Israel’s Options, Plus Navalny’s Legacy and Ranking the US Presidents, with Dan Senor | GoodFellows
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- čas přidán 20. 02. 2024
- Why did Vladimir Putin call for an “inter-Palestinian meeting” in Moscow? And has Israel drawn a red line regarding a hostage release and an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah? Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast and author of two books on Israel, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson (live from Jerusalem) and John Cochrane to discuss the moving parts and global ramifications of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that: remembering the late Alexei Navalny and what the future holds for Russian political opposition amid Putin-brand fascism; America’s “trust” credit rating as it reneges on promises to friends and allies; plus George Washington’s recent demotion to third-greatest of all US presidents.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
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John's comment about whether we parents trust our government to take our children to war is spot on. Just look at the recruiting struggles of our armed forces.
But I think that has more to do with the children than the parents.
@@smithb0134 Yeah !
Trump told them that the heroes who defend our country are suckers. Who would want to join US forces under such leadership?
Ask war criminals Bush and Cheney.
I am a 77 yr. Old Vietnam Veteran. I joined the USAF at 18 years of age, and ended up in SEA in 66-67 during Rolling Thunder. We, (The USA) dropped over 850,000 tons of bombs on the north. We lost 56,600 young men in that conflict that was started on a false premise. I went to college after service and studied the history of Vietnam. It was absolutely insane that we went to war in that country. They had been brutalized by the French, and the Japanese for years. Ho Chi Minh was their George Washington. He adopted the US Constitution Verbatim. There was no Internet back then, we were the children of the heroes that won WW2, and we trusted our government. I have never trusted them again, about anything. The scumbags we send to Washington are all about money. Money they get from the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. That's all we make here in the US, War Materials. Eisenhower warned us, we did not listen.
This is a great service you provide. Very thoughtful and informed insight as always. It’s becoming more and more difficult to find intelligent and articulate sources of information in the US that aren’t dripping with propaganda from one side of the political spectrum or the other. So, I always look forward to these episodes.
Exactly this type of idiots will bring Israel's future into deep trouble. 😂😜🤦♀️🤷♂️
So refreshing to hear intelligent, courageous people
This broadcast is amazing. Wish it was longer.
it is so refreshing to see such a deep detailed and thorough analysis instead of mainstream media bs.
Imagine being a young guy, without a proper job, without a home, without education and without a family, if they are asked to die in a war, what do you think the answer will be? This is very clear to me.
Awesome as usual! Thank you, gents!
Note to self. Do not invite a podcast host onto a panel “discussion”. Dan’s ability to talk without interruption is next level. Good grief.
I'm a great fan of GoodFellows and think this episode has to be one of the best.
Extremely insightful discussion of the political and military minutiae from your guest - will definitely hop onto his podcast. I hope this is replicated in the future. Goodfellows is excellent by default, but this episode goes beyond even that.
Excellent discussion.
What exactly would a defeat of Russia, and a victory of Ukraine look like? These are sweet words with no probability of actualization.
It would look like Europe pulling it’s individual and collective finger out. It would look like a $50 trillion, population 0.5 billion collection of civilised countries confronting the sickly and dangerous asiatic despotism with the certainty that it will not win. It would look something like Gulf Wars 1 and 2. It would look like sending ALL the Cold War weapons where they are needed, to the people that need them NOW. The probability of its actualisation , the costliness of its actualisation in money, bloodshed and misery grows the longer this goes on and the more success Russia has. Putin will not stop and neither will Poland. Wishing this away with notions of appeasement will encourage more of the same.
Assange anyone?
Oh. That recording. In a time sorely lacking in heroes - Navalny took my breath away with that final scolding look.
A supremly brave man. He could have stayed in the West and just 'harped from the sidelines' !
Absolutely chilling and powerful.
And then wise men in clipped Scottish tones get to adjudicate on the man’s miscalculation.
You guys are 🤡
Another great discussion guys. Please keep up the great work. Looking forward to Niall's observations after being in Ukraine and Israel this year.
Love this show!
Prof. Steve Kotkin should be the one to interview Putin.
The president who stepped down voluntarily after two terms, initiating the tradition, was ranked *below* the first president to overstay two terms, initiating the Constitutional amendment to codify it?
I do not agree with the hysteria over Tucker interviewing Putin.
Fantastic as always, Fellows! 👍
You guys need to be on WAY more often!!!
I would have left out the senior advisor to Bremmer in Iraq thing in my bio 🙂
It's ridiculous to think of geopolitics as a place where countries, even friendly countries allied by treaty, "trust" each other. If your country is not indispensable to U.S. interests, then you had better find a way to make your country indispensable.
Yeah but you bet not all countries are the US, so imagine a united ALL, against an isolated USA.
Taiwan not stupid.
The Westphalian Peace, a concept and structure which predates the USA.
Another Great discussion. Thank you
16:18 Syrian red-line crisis needs MUCH more discussion by serious people. We need to know what led to that, why it happened, how it can be fixed, and how to properly implement fixes to make sure mistakes like that don't happen in the future.
Obama’s attempted CIA regime change in Syria. (CIA Operation “Timber Sycamore” 2012-2017)
Thanks for this! May you also share a tribute for Gonzalo Lira
Russia seems culturally unable of democratising. Individual Russians, like everyone else, will act democratically in a democratic country, but the culture of that country seems intractably given to despotism. Of greater interest is how democracies can die. Western countries are losing confidence in democracy because our educators don’t lead children to see that all the great achievements of our civilisation vastly outweigh its faults and mistakes. Instead, they focus only on the latter and even greatly exaggerate them.
I don't think that's true. If anything the guys doing all the "woke" ideology stuff are even more committed to democracy, they vote in very high percentages. They are just so ideologically captured by social media, that they can become authoritarian without realizing that they are doing it.
Great dialogue!!!!!! Love it, as always.
As a South African who lived through apartheid, I’m fascinated with the notion of the “brutal Afrikaner”. Kudos to John who pointed out that they didn’t kill Mandela. What is going on in Russia makes apartheid look like a welfare organisation. The Christian, and more specifically the Huguenot heritage of Afrikaner nationalism is infinitely preferable (albeit deeply flawed) to the brutality of Russia’s leadership and corruption. Never forget that the deKlerk government negotiated themselves out of power and gave up a far more viable state for what we have to day - hapless and corrupt socialism
Can someone please interview Bill?
Marvellous again
Israel has to be the #1 priority for every patriotic American!
Terrific conversation
my faves!!!!! God bless you all
25:50 I don't think Cochrane gets the reason why Egypt is desperately trying to keep Palestinian civilians out. It's not to increase their suffering, but because every Arab state knows that if the Palestinians are forced out of Gaza, they will never be allowed to return. It's that simple. They all fear a second Nakba. And given the Israeli government ministers' statements of wanting to both settle Gaza, and scatter the Palestinian inhabitans across the world (I believe Netanyahu wanted Western countries to take 30k each), then its not an unreasonable fear.
I wish COL Doug McGregor could jump in and give his military perspective. We have tremendous problems here at home. Please wake up.
I think people in the West have lost sight of the necessity of fighting sometimes. After WWII, the West has engaged primarily in wars of choice. The public has been conditioned to this. History teaches that war is necessary at times. Words like "existential" get tossed around all the time, but in Ukraine and Israel they absolutely apply. I'm no fan of war and not a hawk, but in these cases war pursued to its end is necessary to resolve the problem. It's tragic and involves incredible human suffering and destruction, but it's necessary.
John Adams has to be no lower than third. Forget his politics and policies, the fact that he was the first person in history (as far as I have been able to discover) who was in power, wished to remain in power, yet abided by the results of an election won by his most bitter rival, and stepped down willingly.
I like the podcast, but I often get the feeling that these gents don't understand their GOP doesn't exist anymore. Not passing the international aid bill was not "complex politics", it was wild incompetence.
no they are out of touch or in denial or willfully denying reality.
+1
Conservatives such as those gentlemen unfortunately have nothing in common with GOP of today. Authoritarian-populistic right is the enemy of today.
Yes, the Republican party has become the American independence party of George Wallace in 1968. The white Christian nationalist party. The Republican party probably left me when John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, and thus began the GOP sidetrack into stupidity, populism and culture wars.
I agree with your point, but I listen to them because I’m an old white guy, too, & I fondly remember the good old days when the republican party actually went to the trouble of *acting as if* they actually had a well reasoned platform!😊
Incompetence? Or plain alliance with autocrat
Putin?
Given all the Western protests and demands to desist, it is a wonder that Israel is talking back to them , the West !
They should not be saying anything about what they intend to do !
US complicity in Netanyahu’s Collective Punishment.
Navalny is a martyr now. R.I.P.
A US or Russian one?
Amazing
Sorry to pop Niall's bubble but he has it backwards when he says that all the current crises are connected and they all need to be dealt with hawkishly simultaneously.
It's precisely because they're all connected and the biggest one of them that's yet to unfold in East Asia, US should preserve its strength and keep some powder dry by picking and choosing where to engage and settling the rest.
Failure to pe pragmatic here could result in an abrupt and unfortunate end of the Pax Americana that he so passionately reveres.
Niall Ferguson is a likeable man, but he's doing too many podcasts - it's really beginning to show.
the glazing of Isreal is crazy
Hello. Glazing?
@@victorkowalski8237Perhaps he means what Neil described as a “united” Israel. I’m not entirely sure what he means though- just spitballing.
term for complimenting to an extreme point. Kind of sycophantic but without an intentional ulterior motive, more so blind belief @@victorkowalski8237
ask your kids@@victorkowalski8237
Does anyone know similar podcast like this one?? I am trying to find other podcasts for daily news
Very good episode but I, being originally from USSR, can't help wondering why you keep naming Putin regime as fascist instead of communist. Probably because fascism is taken by the West much harsher than communism while I think the communism is worse despite my jewishness.
Without a two-state solution, they are going for a military solution only. Is this really purely a military problem?
Nope. I don't know why others cannot see that.
Of course it isn't purely a military problem. I don't think anyone honestly thinks that. But a two-state solution is untenable, for all the reasons outlined in this discussion.
A two state solution is not possible. The Palestinians clearly don’t want two states. They want one, a Palestinian state. No Israel. So yes, until the Palestinians have a complete change of mindset, military suppression by Israel of these Palestinian areas is the only solution.
@@bsmithhammer They made clear that the Israelis are not currently interested in a two-state solution, not that one is inherently untenable. If the Israelis can't replace Hamas government with another that is seen as legitimate and doesn't support terror, then they will get more terror. Israel doesn't seem to have any plan for post-Hamas governance. Any plan that is not leading to a Palestinian state will mean Hamas never dies or Hamas is replaced by another terror organization. The video argues that Israel should be able to finish the war by destroying Hamas even if this results any many civilians dying...but if there is no political solution to follow up Hamas's destruction, then those civilians died for quite little. Should U.S. tax payers support a country that is willing to kill thousands of Palestinian civilians but not wiling to make the compromises necessary to continue giving a two-state solution a chance?
@lonecandle5786 I think we have fundamental differences in expectations for what a “Palestinian state” would represent. Your presumption of a two state solution that benefits the Palestinian people, I don’t. If the “Palestinian state” created is non functioning and corrupt like other regimes in the region that does not produce an environment of less extremist violence. If the Palestinians are unwilling to support a leadership regime that is based on reality and state building as opposed to genocide and complete victory, then a two state solution could be palatable by sane parties.
A very pro Israeli podcast.
I have been a long time follower of Good Fellows and learned a great deal from your group and guests. That said, I was disappointed in this episode. I watched the full interview with Tucker Carlson and Putin. I felt that Tucker did what a good journalist does- he presented an important interview, asked questions, and let Putin speak. I have heard that he should have been more confrontational, asked harder questions, etc., etc. I believe if he had pushed too hard, Putin would have ended the interview, or worse. I thought Putin showed his colors quite nicely. Tucker was roundly criticized for his visits to Moscow areas and even more so for his apparent admiration for the cleanliness, appearance, safety, and so on of the city. His comments in Dubai were also demonized. If you take a moment to listen to his interview with Glenn Beck, you might come away with a different opinion. Tucker is justifiable angry (as am I and millions of my fellow citizens) at what our so-called leadership, even going back to before Biden, but especially since, has done to this country, which may never recover. We should not have to have a totalitarian government to have clean, safe cities where the trains run on time. At no time did I feel Tucker was pro-Putin or allowing himself to be taken in. Dan Senor's commentary of Tucker was off base.
this didn't age well for Niall. As far as Navalny goes, have a look at what some of his detractors have to say about him, open your eyes ffs.
“Brilliant” conversation.
H.R. McMaster, we are desperate, with all the international and fiscal challenges in front of us. Please run for president. Please lead America.
John Cochran just unabashedly doesn’t understand anything about human beings, and I kinda like watching it 😂
Do Raffa in.
Another great discussion! It's laughable to think that any American group of political scientists would even allow someone to join who is not fully leftist progressive and who can pass a pronoun test. LOL
And how is this right wing crowd any better? Where are the leftist progressives whom they are engaging with?
Munich insecurity conference 🤪
It amazes me how fast American intellectuals evaporate when it comes to Jews and Israel.
13:09 I think you'll find there aren't many economists in Gaza.
Oh, really? According to Aristotle, home economics is the core of economics. Do you maintain there isn’t home economics in Gaza?
However, there is a billionaire in the West Bank. Bashar al-Masri
Actually I think Tucker’s interview was not all that bad, in the sense that it helps people understanding what Putin is thinking and perhaps some of his mindset. I know some ppl not quite capable of critical thinking may fall into Putin’s stories, but I would rather to have someone making videos debunking Putin’s stories rather than Putin not saying his stories.
Some ppl think Tucker “slide” with Putin because Putin is against woke. Perhaps there’s some truth in it. But blimey, can ppl ever learn from history? Is Stalin good? He is horrible. He was ally of US in WWII. If Tucker really did it for woke war, it’s he should USE Putin (I doubt if Putin can help fighting against the woke war in US tho lol), but not he is being used by Putin 😂
Question for Niel:
who is on this Trump National Security bench shortlist. Some names here would be great to see.
Russia is not fascist regime. As to Navalny, his popularity dwindled after his derogatory remarks about non Russian ethnic groups, At his best, his popularity reached only 27% of votes. The communist party is the biggest opposition (only 17%) to current regime. Minister S Jaishankar (of India) pointed out the government should be elected not forcefully changed.
All my prayers go to Israel - always,
12:46 "I don't know what that means." No one does. That's how you have to act as President. As much information as you have, there's always more information. Which means by definition every decision you make leaves a certain amount of detail up in the air. But bold leadership IS needed.
"To be an enemy of the US is dangerous to be an a friend is fatal" Henry Kissinger. If this is the end result of the unipolar world is it any wonder the Pax Americana is crumbling.
Funny citation and with a grain of truth, ask the guys from south Vietnam... Still I prefer the US as an ally every day of the week.
"Word should be gotten to Nixon that if Thieu meets the same fate as Diem, the word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Kissinger
Without that narrow context, the quote is wildly misunderstood.
This is a very useful podcast, not least for showcasing right wing foreign policy experts and hawks confronting the prospect of a Trump presidency. They know he'll do what he perceives is best for Trump and that, if that means dumping Ukraine, he'll do it and yet they scratch around for excuses. 'The next Trump administration won't necessarily be isolationist. The last one wasn't.' was the best that the usually compelling Ferguson could come up with. Dan Senor basically shrugged his shoulders and said, in effect, 'fingers crossed'. That's not good enough. Show some spine boys and denounce Trump.
Saying Israel can do nothing about Ukraine shows lack of leadership. Bibi could have and still can side with Ukraine and the conflict would end sooner.
John's comment about Navalny's courage "not being seen since Christian martyrs of the 3rd century" ignores the tremendous courage of Dietrich Bonhoeffer, who in June 1939 left the safety of the U.S. to return to Nazi Germany. Bonhoeffer was arrested on April 5, 1943 and executed April 9, 1945. It would be particularly galling to Putin to compare his actions against Navalny to the actions of Hitler, as there is no one a Communist hates more than a Nazi. It must be because Nazis are serious competitors as Teacher's Pet to the Devil in Hell.
Looking at the white paper for the presidential rankings, the Democrat ranking for Donald Trump for Table 3: Presidential Greatness Ratings by Party and Ideology is the number of the mark of the beast...
Truman? Recognizing Israel? Seems like a never ending blunder.
Why, why, why, did this group dodge the Trump comment on NATO states and Russia. I understand they float above such trivial things, but normal people need a bit of attention to such statements. Even a comment like , "well it worked because see how Europe is rattled and talking about spending more in the last few days". But completely avoiding it seems like one more slip into an American oblivion by people who damm sure know better.
What was Trump's comment?
Don’t hold your breath about Tucker Carlson apologizing
it boggles my mind that not one of them can admit that getting the heck out of Afghanistan was a great move. a place we never should have been that had zero upside for us. and give credit to biden for being the one out of 4! presidents to get that done finally.
Navalny probably didn't expect to become a martyr because he expected Russians to be more supportive, e.g. to react with more outrage to the exposés about the attempted novichok assassination and Putin's palace. Russians reacted with curiosity and envy, but not outrage.
What are these meetings Ferguson and Senor have with Israeli officials? Both seem to be relaying what those officials said completely uncritically. Do you guys really believe IDF can eliminate Hamas, or is eliminating Hamas a coded reference to the expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza?
Ukraine does NOT want the US to fight in their country!! You got that totally wrong!
FDR is incredibly overrated
Worst President on civil rights and liberties in history! See the new book by David T Beito.
Perhaps the skills come from military training and experience.
Great comment on F. Carlson by Niall !
I see what you did there
How about giving the Palestinians a state in Southern Algeria? They could insulated there from most other people groups.
Give her nothing. Take away UN cover.
Tucker would get away with owning it. But he was made a fool.
⭐
@ 44:07 . . . Yes . . . this is what I keep saying over and over.
John, the majority of people against a to Ukraine couldn’t find a geographic spot outside of their own state, let alone outside of the United States. They have no interest, no desire, no concept of what happens in the world.
Against a what to Ukraine?
Disagree. Americans have a right to oppose $50B/yr in aid to a country that we have no vital interests in. Ukraine is not in NATO and until 2022 they were best known for being the 2nd most corrupt country in the region. But now, each household is required to pony up $400 annually?
p.s., I know where Ukraine is on the map.
@@JB-ti7blThey certainly have a right to oppose it, and I have no doubt they know very well what Ukraine is. The thing I cannot get my head around is how it's not worth 400 bucks to take the Russian military off the board? You do realize, all around the world our Allies are considering us unreliable, and are looking to China. I don't see how a world dominated by China is in your interest.
Ukraine should follow Israel's path to freedom
Ukraine simply doesn't have 75 years to constantly guilt-trip the West into giving them everything they want.
The 2 State outcome was never going to happen... ever.
Whining about mainstream media was boring, otherwise, downright exquisite. Dan was composed and interesting. Health and wellness to all
Can a Palestinian state be created by combining Jordan, Syria, and Western Iraq?
LOL.. funny...
Hamas has shat in its own nest ! So, Israel is done with the 'two state' ! But maybe, just maybe that was its intention all along by Hamas !
The strategy, I believe, was to provoke Israel, then maximize civilian casualties and convince Hezbolla to attack, triggering a multi front war. It clearly didn't work.
What a brilliant and well-balanced discussion. OF COURSE, Palestinians should NEVER have their own airport!!! OFCOURSE, Palestinians should never have any of their own military and of course the idea of Palestinian "sovereignty" must ALWAYS be understood in these ways. It's not as if they were actual humans!!! So ungrateful are the Palestinians (who of course don't really exist, since o one lived in Palestine before the mandate) after everything the Zionists have done for them!! A land without a peopl, for a people without a land!
If only Americans had the option not to support Israel.
And we'd still support them.
Very little Netanyahu has done could be characterized as self defense…War crimes in real time.
@OHOONO... If the Arabs put down their weapons today there would be no more violence ...
If the Jews put down their weapons today there would be no more Israel ... Golda Meir ...
AIPAC should be required to register under FARA.
I love you guys and usually give you the benefit of the doubt. But this particular conversation is biased and is strategically harmful to both US and Israeli interest in the long run.
And…? Your reasons? For example?
Navalny did a stupid thing. He sacrificed himself.
They do a pretty good job pretending to be brave then fail to even comment on Trumps ranking 😂
What about our southern border!!!!
What border? It’s Mexistan.
And to think Trump compares himself to Navalny…
waiting for go.
if washington is #1 then jefferson 'should' be #2.
Dear old Vladdy... fighting against Nazism in Ukraine and for Nazism in Palestine. 😮
from the other side this conversation looks like some tribal leaders discussing how one can be more brutal to settle scores..!!!
Tucker Carlson NEEDS to heed Niall's words here if he wants to preserve any scrap of integrity he could claim to still possess
Charlie Rose interviewed Putin multiple times. Do you think he deserves Treason charges?
Megyn Kelly interviewed him in 2018.
Anderson Cooper had him on multiple times.
Oliver Stone released a movie based on purely talking to Putin, called the Putin interviews.
Why do you not condemn any of these past interviews and only Tucker?
Why? Most people in the US and Europe didn't support continuing to prop up Ukraine prior to the interview. Why not expose people to Putin's P.O.V? Niall should worry less about Tucker and try to understand why the Ukraine war is so unpopular.
Tucker Carlson went up in the estimation of millions of people after his brilliant interview with Putin. Ferguson is unhinged when it comes to Putin, he sounds like Lindsay Graham or John Bolton on steroids. It really is sad to see people like Ferguson support neo-Nazi's & the extreme fascist Right & all because they've lost their mind & think Putin is Hitler & Stalin rolled into one. I've even heard these unhinged Ukraine supporters say Putin will be marching on Paris if Ukraine doesn't win. That's how unhinged the likes of Ferguson have become.
I wish Conservative commentary on the Middle East wasnt always so heavily slanted toward the Israeli perspective. On the Left you at least get some moderate Zionist takes but it seems like on our side of things you never get a more pro-Palestine view of the situation. Its always just pro Israel stuff which is a shame because an actual discussion on this topic is important.
Conservatives understand that people that kill kids at a music festivals, and are openly anti-Semitic, are not people to truck with. Conservatives believe in objective morality. Leftists, by their nature, have to resort to moral relativism, as they fundamentally believe that taking want you want from others is OK if you need it enough. So when conservatives see civilians dying in war they understand that Israel did not start this war, did not want this war.. but has to finish this war, even if it costs innocent lives. Leftists think "only 200 kids died at that music festival, so it's not right that 10,000 Palestinians should die.. Israel is bad". Conservatives will never think like that.
Show me a trusted judicial democracy in the region, and I'll have that conversation. Jordan still has a medieval King? Turkey and the UAE are backing genocide and ethnic cleansing in Ethiopia, and take a look at Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Conversation? With whom?