ATACMS Are In Ukraine. Will They Break Russian Logistics? [Mapped]
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- čas přidán 26. 10. 2023
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Production: Hubert Walas
Research & analysis: Tomasz Rydelek
Video production: Łukasz Szypulski
Voiceover: Hubert Walas
Translation: Adam Sajdak
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#russia #ukraine #war
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According to American intelligence, the losses of the militants of the Bandera neo-Nazi junta of Ukraine exceeded 500K people. Russians haven't destroyed so many Nazi bastards since the Second World War.
The latest decisions of the Ukrainian parliament have banned the Christian Church and allowed marriages between homosexuals. "Satan rules the ball there" ©
I'm a Ukrainian women living in Mariupol
Please excuse my pronunciation of ATACMS - I figured it out afterwards.😓
Honestly ATACM is probably the best acronym I have ever seen. I mean “attack ‘em” is a perfect summary of thief purpose.
You do awesome work thank you
Talking about pronunciations: It's Za-Po-Ri-zhya, not Za-Po-Ro-Shee-Ya!
That last i, that you overpronunciate so heavily isn't an actual vowel, just and indication, sthat the final zh has to be pronounced extra soft. The word has 4 syllables, not 5, and there is only one o in it.
It's alright, you don't have to have American accent.
I would not have thought you were doing it "wrong" unless you said 😂 just assumed it was your accent friend
Great analysis. This year has been a difficult one from a Ukrainian perspective. I wish them luck and a good winter, though it is hard to imagine how they'll deal with Russians that are even more entrenched next spring.
It's a shame for you to learn that the middle east is going to get all the funding from now on.
A fair amount of cluster munitions.
According to American intelligence, the losses of the militants of the Bandera neo-Nazi junta of Ukraine exceeded 500K people. Russians haven't destroyed so many Nazi bastards since the Second World War.
The latest decisions of the Ukrainian parliament have banned the Christian Church and allowed marriages between homosexuals. "Satan rules the ball there" ©
I'm a Ukrainian women living in Mariupol
More artillery and night attacks
The more ground they gain means the more concentrated the orcs become. More vulnerable to artillery and night shock assaults
Ukraine will be having some new really Nasty American, and other Western Weaponry, which will make an already very miserable war for the enemy, even more miserable.
There won't be any weaponry for the enemy. They'll have only lightly armed cannon-fodder and mines.
That will not stop the Ukrainians from recapturing their Nation...
The U.S. has alot of those cluster ATACMS lying around for decommisioning, I think I read somewhere in the ballpark of 500, so I'm sure they will get more soon, and maybe newer versions later.
Yeah there’s about 1,650 known ATACMS M39 block 1 missiles. And hopefully they’ll get the newer variants soon
Budanov said that even around 100 missiles (probably both cluster and unitary warhead) are not enough to do something serious to enemy. 500 is good but will usa give all of them after they rearm with prsm? Do they have cluster prsm or other analogue?
Unlikely. At some point the US needs to think of other theatres.
Europe needs to step up. None of them are increasing defense spending appropriately.
@@timmilder8313
In the wake of Russia's Invasion, European NATO countries are now commitment to the 2% minimum, several actually go beyond that.
@@tfdsuikpUS policy is not to use DPICM any more. Not precise enough.
Bear in mind this is the nation that killed a guy with a fucking _sword missile_ to avoid collateral damage.
We all thought the anime missile would be invented by Japan but... we were wrong.
The whole point of GLSDB is that -- while easier to intercept than ATACMS -- they are cheap, and _plentiful_ ... hopefully the plentiful part comes through.
considering that the key component is a small bomb and a rocket motor they should be pretty easy to scale up production.
Yes..... Perun recently had a more in depth look at this "dumb" vs "percision" versions of the munitions system.
@@dominuslogik484 but why it takes so long to produce it and ship Ukraine? Only in winter of 23-24
@tfdsuikp Simply because the slower allies ramp up, the more room they leave in the hypothetical piggy bank to maintain deterrent against other nations, and also to deter Russia escalating the war even further. For example, they can state that the moment a nuclear power station gets bombed, Ukraine gets a voucher for a 12,000% tech sharing unlock bonus from US lasting 4-6 weeks.
Also, sometimes Dragons be Rapid as fuck.
@@tfdsuikp It's supposed to use motors from rockets about to be decommissioned because the warhead was a cluster munition. This could mean:
1) the motors themselves are having the fuel re-cast to get rid of creep and age cracks in the solid fuel grain.
2) there could be a reconsideration in sending cluster munitions deemed "obsolete" so the rockets have to be built from scratch
TLDR; Yes.
- First ATACMS strike: -21 helo
- Second ATACMS strike -3 S-400
- Third ATACMS strike: *will be edited in the future, when it happend*
Unironically believing those claims
@@TheMythOfTheThickSixlol Russian bot
7:30 "civilian" contractors - they part of russian army logistic on enemy territory? not civilians...
I bet you think that killing Civilians is okay as you are killing future recruits
Keep up the good work.
Awesome analysis, thank you. I might be missing something, but it's hard to see a Russian use of ballistic missiles on the Ukrainian hinterland as an escalation; they've been doing that for so long. I wish we had provided ATACMS earlier. Those bridges need to go. Thanks for the discussion of the munitions and the effect on the helicopter bases and bridges, that was really interesting.
war will come to your land, you have angered the Russian people
The Ukrainian Nazis are losing. Keep coping NATO Nazi.
I agree. Russia has already been launching missiles all over Ukraine since the start of the war. There is no risk of escalation. If Russia had the supply they'd already be using it and if they get more from Iran they'll use them regardless of what Ukraine does.
А мы в России ждём не дождёмся, когда наше правительство примет решение на уничтожение сша
Some arguments ive heard is that, the reason they are now getting all these long range systems, is because they have lost too many men, and can no longer sustain an offensive
The best overall analysis of the situation to date. Many questions were answered that the media assumes everyone knows. Wishing Ukraine forces the best !
Slava Ukraini.
According to American intelligence, the losses of the militants of the Bandera neo-Nazi junta of Ukraine exceeded 500K people. Russians haven't destroyed so many Nazi bastards since the Second World War.
The latest decisions of the Ukrainian parliament have banned the Christian Church and allowed marriages between homosexuals. "Satan rules the ball there" ©
I'm a Ukrainian women living in Mariupol
@@stefanschleps8758According to American intelligence, the losses of the militants of the Bandera neo-Nazi junta of Ukraine exceeded 500K people. Russians haven't destroyed so many Nazi bastards since the Second World War.
The latest decisions of the Ukrainian parliament have banned the Christian Church and allowed marriages between homosexuals. "Satan rules the ball there" ©
I'm a Ukrainian women living in Mariupol
@@stefanschleps8758 Slava rusiji
Excellent “big picture”view. It really helped me put things in perspective. I watch a few daily shows about the Ukraine war and sometimes get lost in the details. This really clarified things.
These mapped videos are getting better
I watch a lot of different channels about the Ukraine War (Dennis, Artur, Georgie, Combat Vet, That Russian Dude, the Professor, etc.) but this is my first time watching this channel and I got to say it is very good. It did an excellent job of giving the “big picture” perspective.
The public needs more info on whether Ukraine made any progress in domestic production of ammunition, in particular artillery shells. I sure hope Ukraine can reduce its reliability on drip aid that may subside over time.
Yes, although even here in Ukraine we don't know much about it, except for the statements of our officials that we are increasing our own production. I think it would be a bad idea to give more details.
@@just_fake_q I understand it's an important war secret, but do you believe Ukraine is capable of producing enough shells now? And can those places be protected from Russian air strikes? Thanks
@@fedorbutochnikow5312
I don't think we can cover all our needs, but if we can produce at least 1/6 of what we need, it will be very useful. As for protection against missiles, I see two ways: either cover production with Patriot/SampT/other systems that shoot down ballistic missiles, but we don't have enough of them. Or use underground bunkers, which were built a lot during the USSR (remember the bunkers of Azovstal), but I don't know how equipped they are for such production.
@@just_fake_q I also hope there is a progressive development of indigenous weapon systems in Ukraine, to cut on expensive equipment imports.
Great show. Clear and informative.
NATO Nazi propaganda.
Fantastic as always
More NATO Nazi propaganda as usual.
Hubert you are a go-to for Ukraine insights
Excellent analysis and greatly appreciated. 👍👏😀👌
Thank you. Very thorough report as usual.
already 2 atacms destroyed, russians learned how intercept it
Intercepted with the target ahahah they took phptos of the spent rocket. Like Tochka systems the tail detaches on release and falls to the ground.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD hahahahahahaha your ukrain will lose.
@@ninjaa99ninjaa63why did Russia lose so much ground?
@@major_kukri2430 first time they lost near kiev and kharikiv, but now ukrainians losing more than russian. Ukrainian 1M+ westren 200k legioniers vs russian 280k!
@ninjaa99ninjaa63 you think I actually believe those made-up stats?
A good, fair and balanced analysis. Who knows what the future will bring.
Best snalysis I've heard - thanks
Excellent analysis as always
A clear and beautifully presented video
Fantastic video as always!
Excellent summary
Great channel. Love the background music
16:18 I think there's a mistake there: UN arms embargo on Tehran ended on October 18 2020 (according to the pictured article), not October 18 2023.
Article is written on October 18 2020 but hes talking about the date of expire of embargo. Could be, that article is talking about the date of expiration in future..still dont know I could be wrong here.
thnxs for the report
Thank you
It's nice to see it only took the Russians almost 2yrs to learn basic logistics and adaptation. What an impressive Military Force.
What a comment.. By following your logic, US never managed to learn anything in Afghanistan for over 20 years, and in the end they lost to "savages"? xD
@@startledhamster and by following your logic, that also means that Russia didn't learn anything from over 10 years in Afghanistan, and in the end they lost to the same goat farmers... 🤡
Strange that "my logic" is somehow tied to a totally different conflict, in another part of the world. Projecting?
Russia's dependence on rail lines, which are a different gauge than the rest of the world, are their greatest weakness, and have been for decades. The fact they haven't overcome this problem is pathetic.@@startledhamster
If you want my logic on Afghanistan, I would say that the problem wasn't learning, it was having a goal. It was an unwinnable war from the start, and they just refused to accept it.
They should have been able to build a regime that didn't crumble in a few days, after 20yrs of work. Lets be honest. And don't even ask me about the withrawal.@@startledhamster
lol, not to mention , this kind of of strategy of rail logistics landwar in ukraine is the kind of war the soviet union and russia has been prepared on fighting and supplying for 100 years
Very thorough analysis
well explained thank you
A fair and balanced analysis
outstanding
Thanks
Very informative video. I hear so many acronyms and weapons in the news, but I never know what any of it means
Yes, we are so hopeful.
ATACAMS in Ukraine are end of life ordnance, the cost saving to the US of sending these to Ukraine then replacing with the latest model creating US jobs cannot be underestimated as it proves out the storage as well as the success of the stored item, the US can save millions by sending ordnance to Ukraine
Good understanding.......
Yes, I am a Ground News subscriber.
At this stage, it is unwise to measure Ukrainian military success purely in terms of occupied land.
Ukraine’s failure to break through the front was apparent within the first two or three weeks of their Summer counter offensive. The authorities, from Zelensky on down, said as much and announced their change of strategy soon after. I don’t believe Ukraine intends to penetrate the front lines in an overwhelming attack for now. They are now breaking down the Russian army’s logistics and will to fight, whilst feinting attacks up and down the front lines to prevent Russia from gaining any rest or concentration of resources.
Ukraine is picking its own battles and slowly grinding the Russians down. At some point, they will make a sudden, unpredicted breakthrough, when none of us expect it.
Needs more upvotes, because This.
And russia is not doing the same? Besides the clock is ticking for ukraine.
@@markobucevic8991 : Ticking for Putin, son.
@@ashroskell care to explain? Ukraine is literally running out of people for the war. Ukraines pop dropped bellow 23mil out of 40+. Russias economy is growing aswell. Being one of top ten world economies and the most resource rich nation too.
@@markobucevic8991 : No point explaining, as your rhetoric shows you’re clearly not interested in the reality. Wait and see, kid.
The atacms block 1 are the only version that contain cluster munitions. That should be pointed out as unlike Himars, they can't send barages of them at one target and you can't take out airfields of planes and it's pretty difficult to destroy ammo depots with a single large rocket.
They should be saved for bases and bridges.
Could be, depends of smart use...as always
Cheers
Response is important but not as much as the impact of been further in their action radius witch reduce their time over the front.
The model(M39) of ATACMS with lower range is not "lower range" because it's older. It has triple the payload of the longer range one(M39A1), which was produced at the same time from 1998. MGM-140(M39) has it's uses as Ukraine has demonstrated. The other models have a lot less payload to get the range. You can say that it was the original specs one. Further it is only speculation that Ukraine only received MGM-140(M39) and that speculation has not been confirmed neither by the USA, nor by Ukraine. That's just what is know that they used so far.
Let's see
Incredibly useful:
Well produced videos. More wide-ranging content. Very factual...less bloviating or blatant, partisan opinion. And most important...no showing video clips featuring US wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, the Camp Pendleton Marine training base replete w/ palm trees & sandy beaches, Black servicemen as UKR troops, or constantly re-running the same video clips from a year and a half ago. And for that, I thank you!
Love your channel, content and excellent coverage, but how about you cover some "good times" and give us a break? :P
do you like to live in a safe space, or do you prefer to be actually informed?
I'm sorry, but your rude comment has forced be to explain what sarcasm is, and to suggest you get a sense of humor.@@bobcprimus
@@yabutmaybenot.6433 sarcasm or not, you seem easily triggered...
Yeah, soon or one day he would do that
I wasn't the one who was rude for no reason. Maybe try treating others with a modicum of respect, before you know them.@@bobcprimus
Thank You for the update 💙💛 👍
Great and thank you for your hard work and presentation 👍
Block 1 doesnt have GPS. Basically a dinosaur in the tech realm, tho, will be useful in a setting choked with EW capabilities.
Does the legend respond
It’s not a wonder weapon. It won’t change the outcome
FAB 9000 will have to be used to drive the border back a few hundred more miles and a new border established.
Will iran hand over ballistic missiles when there's a risk of all out war in the middle east ..
They'll do anything to knock the US down a peg or two.
The timing is absolutely horrendous, though, with the Iranian government being very unpopular among its people.
Whether they do so will not take into consideration the middle east. Iran will not do anything because israelis have infiltrated the governments of USA, Europe and Russia. Iran can't stand against them. Furthermore, USA showed lack of interest and support for Ukraine, this is demonstrated if we compare USA's response to a small incursion in the middle east and the full scale war in Europe, Ukraine more specifically.
Hint for Ukraine power relays in Russia work of components made in West, Taiwan and South Korea,
Are the Ukrainians going position ATACMS launchers right on the contact line with Russian forces? The video seems to assume this when discussing the missile ranges.
Keep on pushing, Ukraine!
The russians are pushing. The Ukraine has lost Initiative and is in the defence.
good papi
They will, first and foremost, break fascist air defences. Since they're ballistic missiles, and fascists don't have any systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, unlike SAMP-T and Patriot PAC-3.
What fascist? Kid, wake up, this isn't a video game. Russians are ex-soviets who still fly the soviet flag and are trying to rebuild their soviet communist empire, nothing fascist about it. In fact, actual fascists fought against this evil.
what is the air defence shooting down? Ukrainian air force in shambles no?
Saying it’s going to take several years for Russia to lay down railway track is probably the dumbest thing I heard in the video. Very doubtful it will take Russia more than a year at max.
During an active sabotage and artillery campaign against it? Changes the equation significantly.
@@Muljinn I didn’t say it wouldn’t be sabotaged along the way but to claim it will “take several years” to construct only a several hundred kilometer railway track is laughable. I’ll eat dirt if I’m wrong but not on this lol.
You’ve missed what was achieved by 🇺🇦 in terms of attriting🇷🇺 is many, many areas. This fact will be visible later. 🇷🇺 is using private contractors as they want the rail forces fighting.
As hard as it is to comprehend, they've used military doctors as regular infantry in some cases.
Not really depends how much they give them .if a few missiles then is useless
I’ve heard very little about what kind of partisan warfare is going on in occupied territories. Are they sabotaging railroads, doing hit and run attacks, etc.? A video about this facet would be appreciated.
Winning is relative in a war of Attrition. DA?
Given the lack of availability it's unlikely we'll see ATACMS used to interdict logistical routes aside from very large munitions depots. Rail is easily repairable and ATACMS would be a huge opportunity cost to strike a target that in theory could be repaired in a matter of days or potentially even hours. As for bridges, that's entirely possible, but Ukraine only has approximately 7-8 ATACMS left from the rumoured 20 they had delivered, it's unlikely we'll see them used to strike bridges aside from Kerch given the option of workarounds. That and the Russian willingness to continue repairing and devoting resources to protecting the Kerch bridge makes a strike here kind of pointless. Ukraine has had practically no progress in their counter offensive, striking Kerch in the short to medium timeframe wouldn't really impact the outcome of these operations given the losses they've sustained in the south.
What's more likely is that ATACMS will be reserved for tactically significant targets of opportunity, Ukraine struck the helicopters at Berdiansk and Luhansk not because an individual helicopter was a good target, but rather because Russia had lazily grouped them all together offering the opportunity to strike a huge portion of their fast response helicopter fleet with very little ordinance.
It's unlikely Russia will entirely move their helicopters out of ATACMS range, rather they're more likely to just implement mitigation techniques, hangars, dispersal etc. If they simply spread their targets out to necessitate the use of a single ATACMS per target then the cost of striking these targets will no longer be appetising for Ukraine, and if it is then a single helicopter loss is likely a net neutral trade between capabilities of both parties.
As for parallels between M31 and Block1 ATACMS, it remains to be seen what mitigation techniques Russia will implement and it's worth noting here that M31 had an extremely high availability compared to ATACMS, Ukraine has to conserve their munitions and given the fickle nature of foreign support at this stage it's highly unlikely we see them throw ATACMS around in the same way they did M31.
👍
Nice report lots of interesting thoughts here ...
However i forsee Iran having more pressing uses for its Ballistic missiles than sell them to Russia 😂
And although that will upset the Russians the resulting 500$ a barrel oil will compensat
Ukraine has been winning for 18 months now - well done!!!
Indirect fire weapons are good for interdiction but they cannot capture ground. The unfortunate job of capturing ground has to be done by the infantry troops.
Brits seem to be better at naming stuff.
I like how they name ships in their navy way better than the boring names/states in US navy. Brits have ships like HMS Vengeance or HMS Ambush or the freaking HMS DRAGON. How scary is that when compared to something with a whitebread name like USS Nebraska? (although the Nebraska is a much more terrifying machine because of the SLBM's)
Could be that Israel/US will take care of the Iranian missile factories.
Sorry no - Escalation you know.
So has Ukraine run out of Javelins?
Good luck, Ukraine.
I don't get it if your enemy insists on send hos men and armor into the teeth of your artillery you are obliged to let him a brigade lost in 3 weeks yes you hold your attack and save as many men as possible all those apvs and tanks artillery and radar will save thousands of your troops in the long run
Great video, well commented. Keep it up. Slava Ukraine!
It's fun to listen to optimistic people pretend that Ukraine can win back the areas they didn't want in the first place.
Its simple. Be able to hit your enemy at a range where they can't hit you back. Its ALL about the range.
Wexcellent
Ukraine winning in CZcams 😂😂😂😂 slava Russia
Putin has allowed Russian forces to mobilize FAB 5000. A ballistic missile that can strike anywhere in Ukraine. Everything is messed up for two kilometers from the blast point. Closies only counts in FAB 5000 and TOS-2. The Australians want to play with horseshoes.
20 missiles…
this month.. the US is likely waiting for the production lines of their new next generation missile to begin before they start delivering any large numbers of their stockpile of older missiles. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_Strike_Missile
Слава Україні. Дякую за вашу роботу.
Short answer - NO
No doubt, ATACMS will greatly contribute to giving Ukraine the qualitative edge they need against russian quantity.
What's hard to understand is the procrastination to deliver them.
It's no different than the soviets providing arms and training to North Vietnam or North Korea to use them as proxies against the US.
If memory serves, the US didn't use that as an excuse to retaliate with nuclear attacks.
USA showed lack of interest in helping Ukraine win. Didn't send troops to deter Russia invading, didn't honor the security guarantees USA gave to Ukraine when Ukraine gave up their nukes, only drip-feeding token amounts of support (it may seem like they send a lot but war is expensive and this isn't some dwarf country either), withholding game changers like f16, atacms, not implementing a no-fly zone etc.
Can't the embargo on Iran just be renewed ? Afaik their regime hasn't improved so why would we allow them to trade again ?
"allow them to trade?" You can't embargo a country's trade with a trade partner who doesn't recognize the embargo.
@@Grak70 Obviously but then why do they wait for it to expire and don't just sell the missiles now ?
@@Creadeyh because Russia has a permanent seat on the UN security council and can veto any further embargo sanctioned by the UN. Any embargoes that follow the current one will be unilateral actions by the US and its allies only. Russia supported (or at least didn’t oppose) the prior embargo. Now they clearly need what they didn’t need before. Waiting for the UN measures to expire gives Russia’s actions international legitimacy.
@@Grak70 ah I see thanks
@@Creadeyh no problem. Sorry, I think I was also not thinking clearly about it when I replied! Took me a minute for my brain to catch up my with own statement lol
ATACMS -> ATAC-MS -> Attack 'ems
Game changer number 11 lols
Game has changed multiple times. Compare Russian soldiers in day 1 to the hobos in camoby day 600.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD so nato money and nato weapons are being defeated by hobos.... nice
@@joshuamitchell1733hobos fighting with shovels and their missiles equipped with washing machine chips.
@@joshuamitchell1733 NATO spends Dollar/Euro, Russia spends blood.
Do you realize that you're glorifying Russia as a nation killing its own people for the sake of robbing us of money? Maybe they should make videogames and movies, then we'd give them the money. Save lives, keep the money.
They'd rather fight us by losing their lives so our taxes are a few cents higher? Uhhhh.
Your fucking funny!
Its a succes as long as russia is on the defensive
A lot of game changer items.. yea 😂
22
Russia intercept all ATACAMS
Until now it has all been simple maths.
This war needs to end via diplomats. At this point everyone can see that this a stalemate neither side can win.
The West is only winning, especially USA. Russia losing personnel and equipment. Obviously USA will like this to lessen a direct threat from a Russian-US war
Wars dont end cuz 'neither side can win'. If anything the west has a stark interest in seeing Russia bleed but not too much to risk an actual nuclear blackmail.
Russia has massive helicopter manufacturing facilities. All factories in Russia are going 24/7, contracts for weapons construction have went out all over the world. Russia is making a fortune from arms sales globally. Tens of thousands of people are back to work.
Wow Very Good. Subscribed.
Cda
Dude is still waiting for Ukraine offensive 😂