Russia Takes Avdiivka. Ukraine Attacks RU Refineries [Mapped]
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- čas přidán 16. 03. 2024
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Production: Hubert Walas
Research & analysis: Rochan Consulting
Editing: Hubert Walas
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#russia #ukraine
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By far my favourite creator, to get this kind of information, keep up the great work!
Hi
Hello
But you delete comments if you don't like them!
Greetings from Kharkiv! Thanks for detailed report.
Are you under or near Russian controlled territories?
@@Omer1996E.C Well, as you can see on the map, Kharkiv itself is located not to far from Russia`s borders. So yeah, kinda not too far away. Though i lived most of my life in Donetsk, which is occupied by russians since 2014.
@olgierdvoneverec i know this is too many questions, but you're the first Ukrainian to reply to me actually, so if you like to answer
Do you want to get out? can you get out if you want? If you know, Are Russians too inhumane if you've seen (like how Israel treats the "others"), or are they just annoying soldiers? Are Russian controlled territories sieged or can they import food? And how about the place you're in rn
I wanted to know it from a local if you don't mind
@@Omer1996E.C ruzzians are more like hamas, I guess
So Russians were oppressed by Ukraine for tens of years? That's absolutely unbelievable
I love the background
Please dont change it
Don't confuse "advance" for "offensive".
Don't confuse the "departure' of Nuland for a "retirement" especially as China declares willingness to attack the US if Russia is attacked by NATO. The strikes by Ukraine recently were clearly quarterbacked by NATO tech & "volunteers". Putin may have secured China backing to act more offensively and crucially critical strikes rather than the previous seeking to pressure Ukraine into a deal of neutrality. The hardliners would certainly got public sympathy after the infrastructure strikes. The only real winners are BlackRock et al and the $400 billion reconstruction contracts (should Ukraine win - if they don't they're all £ucked)
Yes Ukraine conducted offensives by retreating 😂
Don't confuse Nuland's "resignation" for "career change"😅
@@pavelimani Russians are masters of retreating. Only they can abandoned thousands of kilometrs and called it a feint
@@pavelimanigood ruzzian bot
GREAT episode!!!
Good work as always. Thank you.
Thank you for the Update, hard to find good ones in last few months.
Try reporting from Ukraine, he isn't bias
Amazing content, thank you for your hard work.
I appreciate your channel so much as your conside, straightforward and helpful breakdown of things help me have a better understanding of geopolitical issues and what is happening in the world. Thank you.
Concise
Support-Comment for good work.
Thank you for the report.
Your report is reminiscent of the novel 1984 announcements. Not complaining it's just spooky
Thanks!
Thank you!.❤
The Ukrainian military is fighting really well and well trained. The Russian military is advancing slowly even without NATO supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Russia has the numbers.
More than 120 million in population
The Russians can afford to play the slow game and grind Ukraine’s numbers down until they run out of men.
We've seen which side has the better soldiers when both have ammo.
It's not Russia
The Russian military is fighting very well even though that there are over 30 countries sanctioning Russia and supplying Ukraine. It's the other way around buddy
@@sankss1684którzy unikają armii jak tylko mogą.
Excellent video as usual! Keep them coming. I would love to see an in-depth video about the refineries, with production statistics and other stuff like times/effort to fix them. I am starting to think that is how you actually put a break on the Russian offensives.
(For the algorithm)great video
excellent reporting. Well done.
Great analysis
Superb reporting
Great video, Hubert.
Apart from cherry picking which off battlefield factors will affect the outcome. That's how last summer's Ukrainian offensive gains turned into a Ukrainian rout without clear explanation.
@goodtimesbadtimes Can I ask for music used in video?
It is in the description of the video.
Music: Arcadia - Cody Martin
It is in the description of the video.
Music: Arcadia - Cody Martin
Greeting from Indonesia
great work
Stay fit for you & team
Aamiin
Concise, factual, and neutral. We need more videos like this.
Neutral? He is obviously UA biased, although he is more on the objective side compared to other CZcamsrs.
LOL! He's clearly a Ukrainian propagandist or just delusional. Ukraine has clearly lost and will lose even more. Even a big chunk of western elites backing this proxy war have come to realize this. This sounds like Nuland's parting hare-brained scheme.
@@roman949A sure way tell the bias is; civilian targets attacked vs temporary military installments attacked.
Seriously, if Russia wanted to kill a lot of civilians they'd have done what the US usually does.
@@roman949 He is Polish. Were you expecting him to simp for the fascist Putin regime? lol
Indeed. CZcams is so awash with propaganda channels it isn’t funny.
A great and non biased update. Thank you, and keep up the great work.
Dont confuse the vision of frontline soldiers with a sober overall perspective! War is hell, regardless how well you are supported. While that aspect was deteriotating due to ammunition shortages and some russian luck near Avdiivka.
Ukrainian fortifications are better then people think. And now, after two weeks of doomtales, some press agences start to acknowledge that. The new defense line west of Avdiivka managed to hold for 2 weeks now, signaling the ability to consolidate it.
So what about the Ukrainian fortifications, will they be adequate? In strict comparison - I think the Russian Surovikin line is superior. Wich is partly simply because they had more time to prepare and they had more reasons to dig in.
Secondly, the quality of defense lines should also be compared with their intented purpose, as well the abilities of the enemy to attack the specific zones of defensive lines.
Its Ukraine’s turn to dig in, we all can agree on such. And so far, they seem to prove adequate to stop or slow down the Russian advance. Wich brings me to the next aspect.
You can have the best fortresses in the world, but you need both manpower and ammunition to maximize its potential. Russia had both during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Still, Ukraine was able to penetrate those lines in a determined attrition campaign. On reverse, Russians are not skilled or refined enough to overcome fierce opposition - even in basic defensive positions.
About purposes of fortresses - its not always about stopping. Avdiivka was meant to stop Russians, but failed due to lack of artillery shells - and some Russian luck. Raw firepower wasnt enough.
Even then, Avdiivka was hell for Russians and slowed them down big time. In same perspective, Ukrainian defenses build and under construction will slow down the pace of the Russian advance.
Brings me to the point of buying time, as applied to the counteroffensive: Ukraine’s new approach worked, but it was way too slow and required too much time and ammunition.
So yes: Ukrainian defenses are mostly adequate to serve their purpose. They are not perfect neither invincible, but thats not the pretention or goal. They turn the game into a grinding attrition war.
I disagree with some visions to favor NATO standards, wich proved wrong. Neither I think a WW1 stalemate is inevitable. By the way, even that war ended with a victorious party.
This is a new type of warfare in a specific Ukrainian setting.
So AFU has to develop and trust their own rules of combat, both tactical and in strategic perspective. Thats why both conservative (Zalushny) and agressive (Syrsky) approaches have their use. Those both have their own merits and need to be applied.
While the price is high, I think is plausible to conclude time is mostly the ally of Ukraine in the long term - no matter what it takes. Its not a 100% matter. The edge is subtle but promising.
Russian luck! LOL! Ukraine has already lost, genius. Even the west is beginning to figure that out. The paltry Ukrainian "defense lines" are sporadic and random and irrelevant. They haven't bought much time and more importantly the Russian strategy of aggressive attrition not only continues to work, the numbers of Ukrainian losses have really increased and piled up in the last week due to the ill-conceived and p.r. based border raids near Belograd which is perfectly ok wth me given that some of those units are basically neo-Nazis. The other Ukraininas I can fell sorry for since they have such a stupid comedian as a leader, even more so with Zalushny gone.
>>> The edge is subtle but promising.
LOL! Delusional whistling in the dark. It's over except in terms of how much more territory Russia may take which is why Europeans are so panicky.
Ukrianians said they will start to build defenses 1 week before Avdiivka fell. What are you smoking?
@@attilamarics3374 your wife
@@cz1589 I doubt that. Sit boy.
👍
Słyszę polski akcent
He is Polish
Ja tez, jaki wstyd!
@@albertwolanski7688haha
żaden wstyd@@albertwolanski7688
You said that source of information is Financial Times and I almost started to believe you...
😮😮❤
It's unbelievable how the west finds it so difficult to help Ukraine. First of all on the political level, where it's the most black and white situation I've ever seen: Ukraine is on the right, russia is a major military threat to all of europeans, yet we're scared to "escalate" by... helping Ukraine defend themselves! It should be so obvious yet we got major russian assets like Scholz who for no reason whatsoever create so much opposition to actually helping Ukraine... And on the military level, it wouldn't cost much to boost domestic production of ammunitions, artillery shells and all that Ukraine needs for its military, yet two years into the conflict we're not doing almost anything. What's stopping us?? Are we really so morally decadent that we became indifferent towards ACTUAL anti-democratic enemies, is it all russian propaganda and infiltration, or is it just the normal course of democracies, to be slow at the start but then commit towards the end? Are we doomed to repeat the lesson of WW2?
In politics there are only interests. Even morality and ethics are tools that are used to achieve a goal.
Russia without Ukraine is not an empire. After Ukraine gained independence in the 1990s, Russia tried to regain it through politicians dependent on it. She resorted to poisoning the political rivals of their candidates for the president of Ukraine. When Ukrainians chose the "road to the west", Russia decided to use force to annex part of Ukraine (2014). I think the plan was broader, but the Russians did not expect self-organization of Ukrainian citizens. Now we have overtime.
The West is taking the same cynical actions. I'm Polish. Poland supports Ukraine because it knows that Russia is an existential threat to Poland. It helps because it's a proxy war. The US cynically tests its weapons and the Russians' weapons and learns how the Russians fight.
At the beginning, Germany wanted the war to end with Ukraine losing and did not help Ukraine much. Now, after losing revenues from the re-export of hydrocarbons from Russia and losing Russian markets, it wants to do business in arms.
Politics is amoral by definition, and great global politics is even more so.
Tough moment
Tough times for Ukraine. The Russian approach is like a constrictor, making small gains at high a cost to replaceable troops and keeping the pressure up throughout the front.
The Russians can replace theirs since they haven’t fully committed to the conflict. Ukraine on the other hand has used almost all of its manpower, manpower which can’t be replaced.
@@AmericanAdvancementthey still have under 25 left but it is not a lot of men
LOL! It's only Ukraininas that have had the high cost. Please don't tell me you believe Zelensky's 31 K number. Please. This blogger is propaganda joke.
@@IamdeaththedestroyerofWorldsit's okay their current average age is 40+
@@AmericanAdvancementumm they are fully committed to the conflict…
Not sure why you didn’t mention the key component that Ukraine lacks - artillery. Even if Ukraine mobilizes 500k, that’s just a temporary solution since ruzzia has 4x the population so you can’t just “outnumber” them. Not sure how Ukraine suppose to “win the war” when the west is not able to supply enough weapons even for defense
Because despite the doomer news, Ukraine is shredding the Russian army one day at time (Ratios of 3.12 as of 2023 using Oryx data). Infantry casualties for Russians are believed to be in excess of 6:1. Attritional war is not to Russia's advantage. It is very likely that Ukraine can sustain a war again Russia indefinitely solely on the excess military capacity of Europe. The question becomes who breaks first what are each countries limiting factors? Ukraine or Russia? My money is on Russia breaking first, the destruction of their oil industry marks a grim statement by Ukraine on how they want break Russia. 50% of the Russian economy is petro-oil.
What if Ukraine hires a 3rd party contractor that has access to the arms they need. That should add an additional layer of prevention to a full on conflict with NATO. If the contractor is attacked, it's not a NATO member and it would allow everyone who said they wouldn't send manpower to keep their promise. Additionally, the contractor could hire guys already experienced with the new equipment, to reduce the lead time.
Tho they are far away
@@ArmUkraine Not sure what you mean.
@@Jay-jq6bl it deleted my original comment for not really any reason
Russia executes mercenary prisoners of war... So yeah I don't think many would be willing. Russia has maneuvered law so that they consider foreign volunteers mercenaries
They already had PMC Mozzart and it didn't end well. To be fair it was only a few thousand troops, they'd need way more to make a difference
always good to get one of ur updates, thx for ur uploads. Sick tune as ever btw.
Long live Ukraine!
Slava Ukraini !
Wala Urine!
Another counteroffensive? 😂😂😂
This isn’t just a war for Ukraine, it is a war against Europe, yet it looks like Ukraine was abandoned. Europe, too afraid to provoke a Russia that was already provoked, assumed Ukraine could win a war with the bare minimum. Now Europe is surprised Ukraine is losing ground after a disastrous counteroffensive that racked up losses as Europe debated the necessity and morality of sending cluster ammunition, tanks, jets, and longer range missiles that could have been far more decisive if sent earlier. Minds might be changing, but it’s far too little too late. Meanwhile, the United States is experiencing some of its weakest leadership in decades under Biden and a critically gridlocked congress, with a high likelihood that Trump will return to power and cut aid to Ukraine virtually entirely. Ukraine had its chance, but its allies abandoned it out of fear, incompetence, indecision, and petty moralizing, and sacrificed that opportunity. Now Ukraine is on the slow crawl to defeat.
It's a war for American hegemony. China has made clear they would attack the US if Russia is attacked. In simple language that means the offensives and attacks on infrastructure that are quarterbacked by NATO could be a cassus belli if Putin gives in to hardliners frustrated Russia doesn't attack the systems of state of Ukraine rather than just military material.
One for the algorithms
Zelensky should stop fearing potentially unpopular decisions. If mobilization is necessary, then it should begin
According to Arestocivh, a lot of the already mobilized forces refuse to fight. What is mobilizing even more unwilling men going to achieve?
"I'm winning, help!" Zelenskystein, Stepan
@@RenanMendes-zd8hj I'm winning, said Russia, in the 3rd year of the war, losing 400000 people to capture half of Donbass.
@@MrKakibuy source: the guys who invented the Ghost of Kiev
@@RenanMendes-zd8hj The ghost of Kyiv at least had a chance to exist, unlike the parade in Kyiv after a 3 day victory.
Grim.
Hello
Hi
What the hell is Stormzy doing there?
Good video
What are u talking about there are barely any people living in the places u called civilian areas .these places are literally frontline areas
If the Ukranians don't mobilize, they need to cut a deal and stop asking for support. "22 months without rotation". How is that even possible? How can you sit by as your army is fighting non stop while you are at home?
algorithm
The thing is Ukraine can lose alot in the East. Yes it will be more territory to liberate but if they would only go to a command economy for total war like countries did in the world wars Kiev doesnt have the manpower.
7:23 The Russian claims that they have captured the whole first line of defense (Surovikin Line). Which means that the whole Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhye has now restarted to phase one
Ukraine could cancel the passports of all its nationals abroad that are not diplomatic personnel and demand their repatriation. That would solve their manpower problems, if Kiev were serious- and to date, they have shown that they are not.
You said Russia would collapse, what happened?
Great work as always ❤🫶🇺🇦🇬🇧
Lukoil VP was Epsteined
Western failure to aid Ukraine for victory is costing thousands of lives. Both Europe and USA have failed to live up to their values. This is the saddest part in modern history.
Untrained Russian soldier？Russian is not kidnapping people on the street
Just end it. Save lifes not that the is much to save.
Hi from Russia 🇷🇺
We will know what happens next in April.
After the Grand Solar Eclipse!
US republicans should have their accounts checked for Russian money.
US Republicans just don’t want to risk direct involvement due to the very real possibility of a nuclear exchange.
It's not money it's brainwashing.
Example-- Tucker Carlson
@@sankss1684 both
US democrats should have their banks accounts investigated for CCP monetary bribes.
Gavin Newsome
Eric Swallow
@@sankss1684I think you'll find that the promise of money makes one much more amenable to being brainwashed.
🇺🇦🦁💪
So this is a pro Ukraine channel 🤔
Why dodge the disastrous outcome of the cross border operations in Belgorod and kursk
They are still ongoing
And are Not ‘disastrous’
@@ArmUkraine They are. Ukraine lost lots of manpower and equipment and it only served to legitimize Putin and the SMO operation in the eyes of the Russian people.
@@mike7671lol no such thing happend. It only legitimized putins bluff.
@@mike7671 Still ongoing! And barely any news on what's going on there.
Russia 🇷🇺 weak, but Russia strong. Russia needs break (because it’s tired) Russia don’t want to give break. Author come on you should decide 😅
Россия сейчас методично уничтожает материальную базу ВСУ. Поставок из США и Европы почти нет, поэтому боеспособность ВСУ сокращается.
Удары по НПЗ очень не эффективны, цена бензина не намного выросла, а если даже возникнет деффицит топлива, то обычным людям придётся отказаться от автомобилей, а не технике ВС РФ. Тут как ни крути у военных будет бензин и столько, сколько надо.
Украинская агония продолжается...
Americans, stop to believe this channel. "Good times - bad times" makes not so good analytics about Russia.
Wasn't the "destroyed" himars launcher a decoy?
Damn seems real, that sucks...
usually, decoys do not have ordinance that cooks off in their tubes
not a decoy THIS time. Ukraine has also lost part of a Patriot system, and some of the crew. Not good.
They recently showed one in a barren tree line. Said it was real. It wasn’t. That was a dummy. But others have been hit
@@davidbarry6900we don’t actually know this. Those MAN trucks actually used by Germany fir several things. Including irisT. It’s presumed by some that gave dubious info that it’s patriot.
That being said. If anything it’s the TELs you’d choose to lose if anything. Taking out a TEL or 2 won’t take out a patriot battery.
In the video we all saw I’d say it was more likely irisT as part of it was brownish in colour. This would fit in with the export systems due to be delivered to Egypt that were instead sent to Ukraine.
As it stands we don’t know or have been given enough info
The Russian have captured half of robotyne and are moving northwest of verbove, the Russians have also made multiple tactical gains through the front Watch Willy oam when doing your updates.
Histroy legenda and weeb union are also great channels
❤️🇺🇦❤️
🙂👍
Just came here to take a laugh o this Chanel , funny how this guy is starting to change the narrative since Russia is capturing ground. And funny fact that he keeps repeating that Russia is trowing to frontline new mobilized soldier , how can be they new mobilized if Russia only make one mobilization , like wtf ???😂
Russia uses conscription. They conscript new men into army twice a year.
@@zbigniewmalec4816 conscripts are not used in this war. May be only to guard some border regions (which is risky)
First viewer and liker
Ok
First
Russia takes Avdiivka? Is this an informative channel or a historical one?
Avdiivka was captured quite a long time ago and is no more. Now there is Avdeevka like Bakhmut is Artyomovsk now.
3/17/2024
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
It's over.
We're so back
@@eveb9459 I wish that were true
@@teddykayy The war has not been lost yet, we all must keep working to victory even in the darkest of hours.
@@eveb9459 ✊ 🥺
From your reports we can see that Ukraine looses its territories all the time, Ukraine can not win alone against Russia, next are Baltic states they will just cut them off from the land, maybe also Poland will be involved or attacked and NATO will not start a nuclear war with Russia because of 4 courtiers! This is what you have to expect! NATO as we can see is afraid to even talk that they will send a military power in Ukraine!
Yeah Russia doesn’t really stand much of chance against NATO.
Уверен? )) @@ArmUkraine
@@user-rm3rn9fi3v if Russia can’t win in Ukraine, I’m not sure how you think they can win against 32 countries controlling 70% of the worlds military budget, and with the most advanced weapons humans have ever created. Supported by the strongest military industrial complex ever. Rheinmetall alone can outproduce Russian tank production 3:1 if it wanted to. (It would require a few factories to repurpose)
@@ArmUkraine Так же как это было с Наполеоном, также как это было с Гитлером. Люди в Евросоюзе психологически не готовы к войне ,если она начнётся. Как вы думаете,кто будет защищать Европу? Мигранты из Африки, Арабы? Большая часть людей побежит в Америку и Канаду. Никто не захочет умирать. Могу только сказать,что третьей мировой не будет,потому что европейские лидеры обычные трусы.
@@ArmUkraine And these big military budgets are outproduced 3-7 times by Russia, even according to them.
Ukraine is losing
It's never been so over
The fact that this is proof of multiple things i predicted and notified many of is beauty and validation of my logic and calling
You look silly
good content but outdated by at least 2-3 weeks ...
Its an overview which is not outdated as of yet. For example the references to the recent bombings of Russian oil depots.
Russia is winning
They only move forward, slowly, at great cost to their men and equipment ONLY when Ukraine can’t fire back too often. That’s pretty embarrassing. Russia has shown the world that its conventional military is seriously incapable. If Washington decides to assist Ukraine again Russia stops or goes backwards.
Ukraine is doomed
If Ukraine is doomed, NATO will enter the war. There will be no such thing as a collapse of the front line.
Minsk agreement sounds pretty good now, doesn't it?
@@albertwolanski7688 Minsk agreement will sound good to russia before it's catastrophic coming disintegration.
😢 You lost yout contry or by Russia or by western debt with much people killed 😢... beg for peace😢
Русские продвигаются медленно ,потому что повсюду мины.Не смотря на потери они побеждают и захватывают города.Преимушество 1 к 15.Авиабомбы и искандеры это козыри и главная сила.Ситуация взят Харьков и Киев цель.
At this point, even if Ukraine wins there is no rebuilding the nation. Ukraine, like many other Eastern European nations, have had birthrates well below replacement levels for decades. This war has destroyed the last of the young men who would be expected to rebuild the nation in the aftermath of the war. The best Ukraine can hope for at this point is to become a satellite of some nation like Turkey or Poland, two nations who have the firepower to back up whatever remains of the country after the war is over. At worst, they end up becoming absorbed by another nation who will colonize the empty land.
Are french troops a real possibility?
There are very successful small nations out there, Ukraine will win the war, and worst case scenario, it will stabilize its population around 20 million, which is far from the almost 50m of 1990, but it will be a powerful country within the EU and NATO in the long term.
Nope.
@@nian60 is that to me?
"no rebuilding" japan got wrecked And nuked twice and Is now a powerful nation, i think that after the war, in the far future, there Is a chance for ukraine to be like that
At some point a source check is needed. You're just repeating Ukrainian Ministry of Defense talking points. "Russia's firing missiles at civilians!" No, they're not wasting precision-guided cruise missiles killing civilians. You use precision-guided weapons to not kill civilians while blowing up the thing you actually do need to destroy. The Iskanders hitting Kharkov or Odessa are hitting military targets, and that may include apartments Ukraine is using as barracks for their soldiers. Ukraine frequently uses schools and other such places specifically to generate this kind of talking points, not unlike Hamas.
"Russia's so depleted they're putting their new recruits on the battlefield." Yeah, well, welcome to how troop rotations work. The new guys have to learn sometime. They're still being led and accompanied by veteran troops. The veterans rotate out while the new guys come in. And after 2 years of heavy fighting, you can be damned sure a lot of those veterans are very eager to get rest and a trip home to see their families. That's been a huge issue of domestic upset. Putin's now in a position where he's solving this problem. Ukraine's acting like this is the end of Russia. It's evidence of exactly the opposite.
Clearly you've got a pro-Ukraine bias and you're willing to repeat their talking points without looking critically at them to see if they're true or if they're cope. Ukraine's losing and losing badly. There is no hope of them winning, so we're seeing the terrorist efforts (the pin prick strikes into Russia and the heavy use of sabotage efforts and spies) because Ukraine can't do damage to the army that matters. The West isn't going to fix it either. They don't have the capacity. Ukraine picked really crappy allies and Putin checkmated them. It'd be nice if they'd negotiate a peace and stop the slaughter, but no, they still want more bodies in the cemeteries. So, it continues.
There are SO many videos showing what you orcs are actually hitting. Everyone in the civilised world watches those videos.
He is a puppet of the Ukrs, he is mad because the hrywnas are worthless.
Smart man
An amazing mix of lies and pro-Ukrainian propaganda. Dislike
If you want lies go and watch the fascist orc channels.
That is what paid poppets do.
Nice bot account.
Can you tell me how many Hungarians had to die because of the Ukrainian Nazis? I bet you don't even know what I'm talking about! Mr. "Expert"!
You look silly
@@alfredchurchill2328 You did not answer! "Expert!"
@@attilaszalai1184 embarrassing
@@alfredchurchill2328 Embarrassing? An "expert" who can't answer? Of course it's embarrassing! Courage! Feel free to!
@@attilaszalai1184 The Kremlin indoctrination is big in you.
Embarrassing
God Bless Russia
It's not god that supports Mordor. It's --> 👿
Only in this conflict.
Rochan Consulting is far from neutral. It's always negative towards Ukraine and optimistic about Russia's advances. I know because I used to pay for their consulting services. If this analysis is based on Rochan, it's worthless at worst and a worst case scenario at best.
Second
Basically what your update was about is what NATO tells us every day…Russia is losing,Ukraine is winning
Thanks😂😂😂
So you didn't watch the video. Username checks out.
👍
Hello