Sanctions and Russia: Effects, Lessons, and the Future | A History Lab Discussion w/ Stephen Kotkin
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- čas přidán 12. 06. 2024
- A Hoover History Lab Discussion between Kleinheinz Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin, Research Fellow Michael S. Bernstam, and Sergei Guriev, provost and professor of economics at the Institut d'études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po).
Many analysts are skeptical about the effects of the sweeping sanctions imposed by the West on Russia - pointing to the Kremlin’s apparent ability to weather and circumvent the harsh measures. They say that Russia’s resilience to this onslaught is due to its geostrategic advantages including the sprawling Eurasian landmass and its relationships with China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and a number of Central Asian countries that declined to join the sanctions regime. These skeptics also highlight perverse and unintended consequences of the sanctions, including driving economic activity underground, spurring criminal forms of commerce, and helping the Putin regime strengthen control over the private sector and oligarchs. What is the actual story? What are the facts, consequences, responses, paradoxes, and long-term effects of the sanctions on Russia? Has Russia become vulnerable economically? This conversation explores these questions and more.
For more information on the Hoover History lab, click here - www.hoover.org/history-lab.
I have been a professor all my life, and I believe Stephan Kotkin is by far the most brilliant, analytical mind in America and in the West. He understands the major movements of history, of course, and his specialized knowledge of Russian history and life is beyond any other thinkers in this area. By far. I also admire his knowledge of America’s strengths which many underestimate
As a bonus he has a bit of Joe Pesci in him.
Stephen Kotkin is a national treasure. Thank you for this important discussion!
Kotkin and Thomas Sowell are a great one two punch, they cover different ground with such clarity.
An international treasure, to be more precise.
I keep an eye out for new Stephen Kotkin videos every day.
I am particularly happy when I see a new one from Hoover.
Today is a good day, eh?
2 out in one day today ;)
More please
I thought I was the only one who does that!!
Same
You are doing very well in your "new role" as the host Stephen! Appreciating your work!!!!
I'm soo excited to hear this discussion!! Stephen is my favorite political scientist/historian on CZcams.
Nice glasses Stephen, spicing things up !
Sexy.
Professor Kotkin, thanks for this discussion, but get back to work on Volume 3 of Stalin’s bio; I’ve been waiting so long, my clothes are out of style.
I suspect they will remain out of style even after his 3rd Stalin bio volume is published. Great line though. I am totally stealing it.
Kotkin and co amazing as always.
I adore listening to Sergi Guriev - I have heard his analyses on several other online venues. Besides being smart, I find him very charming! I had not seen Michael S. Bernsam before but really appreciated his detailed discussion of the Russian economic situation. As for you, Stephen, I have sat through many of your online lectures and this was just another great performance. Thank you all for helping us understand this very complex situation!!
Always a great day when I find a new post by Stephen Kotkin. This man never disappoints.
To the extent that the sanctions were actually meant to counteract Russian aggression, ending the war in Ukraine quickly and on favorable terms, they must be seen as failing.
You might as well say: to the extent that the sanctions were actually meant to revive dinosaurs, they must be seen as failing.
Both statements would be true, but completely pointless.
Are you suggesting that not enacting sanctions would have ended russian aggression and ended the war quickly/favorable terms more quickly?
Steven Kotkin! I'm in. Thanks for making these videos. They're very important even if one doesn't agree with everything.
Simply put: an excellent discussion. Covers most of the important economic topics that are rarely, if ever, addressed in the media. If you have a question about Russian economic policy there is a good chance you will find your answer in this video.
Thanks for this interesting and competent talk.
Thank you! Very informative and interesting!
Excellent discussion. Enlightening and clarifying. Illuminated some important new aspects of the shell game of wartime Russian economy. Thanks for the depth and insight of the questions, and also for the smart answers. I feel happily edified! 😊
So much expert information. So wonderful! And the best accents!
Heh, heh! I'm having a hard time getting by Stephen's new spectacles!
And Stephen: Those of us who have read and valued Volumes I and II of Stalin are waiting for Volume III. While I find these videos valuable, shouldn't the shoemaker stick to his last until Volume III has been completed?
Ignore the heathens, we love your new work. Stalin can wait, he is still dead after all (and there was much rejoicing).
Re Stephen's new blue glasses. Today they match his shirt and jacket. I keep thinking he's borrowed the glasses from his wife! I adore this man.
I think Professor Kotkin is capable of walking and chewing bubble gum, at the same time. The next volume isn't scheduled to be released for a couple of years. The dude is capable of engaging in other activity, while writing the final volume. Plus, diversions from writing are healthy. As Kotkin himself has stated -- spending extensive time with Joseph Stalin and getting inside his head takes a toll on one's mental health.
Prof. Kotkin is wonderfully insightful through his exploration/exposure of detail. Great show.
LOL. Kotkin totally fell for the Russia-Trump Hoax. It was more than embarrassing. It destroyed a lot of his credibility on contemporary political analysis. He was totally duped...go back and re-listen to all the propaganda he gladly swallowed! lol.
Something that may not be that apparent is that some Indian refineries are jointly owned by Indian private company (51%) and Russia (Gazprom?) (49%). Consequently, when the Indian private refining company buys the oil cheaply making a bigger profit, about half goes to Russia. The value of the Russian assets also goes up if and when the Rupee strengthens.
What does India gets (apart from the oil)? They are built along the border with Pakistan with very wide roads on which planes cam land, thereby securing India from an attack by Pakistan. It also stops smuggling of drugs, and weapons except some carried across by drones. Indian insurance companies are also providing insurance to Russian ships transporting the oil and making profits. And there is some protection from China as well.
Surely those very same refineries would be the FIRST target attacked in a conflict with Pakistan, though, right? lol. Those "wide lanes" don't only work for Indian aircraft!
I thought it was Rosneft, not gazprom? Either way, I'm sure that India has taken great advantage of their position over russia during these perverse times and taken the majority of profits out of russia's hands under the guise of "avoiding sanctions" lololol. But, maybe I'm wrong and India is much more corrupt than I give them credit for, so that Russia has found a way to benefit from this situationship.
Any release dates for the Volume 3.. awaiting eagerly.
Very interesting video. Thank you.
A very interesting discussion, gentlemen! 😃
Kotkin! Excellent! Friday just got better.
A very illuminating discussion; thank you to the host and guests. And, your new eyeglasses are very stylish, Professor Kotkin. :)
Amazing discussion, very informative with great experts on the matter. Prof. Kotkin appears to be an excellent host and he lets people speak without interruptions (rare nowadays)
Is it just me or does Stephen Kotkin sound incredibly like Joe Pesci?
Nose job is now child's game. But I am happy with my nose. What I urgently need is a "voice job".
It's the New York accent (or, Newark, NJ, in Pesci's case). But, yeah, Prof. K. could easily do a great Pesci impersonation.
There is no voice on CZcams that I’d rather listen to than Steven kotkin’s
Really clever conversation!
More Kotkin please.
Always looking forward to Mr Kotkin's lectures
This is one of the best exposes of the Russian situation. Thank you so much.
Noticed Stephen Kotkin, I'm in. Love the glasses.
Very interesting thanks
This is excellent I recommend it. Why wasn't transcript turned on? The ccs were helpful but transcript helps me find the sentence I need repeated because of the dense content and Bernstam's accent.
We don't know when this discussion was filmed, but it's too bad it was done just before Prigozhin was blown out of the sky. I'm looking forward to hearing what Stephen has to say about this.
That rate increase was on Aug 15th.
0:35 He mentions that "this week Russia raised its interest rates by 3.5%." A simple news search has that event happening on or around August 15, 2023.
One of the best interviews ever about the effects of sanctions on russian economy 👏👏👏👏👏👏
Agree totally
Fascinating - follow the money - never fails.
immediately like 👍 for Sergei Guriev.
Amazing discussing, among which was the insight that Russia massively cut off its nose to spite its face when it insisted on the payment of its oil exports in rupees and renminbi, rather than dollars. (Note: I'm pretty sure Russia originally insisted on payment from India and China in rubles, but settled on payment in the currencies of each of those respective countries.)
35:24 can someone explain the issue on the blunder of trading bilateral currency please?
Why is the trade balance condition important? Thank you.
Thank you for this balanced and insightful presentation. It was well worth the time invested in watching it and it will help me frame my analysis of events going forward.
I see Kotkin, I like.
Dr Kotkin is indeed an incredible mind in International Affairs, Russian and Asian studies. He seems to also understand the economic and business issues. Rare indeed. He is likely the foremost expert on Stalin as you likely know from even attending this webcast. Some of Dr Kotkin's unappreciated talents are a total lack of hubris. A man of his stature could easily be pompous. Dr Kotkin is not. He delivers his presentations in an even manner, with complex issues delivered in simple terms and with a good deal of humour. If you look carefully, you will no doubt observe a twinkle in his eye when he addresses certain topics. I truly wish that I had had the opportunity to study under Dr Kotkin. Instead, I will listen to his lectures and read his books whenever I can. Thank you.
I see Stephen kotkin i listen!
Thank you so much guys, fantastic knowledge, I would like if you could discuss the harm to the Russian economy if oil drops below $30, what does that look like for Russia?
That will be close to the costs, so the war will most certainly become unbearable for the budget. But Russia and Saudis control the market and will definitely cut down production in such case.
@@Yirayol What if a global economic slowdown led by China crashes demand for oil so that it naturally falls to those levels, though? You can keep the prices as high as you like, but if there aren't any buyers because of a recession...who buys??
Who else is eager to hear Stephen comment on the reason outcome for Prigozhin?
I came to listen to Kotkin, not two long-winded academics with thick accents!
It has been suggested that some of the oil wells need to keep producing to avoid damage. Could this be involved?
I heard that too, it could be...
We need a Steven Kotkin talk on Post Prigozhin Russia
Seroviken (sp) will replace Putin’s chef and be a more ferocious war leader for Wagner.
Joe Pesci talking about the mob hit on Prigozhin😮
YaaY, Heeee's Back Thank the lord for this brilliant mind, sincerely...
What is the effect of the economic friction of “work around” trade deals with third parties for any government but especially for Russia?
2:50 -> please provide actual data and stats to understand the magnitude please
Do you follow Hoover? Good for you.
How the current sanctions against Russia compare to the 1930s sanctions against Japan? Thanks!
A superb discussions regarding the Russian economy since their invasion of Ukraine. Each person has exceptional economic knowledge and insight. Absolutely riveting. Everyone should listen. Thanks to the esteemed guests and to Stephen Kotkin for putting this together.
god bless you stephen kotkin.
never thought you would be a host!
The private sector was given an ultimatum to either leave Russia or get sanctioned or severe punishment...
58:44 look right through
I'm fascinated by how Michael and Sergei gather their information. They must have reliable contacts inside and outside of Russia, plus with their being Russian and economists they get access to Russian publications, news reports, etc. Then using much analysis and comparison they then come to their conclusions. They are very intelligent men, like our Mr. Kotkin. Thank you gentlemen!
The sanctions guy is giving good info, but I can barely understand him. Do they have a transcript?
Thank you gentlemen, hope some Russian people listened and spread the knowledge. It’ll only help to diminish the damage their president is imposing on their state.
I love to listen to a Russian accent once in a while but while Guriev is very articulate, frankly Rasputin's doppelgänger here is hard to follow. Did he ever have to teach college students I wonder?
Is this Kotkin's podcast?
speaking of "sanctioning Russia" always reminds me "Continent isolated" meme
Can't tell whether Steven has a ladder because his library is so big or rather, because he is so small
3.5% in a jump is crazy
This has been great bonus for india & others while the west dont want to develop their energy & manufacturing
Kfc general is right
Sanctions or not Russia is able to out produce US & UK Europe in artillery which is what counts
Finally a realistic overview of the sanctions and how they are impacting the Russian economy instead of the amateur journalists predicting the collapse of the Russian economy every two days.
‘How situation is not how we want it to be’? So, US couldn’t calculate the consequences of their actions? what’s new
Stephen, Who is this Michael S. Bernstam???
No Chef Boyardee can on the bookshelf today?
The policy should be: 1) take one proven case of importing something big or important (eg. airplane parts). 2) announce sanctions against (a) country which let it happen, or (b) bank which performed the payments, or (c) the company that arranged it all.
Putting up sanctions against entire countries may be too severe, and governments there may be unable to control actions of unscrupulous importers. Case (c) is also not effective, as such transactions are likely done via ghost companies just created for this purpose a week prior and disbanded after. But case (b) - punishing unscrupulous banks - is very doable and effective. Setting up “ ghost banks” is not easy, so real, established banks are used. Banks know what such transactions are for ( totals are in millions of dollars ), and the mechanism is simple and reliable - cut them off from SWIFT, or impose penalties on their transactions.
And yes - Swiss banks - get ready. Aiding Russia has to stop!
60 nations were supposed to be represented in the BRICS Summit in South Africa last week.
They were owners of resources like oil, minerals and Ag products.
The apparent majority of the resources available on the planet appear to be aligning with BRICS.
The discussions of Sanctions as Asian Unity, beginning to exchange Goods with Africa and Latin America, isolates the G-7 Nations to exploiting each other.
The US exploitation of European Consumers with LNG seems to have created Economic Recession in a couple European Nations already.
The Sanctions appear to be doing the opposite effect from the intended one?
Driving Russia out of business appears to be eliminating the ability to exploit developing Nations?
The Sanctions seem to be a failure?
Yes that would work well
Sanction about 80% of the world, including pretty much all major resource producing countries
At what exact point does it sink in hegemony has gone, the days of acting as the only rule maker or breaker of rules has gone.
Waging non-stop war across the globe, constant breaking of international law and still trying to take the moral high ground.
Laughable if it wasn't so serious
People seem to be too anxious about being able to predict exactly when the collapse will occur in Russia, but the process of capitulation is similar to when a damn gives way, and I don't think we're going to see a gradual process with clear indicators, and what will likely occur will rather be a sudden, catastrophic implosion with some unpredictable consequences. - j q t -
When u can't see ur enemy winning. Pray a blindside doesn't catch ur backside
Kernel Sanders has been reincarnated as a Russian!
People always talk what they want to hear.
⭐
Well this was fascinating. I don't have an ECON degree but have some Econ classes and I can listen to economists talk for days cause they are the smartest people on earth.
I wish we could hear more from these smart economists on main stream media who are going on and on about American elections and how Putin is holding out for them. Well that's 1.5 years away, and almost 2 years away from a potential new president taking over the position. I mean it sounds like there is zero chance the Russian economy can last that long, that it would implode before then. The big X factor is China, if China can be constrained from providing loans and equipment to Russia, we could help Ukraine win quicker. We need to contain China and rack up the secondary sanctions ASAP.
There is no way Ukraine can win. Not without drawing Europe and the USA into a hot war with Russia, which would surely deploy nuclear weapons under those circumstances. In other words not without a world war, devastating the whole world. So, no, there’s no way for Ukraine to win. As a European I am furious that our governments are wasting our public money on such a dangerous enterprise and aren’t looking for a diplomatic solution.
I never knew Col. Sanders was from Russia
You would think this was a discussion from spring of 22...we know now most of these sanctions have back fired
How have they backfired? Everybody knows you can't impose sanctions without taking a hit yourself.
The technical default was stupid. Your enemy wants to give up their money to service their debt - let them. Less money for them to spend on the war.
There is explicit sanctions and implicit sanctions ,
I would have received more value from this conversation if there had been a third more "Russian positive" economist to counter the view points.
Also, what about the Russian sanctions unintended effects on Western Europe, which by all reports is that they're in recession. And, without Russian gas Germany might permanently lose is industrial base. What's Europe's cost for Russian sanctions?
Natural gas price is not much higher than before COVID now.
Europe has a little recession because of the hike in interest rates. It is only healthy for the economy.
All countries fiddle economic data including the ones the speakers come from
Colonel Sanders knows best
I'm amused by the political analysis of these two Russians. They either lost the 'russinness' of their souls or simply are not honest with the audience. Anyone who repeats the mantra of 'lack of ammunition' or 'no support for Putin in Russia' is either lying to themselves or to others.
Which is the case. Guriev's motives stem from one of the Yukos cases he'd been a part of as an expert. Look into it and make your own conclusion
What exactly is dishonest about the lack of ammunition?
Russian propagandists themselves complain about it on national TV - no need to even look at the front to see that Russia doen't have nearly as much ammunition as it wants to shoot at civilians.
Who knew Joe Pesci was so knowledgeable on Russia! Academy awards, Russian history, what can't he do! 😂
I haven't seen the interview yet but I saw the blue glass and I got to say that it doesn't look good Stephen :)
Please do more with Dr.Kothin!
Are India and China - both strongly against colonial rule supposedly, supporting the war to make money or anti-US/west?
Didnt enjoy this as stephen wasn't doing most of the talking!!! 😂😂 love the glasses though 🤓
I’ve seen so much instagram with russians having their holidays in Europe, made me think : “is there sanctions, or it’s just another excuse for our gov too increase the price of everything in europe
Sanctions shoud be used to cut our relatiions with Russia esp culture and sports
Con Air 2, starring Yevgeny Prigozhin, directed by Vladmir Vladimirivch 🎥🍿 🇷🇺
Its depressing. Pity we can't get Stephen's hot take on Mickey Harte's traitorous move to Tyrone 🤣🇨🇮
They were all 100% wrong about sanctions like they were about covid..russia has expanded its trade & export import opportunities, building bric alliance, growing its manufacturing
If you had bigger cohones you should begin every interview with a Russian with the question “ should Crimea revert to being Ukrainian territory?” Their answer will tell us a lot about how to interpret what they say.
Why do you think Crimea should do that?
The problem is that even the Russian liberals think Crimea is Russia. It will be tough for Ukraine to take it back as it has a Russian majority, I think they should concentrate on liberating the other regions.