty it’s this year. Most other years sure I agree
So what you're saying is... it's better to trade your 2nd rounder for two 3rds and just take more shots on prospects?
Kinda kidding but it makes me think differently about trading future picks
Kinda depends on the year/depth of the class, but this year I think that's a solid move. 2nd/3rd rounders this year are all pretty similar talent and likelihood of success.
Only reason to go the other way, and get a 2nd for two 3rds is to consolidate roster spots, or to package the newly acquired 2nd to move up into the 1st.
Honestly this video just made me want to go buy 2nd rounders. Unbelievable value in the 2nd
Ive noticed a huge drop off in fantasy production from all players not named Mahomes in the last three years.
love nick! but i can’t even listen to this guy bro looks lost and confused
Will Levis
Sam LaPorta
Rashee Rice
Jayden Reed
All last years class… plenty of value
Feel like you should have 24 players for both wr in Rb . We start 2 in most leagues.
Amon Ra was a 4th round pick , he could have been taken in a third round of a dynasty draft
I haven't watched this yet, but the title makes me feel validated. I've been saying this since the combine.
These learners make no sense. Only top 12 is good for a WR? What? When every team fields an average of like 3.5 in Dynasty…?
I feel like KTC value would be a better correlation to a pick's worth - a lot of these players you could flip for a first but weren't "firm hits"
Hmmmm
Yeah they're worthless, please keep throwing them into trades, I definitely don't want them
Yeah but what you’re missing out on man is the AVERAGE second round pick misses. I’m obviously a more cerebral player and hit every time, right? 🥲