How Republicans Won The Majority Of Latino Voters In Florida | FiveThirtyEight
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- čas přidán 14. 12. 2022
- As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024.
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I'm saying this as a Bernie supporter and immigrant, thank you for not saying "latinx".
Latinx 🥥
Let Tony Chow outta the Virtual Control Room you monsters
always enjoy hearing what Carlos has to say
This is a great episode, I like almost all of them but this is in the top-tier. Thanks for the great talk and information! Honestly, I wish I had half of Carlos Odio's charm and confidence.
I live in a whiter part of Miami and these shifts have been wild to live through
It’s not a surprise though. Apart from the Obama years which delayed the inevitable, FL has always leaned republican. It always puzzled me for a long time as to why Miami was so Cuban dominant yet took so long to be what it is now.
I normally listen to this as a podcast. Checked this out now that it was irl to see what Carlos looks like. NGL might just rewatch it on youtube, what a handsome man
Excellent, from start to finish (watch till the end!). Thank you for a podcast based on 538's core expertise.
One thing I find interesting longer-term is how polling accounts for shifting self-identification. An increasing proportion of those with Hispanic heritage are mixed and/or more generations removed from the immigrant experience. This leaves people with more of a subjective choice about how they want to identify. If there is any sizable difference between republican-leaning people-with-Hispanic-heritage and equivalent democrat leaning people, you may in time get a self-selection effect, in terms of who considers themselves Hispanic and who doesn't.
Long-term, it'll be like every other immigrant ethnic identity - the more generations removed, the less it matters.
From my understanding most immigrants don't vote , because you have to have USA citizenship to vote. Their USA born children might be encouraged to vote more than their parents. Depending how well party runs the state , will determine how people will vote. From my understanding republicans in Florida run Florida well so voters of all races vote more for Republicans into office.
Cubans who's parents/grandparents owned slaves out there before Castro.
One pet peeve of mine is referring to Latino as Latino or the use of the phrase LatinX. It’s a media and educational concept. But it failed to understand that if you call someone who’s Cuban, Mexican, that they’ll be very offended and vice versa. They’re uniquely different.
Now to over generalize something, I do notice that there’s a trend for males to move republican because of the over reliance on masculine messaging and this was a messaging process in abundance during the Trump years. His own insecurities led to a stronger message on being male and so insecure males flocked to Trump.
Latinx 🥥
I think what you’re seeing is that white Latinos Cubans and Latinos that much more on the lighter side like Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans are much more republican aligning. Mestizo Mexicans regardless of their culture seem to always align with Democrats.
But why the shift in the past few cycles? Did their populations just increase more?
No it not about skin color, it's as about economic class. If your rich , middle class or business owner your needs are more meet by Republicans. If your poor your needs are more met by democrats.
Why is the video so dark?
this is obvious and simple: the Dems are taking our vote for granted, plus Dems still see us as a monolith. This is the most succinct way of saying what was spoken here.
@@rowannagy3033 that is true and very well thought out, but as a member of the block with friends that are Cuban, el Salvadorian, Guatemalan, Ecuadorian, Puerto Rican , it came down to this simple answer: what have they done for us? Dems had majority for what two years, and nothing done on immigration or DACA, no legislation specifically to Latinos. Again simple: Action speak louder then words.
@@josefonseca6144 doesn’t help that republicans don’t have any particular history with Hispanics to keep them away like African Americans
@@josefonseca6144 Republicans didn’t pass any legislation specific to Latinos during the Trump years either and yet Latinos reward Republicans and punish Democrats? Democrats are pro-DACA and Republicans aren’t. So pro-DACA Latinos punish Democrats and reward Republicans because Dems don’t have the votes to do anything on DACA? Makes no sense. Neither party can even agree with itself on immigration so don’t expect either party to pass anything on immigration anytime soon. The only reason that Republicans have done so well with Florida Latinos in particular is because the socialist attacks on Dems have really stuck. No particular policy wins for Latinos from Republicans, just baseless socialist allegations.
@@josefonseca6144 How can they? I am a single issue voter, I want immigration reform for my Latin brethren, and the Democrats have not done that. What's the alternative? Vote Republican? Republicans are the reason the reform hasn't happened! The Democrats have the narrowest majority and do not have enough votes to get it across the Senate filibuster, and the Republicans want nothing more than to demonize immigrants and divide and conquer us. It is not for a lack of trying, there simply isn't enough votes in Congress to get the reform through into law.
@@josefonseca6144 Good luck with the new immigration champions, the Republican party.
I wonder what is going on with the Asian vote. I would love an expert to give their take as not much was mentioned before
I think there are small shifts, some more significant shifts in localized races. Education and crimes targetting asians are salient issues. Dems in CA keep trying to bring back affirmative action which harms Asians. Biden administration has been on the side of the Ivy leagues that discriminate against asians. Republicans on the side of asians regardless of their intent.
In NYC dems keep trying to change the admission policy for the elite public high schools as too many asians are getting in. Some DAs etc brush off crime targetting asians and seeing some backlash.
Republicans are putting in work with asians and it is shifting things eg. some races in CA.
Latino vote in Florida means cubans exiles.....which are a minority in every other state
Would Flores have won re-election if the district lines remained the same?
Can you guys do a podcast on Florida shift toward a strong Red state?? It wasn't that long ago when Obama won Florida, what change since then. This shift made Republican control of House and presidency much easier take. Did the recent migration from other states changed this or some other factor?
If folks don't get how many different demographics are in what is referred to as "Latino Voters" they should at the very least realize the Anti Casto Cuban population of Flordia has a unique set of priorities.
Fidel Castro is dead and Raul Castro step down.
Importantly though Desantis won Hispanics not just Cubans but Puerto Ricans. I never expected Osceola county to flip.
I have many different heritages in my background but I identify as American.
Republicans win the majority of Latino votes the same way they win any other vote, which is specifically by serving the BEST interests of the citizens. This is
of course what Trump did, and is the exact opposite of what Democrats do.
All you need to do is examine the results of each President. Trump had massive achievements on behalf of citizens, and idiot Biden has massive achievements very much AGAINST citizens -
This was great analysis, but they keep juxtaposing white and latino as opposites. It is possible to be both, and many of the Cubans they spoke of in the video are an example of this.
Cuz whatever is in florida’s water turns ppl stupid
In Texas, many 1st and 2nd generation Mexican Americans (MAs) are increasingly loving the God, guns, beer, and BBQ culture here. As we all should 😂. Unfortunately, that culture tends to push them toward accepting deceptive conservative talking points since those attractive aspects of the culture are trapped in the Republican bubble. To get to them, you must cross over and be ok with anti-immigrant rhetoric, rejection of informed academic principles, and other forms of right wing extremism. Also, many seem to want to distinguish themselves from common immigrants by opposing anything that could benefit them economically. Many don’t have more than a HS diploma and work in overtime-heavy blue collar jobs and misguidedly think Trump=economic prosperity. Other affluent-born 2nd-3rd gen MAs see themselves as white-assimilated conservatives and by opposing democrats it means they show that they are on top of the immigrant food chain. It’s like a brand. BUT these are the bad apples, most Texas Hispanics still vote majority D. Economically disadvantaged Hispanics becoming high earning college-educated voters are they key in future elections. Those who have known struggle and move into the middle class represent the most informed part of that electorate and are reliably blue.
They had God, guns, their own BBQ culture and beer culture way before they came to the US. You're not special...
Instead of wondering why a latino voter votes like this or vote like that, US politicians and journalists should be wondering why there is such a thing as a "latino voter" (or a "black voter", or a "white evangelical voter", etc...) Having Mexican people in your family tree does not make you Mexican. You are not part of a "community" just because your skin is black or white, just because you like boys or girls. The colour of your skin, the nationality of people in your family tree, your religion, your sexual preferences... should have few or no influence on who you vote for. This segregationist thinking should be rejected and not embraced. What Americans call "diversity" is in fact categorisation and communitarisation, which leads to division and polarisation.
It's either racial division or it will be class. And elites don't want not class war as the numbers for that don't favour them.
I'm not sure how seriously how to take your response, I'll opt to engage however. I understand where you are coming from as I used to think very similarly. What I eventually came to understand is this specific approach to the logic here is actually a bit accidentally backwards. This discussion is not attempting to guess or identify trends that occur because all 'X Voter Group' must choose Y, rather that the group tends to have certain commonalities that can help understand behaviors.
Obviously everyone in every group or outside of every group is and should be free to self-identify and guide their own existence. If you pay attention to what democrats are on about, that is honestly the core of the argument. Gender / Race / Sexuality / Anything else should not define you, what you want to be, and especially what you are expected or allowed to be.
This is more of a analytical approach that acknowledges that groups have commonality in experiences, culture, environment, shared values, all of which help explain and predict both past and expected future actions.
More succinctly; racism is much more salient and likely to be experienced by non-white people. It is also more more likely to be salient and more experienced by their direct family and friends. This fact can help you guess who they will vote for and why.
In general on a more personal level this has helped me in understanding a wider array of viewpoints and opinions, allowing me to get outside of my own head and lived experiences.
This is all likely a over-response and a unwanted one at that, I felt compelled to share though. Hopefully it helps.
Because latinos iiFlorida they are cuban and they all are republican😊
I may be left-leaning, but I'll admit DeSantis is one of the smartest politicians in the the country. America is becoming less white, and nonwhite voters more often vote Democrat. DeSantis knew that white voters wouldn't be enough to keep him in power, but his actions as Florida's governor and his self-appointed title of the Grim Reaper of woke got Hispanics on his side. Texas and Arizona Republicans should take notes.
Many Hispanics are white though.
@@blessing5173 I'm aware of that. I am a white Hispanic.
@@trueNordVPN
Lol white boi
One word: Cubans.
Cubans + venezuelans.
Cubans have been in Florida for generations and have always leaned right. Venezuelans are newer and are more republican then say Puerto Rican voters for example.
@@donmountford797 werent smart enough to get trump cut remittances to Cuba so their own people suffer. They need therapy for self harming.
That’s why deSantis was lambasting when Colombia have a leftist president
@@impaler9435 + Colombians
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Latinos for the GOP is like roaches for Raid.
Latinos don’t want socialism, we’ll most.
By media saying latinx.
Latinx 🥥
Maybe because their not that bright. I'm just saying Florida and Latino, im just saying two Paes in a pot.
TRUMP 4 EVER 2024