Why Hasn't Housing Crashed?
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- čas přidán 14. 07. 2024
- During COVID, home values rose to unbelievable heights. When rates skyrocketed higher in 2022, many believed housing values had to crash. Yet, that has not happened? Why not?
Steven Thomas with Reports On Housing reveals why the housing market has not crashed so far and where it is headed from here.
👉🏼"Housing Debrief" - Season 5, Episode 2👈🏼
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Sponsored by Kevin Kaltenbach, the Reverse Mortgage Specialist at Senior Financial Group, Inc., (949) 910-0932.
*The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. This is not investment advice.
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Clear, concise and just the best way to start my day off at the home office! I also thought it was funny how off to the right CZcams recommended the "click bate" video titled, "do not buy a house!" Bad CZcams!!!
Seriously! We are trying to bring FACTS, and they promote FICTION. LOL
Problem is, they are not reporting houses available for sale accurately, especially new built houses are being grossly under reported as available. Secondly, sellers are offering pay downs of mortgages and additional costs to buyers and this is not being reported as lowering of prices, again, especially in new homes. If you don't have the actual numbers, you have graphs that don't mean anything!
The number of available homes is accurately tracked. You are referring to new homes versus residential resale. Even new homes, which we did not talk about, have a low level of completions. It is at its pre-COVID levels. Many get confused because a lot is under construction, or pemitted, and construction has not started. That is what is often referred to as underreported supply. Yet, residential resale is far below 2019 levels.
New builders are buying down the interest rates, but that is not happening with residential resale. Reports On Housing tracks all aspects of the economy, including new homes. However, our lane is residential resale, and that is precisely what we are referring to.
There is no bubble or looming crash in the residential resale arena. It is the same for new homes.
You mean to say that the availability of newly built houses does not affect the value of resale housing? Wow! Try looking at Travis at "Real Estate Mindset" who traveled to many markets to see on the ground the lack of reporting of unsold new houses. Don't believe my lying eyes, I guess.
Both Travis and Nick Gerli have NO economic background and are permabears rooting for the demise of housing for years. They have steered countless Americans in the wrong direction and many have lost out on cashing in on low rates and rising values. They have both flown out to new home builder lots and have lied about the truth on the ground. I personally witnessed it in Rancho Mission Viejo.... fabricated lies. They were NOT giving away homes and unable to sell their product. Builders confidence has been through the roof. Builder profits are huge. Stocks are doing well. The lack of residential resale sales and low inventory has resulted in more sales for new builds, the only other alternative. The inventory levels of completed product matches pre-COVID levels, which is still very low. FACTS. That is what we deliver. Travis and Nick fall victim to click-bait tactics because that is how they make their livings. Being negative all the time has to get old after a while.
Great job today Steve
very natural easy to follow prezentation
Thanks, Robert!
When rent is 1/2 a mortgage, bad things happen.
When rates fall, affordability will improve. If what you are saying is a fact, it will show up in the data in the form of more inventory and a collapse in home values. Unfortunately, the US housing stock is at a unique crossroads: the healthiest, strongest housing stock in US history with locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgages VERSUS extreme unaffordability. I just do not see an easy way out of this mess other than rates dropping.
"...Labor market is in an extremely good spot..."
Labor is pumping on all cylinders. I think it is great.... the FED is having issues with it.
18.6 year cycle peak expected 2026.
That's funny!! There is no such thing as precise cycles. Everyone talks about the 10-year cycle. The 18.6-year cycle is actually up 14 years, down 4 years, but it is just not accurate. There are phases to every cycle. We are still waiting for the HYPER SUPPLY phase. I don't see that coming anytime soon.
So Rates are gonna come down and Demand is gonna go up…. Sure, good luck pal
It is fascinating how so many ignore basic economics. Yes, with the huge demographic patch of millennials and Gen Z, who have been unable to purchase due to higher rates, they are going to pounce on housing when rates drop. Yes, demand will rise. If we are totally off base, please let us know your thoughts?
@@ReportsOnHousing Current demand for homes is lower than it was in the GFC. New homes continue to be built, but demand has not increased and we’re still not in a recession. The only way rates will come down is if we have a recession. But when that happens people get laid off and have no money to buy homes. So lowering rates won’t send demand to the moon. No. The only solution is for prices to come down. That’s when you’ll see real demand go up. Until then, flatline.
That's simply not how rates work. There are economic headwinds that will slow down the economy and lead to rates dropping. We are not talking a job loss recession. Spiking credit card debt, low consumer savings rates akin to 2009, the depletion of excess savings from COVID relief, climbing credit card/automobile loan delinquencies, are all headwinds that will lead to less consumption and a drop in GDP from its sizzling path in 2023. But not a recession. Instead it will be a slowdown. The FED is overly restrictive with their Fed Funds Rate and they will have to cut. That cut will result in lower rates. The labor market will only weaken a bit. Lower rates will substantially increase buyer demand. Time will tell who is right. But lower rates will substantially improve home affordability, increasing the pool of potential buyers.
@@ReportsOnHousing Japan and England are already in Recession. But you’re right. Recessions and rate cuts never go hand in hand. 🙄 I’m sure people with all that credit card debt will have plenty of money to buy overpriced homes
Only 2 of the last 6 recessions realized a loss in housing prices: the S&L crisis of the late 80's with the recession that started in 1991, and the Great Recession. Both were caused by bad lending practices... real estate. The other four were not real estate related and values went up. Housing is typically the economic engine that pulls the U.S. out of a recession. This time is lining up to be the same (even though a recession is not currently in the cards).
Because it wont.
Exactly!