The Real Reason for The FAILURE of Truss Economics
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- čas přidán 19. 05. 2024
- A look at why markets reacted badly to the Truss mini-budget of September 2022.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:40 Largest Tax Cuts since 1972
2:11 Debt
3:34 Who Reversed Budget?
4:58 Inequality
5:57 Interest rates
7:37 Bank of England
8:32 Logic of Tax Cuts
10:18 Rising Debt
Sources:
ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budg...
www.ft.com/content/7bad4783-e...
www.economicshelp.org/blog/17...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/...
www.theguardian.com/politics/...
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ABOUT
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► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
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► What Would Keynes Do? Amazon amzn.to/2xShqq4
► Economics Without the Boring Bits amzn.to/48T1hA9
A very polite and diplomatic analysis of the actions of incredibly thick people supposedly running the country.
Wait until you see the next lot
@@garyb455 yeah? What's that assessment based on?
@@garyb455 most still don’t realise that they are one and the same.
Same people that think the conservatives are right wing.
@@ubermod5564 blue or red, they are both singing from the same hymn sheet shooting for the same outcome (destruction of the family and the nation in favour of compliant “global” citizens)
We just might get there a bit sooner with Labour.
@@Thesomersetgimp How are they not right wing? They've spent the last 14 years funnelling hundreds of billions to their pals in the financial sector and corporations
If I can use a firefighting analogy, if inflation was like a fire, the budget of Mary Elizabeth Truss was like trying to put it out by pouring fuel on the fire, I mean in theory the fire could burn so quickly it uses up the fuel, but 9/10 times you would have melted your face off. The economy was in a weak place and the markets probably believed the budget would force the government to borrow even more in the future, so they dumped the pound. In addition the UK is awfully centralised around London and the financial services industry. Tax cuts probably weren't the best way to get business investment into the UK, especially for the manufacturing sector
I agree, but the difficulty is also that Foreign Inward Investment of the volume we need requires access to markets other than just the UK. The Elephant in The Room is still there. And anyone wanting to invest in Europe, would have to ask themselves why coming to the UK would be preferable to going to Ireland or the Continent? Choosing to limit oneself to a market that is shy of 70m versus one of over 400m would need a lot more financial incentives rather than just tax cuts, which may or may not compensate for the additional friction and costs of being based in the UK. Moreover, living in a country with relatively mediocre infrastructure, a health service in crisis, and over expensive housing isn't on most investors' wish lists. All those decades of underinvestment and austerity in the country and it's people are coming home to roost.
The freemarket, doesn't magically provide a high quality of life for the average person. Without regulation, and public spending/investment, productivity dives, infrastructure crumbles and you get an oligarchy, of serfs and lords.
The free market is only as good as the ignorance of its participants
You could argue that is the natural progression of capitalism
Actually, you end up with social and economic hierarchies no matter what you do. They’re unavoidable and government regulation and intervention makes them even worse.
While it's true that unnecessary intervention can make things worse, the government burying its head in the sand while things are going downhill helps exactly nobody. Well, except those crisis profiteers. @@freedomwatch3991
ok stalin....
Recent Tory governments have had a few rebukes from the IMF. Such as the warnings some years back not to do more austerity, but they did anyway.
The bond market is still in disarray and that is not helped by the fact that the Banks are now selling the bonds generated by quantative easing.
Folk paying into pension schemes will take a second hit from that as pension schemes' mainstay is based on bonds and government bonds.
I used to believe that the stuff coming out if the Tory Chancelry was just ideologically driven, misguided neo liberal economics. I am beginning to see it as economic illiteracy.
Our economy is pretty much rubble now. As you keep explaining.
Thanks for another seriously good video.
But why did Brown leave toxic austerity as his failed legacy in 2010?
No austerity or deficit in 1997 though,...only billions in Tory budget surpluses.
I don’t think it’s economic illiteracy, they know exactly what they’re doing. Many of them worked in the banking and finance sectors so they will understand macroeconomics. Their ideology is just terrible, they don’t believe in welfare spending or the NHS. They do believe in trickle down economics and tax cuts for the rich.
Imagine how bad it is that the IMF has to advise government(s) not to go ahead with austerity. The IMF typically excels at such advice as "reduce government spending, cut back on assistance programmes that help the poor with commodity prices", etc.
@@pritapp788 Yup, for a G7 country to get such a letter is almost unheard of. And, from memory, I think the Tories have had two or three.
"I am beginning to see it as economic illiteracy"
It's quite simple: they believe in more for themselves and less for everyone else
There were no growth policies in Truss' budget!
At the time, Kwarteng and Truss claimed that their plan for growth would be ANNOUNCED in another 6-8 weeks - and that's just the announcement.
It would then need to get through parliament before it could be implemented, meaning waiting several more months before their policies began to be implemented, followed by several years of waiting, to see if they actually worked.
It was an extreme case of putting cart before horse, except this time they announced that they'd leave the horse at the farm, and only go back for it once they reached the market!
Also, Truss & Kwarteng didn't underestimate the Bond market. They simply didn't understand how it works and proved their own financially incompetency.
Good analogy. I thought they not only misunderstood the markets but disrespected them while be dependent on them to fund her plans. Not a good start to a critical relationship with a more powerful partner.
@@Finderskeepers.I wouldn't describe the financial markets as a single entity, but rather a mass of individual entities (NOT people) of varying influence, all acting in their own best interests, which is what makes them so unpredictable, perhaps inherently so... A weak analogy could be a "mob", except one consisting of companies acting as investors, rather than people.
The government doesn't need the financial markets to fund stimulus spending, but they do need them to remain stable, especially at a time when inflation is a problem. As pointed out in the video, Truss rocked the boat at the wrong time (1:02) with policies likely to exacerbate inflation further.
The drastic fall in UK govt bond prices (and corresponding rise in yields) which prompted the BoE to intervene was actually another (albeit related) issue, caused by pension funds relying on derivatives subject to marginal calls, but it serves as another example of a problem that neither Truss nor Kwarteng anticipated or were ready to tackle.
@@GonzoTehGreat I agree, the markets behave in quite a predictable manner for the most part, like a mob. Governments do need to consider them. The markets confidence in government has an impact on borrowing costs which then impacts all UK yields and all asset values- its the risk free rate. Truss did not inspire confidence with an uncosted budget give away. Ireland is a good example. They messed up with the financial crisis yet their 10yr yield is now 2.7% because they accepted their medicine and are now running a big budget surplus compared to say Italy whos 10yr is at 3.9%. Thats a big spread for bonds even though Irish inflation is 4% and Italian 1%.
Cut taxes and put more money in people's pockets...AND BOOST GROWTH....sounds like a plan.
@@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr That's not a plan. Just misguided wishful thinking.
She also failed to cost the budget a basic mistake. Immediately markets assumed the worst and it lost confidence in the British government compounding the issues.
As someone who used to work a low pay / minimum wage job. I can tell you that even if overtime was not taxed it still would not be worth it.
I understand low pay is bad, but your comments make zero sense, as Spock would say, it's illogical.
@@daviddowsett1658 So, your hourly rate is so low that working extra hours makes little difference to your final pay check.
Surely still better than a life on welfare?
@@VincentRE79 Yeah, it obviously is. What I am arguing against is Liz's logic of cutting taxes to make overtime more appealing. -She may have already known my argument- which is probably why she decided to cut taxes for the rich.
The argument is about overtime at a low wage not low wage vs welfare. Also, I think that some people on welfare do the odd cash in hand jobs that the government doesn't know about to supplement their income.
@@conman698 They have to do other things to survive. You can't live on £99 per week that Universal Credit pays unless living with parents.
Never trust a Truss
truss the plan
Personally I am absolutely convinced that had we chosen to invest during the aftermath of the financial crisis in infrastructure projects, improving healthcare and education during a time when money was pretty much the cheapest it has every been we would've been able 'invest' our way to a better future. Done correctly we would've created jobs, reduced welfare spend and improved the country's infrastructure and made it a better place to do business. Had we have grown the economy we would've been able to get the deficit and national debt under control. Austerity never really seems to work (I cannot think of an example where it has anywhere in the world??). I fear we have missed what was a golden opportunity and the Tory party have compounded Cameron and Osbourne's dire errors with Brexit and Truss's calamitous mini budget. The rot has well and truly set in now.
Like you say, "the market" is morally neutral. In the same way a black hole is neutral. It will tear apart anyone and anything in its vicinity - it does not discriminate.
This is great content for a small channel. It's not particularly relevant to my life but I watch it anyway. Good stuff.
Truss is the reason my mortgages have increased she should be on a hill looking after goats far away from politics,
No,...interest rates went up to counter Putin's inflation. BTW....highest ever UK inflation was 27% in 1975 UNDER LABOUR.
This Tory ideology of tax cuts for the rich worked to an extent in the 1980s, but that was 40 years ago. And even though it had a marginal difference at the time, the long terms effects of this ideology have been very damaging.
The economies of the world has changed. Look at how the US economy has diversified since the 1980s, American banks aren’t the biggest companies anymore. However, The UK has had too many Tory governments wedded to these old fashioned principles in a changed world. Trickle down economics needs to binned.
The Tories are the party of people who have always wanted easy rents - it's nothing to do with ideology, it's their own material interests at stake here
I don’t really know if it did “work” in the 80s or if it was just an immediate pay-off, with us slowly uncovering the societal effects of those policies rearing their head years later. I don’t consider “I’m fine, even if generations after me are fucked” to be the market of successful policy making (but tories sure do!)
@@_KRYMZN_ The selfishness that some but not all older people exhibit is simply the product of 45 years of people being incentivised and encouraged to only think about themselves
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp exactly! I think it “worked” in so much that the selfish people attained/maintained wealth; at the expense of everyone else, of course - which finally came to fruition early this century (of course to boom/bust cycle didn’t help)
@@_KRYMZN_ Have you read David Harvey's "A brief history of neoliberalism"?
Excellent, thank you.
Growth is needed, Truss tried this by attempting to let inflation wipe out debt in real terms while decreasing taxes. However she underestimated the bond market.
The quandary, of how to achieve growth that includes average person, is one that alludes so many governments.
If you let inflation run unabated then it rights of savings and pensions as well as debt ... not a very good plan.
There were no growth policies in Truss' budget! At the time, Kwarteng and Truss claimed that their plan for growth would be ANNOUNCED in another 6-8 weeks - and that's just their announcement...
It would then need to get through parliament before it could be implemented, meaning several more months of waiting before their policies even began to take effect, followed by several years of waiting, to see if they actually worked!
It was an extreme case of putting cart before horse, except this time they announced that they'd leave the horse at the farm, and only go back for it once they reached the market!
Also, Truss & Kwarteng didn't underestimate the Bond market. They simply didn't understand how it works and proved their own financial incompetency.
That assumes that Truss has some basic economic competence. There’s definitely no evidence that she has. And further, presenting an economic statement like Kwarteng did without running it past her peers was just criminal negligence 🙄
“Try not to think of this through the lens of redistribution” - Liz Truss
How you go about doing it hasn’t eluded anyone; they know how, but they’d never betray their wealthy benefactors.
excellent explanation, thank you
Another great summary .
Sir, great content. Congratulations.
I miss the lettuce 🥬
Low productivity is mainly caused by low investment, while working in financial services thete were days when I did no useful work as the computers were offline due to lack of investment in capacity and resilience meaning proposed workforce cuts were never achieved
Lower taxes don't just motivate people to work more. They also boost customer spending which drives the economy. This is in essence how the US functions. Interventionist policies like higher taxes *in my opinion* do more harm than good because no matter how much the government wants they just can't be sole spender in the economy and expect massive growth.
Many other countries had high inflation, rising interest rates and announcements of tax cuts at the same time as the UK, can someone explain why the UK in particular was the only country where faith in the markets was lost?
The reason the UK has low productivity is precisely because of artificially low interest rates that cause resource misallocation, while also reducing the real rate of return for ALL businesses by creating a rapidly growing gap between the value of assets and their output. So that all business require more years reinvesting revenue to expand/ double. so the lower interest rates go, the more investment there is on paper, but the lower the rate of return becomes for all existing businesses. "hey look my business assets increased by 300%! Now my doubling time has increased by 300%!.
Dunno, I’ve hired a number of legal/accounting services here and it takes months longer to do anything than in Canada, people here just don’t seem to really do their jobs well far as I can tell
Goes back to the corruption of Working Tax Credits which subsidised commerce and industry.
People can make excuses or blame others such as the Bank of England but two facts don't lie:
1. The markets can sniff out BS 💩
2. She shouldn't have pulled this stunt in the first place.
So why did they fail on Calamity Brown?
She was ignorance personified
Yeah Truss lost me the moment she encouraged men to turn mercenary and go fight the Russians.
As someone who got very excited when she got into power. I have generally found the commentary around what she did frustrating. I can't say the same about your analysis. If there is one thing I'd have liked you to maybe have discussed it would be the supply-side reforms she'd planned to help growth. However, what's the point the tax cuts ensured they never got the light of day... If we are sticking to the demand side, there are better options. Probably no one's first, but the regressive tax between 100-125k is a better option if it is about pure principle.
I'd love someone to get in who is set on simplifying our tax code... I know, I sound more deluded than the Truss government 😂
Rishi is cutting tax which is what Liz wanted.
@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr Liz wanted economic growth, she believed certain tax cuts achieve that. I have seen no evidence of tax cuts intended for EG, he's done some TC to help people with the cost of living crisis. There has been no positive effect on economic growth, it has helped maintain the unsustainable for longer
In the us they had a covid like furlough policy, but instead of paying 80% they paid $16 dollars an hour equivalent wage . When the us started coming out of covid lockdown this lead to what was known as as the great resignation as many people refused to go back to their $9 dollars an hour job as they were still receiving the furlough. As a results the shipping docks back up amongst other jobs and companies had to start paying high wages. This cause a massive inflation in America as all this furlough was going out and not as many people were paying back in . This massive inflation was always going to hit the Uk economy and just seemed to hit around the time of liz truss. I say this on the basis that I saw the inflation wave coming and locked my mortgage into a long term deal at a low rate under 1.7% . I told all my family and friends and they did the same. This inflation wave from the us was not reported in the main stream media, if it had been it could have saved many people in the Uk a lot of money and their houses.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
The anti growth coalition of the financial markets, banking industry and international capital conspired against Truss to destroy her legacy. If it were not the pesky free market she would have gotten away with it and this time next year we would all be millionaires.
She cut taxes and tried to increase spending. Which makes no sense. If i had lent the UK money i would worried too.
Think the idea that if you cut taxes this will in turn increase revenue, as shown in the Laffer curve diagram.
Whether this is sensible in a high inflationary environment is debatable.
@@Jesus2030King Clearly not. The market panicked.
According to Stephanie Kelton, this was a case of Liz Truss losing her nerve in the face of Financial Markets flexing. Conservative propoganda relies on the bogeyman of the markets being available to justify ideological austerity implented to complete the transfer of wealth from the 99% to the 1%. No saying that Truss' and Kamakaze Kwantang's was a good idea but I am leaning towards the perspective that the effect of the 'Bond Vigilantes' on sovereign states is massively over-rated.
Surely not, Liz swears it wasn't her fault, it's all due to " woke"😂
@4:40 it is a very english way to say that the markets are morally and politically neutral, they are morally bankrupt and politically neutral between the far-right and centre-right ;)
The 'moron' premium is quite fitting. It would be quite amusing if it wasn't so catastrophic.
The whole economy got 'trussed up' there. 🤦🏻♂️
If it hadn’t been her and had been someone with more personal impact like Johnson or Cameron this may have worked
Agree she comes across as a political lightweight and that did not help.
Tejvan, would you classify yourself as a Heterodox Economist or a Neo-Classical?
Neither really.
@@economicshelp1Hmmm? What does that leave then?
low growth is moot. Most G7 countries have had low growth since the Great Recession.
Not that I like Truss or Kwarteng but they didn't do anything particularly outrageous in their budget. It was a slight push towards old school fiscal conservatism but what it exposed was that (1) Governments are no longer in charge of financial policy (2) Our financial systems can no longer function on their own (basically exposing the markets are dead men walking) (3) Big financial institutions are now reliant on bail outs and demand them.
Trickle down economics was played out in the 80’s under Reagan. We all know how that played out, markets got spooked they knew what the end game was. As for markets and dead walking, we’re trading blocks now, power is in combined numbers, US China, EU. Essentially what Britain did by brexit was trade in the mobile phone for a landline. As for bail out, I’ll give you that, you are right, banks relays on bail out, but heres a history lesson, as the empire fell, it realised that it could still manage the money of the empire while still taking a percentage and Britain dose it well The big wigs realised the failure of trickle down economics would cause reputation of the fine British bank to fall.Trusses mad cap economics, she tilted the entire county’s for the sake of a few hundred billionaires, riots would have broken out mate, mad hatter that lady
With respect, old school conservatism would have been to accompany the tax cuts with spending cuts. Truss and Kwatreng proposed to cover the shortfall with borrowing. That is not conservative policy, it is a blatant and direct transfer of wealth from the state to the rich.
Well yes, but not so much of the 'old school'. It is more modern neoliberal economics. The sort that underpins Right Wing Republican thinking in the States. It leaves the a third of the population to rot and rapidly transfers wealth to the most wealthy companies and individuals.
@@achillesgeroko8714 Fair comment, I suppose they tinkered but didn't overturn the apple cart and still got destroyed by the markets.
Brown dumped austerity on the Tories in 2010...they had the tough job of then balancing the nation's books. Something beyond Labour.
Because the people in charge wanted their man Sunak in.
How can we say Truss policy made interest rates soar, when the inflationary climate was set pre-Truss. Increased interest rates were a result of monetary and fiscal policy years before Truss, what became clear was that Truss appointment was used for further bond buying of the central bank, the wheels of this factor were also set in motion pre-Truss, as the bonds market was already billions into a freefall selloff.
Oh dear God. Global interest rates were indeed rising at the time because of global inflation, but Truss's idiotic policy of suddenly pouring vast amounts of money into a highly inflationary environment meant that financial markets (laughably described later by Truss as Marxist!) meant UK inflation would go exponentially higher, and markets hate really high inflation. If the causes were years before Truss, why did the markets react even while Kwarteng was speaking? I'm sure you can find some reason in your alternative reality bubble.
@@peterroycroftthe markets had already liquidated on the announcement of interest rate hikes a year before Truss appointment, how can you make freefall liquidation significantly worse if the markets were already in a record selloff?? What happened was 'you' swallowed the mere additional blip that the by mainstream media that the central bank wanted you to, again if the bonds market was already in a record selloff, before Truss appointment, how could she make it significantly worse?? It was inevitable that the central bank would print more money to QE more bonds, they just used Truss to make make the additional QE not appear arbitrary at a time that required QT....
Wow the markets reacted on a slight blip in the midst of mass liquidations, hardly a significant subsequent effect, that includes the bond market already in a record selloff before Truss.
The failure is only due to macroeconomic inconsistencies.
2:13 truss or NO truss , interest rates were NEVER going to stay at those levels forever. . Shee got the blame for a lot of things that were going to happen anyway.
WOW! Liz Truss did all that!
Four months ago, the ONS revised GDP figures during her time...and they were £18 billion higher
so her tax cutting policies were actually feasible.
But remarkably, Rishi and Hunty will be cutting taxes again in two weeks, thereby endorsing her agenda.
Something isn't right here. Giving more money to the rich should only fuel inflation on luxury goods because that's what they spend it on. They don't make a mad rush on the supermarkets and stock up on baked beans, so why do prices rise across the board?
Great points, very well presented. Sunak and Hunt are a much safer pair of hands.
Britain is officially in recession. Not so safe hands now.
International finance runs the world.
She MP always against Hon Prime Minister Mr. Sunak she want from her mind being Prime Minister of England
One question off topic, what accent do you have?
How did Liz Truss ever get elected? It was a two horse race between Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordant; then suddenly Liz Truss comes out of nowhere. Seems like a move to manipulate markets.
Only here for Remoaner, comments👍
You see kids you dont have to do well or be brainy to get to a position of power and influence
Awesome. Brilliant content. Not following it yet. Liz Truss she Liberal Democrats then she Tories. She liked by Tory activists Thomas they made her Prime minister. That good point to make Thomas. Support STV voting system for UK general election in England London House of commons. Full PR voting system Welsh local government elections has or will have it.
Compition in England I be Prime Minister similar Pakistan their with Choice Prime Minister ,
The problem was and still is spending, Government spending needs to be reduced by 20%, Welfare needs to have a time limit unless you are disabled. You also needs to contribute for at least 5 years before you can claim any benefits. The UK is drowning in Tax that's why 3,200 high net worth individuals left the Country last year taking their £7billion in taxes with them. There is plenty of money stashed away but nobody is going to put it to work in the UK if its impossible to get a return.
Liz Truss was not "elected Prime Minister" - the UK does not elect PMs, as we vote in MPs, who form parties. The PM is the person commanding a majority in Parliament. Truss was chosen by Tory party members after MPs preferred Rishi Sunak - thus her position was both unconstitutional and unstable. I blame William Hague, who set that system up - he is an idiot.
Look at the growth of private debt!
Almost all new money is now created as debt.
No debt means no new money.
Unless you can get the money back out of treasure island tax havens we’re stuck with using new money.
It’s better the Government creates money out of nothing than private banks do it (ref. Bank of England Q1 2014 Bulletin) and taxes uneven distribution instead of using crude interest rates to control the money supply.
Bonds are not needed to create the money supply. These are not medieval times.
Distribution is the problem but no wealthy individual or group; eg Conservative Party and arguably Labour Party, will deal with that.
Small government cannot do what’s needed, only big grown up democratic governments can do what the people need.
Or they’re out.
Like many Tories Truss did not believe in listening to experts preferring economic fairy tails.
Anoter example of good management by brexit supporter, a litte more like this and UK will suply EU to come back.
Trussd is the worst UK PM ever.
Liz Truss one of Thatcher's children😂
Makes one wonder if Thatcher would have lasted 44 Days if she was around today !
Brexit is the main reason why the UK is struggling so much right in all aspects. The so called benefis of Brexit hasn't been realised yet or may not be even realised in the future. People, think from an investors and businessmen point of view and explain why they should do business/invest in UK right now when they can easily do their business in the European union. Why should any businessmen and investors be limited to only UK when they can access a bigger market with simpler rules and regulations. If the UK wishes to stabilize their economy again, then rejoining the EU is a must without which there is very little hope of a good future for everyone. Period 😎😎😎
Don’t you mean 3 wars and not one MPs that doesn’t serve themselves and stealing money to contracts and family members
Agreed, but their austerity measures and economic illiteracy has pretty much trashed the economy too.
There's little hope of a good future for the French, Germans, or Italians right now.
Be a while before this will get public support and it has all party support, without which the EU isnt interested.
We still have working hospitals in France @@stuartwray6175
You're way too kind to Truss and Kwarteng.You should try analysing their REAL motives. But like most, you dont want to go there. Actualy, I do believe that you know better than to peddle this BS. Fascism here we come.
2nd
1st
This is all because of the sins that you all had committed cruely.