Costs of Leaving Single Market - Is it Time to Rejoin?
Vložit
- čas přidán 29. 05. 2024
- A look at costs of leaving the single market and customs unions. Should UK try to rejoin over time.
0:00 Intro
0:59 Rejoin Single Market?
1:30 Costs of Brexit
3:28 Costs to Households
4:40 Free Movement
6:34 Public Services
7:12 Problem of Rejoining
9:04 Custom Unions
10:25 Northern Ireland
Sources
www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/...
www.camecon.com/what/our-work...
www.ft.com/content/78d3611e-a...
www.rsmuk.com/insights/weekly... - impact of 1% cut in income tax rate £5.2bn
www.eurofound.europa.eu/en/re...
www.ft.com/content/ffac65e1-1...
www.newstatesman.com/politics...
yougov.co.uk/politics/article...
obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the...
► Please SUBSCRIBE!
► UK Economy - czcams.com/users/economicshe...
► Global Economy - www.youtube.com/@EconomicsHel...
ABOUT
-----------
► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
► Economic Short Cuts amzn.to/3IgxupC
► 50 Essential Economic Ideas amzn.to/3IgxndG
► Cracking Economics. www.economicshelp.org/shop/cr...
► What Would Keynes Do? Amazon amzn.to/2xShqq4
► Economics Without the Boring Bits amzn.to/48T1hA9
The Tories will do many things, they will never admit to making a mistake
Which mistake?
I think this applies to any party.
@@hughjohns9110 LOL that's the problem, there are so many!?! But they could at least try a "Top 10".
@@jonb5493 he must be referring to a specific one, which one?
@@travellingtom6091 of course it does.
From Europe: out is out. Bye
I understand you pose the question of rejoining because you're looking at this from a strictly economic perspective, however, the most prescient question, politically speaking, is whether they would even let us rejoin. They certainly have every reason to be skeptical and resentful towards us. We constantly hindered EU integration whilst in the club, despite having quite literally the best deal on the European table and we caused each of the member countries a gargantuan headache when we decided to up and leave. If they even entertain the idea of us rejoining, it will likely not be any time soon (so as to give us a long time to think on our actions and suffer the consequences of it properly) and will most certainly not offer the same deal we had before (most notably and exclusion from Schengen and the maintenance of our own independent currency in Sterling). It is likely that the UK will continue to suffer the consequences of our collective stupidity for years to come
Well said. Almost what I have commented, elsewhere here!
They'd probably put us on probation for quite some time. I wouldn't actually listen too much to the very vociferous rabid haters of the BREEETEEESH: in fact most EU politicians would want us back, and the majority of EU citizens would find the idea a bit puzzling but rather boring. Actually, while a member the UK did contribute to the development of the institutions and the legal framework, and also having 2 large countries as counterweights, rather than one, was considered really desirable by both France and Germany. One of the bigger problems is that the EU we'd join (as a "junior" member maybe, maybe 10 years from now) would be very different to the EU we left 4 years ago. Other countries still have their own currency. And not all are part of Schengen. And many EU politicians evoke the idea of a "multiple speed" Europe.
Skeptical YES, resentful NO
EU citizens do not have the kind of extreme self-applauding, or extreme lack of consideration of others. Besides, they do not have extreme media who spread hate all over the place as English media do. They speak out a certain amount of skepticism, but never hatred.
Rejoining: Why does UK not take one step or two back and look deeply into its whole system to recognise whether or not UK's goals are suitable for EU's purposes. The EU is here not just for economic purpose, dear British friends. So now if you all just consider rejoining to rescue your economy, that will lead to another future BREXIT due to your internal problems. The UK as a whole and its economic thurst is absolutely not fit into EU system.
One side has the right to apply for membership, the other side has the right to veto. (and plus, EU membership criteria are here to stay) Then that will lead to more hatred towards the EU being spat out by British media. The British critical thinking is already on its knee now so the more hatred being spat out, the "merrier" on the British side.
One best solution (in my absolutely not biased opinion) is: The UK breaks and each member decides for her-/himself what to do - Rejoin or Not!
I have commented elsewhere in this thread. So, I will make this a brief comment.
The U.K. brought a lot to the EU on many different fronts. Not as the Great British rescuer, but as an equal partner with different strengths and contributions. There is great relief in the Science and Tech. development sectors that the U.K is again participating in the joint reasearch programs. Though the Tories dragged their feet on funding that for a long time.
Those at the political heart of the EU wanted us to remain.
A core principal of the EU is that we are all stronger together.
Skeptical YES, resentful NO
EU citizens do not have the kind of extreme self-applauding, or extreme lack of consideration of others. Besides, they do not have extreme media who spread hate all over the place as English media do. They speak out a certain amount of skepticism, but never hatred.
Rejoining: Why does UK not take one step or two back and look deeply into its whole system to recognise whether or not UK's goals are suitable for EU's purposes. The EU is here not just for economic purpose, dear British friends. So now if you all just consider rejoining to rescue your economy, that will lead to another future BREXIT due to your internal problems. The UK as a whole and its economic thirst is absolutely not fit into EU system. One side has the right to apply for membership, the other side has the right to veto. (and plus, EU membership criteria are here to stay) Then that will lead to more hatred towards the EU being spat out by British media. The British critical thinking is already on its knee now so the more hatred being spat out, the "merrier" on the British side.
One best solution (in my absolutely not biased opinion) is: The UK breaks and each member decides for her-/himself what to do - Rejoin or Not!
A per capita recession is a real recession, it doesn't just feel like a real recession, It's a recession. Don't just set your financial goals without consulting a financial adviser. Their expertise ensure a solid plan for success. Building wealth involves developing good habits like regular putting money away in intervals for solid investments.
Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start.Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners?
How can I participate in this?I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate.who is the driving force behind your success?.
Maria Ann Treloar is the licensed coach I use.just research the name .You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
My two professionally managed funds have lost a packet in recent years, as has just about everyone else. Last time (two years ago) l put aside £20k over the year l lost the lot. Why? Because UK stock has lost value because of effing Brexit. It has recovered a little this year but both funds worth about £100k four years ago are now worth about £85k
@@jontalbot1 I understand your frustration! Sorry to hear that your investments have taken a hit. It's true that Brexit has caused a lot of uncertainty in the UK stock market, leading to a decline in value. market fluctuations are normal.
It only takes 1 of the 27 to veto UK rejoining.
😮
I think the commission is working to do away with veto powers.
i trust in the French, to keep the English away for the next 50 years!
That is that!!!
You do not understand how the EU works. It is not politically possible for one country to block the clear will of the others. Nor is it even likely. The awkward squad are East Europeans- precisely the countries who appreciate the UKs strong support for Ukraine and who are the biggest beneficiaries of EU funds. Britain was the second largest net contributor after Germany and would be again.
The question of UK rejoining EU in the near future is hypothetical because it does not comply with the Copenhagen criteria to be able to apply for membership.
Can UK bring its debt down to closer to 60% of GDP than 100+%? Is the country ready to join the Schengen and adopt the Euro as soon as convergence criteria are reached?
What about adherence to closer political, economical and monetary union? All of those are Criteria that UK need to comply with.
The actual process of joining, after the EU commission has reviewed the application and the EU council has given unanimous consent is not about negotiation over what UK wants. It is a process split up in 6 clusters with some 35 chapters about implementing the EU´s acquis communitaire and only that.
No opt outs or rebates.
The EU Acquis is the total body of EU's legal system and rules which are in force.
The EU acquis has been constantly evolving. It includes the founding treaties of the EU, those that amend them, secondary legislation (directives, regulations, decisions), treaties signed with the third countries, the decisions of the European Court of Justice etc. In addition, legally-binding or non-binding acts/proceedings that were adopted within the EU framework, i.e. inter-institutional agreements, resolutions, notifications, recommendations, guiding principles, joint actions, common attitudes, declarations, conclusion proclamations and other acts that were adopted within the framework of foreign security and defence policy, common attitudes, signed contracts, resolutions, proclamations and other acts that were adopted within the framework of justice and home affairs are also part of the acquis.
Furthermore, international treaties that were concluded between the European Communities/the EU or European Communities/the EU and member states and international treaties that were concluded by member states regarding the Union's activities/operations are included in the acquis.
The six clusters are:
1.Fundamentals
2.Internal market
3.Competitivness and inclusive growth
4.Green agenda and sustainable connectivity
5.Resources, agriculture and cohesion
6.External relations
The 35 chapters are:
1- Free movement of goods
2- Freedom of movement for workers
3- Right of establishment and freedom to provide services
4- Free movement of capital
5- Public procurement
6- Company law
7- Intellectual property law
8- Competition policy
9- Financial services
10- Information society and media
11- Agriculture and rural development
12- Food safety, veterinary and phytosanitary policy
13- Fisheries
14- Transport policy
15- Energy
16- Taxation
17- Economic and monetary policy
18- Statistics
19- Social policy and employment
20- Enterprise and industrial policy
21- Trans-European networks
22- Regional policy and coordination of structural instruments
23- Judiciary and fundamental rights
24- Justice, freedom and security
25- Science and research
26- Education and culture
27- Environment
28- Consumer and health protection
29- Customs union
30- External relations
31- Foreign, security and defense policy
32- Financial control
33- Financial and budgetary provisions
34- Institutions
35- Other issues
They all need to be closed with consent of all memberstates.
The accession treaty has to be ratified by all parliaments in EU inclusive the EU parliament.
You are being very factual. But that's not what most Britons here want to hear. They want to be confirmed in their idea the the UK's return to the EU will be a matter of a few years and all that is needed is asking nicely. Since the UK can't be missed, is a huge contributor, large economy, needed for unity, all that. When in reality the UK isn't missed all that much, the EU functions just as well without the UK. The UK left in a very unpleasant way, burning many diplomatic bridges in the process and proved to be an unreliable ex-partner: more than 3 years since Brexit and the UK still has not implemented the agreed upon custom checks. Why would the EU want to take risks with a second UK membership? Once bitten, twice shy.
@@maartenaalsmeer they are a bunch of dillusional alright.
This video talks about re-joining the single market, not re-joining the EU. I'm afraid UK has lost any chances of sitting at the top table for decades. Not surprising since it was the will of the British people back in 2016.
@@marksimons8861 But the only way to join the SM is by joining the EU. Other options are not available. Though many Britons still think there are cherry-picking options to be had here.
@@maartenaalsmeer Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland belong to the single market. If we pay enough the EU will find a way.
Many thanks for this informative video! 😊
We would never get such good terms as we had - not joining the euro, not being in Schengen.
EU goon.
You did not address one important area (and what I believe Brexit was really about) - new EU rules to stamp out money laundering and tax avoidance in the banking system. This would effectively destroy the City of London which is the only sector propping up the UK's failing economy.
ONE HUNDRED PERCENT CORRECT. Mind boggling how the media ignored this. No more secret offshore Trusts would be a deathblow to the UK elite. Tax's are for the little people.
This is nonsense. If that was the issue we would simply apply the Veto would we not?
@@paullarneIts an issue for the establishment - not for the masses. So it has to be handled with discretion.
Completely untrue much as l deplore both. You simply do not know what goes on in the City
In financial circles, that is exactly the reason I hear. Londongrad would be toast with the latest anti fraud regs out of Brussels.
James Dyson, a #Brexit supporter who believed that Britain would become "Singapore-on-Thames" after leaving the European Union but relocated his own headquarters to Singapore shortly after Brexit, as an investment advisor, he is now urging investors to flee Britain as quickly as possible since the country is devolving into a scorched earth.
he is a real Tory, he likes money over his country!
i will never buy a dyson product again, what a to$$er he has become.
Dyson is a prat. His sole innovation has been to take the technology of extractor fans and replace vacuum suction. Good at marketing mind. And he doesn’t need to discourage investors in the UK. That has been happening on a massive scale since 2016. That will change only when a new government signals its intention to rejoin the single market
isn’t he back in the UK now?
@@shaun906 so you did bought some in the past, bro you got scammed 🤣🤣🤣
How much was the yearly membership for free trade ? And how much did it cost us to leave? Rejoin after all that?
Kudos. You deserve to be on a much larger platform.
Norway option and join EFTA. It's the deal that should have been done by Cameron originally.
apparently our economy is bigger than all the members put together, so it would adversely affect their membership. a may's soft brexit might have worked but the ERG prevented that.
no the uk should not go for unskiled migration, the uk is finally getting pay rises if you have more unlimited migration wages will go down again.
Joining EFTA means we have the same reasons why we left though?
_Norway option and join EFTA_ Members Norway and Iceland stated numerous times that the UK is *not* welcome in EFTA. Too big and too unruly a fish for their small pond.
Rejoin? The UK can apply for membership just like other countries can. No exceptionalism. And btw no rebate and opt-outs either.
It is definitely not a good idea to rejoin the eu, and even the Germans are talking about Leaving it. The eu is run like a dictatorship and must be radically changed to make a real parliament and not just an authoritarian juggernaut. It’s not about what money we might make in it.
Awesome. Brilliant content. Spot on. Well said.
Great video
The problem with this question is economics is not the only thing to consider. We didn't leave with the expectation of financial gain after all.
You are absolutely right. You didn't leave with the expectation of financial gain after all but with the expectation of tearing the EU completely down to have another "EU-like union" with British power only.
@@johannagarda I'm pretty sure the British public voted to leave an organisation which is not fully accountable to them. Lets stick to logic rather than feelings please.
@@johannagarda We left in order to chart our own course in the World as we were not in agreement with the one the EU had in mind for us. Had the EEC continued as it was I don't believe we would have left it, but the cetralisation and control freakery became too much in the end.
You are completely missing the point. It’s not 2016 and just as happened prior to the 75 vote, we are experiencing lower economic growth than other European countries. Maybe that is not everything but it’s the most part of everything
@@jontalbot1 Our growth is actually higher now than some EU countries - eg Germany - and our growth has never been in sync with EU countries as our economy is simply not the same. That in itself is a reason not to be in the EU. We are in the process of doing more business with countries that have higher growth than the EU wich seems the right way to go.
Leaving was pure insanity. We had a veto and our own sovereign currency. If we rejoin we are unlikely to get either.
You bet on that 🤣👍
Insanity in 2016 not in 10 years time Germany is going broke and we all know how the Germans are when they are unhappy
@@nofiltersenzafiltro9596 outreaching 😇
Those benefits would have eventually been taken anyway as the EU is on its intended path of ever increasing federalism.
I think the upcoming EU election will See a strong Shift to the conservative side
Rejoining will not fix fundamental issues . U.K. has issues with productivity and this needs to be fixed with attracting right companies and promoting innovation at right levels . If U.K. thinks it’s already doing it then cool
Er, major reason for low productivity is low investment, especially since 2016 for some reason. This will start to improve the moment Rachel Reeves announces moves to rejoin the Single Market
No it will not fix everything over night but it will put us back on the right path
@@jontalbot1hmm not going to happen isn’t it . If you ask me they will take in Scotland first before taking in the mainland . Scotland got several things right which the mainland did not for several years now.
Till then pay the taxes pay the price and chill or people below 50 move to the growing regions or run startups
@@suds782 What are you trying to say?
But it would help gaining investments, a strong pound, more elasticity in the labour market, better trade deals (the EU did with New Zealand, the Philippines and Kenya will be next), higher tax income to tackle the NHS waiting lists and infrastructure, also projects like Copernicus and horizon would be included in a membership fee. Also the investment in Ai, new technologies and chip manufacturing would be beneficial
It's not just the single market,it's all the restrictions that you have to accept with it
Not many people really thought this out..With only a 37% turnout is it possible to have a 2nd Referendum?..problem with rejoining is we’d have to go in fully including the single currency..l can’t see that happening for a long time..
I must admit to voting yes to joining the EEC. Now I must admit to voting yes to leaving the EU. I never voted for the economic block, known as the EEC to become a political block now known as the EU. I will always oppose re-joining until it reverts to an economic block.
USA is a Federation, Canada too, so is Australia and Germany too whats your problem ?.
UK is a rule taker now. EU rules. If it’s OK for you, it’s absolutely OK for us
I don’t see what’s wrong with the EU evolving to what it is today?
The EEA option is the economic block option you're talking about.
In 1975, Labour was against political integration, while the Tories were in favour of business in the EEC. Today, it is exactly the other way round.
The Labour Party's historical Euroscepticism, dating back to Clement Attlee's era, influences its reluctance to reapply for EU membership.
This sentiment was evident in various party conferences, including a 1980 vote where 71% of Labour delegates supported leaving the EEC, making Brexit, as it is now known, Labour Party policy.
Additionally, the NEC endorsed "withdrawal" as official Labour Party policy in 1981, with 84% of delegates voting in favour of leaving the EEC.
The Tories also have a history of Euroscepticism, especially under Margaret Thatcher and her increasing scepticism towards the European project and the party's opposition to further European integration, as evidenced by their stance during the Maastricht era and the dramatic failure of UK membership in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
Finally, UK media coverage and its Eurosceptic discourse and framing have further contributed to political dynamics and public sentiment towards EU.
1:04 When comparing the UK with Germany, people on the British side always forget that Germany is much richer than the UK and people in Germany earn a lot more with a moderate cost of living. Even the poor are richer than poor people in the UK. Germany also has universal health care but no waiting lists. There is free education, cheap public transport and the unemployment rate is lower than in Britain. Germany is not a land of milk and honey, but the people are far better off than the British. The slight recession that both countries are currently experiencing is not hitting the Germans as hard as the Brits.
I watch these videos to cheer myself up
distributed finance & governance network > centralised finance & governance network
as sovereign nations we must be able to hold our government employees to account
We did. Through our elected governments and to a lesser extent the euro parliament.
Because they are sovereign nations choosing to share some of the sovereignty so the big nations and blocks don't dominate us.
You need more real politik and less philosophy.
We live in a time of rising multi-national corporate power that is completely unaccountable to anyone except its billionaire owners and largest shareholders.
Countries not cooperating to rein in corporate power is where you lead to businesses determining the laws of your country rather than the people. In America this is increasingly already the case.
but you are not sovereign under a Troy government!
and there isnt any way for a Tory to be accountable!
To start with a politician has got to get up in parliament and admit it didnt work out as planned and i can't see that ever happening.
Just paid £90 duty and clearance on UPS for a package from Spain. Thank you sausage roll munching, GB News watching villagers.
The shame of going back to Europeans , defeated & insulted this is what politicians made of UK
Aren't Britons Europeans? Did the island drift off?
Well it's a bit deaf to compare to the German economy cos the USA effed up the economy of Germany big time.
They blew up nord stream gas pipeline, and Germany was very very reliant on the energy supply from Russia, especially with them closing most of their nuclear plants since the nuclear disaster in Japan a few years ago.
So Germany would have been in way way better shape if they would have had the necessary energy to maintain their economy.
There is no way for the UK to join the EU Single Market at present. Regrets, however deep or truthful, are not going to solve the issues that the Leave vote brought upon us. We are going to be worst off for more than two decades. And if the EU changes its structure, we might be able to get closer to our closest (both geographically and culturally) partners and allies.
short answer: Yes.
Long answer: Yyyyeeeeeessssss.
What was the cost of being in Europe for 40 plus years? I recall that the UK was almost completely deindustrislised during that period, whilst German industry, for example was among the strongest in the world.
The name is "Globalization" that same formula that the US embraced so enthusiastically and that now try to repair
Blame Margaret for that. Germans did not close British industry and mines.
Germans are not guilty for demise of British car industry, they did not build Morris Marina.
Yeah blame the EU for something a Tory did. Good Tory tactic
We've always been in Europe, the continent :). Please know the difference between basic geography and a political union. Thanks.
Brexit vote was 52% vs 48% in an advisory referendum. Treated as gospel.
General election 43% vote for ERG/Tories and 57% vote for parties offering a second referendum. Result? Tory majority and hard Brexsh#t.
How that system can be described as logical is beyond me.
Its worse. Since 72% of the electorate bothered to vote in the ref, correcting for that 52:48 turns out 37:35. So just over a third of the electorate have f***d the country by believing the xenophobic lies peddled by Farage, Johnson, UKIP, Leave EU, the Tory Party, the billionaire-owned right wing press.
The brexit vote was clearly 70%+, not just according to me but whistleblowers. they kept it as 52/48 because the establishment wanted to stay in. I already don't pay tax since the lockdowns & injectables but I certainly wouldn't renege on that if I knew it was going to the EU who want to go to war with russia
Lol, we won't rejoin out of embarrasement.
Bit like Mark getting married from Peep Show.
Love peep show
But he’s still letting loads of them in,and we’ve got barely any room left.
I wonder at this. I am not pro or con because I don't know enough. But I keep thinking that perhaps the issues around Brexit look really bad because it happened at a terrible time; Covid and all the stuff that happened with that. I wonder if, with time the issues will not be resolved? As I said, I am not an expert so I am not saying yes or no, wiser people will perhaps say that. I do notice that even the EU is not doing stunningly well, so while Im sure there will be benefits, I am not sure how long they would last. I think perhaps we need to focus on the British economy and making decisions based on what is best for the economy and perhaps a lot of the issues will fade away, I cannot see how it would be impossible for a country to succeed outside of the EU because most of the world does. Perhaps its just bad decisions being made that have little relationship to Brexit? Migrants, too much money printed during Covid? I don't know but I feel the case is perhaps less clear cut than people make it out to be. Perhaps we just need to be patient and work hard on making wiser economic decisions? The current government does seem to be rather rudderless and to have few ideas that could make the UK economy prosper but I'm not too sure the other parties do either. We seem to be stuck with weak leaders with no ability to lead.
What makes people think EU would let us back in is that we were always the problem child.
Is any of this a surprise to anyone? Like a car accident in slow motion.
An example has to be made
I disagree that comparing our growth to other economies is a bad way to measure the impact of brexit. From 2010 to 2016 our GDP growth outstripped that of Germany and France. In 2024 our GDP growth is still ahead of France and Germany. HOWEVER, the is a definite trend that the margine of difference is decreasing and going in reverse.
_"Is it Time to Rejoin"_ - The arrogance of that question is staggering. That is not up to the UK to decide.
Rejoining doesn't exist. The UK would have to undergo a complete new procedure of becoming a member state. This would take years to negotiate and without regaining the former privileges.
It's not being realized that Brexit allowed Pound to depreciate making many industries to survive, else they could not have survived tied to expensive Euro in the single bloc. Nevertheless UK. stays a preferred location of stay
UK is a rule taker now. EU rules. If it’s OK for them , it’s absolutely OK for us
The EU is not only an economic system anymore: it also strengthened its requirements for democracy. The latter to fight "potential" anti-democratic activities in countries which joined later. The UK, in its current legal and elective systems, cannot join. Modernizing those into "constitution based" and "one-man-one-vote" will not happen in the near future. Joining the EEA or even Schengen may be possible.
I think Brexit was a stupid idea but rejoining EU is also not wise. You end up inferior to the original status. People don't understand how much power UK had in the EU with veto right and keeping it's own currency. No chance of those if UK rejoins
I know. The leave campaign was very convincing, mind you it was fraught with lies. The remain campaign were just not enthusiastic enough.
The EU does not want Britain back as we deemed to leave even though the EU would be greatful for our money and we would not be able to reobtain the same arrangements and benefits that Brtain ha we we let and we will have to jion the Eurpean currany money program, and Britain would not do this because we ard a Sovereign nation state with the King as Head of state on our currency and oes.not to be a second Norway. So where does this leave us ?
That's all great if Brexit was just about economics. However, it was about a lot more than just economics.
£ 200 B per annum in lost revenue, £ 100 B in tax revenues, and 5% of GDP lost due to Brexit. Manufacturing, fishing, and farming have collapsed.
Why would anyone in EU want the UK back, after its behaviour for 4 decades? Besides, rejoining is not UK's God given right! UK was a constant pest when a member. Why on earth would old members of the club want the UK back, unless the UK is a star superpower, which it is not? Spain will almost certainly use its veto to bargain for Gibralter, or Scotland could use it's veto, if it gets Indy before that!
Well maybe spin would like to step up some more and a up port ukraine or had you forgotten the uk support. The eu also has a big problem with orban. You have a very elitist viewpoint and a complete lack of regard for the fact that only a quarter voted for it and that they were lied to. A bit of compassion wouldn't go amiss
Because the U.K. brought a lot to the EU technologically, service sector and scientifically. Additionally our military configuration filled in the gaps in the EU overall military composition.
@@bereal6590Contrary to your accusation of being elitist, it is simple common-sense fact based observation. The train crash that we're witnessing today, should not bother me, if I am an elitist. These are not my figures! ONS predicted 5% loss to GDP, (best case model) and it has proven right. On the other hand, why wouldn't brexiteers eat humble pie and say sorry for the irreparable damage that they've inflicted to the economy?
It was actually less than a quarter that voted. It is 17% to be precise. Remainers warned and Economists rang the alarm bells. It was branded as project fear.
We have been giving the EU billions since we supposedly left, and all the other money we are pi**ing up the wall on illegal immigration etc.we seem to have plenty of money to waste. Brexit was sabotaged.
Also, UK would have to join Schengen and peg the pound to EURO. Until UK has support for these 2 things, EU will not agree to let UK in.
This is like saying that the sports car you bought is useless when all you did was slash the tyres and park it in a field.
1. You paid too much for it in a botched negotiation (May)
2. You didn't prepare for it (May again)
3. You were so desperate that you took it without the steering wheel (Boris)
4. Your partner said they'd go along with it but then did everything possible to scupper the deal (Parliament)
5. The rest of the family vandalised it (civil service)
6. The neighbours were constantly criticising (media)
7. When you got it you didn't use it i.e. you didn't change ANY of the bureaucracy and rules that you could now change (and had promised to do so) - (all of the above + Kemi etc.)
a. Not even to save local industries and jobs (Bye bye Tata steel)
The benefits may not have materialised but can anyone claim that we gave it our honest, competent, best effort to make it anything other than BRINO?
Sounds like you fell for it, hook line and sinker. No mention of the fact that exporters to the EU would risk their product being ineligible if they didn't conform to EU regs.
40%+ of product types disappeared from our exports because the extra paperwork made them unprofitable.
If you acknowledge that the process was botched and the benefits never materialised, then you have to accept that a conversation about closer EU ties would be pragmatic, no?
I suspect many countries in the EU would gladly keep us out .
Rejoining? Like everything else about Britons, there's a lot of arrogance and exceptionalism in this concept. Like if rejoining was just a UK decision. It isn’t; it it’s a EU decision. What UK could do is to apply. And it would be a long process, because now we don’t trust UK anymore, so if this ever happen it would be at very strict set of agreements. No cherrypicking this time. But to be fair I don’t think this would happen this century
We know it isn't a UK decision. We know we would have to apply and see what happens. The bad behaviour you're regarding to stems from the corrupt tory government. They are naturally euro sceptic. I'm sure there are some euro sceptic/right wing political parties in the EU states, too?
@@rayc9539 Maybe some Britons know that this is a UE decision, but a large part don't. I saw this in countless comments. The typical attitute that led to brexit repeated again and again and again. Now we know what the large part of britons actually think. The euroscepticism exists in the EU but it's far from being something like the tidde of hate that we saw during brexit. The last time in Italy a real eurosceptic party ran for elections barely reached the 2% of votes. Right now we've got a right government, and our premier is "eurosceptic", but in a very different way than in the UK. She's working very well with Ursula von der Leyen and there's NOT even a feeble idea to leave the Union, in her case it's just a way to maintain alive a national identity. Just imagine this: our "eurosceptic" government wants a joint European Army and a unified Defense Policy.
Germany is a social case due to the impact of terminating Russian energy following the war in Ukraine. It would be rather like the U.K. having North Sea gas and oil suddenly turned off. From that perspective the Germans have done rather well.
A super majority will not apply to the unification of Ireland, the GFA states clearly 50% of votes plus 1.
you have to see it from our side,
the Brits are gone and we dont feel a difference!
I believe that the momentum of our country towards decline has reached a critical mass, and that our once glorious country is rattling slowly and steadily towards corrouption and poverty. Our public services will collapse and privatise, our schools will continue to decline in education standards and the new generations will be less effective. Police will continue to fail to punish small crime and it will remain effectively decriminalised. Our roads will crumble under our cars and RTAs will rapidly increase. Inflation rates will remain high while the government does nothing to curb the structural issues, and GDP will slide backwards into a long depression.
The cruel joke is at this point I've given up and would be looking at jumping ship, but thanks to a certain braindead contingency my free movement throughout Europe has slipped through my fingers.
UK has to join SCHENGEN too. UK can keep the pound but it has to be pegged to EURO.
thats what caused black wednesday .... ERM.
You cannot peg your currency AND be sovereign.
Why is that a bad thing? Schengen is just no border control with eu? It won’t happen anyway as Ireland is not in Schengen
Only because UK was not in Schengen.@@dunnomate3587
@@dunnomate3587 Ireland did not join Schengen because of UK and GFA. So UK will have to join Schengen. Ireland decides and UK has to follow. UK should follow Ireland's wishes of joining Schengen or not.
So before applying to join EU, UK should clearly and explicitly state that it will join Schengen if Ireland and EU want that.
I never said it is a bad thing or a good thing. I am just saying that UK should agree to join Schengen. Then Ireland and EU will decide what UK have to do.
They would let the uk back in. On one term. We adopt the euro and drop the pound
No.
🏴❤️🇪🇺
Whilst I am English and voted to remain, I particularly feel sorry for the Scots.
Woo there be careful Julian. You wouldn’t want that statement to be thought of a as a hate crime would you. Your precious SNP has that all sown up and police Scotland will be down on you like a ton of bricks.
Yes
Helllllllllllll no!!
We were safer in the EU. Our Human Rights were protected, our Farmers were protected and treated fairly.London’s economy has shrunk by more than £30billion. London has £290,000 fewer jobs since Brexit with a total of £2million job losses nationwide.The Mayor of London said that the cost of Brexit to the UK £140 billion Brexit is a ‘key contributor’ to the current cost of living crisis. The mis management of our taxes and corruption has also contributed. Not forgetting the devaluation of our currency by the over printing of money.Our political system under the Conservatives is now not fit for purpose,it’s an absolute shambles. I strongly believe that we should re join the EU and hopefully we will get the UK up and running again. The decisions being made under our Government to make trade deals with Australia and America is not benefitting UK citizens. Britain is on a path to complete destruction if we don’t rejoin the EU.
"get the UK up and running again"???? Britain has not made a fiscal surplus since 2000. That's 19 years of EU membership and every year borrowing to make ends meet. Take off your rose tinted glasses when you try looking back at the past
Australia trade deal benefit is a rounding error. 0% per annum predicted to 2035.
Guys, this is a bot. You can see this in the back row of numbers
which is generated automatically. It's always the same incitement.
The conservatives are too delusional to see what we all see. You're right, they need to be ejected from parliament ASAP.
NO!
Its better in the eu since uk left.
There is no such thing as rejoining.
There is paragraph 49.
Read it.
🇪🇺🇳🇱
If you mean Article 49 of the Copenhagen agreement?
There is nothing in that which restricts re-application.
Most people use the term 'rejoining' as a synonym for 're-application' in order to join.
@@kevinu.k.7042 but it also says you dont have a right to join!
so i just hope the French will stop the English to come back for a minimum of another 50 years!
@@Arltratlo Your personal politics are of little relevance here.
@@kevinu.k.7042 like the wishes of and from the UK??
you are right, nobody cares what they want!
It appears we have a coterie of trolls replying to my post.
This is an economics channel. Not a place for narrow minded personal political ventilation.
Enjoy yourselves.
Your punching the air.
The only arguments I have ever heard are economic ones but nobody is really talking about alternative ways we can run our country. personally we are better out of it in all other ways and if the country is actually run properly the EU won't matter so much in economic terms. Further the biggest changes which we were not asked for a vote on was joining the 'EU' (and not the EEC) that has had far reaching implications for working people.
And what does running the country actually involve? Let me guess…the government owns everything
Explain these alternative ways we can run our country that would make us better out of the EU.
There are so many better advantage to being in the EU then economic, politically Britain has a bigger say on European and even world matters in the EU, we are a part of European science education transport energy and climate schemes working together, we get freedom of movement back to live study and work anywhere in Europe, we are safer and have more rights with eu worker and environmental rights ect ect, all we have done so far is make these things worse outside the eu not better, we are really better as one
If only people listened to experts hey. Our best short term option is to be a rule taker and suck it up.
We are not rule takers of course, that's just EU delusionism.
Leaving the EU was the best decision the UK ever made. Thankfully, rejoining is not an option right now and won't be for many years. If there is ever another referendum with the prospect of rejoining, then I agree we should only do so if there is a huge super-majority. How about a thwo-thirds majority?
Not a single GCSE in sight
@@matthewphillips3158 I don't have any GCSEs: they are before my time. I am a retired linguistics professor and I have worked for several establishments including two Swedish universities. I have a PhD in my specialism.
Sorry for voting leave guys :/
Have you not noticed the EU going broke ?
We can all thank Boris for pulling us out of the single market along with his lies!!!
Stop dreaming. A return to the SM means a new membership. That is not going to happen in at least a generation.
The EU is not perfect, but its objectives are right: peace, cooperation to make peoples life better and safe. The UK could have helped to make this happen. It chose not to.
Boris said "Get Brexit Done" in 2019, he stood on that platform. 56.4% voted against the proposition.
It seems Johnson and Farage will soon get a monument for the posterity.
The UK is once again, a free, sovereign / Independent country. We are free. Let's keep it that way :)
Free to immediately join another trading block, smaller, along way away and with all its own rules made with no input from the UK. Well done.
@@Rosbif06600 Latest UK Exports position UK as 4th largest exporter in the world woooohooo :)
I really wish you were able to address a much larger audience, but then brexiteers don’t listen to experts
Yes, like the experts who instructed us to take untested covid vaccines and shut down society for no good reason. Those experts?
This is just another example of Brexit being used as a scapegoat for Britain's difficulties in a time of world recession.
In 2016 the people of Britain were given the opportunity, by referendum, to say whether or not thwy wanted the nation to leave the European Union and the majority said they did. It was a public mandate to the government but the government, sadly, took seven years to fulfill the instruction.
And here we see that old chestnut rolled out yet again.
Sorry, but worn out, hackneyed old moans carry no weight. Britain left the EU. Live with it!
We voted to not me an EU member, not leave the single market. That was a tory decision because they were blindsided about the benefits and wanting to utilise brexit freedoms. They are a corrupt party which have only been in power for so long because of first past the post.
The leave campaign was fraught with lies and deceit. We were often told that our place in the single market would not be jeopardised. It is primarily a tory government issue.
No way. Once out you are out
Yeap one way ticket
Indeed, we're never coming back. Why would we? EU12 in 1993 #1 in the world 30% of GDP (US 29%). EU27 in 2024 14% of World GDP, #4 after US, China and CPTPP.
@@paullarneEurope has had its economic boom a century before the US and China, the quality of life in Europe is still far better than both. The uk cannot get anything like it bad in the SM with china or US so what’s the point of staying out? We’re better united than divided and alone
@@dunnomate3587 The EEC was the way to go, it worked well, at least once Mrs Thatcher had sorted out the finances. But the EU is a Frankenstein's Monster of Centralised control, undemocratic practices that the UK just can't be part of. We are joining a Trade only body that is actually bigger than the EU and that's a way forward for us.
Trade deals? Reclaim India
Let me preface my comment by saying "The UK should have remained".
But.. realistically the benefits of Brexit were never gonna be short term. If the UK continues to live by EU rules after leaving that's like having the worst of both worlds. The whole point of leaving is that there is regulatory space now to explore other (hopefully more efficient) ways of doing things without being tied down to Brussels bureaucracy which can be quite sluggish. Yes in the short term UK food department would have to set up new standards and protocols but the whole point is that these standards can tie into other regions like North America. Yes the UK is most certainly worse off in the short term but for the long term it really depends on how Britain plays it's hand now that it has all the power in the world to govern itself in whatever way it chooses.
There is no rejoining. We can apply to join like any other third country. First, however, we will have to regain the trust of our European neighbours.
Which the tories tarnished!
Can UK not join EU again? What are the chances and issues?
No ukraine moldova serbia bosnia albania have to join before lol what a shit show
Of course not. Out is out.
Sour grapes
Brexit saved the (European) union
thanks, but no
I can answer that. Yes, rejoin.
To be fair, for many people, leaving the EU was not a purely economic decision. Once we have a free trade deal with the US and India all will be well :)
That will never come, Mate.
India wants a million IT & student visas. Plus India wants UK to apologise for it's colonialism and sins and return the loot, especially the stolen crown jewels.
India wants the UK to allow Indians free access to settle in the UK. The US wants to export its agriculture products (beef with growth hormones etc) and take out the NHS. There will be deal with either
Did you see the EU now have a free trade deal with India?😂 Leaving the EU was stupid.
@@matthewphillips3158try telling that to the tory government.
Imagine having one of the messiest divorces ever and then deciding you want things to go back to the way they were. Fat chance 🤣
Is this clever? Forgeting doing business with EU on your door step ans having a trade deal with New Zeland on the other site of the world?
oops! sad loser convention - I'm out of here...
the UK will never rejoin, England or Scotland might.
No Way should we rejoin. Make leaving work, instead of making it like it's a disaster. It's because the current government messed up with ridiculous negotiations
Let me guess what your qualifications in economics are….none at all
Bye
Make leaving work is impossible, the logic is like cutting off your legs and making walking work again
What price do you put on freedom. It's priceless.
Freedom being that I can only spend 90 days in most of Europe now. Freedom doesn't exist in a capitalist, global economy.
I would question what freedom means exactly.
Lol 😂
@@travellingtom6091 just another intangible concept. Like "sovereignty"
Quite right. Let’s exit NATO, EFTA, INTERPOL, the Five Eyes, the UN etc at once. Can’t have foreigners telling us what to do.
Freedom must come with resources. Yours are dwindling fast. God’s speed.
Maybe in a decade they will think about letting UK apply at all 😂
Leaving the eu was one of my better decisions it’s very hard to count anything with covid it will take years before everything settles back down so we can see where we are putin hasn’t helped the world is in a mess and you can’t blame brexit for that, personally I’ve seen good things happen since we left the unelected eu farce, no more rules from Brussels
No traitors
The UK is better off on its own. And the EU doesn’t need to listen to the constant moaning.
The uk isn’t better off on its own, as explained in the video. We’re too small of an economy and will
Be outpaced by EU and US between us if we don’t rejoin in the coming decades
Lexit not rejoin.
We can’t rejoin , anyway who would want this worn out country , full of unemployed immigrants arriving every day