The reason Electric Cars will be cheaper than ICE cars in 2025
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- čas přidán 19. 06. 2024
- The reason Electric Cars will be cheaper than ICE cars in 2025
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BTW Viking love your videos. But…Minor editorial correction. It is Wright’s Law that has to do with economies of scale not Morre’s Law. Morre’s law covers the doubling of computer power every 2 years.
Minor editorial correction. It is Moore's law.
"Electric Viking" Law?
😏
Timestamp? I missed this.
That’s Wright
@@jefflittle8913@1:20
Fixing the old car is the best investment you can make
And most environmentally responsible as well.
That is true, although in my state with the amount of salt they use on the road, my last Camry only lasted 120k mi and it was always garage kept. It had to be scrapped, wouldn't pass inspection because of the rust.
Up too a certain point
My 1991 Mazda still going strong in Ottawa Canada 🇨🇦 where we use insane amount of salt.
I'll not buy an electric as the battery replacement costs are to expensive. Minor crashes often require $20 000 repairs...
The used car market has been all I could afford, I'm almost 40. A used EV costs way to much new and there is no way I'd trust the batteries or be able to afford the battery replacement. Global news had a guy in Toronto Canada I believe quoted fifty thousand dollars to replace the battery as his used EV would not charge at 170 thousand kilometers just past the warranty.
It makes no sense for those with low incomes to ever buy a EV as they are now
@@ZoomZoomMX3 Tesla batteries should last 300k miles, and they only cost 10k to replace on the Model 3 and Y. Some GM cars like a Chevy volt, I have seen insane prices to replace the battery. I'd only buy a Tesla. But, you are right about the cost to buy a new Tesla, its not cheap especially with interest rates. I'm saving $250 per month in gas, that's 40k in savings after 10 years, so if a new battery is 10k, i've still saved 30k. Hopefully the road salt doesn't ruin the battery until 300k miles.
I think what the video is saying will happen, but I think we're looking at a timetable of more like 10 years than 2.
And in 10 years, EVs will have been replaced by hydrogen, or by some form of very low emission fuel will have been devised which will prolong the life of ICE cars. I'm afraid, Sam you are delusional.
I would agree with you, batteries are still costing way too much and unless they come up with a longer range suv/truck , don't think people will be rushing to buy them
You are hoping! But if it doesn't a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money when they start scraping gas cars having no value.
Are you prepared to take that risk as 10 years is a long time in technology terms.
On the other hand, if Tesla releases a modestly decent $25K car, that could get me out of my ICE car into an EV. I also like that little Toyota EV pickup truck. ‘Course, they’re vaporware.
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Neither are vaporware. The Toyota is actually close to production.
@@freddybell8328 The Solid State Battery is also close to production. Toyota invented it in 2016! I am sure the truck will be sold in the millions by 2040!
@@freddybell8328Toyota constantly lies when it comes to future products. They lie so much I don't believe a word they say until it's on thr showroom floor.
@@Ry-lx2klTesla also lies constantly. I own a Toyota and a Tesla btw :)
Used to use a generator when wild camping, ive now got a bluetti battery pack ! Amazing , truly impressive performance 😊
Charge you car 3% per day from solar? Woo that's stone age
You still need fuel for cooking and heating when camping in cold weather. Going all electric in an off grid environment is foolish
@@i6power30I use my portable induction cooktop now when camping, plug it straight into my BYDs V2L outlet. Where we regularly camp on a friend's bush block by the ocean is only 90min drive from home. Plenty of capacity for multiple days cooking and comfortably make it home. And induction is heaps safer, much less weight/volume to travel with than a gas setup and cooks faster and better. If we're cold be have a campfire.
@@i6power30 It'ts called wood. It's what grandpa would have used only now it is called sustainable renewable biomass fuel......how modern.
@@Pneuma40 wood is not that convenient though.fresh cut wood doesn't burn very easily. Carrying dried and cut firewood to camp site that's not weight efficient at all. Best is still to use stuff like propane or butane
In the UK a 12v 100ah batteries were aprox £350 last month , this month £299 . Thats a drop of £50 in 4 weeks 😮😊
£200 by March, 2024.
@@chillfluencer What date do they start giving them away?
@@chillfluencer 🤞👍😉
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@@padgepadgham3238projections are for 40% cheaper by 2026.
I think you meant Wrights Law, in terms of the declining cost curve. But Moore's Law also plays a key part as it allows more transistors to be added to chips within a certain area over time, and allows technology to advance. So we get both more power / capability and a lot cheaper prices due to both of these laws.
I will believe it when it happens. Until then, I will remain sceptical .
@@robertfonovic3551 It’s already happening. Track the capability vs price last 10 years. If you aren’t seeing it maybe you’re clinically blind.
@@michaelwebsternzYeah, I’ve seen the invoices for battery replacements after failure, and none of those prices have come down. ❤
@@JetFire9 What invoices? Tesla batteries are under warranty for 8 years. Buy an EV from an inferior company and get what is deserved when the gouge on battery replacement.
Moore's Law doesn't say that, it's specifically about Transistors on Silicon chips.
When moore's law was usable for other stuff, like planes, we would all be flying now 😁😁
You're right, but there has been a consistent decline in battery price per kWh and consistent improvements in density. I don't know if it has an exponential function like Moore's law, but they keep improving, just like solar PV.
@@BMWHP2Moore's law does not apply to other things. You're thinking economies of scale which is another thing entirely
Applies to disks and pipes, too.
Wright’s law.
Good news is, the batteries will be for grid and personal storage as well. Great news
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Not in Tesla cars as that competes directly with the PowerWall product.
@@joebloggs6131 this is about the industry increasing battery production, that will effect all battery storage, not just Tesla
@@williamcrowley5506
If Tesla increases battery production to 3TWh in their cars, those batteries cannot be used for grid stabilization or personal use (V2L) as Tesla deliberately omitted these features from their cars because they have a PowerWall product that can do that.
Sam, I recall that when Lithium prices were high ,Tesla was praised for having locked in long term contracts at lower prices. Do you know whether those contracts are now out of the money and whether Tesla are taking an accounting loss on them?
Hi Sam,
I think one think you didn't mention is that the lithium is selling through long term contract so maybe we will see the decline in prices in the next years to come as the impact is less short term
Same thing that happened to computers is happening to batteries they went from a luxury to a commodity.
No matter how technology advances the nature of a electron cannot be changed. It's a charged particle that strongly repels other charged particles. This mutual repulsion means you cannot keep many of them in close proximity without making them "angry". When they get angry things can get heated, so to speak.
If batteries were the answer, autonomous all-electric locomotives would be a thing. Instead they run off of overhead power lines, or use an onboard diesel-powered generator to provide current. Locomotives would benefit from heavy batteries because weight = friction = traction on a steel rail yet heavy batteries are nowhere to be found there.
That is because batteries are the LEAST efficient way to do electricity in a high current demand environment. We've always known that .. yet still the insanity continues unabated.
Except the raw material for computer chips is fracking SAND, plastic(s) and copper. And are near negligible in the production cost.
The factories/tooling/process/research and yield are what make the cost.
This is the exact polar opposite of battery economics. Where near all he cost come from raw materials.
For computer chips the cycle between research/return on investment is extremly short.
Any new development comes to the marquet in just few month years then get cheaper to produce by the day. Because once the ingeneers and tooling has beenpaid for you just need more sand and copper to keep making money hand over fist.
EV are the exact result of what happens when you give a political solution to a technical problem.
Having european country guilt tripped for their 0.x% of pollution while the chinese and indian street sh1tters keep polluting like-if their was no tomorrow.
@@DeploraclePlease go and get a relavent degree or stop trying to educate others.
@@garethrobinson2275 I'll do whatever I like.
@@G_de_Coligny First sentence: change that copper into gold please....copper in such microscopic lines in a chip would oxidize very quick...
And battery economics? The newest battery tech, laboratorium still, as mad from sodiem (Na) and aluminium (Al) Sodium enough in the sea for being extremely cheap. Aluminium is also not very expensive.
And EV's are not special politics....
When I burn one liter petrol in a modern powerplant and use that electricity to run my EV I'll drive 3 times more miles than when I use that same amount of petrol in an ICE engine.
No one can be against more efficient usage of our energy resources.
And as a bonus...it makes us less dependable on oil states.
They are ignoring the inability of the electrical generators and the distribution network to supply the power where and when it is required for charging and the ability of ev manufacturers to supply the evs needed to replace the gas powered vehicles. The shorter service life and lower resale values on 5 to 10 year old EVs increases the cost of ownership and necessitates the production of new replacement cars or batteries. With out legislation and government incentives (especially in China where market forces are not the driver). It is certain that private vehicle ownership will be more expensive and pushed out of reach of many. The elite are looking at a seap back to the world before the car and freedom independence they bought to the westen world. We are being force out of our homes and back go the indentured servitude preliventin the early years of the industrial revolution. Where a dependence on public transportation and proximity to employment will see us in rental accommodation walking to work and paying for everything and never having ownership and the securities and freedoms of the past 70 years. Buckel up buddy and be happy.
Could not said it better. We won't be able to own anything
Shorter service life?
In general there is not much point in having service on an EV at all. Do it very rarely on my 2012 Leaf.
You never "owned" your house. You are only renting the right to use it. Try not paying your annual rent (property tax) or making changes to the property the owner (municipality) doesn't allow.
For those who own a home and can install an EV charger, doing INCREASES the electrical network stability and longevity because a bunch of the usage shifts to nights, balancing out capacity. EVs have a longer service life, with significantly fewer moving parts and much less ongoing maintenance than an ICE vehicle. No engine, fuel system, exhaust system, transmission, belts, filters (other than cabin air), etc. Batteries are warranted for 8/10 years, 100,000 miles and frequently last double that length.
@@charleshill7184 Many
EV batteries are going 400,000 or more and it looks like newer ones will be able to go 1,000,000.
It may be in the future that you keep the battery and stick it in a new body.
I run a 22 YO diesel car. It is super reliable. Super economical. And the spare parts are cheap.
Why diesel? Because it will always be available:
Military use. Emergency vehicle use (fire trucks etc), deep sea shipping. Trucks and long haul delivery. Long haul trains. Tractors and farming. Generators.
Good point. But the price probably will increase some.
I drive a 25 year old diesel 4wd, at some point I'll be swapping out the motor for an electric motor
Thats good for to environment, not having to mine and consume energy to create a new vehicle.Keep them going 👍
@@billybobwombat2231 - Sorry, Billy. If you're a US-based wombat, it's more likely that there will be another wasteful "cars for clunkers" program, and your beloved vehicle will end up going to the crusher. They'll make sure that you submit.
@justaskin8523 I'm from the Warrumbungle line of Wombats, thankfully not the Ozark line of Wombats, those inbreds live on fried chicken and have unhealthy relationships with their siblings
No body talks about insurance until very recently. Preiums for some ev`s in UK have increased more than 5 times.It seems one of the causes is the procedure required following accidents,together with the fact that they seem to be written off more readily than ICE cars.The issue of EV`s is complex , there being many factors to consider,it`s not just the cost of purchase. We shall see,the market will decide.
The UK insurance industry have a bug up their arse about EV risk. The Norwegian and Swedish insurance brokers have no such problems and EV ownership there is much higher. AS per usual rip off Britain lives up to its name due to greed and stupidity (buying into media lies) about Evs and risk.
Are you taking into account stationary storage? Unless they move away from lithium to for example sodium, I don’t see there being an oversupply for a very long time.
Stationary storage is already using LFP..
@@chrishaberbosch1029and LFP is Lithium iron phosphate aka LiFePO4
@@chrishaberbosch1029 exactly…lots of lithium needed…the video seemed to only take cars into consideration. I do think at some point sodium will replace lithium in stationary batteries but that could be years away.
ive spent 30 years in the mobile telecommunications space, and i can tell you there is no corollary between phones and cars. I drive a 16 year old car, and have a 2 year old phone.... My 16 year old phones are in landfill somewhere, and probably wont connect to a network.
He uses simple but inadequate analogies because most people aren't going to take the time to really investigate or think things through. We have to think for ourselves and stand up to this bs that's coming at us all the time.
@@harmony3138 Govt legislation does not create the electricity that would be required for this to happen. In fact, they continue to pass legislation that will reduce our production of energy. We will be screwed! China is building exponentially more coal plants as we are shutting ours down. We have incredibly corrupt and stupid leaders making the worst possible decisions, and we will be the ones to pay for it.
Is that the analogy? The point is that consumers will quickly adopt a superior product and demand for the old one will collapse.
Prices won't come down because companies will cash in.
Costs for them will come down, but that IS different
There is massive competition in the car market - makers won’t be able to make huge profits by keeping prices high, they will get annihilated if they do. Might work for low volume makers but the mass market ones will have to drop prices to keep/gain market share.
Trust me, it will come down, the old "fossiles" have to adjust to competition.
I agree with your timeline. Cost parity is the end ICE. only issues with EVs currently, Cost of batteries and charge rate. Both will be solved industry wide by 2025
Charge rate really isn't an issue except for on some really slow charging EVs like the Bolt, but even then it's only an issue when taking the occasional road trip a few times a year.
Stopping for 20-30 minutes every 3-4 hours isn't really going to slow travel down that much
And the amount of time saved over the course of a year not having to go to fill a gas tank compared to just plugging in at home is going to be vastly more than the time lost with forced breaks on road trips
@pdxmarine1430 for the better EVs, you're correct. And it is only an issue if traveling, but it is a big psychological barrier for many people. 200 miles returned in 10 min should be sufficient for mass adoption
@@pdxmarine1430 ... that is EXACTLY my own experience! 👍
@@jplabrecque6708 Most EVs now are charging 20%-80% in about 20 minutes. With a 350 mile EV that's 210 miles, or 3 hours at 70mph in 20 minutes. EV ranges are only going up, and charge times are only going down. 20 minutes for 200 miles is already plenty good enough, but it's only going to get better
With uk EV car insurance costs rising to huge premiums. Many will no longer be driving or driving illegally. Due to the Battery fires and sealed structural battery packs.
😢Nope that’s utter rubbish my EV costs £25 a year more than the same petrol model
Utter rubbish, my EV insurance in the UK went up 10%, my wife’s ICE car went up 15%. The ICE car is 5x more likely to spontaneously combust.
The cost of ICE car insurance is also increasing, in case you hadn't noticed...... Personally I'd be more worried about the 10'000 ICE cars that catch fire each year in Britain if I drove one. So far in Britain there have been fewer than 100 EV fires in total. Try checking the online call out log of the Bedfordshire Fire & Rescue service, who put out the huge fire at Luton airport recently. So far this year they have attended almost 1300 ICE car fires, and zero EV fires.
@@Brian-om2hh But Mr. Brain of Britain. You can easily put a petrol car fire out and it hardly impacts on the cars in close proximity, on the other hand, an EV fire burns at a much higher temperature, is almost impossible to put out and incinerates all the cars close to it, unfortunately if they too are EV's the whole thing grows into an uncontrollable disaster. Did you not see what happened to the Luton car park? Or the ships car transports. In conclusion, it hardly matters what causes the fire, once an EV gets involved, that fire becomes a disaster, possibly a daisy chain disaster.
Recent interviews with EM point toward a huge slowdown. Most of that battery "spare" capacity you're talking about will likely go directly into grid/micro-grid storage solutions. Australia is currently struggling to prevent electricity supply shortages as we blow up our coal power plants and drag our feet with viable replacements. Electricity supply is going to be one of our biggest hurdles...and availability of charge points that can charge your EV fast enough to keep things moving. If we can figure out these three things in the next 12 months then I'll buy in to your analysis and conclusions:
1. Electricity supply is scaled, distributed, buffered and reliable enough to handle wide distribution of EV's outside core capital cities (renewables won't do it without significant infra and storage uplift)
2. Raw material supply needs to be more diversified. Most AU materials go overseas (primarily China) for the components to build EV's, batteries, etc. The current global political environment has made most economies risk averse toward the complexity of global supply chains. Prices will need to be a bit higher to hedge those risks. ICE vehicles have many of the same risks, but EV's introduce even more.
3. Energy portability. Perhaps if all EV's were to adopt a standard "pack" (even if it's just an "emergency" pack that RACQ could carry around with them) to swap out like an empty gas bottle, the amount of planning required to spur demand for EV's will continue to be somewhat niche.
** bonus **: Even if the availability of EV's is nearly on par with ICE vehicles...the popularity/demand for this (if you're right about it being very high) will ensure that the Australia Tax keeps their prices elevated.
My $0.02 are my own and do not reflect my company, colleagues, family, friends or pets. :)
Any kind of standardized battery pack is highly unlikely. Too much design issues including Tesla’s structural battery pack vs the competition’s designs. Just a matter of time before much more charge stations are built in Australia. But building them in the Outback has got to be a challenge not to mention along the coasts. But what do I know, I live in the US. But I have looked at the Tesla SC network map for OZ, too sparse outside of where people live.
@@Chainyanker007 There will never be standard battery packs (for main power), however, there needs to be something like a 'gas can' that can be easily transported for stranded cars that reached a bit too far. Otherwise, as EV's rise there will be a need for a lot more tow trucks (or high output diesel generator trucks). Electric charging stations require the infrastructure to supply them and we're already facing huge price hikes in electricity due to undersupply. Hopefully the super brains (or AGI) will figure it all out. :)
After over four years with my Model 3P, the only thing I can tell you is that I will NEVER EVER buy another ICE car.
NOT EVER
I was always a “petrol head” and have spent a lot of time and money working on ICE cars, and I’m over it. Done, dusted, finished!
This ^^^ Having a motor in the front and another in the rear is better in every possible way.
Same here - I've had 16 cars previously, and always did my own maintenance... never again! Once you own an EV (in my case, a Bolt), there's no desire to go back. Loving the fact that there's basically no maintenance, and "fuel" cost is much lower. Lovin' it!
I can see why it suits some people. Can you see why it doesn't suit others?
@@allosaurusfragilis7782 Yes, absolutely. There are numerous advantages with an EV, along with a few disadvantages. One of the EV weak points is towing: Although EVs tow absolutely effortlessly, it makes a very big hit to your range.
Many households like our’s are a two car family. In most two car families, having at least one EV is fabulous.
We have two cars- the Tesla which is used for probably as much as 95% of our daily driving, and a 2014 SUV which is used now ONLY for heavy towing (ie: for trailers that are too heavy to legally tow behind our Tesla). The diesel SUV is now used so rarely that I have to leave it on a 12v battery charger between uses. My wife and I both hate driving it now- it’s like going back to last century, absolutely “out of the ark”. A very regular trip that we do to visit our son costs about $12 in electricity in the Tesla (charged at home, and much less if charged from our roof top solar), but costs about $85 in diesel in the SUV- (and that’s not when towing, which would be more.) Then throw in maintenance! On the diesel it’s oil changes, engine oil, air and fuel filters, brake pads etc etc etc etc
Ignoring replacing tyres, our Tesla has cost just $80 in maintenance (just cabin filters) in over four years.
@@FutureSystem738 the tesla works well for you, I get that. My brother has one, lives in australia and can charge at home, using his extensive solar panel array. He makes enough solar electricity that the company sends him a cheque each month. So that's brilliant, I totally get why he does that.
Now, I live in scotland, on an island. Solar doesn't do much here. I can't afford a tesla. I have a small petrol car. That works for me.
Lots of people live in places they couldn't charge an electric car at home. There are no public chargers on the island. Same with most of the other islands.
The public chargi g system in uk is bad, u reliable and more expensive than petrol. Most people can't afford an electric car anyway. I could go on and on, about trucks. Ambulances, diggers etc but I'm not going to. Anyway, works for some....great.
Sodium-Ion batteries are also coming out. BYD is already building with them. We will NEVER, ever run out of sodium.
👍
Think of flat screen tvs very Expensive... Had to save up multiple paychecks to buy one now you can buy multiple in 1 paycheck
In Czech republic, we will eventually buy EVs next year.
The main reason of cheaper EVs will be reduced subsidies in Germany, that will drive prices of EVs down.
Difference is thanks to subsidy in Germany to high, Golf 20500€ : ID.3 39000€.
Doesnt subsidy mean that the tax-payers pay for it?. We had it in sweden, and it was so stupid, cause you could use it even if you wasnt a swedish citizen. So basicly you could come to sweden, buy a Tesla cheap thanks for taxpayers in Sweden, and then drive it home and sell it outside sweden for a profit. Not we dont have the rabate anymore, so the prices have gone up.
I thought Ford and GM are stopping EV production, and the lots are full of tens of thousand of unsold cars.
dont let reality stop a clickbait video. in two years we will see the same bold prediction. fail, rinse repeat, all for clicks.
The sales of compelling EVs is not declining at all. But turds are indeed not selling!
@@thejoshman3843 I actually googled some of the claims in these videos, and many of them have been true. But the way these videos are made make them very tiresome to listen to.
@@AndrewTSqI never listen. I just come here for a bit of daily humour ie the stupidity of some people, who believe all this EV nonsense.
@@robertfonovic3551Have you ever driven any EV? It seems you have no idea.
When we get to the tech to create solar panels that produce enough electricity from moonlight to run our home overnight, then the battery demand will not be an issue. 👍
Yes with pedals so we can generate more power as we watch TV 🤠
Also a gas collection system on out toilets 👍
@@padgepadgham3238Life will be bliss! 😊👍
😂
Just imagine how much electrical energy could be generated at gyms and home exercise bikes………….
Insurance costs, battery fires, and battery replacement costs will always be an issue regardless of how cheap the vehicles will become!
What 🤔 Moores Law has nothing to do with EV manufacturing, you need to rethink that one.
Agree! Note, hoping you can provide that US battery company you mentioned that has the best overall product in the world but has not scaled as of yet.
It’s called ONE.
Our Next Energy. Just googled it.
Michigan based.
@@gregp.7148 Thanks!
It's not just about making batteries for EVs, but also for residential & commercial energy storage projects to support the grid.
I think you mean economies of scale / Wrights Law, not Moore's Law. Moore's Law refers to the number of microprocessors on a chip.
If EV's keep dropping in price, I might as well wait till longer to get a better price.
There are some serious drawbacks to these EVs. I think waiting a long time for the most serious issues to be worked out is a smarter plan. They simply cannot replace ICE vehicles in the foreseeable future, no matter how adamantly they try to beat this into our brain.
why? you obviously dont have one and are envious. Ahh, maybe you want to keep paying through the nose for fuel. Lots of reasons why you have your head up your backside, hahahaha. wilful blindness is a desease.@@nicolewright8833
I guess in theory, if you wait long enough you'll get one for free. However, you may find the reality to be rather different.
The 1000lbs battery of expensive materials and the expensive motors will keep your dreams from coming true.
@@Brian-om2hh Well mobile phones get better and better, so it makes sense to wait another decade or two before you buy one.
Sam, EVs/Teslas are ALREADY cheaper than the average US CAR of $48,008.00 - Just that they will get WAY cheaper with scale.
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The average price of an Ev is significantly higher than a gas vehicle. This has been shown in many other videos. Tesla does have EV’s that are under 50,000, however, if you just wanted to get a four-door sedan with the room as much as a Tesla, you can get a Honda accord Honda Civic for nearly half the price. Also, keep in mind that the average US vehicle is going to be a large pick up truck or a large SUV. You cannot compare a basic four-door sedan to the price of a large fully loaded pick up.
It can't only be the fall in the price of lithium. At $34AU a kg it would cost $274 to purchase all the lithium in a typical EV and only $2128AU for a Tesla Model S'. EV battery has about 8 kilograms of lithium, 14 kilograms of cobalt, and 20 kilograms of manganese, although this can often be much more depending on the battery size - a Tesla Model S' battery, for example, contains around 62.6 kg (138 pounds) of lithium.
The most popular EV battery type in the world has no cobalt or manganese in it.
Insurance cost, electricity cost, grid capacity, restrictions on parking, we are not yet.
All cheaper than an ICE. No parking restrictions where I'm from.
It also makes sense to think about there are less moving parts
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Look at an engine with multiple valves per cylinder, variable valve timing, cylinder deactivation, turbocharging, etc. then be amazed at the complexity of an automatic transmission. And a lot of those parts are wearing, not just rotating. Mind boggling. electric motors are long-term reliable and dead simple, comparatively. And no transmission, the biggest point of failure in many car lines.
This is a point in favor of EVs, yes. But I still have a lot of questions regarding battery safety, longevity, disposal, and efficiency. Batteries are all chemicals. We need to get this right, rather than rush it in.
@@justaskin8523 czcams.com/video/BppLz6L3_cM/video.htmlsi=DglhoPDnrvbS4XGx
@@jamesvandamme7786Most vehicles will do high mileage without any problems as long as they are serviced correctly, reliability isn't really an issue so I can't see what your point is! In fact if EV's have fewer parts why are they so much more expensive?
Not only wil the _purchase_ cost of vehicles beb lower but the cost of _operating_ them be on the rise.
Why would the price to operate an EV rise?
@@bobwallace9753 The tires on EV's needs to be replaced around 4 times more frequent for example. I also thought service cost was supposed to be lower on EV's, but I was wrong lol. Also read about a VW ID4 owner who said the service on his EV was as much as the Tiguan he had before, but on the ev they did not change 5.5liter oil.
@@bobwallace9753 go look at the price of insurance. I also don’t need to install $1000 charger for a vehicle that I purchased. Then I sincerely hope that you don’t get into a fender bender and find out that your entire car is going to be written off and totaled out because of panels they cannot be replaced. And God forbid that there is a scratch or a dent on the battery pack, no one is going to take the liability of replacing individual cells. So that means that on an accident you need to replace the entire battery pack.
@@AndrewTSq
If people jams the accelerator to the floor frequently they will wear out the tires sooner. But if one drives 'normally' tires should last as long, if not longer.
Tire wear claims are often based on vehicle weight. Yes, if you compare the weight of a Tesla S to a Corolla the EV weighs a lot more. But a type to type comparison is not very different.
The Tesla S weighs 4,561 to 4,766 lbs
The BMW 7 weighs 4,720 to 5,095 lbs.
The Tesla 3 weighs only a bit more than the BMW Series 3.
I wouldn't make decisions on what VW or other legacy brands cost to maintain. Look at "pure EV' companies like Tesla. What I commonly see is people reporting high mileage (200k level) with no maintenance costs other than windshield wiper fluid.
Dealers screw people. It's just how they roll.
@@SlavGuns
Don't be a drama queen. Any car with serious crash damage gets written off. Insurance companies do not want the risk of a future crash that might be blamed on major structural repairs.
According to Tesla it is easier and cheaper to repair a damaged casting than a similar repair on a 'stick built' car.
Tesla battery packs are well protected from crash impact. If you get into a crash that damages the battery pack then you own a totaled car anyway.
Check Tesla insurance premiums.
Almost no one needs a $1,000 charger. Many people can do fine with a normal 110vac outlet. If you live in Europe or another place where 220vac is the standard then you're set. If you do need faster charging than a 110vac outlet provides you could either share your electric dryer outlet or have a new 220vac outlet installed for a few hundred dollars.
If you actually need a $1,000 charger then you must be a high mileage driver and should quickly save that grand via gas and oil change savings.
The big problem is where is the electricity coming from, in UK we use almost all of our generation capacity now, there is only a few percent headroom.
I agree with you Sam.
I don't think there's sufficient excess electric grid capacity, in most places, for it to happen in two years.
The grid is only fully used at the daily peak, typically early evening. Overnight, when one charges an EV typically, the grid is highly underused, as is production capacity. And, the grid has been growing several percent a year for many decades, too, having doubled in capacity twice in my lifetime, just in the ordinary course of things.
@@bearcubdaycare You think the grid is going to remain underused when every Tom, Dick and Harry has an EV? Even now in some places in the evening you can't find a vacant charging station, and if you do it isn't giving a full charge in under 5 hours. What's it gonna be like when all vehicles are EVs? You think your fancy charger you had installed at home is gonna offer you a full charge when everyone else in your street is charging their EVs? Forget it, EVs are not gonna replace ICE vehicles anytime in the next 20 or 30 years. Maybe even never.
The grid isn't designed to take such loads. Improving it to do that will take 20 or 30 years. Not to mention having to double the generation capacity of power stations.
@@mikethespike7579 Definitely never 👍
And this always seems to be left out of the conversation. Also, have you noticed our politicians keep shutting down our coal plants and telling us about the glories of wind and solar? At this point, the only possible conclusion is that they are fine with the masses taking public transport. In a country of our size, with many states in the north that would require more electricity for charging during winter, this is a mathematical impossibility.
The Limiting Factor channel has a detailed analysis of lithium supply and demand over the next years. Its conclusion wasn't an excess.
200 years to extract and refine the Copper, 9,000 years for the Lithium.
@@MrkBO8 9000 years? I read there is around 88 million tones of Lithum on earth, where around 22 million tones do make economical sense to get out of the earth. So that means we get around 2500 tones per year then? 2021, we got 107000 tones out of the earth. so at that rate it means 205 years, and if we dont care about cost its 822 years. not 9000 years. But I could be wrong.
You have to refine it, thats where the bottle neck is. There is an IMF presentation on this by Dr Simon Michaeux. Copper is more of a problem, we need about 1,000x greater production but every Copper mine has declining production. The scale of this task totally dwarfs our resource industry, ergo the switch to ev's will never happen@@AndrewTSq
There’s plenty of Lithium to go around. Norway has discovered a.
Whole dormant valcono of Lihium
Its not the supply of it, its how fast it can be refined@@AlanWilliams-su4bsCopper is a supply problem because the existing mines are already depleted, todays rate of mining it would take 200 years to dig it up.
I think you should look around GM has stopped manufacturing EVs BYD has tens of thousands of in paddocks can’t sell them Ford and GM dealerships full of EVs can’t sell them , Insurance companies are refusing to insure EVs hasn’t Tesla stocks dropped by 20% ?
Mate, I live in the country. No electric vehicle can replace an ICE engine here. The only way it will happen in two years is if it's mandated by government.
I agree totally, the prices of EVs and specially batteries will continue to come down. About the over supply, I don't know. At a certain price point it will be really interesting to invest in battery storage to level out the intermittent production from solar panels and wind turbines. And guess, the demand for batteries there is enormous. My own calculations show that if I could buy a battery storage, plug and play container, for 100$/KWh, it would be profitable in my area, just cause the price fluctuates from hour to hour. What really determines if battery storage becomes profitable is the cycle life. If you can cycle for example 5 to 95% charge once a day on average in 10 years (3650 cycles) and the battery after that time period still have 75% of original capacity, then it would be really interesting. Specially considering that it could also be possible to earn extra money to make contracts with the grid owner's to stabilize the grid (to very fast adjust the frequency)
Adding storage to residential and commercial buildings could be a wise approach to incorporating more wind and solar into our grids. All the issues with site acquisition and permitting would be avoided. Utilities could avoid needing to raise capital for storage as that would be provided by the building owner.
With smart meters already installed in many places, adding storage should be largely a plug and play job.
I expect to amortize my Powerwall in about 7 years. It has a 20 year warranty. :)
EV's have limited usefulness and I would expect them to become one half the price of ICE vehicles moving forward. They are a good option for a people who don't drive long distances and can charge at home.
@@chrishaberbosch1029 - Have you budgeted for the replacement of the batteries in that Powerwall? Sure, it has a 20 year warranty, but does that cover the batteries under all possible conditions, or are there limitations? A limitation I can think of would be that in order to conform to the warranty's expectations, a homeowner might be required to maintain a certain ambient temperature where the power wall is located. Because heat damages batteries. Almost no battery can be expected to last for 20 years; not even Lithium batteries. The NiMH batteries in my Prius lasted about 130,000 miles and 12 years. That sure ain't 20 years, and the Prius is arguably the best at making batteries last the longest. Also, what will it cost to replace them and who pays for labor?
I'm made of questions when it comes to EVs. I don't hate them, no. But we are ASSUMING that all will be happytimes for all EVs that toddle off the lot! You haven't budgeted the replacement cost/cycle of battery packs. I've seen data center UPS battery banks get replaced at a cost of $20,000 to $50,000. And those swap-outs must be done or your @ss will be in a sling if there is customer data loss due to a power outage that couldn't be bridged by the batteries. Replacing the batteries in my 12-year old Prius cost me $3500. Two years later, a touch-screen display module died and Toyota had stopped making them! Tell me, could THAT happen with some car models' EV batteries? "Oh, nobody makes that battery anymore, that manufacturer died and went to heaven for being good humans."
I am thinking that all car makers probably should get together with the IEEE and whomever else, and come up with an EV battery form factor that could be standardized across car assemblers. Or maybe better yet, make them removable and swappable by the consumer. Like that transport that took Bruce Willis's character Dallas Corbin to the vacation planet in The Fifth Element. They just swapped out the old modules with charged up modules, and the ship was ready to go!
Probably get beaten out by hybrids till the 30s because of long charging wait times and the oomph needed by the utes we love. I will probably switch once the tech is stronger, more reliable, has infrastructure support and is affordable but until then won’t be a laboratory rat.
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I would like it if you would cover the Insurance side of owning and running an EV. With chargers becoming more predominate,
that barrier to owning an EV is closing. The new blockage is the Insurance side of EV ownership.
Why don't you call your insurance broker and ask for some sample rates and see for yourself. Quite a few insurance companies are getting out of covering EVs or charging significantly more money for them.
@@harmony3138 not sure who that comment was directed to, however if you’re referring to me, I only ran an insurance agency for 15 years, so what do I know?
Do you have google? Go onto car insurance comparison sites and check prices. Are you just raising the insurance issues because you’ve read about it but not research ed reality?
My insurance for a brand new Tesla Model Y is $60 USD per month, so it's not that bad where I live.
@@harmony3138When insurance companies set a premium they are making make a bet with you when they insure your car as to how much it will cost to fix it ( or pay the owner of the building or ship it burnt down ) - insurance companies are no fools and they know EV are a high risk to insure. I do not want to see ICE drivers subsidising EV owners... like they were subsidised by taxpayers.
We need tons of batteries for photovoltaic and wind power storage. Plus industry energy demands on top for heat generation. You should see that clearly.
In only 2 years ?
More like 5 more years to see a lot more new EV car sales ,imo.
In Canada here i still don't see very many EVs.
I think it depends where you are. In BC 20% of all new car sales are EV this year. Different perspectives by province on adoption/ politics unfortunately affecting. We will all get there though :)
Going from 0 to 20% is fast. But it'll stall around 25-30% think allot of the first wave are early adopters. General public is harder to convert. Especially those living in apartments and older people who don't want to change their habits.
maybe the cold weather is the problem.
@@i6power30 Yep, I was picking a peak of 20% though and thought I was being generous with that.
With several major manufacturers signaling they're dialing back EV production, I'm sure that's the case, mate.
Fear not. Once most ICE production ceases, selling new EV's won't be a problem.
Several major manufacturers are finding that making competitive EVs is harder than they thought.
This is a good channel. Sam Evans' presentation is always interesting. Always intelligent. You go away feeling good. Keep up the good work.
Yes Sam is a true believer in the great 'Chocolate Teapot' in the sky.
Good Old Sam.
I agree. One of the symptoms is extreme demand for car mechanic jobs. This means new ice cars are not being bought and old ones need more and more repairs. As predicted. The next step is full electrification.
Buying an EV is possible in a country where electricity is not a big issue to be found everywhere. More than half of world population have issue with electricity access. Its a huge blocking point for EV market. That's why automaker will continue to build and sell ICE cars.
Save ur lunch money soon we will have a over abundance of everygdthing
Solar an batteries r very mobile
Battery production goes cheaper about 30-40% within 2-3 years , If you can imagine Tesla model 3 LR with end price under 45k USD , it will happen within 2-3 years.
That's still too expensive for a mid-sized family car.
Excellent, so I should stop looking at evs now and come back then.
@@rogerfroud300 What happend with all the talk in 2018, about the $25k Tesla? and in 2020, and in 2022 . . . . and now?
@@BMWHP2 2025. They have even announced a few factories for it, like Berlin, which they already requested permission to expand months ago. Tesla often takes longer than originally announced, but has come through on so many things...the best selling car model in the world (Model Y, having surpassed the Toyota Corolla), the semi, etc. It's a hard thing they're doing, beating the legacy carmakers at their mass production game. Few thought they could do it. But they're getting there over time, which is impressive. It can seem slow, but better that they get it right than fast. And, I can't help but note that the more recent Model Y outsells the cheaper Model 3 by a lot. If people are so price sensitive, why is this the case? Ford designed the Edsel in part due to market research that indicated a desire for an affordable car, as my father told me the cautionary tale, but it flopped. Although I think the Model 2 likely has a strong market, we should also be slightly wary of this meme of huge desire for a cheap new car. I suspect that making used EVs more desirable by making battery replacement costs more predictable, via an extended warranty, would do as much good...as I suspect that many want the extra space of, say, a Model Y, even if used, rather than a smaller new car, if the battery weren't a worry.
@@BMWHP2
Work is underway at GF Austin to start manufacturing Tesla's $25k EV. They are going to first manufacture in Austin where many of their top engineers are present and then expand to other factories.
Tesla already has a very large piece of land in Mexico where they intend to build a new plant for their economic EV. All the permits are completed. Once they have determined that the process for manufacturing this inexpensive EV is mostly ironed out they will likely rapidly build a large plant to serve North America.
Tesla has also announced that they will manufacture the $25k at GF Berlin and, IIRC, at GF Shanghai. As well, it looks like Tesla is close to working out an agreement with India to build a production plant there.
I used to live in California recently, and the infrastructure is not and will not ready in 5 years even all EVs becoming affordable.
well even tho the cars r going down the sale here in norway have slowed down a LOT. yes they sell.. stil they dont sell as they did. companies r shutting down production.
It's gonna take a lot longer for ICE sales to drop off significantly because it's going to take a while to ramp up EV production to the scale needed to replace all those ICE vehicles
EV sales are going to keep rising drastically and prices will continue to decline, but global production will take a long time to reach the needed scale
I sort of agree. But I wonder about the "long time" part. How long might long be?
Tesla can build a factory and ramp up production in a couple of years. I'm not sure Tesla has some sort of magic sauce that makes that possible. Just a corporate structure that is determined to make it happen. If a few other companies decided to imitate Tesla then we could see things move along quickly.
I don't think ICEVs will be dead in two years. But within two years it may become clear to almost everyone that ICEVs are dying. That is likely to mean that people will be reluctant to buy a new ICEV as long as their present one is adequate. There could be a very large Osborn effect that would drive sales of new ICEVs very low and cause a lot of factories to stop production.
Or people stop buying new ICE cars in greater numbers, boosting second hand sales and repairs on older ICE cars in the short term.
When we can get a Model 3 second hand for $10k we are there. But until then.. no.
@@AndrewTSq
People who buy $10k used cars have no impact on new car sales.
People looking for a good used car will be smart to pay a premium for a used EV over a used ICEV. It quite likely makes more sense to pay $15k for a decent quality EV than to pay $10k for a decent quality ICEV. That $5k is likely to be saved on fuel and maintenance over four or five years. And there's much less risk of running into a major repair cost.
Then add in the much longer usable lifespan of EVs. If you are a wise buyer you're going to pay more for a vehicle that can be expected to be largely trouble free for >200,000 miles.
Actually, I'm going to dispute my first sentence. If people are willing to pay more for a used EV than for a similar used ICEV then the resale value of ICEVs will fall. A new car purchaser will look at the higher resale value of an EV and that is going to move some to avoid ICEVs.
@@AndrewTSq It's gonna be a while before there's used EVs getting that cheap, but as more and more people are abandoning ICE for EV, used ICE vehicles are going to get cheaper and cheaper
I think it doesn't matter how cheap the batteries are, it will be car insurance for Ev's that will slow it down... Unless car companies start there own insurance, specially here in UK ...
It seems that this insurance issue is mainly a UK thing, for British reasons I do not understand... and certainly not ones linked to EVs themselves . In continental Europe, it is actually around 20% cheaper to insure an EV than a comparable ICE car!
@@st-ex8506 The reason is a few .....1. Not enough technician,'s ...2. When a car crash happens they don't know how bad the damage is.. to the battery, Which is sealed up, no matter how slight the damage may be...3. The cost of a rental car, which may take months to fix, due to the lack of parts and, technician 's ...4. Plus the advanced technology of EV's.. It seems to be advancing at great speed, will car companies still make parts for their early EV's ....
@@leedaley9354 @leedaley9354 Fixing an EV is indeed more expensive for similar damages than an ICE vehicle. True!
But EVs, at least Teslas, are half as likely to be involved in a crash to start with. Hence, insurance claims per vehicle are less, and so are the premiums... except in the UK.
So, the reasons for EV insurance coverage to go up in the UK are NOT the ones you listed. I suspect a lack of competition??? but truly, I don't know.
BTW, in the EU at least, automotive manufacturers have to supply spare parts until 15 years, if my memory serves me well, after discontinuing a model.
Also, in now several US states, Tesla is selling its own car insurance cheaper than anyone else. Is is a "loss-leader"? or is it that Tesla knows the risks of their cars getting into an accident, and costs of repair better than anyone else? I tend to believe the second explanation.
You deserve high insurance premium if an EV such as Tesla Model 3 provides camera vision all around and a display of how close you are to an object, yet you still hit it. There's no fixing stupid!
That’s odd my EV is £25 a year more than exactly the same petrol model and looking on comparison sites it seems there are plenty of low prices and plenty of high ones. You might be reading the right-wing press pushing this but it’s not the case for me and anyone else I know.
With 68% of our electricity generation still being fossils, our rejection of nuclear and the inability of renewables to provide reliable base load power along with the treatment of child miners in DRC there's no way I would buy an EV.
I don't know about Tesla sales but the car dealers I know are reporting abysmally low EV sales. Hybrid sales are good.
😂 You can't make EVs without infrastructure. Musk knew that. Others don't. Cart before the horse. Viva the Segway revolution!
How about all those commercial vehicles?
Fire Engines, ambulances, cargos trucks etc?
Delivery vans, garbage trucks, suburban buses I think are good candidates
This is great Sam!
The reason EVs are collapsing in price is due to several reasons. The primary reason is due to low demand as the reality of EV ownership hits home.
You mean like the savings per mile!? 😁
Evs are still super expensive and will remain so for years to come. If anything I'm leaning more towards another ice car rather than an ev.
Did you not watch the video .. EV prices are falling like crazy while ice vehicles prices just keep going up ...😂😂
Avg new car in U.S. is $47K. Just bought a Tesla Model Y for $48K. After tax credit it will be only $41K. You are so wrong.
@@newworldodor2641 it's specific to Ireland. And the average car loan is about 10k here according to banking data. 50k is still a small percentage of the population that can afford it but yes the prices are comparable so you are correct that if you could afford 50k on an ice car you can buy an ev for the same price. That doesn't make them affordable.
In Europe 50k € is huge. We are waiting for cars under 20 k euros. Nothing under 25 k next year. No wonder average age car is more than 10 years old
How come you never mention energy storage needs when stating your battery excess hypothesis ?
There is already over 89 million ton Lithium found, of which around 25 million ton economically minable.
That 25m would already be enough for every car on the planet today. Even without the recycling of batteries, and without the lithium deposits still discovered every year.
Storage can even better be done with Sodium batteries, weight or size are less problem with storage.
@@BMWHP2 great let’s get to it…
@@BMWHP2
I suspect the possible lithium problem is more about processing than resourcing the raw material. Looking forward to seeing how well the new Tesla lithium process works. They set up that plant really quickly. If it works as expected then it should be able to simultaneously build more plants.
A huge supply of lithium was recently discovered in Nevada.
Storage doesn’t need high energy density, sodium ion and other technologies are cheaper and work just fine for it. There is no shortage of sodium.
@@stevetodd7383storage needs high discharge and charge currents, sodium batteries are not ideal for that
What we need is an affordable EV. Most of us cannot afford a Cybertruck or big-time EVs that start at more than $50k. Here in the US, we have yet to see prices of EVs come down. While it is true that Tesla has cut the price of its entry-level cars, once you add a few extras, you can easily drive the price to well over $50k. Also, a buyer has to consider associated costs, increased insurance, higher interest rates, adding charging to one's home, or finding convenient charging points if you live in an apartment. If you remember, the entry-level Cybertruck was supposed to cost around $40k. It now costs over $20,000 more than the base model originally quoted at its debut in 2019. The same happened with the Ford Lightning. Let's face it: EVs cost more than ICE vehicles or hybrids, and no EV on the horizon can compete in price. Here in the US, if someone wants to buy an affordable basic transportation car for work and travel, you are probably not going to buy an EV. I am in total agreement with you that we need to move away from ICE vehicles of all sorts, but the average car buyer is just not going to purchase an EV at the current entry-level prices. Truth is, here in the US, there are no EVs that you can easily purchase at a $25k - $35k price point. There is no EV equivalent of a Toyota Camry.
Cost isn't the only factor. In the U.S., charging infrastructure is woefully lacking.
Remember Viking, that CATL has actually slowed their battery production, with layoffs. This was definitely to support the price of batteries, no different than Saudi oil production cuts. So glaringly obvious that the next BlackBerry is Panasonic, because Japan Inc. still rejects the future of energy disruption.
I am sure that has nothing to do with the plummeting demand either... PS BlackBerry is still alive and kicking and making money on the software side... in fact... right now just many people use BlackBerry products (in their cars) as they do iPhones. =) BlackBerry QNX. In is the control software in a ton of dashboards and vehicle components.
Anything with less usefulness than that which is currently available is going to have less value and that's true for EVs. A shakeout of EV prices is happening after all the initial hype.
If Governments don't force the sale of EV's the change will never happen.
Lithium price is only 1 reason, battery supply build out will drive the next pack price dip as the Lithium price climbs, imo.
Maybe these fluctuations in prices are also stalling people to buy EVs? In addition, the convenience of filling up with petrol is astronomical compared to public charging of EVs and like me, people wonder where will the power come from to supply these charging stations, especially if the sales of EVs increase.
I believe the costs will come down with production economies of scale and battery technology will increase but unless they are close to matching the convenience of ICE vehicles people will delay buying EVs.
Mankind will never build a power source that will come anywhere close to that giant fireball we see in the sky every day.
The radiant solar energy it delivers to a mere square kilometer of earth is approximately 1000 Megawatt (1000 Watts /sq meter solar irradiation at equator is equivalent to 1000W × 1000 meters × 1000 meters = 1000 MW per sq. km.
At that rate, and assuming 100% efficiency it would take only 742 sq km solar panels to equal the maximum EVER power demand of the continental US of 742,704 MW on 20 July 2022.
For comparison, LA city = 87,400 sq. km. So, at 100% efficiency (unlikely, yes) it would take a solar station only a hundredth the area of Los Angeles to feed the maximum EVER power demand of the US. Assuming 20% efficiency, that would still mean an area less than a 20th of Los Angeles!
Don't worry, we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of solar power exploitation yet.
There is more than enough solar power to go around for all of mankind's earth bound activities.
How much are you paid?
Many people will charge at home others at work, supermarkets or chargers installed on the street.. And what's funny is that you don't need to be there for that to happen. Just plug it and when you come back unplug.
I don't care if it needs to charge 1 hour or 4.. I'll just unplug when I come back.. Usually you'll need to charge 10%, so that's a few minutes.. I don't care about that.
@TricoliciSerghei recently saw a fast charging vehicle uptake 1 km every 2 seconds, unless you're on a long trip a 5 minute top up will be all most owners will need, the future is close...
@@JohnDoe-vm5pcVery nice to hear that, I'm 100% my next vehicle will be a BEV in a few years.
I think you should dive a bit deeper into the numbers of EV's sold in China. Just sayin'
And how many Chinese-produced EVs are spontaneously combusting, including the BYD he mentions. Sad so many are going to take his word for it and he's taking the CCPs word for it.
Great video and much to contemplate there!!
Dream on. How about how much they get subsidized? Why don't you talk about what happened with VW? As soon as they stopped subsidizing EV sales, no one was buying. Why don't you talk about all the EV's parked in lots by the thousands that they can't sell? Talk about all the EV's not selling with Ford, GM, and Tesla. Make stuff up, good job. I'm reminded of Sasquatch when seeing the host of this channel. I'm reminded of P.T. Barnum when listening to this channel. I just watched a video about all the EV companies putting EV production investment on hold.
I was wondering if you can do me a favor and explain how they mine the resources for these magical batteries. By the way, EV battery plants are also being put on hold.
In the United States in particular, who knows what the political scene will look like after this next election and who knows if the winning party will be one that wants to promote electric cars or not? That’s what makes me wonder if someone will get in there that pulls back on the reins and says no, we’re gonna promote ICE cars for as long as we can. 🤷
with Biden no one will afford a EV, thats for sure :)
You definitely need Trump as President or your country will be knackered. 😊
@@robertfonovic3551 They maybe dont need Trump, but they need anyone else than Biden. (and I am from sweden, and its always when USA have a weak leader, rest of the world has to suffer, that is why we need to get someone else than Biden)
@@robertfonovic3551 Knackered? 🤔 Isn’t Trump against electric vehicles and processes?
I wish they would pull all subsidies from gas and oil industry and EV industry. Because then gas would be $10 a gallon and everybody would switch to EVS faster.
There are many underdeveloped countries that don’t have enough infrastructure to keep a refrigerator running for a full 24hrs. ICE vehicles will be around longer than you would think because of that.
They will build more coal plants to supply the grid just like China. CO2 emissions will increase not decrease because of EVs
but those countries dont make vehicles, and they cant afford new vehicles. they will slowly die out.
It is so much easier to build a power plant, run hundreds of miles of electrical lines, build oil refineries, build gas stations, and import oil than it is to build solar panels and plug them into a car.
@@i6power30 Hahahaha Yea, spend millions instead of thousands! That is your plan! Great plan!
In those countries...
Which country do you live in ...😂😂
Edit. and will you move to one of these countries in order to be able to drive an ice car in the future...😂😂😂
Sam you should fix your mic. In your latest videos it sounds like you bump in to it all the time.
We need batteries for grid storage, trucks, building equipment, farming equipment, and ships.
If the price is right.....
So, when batteries are cheaper for ships, the cars would be 2x cheaper?
So, we all have an EV. Just like everyone else in the street, we come home from work, switch on heating or aircon and plug in our EV. Where do you think all this electricity is going to come from? Our electricity grid is currently unable to handle the load on a hot day. What do you think will happen when millions of households plug in a 7-20KW charger?
Easy. A select elite group will get to have cars and the rest of us can walk.
It will be fine if every household have installed solar panels and home batteries to cater for the EV. But I do not believe that will be feasible in near future!
Been hearing about this impending crash of the grid for years now. When is it going to happen?
@@patty109109 When they stop building new power plants, wind farms, and solar, and stop upgrading the grid continually.
@@patty109109 Hopefully the Minister For Blackouts will wake up one day and do the simple calculation. The Australian electricity network cannot support 20 million EVs. Government policy will then switch to taxing EVs and supporting small ICE vehicles.
EV’s will have to half in price for that to happen
Tonylee, if you have not noticed ICE prices are rising fast. Toyota Corolla is $28k where I'm at. Was not that long ago that they were $12k.
@@PC-vq5ud Vw id3s are 41k new they’re supposed to be equivalent to a golf 😳. Base model Golf is 21k
No way this will happen in 2 years Sam. There will certainly some models at parity but relatively there will still be a massive amount of ICE cars being produced. Eventually this will happen but you’re being far too optimistic - I’d estimate 5 years.
The problem with EVs in Texas is they are too tethered to charging station. Its a big state. Also, EVs have a short towing range. In the U.S. there is a 100 day supply of unsold EVs.
For around town EVs are great as you can charge at home, but in the US there are not enough charging spots. In some places people are waiting in lines to get a charge spot for 30 mins to “fill up”. As soon as existing gas stations have chargers that would change but it’s far off.
Fortunately, battery tech keeps getting smaller, faster charging, larger charge capacity, etc. We're just a 3-5 years away from EVs getting FAR more "per gallon" than ICE cars. 6-7 years and you'll be able to drive across the country on a single charge.
You're confusing all other EVS versus tesla. Tesla's have no problems charging, there's chargers everywhere. Tesla's are actually far easier to use than a gas car, I know since I have both. Taking care of my gas car is a PITA. the Tesla is easy it needs no maintenance. Just charge it at home twice a week, easy.
@@monkeysuncle2816 But not by 12-15 months in 2025. As soon as I can pull into a QT or Loves on the highway and get a sandwich and a drink while I charge without waiting I’m in.
@@jeffgreenwaldJLG we could be there in no time with solid state battery tech.
@@monkeysuncle2816 when that arrives I’m in. LOL
Until I charge for + 450km range in 5 minutes then NOT interested, I live in old apartment
Which would you choose today for batteries. sodium Ion or Lithium ioin. I am thinking both of a fire safe battery, easier charging, and lasting time in charges of both units before replacements are needed.
Also how much would it cost to refurbish a tesla with lithium batteries and how much to do the same with sodium ones?
Hope this spans another good video.
Thanks for any answers.
I have a "Short range EV" (30 miled) / "Long Range ICE" vehicle - a Hybrid Plug-in.
Only have 110v charging in my apartment complex parking. In an emergency, I don't yet trust our Public Road Charging Network. And if/when in the future we have enough Public "Reliable" Charging Facilities, I don't believe we are even close to having an electrical grid that can support even 25% Vehicle Market share.
I'm in California and don't have to worry about yearly Blizzards, Hurricanes, and Tornados.
Even if we had no EV production / battery /cost issues , we have an electrical grid problem that is not a short-term fix. Unless I'm missing somethinb
Keep on rocking, Sam. :)
@@vincecarloNah. Cows and horses were 100 years ago. Grid has been upgraded 6% per year for decades and if you talk to grid operators they’re planning accordingly. Saudi Arabia tax on the other hand is 🐄
No matter how much cheaper batteries get, there will still be places where going all-electric won't make practical sense due to deficient charging infrastructure and people just not wanting to make 20+min charging stops (likely longer since cheaper EVs likely won't get 350+kW charging any time soon) multiple times on trips (and even more of that multiple on cheaper EVs with smaller batteries) that can be done on a single 3min fill-up, maybe two. Where I am in Canada, Dec-March averages -5C and half of the fast-charging power I'd put in an EV at 4-5X the domestic power rate would get used for heating, not particularly appealing when charging at home (apartment) is not an option and unlikely to become one.
Charging infrastructure can be established literally everywhere a car can be driven
Pauses are very normal, most people cannot drive more than a few hours before needing a break. You will need a car with 50% more range than your bladder
Norway is very cold, they have no issues with electric vehicles
BEVs are getting cheaper every day, ICE cars are getting more expensive every day
People don't take 50 minutes to go to the bathroom. On a recent trip from PA to Tennessee, I needed to stop for 30 to 45 minutes every 2 hours to recharge. One of the stops needed to be close to an hour because the Tesla Supercharger was sooooo damn slow. 50kw max. As far as "infrastructure can be established literraly anywhere a car can be driven..." Sure... middle of Alaska? Middle of the road in the desert between Las Vegas and LA? lol. They are not going to be running power to many of those places and if they do set one up, it will be powered by gas generators. @@casperhansen826
My bladder dictates my stops so o try to plan ahead. I don’t need more than 100 Kw charging speeds.
@@casperhansen826 EVs may be getting cheaper but the cheapest ICEV I can get is still 10k$ cheaper than the cheapest EV of remotely comparable range even after EV subsidies.
I have a friend who lives near Ottawa. I can do the whole Montreal-Ottawa roundtrip on about 30L of gas. Doing the same trip in a Bolt EV requires two charging stops taking about 1h30 combined during which the other friend I brought along for the trip ate over $20 in snacks each way. Most chargers along both the north and south shore routes only do 50kW max, meaning a faster-charing EV than the Bolt wouldn't have made the trip meaningfully faster. Had it been colder weather, a third charging stop could have become necessary due to heating and that would have made the trip more expensive than gasoline on top of taking 2h longer.
lol. So you drive a Bolt? And guessing you are not on a timeline? You think stopping to charge for an hour every 2 hours is okay? Perhaps if you are 70 and don't need to be somewhere at a particular time, however this is totally impractical for majority of buyers who need to go on a long trip, etc. I had a bolt for an entire 5 days until it went back. The charging speeds were abysmal. WE do a few big road trips per year... what takes 8 with gas takes 10 to 12 with EV. Not acceptable. @@AlanWilliams-su4bs
Batteries are not only for cars! The most important demand will come from grid storage. Without that solar and wind are basically worthless because uncontrollable.
THis demand will be a 2-digit multiple compared with cars, possibly more!
The word commonly used in the industry is "dispatchable".
In Texas for the last five years all new filling stations are gas and diesel. No charging stations at any of the stations. Until the electrical grid is upgraded we don’t have the option. Also insurance companies are starting to refuse to pay if one has a electrical car.
Thank your state legislature that is owned by the oil and gas industry.
BYD as a battery maker benefit most from technical breakthroughs and new materials like Sodium Ion. Fossil fuel prices remain high and could go higher??
Fossil fuel prices will continue to increase for several reasons - 1. locating and extraction are becoming increasingly difficult and expensive as the easy to access sources have already been exploited 2. As the market share of gasoline cars diminishes, and as the gasoline engines themselves become ever more fuel efficient, there’s less demand for gasoline, but the production costs haven’t dropped. Net result is increasing gas prices. And every EV on the road accelerates this process.
Compounding this, the lithium and other precious metals in batteries are recyclable, so the extraction eventually becomes only what is needed to increase the number of batteries in existence or the small amount, roughly 10% lost to the recycling process. A bit obvious to say, but gasoline isn’t recyclable so doesn’t enjoy the benefits of the circular economy.
Hence the reason that gasoline companies are throwing every bit of nonsense they can at the public, from denying the human component accelerating the natural deglaciation / global warming trend to denying the health risks associated with burning fossil fuels, to scaremongering about the mining of rare earths. Somehow they were never really worried about the environmental effects or child labour used in coal mining, but when it comes to mining rare earths for batteries it is a top concern. Which was barely an issue heard of in the headline news when the batteries were for cell phones and other consumer electronic devices, but now is a huuuuge problem. The hypocrisy of the fossil fuel industry is beyond staggering.
EV prices might go down, but they are still atleast 3 to 4 times too expensive for normal people.
What is the price you are saying "normal people" can afford? Just curious.
@@ronin4580 If you are young, just getting a child, I would say around $10k for a used car. (can add average income here is less than $30k a year after tax)
Fixing the old car is the best investment you can make
Personally I'd say 25 to 35k but that's just me. @@ronin4580
A new model 3 right now costs $30k after tax credits. You think they should be $7500-10,000 for a new one?
Is this the end of the sodium battery? Lithium can store more energy than sodium just because of where it is on the periodic table.
If Lithium continues to tank then the reason to change to sodium is drastically reduced.
Sodium batteries will, at similar production capacity, always stay cheaper than lithium ones. It is not only a question of the price of the resource, but also of technology. They are also anticipated to have a longer life (number of cycles), and to be safer. So, they will have an important share of the market, no matter what.
Apparently ev Sales are decreasing and large stockpiles are developing as people.are starting g to reject the extreme inconvenience and maintenance
costs of ev are expensive. Also there is a direct corolation between lithium prices and ev. It is called supply and demand less ev sales less lithium required . price decreases
Blackberry was made obsolete because the competitors were better. EVs are worse than ICE cars. I own an EV. I love it, but it is not as good as an ICE car, in price or convenience.
This is not always accurate. A model 3 new right now rwd is the same cost as a well equipped Corolla, after credits. With 95% of our charging at home and the supercharger network I have not found it at all less convenient than an ICE.
At this point, EV ownership is 7%. And there's enormous doubts about buying an EV. So ,2 years seems a little soon. And that's assuming a better option doesn't present itself
Compare 2023 with 2013. What a Change. EV Cars everywhere. Its Normal. Numbers Up, Prices Down. EV Cars Cheap Easy Clean. 👍🙂☀️☀️☀️
Seems to be trending in the opposite direction , people don’t want EV’s