How to Predict a Draw in Football Match (4 Tips Revealed)
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- čas přidán 25. 06. 2020
- What's the fastest way to predict a draw in football? In this video we share some football tips you won't forget, where you can expect a draw and which football statistics are best. Together, these give you the best chance of predicting a draw in football. Check it out...
Also, please check out our trading courses: caanberry.com/trading-courses
Timestamps
1:18 Key questions when predicting a draw in football.
6:30 Expected goals and draw predictions.
7:54 Possession statistics in football.
9:07 Time perspective with predictions.
10:41 Impact of outside investment in football.
Referenced in this video:
Football strategies explainer: • 3 Football Betting Str...
Statistics website used in this clip was called Infogol.
To predict anything you need as much information as possible. Using football statistics like xG, methodical strategy and being selective is the quickest way to make an accurate prediction in football. You won't get it right every time, as explained, although using large datasets based upon historical player behaviour is the right thing to do. The numbers don't lie!
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This video is an informational video about predicting a draw in football matches. - Sport
Come on man ........you have to give a shout out to Liverpool being the premier league champions! !!!!
Doesn't feel like we won it because of the covid thing..
@@riley0187 we couldn't have further apart views ............it's been the most joyous part of my life during this whole thing .
Liverpool are the best
Thanks mate!! Just subscribed and clicked the bell. Really useful video!🤝
Another great video, thanks Caan.
Another great video offering genuine value and information - cheers mate!
Aim of the game, Harry. Glad you liked it! Cheers.
Top stuff as per normal Caan-many thanks mate:)
Another great video Caan. Thanks.
Good info Caan, cheers.
Here's how I do it:
Paste the home table and away table (from SoccerStats) into Excel. Tell it to add up the goals per game, goal difference per game and points per game for every team both home and away, then multiply those figures by 100 just so I'm not looking at decimal numbers.
Bad teams end up with scores around -100 and the best teams end up with scores around 800.
Then I just compare the scores of the 2 teams. If the scores of the 2 teams are within a certain "Draw Cutoff" point, I bet on the draw. Anything more than that Draw Cutoff and I bet on a win to whichever team has the higher score.
The "draw cutoff" point is the draw percentage (all games) of the whole range between worst and best scores. For example right now, the score difference from worst (Norwich away) to best (Liverpool away) is 902. There have been 27% draws. 27% of 902 is 248 and then that gets divided by 2 to end up with 124.
If the scores between the two teams are 124 or less, I bet on a draw. Anything greater than a 124 difference and I bet on the team with the higher score to win. The Draw Cutoff changes each week as new games are played, as do the scores and the total range of highest and lowest scores. I use this system for accumulators betting low amounts so, it's going to lose nearly every time, but at some point it might work and it only needs to work once to get years worth of stake money!
Great vid Caan. Just bought your book too mate. Thanks for your guidance.
No problem, Phil. Appreciate the feedback. The Amazon book's a great starting point for any sport, let us know how you get on with it and don't forget to leave an Amazon review!
Nice to see some videos covering football. I have never heard of infogol, I will give it a look. Some useful info in this video :)
Recommend it, good tool with lots of different statistics available.
Infogol is immense both on PC and on app
You mean soccer
Thanks for the upload Caan. Always interesting videos.
No drama, Richard. More on route shortly if footie is your thing.
Good timing for this video as we approach the end of the season, cheers Caan 👍🏻
With the Premier League about to get going could be one to re-watch consider too ;)
@@CaanBerryProTrader Re-watching it right now..... :)
Another great video cheers Caan always interesting
Glad you enjoyed it
Cheers for the insight Caan 👍
Any time!
Nice well explained video.Good info Caan, cheers.
Glad you enjoyed it
Thanks Caan..
I'm concentrating on horse racing but will look into different sports and take the information you kindly give at a later stage..thanks again for all the videos 👍
Sure, lots of racing related content on the channel too. Check it out :)
Great video as always....very useful 👌
Thanks Caan, I'm concentrating on the horses atm and trying to keep things simple for now but it's good to have tips on other sports to diversify my portfolio, something I will likely do in the future with help from your videos like this. Cheers
Sure,. Jason. Once you start to have a few breakthroughs you realise that the throughline is human behaviour... making it easier to find edges in other sports too.
Nice illustrations... I wish I had learnt this a long time ago. Kudos bro
Great video bro i've learned many things form you thank you and keep posting videos for punters like us
Thanks, we just added another. Check it out :)
Always useful info, thanks
NICE Video Caan 👍
Thanks for the great video!
Interesting perspective on football trading.. Cheers 👍🏾
No problems, Booker. Glad you found it useful.
Keep the videos coming. Excellent.
Thanks, will do!
Hi Caan. Great channel. Quick question, don't the odds already factor in whether or not the teams need more than a draw as per your first example?
Great video, although there are some brilliant tips, because draws pay so well, i.e the only result in football which is never odds on, it is still SO difficult to pick draws!!
This channel is great!!
Great content as always.
Thanks, don't forget to sub for more :)
Great video as always. Nice giveaway too. Thanks Caan
We do try :). Stay tuned for more!
Great Chanel I’m glad I found this
Great video mate, betting on the draw this time of the year is quite profitable with certain teams desperate not to get beaten at both ends of the league tables. I quite like doing draw bet yankees this time of year aswell as trading individual matches
Could be interesting with the new Premier League season underway.
Very useful Caan. Thank you
You are welcome. What would you like to see next?
Excellent no nonsense advice. Thanks.
Cheers Brian. In the future, what kind of topics do you think we should cover?
It's really frustrating when one team draws mate. Thanks for this
No problem 👍
Excellent video, very helpful. Thank you.
Thanks, Ryan. Will be updating more soon.
Good work with important indicatiors
You sir are an expert!
Excelente video, lo voy a poner en cuenta para la próxima
No hay problema, es genial ver a algunos usuarios españoles en el canal.
Another good vid mate 👍
Thanks! Will cary on!!
More and more football lately on your channel Caan. Of course very informative and something worth to think of other than horses. Are you planning to do some cricket strategies in the future??
Hi Mat, no intentions right now. Only a couple of footie vids :D
Thanks again for the insight
Any time. More inbound.
Lots of good info -cheers
Glad you enjoyed it. What kind of topics would you like help with in the future?
Another great football analysis, confirmed some things I knew but also gave me ideas for other areas. My only other area to add are local derbies as I tend to see these as high scoring draws.
Interesting. Are there any other video topics you'd like to hear our view on?
@@CaanBerryProTrader the other I like to gamble but would love to trade is golf. There tends to be huge odds swings but never found the right approach or discipline to trade appropriately.
Stumbled across this channel the other day and loving it. I currently do matched betting so I'm going to build up a bit more money from that and then I'm going to buy your course and try my hand at trading. I'm quite sad in the fact that I love numbers and stats and so trading is definitely up my street.
Welcome aboard! Check out the new addition we just uploaded.
@@CaanBerryProTrader sir your mobile no send I am from India your big fan
Excellent thanks
Great insights Caan, I must say the Xg metric is a very powerful stat which helped me big time when predicting Under 2.5 goals, please keep adding some more as I am enjoying the uploads.👍
I agree, Karl. xG is the most important metric for many. It's completely changed the game, and I expect it will continue to over the next decade even further.
Hi Karl. Can you please provide a link where i can see xG?
Pls send me games plss..lol
Nice one here brother
Great video! More useful info
What was the most useful part out of interest?
I would love you to do a live trading video watching a football match. That would be brilliant!
Maybe one day!
Keep it up Berry
Will do, so long as you keep watching em Frankie ;)
Great vid
Great content, and very well explained
Thank you, Peter. What would you like to see more of in the future?
@@CaanBerryProTrader What you should look after for finding good matches for an under 2.5 trade
Great insight, I'm liking the football videos recently 👍I want to try the 1st strategy more on the other video but worried another quick goal would wipe out a good run in one trade and not sure how to best protect against that
Thanks, we do try. There's a lot of good racing videos too, will endeavour to pop up a few other interesting ones in the future.
Thanks, good video
Glad you liked it. Have you seen the other recent footie one? czcams.com/video/1NYOEfSw-DE/video.html
Great tips 👍
Cheers, what other kind of content would you like to see from us?
Interesting angle with outside investment in football. Think I'm going to use Infogol much more in play on the footy. Cheers Caan for some more proper good advice.
No drama, its one the most comprehensive sources I've seen. Free too :)
@@CaanBerryProTraderwhat
So no free trial and how am i going to trust your drow prediction and become a member and pay for the drow 😂
I kindly request for today free drow trial
Will try this draw tricks
More food for thought, thank you Mr Berry
Always worth thinking things through :) so many don't...
Some great points made, I’m going to look at some stats to see what the % of games drawing at half time is and see if there is any value in cashing out at half time.
A lot like to lay the draw at HT as the pressure goes on too...
Great video bro
Thank you, we have many other decent ones like this check out the playlists on the channel page.
Correct advice sir
Hi Caan
Also especially now with the sides that have nothing to play for after restarting the season in all the major leagues. If not going for promotion or fighting relegation most teams at moment are just happy to get to the end of season and start building there teams and getting through without catching anything. Also Liverpool may not have the hunger after winning title and may drop few points in last few games also by giving squad players more minutes.
Cheers good video again.
Yes. When a teams out in front their resolve is often a lot weaker. You see it in some games where they get an early lead...
Thanks
So should I bet the draw pre game then cash out as the game progresses or back the under goal or back the 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 or all 3 if I feel confident or is it best to concentrate on one strategy? The Leeds / Fulham game looks like it falls in this bracket
great video
Interesting insights
Cheers!
Wow this great, this is my first time of watching you live, am so much interested I want to learn more so put me into thanks Mr caan
Awesome! Thank you!
@@CaanBerryProTrader bro any contact to get you personally or Your email address please
I find that when a weak side goes ahead by a goal, then there is a very good chance the stronger team will score next thus giving you a draw(maybe temporary though).
This is an interesting angle. I haven't looked at the data/stats for it myself but it sounds like there is a logical reason behind it. When a team goes ahead you do see their morale/motivation drop a lot don't you.
@@CaanBerryProTrader The next goal market is an assumed market frequently mis-priced and the favourite doesn't always score next, in fact more so than you'd realise!
I do this, but mine is. If a weaker team goes ahead early, I put a bet on for the stronger team to win, u get better odds and even if they score u can even get a early pay out for a quick gain
@@EvEvToN4LIFE you should actually be doing the reverse as the data will show over time ...this is learned behaviour ? Backing the fav when they concede seems to be a common strat but a long term loser with all the value on the other side with the market expecting the " fightback "
It's a guessing game, cant predict what will happen. A draw is likely between big even matched teams as well as lower teams In bad form
Nice well explained video. Thanks a million for the months Geeks Toy sub. I intend to make good use of it.
No drama, if you haven't had it added yet it will be later today.
What is considered a low XG team for a draw? I have also noticed a trend of the favourite playing away.
Please which apps can I look at for sports betting or do you have apps I ca. download for football,soccer betting
Nice tips
Cheers!
Good video
Nice content
cheers
Hi Caan honestly I really enjoy your video tips here, now for me I do predict draws on my own, nobody thought me that, but I want to learn more on it because I want to build my own betting system to be predicting and open my own business on betting.. if possible a personal class for me bcoz draws is where I specialize.. thank you
I would like to share from your draw tips bro
Another brilliant video. It's what I want my CZcams channel to look like in a few years.
Small Acorns, Thomas :)
Thank u
Hiya Caan. Great Video. Just a quick question regarding what you said about the Correct Score markets possibly providing a strong clue as to whether a match might be a draw. You said the prices on 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 will be very short for games with a low goal expectancy. Is there a particular price range we should look out for for this? Like how you said if the under 2.5 goals price is below 1.60 we can expect few goals? Or is it just a case of the those scorelines being the shortest priced of the Correct Score markets on offer? Thanks in advance!
Thanks, everyone always wants those definable values although its not that simple. CS market prices vary so much from situation to situation. Not that helpful I know but its all unique really.
Hey mate. Im thinking about giving betfair a miss. Last night I picked 5 draws but only 2 of them got matched. With some of the obscure leagues betfair are offering lower odds than the bookies.
A few other stats to consider: 1). Where the two teams are in the league table in relation to each other and 2). Their goal difference stats.
Hi sir please Good evening
Please I need your help please
Checking the BTTS odds market can also give you an indication at a quick glance, of course depending on how much has been matched already.
Yes, important to have good volumes matched when looking through.
I always analyze the stats, their past games , possession and history before placing bets and it works for me 60%
Only if the price is right. Thats the main thing...
Nice
The Denmark-Sweden one was quite comical. It was widely reported in the news, 2-2 being the only score that would send both teams through - at Italy's expense. Although if Italy had performed better up to that point ...
First law of physics: if a certain outcome suits both teams (which by definition can only be a draw), zen. Of course the bookies always make provision for this. Not expecting to get the customary 14/1, I was still mildly intrigued in a modest punt ... and then mildly amused at the prohibitive odds. I don't recall what those odds were but fair dinkum to anyone who scored.
One of my favourite side salads used to be a 1-1 lucky 15. Often crashed completely. Often scored one - which, single win / double-odds consolation award factored in, would return most of your stake. Had quite a few two-ups - roughly 3-to-4/1 return. Occasionally scored a 3-up, returning roughly 30/1. Off-the-cuff ballpark guesstimate (I can't be bothered working it out for theoretical purposes) would be i.r.o. 250/1 return on the perfect four-up - which always eluded me.
Great vid,v useful as I'm thinking of starting backing the draw,like JK.DIEGO,he jets around the world by increasing his stakes until he gets the winner!!!!😷😷🍹
Who?
Which games are we expecting draw by this weekend games
I love a wee bet but this is lost on me im sick of being beaten by 1 but then most of my bets are accums and i dont really bet much or spend loads most of the money i win though is from cash outs.
Not sure on the stats so don’t know if this would back it up, but given since the football teams are playing after the break seems have been really slow in the 1st. Think a lot of games have gone 0-0 at half time.
Some have put it down to a lack of crowd. Why do you think?
So which market would you trade? The Draw, Under Over 2.5 and would you Back the unders or Lay the overs as Ive just calculated in the Norwich v Man Utd game (0-0 HT) you would make 15% more if the Overs started under 2.0 and laid Overs (1.87-4.80 £100 liab stake +£70 Profit) rather than backing the Unders (2.0-1.25 £100 stake +£60). Just backing the Draw would yield £66.66 from a £100 stake 5.0 into 3.0.
Also would you hedge up if a goal went in or if it goes 2-1, Would you back after the first goal goes in in the first half?
Would depend entirely on the match... to hedge or not to hedge. Often a tricky one, maybe a new vid?
Ps question from my wife who is a teacher, but what software do you use to create the video as it would be brilliant for remote learning?
Camtasia. She might want to look at cheaper options though... BB Studio is one.
@@CaanBerryProTrader much appreciated my wife is greatful as your content is a lot more engaging than traditional PowerPoint.
Hi Caan sorry to post this here but as this is a recent video more chance you'll see it. have you heard of the recent 'All Party Parliamentary Group' (APPG) report into gambling? It came out earlier this month. One of the things they propose is to ban online in- running betting. It's quite easy to search for the report on chrome and download it (pdf). If it's taken up it could seriously impact trading. Worth doing a video on it perhaps?
Possibly worth a video, tends to bring the wrong kind of attention though. I dont think it'll go all the way, they just need to tighten up on the bookies.
Thanks please i need answer for my question .how many trades you take per day ... As you do scalping ...1 ticks ... Is very hard to scalp . I think 5 or more is good .
How do you mean, Hinter? I scalp one or two ticks at a time yes, but I'll typically do that a lot in a trading session - in line with the amount of opportunity.
@@CaanBerryProTrader so in one race you take many trades .... thanks .i do scalping but only on football .
What do you think about card counting caan?
I think I'd rather do it than be against someone doing it :D
Caan Berry Pro Trader, awesome you got back to me btw. I’ve just turned 18 and have made quite on nice profit from matched betting and looking for the next step so looked at both sports trading and playing blackjack professionally and there seems like there’s fewer variables at card counting. Have you ever looked into this pal?
Big bet
Lol wow fame at last not often I win anything. Saw it on phone and had to wait to get to PC to make sure I wasn't seeing things. Ill head over to the other Vid :-)
Haha, you'll hear back from us shortly :)
The tips are alright but do I get a weak team to win and score in matching.
See the next upload for the answer to that one :0
Premier League last 287 games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 time band and 1-0 at 11 minutes , only 19/287 ended 1-1 .... it is not time decay that gives the edge .... how does the time of the opening goal assuming not 0-0 FT effect expectation of draw bias / lack of draw bias as time decays in a game ..... the flaw with expected goals is that it cant predict the time of the opening goal but you can react to the effect of the time of the opening goal ....
make that 19/288 West Ham United
1 - 0
Burnley
View events
M. Antonio 9'
1 - 0
make that 19/289 Leicester City
Chelsea
View events
W. Ndidi 6'
1 - 0
J. Maddison 41'
2 - 0
Any strategies for over 1.5 goals in a game?
So many, will think about doing a vid.
I'm good at picking draws