The UK’s Self-Inflicted Economic DECLINE
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- čas přidán 7. 05. 2024
- A look at the many factors behind the UK's dismal economic performance in the past decade. Why some are international external factors, others are self-inflicted.
Text version
www.economicshelp.org/blog/21...
Chapters
0:00 State of the UK
0:50 Austerity
2:12 Public Sector Investment
3:34 Taxes going Up
5:51 Dodgy forecasts
8:14 Regional divide
9:28 Productivity puzzle
9:55 Brexit
11:25 Inflation
12:09 Housing
13:09 Balance of Payments
14:06 Overview
Sources:
ifs.org.uk/publications/conte...
www.ippr.org/articles/state-o...
www.jrf.org.uk/political-mind...
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► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
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I did a follow up blog - 10 Policies to Fix the UK economy. czcams.com/video/0iLhLlWSE0Q/video.html hopefully a little less pessimistic.
The rich have inevitably hoovered up all the money.
1. Massively tax the super-rich. 2. Abolish Nondoms. 3. Abolish Offshore Trusts. 4. Abolish the 10-ish Tax havens the UK is responsible for. 5. Close tax Loopholes. 6. Genuine Tobin (Robin Hood) tax, not stamp duty. 7. Simplify the tax code. 8. Proportional Representation. 9. Media ownership should be in the hands of ONLY UK citizens who pay their due tax in UK. 10. Middle-out economics.
On the other hand, we could priorities rubber dinghies instead. 🤔
doom mongering sells but do not be like the rest, we have had enough bad news. I'm not watching more doom mongering, sorry,
Great, we need some hope, brilliant videos and analysis, thank you
Can you please send these to the Treasury.
Young people of the UK - leave now before it's too late.
Guatemala is an awesome place to move to - great cheap life and good internet, great weather, plenty of food and water security - no need to heat your home
Sell an organ every few months and you’re golden
Move over North Korea, UK led by Tories are going to show you the way to Brexit totality! Sunak will save the people, the Tory elites are his people! GB news! For the rich? (Tories Competency, not much!)
Move over North Korea, UK led by Tories are going to show you the way to Brexit totality! Sunak will save the people, the Tory elites are his people! GB news! For the rich? (Tories Competency, not much!) Postal Crime's!
Britain is broken and no one can put it together again. Abandon hope.
It’s so depressing… I love the UK. Moved there back in 2014 after uni, but had to leave again as the cost of living and the general chaotic state of the country became too much. Now I’m back in Denmark and no longer have stress or major worries about governance, if I can see my GP or cost of living.
i left london for spain in 2014 when it became a rent / stab fest.
I left last year due to inability to find a job. In Italy I had multiple offer and better living standard. I have other personal problems though
@@kc17131Sounds like a situation quite unique to you, though. Italy has an awful jobs market, by far worse than the UK.
Thanks for loving the UK for a while. I left the UK in 2009 and watch the decline with sadness from a safe distance. I still have relatives there though.
I left for Spain in 2019.
Came back because even though it was a stress-free life in Spain, there is less prospects - in terms of work, retirement, or investment (and also, they are a bit insular). So I came back and haven't been stabbed -yet- and don't pay high rent. Lucky me.
it isn't a decline for the political classes, they've done very well out of it thank you.
Yes, increasingly it seems to me the financial and political elite (aka The Establishment) just want to scavenge the UK corpse for their own advantage. It's everyone for themselves. In the US it's the American Dream which is used to build acceptance into the social system; in the UK it's appeals to Our Glorious Past, Monarchy, the Changing of the Guard, etc. which are used to build forbearance into the social system. The UK system and institutions need a thorough overhaul and dragging into the 21st century.
All buy to let landlords with HMOs everywhere. Guaranteed tenants as over a million people are allowed in the UK every year.
Some have, some haven't
Alot of those landlords slim margins are now underwater. Most landlords have mortgages, some of them huge mortgages. Glad I paid off my mortgage rather than buy one...
@@shatbad2960 too bad, so sad, let them find a job.
"it's just expensive to build in the UK" - it's amazing how easily we allowed ourselves to be gaslighted into believing this sorry excuse; simply because we want so badly to believe that our country is above corruption...
We were the same in Australia, but now we know not many are honourable
I mean sure, it is expensive to build in this country.
But this is an easily resolvable issue! They always forget this part.
It's still true even if you are correct.
Building is expensive because of corruption, and the corruption is so systemic that, if ever addressed, it will likely take decades to fix. We weren't gaslighted into believing that it is what it is, most of us have been saying it for years now, but the government ignored the warnings and enabled it because the corruption is systemic. "Self-inflicted" is the perfect way to describe the UK. This was done deliberately, and the consequences are now in effect.
The reason the UK is so expensive to build in is because of tory voters not wanting development near their quiet leafy suburbs. that and the fact that most of the land in the UK is owned by billionaires and 'old money' families like the Duke of Westminster and their trust funds.
land ownership in the UK is often tied up with trust deeds leaseholds and other means of extracting and hiding wealth. around 40% of land in the UK 70% of which is in Scotland is kept empty so the rich can indulge in their disgusting blood sports once or twice a year. This also increases the cost of building plus the greed of developers who over charge for everything they use in a building.
@@bluegoose7832It's been going on since 1066 when the Normans divided England up among themselves.
I was born at the peak of modern civilisation just to see it fall 😔
The view from the top must be rewarding in itself.
You were born at the peak so that you can catch it and help it back up.
How old are you
Enjoy the drop down - Thorpe park .
what year?
The system is beyond reform. Our only hope is to stop funding their criminality, collapse the establishment and start living like human beings again.
Move over North Korea, UK led by Tories are going to show you the way to Brexit totality! Sunak will save 😅 the people, the Tory elites are his people! GB news! For the rich? (Tories Competency, not much!) Postal Crime's!
Dumb
Wild Max Mad West fantasist detected.
@@TheLucanicLordWild Marx most likely.
@@TheLucanicLord You don't get out much do you?
The question is why did national debt continue to rise for 11 years during an austerity? What was the point of the austerity!
He answered that. You need growth.
Because it was not actually austerity at all. One day we will get REAL austerity!
cos osborne was still borrowing terrifying amounts of money, he was just borrowing a bit less than before.
It never happened. Osborne and Cameron were as addicted to spending public money (and borrowing more) as Blair and Brown. Sunak's even worse.
@@hudldevice1092glad someone else noticed. Public spending rose every year after 2010 but the economy shrank tax base collapsed after 2008 shock
I’m no economist, but I thought that selling off the nation’s infrastructure, exporting our manufacturing base and expanding the service ‘industry’ as well fulling the housing boom, importing millions of foreign workers and keeping interest rates low we’re all to the benefit of the UK economy? The economic ‘experts’ have got what they wanted. So why isn’t the UK economy booming?
No need to say you know nothing about economics as it’s completely obvious. Almost every comment here the same so you are among friends
@@jontalbot1 Sarcasm failure
The self harm of Brexit is the number 1 obvious contender.
@@billpugh58 Which confirms what l thought. Strong opinion, no knowledge. Nothing wrong in being ignorant. Not knowing you are ignorant is something different
@@jontalbot1Such a sad comment, and untrue to boot. Orthodox economists use Representative agent models, instead of empirical research to formulate economic thinking. But these models don't reflect reality. They are abstractions divorced from it.
And what's worse, they have very few solutions when Murphy's law inevitably kicks in.
In the drive to be recognised as a science, the subjective prejudices of many practitioners are shaping their conclusions, rather than empirical observations.
Knowledge is a grade higher than Information, but even higher than these is Wisdom. You need wisdom to utilise both effectively. And mainstream economists seem to lack wisdom. That's why debunked economic ideas like the Laffer Curve for example, won't die the death they objectively deserve.
Overconfidence and entitlement are the worst sins of any discipline claiming to be a science. And mainstream economics has too many guilty of these faults. After all, they give out Nobel prizes to some of the worst economic ideas going. So... economics is sometimes used more as a political belief system, to reinforce the status quo rather than challenge it. Reflecting the motivations of those who fund the industry, rather than those whom its founders wanted it to serve. For instance, Neoliberal political economy in the UK is more political, than economic, as the political ideology directs the economics, rather than the other way round. Accordingly, it has created a parasitical economy, and is killing its host.
By focusing on their preferences rather than reality, they are undermining economic growth for everyone else. And that is leading to increasing poverty, lower living standards, and an unstable economy. A lot of junk economics runs rampaging through the halls of power today in the UK. And whilst our short‐sighted, and inept politicians get the kicking they deserve from Reality, others will try to convince everyone everything's OK, when it's obviously not.
It's not. It's really not ok.
In short, they forgot Murphy's Law actually asks you to design systems that still work when things go wrong, as you will pay the price when they don't. The economy is a system, where consequences definitely come home to roost. Any weaknesses are revealed in concrete ways, and inflexibility can break it. Our economy has been broken by a lack of evidence‐based policy thinking. And reality is sporting steel toecaps as it kicks out in return for being ignored.
Luckily for the tory party donors, they've managed to avoid any issues by having the £1,500,000,000,000 of extra debt with nothing to show for it thrust upon the country that we're now paying for in the largest taxes for 80 years. Thanks tories, you're the best!
Did you march against lockdown and say the whole thing was an over-reaction and a waste of money? People from the bottom-up benefitted from the idiotic covid response, hence why they were so approving of it.
Thieves. I live in Spain and at least we call it 'corruption' here
As if the other cheek of the erse is any better.
@@bromion5123 I don't know why every election people "double down" as if another 5 years of the same will fix it. It was the same with the last lot, and the one before 🤭
@@bromion5123Ordinarily, I'd agree with you, but you have to admit, when the other cheek of that arse was in control, you could get a GP appointment, there were dentists, schools weren't falling in, the economy was doing well & so on. So as little as I think of Starmer, he really couldn't be any worse than Sunak, BlunderTruss, _The Lying Clown,_ May or Scameron. It's not been this bad for decades & this shit sandwich is the fault of the current governing arse cheek.
I'm a medical student in North England, SO HAPPY i have an Irish passport. Godda start learning German again!
Looking forward to getting mine. Thanks parents!
And you think Germany is a better proposition? Good luck with that. 🤣
@@klawlor3659 Thank the heroes of 1916!!
Vondava.
Good for you. You're welcome in the EU27, pick a country that best fits your needs.
The country has so much of its wealth tied up in non-productive assets (houses).
That wealth is inflated on paper make believe
Housing speculation is the equivalent of the weed that absorbs nutrients from other plants
Yep, a gaping maw of a money pit for the benefit of wealthy land owners. A con on the entire west.
Make people think they're getting wealthy as their home value skyrockets, -- but unless they own more property than they live in themselves, their gains are meaningless, because every other house is more expensive too & their income hasn't gone up. so they will never vote for a government promising to bring the cost (& value of their) housing down, because it would mean on-paper asset depreciation for property owners & negative equity for mortgage holders.
But here's the great part! Their pensions get means tested, so they're practically forced to sell when going into aged care.
Their kids can't afford to buy these houses - but the rich can.
And now the kids are endlessly paying extortionate rent to some landlord for "providing" a house that was built a century ago, and will never have equity of their own.
As I said, a supreme con, on the entire west, for the benefit of the local & global elite.
The housing market hoovered up all other gains and efficiencies - wage rises, technology gains, Sunday and long hours opening, both in a couple working etc. Britain has been run for the wealthy for a generation.
So now you know why China is purposely crashing its property market. UK hasn’t got the will to do this
Hello from Poland. We've all been there, lads. Good luck :)
Yeah, but we haven't got the excuse of having been forced to live under a Communist command economy for fifty years...!! This is ALL self inflicted by repeatedly voting for the politics of self interest, selfishness and enriching the few at the expense of the rest of us.
You guys doing well? I know a lot of you been working to build house back home or start business. And not producing kids like the uk people..
Gonna join you as soon as my house is finished , max 2 more years!
@@gumbs2537UK people are producing Abdul Mohammed or Tyron type of kids mostly. Nothing to be proud of.
To summarise: we're fecked and double-fecked entirely. Who knew?
alright sasha yanshin hahaha
And it's all deliberate. The country has been murdered.
Move over North Korea, UK led by Tories are going to show you the way to Brexit totality! Sunak will save the people, the Tory elites are his people! GB news! For the rich? (Tories Competency, not much!) Postal Crime's!
Kkkkkkkkk nobody!!!!!!!
Apparently, some investors knew something since they withdrew funds from the UK. UK quantitative easing did not take place just by magic. Follow the money...
There is no Productivity Puzzle - all productivity gains have gone to the top.
That was the reason they sought to, so called, take back control. That subjugate the British people. No rights, low pay, profiteering utilities owned by other counties. Total sell out of the nation by libertarian non patriots.
Not true - there just are no productivity gains. Not sure how you expect to drive productivity by importing the rest of the world's unskilled labour, whilst also under investing in your own education system.
This statement makes no literal sense. Do you understand what productivity means when discussing economics?
Irelands borrows on the 10 year bond market @1.4% less than the UK.
That says something huge about the state of the UK economy
Even Greece can borrow money at a lower rate than the UK right now 😀
but irish inflation is 4.2%, so they are getting hit with a massive loss ?
@@uweinhamburg Is that the same Greece that the UK said was a basket case from an ecomonic perspective?
@@buy.to.let.britain Latest CSO or central Statistics Office report Irish inflation is
2.2%..
conclusion. your captured government are both deluded and incompetent. @@williampatrickfagan7590
I literally can't comprehend why we still think austerity works it's actually pathetic.
This started way before 2009. The town I live in was so busy on weekends from Thursday to Sunday night a hive of activity.
This was the 90s to 2000s then 2009 was last kick in teeth. I saw factorys and shops good employment vanish. This happened under Blair and Labour Party all they cared about was London I am glad now everyone can see it.
1997, Blair inherited a thriving, dynamic free market economy ....and trashed it with mass immigration, diversity and welfare dependency.
@@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr I never even needed to go to a job centre if I was out of work I just got a job it was easy. How dare those in power blame people being out of work when they destroy the best employers and find ways to rise taxes to make us poorer. I use to hear people blame Thatcher. I kept on thinking about all the factories closing one by one in my town. Oh that was Blair and Labour I saw all the decline with them in power. Then I saw others say the same thing why they voted for Brexit in their part of the UK. People like Blair got to focused on what was going on outside the country that's what I see not focusing on people who live here.
@@CommonPurpose1That was your experience, which can't be generalised. And to be honest, I'm probably older than you, and I was old enough to see Thatcher in, and see what happened to my town. Deindustrialisation started after the great inflation during the 1970s. Britain had become the Sick Man of Europe. The economic growth of the 1980s was built on bankrupting the state, and wasting gains from north sea oil. Our elites thought Asian competition would undercut British industry, so they let it die. From energy to the car industry, it all was starved of investment, as the banks were making more money from stock market speculation, selling off publics services, and selling mortgages. By selling off social housing, central government destroyed local government's ability to alleviate the effects of the job losses.
British firms were sold off, and the jobs weren't replaced. Unless you were educated and literate, you didn't have much chance in the new knowledge economy.
When the Labour Party came in, the British economy had just got over the hit of crashing out of the ERM, when interest rates went up to 15%. Some people lost their homes, but GDP went up for 16 years after that. The State still had some capacity, and so they tried to use neoliberalism tools to repair the damage to public services. Children weren't going hungry, or suffering from diseases of deprivation then. There were no food banks, and the economy grew enough to finish paying off the debt of World War II owed to the Americans. But Thatcher's revolution meant there was no money to build new hospitals, and so they borrowed on usurous terms to invest in public services. That was welcomed by the financial sector which had replaced industrial production as the largest sector in the British economy. Their mistake was not to understand how unsustainable the financial revolution started by Thatcher was.
Neoliberal economics crashed and burned in 2008, and we've been subsidising the banks ever since. Whatever British manufacturing was left after the early 1980s, gradually eroded.
The loss of a mixed economy which could provide jobs for people of all abilities, is the biggest legacy of the transition to an economy dominated by finance and technology. And a 2 term Labour government and a misled public couldn't change that.
The market-driven ideology led revolution thought markets could solve everything, but it ignored the fact that the humans in them suffer from things like greed and selfishness, and weakened the only real safeguard against it. The state. Britain isn't alone in this folly. Most governments, are reaping the rewards of being owned by the wealthy, and run by the wealthy, for the wealthy. That's why most of them are technically bankrupt, including the UK. We're literally back to where we were in 1945 in terms of the National Debt. That's all down to the greatest wealth transfer in history, and it's not finished yet. In a generation or two, only the kith and kin of the asset wealthy will own homes, and the state will just be an empty shell for corporations kleptocrats, and family landlords to control the population. Unless people listen to voices like Gary Stevenson and wake up to the facts. And not just look to their own circumstances to understand the world they live in. Simply, if you rely on a job for a living, you are vulnerable. And what they do to the least valuable people in society, they will do to you.
Thatcherism made us all frogs in a pot on the stove over low heat over the last 4 decades, and the water is getting warm as the asset wealthy try to gaslight us that everything is ok. It's not. And it won't be for those who follow us unless we get our priorities straight.
Yub, you got Brexit.
Immigration still higher than ever before. Economy on the downhill.
Who you gonna blame now? Labour and immigrants lol.
@@CuriousCrow-mp4cx SAINT Maggie transformed this country after the dire fiasco of socialism from 1945 to 1979, 34 wasted years of industrial decay and decline. Germany opted for free markets and boomed....so too Hong Kong in 1961 where taxation was abolished.
Welfarism and nationalisation only ever achieved idleness, sloth and indolence.
Labour has always been a busted flush, and socialism has been an unmitigated failure wherever it has been implemented.
What a time to be alive
Down the slope in irretrievable manner.
WWII was worst.
@@1guitarlover when you have to use WW2 to make yourself feel better about now, you’ve lost the argument
The world recovered after ww2. It will recover again after past few years problems.
When the Thatcher government decided that manufacturing industry could be replaced by service jobs it was obvious to any objective person that long term economic prospects would suffer. According to the ONS in 1972 production was 70% of the UK economy; in 2023 it was 44%. Those jobs have gone to China, India and other eastern countries, who now make things which we import from the other side of the world. So we gave them the jobs and then we gave them our money for their products - crass stupidity to anyone except a self-serving politician.
Most of those lost manufacturing jobs were located in the north and midlands, so it's no surprise that regional inequality has worsened. Instead of protecting and developing our industries like the Germans do, the tories and new "labour" let foreign interests buy them up and asset strip them in the interests of globalisation and cheap goods. The tories are self-evidently an utter disaster for the country, but unfortunately Starmer's "labour"party is hardly any better as they are proposing to run with the tories' spending constraints. The current UK political system is designed to preserve the status quo, so we are doomed to stagger on clinging to the coat tails of the US whose only interest is to make money out of us.
"..the US whose only interest is to make money out of us." Hilarious comment. Make money? The US doesn't need you in order to "make money" - their economy is almost 10X your size. They're doing exceptionally well without you.
@@chanceriordan Without all the wars and proxy wars started by the US all over the Middle East (where oil comes from) and now in Ukraine (with Russia being Europe's most important energy trade partner), Europe would be a lot better off! The refugee crisis is itself a consequence of US wars, and Europe's complete lack of any initiative to stop the US from creating chaos in Europe's neighbourhood.
She didn’t decide the industry chose its own fate
UK workers put the nail in our manufacturing industries. When ships could be built overseas for half the cost of those built on the Clyde businesses moved their orders to cheaper providers.
Nice try, Igor. No cigar though
@@pineapplesareyummy6352
This country desperately needs a political class with some ambition and balls. Instead, we have a mindset that is obsessed with cutting expenditures rather than actually investing in the country. A ten-year decline in local authority status and continuously high NHS waiting lists is bad for the country. Is it really going to be a decade before we see someone in parliament with Attlee's ambition and courage to restructure this broken country?
Unfortunately since Attlee these people have got too rich to care so no optimism here.
Attlee's collection of welfare state disasters are the source of the problem. The British people have been paying the price ever since. Attlee was so bad the electorate even gave Churchill another go.
Couldn't agree more.
We need a bevy of changes
-> Tax reform including rolling NI into income tax, higher sin taxes (salt, sugar). And crucially a Land Value Tax that replaces stamp duty and council tax.
-> higher child benefits to prevent children growing up in poverty
-> A focus on boosting early years education budgets and having early years support (think sure start)
-> Unlocking our planning system by giving quick approval for schemes that meet quality thresholds. Or just using the Viennese model.
-> Parliamentary reform with PR like system like Scotland or Wales. And some version of Lords reform (personally I'm in favour of a non-elected house of almost all non political experts, and a small segment of randomly selected citizens)
-> A federal system with regional parliaments including, or enhanced regional devolution
-> A properly integrated NHS computer system
-> Higher transport infrastructure spending
UK is not the same old UK any more. Stop all the wars and foreign interferences and look after your own citizens would be a good start
You need to ditch the socialism, badly. But you won't until it's too late. Because old people and migrants want the handouts, so, now it's wait for the collapse.
I came back from living in Korea for over a decade at the end of 2022. Still going through reverse culture-shock even over a year on...
The spending over there is spread throughout the country and it's fucking noticeable especially when you come from the UK having lived in the north for your life. No one's left behind and everyone expects there to be progress.
They have a devolved mechanism where regions can rake their own taxes and set there own fiscal strategy for investment and taxation.
I know what you mean. It really is "grim up north".
@@klawlor3659 depends on perspective. If you don't know any different it just is what it is. But if you've lived elsewhere it really feels left behind. I lived in Korea and found that the UK has entirely been left behind... the world. Countries like Vietnam and even Cambodia will surpass us in infrastructure and quality of life in the next 10 years if not already.
I've been in china and taiwan since 2019. in taiwan now. my quality of life is pretty great. I have easy access to doctors, dentists and emergency services. I have a car and go on weekend trips. i eat well. my job is good. i'm safe, except when riding a scooter.
i do miss the uk for its museums and theatre and countryside and pubs but got to take care of practicalities first.
if i was living in the uk i would save very little. in taiwan I save a good chunk every month.
@@Drunkenmeows I know exactly where you're coming from. I've left the UK and lived in a few countries and sadly the UK is up there with the worst of them. Not just due to my perspective but due to the reality of how things really are. Demographics are destiny, and we have a demographic time bomb on the way which pretty much ensures quality of life here will get much worse. Crumbling infrastructure that dates from the 60s, and has had little investment. Finance houses fleeing for better returns and conditions overseas. I positively dread to see what life is like in the UK in 2034. By then I'm hoping that I've emigrated (this time for the final time).
@@klawlor3659 yeah totally. Before I left Korea I bumped into a Bangladeshi guy working over in the ship yards in the city I lived in. When I said we were leaving he said that he had family in Birmingham and that he'd never go back after Korea... It's still a widely held belief in the minds abroad that the UK is this sort of we'll put together place, that everything is "perfect" in comparison to any hardships abroad.
1:11 seeing that graph took me right back. Osbourne had seen what austerity did to Greece and its tax receipts and he still pursued his fiscal nonsense. Probably out of spite for the unwashed masses.
There was no austerity
@@mark4lev Agree it was nowhere near as tough as it could have been.
They looked at the Canadian example not Greece.
@@VincentRE79 yes. And also, something I have put in hundreds of comments sections, the labour and Tory spending plans drawn up by the treasury for 2010 onwards were identical. Apparently labour also would have not allowed Brexit?? Come again? They started it in 2002.
@@mark4lev Agree Labour try to deny this. Brexit was caused by Blair and his immigration policy in the early 2000s. The Conservatives inherited a dreadful situation in 2010 and are paying a price for this. Immigration and government debt took off under New Labour and have been impossible to resolve.
Our current economic woes can be summed up in just two words. GREED / CORRUPTION.
Yep
I was going to go with Green Policy
UK Economy is screwed😮
Yep
- Financial markets, the No1 industry is in decline. London just is not the hub of world finance any more, for a whole bunch of reasons that are irreversable.
- 3rd biggest industry is tourism but half the population want to shoot that in the foot by getting rid of the royal family
- We export pretty much nothing but Pharma (due to Oxford and Cambridge uni's and legacy pharma infrastructure in the UK)
- All manufacturing is gone, leaving the north in poverty. Not much you can do when the world is globalised, transport costs are low and people in other countries will work for a few dollars a day, with no health and safety
- And our education standards have been in decline for 20/30 years, but we still expect to be a service economy having slipped to 30+ in the education rankings
We have borrowed our way through the last 20 years to paper over the cracks. And now as we approach the point we can't borrow much more without interest rates needing to reflect a default risk there is no more paper left.... and people are starting to notice the cracks.
Wow, well said in a language I understand.
@@paullegend6798 "London just is not the hub of world finance any more" - Most of them left after Brexit
@@ryanwhite. Little to do with Brexit.
Go look up how many listings there have been per year and their value. London lost it's pre-eminence as the place to go to raise capital a long time ago.
Not to say that Brexit helped, it sped up the decline a little and encourage movement of some remaining business to EU.
Brexit is NOT the architect of our issues.
We have sunk FAR too much of our wealth into property
Not enough into the future prosperity of the nation. We don’t lead in ANY area of manufacturing so we sell our services. We have way to many old people and not enough young people/ don’t moan about migration it’ll even out in the coming 20-30 yrs as the baby boomers die off.
Housing is a major issue - it means that people are spending almost half their paychecks unproductively, rather than saving (easing the social security burden down the line), spending (stimulating the economy), or investing. Rent money is being pissed away - it goes into landlords’ pockets, who then just spend it themselves on more EXTRACTIVE activities (buying more houses) than on productive activities.
Absolutely
I've been out for 20 years - (Scandinavia then USA - they have their own problems but not as bad for my situation) - whenever I come back every couple of years the UK looks worse off. If you have skills and are not tied down it might be worthwhile looking at moving to an economy that has growth or at least not declining.
Same here, two 2 years in DK, then DE
This omits the one major factor, the tories and their 14 year of austerity corruption lies greed and mismanagement including brexit
You're correct in the first part of your statement, but incorrect in blaming Brexit for some of the issues. Brexit hasn't actually been delivered, so how on Earth can it be to blame for anything ! ?
@@jamesbarbour8400 YEH! Paying more to export to the EU hasn't happened yet! oh wait...
@@jamesbarbour8400 oh James, this is it, this is Brexit
@@Me0wish 👌👍
Pandemic + Ukraine war + Brexit you guys got railed also you are heavily dependent on London that now lacks Russian oligarchy money ,some moved operations to the Netherlands.
A know that a lot of shenanigans happen in London especially with housing and money.
People from my country brought things from amazon uk after Brexit a lot of people started buying from Amazon spain
Who believe that Brexit didn’t have an effect are in denial, things in Europe aren’t great but are better than in the uk.
Keep strong
I left the UK last year to move to the USA and within 6 months I’d doubled my salary, in a country with a lower cost of living… the problems for the average person in the uk are so significant nowadays. There is a greater problem with severe poverty here in America, but if you’re in the middle, your life is so much more comfortable.
The elephant in the room is the political system here. So long as FPP remains, so, long as there remains an unelected upper house, so long as lobbying is permitted, so long as MPs are allowed to have 2nd jobs, so long as party donors include corporate identities and donations are not severely limited, and so long as there is no citizen initated binding referendums as in some countries and so long as people here continue to believe the propaganda that passes for news in the papers, than the UK will continue to worsen. A sensible person would simply prepare to leave asap and I certainly encourage the young to do so.
PR means dodging tough decisions and weak government.
PR would have meant Saint Maggie could not tame anarchy, mafia unions holding the nation to ransom.
It doesn't matter what political system you have as long as lefty supporting public emloyees do nothing to make make the incumbent government look good. The same applies to lefty lawyers, Judges, celebrities etc..and they would do the same to Reform.
Well said
I left in 2022 and glad i did. It's a shame what's happened to the UK. I miss it but on my one visit back i more know i made the right choice
This is very helpful explanation -
clear and no too hard for
non-economists to follow.
Subscribed
Wont be fixed in my life time, its a harsh truth but if you are over the age of 25 you will never see the UK situation better than it is now. It will takes decades to undo the damage the last 15 years of the goverment has done.
Isn't the real problem of the UK at this moment that there is simply not a single indicator which shows that things could get better in the near or medium future?
The doom will go on!
The doom will go on, and that is pretty much independent of who is running the show. Even a Labour government with a huge majority will have to live with the same basic statistics.
Once money became paper statistics, the temptation to print more is irresistible. But the consequence are predictable. Same with the USA. Inflation is scarcely possible if money is linked to Gold, or something, bitcoin if necessary. If the value of money is simply linked to government self control, we're all stuffed.
@@MarkJones-gt2qdthat’s not actually true. The main reason the US while not doing amazing is doing better than any other developed economy right now is in part because it used its government wealth to invest in itself (allowing us to basically side step a recession & tame inflation). That’s also a big part of why we bounced back from the ‘08 recession better than the EU, and had more growth (and what economists say it would have recovered faster if the second stimulus had passed). The whole point is that unlike with personal finance government spending on things that grow the economy is an investment. (Though I would argue if you could borrow at 3% and get a 7% return you’re actually applying the same principle to personal finance.)
@@MarkJones-gt2qd Do you know how much gold there is on earth? No way back to a gold based currency. And bitcoin? As long as i cannot go shopping with bitcoins anywhere, it's a ludicrous idea.
You are right in the central point, though - if the value of money is simply linked to government self-control, we're all stuffed. And as the biggest economy in the world doesn't show the slightest interest in self-control, that sounds even worse...
The UK needs to take some unpleasant economic and social medicine. Unfortunately, no governments, now or in the foreseeable future have the brains or moral backbone to implement a recovery plan. The worst is yet to come, unfortunately.
I think you’ll find that the 34 TRILLION dollar debt the USA now has, is going to finish off their economy in the not too distant future.
If I was young my first priority would be to gain European citizenship by whatever means.
We've had globalisation as well. We get told by economists of the benefits of globalisation. To whom in the economy? Cheap labour in ,expensive labour out. Cheap labour in, investment out,productivity down. Cheap labour in,profits up. Cheap labour in,greater inequality. Cheap labour in,housing crisis. Cheap labour in, healthcare crisis.When you adjust for inflation there has been minimal wage growth over 15 years but profits have soared. Over the past 10 years, the average weekly wage declined from around £540 to £520 in real terms.
Every western country deals with globalization. It presents big challenges and causes problems as well as benefits, for sure, but it would have been quite manageable if the government didn’t screw up everything else.
No insular economy does well. Isolationist countries are on average significantly worse off. It is a balance, the world is interconnected, we all rely on everyone else and they rely on us too. There has to be a balance. The UK government did a tremendous job fucking up where it fails to advocate for it's citizens and fails to play well internationally. It is only out for itself. The rest of us in the UK... put up with their poor decisions
@@TheShortStory Governments ,in my case British, have a habit of not being able to cope across the board. The fault lies with the system and the electorate who have not heard that continuing to vote in the same identikit kind of individuals produces the same kind of identikit anaemic results.
Its easy to blame external factors. The UK government likes doing that. But the problem is internal.
This channel has changed my understanding of economics (not likeninhad much to start with though), great videos.
This was just the pick me up I needed!
tax on the wealthy with shares and assets tied to the economy should be revised and all tax loopholes and inheritance tax reliefs should be reviewed. Low growth is tied to the working and middle class being cucked by the rise of rent and bills, owned and manipulated by these share holders.
Duke of Westminster paid zero inheritance tax on a £9 billion pound estate
The problem with trying to do that is everyone in power owns the assets. They wouldn't allow it.
Yeah tax on wealth is a mess. People on PAYE pay through the nose, decent job expect half your money to go on taxes. The whole tax system rests on the shoulders of a tiny number of people (and it's not the super rich).
And yeah, don't hold your breath for proper wealth taxes. The Labour party rely on the same rich donors as the Tories. They won't shoot their donors in the foot, even though the current system is idiotic and completely unfair.
Go buy shares and stop moaning.
Very true
Great presentation as always. Thanks.
Actually a really good explanatory video on the UK's economic problems. 👍
From Terence Wise........This is a very good economic assessment,what is missing because it doesn’t belong here but is necessary to explain how it came about......is the regression in national political thought and action that began in 1979 and increasingly turned our Country back in time.
I don't know much about economy but I was thinking the same that without a radical change nothing will improve. Thank you for pointing that out and explaining in detail 😊
If housing wasn't so expensive people would have more disposable income which presumably leads to growth. The lack of new building is inexcusible.
That would lower the value of houses meaning the rich would lose money. No way they would allow that. This is true for most countries not just the UK.
There are thousands of empty houses....
When I was in UK. I saw empty boarded up streets under a constant grey sky, litter everywhere.
Homeless people sleeping in doorways. A women with cat whiskers makeup casually walking into Tesco with her pajamas. Opioid addicts out of their mind and women so drunk they urinated on the streets.
It's a sad declined country.
It's not good but your experience doesn't reflect the average state of the UK.
I'd say that's a pretty accurate assessment of the UK . You've seen the best of it . Ha, ha, ha,. What a glorious pad to hang out in
And that was just outside my house😂😂
I do feel for the poorer people in the UK. I mean this with no disrecpect but anyone with household incomes of less than about £60k total must be feeling it.
That the vast majority
@@LayLoow exactly, where do we go from here? Migration is the only option
@@michaelgoodwin593 that’ll only put a strain on the other country, it’s easier for the younger generation to do this to move abroad but the grass isn’t greener on the other side you have to sacrifice a lot which isn’t really worth it, family more important than money but the hardest one at moment is house prices and rental is ridiculous to have a roof over your head real slave trap, people should start living with parents more save money and more disposable income
@LayLoow yeah, I I wish I hadn't wasted so much money on cars and stuff when I was younger. But hindsight is always useful right.
no they are all on benefits getting the cost of living payments
Awesome thanks. Brilliant content.
Part of the problem regarding sickness is that many have worked out that they're better off on the sick compared to working.
Especially with ridiculously high taxes.
Which also has the effect of not wanting to do better at work, simply because you're penalised with having to cough up even more tax!
Oh come on. People have no sense of responsibility now. They are feckless, narcissistic. Despite living in one of the richest place on earth, with the best standard of living ever experienced by any humans, we all think we are hard done by. That is what sickness rates are all about. 70 years ago, people had pride and standards, they wouldn't shirk out of personal responsibility. They would come home, do their washing by hand and feel lucky to crowd into the one house on the street with a black and white telly to watch the single available channel - the BBC.
Tax the poor, and middle class, rich getting tax cuts!
UK led by Tories are going to show you the way to Brexit totality! Sunak will save the people, the Tory elites are his people! GB news! For the rich? (Tories Competency, not much!) Postal Crime's!
It's not that easy to get on the sick. I've just tried to get my Grandson the PIP benefit, because he lost his sight in his left eye, they rejected his claim. So being blinds not a disability..
Hmm, wrong on both counts. Health is a resource and the biggest negative effects on health come from decisions made in non-health departments. Complaining about how much health benefits cost is missing the point, the UK is massively overweight, stress is at an all time high, and prevention is an awful lot cheaper than treatment of benefit. It's just to fix that you have to educate all of government and reduce the primacy of the treasury in political decision-making. High taxes are common in Scandinavia and it has led to a high standard of living and how social protections. It has not reduced competitiveness, rather, it has led to less inequality across society.
What you're really saying is that the UK isn't right-wing enough, when in reality the UK suffers from too much inequality and efforts to turn it into a mini-USA on Europe's doorstep.
@@uvk99 how do you explain the massive spike in sick people then that the graph clearly shows?
I know we had the insanity of covid, and our cretinous leaders deciding it was the best idea to lock us all up for the best part of two years, which possibly lead to some more cases of mental health issues.... But not the big spike that we see.
If we're being lead by donkeys, and they're doing rather well by playing the system, and if people are being punished for extra taxes by doing better, then what kinda incentive is there to knuckle down and work hard....
If I was young, and being told by every msm and social media outlet that there's a climate crisis, and we have to pay for that, which by our insane government's own figures is 1.5 trillion to hit net zero by 2050,which means a conservative estimate will be 4-6 trillion. Then why would I work, and pay for that nonsense, whilst watching everything else around me fall apart!
I enjoy your videos but would really like a video where you tell us exactly what you would do to fix this mess if you were chancellor for the day.
I've been seriously considering moving back to the U.K. for my retirement, but given it's current economic outlook, it's looking less attractive.
This content is far better than anything I've seen on bbc or sky.
Haven't watched the video but am already loving the title.
It wouldn’t be so grim if the people refrained from crime, but given how much crime already exists knowing it’ll only get worse is pretty depressing, can’t wait to get out of here
To much money is going out of the country
Thank you, a good talk.
I am 58 and i have never seen the country so badly run and run down in my life!
I do not think i will see the country improve in my life time!!
The GB economy is like a business with a high turnover, but making a loss. We have little industrial products to export. Governments seem to think that building houses grows the economy!
If you really want growth you have to start seriously hustling. People in the UK aren't exactly known for their work ethic. So that's that.
@@zuzanazuscinova5209 you obviously don't live in the north of England, then?
@@andrewwilson6085I went to Manchester Uni and saw first hand the work ethic of native students vs Chinese. I don't need to see more.
@@zuzanazuscinova5209 students don't live in the same world! Ask their parents about work, they pay the fees!
Excellent, as usual. Public sector investment *must* increase significantly. Frankly, the private sector cannot (or will not) take up the slack, and productivity will continue to decline in line with the country's declining infrastructure. Some real out of the box thinking is needed.
I think there are many things which can be done once there is a change of government although real improvements will take time. Investing in social housing is a good idea but we have to invest in training to achieve that. We can negotiate a closer trading relationship with the EU. One of the few good things the Tories have done is invest in offshore wind production and that can be increased. We can improve connectivity in Northern England. We should recreate the Regional Development Agencies the Tories abolished. We have a very large high tech SME sector ( bigger than France and German combined) we can assist other sectors we are strong in like pharmaceuticals, robotics, aeronauticals etc. At the moment most technical research is conducted in universities but we could invest more in freestanding research institutions more closely aligned with industry. We are also very strong in things like film and music production, software writing, games production etc and there may be further opportunities for development. Overriding all of this is the necessity of a proper industrial strategy as exists in almost all developed nations. We had one under May but as is typical of the Tories, they then ditched it because they don’t like what they refer to as the Nanny state. Everyone else knows it as modern government. Never ceases to amaze me that so many come into government thinking their job is to destroy it
True well explained ❤
The main scam is not raising tax thresholds in line with inflation. So the poorest in society now find themselves paying tax. At the other end when you get to £50,000 the tax rate is 40%. So 40% tax 12% NI you get 48% of your salary. Of course indirect taxation VAT and fuel take a big chunk of your 48%. Not much incentive to work hard.
Plus those earning over 50 grand can put the rest of it in pensions and they get 40% tax relief.
Whenever i drive past an HS2 site there are literally thousands of different coloured pedestrian fences and signs…they must spend half there time moving fences to enable any work to start..& that’s probably after filling a hundred forms & permits in 🤦♂️..why is anyone surprised..
Great analysis, thanks.
Bringing in millions of military age single men who don't work really helped.
If the UK is going to allow 600 k plus people in every year it might as well sof stayed in the EU.
Some of the things that happened since the UK left the EU :
1. EU's GDP PPP per capita became higher than the UK's one. For the first time in history. 56 929 dollars for the EU vs 56 471 dollars for the UK.
2. French GDP PPP economy size will become bigger than the British one. 4 trillion dollars vs 3,9 trillion dollars.
3. Germany became bigger economy than Japan in nominal terms, to become the third biggest economy of the world.
4. UK will become only 10th economy of the world by the GDP PPP size during the 2024. China, USA, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and France are ahead.
not true france is still below the uk
1 United States America 27,974
2 China Asia 18,566
3 Germany Eurpoe 4,730
4 Japan Asia 4,291
5 India Asia 4,112
6 United Kingdom Europe 3,592
7 France Europe 3,182
8 Italy Europe 2,280
9 Brazil America 2,272
10 Canada America 2,242
can you provide a source for this made up rubbish
@@terryj50 Yeah, Google. You heard about it?
@@terryj50 Meanwhile learn the difference between the GDP PPP and nominal GDP. 😅 Oh and enjoy the full blown recession. 😂😂😂😂 While EU adds 1 trillion euros to it's economy from 2023 to 2024, 18,35 trillion dollars in 2023 to 19,4 trillion dollars in 2024.
@@Just_another_Euro_dude checking out trading economics the uk is still ahead of France most of the eu is in recession. What are you talking about what drugs are you on. Now please show me a a source for these trillions.
I would love to hear your analysis on whether an independent Scotland would improve the standard of living for Scottish people.
Brilliant analysis
@5:18 really captures the death spiral the UK is currently in. That means that in order to break out of this cycle of austerity->low growth->les tax-> more debt is only going to be broken by increasing productivity. I'm excited to see how Economics Help UK says we do that
Yes - you work smarter or longer if you want more stuff. If you want more tellies, phones, sofas, food, energy (all imported) you need something to swap with the people in the rest of the world that make them. So to improve your standard of living you need to be more productive and make more stuff to swap.
No politician is going to tell you that because it requires action for the general population. None of us want to hear we need to work harder. We want some simple solution that requires us to do nothing, while someone else "fixes" everything.
@@paullegend6798Productivity is nothing to do with how hard or how long you work. Productivity is how much output or wealth you can generate over a defined time period. If you work twice as hard or twice as long to double your output then your productivity has not increased one jot.
@@jannenreuben7398 I am disappointed you didn't engage with my actual point at all...
"you work smarter or longer if you want more stuff"
But if this has to be some intellectual gotcha about a technical definition of productivity.....I'll engage for the lol's
If you worked harder and your output per hour doubled you would in fact have doubled your output and therefore your productivity. For instance.
If it takes 5 workmen to dig a hole in one hour, 4 standing watching and 1 workman actually doing something, what increase in productivity is achievable if they all help dig holes. Answer 500%.
I can even defend working longer if you want. If the UK economy produces 100 units of output in 1 year, and then people work longer and produce 200 units of output what is the UK economy's productivity (given you defined productivity as output per time period). Yes the output per time period doubled, so productivity doubled (I am using your exact definition btw before you quibble with me).
@@jannenreuben7398 Thank you for pointing this out. More productivity doesn't mean more labour, it means more efficient labour. It goes back to the old adage or working smart over working hard.
That's a dire forecast. A provocative question: Would Irish re-unification be financially beneficial for Great Britain? Unification, i.e. NI leaving the UK would surely reduce GB government spending and remove a chunk of the national debt (assuming NI takes this chunk with it).
The North accounts for 2.5% of the population, yet it seems to cause 25% of the deficit of the UK, I doubt it. How are you measuring the North chunk of the debt??
@@roryoneill9444 I had to take these figures from wiki (couldn't find full figures for UK regions on UK GOV site...). UK GDP (millions of pounds, includes NI): 2,276,715. NI GRP (gross regional product): 51,717 millions of pounds. NI population: 1,904, 578. To my surprise, NI GRP is therefore only 2.32% of the UK total. So 2.3% of the UK national debt would be a drop in the ocean. Feel free to check my figures.
@@expatexpat6531 How big did you think the North was???
I did the research already and the official Uk figures in 2022/23 for the North had a tax take of £19 billion but the expenditure was about £34 billion, so without a working Government in Stormont in 2023, the North was able to spend 175% of the region's tax revenue but didn't give pay rises to Civil Servants or up-graded port infrastructure. I find that hard to believe, without some "creative accounting" from West Minister, if the Uk Government would have given billions away during a pandemic instead of saving lives, I think a lot of the money allocated to the North ends up pockets on the way out of London.
@@roryoneill9444 No idea - I thought De Loreans were still being produced there 🙂 I have been abroad for a while... Yes, deep pockets in the SE.
Without investment in the private and public sector, we will miss out in improvements to productivity and competitiveness of new technology such as AI, 3d printing and green energy. We need an industrial policy, and fast.
It’s helpful to hear about all the negatives but would also be nice to hear some positives, particularly in terms of how we can resolve these problems!
There are no positives. The only resolution is revolution in my view, by which I mean the UK gets so low that it is finally forced to throw off the chains that have held it down for the last 1000 years. I don't , however, believe the British have the perception to see the issues or the resolve to do what needs to be done. I hope to be proven wrong.
That’s a different presentation and topic. To be fair watching from New Zealand 🇳🇿 things in the UK are really grim. It’s all been entirely predictable but I don’t see the citizens getting off their asses and protesting like they’ve done so well in the past.
Outstanding explanation
Much worse is the operative word
Britain is going to have to start paying its way in the world
Stop the borrowing start repaying debts
Dont be silly. We need to keep borrowing so that we can give it to Ukraine to keep the war going. That way, we can dig a bigger hole for all our future kids to pay off. 😂😂
🤦🏼♀️
Austerity isn’t pretty we suffered a lot with troika here and the government continues to destroy our public sector even after they left.
I myself am looking forward to when 100% of taxes collected go towards repaying the UK's debts . Then they'll be no dosh available for anything . It's coming . Anyone who takes a look at the UK's debt clock must come to that very conclusion .
Really interesting!
The UK was able to extend its global prestige long after losing its Empire by clinging to the USA as a loyal vassal. Now that the US is declining, the UK is exposed to the same factors such as lower productivity and a financialized economy predicated on a mountain of debt that is out of control.
Does the UK admit the reality of its situation, live within its means and scale back the saber rattling for the benefit of the US defense industry and politicians stock portfolios? or do the politicians continue the trajectory to irrelevance?
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair
It's losing not loosing 🙄
It's got nothing to do with the defence industry. We only spend 2% on defence. It's not a huge amount.
But you have the nail on the head with the "scale back" part. Do we scale back public services to a level we can afford or continue to spend upwards of 15% a year more than we have, adding the deficit to the public debt..... while you can afford more debt, it's great to postpone all problems for another day.... but at 100% of GDP, our debt is not far off the point we can't easily borrow more (as the debt will cease to be seen as risk free, possibility of default becomes real, then people demand higher interest rates, or won't lend at all in worse case).
"the US is declining..." No, it's not. America's economy is still booming and just reached $27 trillion in GDP. Their population is growing and they're not facing catastrophic demographic collapse thanks in part to massive immigration from Latin America.
@@chanceriordan Please, lets talk again about the booming US economy at the end of this year - maybe by mid year. There is 34 trillion in debt, adding 1 trillion every 100 days, there is a massive underlying issue with commercial real estate, decline global usage of the dollar, and a population that is living on credit card debt. If you ask the avg. American, they will tell you the economy is not doing great. And before you say "the US can print as much money as it wants", then ask yourself, if that is true, than why does anybody have to pay taxes?
Flooding the country with 7 million illegal immigrants is not a formula to save the country, if it was, EU would be a rock star. These policies of unlimited debt based consumption, uncontrolled immigration, waining global importance are completely unsustainable and has happened many times in history before. The US in a very late cycle, and history shows this won't end well.
I am sure that didn't convince you at all, I am just a random commentator on youtube. However, I would recommend taking a deeper look and see how this has happened before.
@@jessedamsky977 The US debt of $34tn is $100k per person and $266k per taxpayer.
The whole of the West is hiding its decline with debt. We will borrow until we can't borrow any more, and then we will have to face reality but now with massive debt to bear as well.
At least the US is energy independent thanks to fracking, is a net food exporter and holds the Western worlds tech sector on it's West coast. So hell I'd rather be in the US than the UK, but they are both in decline.... the UK is just way down the curve already.
Great analysis
Very well explained. In your opinion how much growth in GDP has been sucked out of the economy by the massive rise in house prices over the last 2 decades?
There's plenty of reasons why the government can be blamed for this, because just look at all the laws they could change, like how legalizing cannabis would create a whole new industry that would be paying taxes, unlike the current drug dealers who don't, not to mention all the money wasted on policing and prison time for cannabis related crimes.
Most likely Germany will legalize cannabis within this year.
And when we have more young black men developing paranoid schizophrenia due to it and going on stabbing sprees, will that be costed in?
That it's a safe drug has surely been debunked by now.
It's been legal for medical use since 2018. You can go to a private clinic, get a prescription, and buy and use cannabis legally.
@@Black_Sheep186 The idea in Germany is to make it legal for recreational purposes.
Wouldn’t dealers continue to sell it cheaper and how “illegal” tabaco enters the uk?
Also I doubt the cannabis industry would help significantly your problems
UK media are quite quiet about EU. I am Polish born, going to Poland every month (Love my Mum and family) see what's going on in EU. It's idiocracy, chaos, thousands of migrants (illegal, fuck knows from where A DAY. After Brexit, EU is turning into United States of Germania. There is no superpower (like UK) that would dare saying NO to Germo-Benelux fatal, imbecil, counter-logical ideas. It's such chaos. Poles, Czechs, Hungarians (...) often comment EU politics "Aww yes, exactly like when we were satellites of USSR" and "Yesterday Moscow, today Brussels - the core idea is the same".
Argentina, here we come!
The politician's are more concerned about the Ukrine than the UK itself.
found the putin lover.
@@HermanWillems World doesn't revolve around squabble of two soviet orphans, you know.
Societal attitudes towards government and the economy need to fundamentally change. Otherwise the solutions will be to always double down leading to things getting progressively worse over time.
The best time was in the 60s and 70s. Now very bad.
Very concerning. Would love to get a similar run down on Ireland. Thanks
Would be interesting to hear if the low skilled labour we currently take in actually boosts gdp when their dependents are taken into account. The current treasury doctrine doesn’t really seem to take that into account.
It boosts GDP in the same way that someone causing £500 worth of damage to your car boosts it. What it doesn't do is boost GDP per capita which is a much more useful measure.
Leas about the dependents, many are single, their impact is that they send their cash (remittances) back home so it’s not reinvested into the UK money supply.
More people more consumers more buyers , i know is not hard to scam the uk government.
Doesn’t the uk has data on it, my country migrants give more to ss than they take although I think this is a shortsighted solution because is easier than resolving issues decades old, real problems some don’t talk the language so is hard for them to get jobs besides mostly uber,agriculture or are unemployed meanwhile migrants that speak our language is easy for them to find a job because a lot of them get underpaid with companies doing shenanigans like outsourcing
Thanks again BREXIDIOTS!
Stop talking nonsense you silly child! 😂
I ran my own business for over thirty years.
If you keep cutting your outgoings, you eventually cut what makes you money - training, tech, quality control, etc. So while cutting waste is always wise, cutting some costs is insane.
Now, of course you can underinvest and help yourself to the 'savings' for some time, but without adequate investment you will destroy your business.
Had our country invested in the last fourteen years - not handed out tax loopholes to the rich, not asset-stripped the country, not removed demand by impoverishing so many, not disincentivising investment - then we could have had growth.
But these people never expected to be in power for so long, so thought they could dump this'noses in the trough' economy on Labour. Birds are coming home to roost all the time so we can expect things to worsen even more.
The Tories need to leave asap for their sake and ours.
14 MORE Tory years please!
Looking at Britain from Australia, my heart is broken with the continuing economic issues getting so bad. The stress on so many, even here due to high costs are cowering the population to an unprecedented degree.
How is it living in the Australian economy? Are things much better for you over there?
🇦🇺nope not really. Better than UK but we are in a major cost of living crisis for so many people. Housing affordability, inability to find rental accommodation and increase in people visiting food banks….issues with Medicare. What is troubling the UK and US troubles us here too. I guess we have better weather?…☀️
@@ladysusanjane2682 crazy how people in Britain think that they are the only ones suffering.
Australian is dependent on china, if china messes with taiwan I doubt Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t be affected.
*Abstract:*
The UK economy has been on a downward trajectory since the 2009 financial crisis, with stagnant GDP per capita and a recent recession. This decline is self-inflicted, caused by a combination of austerity measures, poor investment decisions, policy flip-flopping, and the negative impacts of Brexit. These factors have created a vicious cycle of low growth, rising debt, and declining public services. The future looks bleak, with the prospect of higher taxes, further austerity, and worsening regional inequality.
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*Bullet list summary:*
* *Stagnant Economy:* UK GDP per capita has stagnated for over a decade, and the country recently entered a recession.
* *Self-Inflicted Decline:* Austerity measures, poor investment decisions (e.g., HS2), and policy flip-flopping have contributed significantly to the economic decline.
* *Rising Debt:* Despite austerity, government debt has continued to rise, leading to higher debt interest payments and further pressure on public finances.
* *Declining Public Services:* Public sector investment has been declining for years, leading to underfunded and struggling services like education and healthcare. This is expected to worsen in the coming years.
* *Brexit:* While not the primary cause, Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy, causing trade disruptions, uncertainty, and a decline in foreign investment.
* *Inflation and Housing:* High inflation combined with stagnant wages and rising housing costs have significantly eroded living standards.
* *Regional Inequality:* A stark regional divide exists, with London significantly outperforming other regions. This inequality is expected to worsen.
* *Productivity Puzzle:* The UK has experienced a significant decline in productivity growth, contributing to its economic woes.
* *Bleak Outlook:* The future looks grim, with the prospect of higher taxes, further austerity, and worsening public services.
i used gemini 1.5 pro for the summary
I cannot see an end to the UKs particularly British form of lunacy. I moved to Bulgaria.
bulgaria = a model of economic efficiency...lol
Very interesting. The UK is basically in a death spiral. The solution can only be to start by implementing the very best pro-growth and fiscally neural policies available. This would imply things like central government being able to completely sidestep planning for building critical infrastructure, significantly loosening barriers to building new housing (and creating a strategy for how new housing should be accompanied by corresponding infrastructure such as schools and clinics), commitments not to change taxes within a parliament except in case of emergency, negotiating a customs union with the EU and stopping the self-sabotage of e.g. our higher education (which we do by treating students/customers like immigrants and turning them away). Then one can move to fiscally quasi-neural policies like loan guarantees for critically important sectors and finally getting some funding allocated to investment (technological base and sovereign wealth fund). It's a long and arduous road where multiple cards must be played very carefully at the right time... My guess is that if the next government does everything right we could see the UK stop declining at the end of the next parliament... but then again I'm not that optimistic!
Nice summary
Let’s not forget about the safety of living in the UK
The problem of long-term sickness seems interesting - I've seen it mentioned in an number of videos but never with an explanation. Has this been studied? Is it mirrored in other countries? Some possible explanations come to mind - COVID, declining NHS, aging population. Curious to know if there is evidence showing what is happening here.
disability benefits can be very generous, eg 1.2k a month. Many of these disabled are just chancers, but who can blame them?
@@jonathanjonathan7386 Are you saying that the Tories have made disability benefits more generous and so more people are taking them?
@@JimFarrand no but more people are taking them, probably due to millions getting a taste of the joy of being paid to be idle aka furlough and others feeling resentful that they didnt get furlough.
I get low rate PIP, it’s not even £300pm. My total bring home on UC and PIP is 1.2K a month, that’s to pay my rent, council tax, bills and food. I’ve been a tertiary care patient for 8 years following a major surgery that couldn’t resolve a chronic disease. Most I could work was part time. Gave up when I started trying to die. Just had a 7 hour hospital in a tertiary hospital, so no, I ain’t lying.
You people are deluded if you think benefits are easy to achieve! They ain’t.
Sickness goes up with stress, and this country has been stressful for at least the last 14 years. Low wages, understaffed, high living costs. Healthy foods being expensive = decline in health.
@@CountryMusic19854 For the record, I don't think benefits are easy to get, and although I'm sure there is some benefits fraud in the UK, it's not a huge problem. According to the government's own data it's a fifth of what is lost through tax evasion and avoidance.
I work hard, and although it's tough and has got harder over the last few years, I would not swap with you - being able to work hard and earn a comfortable living is a privilege that not everyone has. And I pay my taxes with gusto because I like to think the country would support me and mine if were became unable to work. Though increasingly it seems that's not true.
David Cameron’s and the Conservative’s legacy. Let’s not forget George Osborne!
....luke warm pies.
You forgot to mention : Blair , Brown, May, Truss, and the very worst of the worst Johnson . Just remember Sunak inherited thirty years of stupidity , and while he may not be that great he's probably the best since Major .
I love the Euro to Pound Sterling exchange rate graph. It has two recent falls, one labelled "Brexit" and the other "Truss". Must be quite something to have a major international market movement named after you.
and a whole branch of economics...
Well she was compared to an iceberg lettuce. That’s pretty aspirational in itself 😂
@@expatexpat6531 Trussonomics. Soon to be resurrected by Jeremy Hunt perhaps!
I have been t old for almost 50 years that the Tories were good with our money, so what went wrong??
they became the lib dems
they lied
The opportunity to invest in this country was always ignored.
Self harm has come home to roost now.
they thought they could ramp up the cost of homes by 200%, and we would just carry on working productively....
nope.
My mum house has gone up from 99k, to around 650k, since 1999. 200%?
@@joelboy19 Account for Inflation
If you think a ex council house is half a million quid you have the problem not the bloke saying il give you 70k for it if your paying 1800 a month rent for a semi on a council estate and the council tenant next door is paying 450 wake the hell up the whole thing is a clown show
Well the demand is just simply too big.
i have a HND in electrical engineering but I cant move anywhere else in the uk due to the discrepancy in housing cost across the uk? social mobility is dead in the uk for over 40 year olds.
I had a heart attack in 2021. The ambulance took over 3 hours to arrive. When I got to the hospital, I was operated on straight away.
3 years on I am still under supervision of my cardiologist. I was supposed to see him last September, but this was cancelled at very short notice. My appointment was rearranged for April 2024, but this too has been cancelled now, with no reason given. The appointment has now been pushed back to July 2024!
There's too many old and/or people living unhealthy lifestyles clogging-up the NHS. (Unproductive) people are living too long and placing a disproportionate strain on the system and its finances for a disproportionate length of time.
Hope your ok mate, not sure how much that appointment would cost privately but maybe consider it (rightly or wrongly)
Experiences such as yours are the reason why the British love for the NHS remains a mystery to me. People seem to value "I don't have to pay anything to get treated" more than "I need to be treated in a timely fashion". Not to mention that the NHS does poorly when it comes to prevention and screening, which snowballs into greater problems for it later on.
Sorry to hear that, hope you are ok, I was told by my gynaecologist to go to india for quick and better care, it took nhs 4 months to get a ultrasound scan, now waiting for diagnosis, 1 year on, dont know whats going on, so yeh its pretty bad
Sorry to hear your story & hope you are doing ok. It´s hard to live in a third world country.
Great analysis…. Would love to see your analysis/predictions on the effect of different economic strategies to grow the economy. High taxation & Gov control Vs Low Taxation/ deregulation models etc.👍
Music to my ears.