Labour could face tougher challenge in future election after constituency shuffle
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- čas přidán 14. 01. 2024
- A re-drawing of UK constituencies may have a big impact on the next general election.
The changes mean there will be more seats in England and fewer in Wales and Scotland, and if the boundaries had existed in 2019, estimates show the Conservatives may have won by a bigger margin.
Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates walks us through the data and what it will mean for voters and the parties' seats in the Commons.
Read more: news.sky.com/story/sam-coates...
#rishisunak #generalelection #keirstarmer
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The two things this analysis ignores is that the 2019 election was very unusual.
1) The Torys have 'borrowed votes' that will Naturally return to Labour even if the Torys were doing well.
2) The brexit / Reform party is not standing down this time. And the torys will experience what labour have suffered with for decades, with the vote being split under first past the post.
The Torys are facing annihilation. If I failed in every aspect of my Job or acted corruptly in a professional environment i would get sacked. The Torys don't get an automatic right to governance. And bad performance should be punished.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the British voting public. Racism and scapegoating minorities are key vote winners and the Tories are all-in on those.
We also shouldn't look to employ incompetence or liars either.
There are more than 2 parties, and some of the others actually have policies instead of political answers.
@outofthetrash5925 I agree 100%, but they are unfortunately not very relevant in a FPTP election system, where the two main parties hog the vast majority of the votes. All they do is split/divide the anti-Tory vote and the Tories thereby win by default. The best they can hope for is a coalition with Labour. The situation has been made even worse since the last election with the redefining of constituency borders (gerrymandering). If the new borders had been active at the last election, Johnson would've had an even larger majority. Any vote for them is effectively a vote for the Tories.
What this country needs more than anything is electoral reform to a proportional representation system. Would result in more coalitions, but that at least would lead to less partisan politics.
@@kevinmcguinness1113 I'm not sure the people that make up the parties most likely to be involved in a coalition are adult enough to actually be in One.
I'm not so sure FPTP is the main problem. The system is rigged, with MSM subtly convincing the public that there are only 2 options. It's incumbent on people to vote properly and with a higher degree of education about whom and what they vote for.
It's gotten so bad that Labour and Torries don't even bother to share policy plans anymore. They know they win or lose on a coin flip. And the race to win is the biggest single problem. They don't actually care about the direction of the Country. They simply carry this childish mentality of wanting to beat the guys they went to school with as though an election represents their former hockey matches.
If people simply refuse to vote red or blue and opt for whichever policy they like the system won't matter. Changing the voting system wouldn't change the elitist system of governance and and campaign running.
@@kevinmcguinness1113The data used for boundary changes is out of date as its based on electoral registers from March 2020.
Since then 2.5 million people have died and 2.5 million young people have become eligible to vote.
Also remote working either partial or full has seen an exodus from major cities as especially young professionals look to move out of the likes of London buying property in what we're blue wall seats.
How anyone could bring themselves to vote Conservative after the mess the Country is in is beyond me.
I’m loyal and will stick to conservatives
Understandable if a voter wants to keep Labour out.
Labour are looking good adopting more of a new labour vibe than they did under Corbyn. They are in a good shape to win. But, Labour voters have been... well... frankly radicalised by Momentum and the Corbyn years to the point some of them see Kier as the second coming of Hitler (metaphorically). Labour voters need to band together if their overall goal is keeping tories out rather than getting into another spat right before election. As it is right now though, Labour are looking peachy.
The mess the world is in, not just the UK
@@User1849a Loyal? Have they repayed that loyalty,?
Come off it the Tories will never win they've pissed off the whole country.
If we let them win again then we're effectively telling them that we're fine with them raising our taxes, giving billions to their mate and destroying our public services while giving (not selling) them to their donors to operate at profit.
I'm not fine with that.
Possibly but winning enough seats to prevent Labour having a clear working majority is the next best thing.
Yea. Everything that the Tories have done that’s pissed off the country Labour also plans to do. UK politics are hilariously rigged.
@@stevec6427labour will do the same.2 dogs on the same leash
Yawn...that sounds like the petulant whining of a defeated Tory to me.
It was designed to favour the Tories, but it’s probably not going to pan out that way.
Oh come off it. The redistribution was designed to be utterly neutral and all political parties acknowledge that. Many parties (and yourself) may not like the new boundaries, but anyone who wants to have radically uneven numbers of voters in different constituencies is leaning towards totalitarianism, or at least gerrymandering and rigging elections to suit themselves.
@@Dave_Sisson Where did I say I don’t like them? They aimed to favour the Tories by reducing the number of seats in Scotland and Wales, but because of how the new boundaries are drawn it’s the Tories who’ll be losing seats! 😂😂😂
@@Dave_SissonI don't think anyone buys that XD
@@Dave_Sisson
😂 and what’s to stop an incoming majority party redrawing them again anyway?
@@youcantno3963 Most countries have a scrupulously neutral authority that draws electoral boundaries as populations change to keep each constituency the same size. The only *western* country where this body is not politically neutral is the USA.
Gerrymandering
That's not what that means.
It's precisely what gerrymandering means...@@RaRa-eu9mw
no, gerrymandering distorts results and is unfair. All these changes do is give more seats to england to reflect it's much larger population making everyone's vote more equal@@TheDandonian
that's right it was gerrymandered to favour labour and Jockistan
Yeh ok 🤨@@stamfordmeetup
Honestly as long as we get rid of the tories I don't care, I've never seen a more corrupt/hypocritical party in my life and that's saying alot considering how politicians are.
And they’ve been in power for nearly 14 years
Gerrymandering should be a criminal offence.
It's not gerrymandering, it's done by an independent body without influence from the govt or mps. It just happens to be that it benefits the tories due the addition of seats in their heartlands.
Like all those independent PPE contractors they used during the pandemic right?
@@jamesrobert102 It's done by an "independent" body with a head selected by the government so not independent at all
There has been no independent public inquiry looking into numerous scandals under tory government. If the investigating body they select for these "independent" public inquiries are donors to the tory party (and they usually are), then it's obviously not independent, so it can't be said that the tory cabinet are not guilty of committing a serious offence even if they have not been found guilty by said investigating body. Tory donors in these "independent" piblic imquiries instigated by the tory PM are never going to find the tories guilty even when they are.
A real Independent public inquiry means investigating body having having no links to the political party in question i.e. non donors, and instigated by parliamentary watchdog spontaneoualy unknowingly to said political party.
Please don't listen to anyone saying to vote for smaller parties. As long as the left vote is split Tories will keep winning. Vote tactically to get these idiots out, at least until we have a hope of a better system than FPTP.
Please Don’t assume that no votes against the Tories are ‘Left’ votes. Many despise aspects of the Labour Party and revile it’s more extreme elements as much as they revile the Tory extremes.
this election i think will result in a hung parliament, and to minimise the damage done by either labour or the conservatives we need to vote for smaller parties
@@robertpatrick3350 I'm sorry, I don't understand "don't assume that no votes against the Tories are 'Left votes'". I don't support labour, myself. But we absolutely need a change from the Tories.
@@london8701 voting for a smaller party only helps if that MP gets elected under FPTP. For instance, where I live it is pretty safe for Conservatives. Labor and Lib Dems are close to each other, but Lib Dems have the edge so they're the tactical vote. Unfortunately parties like Green don't stand a chance around here so if I want the best shot at removing the Tory MP, Lib Dems are the best shot
@@london8701
But not if your vote for a smaller party results in the tory still being elected as the MP by 1 vote. We need just one candidate everywhere doing all the campaiging against the tory candidate to minimize votes for parties who never win the seat but still sees the tory going down to Westminster for another 5 years
Where labour sit third or worse in constituencies they shouldn't campaign. Where lib dems sit third or worse they shouldn't campaign. it's utterly stupid for both to campaign strongly in every constituency. Remember when Farage and Johnson colluded in 2019 that helped the tories, a precedent has been set.
Interviews on this are misleading as they chose Buckingham- the most Tory of Tory market towns. However, the boundary changes have put it with Bletchley a v different constituency. Perhaps for balance doorstep in both locations. Worth noting that Bletchley has a MUCH bigger population
My grandmother's first job was in Bletchley. Although she said she couldn't talk about it.
Sky's prediction of the G.E. from the council election results is ridiculous. It doesn't factor in Scotland or Wales or the fact that they'll be few independents in the G.E.
When people say "they are as bad as each other"? what does that mean exactly? Labour hasn't been in government for 13 years, and everything has gone wrong in that 13 years.
This is obscene.
It reflects the changing levels of population in certain areas.
@@jjefferyworboys8138it reflects Tory cheating
Politics is over !!!! The two party system needs to go !!!
In the US perhaps, but there are more than two parties here in the UK
The failure of smaller parties to gain support can't be blamed on the two largest ones. They should try harder.
@@jjefferyworboys8138it’s not the smaller parties fault. People will always vote for either Tory or Labour because they have done so for decades. Old habits die hard.
@@KungFuWizardOfJesus tory boy is only ever going to support FPTP because it's the only way his party can win
@@jjefferyworboys8138 what?
Reform is polling higher than the lib dems
Your talking absolute nonsense
What we really need is the ability to recall MPs who break their promises, not new boundaries 😂
So the tories just needed to be very slightly competent and they would've ruled uncontested for eternity. Unfortunately they couldn't manage it.
This makes it very clear that we need proportional representation.
That is the only way we can have a representative parliament.
FPTP is about the WORST possible electoral system.
PR would mean jobs for life. It would render certain MPs impossible to vote out.
In a first past the post system NO vote will be equal. PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION NOW
This just confirms how fundamentally undemocratic 'first past the post' is. Time for proportional representation.
Less than 5% swing over Labour would mean 8% (81) is max. Starmer can forget about 125 seats (12%). Scotland 9% (15) is max. Nice figure analysis.
Thing is the national swing wouldn't have to be that big for Labour to gain enough seats for a majority, the swing is usually bigger in marginal seats than in safe seats so Labour could likely win a majority on a national swing of ~10% or less.
Most of us Scots are fed up with snp too and I was a staunch snp supporter now I vote Labour.
Let's have all the non right wing parties working together to force the tories to have to achieve more than 50% of the vote everywhere to win MP's.
@@dvidclapperton Lol Tories aren’t right wing anymore
This is just coping. Rishi and the Tories are going to lose.
Ah the Tory propaganda engine is warming up again.
Labour until last year had overturned a tory majority off over 20,000 once in its history they did it three times in three months last year and remember the tory majority in the commons is now about 50 since they've lost and will keep losing seats from now until the election.
Time for proportional representation
Those constituents who were interviewed clearly have not been paying attention. I very much hope they decide not to vote, it would be much better for all concerned.
Well done on sky fighting back the narrative that anything short of a 1945 or 1997 style win will be a failure for Starmer. The way the system is designed, Labour will be doing well to get a hung parliament. We need a more democratic electoral system.
One day we will actually move away from a two party system where one party is poor, the other gets in, by the time the other gets in everyone wants change, and the system repeats. The system doesn't work
So whats the news here???
Skybet says different
Betting websites can be one of the more reliable places to judge elections, they can't afford to get it wrong and they have no political agenda to push
We need a foolproof PR electoral system to kick these wretched Tories out.
And a more intelligent electorate.
Gerrymandering if I’ve ever seen one
12.7 to win. Mix that with newspaper endorsements, good luck with that!
Do not vote for either of the Large parties, they are the same, vote The Greens or Liberal. We do need a change from these old Cas where the only difference is that the Drivers Change , but the ride remains exactly the Same.
Yeah I would agree, but unfortunately with FPTP there's only the two big parties as realistic options. But Proportional representation is definitely the aim for many of us!
What we really need is a simplified system, that isn't rigged. Wouldn't that be refreshing?
News still pretending it matters who wins; 2024 edition.
wow a video from Sky I actually enjoyed, gerrymandering at its finest
They're quite disingenuous in this video, actually. Implying that the national swing is all that matters when there will be multiple other factors at play. The fact that the red wall is definitely going to flip back to labour no matter what substantially reduces the required swing. Couple this work tactical voting and bigger than expected swings in by elections I think Dimbleby will utter the famous words 'landslide likely' at the exit poll
Am voting 🗳 Labour with all my family and friends ❤
Is this considered gerrymandering in the UK?
Thursday was interesting though!🤔😁
Don't worry, Labour's going to win big, I'm putting a large bet on a 450+ majority. I'm a LD, but Starmer has the trust of the public
When are we going to wake up to the fact it's a fix.
Only portraying red and blue in predictions is not responsive, it's conditioning.
Vote for your favourite policies not your parents favourite colour!
So Labour need to gain 125 seats to get a majority. Is that going to happen? No it is not.
Dear god my vote democracy .🙏✅👍
And dont forget thr prince 😂
15% ?
Does this man read the papers.
Good
Why is everyone talking about the two party system when what this contry needs is "Change!"
The fact that some people can still.fote torys after the last few years , is northing but idiotisty
Wow, how lovely and not bias 🙃
Nope!
Boundaries going in the Tories favour again, same as the last 45 years. Corrupt democratic system. Bring in proportional representation Kier.
Reform
Gerrymandering?
Funny back then it looked ( with Labour loosing Scotland ) like Labour would never get another election victory.
“Rishi Shuback” 1:18
Vote Reform!
why has it always got to Just be Labour and Conservatives ???? Don't any pther party ever exist ????
Because the electoral system needs to change first.
Wish I could be happy the tories are likely to lose, but Starmer is basically a tory anyway
It's smart to be a tory. Nobody trusts labour
Rip up the system don't want either of the 2 toxic parties.
Don't want either of them neither get my vote other votes no point.
Never safe to assume it's a labour and tory battle. Snp can out of nowhere, green coul do that
Sam Coates gives Antony Green a run for his money when it comes to enthusiasm about psephology!
From the walking dead 💀and quiet jolly calling it a democracy lol 😂
Between boundary changes and Labour not really looking much different than the Tories, I fully expect Labour to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory possibly with a much reduced Tory majority or even a hung parliament. I can't see them taking many seats in Scotland even after a recent drop in support for the SNP, certainly not enough to secure a UK majority.
Furthermore, I suspect they will lose enough side ranging votes to the Greens, Reform UK and the forthcoming collapse in their Muslim voters after Starver suggesting it was okay to switch off water and food to 2 million people. These things along with people still voting for who they have always voted for will ensure a small Tory majority or a hung parliament.
We need to wait for the campaigns because we have no clue what Labour stand for. however it will probably be a labour Lib Dem coalition
😂 Is it all rigged? I think not, but there are shades of grey 😂
Peoples not mental meand , what lader betters activate possible for people human rights and country growth etc
Startup for next generation
Does re-drawing the boundaries help the tories? Yes
Are the new boundaries fair and based on population density? Yes
Move on!
Would Rishi have been able to postpone the redrawing until after the election if they didn't help the tories?
@@Dom-fk3te are constituency sizes based off of data from 24 years ago? Yes
Anyway political scientists don't actually belive the new electoral map will actually help the Conservatives. According to John Curtis, the evidence from last years local elections and some polling suggests that support is falling more in the constituencies the Conservatives did better in at the last election. Additionally voters are likely to vote tactically to keep the tories out, if that plays out at the election the system might not be so beneficial to the them.
So Wales and Scotland have been over represented for decade plus. Now partly evening up.
Hardly, the reason they’ve taken seats off Scotland and Wales is because they can’t be relied upon to vote Tory.
Congrats for new dictator, rishi sunak. He will try to crush opposition leader by plots
He is aTory supporter. Don't trust his words and decorated display. Fake prediction.
Absolutely right, a small tory majority like 2015 or hung parliament where conservatives are the largest party but not in power seems most likely. Then they will come back in 2029 with a big majority again.
If after all this the tories win an election then it just proves how the system is designed to favour them. They'd be even more corrupt than before, because they'd know that even after all their scandals and incompetence that they can't be removed from power.
What a prat.
"BORIS JOHNSON" 👹
only got to look at the labour benches too feel utterly pissed off 🤷♀️
Good. Keep the lefties out.
And allow the Conservatives to be re-elected, they have held power for a total of 49 years since the end of world war 2 and look at the state of the country. Good luck with your comical simplistic thinking.
@@martinwebb1681 most of those years in power were spent trying to clean up Labour “sorry there’s no money left” idiocies. Don’t risk Starmergeddon.
@@pauplus I see your version of 'cleaning up' means 'making things an awful lot worse'. The country was in a much better position under Brown, now this country is on its knees and working class voters are suffering because of it. We need to eliminate Conservatism in this country for good and establish a government that serves the people, not the elites!
@@pauplus The country is always worse off under the Tories and Labour have to borrow to stimulate the economy again. Not once under new Labour did people have to choose either heating their home or eat that day, that is a regular occurrence under the Tories now.
Whose going to vote labour and tory they are both the same
Good, because i dont want Labour to win
Me neither, but if they do it needs to be with the smallest majority possible, so they really struggle to get any legislation passed.
@@jjefferyworboys8138That doesn't benefit anyone. We'd just end up with 5 years of a government unable to do anything, making everybody's lives worse. All for what? So the blue team can win again in 5 years?
Clearly a tory sockpuppet bot look at his name cmon
@@Dom-fk3te looks like a labour voter is mad😂
Reform