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What are you talking about? Let's have a healthy discourse where you explain why you do not agree with something that was stated specifically. We always keep an open mind.

@@katysmith5506 our intent is to properly set expectations if you’re looking to own a home or currently own a home. There is a laundry list of issues. Our focus is housing. We have mentioned many times before how it is getting harder and harder and further out of reach for so many Americans to purchase a home. We have even offered solutions to building more affordable housing. However, we do not set policy.

Home prices are set by buyers and sellers. Even with a reduction in commissions, sellers will NOT pass those savings along to buyers. They want to pocket as much money as possible upon selling.

@@Michael-kx7im, yet a housing crash is not on the horizon.

@@Zzzc954, I guess you are looking for a housing crash. If we ever see it in the numbers, then you will like us.

@@ReportsOnHousing why would I want a crash? I’m a Realtor. But people like you telling poor buyers this is normal, they should overbid and prices will continue to rise then if and when the market significantly drops. You would say ohh no one saw it coming just like what happened in 2008. Your only valid point is inventory is low yes we UNDERSTAND, you come out and say the same thing every time but what you are missing is inflation is effecting everyone buyers and sellers.and sure they can keep borrowing and drag the inevitable but ultimately people must sell because the only way out of debt is home equity. And guess what? As an agent I see you all the time in the past 2 years. Any slight increase in inventory results in longer DOM or price drop. So in my opinion even 10% increase in inventory will result in a massive drop and at that point even fewer people would be able to buy due to inflation. Historically the main reason to buy is the monthly payment is the same as the monthly rent and we will get back to that sooner or later. I’m happy to debate you live and discuss further.

When did we state that people should overbid for properties? At Reports On Housing, we set expectations and give facts and data. When rates down the road fall, the market will heat up, demand will rise faster than the number of homes coming on the market, and home values increase faster. We explain why that is the most likely outcome. YET, we strongly feel it would be an unhealthy outcome for housing. I have 9 kids who are going to have a hard time purchasing. However, that does not stop the market dynamics from playing out how we described. In properly setting expectations given today's data, people can make mature decisions and decide what is best for them. We are not pushing narratives. If I had my way, we would see a better balance between supply and demand so that values would stop escalating and that no overbidding would occur. Regarding supply and demand... of course, we are going to bring it up. Housing has so much to do with both supply and demand. We have been discussing the lack of supply for years, and it has been extremely problematic. The GOOD NEWS this year is that more homes are coming on the market, and they are accumulating over time. That is a healthy step towards correcting the imbalance, and the extra homes will be needed when demand picks up down the road with falling rates. For now, the inventory is increasing, and the rise in values is slowing. This is a good thing. The only problem is that there are far too few transactions taking place. Values are holding. Many potential buyers cannot buy because prices and rates have put purchasing out of bounds. So, they wait for prices or rates to fall. They may get values to come down a bit later this year, but the eventual drop in rates will help a lot more. We need more inventory. There will be more homes that come on from struggling homeowners, but most will do whatever they can to keep their homes and their locked-in low-fixed rate payments. We are even more concerned for middle-class and below renters suffering from rising rents and prices for everyday household goods. Let's have a debate. How about next Thursday?

@@CA.R.E., you are welcome!!

Cash Buyers.

San Diego is turning into a white collar city. Skilled income will start to increase significantly as more Tech/ BioTech companies move to San Diego.

SOOOOO MANY PEOPLE FLOODING THE USA, THEY GOTTA HAVE SOMEWHERE TO GO.

@@marcusedvalson, until rates fall, only those with the capital and incomes to support these high values and rates will be able to purchase.

@@user-pd3ve2vk8v, thanks! 🙏🏼

Thanks!

Thank you for your caring comment. My wife and I are already on a health diet and see a nutrionist. That is not new. I have a pretty amazing team around me. Thank you for your caring comment.

All of your comments are on point. Yet, we just don't see a retraction in housing.

They very well could. The longer they wait, the higher the risk that they will further erode the economy down the road.

Thanks for watching!

You bet!!!👍🏼

A definite possibility that they wait until November. In our opinion, it will be too late and will cause a further slowing to the economy by waiting too long.

It will bring rates down and start to thaw a frozen housing market.

You bet! It is all about helping set expectations.

While the CPI print was a positive report showing inflation dropping, it's the inflation index that most economists turn their noses to. The shelter component is broken and is a giant piece of CPI. The measurement of rents is artificially high due to its underlying survey it relies upon, Owner Equivalent Rent (OER). The preferred measure of inflation is PCE, which is much closer to the arbitrary 2% target (only dates back to 2012). CPI gets all the fanfare, but economists look to PCE, the FED's preferred index. The recent buildup in inventories is a step in the right direction as it will be a buffer from the housing market getting too hot too quickly as soon as the economy breaks and rates drop to the low 6s. Anemic, low levels of homes available will return to their prior lows.

@@ReportsOnHousing I would agree CPI is "one" of the data points the Fed and other economist use to help guide their decisions. The point I am making is "Shelter" is on of the culprits keeping inflation high and thus keeping the interest rates guidance flat or not lowers. I see way too many CZcamsrs talking about housing and messaging "All will be back to normal" when the mortgage rates come back down or that inventories are sky-rocking without any "normal market context" (i.e. pre-Covid). According to NAR, house prices have increased by +40% between 2020-2022 (artificial increase as no tangible property values justified increases) and home rentals increased annually by +8% during the same period so any trend references post 2020 for comparing to a normal market are skewed. Home inventory levels have unfortunately been low, but we are still far from the nationwide levels during the normal period. Its easy to have historic inventory level increases when we were at historically low levels to begin with. Again you can not use the "old" 2-year look-back. I would suggest using a variety of public available data sources to better help your audiences see the "whole picture". You might consider using the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) combined with Redfin/Zillow to source existing home data and the FRED and HAHB, Hud, Fannie/Freddie for new home data. You can look into A bubble/anomaly occurred and we have to treat it as such and find the historical trend line to extrapolate where we should be. Home prices are still +30% out of normal in most markets. Housing prices are currently one of the key factors effecting inflation in a negative manner. The other unmentioned comment that many people miss is in Powell's new conference he again mentioned that the Fed was limiting/reducing its mortgage buyback which will put more pressure on the lending industry resulting in them holding rates higher. So the bottom line is fairly clear to see, the housing market will not return to long-term stability (aka normal market) until home affordability returns. Of course house inventory, specifically new construction, is a substantial part of this equation, but home price is equally important and again as mentioned in the prior points, Home prices (whether buying or renting) is one of the top contributors to keeping inflation above the Feds's target resulting in higher interest rates. Home price will need to come down before rates come down.

@@ReportsOnHousing Fine, lets talk PCE, if you look at the PCE #s they will reflect the same theme I am referencing in the PCI. Housing accounts for the top contributor of pushing the PCI to the 2.7 number which is well below the target of 2. As mentioned both of these impact the Fed's guidance for deciding to raise or lower rates. Home Prices have a substantial impact on both of these data indicators. We will not be able to see the interest rates lower until home prices decline to normal historical trend lines (i.e. ~20% median home price decline). I find it ignorant for people to be discussing home mortgage rates trends without considering the larger picture.

PCE now at 2.6% and falling. It's now all about jobs. If jobs drop, it will pave the way for the cuts WITHOUT home prices falling. Stay tuned!

@@ReportsOnHousing PCE falling ? We wont really know this for sure until we see the next report cycle. These numbers have been bouncing for the past year so no real up or down trend yet. I'd suggest people get off the interest rate band wagon and focus on the other drivers for home affordability with Home Price being the elephant in the room. Go pull data from RedFin, FRED, Zillow, etc and you will clearly see the +40% home price increase from 2020-2022. Record low interest rates allowed people to afford (well kinda) a home they typically could not afford which in turn drove the Home prices higher. With monthly shelter costs surpassing 25% of monthly income measure we now see the highest number of "house poor" homeowners in history. Lower the rates coupled with lenders rekindling the "special loan packages" we are heading for some real fun. I saw an interesting interview with Melody Wright (BFSI industry veteran, Melody currently focuses on mortgage FinTech and macroeconomics) where she highlighted issues with builder hiding inventories as well as the increasing distress in private mortgages (not under regulatory watch nor Fed reporting). Not sure how this will play out, but there seems to be something rotten in Denmark.

We enjoy diving into all the numbers and properly setting expectations.

Thanks!! 🙏🏼

The government is not buying houses. The California Dream For All only helps about 1,500 buyers, a drop in the bucket compared to the overall number of sales. It is a program that runs out of funds quickly and is equivalent to winning the lottery for those buyers who actually secure one of these loans. It has been survival of the fittest for years, you can tell by looking at the credit profiles of purchasers in California and across the US.

Not until 2008. The data lines showed the inevitable crash as early as the fall of 2005. Data lines are slow moving and it is not hard to see developing slowdowns and cracks in the market.

@ReportsOnHousing The term, "the great recession" is commonly understood to refer to the market crash of 1929 and the subsequent years into the late 1930's of stagnant economic growth. This reference perhaps should be 'the great crash' or the 'housing market collapse, 🤔?

@@mbukukanyau, the Great Recession is the economic downturn from 2007 to 2009 resulting from the popping of the US housing bubble and global financial crisis. What you are referring to is known as the Great Depression.

@@ReportsOnHousing I understand now

We love setting the record straight.

There run up in values was HUGE because of the supply and demand mix. Texas, Florida, and Idaho are home to the largest increases in supply due to rapid appreciation. They were all the hottest areas in the country during COVID through 2023.

We are not political, yet agree that the government has added to the heat in the jobs report, but they are not propping up economy. The US consusmer has been keeping the economy robust. You can see it in all the data.

It is! You are observant. The old one was having connection issues.

Thanks!

Thanks, Olaf!

It is so important to price properties properly according to their condition, location, and amenities. Needing to reduce the asking price is equivalent to throwing away equity.

In this type of market, price reductions indicate overzealous sellers who do not price appropriately. As the inventory rises, pricing is crucial to finding success. It is not a buyer's market with prices falling.

We LOVE what we do! Thanks for the feedback.

It is our pleasure!

Thanks, Olaf!

Thanks!

Thanks!

As a consumer, your best bet is to interview agents to isolate a professional with a track record of proven results: recommendations/reviews, sales-to-list price ratios, excellent communication skills, systems of success, and not being afraid to tell their client what needs to be done to secure the highest net proceeds (repairs, necessary upgrades, etc.).

We respectfully disagree. Rates have EVERYTHING to do with home affordability-it is not just high prices. The correction you allude to is not in the near or mid-term horizon. You have to look at supply channels and trends. The trend is for a limited supply. It will be hard for the supply of available homes to rise as long as Millennials are on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall. When rates do come down a bit, as the economy cools, buyer demand will accelerate faster than the number of homeowners that come on. As a result, values will rise further. Stay tuned!

@@ReportsOnHousing Again, the data does not support your perspective. The correction needed is a result of artificially inflated pricing not a result of added value or low interest rates, so its a straight forward correction of bringing home prices back in line with historical trends. Would you be so kind as to point us to the source of data you sight for all the "millennials waiting on the sideline". It would be good to see how many and what their current economic situation is. Have you looked at the recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York sighting record levels of consumer debit and the increasing levels of defaults? Oddly the generation which account for the majority of in trouble borrowers seems to be the very same Millennials you are waiting for. We doubt anyone wants to see a repeat of 2008 which if we recall correctly had a lot to do with lenders giving people loans, at attractive rates, when they really could not afford the home price to begin with. We totally agree with your statement that limited housing inventories is one of if not the most crucial element of our housing crisis, but the 2020-2022 bubble is the here and now issues that has derailed our historical trends. Again we point you to factual data listed in the prior comment (i.e. FRED). We would wager that home sales would more significantly and rapidly increase if home prices were rolled back to the historical price trends (ie.25%-35% decreased) vs maintaining the current home prices trends with mortgage rates at or below 4%.

@@michaelsd284, who said that prices have to fall back within trend given the different supply and demand levels? National inventories are just above 1 million. During the Great Recession and prior it was at 4 million. Normal is 2.5 million. That’s data. There is a new normal, low inventories that will prevent the price reduction to the trend line that you are talking about. Thus, a new trend emerges, expensive housing that will only become more affordable with falling rates. Stay tuned! Time will prove out the correct long term trend line, the old one or the new one.

@@ReportsOnHousing Spoken like a true realtor. Best of luck to you and glad you have this CZcams side hustle to supplement your income.

I am the chief economist of Reports On Housing and do not represent buyers or sellers. I have a Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences degree from the University of California, San Diego. I am a housing analyst, which is how I make a living. We are devoted to bringing TRUE, accurate data, the latest evolving trends, demographics, and everything else surrounding housing. We have housing reports for all of SoCal, the Bay Area, Clark County (Vegas), and Maricopa (Phoenix), and we know the housing market inside and out. We do not believe in pushing a narrative like so many other channels. There are plenty of doomers prophesizing a crash in housing who have been wrong for YEARS now. That is only because they do not have an economic background; instead, they have found a platform to promote their negative narratives. Their negativity sells, which is why they can make a living with their videos, even if they have been consistently wrong. We talk about the positives and negatives of the housing market. There have been plenty of cracks, and the market has often been unhealthy. It appears that that is the direction of housing when rates fall, an unhealthy housing market with rising values. In the fall of 2005, we saw a build-up in inventory and a drop in demand. We knew the market was going to crash and correctly called it. In 2006, the U.S. housing market slowed even more with a further rise in inventory and a drop in demand. There were NO surprises. That's how housing works. Housing is not a commodity traded on Wall Street that can drop instantly. It is slow-moving and leaves plenty of breadcrumbs, trends, and signals. The crash sites have it all wrong and will continue to be wrong for the foreseeable future. The housing stock, all homes across the U.S., is at its healthiest, strongest point in U.S. history. Collectively, homeowners have excellent credit, great jobs, record tappable equity (tap their equity and still have 80% LTV), record equity rich (50%+ equity), record owners who own their homes free and clear, and fixed low rates that are an excellent hedge against rising rents and inflation. Delinquency rates are at historical lows, and BK's are at decade lows. For there to be a significant rise in supply, you need for homeowners to be forced sellers. There are very few forced sellers. It is all about facts and definitely has nothing to do with name-calling.

Thanks!!

Thanks!

Thank you and we will get that over to you momentarily!

Thank you!

It has been unusual times ever since the start of COVID. Charts have not looked "normal" across the board.

I hear your point, and it is a great point. However, the FED does not have control over fuel and food. That is why the inflation prints release headline and core numbers. When OPEC decides to cut production, there is nothing that the Federal Reserve can do to curb its impact. Similarly, when the bird flu impacts egg prices, there is nothing that the Federal Reserve can do. Economists know that the shelter index is making its way down to normal levels (RENTS), which is why economists look at the inflation indices removing the shelter component. It tells us where inflation is headed. Unfortunately, higher prices for everything across the board are here to stay. When experts refer to inflation coming down towards 3%, or the long-term arbitrary goal of 2%, it is still calling for prices to go up slightly. The big misconception that is out there is that the general public believes that once inflation is "fixed," prices will come down. That is deflation and is disastrous for the economy. In time, the general public will be able to absorb the higher prices as wages and salaries not only keep up with inflation but exceed it. And the U.S. consumer has been extremely resilient. Consumption has been robust, which has propped up the economy.

@@ReportsOnHousing Thanks for the reply. It seems like the economic forecasting and understanding of the US economy in specific is based on trends seen since WW2. I am curious if you are familiar with either Ray Dalio's work on "The Changing World Order" or the ideas in the book "The Fourth Turning"? How might those once in a century trends change or affect these models we are making predictions on? Specifically the world reserve currency status of the American dollar. It seems to me that a lot of our models are based on the assumption that will continue. It feels a lot like a house of cards that can't stand forever. Do you have any general thoughts on this?

@@marcusedvalson, I have argued that we are in uncharted waters. Economists and experts like to look backward and compare now to a specific time. I have heard post WW2, the 60s, the 70s, the 80s. In other words, this is the first time we have been here. I am VERY familiar with Ray Dalio and Neil Howe's work. They are just as wrong as the other economists and experts trying to peg now to the past. We are charting a new course. We have not been here before because of the added significant variables of the Internet, smartphones, AI, and the shrinking globe. I much prefer looking at the trendlines and reporting on what they are telling us, rather than projecting a narrative based on the past.

@@ReportsOnHousing I think it would be foolish try to peg now to an exact time in the past. But to my understanding the whole study of economics is about examining how the mechanisms of economies work; which is why we can build models and theories of business cycles, etc. It would be impossible to study the machine of economics without looking at how it has run in the past. All machines run by repetition of a cycle, some long, some short. I of course don’t know what will happen, but when I see the breakdown of models (as has been noted on your channel), it sounds an awful lot like what ray talks about in the later stages of a world power’s bell curve. Things stop making sense in terms of models, and it is just watching what is happening right now; which is what it sounds like you do. It is a wild time to be alive, but I appreciate content like yours trying to make sense of it all.

@@marcusedvalson, very well said. It’s trying to figure out a path based on all the variables. We listen to everybody’s view, regardless of how contrarian it appears, analyze it, and then utilize what we can for our model and for what makes sense. These times are fascinating. COVID was an enormous disrupter that affected just about every chart. It will be interesting to watch how it all plays out.