Football betting tips | How do you predict a draw in football match?
Vložit
- čas přidán 27. 05. 2024
- Lay the draw is a popular Betfair trading strategy. But curiously sometimes the best way to thinking about which matches to trade with this strategy is to predict matches where it wouldn't work!
In this video, we explore how to predict a draw and it's something I refined way back in the early 90's as I pursued my dream of winning the football pools.
To do that I had to predict eight out of ten football matches as a draw and that's exactly what I achieved using the methods we mention in this video and some optimal covering.
Predicting a draw can be really helpful when you are working other Betfair trading strategies as well or just a plain old traditional betting strategy.
So whichever you choose to use it, watch this video and learn how I would recommend you predict a draw in a football match. For related videos check out other football content on the channel where I go into much more depth about forecasting goals.
Enjoy!
#football #bettingtips #draw - Sport
Brilliant thanks Peter. Its very hard to find genuine "guru's" out there and having met you in person and done one of your courses I can totally trust your findings and guidance.👍
love your series of videos on disecting football markets, you explain it in a clear understandable manner, and diagrams color coding is great. I bought an a racing post publication book Kevin Pullein on soccer metrics, but if was jargon heavy/ quite maths formulaic so not a good read!
Thank you Peter!
I am horrible at trading, but you make everything look laughably simple.
I was actually laughing when you explained the correlation between number of goals and a draw probability.
Where and how do you keep all of your data?
Helllo Peter , would love to hear your views on the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of draw bias / lack of draw bias ... if we take the example of an opening goal by the home team in the Premier League in the 0-10 time band and 1-0 at 11 minutes , last , 290 games only 19/290 ended 1-1 ( 6.55% ) and 106/290 went 1-1 ... so of the 106 that went 1-1 only 19/106 ended 1-1 .... so this brings you to the next question which is as follows , if a team is winning 1-0 , how likely are they to hold onto their + 1 goal advantage ( survival analysis ) ? and if the game goes 1-1 , how likely given the time of the opening goal and the time of the 2nd goal will it end a draw ?
Good video and well explained. This makes a lot of sense and will feature in my thinking on predicting draw situations and the likelihood of goals. Very relevant video to the Scotland Lith game. Lateish away goal, home team, low scoring. Makes sense. Cheers Peter, please build on this video stats analysis, great insight and helpful. Cheers.
I have a simpler strategy for finding a draw. Ask yourself 4 questions:
1)Would both teams be happy with a draw?
2)Are the teams evenly matched?
3)Is the price on under 2.5 goals below 1.6?
4)Do both teams average less than 1 goal per game over their last 10 games?
If the awnser to all these questions is yes than I would probably put the game on my shortlist for a potential draw.
Previous meets of teams in same season can give an opinion but if the meets are not on same season,it doesnt give any sense. Most of the people check for previous matches between teams but there s no point on this,it s only waste of time. Teams re facing each other on 2019,people try to predict something buy checking records of previous matches from 2010,11,... etc.
Hey Peter, aside from recording your screen whilst trading, how else do you collect horse racing data? I actually wrote some software a while back that could be re-purposed for logging racing data, is there something that already does the job very well?
It's worth collecting all data, even if you don't use it. You can always return to it.
betangeltv can you be of help to me please. Am from Kenya and I would love to predict all the matches correctly. its 13 matches being played for a jackpot of 210,000$ if you get all 13 correctly. i will appreciate any help
Peter, I am watching your videos with great interest but it's hard to know in what order to watch them. Could you serially number them in their titles so that they can be watched in chronological order? Would be a great help.
We are producing a separate site to do exactly this. We will announce when ready.
Is there anywhere I can find these data for football?
Hi Peter, How are these numbers in the year 2020?
Still valid, subject to circumstances. For example matches playing behind closed doors are going to influence the strength of the away team at the moment.
Time to bite the bullet,your videos are succinct and to the point.Keep them coming.Looking to trade my bets.
Very interested in trading 0-0,1-0,0-1,1-1,2-0 in games that have a probability of 2 goals and less.Significant Home Bias probability
Also trading games that have a high probability of 3 goals or more2-0,1-1,2-1,1-2 ,3-0.Again with high home Bias probability.
Will be subscribing on a longer term basis to Bet Angel.
Thankyou for sharing greatly appreciated..........on a lighter note Southampton 2 Everton 0 Happy Days
Thanks for your comment. Happy days indeed, Saints winning at home is something to celebrate after last year.
Draw for this week
Hey hi how can I contact you directly i want to show you something I'm trying to win a pre selected ticket and I always get 10 correct out of 17 matchs I always miss 7 how can you help me get those 7
I have an updated version of this video out soon. But as with all forecasting you will get some wrong as you can't say which ones are definatly going to end in a draw, only the ones that are more likely.
You may want to watch this video: -
czcams.com/video/3-IzYv3mJ4g/video.html
Excel or SQL for your dataset?
I do a lot of stuff in Excel, but I've so much data I tend to use databases to sort and extract information.
If you can't factor in what the home team had for breakfast - all bets are off!
The reason home teams had a bigger advantage years ago is because it took longer to travel.
I've no doubt home advantage due to this was higher many years ago.
Accrington Stanley... who are they!!?!?
Hope you drank your milk.
Accrington Stanley Football Club is a professional association football club based in Accrington, Lancashire, England. The club competes in League One, the third tier of the English football league system. Wikipedia
I don't believe in history... to days match will create a new record that u will don't follow...u can depends on past record only 20% consideration..
Wil the sun rise tomorrow?
Too much talk and don t know what is the point of stradegy
This isn't a strategy, it's telling you how and when a draw is more likely to occur.
betangeltv Too much talking for nothing. Stay strong 😉👍🏻
Well if you didnt get anything from this video, then you better dont get into serious betting, not a sport for you..
Peter, Accrington Stanley was not founded until 1968!!!
It looks like the first entry I have is Accrington F.C., 15/12/1888 - Not Accrington Stanley
The original Accrington Stanley was founded in 1891.
Accrington Stanley? Who the hell are they?
Exacrly!
Why you telling us, just bet and make money......
I do and have been for nearly 20 years.
@ Dota Centrelink, because he is tired of winning so he wants to help people like you win and get of Centrelink.
Brilliant thanks Peter. Its very hard to find genuine "guru's" out there and having met you in person and done one of your courses I can totally trust your findings and guidance.👍