The best leadoff hitter that doesn't lead off
Vložit
- čas přidán 28. 05. 2024
- Jimmy’s Three Things is a production of Dan Patrick Productions, Jomboy Media and Workhouse Media
#mlb #baseball #strategy #hitting #batting #yankees #dodgers #running #sports #highlights
0:00 Topics
0:56 Worst leadoff walk team
9:16 Best leadoff hitter that isn’t leading off
15:31 Run on contact or no?
26:54 Highest and lowest pitches to be hit
Download and subscribe to the pod!
Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/TalkinBaseballApple
Google Podcasts: bit.ly/TalkinBaseballGoogle
Spotify: bit.ly/TalkinBaseballSpotify
Stitcher: bit.ly/TalkinBaseballStitcher
Buy merch: shop.jomboymedia.com/
Subscribe to the JM Newsletter: jomboymedia.com/email
Leave current breakdown suggestions here: bit.ly/BreakdownSuggestions
Leave past baseball breakdown suggestions here: bit.ly/pastbreakdownsuggestions1
Subscribe to our other CZcams channels!
Jomboy Media: / phshockey1
Talkin' Yanks: / @talkinyanks
Laughs from the Past: / @laughsfromthepast
Jomboy & Jake Radio: / @jomboyjaketv
Wake n Jake: / @wakenjake
Follow us on social media!
FB: / jomboymedia
TW: / talkinbaseball_
IG: / jomboymedia - Sport
Love these Jimmy. It’s like when I find myself down a Wikipedia/baseball reference rabbit hole but you actually have structure to it
wasting time instead of focusing on improving your own life
Deep dive idea: dropped third strikes. Most hitters nowadays let the catchers tag them out or jog slowly to first base to let the catcher throw them out. Things to search:
1. What percentage of dropped third strikes result in a hitter getting on base?
2. What percentage of dropped third strikes are due to a wild pitch (pitcher's error) or a passed ball (catcher's error) or neither?
3. What percentage of dropped third strikes result in a wild throw from the catcher to first base (catcher's throwing error)?
4. What percentage of hitters who get on base from a dropped third strike score later that inning?
After looking around for a resource that could show leadoff walks to run correlation, I just decided it would just be easier to go to the deep dive expert himself. Huge fan of everything JM does so it was super cool to be in a video! Thanks Jimmy!
Is “Stats that exist but do not matter” officially dead? Would love a revival episode. Love all the content lately 👍🏼
Would be a good tack on to Jimmys 3 things if it is no longer it’s own show
the stats that dont matter generally rears its head later in the season, i think?
We upgraded to 'Stats that matter' now
@@pranavarora9976 your name sounds Indian to me. I wonder what's an Indian doing on a baseball video. Is baseball a thing there?
@@peterparker-zy9oe not really, I just ended up following baseball personally after playing some games and watvhing some movies in 2021
As an O's fan who loves your content so much i went to watch talkin yanks right after this and hear the immediate discussion about the wall, I have an idea for a breakdown. How about something around how many homers would only have been a homer in OPACY the last 3 years of the old dimension vs how many would have been homers in 29 other parks the first three years with new dimensions
So glad that this became a regular show, Jimmy at his best!
This is my favorite content that JM currently produces. Thanks Jimmy.
“You’re not buying into this Bill James BS are you” 😂😂
Awesome video! Love the content
I recognise Nimmo's work when i see it lol. Nice to see his ability to bait the walk in a stat like this.
Love the video as always! Just something to note for future vids, about 1/8 men (I among them) are red-green colorblind (to some extent), so when showing graphics like the leadoff walks sheet, it is very helpful to use a different color scale (blue-yellow for example). I know red-green color-scales are very common but it does make it tougher to see for a non-trivial part of your audience. It's not something talked about a lot but thought it'd be good to know. Thanks!
As a dodgers fan it doesn’t shock me at all that they are the worst when it comes to running home from 3rd
But I also knew we were gonna be at the top of the leadoff charts
@@barkdongston5814yep
i feel like lead off walks do damage is one of those ideas that we all believe since it’s already a saying. like we notice it more when it happens
Well it does happen a lot
Thank you for the "run on contact from third" deep dive! This has frustrated me also. The only time it really makes any sense to me is if you have runners on 2nd and 3rd. If the runners hold up and the defense records the out at first then you will have runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 or 2 outs. If the runner from third tries and is thrown out then you will have runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 or 2 outs. Not much difference. If you have a really speedy runner on third I can maybe see sending him on contact. But usually it just seems like a dumb play.
You should do a deep dive on why dogs are so much more delicious at the park. Like how restaurant ranch is so fire but home ranch is mid asf
You just blew my mind about the ranch. So damn true
What was that first part
@@SharvictusI believe he speaks of hot dogs eaten at a ballgame not of any canines being consumed at a park. 😮
Buy the cold ranch from the produce section not the dry shelves. Tastes better IMO
They’re steamed, I think that’s the only difference
Another example of the contact play was from Cards vs Mets this weekend. Lindor running on Winn's 100+ mph from SS
Really fun stuff Jim. Like seeing that the Red Sox near the top in lead off walks, but then seeing how few they converted into runs, compared to the league. Good stuff man
Deep Dive Idea: Since the change of DH, where before, a pitcher would have to go at bat and possibly face retribution for hitting a batter previously, and now with every team with DH, what's the impact of batter hit by pitch / charging the mound? Should we go back to no DH? hopefully this make sense, english isn't my first language
The contact play seemed to work on swinging bunts, broken bats, high choppers in these examples. Or on a bad throw, juggle, etc. The India play was an out, he just boinked it…I’ve always felt the ROC play was dumb. And very frustrating to see your team run into an out! Thanks for the great stuff as always!
Love it! How about innings where there’s a hit by pitch and the team scores / doesn’t score? Would love to see which team gets the most fired up for their teammates, and which team just says “please don’t hurt us anymore!” 😅
20:00
Love these deep dives! Would've been cool if we could see a ranking of the opposing team's defense. Which teams prevent the most runs in the situation and which teams allows the most runs. Maybe you see which teams you should and shouldn't run on. Keep up the great work Jimmy!
On the lead off walks question, I would want to see what the numbers look like on the pitching and defensive side. How often do lead off walks affect the team that gives them up
The run on third plays are so fun no matter what happens. Electric of your team gets the out and electric if your team gets the run.
Would love to see the time from bat to glove if that’s possible on the run on contact. Also angle off the bat. If you could have one that hits the ground at a steep angle that might give an advantage
I always learned this as 'the move up play' If there is a runner on second and you are on third with less than two outs, you run because even if you're out, the runner on second will advance behind you and the team still has a runner on third. It may be the best chance to score that inning so you take it, and if not you're compensated by still having a runner on third. The same could be said if there's a runner on first as they will move into scoring position behind you. With bases empty though you definitely have to wait.
I looked through the comments and didn't see this explanation
It’d be interesting to look into how often people with the sliding mit are actually sliding headfirst. I’ve never seen Judge dive but he has the mit on it seems only to swat balls out of the air.
Eric Fedde started his White Sox career with FIVE straight in-division starts. Could br a fun deep dive to see the longest streak of in-division starts.
Jimmy, are the Mariners the worst team with the bases loaded? Because it sure feels that way.
They are the best pitching
Naaah they're 9th in OPS with bases loaded and 16th in batting average. They're down to 18th in RBIs with bases loaded though
@@slipknot80210 thanks, RBIs is what matters really, I wonder if it just feels that way because of when it seems to happen to us, like late in 1 or 2 run games?
I think the Dodgers are
Love the show, Tuesday highlight for sure. I have a stat dive that I haven’t been able to attack, maybe you and Katie Sharp can get it solved: “Which team’s relievers are best at immediately recording an out when entering a game?” The tough part is relievers enter in the middle of innings and that’s what’s got me hung up in my query so far. Savant doesn’t have a pitch count metric so it’s hard to get a flag that identifies a reliever is throwing his first pitch.
Plate-X must be the horizontal axis (insideoutside) and Plate-Z is the vertical axis (highlow).
Jimmy, using excel is really nice to show the audience what you want to show them, but it’s almost certainly better to do all of your functions and sorting in python. I’d highly recommend using pandas data frames
I’m getting my degree in statistics, and trust me, my life is so much easier with pandas
Your comment about “WTF… is this just an AL East thing?!” Got me thinking about other ways to compare the various divisions
I’m a big fan of this series!!
As a Twins radio fan, I've noticed Dan Gladden constantly mentioning the contact play, which seems always to be ON for the hometown nine. Yet, they get thrown out at home all the time. Shouldn't there be a "safety-contact" play, as in see where the ball went before taking off?
And another question is how often does playing the infield IN work or fail? It seems rarely to benefit the Twins but they always do it in the traditional way.
Could we get view access to these sheets? Great stuff!
Completely random, but I would love for you to do a deep dive and figure out what was happening with the 1880 Troy Trojans. All of their catchers had insane amounts of passed balls, even for the era. 5 of the team's catchers had super high passed ball totals.
What caused this? Were they actually bad? Did the pitchers throw pitches that were hard to catch? Was the field the problem?
Mickey Welch had a league average 2.54 ERA that year in 30 starts, but his average was 5.03 when counting unearned runs. The team somehow went 41-42.
The Trojans were 21-2 vs the leagues 2 worst teams, 20-40 vs everyone else.
Would love to see a deep dive on steals. Maybe which teams steal the most/least in clutch situations? E.g. 8th inning or later, runner on 1st/2nd, tie game/down by 1
I think it would be interesting to do a deep dive on which hitters are the best/worst at home and best/worst away, and then which hitters have the biggest change in their numbers between their home and away games. I wonder if theres some sort of correlation there amongst the guys who it applies to
Deep Dive maybe? I was looking at your spreadsheet during the first segment to look at my Pirates and to no surprise I see we are at or near the top for LOB and SO. My thought for the first month of the season is that the hitters must have been told to put an emphasis on working counts and running up pitches. They seem to strikeout looking A LOT, they almost never swing in 3-0 counts, and I know seeing pitches is great but what is the point of getting into a hitters count if your not going to swing? It kind of looks like the bat has been taken out of their hands. Any interest in looking into that? Correlation in teams that do or do not swing in certain different counts, and maybe Ks looking. Obviously we will find the worse teams striking out, but I wonder if there is a way to correlate that to "approach" just by using stats.
What a job by Fortes. Hit and run to PERFECTION
@12:19 you have Justin Turner listed as BOS but should be TOR
I know Kwan wanted to emphasize power more coming into this year but I’m shocked that he’s only got one leadoff walk
These rule, would love to see the most dominant pitch by a pitcher ex:
Striders slider
Kershaw's curve
Rivera's splitter
keep these coming
This data needs clarification.
Does the stat tell us THAT SPECIFIC BATTER who drew the walk crossed the plate?
Because things can skew this data. For example: a batter can draw a lead off walk, then the next batter could ground into a double play. Then the third batter up hits a solo home run. So the lead off walk did not lead to a run scored. But the team still scored in that inning.
So I’m curious about that.
I found at least one of those stats are wrong on your spreadsheet. The Giants don't even have that many wins the day I am making this comment, let alone two days ago lol. I don't know how many of those stats are wrong, but it makes me skeptical on your data
Mookies stats across the board are the best he's ever had, and it's crazy.
I would say most of those contact runs from the Yankees must be situational. Most of them were with 1 out, and guys on 1st. I'm assuming the logic is, base hit scores a run from 2nd regardless, its 2 outs either way, might as well take a chance on an errant throw at home.
The only one I couldn't explain was guy on 3rd with 1 out and nobody else on. In that case it just seems worse to have 2 outs with a guy on 1st, rather than 2 outs with a guy on 3rd.
"colorado nothing to lose" 😭😭
Great video, you’ve changed the way I watch baseball to look at much more detail.
Something to look into: Is Julio Rodriguez bad? It seems that every time he is up when it matters (close game/7th or later) he gets super aggressive and strikes out swinging at bad pitches. The eye test says he is a greater player and is fun to watch but I can’t keep watching him come up with the game on the line and swing out of his shoes.
He did very well in clutch situation last year. It’s only a month, he is 23, he is still learning.
Can we get some mariners starting pitcher stats? They’ve been on an insane run against some really good teams the last couple weeks
A deep dive idea: do umpire mistakes lead to a lot of benches clearing.
Leadoff walks being "a killer" just sounds absurd. What about a leadoff single. Imagine the manager seeing the leadoff guy get on first base and thinking "ahh that's a rally killer" unless I totally misunderstood and this is from the perspective of the defense?
Before I even watched this i knew exactly that the Astros were going to last in leadoff walk/hits and runs scored. Its been such a frustrating experience watching them play. They either load the bases or put 2 runners on so many times and do nothing with it.
Is the reasoning behind the runners going that the out at first is a guarantee, so Boone is maybe seeing it as putting pressure on the defense instead of a more routine play at first?
I know someone came up with a quality at bat stat, but I can't find it. Help! Which team takes the best AB's?
Lol need access to these google sheets!
I like that you're getting more into some statistical analysis like this, although you should really consider expanding your dataset and/or grouping differently to be more meaningful. Grouping into teams is great and all, but if your totals are this small, your data has very little credibility. If you want to answer the question "Does getting a leadoff walk result in better outcomes," you should definitely consider using more years of data, and maybe looking at team splits AFTER you have an overall analysis.
What about a deep dive on walks with 2 outs, nobody on. Usually 2 out walks lead to damage
It's not really running into an out because if you don't run the out will be at 1B. It is a matter if positioning on the bases. With one exception, all of these were with one out so they protect runner on third with one out situation which is far more valuable than runner on this with two outs. I think every one involved a second baserunner because even with out at home instead of first, still have a runner in scoring position, and one runner in scoring position is way more important than a second when down one or tied. In 1st and 3rd and zero outs situation, other team has to trade an extra out to attempt to avoid the run. Worst case is 1st and 2nd one out, which is way better than potentially 3rd and two outs if you don't go for it. Don't mind the strategy when used in these situations even if less than 50%.
This is right, I learned it as 'the move up play' even if you're out the runners move up behind you to take your spot in scoring position
new Three Things! Yay!
This was cool, use excel tho, sheets is buns
The 3 outcomes would work If players hit 150 plus hr every year.It empowers the pitchers that can give a free walk and strikeout the others in line.The game has become to pitcher-centered with this sabermetrics
I LIVEEEEE FOR THESE HOLY HELLL MY INNER NERD
also… I was a leadoff hitter 🤣
This is probably hard but the value of an out at any point of a game (inning vs lead/deficit) would be a cool stat. Wait that’s probably a manipulation of net win probability of any out.
good vid
Your brain is awesome Jimmy
I have been arguing with my dad that in extra innings if you only need 1 run to end the game. With the runner starti g on second base, 2 bunts win the game 9 times out of 10. His argument is the suicide squeeze is not effect. The video showing how close the plays are at the plate with hard hit ground balls is further evidence the suicide squeeze would secure the win more often than not. Bring back the bunts!!!
i dont really think its fair to discount plays where the runner is going on contact just because they could have scored if they had waited. also thers got to be a bunch of hits to the outfield where they did go on contact but again it didn’t matter. you should analyse how likely they are to score “when the runner goes on contact” whether the batter hits a ground ball out or not. because the manager has no idea what type of contact the batter will make when he tell the runner to go on contact but if boone is right that “50% of the time when we tell the runner to go on contact we score” then thats a different concept to what you were studying
@29:30 just looks like a cricket swing
Let’s do an episode on hitting coaches 😭
Can't you search for scores > 1 since it would be a solo homer?
It says Justin Turner plays for the Red Sox on this chart. Isn’t he a blue jay???????
That’s more than a sip, Jimmy
Ozzie’s literally golfing
Tauchman moved up when Belli got hurt
Weird that the sheet has SEA at 14-15.
W/o watching yet, the Tigers have to be one of the worst at scoring a lead off walk
How can a walk be a bad thing?
Jimmy Nimmo is literally next on the list. Why did u go anywhere
Just nice to hear the Rockies be called the “best” at something when they are so terrible at everything else.
Brandon nimmo affect
If you don’t get on base, you can’t score.
All this to show that the Red Sox won the mookie betts trade
czcams.com/video/4-OWLqTOvro/video.html Oh no, Jimmy fell into a black hole. Goodbye Jimmy. It's been good.
The no outs no runners situation follows every no out home run, not just a leadoff home run. If the team bats around the order with no outs, after a HR the next guy is no runners, no outs.
as jimmy says you are still effectively leading off though.